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View Full Version : An alternative east Balkan early location for M269* and L23* (perhaps steppes before)



alan
06-07-2013, 10:32 AM
I want to keep an open mind on this alternative. A great deal of speculation and resarch based on the apparent higher variance in and around Anatolia has never entirely led to me convincing myself that M269 or L23 originated there. Its possible that the high variance there is a red herring. Anatolia is after all an early farming zone as was the adjacent parts of Iran, Mesopotamia etc. It just doesnt fit the lack of R1b doing much until 4 or 5000BC. That position just does not look right for a haplogroup that were doing nothing much in the Neolithic. Linking it with metallurgists does not really remove this problem. It still leaves its apparent Neolithic doldrums unexplained.

L51* is not the son of L23XL51 (Z2105+/Z2103+) but a brother or parallel line. I have kind of closed my eyes to that fact because it complicates things and makes the L51 story even more unknowable but its undeniable. I can no longer see the logic in trying to ignore this fact and if Mjost's calculation is correct then L51* and L23XL51 (Z2105+/Z2103+) may have co-existed for much of their existence. Given the contrasting distribution, possibly largely contemporary chronology and given the sibling nature of the two lineages rather than father-son relationship, it makes more sense to see them as separate phenomenon or at least two brances of the same phenomenon.

I noticed that in the new Italy paper that Dienekes posted L23XL51 ran from about 10% in the south to 5% in the north-west. I combined that knowledge with RR's map of L51* which placed the Italian peak of that clade in the north/north-west (a few percent only). Combining the two it seemed to me that there could only be 2 or 3% of L23XL51 in north or NW Italy. To me there is a clearly distinct pattern between L51* and L23XL51. One now looks very Alpine and adjacent centred (and apparently Celtic/Italic given its pre-Slavic, pre-Germanic pattern in Tyrol in a recent paper) while the other has a southern and possibly maritime distribution and is strong in Greece, Albania on the Adriatic, south (especially Adriatic) Italy, the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast, near-Black Sea non-Slavic Moldovans, Armenians near the SE corner of the Black Sea and Anatolia. That actually to me resembles the sort of pattern a sea empire like the Greeks (I am not saying the Greeks literally) would have created.

Alternatively there is also a resemblance of M269*, L23* and the proposed Balkans IE group and also possibly Anatolian languages. Some theories place the Aremenian, Phyrigians, Greeks, the extinct Anatolian speakers and even the Albanians (whose vocab is land-locked pastoral sounding) as originally having been in the east Balkans iwhich does of course allow for the possibility that much of L23* and M269* was there. I am not sure which of the models is more correct but they both centre in the Balkans and I think one or both of these had a strong bearing on L23*.

The only other pattern I can see in L23* is an apparently more limited thrust (again possibly from an area around the north-west of the Black Sea (L23* is common in Moldova) that passed towards and north of the Carpathians to Poland. Its very much a south-east clade in Poland today (think it was the data Myres used that shows this). That looks like it could have got there from somewhere like Moldova to me which again is just a variant of the concept that L23* was once common among IE peoples of the western Black Sea shores/east Balkans. The only difference is that Moldova is fractionally outside the Balkans but it is essentially a Romanian speaking country that is culturally part of the same pre-Slavic Balkans IE speaking group.

I have long felt that L23* is the most likely originally IE speaking lineage among both the extinct Anatolian speakers and the proposed Balkan IE cluster of languages. If we believe linguistic/historical/archaeological ideas about these peoples then a Balkan (perhaps originally east Balkan) location for them and for much of L23* in the period 4000-2000BC is possible with later displacement east and west. Once L23* was a feature with a population like the Greeks a later phase of maritime spread is entirely possible too. I admit the model doesnt very well fit the variance which peaks in Anatolia but if the populations moved there from the east Balkans and the old homeland was subsequenly subject to a confusion of later population movements then who knows. Another thing to bear in mind is that back 4 or 5000 years ago the L23XL51 lineage may still have been just an elite group of Anatolian and also IE Balkans cluster groups rather than a population and this may have made it more easily subject to major changes in geography and variance. Look for instance at the Armenians. They speak an IE language, have a load of L23*, little European autosomal DNA but probably a majority of scholars think they came to Armenia from the east Balkans. That sounds like the definition of an elite migration to me.

Note that I am not saying that L23* or M269* actually had to ultimately have first occurred in the Balkans (or east Balkans). I am just saying that there is a strong suggestion in historical records that this may have been an important location of it in perhaps 4000-2000BC. An awful lot of the previous IE and Anatolian groups in Anatolia who would seem most likely to have had a lot of L23* also have been hypothesised to have got there from the east Balkans. If the majority of the hypothetical L23* elites had moved then so could the majority of their variance. As I said before, back in the Bronze Age it is not impossible that L23* was still really just an elite. The very same was probably true of P312 in the west at this time.

I am not throwing away the concept of earlier links to the Caucasus, Maykop etc but I think there is also a lot of strong connections that could like L23* as residing in the east Balkans before a move to Anatolia and also west. New data on L23* just makes that seem more tempting. If L51* had a long period as a parallel clade to L23XL51 then its distribution from Austria westwards would also tend to draw the eye to a common point of departure near the Lower Danube and perhaps that sort of area as the location of true L23*.

M269* is simply too rare and confusing to easily understand. However it again is most common in both Armenian (Ararat) and Kosovo Albanian areas. Both the Armenians and Albanians have been strongly suggested on historical and linguistic evidence to have originally have been close to each other in more eastern parts of the Balkans. So again, although very tangential, this could suggest that M269* also originated in that area. IE Anatolians too of course have been pointed to originating in this sort of area and it is worth noting that IE Anatolian substrate has been proposed in Greece. That sort of model of the origin of M269* and L23* in the east Balkans would quite probably have been concluded if a historian/linguist looked at it without variance coming into it. So the real question is is the higher variance in Anatolia fooling us and is it simply down to the often suggested transfer of elites of Anatolian speakers and later Balkan IE group speakers into Anatolia? The concept that L23* was still only an elite in the Bronze Age is important to this theory and overcoming the variance problem.

That would then of course lead onto the question of how M269* and/or L23* got to the east Balkans. There is little to go on. However, it is futile to try and look beyond 4000BC for M269* as it didnt exist at that time. That is approximately the sort of time that Anthony sees Anatolian steppe groups like Suvorovo as arriving in the Danube mouth and east Balkans area. Any earlier M269* or indeed the ancestral P297* group essentially do not exist leaving a huge chasm of 4000 years between P297* and M269* (and M73) almost totally unaccounted for. Is that perhaps a hint that badly stressed smaller early steppe groups c. 4000BC like Suvorovo fleeing the climate downturn could have brought R1b into the Old European farming world around the Danube mouth and north/west Balkans? The only other evidence we have its (by far) closest brother clade M73 which apparently is steppic. Is this a feasible way as to how M269* appeared from nowhere with almost no trace of its prior history c. 4000BC? An awful lot fits except when the higher Anatolian variance of L23* is taken at face value. It has long looked that P297 (primarily M269) was outside the sort of zone where strong farming expansion had occurred many thousands of years before 4000BC. So could it simply be that M269 was hiding in the largest area where farming sruggled to take off - the steppes.

The key to overcoming the apparent contradiction of the variance issue is to understand that we are probably talking about movement of clans and lineages rather than grand population movements initially. That combined with later transfer of the lions share of the elite of peoples like Anatolians speakers and Balkans cluster IE speakers into Anatolia and adjacent could account for the apparent contradition of this model with variance. It is also interesting that some have suggested a remanant of high L23XL51 variance around the Romania/Bulgaria area near the west Black Sea coast/Danube mouth. Is that its real origin point? The apparent lack of much M269* and L23* on the steppes might simply be due to the fact M269 was a very new clade when the steppes peoples started to spill into the Danube mouth area. In addition it is known that the Ukraine steppes was essentially systematically cleared of its pre-1700AD Tartar population who themselves were just the last of a large amount of Iranian and non-IE nomads who had swept the area since later prehistory.

alan
06-07-2013, 01:56 PM
Another possible expanation of higher diversity of L23* in Anatolia could simply be that it recieved a strong intrusion of several potentially L23* elites from the Balkans- several Anatolian IE groups, Armenians, Phyrigians, Greeks etc while other areas of SE Europe may have been less diverse than pooled Anatolia (which is almost like a mini continent). It could be as simple as that. Certainly we probably should ask ourselves if there is much L23* that could not potentially be attributed to those allegedly originally Balkans groups or their empires in and around Anatolia? I think too that ethnic and linguistic shifts and absorbtion over the last 4000 years means its not that surprising if there is L23* in other groups that are historically not linked to the potentially out-of-Balkans (I am thinking of ethnic Assyrians for example).

R.Rocca
06-07-2013, 03:32 PM
This was a map I had created for M269(xL23) based on Myres data. I know frequency is not a guarantee of a point of origination, but...

...if the core frequency of M269(xL23) is the Balkans...
...and Z2103/Z2105 seems to split into western and eastern subclades somewhere along the Adriatic...
...and L51 splits somewhere in the Alps into L11 and Z2113...

...IMO it is difficult to see L23 making its first appearance anywhere east of the Balkans.

http://www.r1b.org/imgs/M269_without_L23.png

alan
06-07-2013, 06:43 PM
This was a map I had created for M269(xL23) based on Myres data. I know frequency is not a guarantee of a point of origination, but...

...if the core frequency of M269(xL23) is the Balkans...
...and Z2103/Z2105 seems to split into western and eastern subclades somewhere along the Adriatic...
...and L51 splits somewhere in the Alps into L11 and Z2113...

...IMO it is difficult to see L23 making its first appearance anywhere east of the Balkans.

http://www.r1b.org/imgs/M269_without_L23.png

I have spent a lot of time over the last year or so trying to reason an Anatolian or Caucaus origin for M269* and L23*, looking at metallugy in particular. However, I think I have come to the conclusion that, while it very interesting, I just cannot even convince myself that its all down to the CMP. Once in existence, the CMP could have spread into the Balkans from either north or south of the Black Sea via either non-steppe or steppe groups but the bottom line is there is no out of Anatolia movement in this period while there is abundant evidence of movement out of the steppes from 4200BC onwards. It started long before Yamnaya and there is a sequence. Maybe Jean's Kemi Obi etc idea does make sense if they were steppe peoples who were close to Maykop and could have spread CMP ideas with them. Otherwise its a big jump from Maykop to the rest of Europe!

I think is relevant for both M269* and L23XL51 that there is evidence that non-Slavic west Balkans groups like Albanians in Albania and Kosovo had been displaced to the Adriatic from further east away from the sea. Apparently the Albanian language just does not fit its current position as it completely lacks native words for anything about the sea and has borrowed almost all its maritime vocab. There are other hints of this. After reading this I pretty much felt the Illyrian continuity theory seemed less likely.

Interesting what you say about L23 being split into western and eastern subclades. I get the impression from the Bulgaria and Moldova studies as well as the recent L23* paper than when looked at in detail L23. may have a two frequency peaks - one along the western Black Sea and another in the SW Adriatic Balkans with a fall off in the centre. A study demonstrated this for Bulgaria anyway. I think there has been some significant displacement within the Balkans and my guess is that the displacement is from east to west and that the original position within Old Europe may have been the east Balkans. The coldness of the trail of P297 lineages until the rise of M269 and M73 c. 4 or 5000BC does make me think that it arrived on the eastern Balkans from a non-farming area and by far the largest one is the steppe.

I just think I personally have been a bit mesmerised by the higher Anatolian variance and the lack of R1b in the Ukraine today but both are easily explicable just looking at historical sources. I understand anyway that the Caucasus themselves are not that high in variance in terms of L23*. Anatolia has has multiple likely L23-rich peoples and empires injected into it from the Balkans according to many historians so the difference may simply be down to it having a wider variety of L23* lineages end up there which may not be true of other area. This also fits the impression that R1b strongly gives of being a bunch of lineages of clans rather than entire populations. Its very rapid of L51 downstream across a vast area makes it almost certain that they were originally a tiny minority of the population in western Europe. The same may be true in SE Europe and SW Asia in the copper and Bronze Ages. That kind of thing can easily be distorted in terms of variance.

The idea that R1b could have emerged into Old Europe from the west end of the steppes is virtually impossible to disprove. There were a great deal of different cultures in that area including ones like Bug-Dniester that were absorbed by Cuc-Tryp, a farming culture. Even among steppic groups there was a huge variety. Yamnaya is just one relatively late group who expanded from the Voga-Urals area. Does anyone sane actually think they were all R1a? M73 as the other P297 line is also a possible clue. It shared an ancestor with M269 perhaps around 8000BC but there is next to no P297*. P297* could have been located somewhere in the Ukraine and basically at some point around 5000BC M73 developed and at some point was swept east along the steppe while M269* or its immediate ancestor line maybe simply went the other way and ended up around the Danube mouth. The other option of M73 heading into the steppe from the farming world (where it left no trace) seems a very unlikely move. It does seem significant to me that M269's age is very similar to the date c. 4000BC when there was great upheaval at the steppe-farming frontier and some steppe groups entered Old Europe.

As I have said before I think V88 could have a radically different history as its common ancestor with the rest of R1b was back in the Palaeolithic. It could have separated off and moved away from other R1b during the Younger Dryas so it tells us very little about the P297 story.

alan
06-07-2013, 06:54 PM
This was a map I had created for M269(xL23) based on Myres data. I know frequency is not a guarantee of a point of origination, but...

...if the core frequency of M269(xL23) is the Balkans...
...and Z2103/Z2105 seems to split into western and eastern subclades somewhere along the Adriatic...
...and L51 splits somewhere in the Alps into L11 and Z2113...

...IMO it is difficult to see L23 making its first appearance anywhere east of the Balkans.

http://www.r1b.org/imgs/M269_without_L23.png

Actually looking at your map M269* looks like it could indeed have moved west into the Balkans then Anatolia as well as east from the western steppe into the Volga and South Caspian area (not necessarily in the same period) from a now-M269*-free area in the Ukraine steppe. There is a gap between the two in the western steppes and eastern Anatolia and they clearly didnt teleport between the two. The gap therefore must have once have featured some M269*.

Mikewww
06-08-2013, 08:31 PM
This was a map I had created for M269(xL23) based on Myres data.
Thanks, Richard.

M269xL23 didn't leave much of a contiguous trail for us. It would seem like the Balkans is it but then you have Northern Iran and Central Russia.

Actually, this is up our administrator's alley, DMXX. He used to create haplogroup maps for Central Asia. This is all M343 (R1b) though, not just M269 (R1b1a2).
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/17907527/R1b_Frequency_in_West%20Asia_by_DMXX.png

razyn
06-08-2013, 08:48 PM
I know frequency is not a guarantee of a point of origination, but...

...if the core frequency of M269(xL23) is the Balkans...

Apart from its frequency (a good many thousand years later, i.e. now), is there some other reason to refer to the dark spot on this (or any such) map as a "core"?

I accept that a frequency map tells us something, but I don't think that's what it tells us.

R.Rocca
06-08-2013, 11:14 PM
Apart from its frequency (a good many thousand years later, i.e. now), is there some other reason to refer to the dark spot on this (or any such) map as a "core"?

I accept that a frequency map tells us something, but I don't think that's what it tells us.

I'm not going to argue semantics. It has 3 of the 4 most frequent areas on the academically tested planet, so to me, that's the core. You can call it whatever you want to call it. If you have something else to offer about M269(L23), please let us know.

alan
06-09-2013, 01:01 AM
Apart from its frequency (a good many thousand years later, i.e. now), is there some other reason to refer to the dark spot on this (or any such) map as a "core"?

I accept that a frequency map tells us something, but I don't think that's what it tells us.

The west Balkans peak (which I think there is a lot of evidence relates to groups who were originally in more easterly parts of the Balkans) for M269* is also an L23* frequency peak and to boot the Balkans further east also includes an L23* variance peak. I dont think it is possible to do variance for M269* due to low numbers. I think that there is a combination of information that points to the Balkans as the first foot of R1b in Old Europe/SW Asia. The eastern Anatolia M269* looks like its linked to that of the Balkans. There then seems to be a significant gap and then the Caspian/Volga group. I think that the bigger picture M269* map could indicate Ukraine as the origin point because it looks like it forked west and south from there to the Balkans and east and south to the Caspian/Volga area. A Ukraine origin would also tie in well with its P297 brother clade M73*.

razyn
06-09-2013, 04:29 AM
I'm not going to argue semantics. It has 3 of the 4 most frequent areas on the academically tested planet, so to me, that's the core. You can call it whatever you want to call it. If you have something else to offer about M269(L23), please let us know.

I'm not talking about semantics, more like truth in labeling. My calling it something else, e.g. the Tar Pits of M269, wouldn't change the legend on the map. But in this particular case it isn't the legend that has called it a core, it's your quoted post.

Really it's where survivors of the intervening millennia -- with their various migrations, climatic upheavals, wars, plagues, and daughterings-out -- have had enough genetic success of the male variety still to leave a measurable trace in a population from there that can be sampled today (though the sampling may in fact have happened elsewhere). If you want to call that a core, I'd sincerely like to know why. In the actual map legend, you called it "M269(xL23) Frequency;" and unlike some other recently posted maps, yours appropriately shows both side of the Caspian Sea. I have no problem with that.

[Edit] I noticed right after posting this that Andrew Lancaster was raising the same basic objection, at the same time, on a different thread. http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?948-Links-between-Mesopotamia-Maykop-etc&p=7586&viewfull=1#post7586

And btw my use of "Tar Pits" in this post alludes to the La Brea Tar Pits, in the Los Angeles CA area. We know about some of the extinct North American species because they got stuck there and, much later, that's where they were found. But they didn't originate there, and Los Angeles is not their core area, in any normal use of the term.

[[[Mikewww/Moderator on 6/9/2013: I tend to agree that this is a bit of a discussion on semantics and therefore devoid of content. "Core" is ambiguous term in the first place so it's pretty much however you want to define it but frequency seems like a reasonable measurement. I hardly see the use of the word "core" here as being deceptive. Anyway, let's try to add new content and logic with our posts.]]]

R.Rocca
06-09-2013, 03:53 PM
I'm not talking about semantics, more like truth in labeling. My calling it something else, e.g. the Tar Pits of M269, wouldn't change the legend on the map. But in this particular case it isn't the legend that has called it a core, it's your quoted post.

Really it's where survivors of the intervening millennia -- with their various migrations, climatic upheavals, wars, plagues, and daughterings-out -- have had enough genetic success of the male variety still to leave a measurable trace in a population from there that can be sampled today (though the sampling may in fact have happened elsewhere). If you want to call that a core, I'd sincerely like to know why. In the actual map legend, you called it "M269(xL23) Frequency;" and unlike some other recently posted maps, yours appropriately shows both side of the Caspian Sea. I have no problem with that.

[Edit] I noticed right after posting this that Andrew Lancaster was raising the same basic objection, at the same time, on a different thread. http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?948-Links-between-Mesopotamia-Maykop-etc&p=7586&viewfull=1#post7586

And btw my use of "Tar Pits" in this post alludes to the La Brea Tar Pits, in the Los Angeles CA area. We know about some of the extinct North American species because they got stuck there and, much later, that's where they were found. But they didn't originate there, and Los Angeles is not their core area, in any normal use of the term.

Yes, we all know frequency can be a red herring, but at this point, your posts are taking on troll-like qualities. If you have something to add to this discussion, please do so.

alan
06-09-2013, 04:40 PM
Every so often someone comments on the perils of using modern population studies to infer the past. However, bottom line is without that we may as well just all shut up and wait to see how ancient DNA pans out over the next few years. That would kill the deep time part of the hobby which is a major focus of this site (compared to rootsweb which seems much more about genealogy and DNA these days). I think if anyone doesnt want to speculate based on what we have now then may as well just wait till more ancient DNA work is done if speculation is not one's thing. However, for others this is just a fun metally stimulating hobby based on trying to tease something out of the confusion. I wouldnt knock this type of fun either. A good many people in this hobby have put together models based mainly on modern population with just a little bit of ancient DNA evidence and have done very well considering and are not being badly contradicted by the ancient DNA as it appears. Personally I think there is still quite a lot of data, papers etc out there on population DNA studies, archaeology, language, climate, environment etc that can fruitfully be chewed over for a year or so yet. I am still finding new papers free online every week that might give little hints here and there on deep time human movement. The fun is in the lateral thinking and trying to infer from mentally triangulating seemingly unconnected data. Its a giant puzzle. The answers will probably largely be known in the next 10 years or so so enjoy the hobby while stocks last!

alan
07-28-2013, 03:25 PM
I am digging about in the Hungarian copper age as it is one of the areas between the L51 zone and the L23xL51 block. I found this a very interesting article on Hungary through the Copper Age

http://www.regeszet.org.hu/images/angol/a_005.pdf

Interesting talk of population shunting west c. 4000BC

Also an interesting article on the fine dating of dispersal of tell populations into smaller settlements in SE Hungary. It shows that the social changes were under way at the beginning of the early copper age of the area c. 4500BC. That is before the steppes intrusions and even before the climate decline.

https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/index.php/radiocarbon/article/view/3564

And another

[url]http://www.academia.edu/594256/Early_Copper_Age_Settlements_in_the_Koros_Region_o f_the_Great_Hungarian_Plain[/url

and another that discusses the profound changes in social structure indicated by the change from large hall houses to small houses in Hungary

http://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/dl/free/0078116996/832676/Kottak14e_BTC_ch10.pdf

It is interesting that these papers show a move towards smaller dispersed settlements and smaller one-family houses was under way c. 4550BC at the start of the Hungarian copper age prior to any steppes influence. One can of course also talk about the social stratification implied in Bulgaria at Varna. So, I would caution against the casual reader swalling too much of a Gimbutas type idea of old Europe with happy mother earth worshipping communal villagers living on tell mounds until bad weather and cattle nomads ruined everything. In general read new books before you read the old ones like Gimbutas. The societal structure was quite dynamic and varied in Old Europe.

MJost
07-28-2013, 04:49 PM
I saw this paper and thought it might fit in here. If not it can be moved.

http://www.academia.edu/4072179/Celtic_Coinage_From_Ukraine

MJost