PDA

View Full Version : FTDNA U152 Project Closing in on 2000 members



MitchellSince1893
06-05-2017, 02:31 AM
Currently sitting at 1981 members https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/r-1b-u152/about/background.

Took 8 years and 8 months to get the first 1000, and 3 years and 3 months to get to the next 1000.

Celt_??
06-05-2017, 08:33 AM
Any idea how many SNPs were added since the project began?

MitchellSince1893
06-05-2017, 01:18 PM
Any idea how many SNPs were added since the project began?

1 SNP from 2005 (when project started and U152 was discovered) to 2007.

3 SNPs in 2008 when U152>L2 and L2>L20 were added to ISOGG tree.

8 SNPs in 2011 when U152>Z36 and U152>Z56 were added...along with U152>L2>Z367, U152>L2>Z49, and U152>L2>Z49>Z142

18 SNPs in 2012's and 2013's U152 ISOGG tree, but the FTDNA U152 project had more SNPs in it than ISOGG was showing.

An EUPEDIA U152 tree from August 2013 shows 30 SNPs on it, which is probably close to what the FTDNA U152 project had at the time

In early 2014 BigY results started coming in and the SNP flood gates opened. If I recall FGC SNP results started coming in in late 2013.

In today's Ytree.net Bigtree, there are 2073 SNPs shown in the U152 section.
http://ytree.net/DisplayTree.php?blockID=28

Pylsteen
06-18-2017, 11:35 AM
Very interesting; I am on the verge of joining :-)

MitchellSince1893
06-18-2017, 07:58 PM
Just 7 more to go to hit 2000. I was hoping to hit 2000 on father's day (today). Oh well.

rms2
06-18-2017, 08:54 PM
Just 7 more to go to hit 2000. I was hoping to hit 2000 on father's day (today). Oh well.

Well, I would join if I could, but since I am R1b-L21 . . . :beerchug:

MitchellSince1893
06-29-2017, 03:13 PM
Up to 1996 members. 4 to go.

https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/r-1b-u152/about/news?ekit=qEvthSX1wQ9MCkqDmlOmNw%3d%3d

Webb
06-29-2017, 04:52 PM
Up to 1996 members. 4 to go.

https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/r-1b-u152/about/news?ekit=qEvthSX1wQ9MCkqDmlOmNw%3d%3d

I now see 1997.

razyn
06-29-2017, 05:24 PM
I swapped emails with MitchellSince1893 on June 5th, right after he started this thread. At that time the U152 project at FTDNA had 1981 members, and the DF27 project had 1868; we were a little behind, but also "closing in on 2000." My email had to do with comparison of our rates of project growth, since these two major subdivisions of P312 began as brothers below ZZ11. I'll paste in a screen shot of a graphic from Alex Williamson's current version of The Big Tree to illustrate that relationship, for those who may be unaware of it. If it's a thumbnail, click to enlarge:

17294

Our paths to 2000 have not been very similar. U152 has had a project for about six years longer, starting essentially from its discovery. By contrast DF27 (after it was discovered late in 2011) began its separate project only in July, 2013. However, the latter started with a bit more than 500 members, that MikeWww had found in other projects (especially the P312 and Subclades project); U152 had to start from the first few examples that had been found.

Anyway, a couple of hints suggest that the remaining gap will probably be closed within a few months, though on the far side of 2000. From June 5 - 29, 2017, U152 has grown from 1981 to 1996. In that same period, DF27 has grown from 1868 to 1903. In part, this reflects the population sizes; DF27 was stronger in a colonizing part of Europe, and the testing at FTDNA emphasizes colonial populations in the western hemisphere. But the narrowing gap also reflects NextGen testing. On the ZZ11 branch of Alex's Big Tree illustrated above, U152 is represented by 412 samples (that have had BigY, FGC Elite, 1000 Genomes or similar sequencing); DF27 is represented by 737.

MitchellSince1893
06-30-2017, 11:50 PM
...On the ZZ11 branch of Alex's Big Tree illustrated above, U152 is represented by 412 samples (that have had BigY, FGC Elite, 1000 Genomes or similar sequencing); DF27 is represented by 737.

Another comparison is the number of SNPs and other mutations on Alex's Ytree
L21 currently has 8966 (60% of all mutations in the P312 section of tree)
DF27 has 3354
U152 has 2131
L238 has 149
ZZ37/ZZ38 has 143
DF99 has 102
DF19 has 96
Y18209 has 28
A906 has 25.

Overall there are 15025 SNPs and other mutations in the P312 section of the Ytree.net (above totals + 31 other SNPs above/outside of L21, DF27 and U152)

U106 which is a late addition to ytree.net has 1074.

16099 total.

DillonResearcher
07-07-2017, 08:31 AM
We're getting closer! Having found a new R-L135 tester (the SNP above my subclade) he should bring the total to 1999 when he joins.

MitchellSince1893
07-08-2017, 04:18 AM
1 to go
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/f1/e1/f6/f1e1f610b47a411805e755cc4ef887bc.png

MitchellSince1893
07-09-2017, 04:48 PM
Finally there.

B211785 was the 2000th member, 9 July 2017 at 11:32 ET

MitchellSince1893
08-02-2017, 06:11 AM
I swapped emails with MitchellSince1893 on June 5th, right after he started this thread. At that time the U152 project at FTDNA had 1981 members, and the DF27 project had 1868; we were a little behind, but also "closing in on 2000."...the remaining gap will probably be closed within a few months, though on the far side of 2000. From June 5 - 29, 2017, U152 has grown from 1981 to 1996. In that same period, DF27 has grown from 1868 to 1903.

The gap has shrunk further
U152 2021
DF27 1943

5 Jun: U152 ahead by 113
29 Jun: U152 ahead by 93
2 Aug: U152 ahead by 78

Maybe by Dec 2017 or Jan 2018 DF27 will pass U152

Webb
08-04-2017, 12:56 PM
The gap has shrunk further
U152 2021
DF27 1943

5 Jun: U152 ahead by 113
29 Jun: U152 ahead by 93
2 Aug: U152 ahead by 78

Maybe by Dec 2017 or Jan 2018 DF27 will pass U152

Nothing against U152 peeps, but I am hoping that DF27 will grow to be the largest continental P312 clade and the second largest British Isles P312 clade. Mainly because I am hoping sheer numbers will give some insight on distribution and access to more downstream snp's that will possibly help build good dates on clade splits. We are still seeing Armenians sharing snp's with Spanish, and a lot of other geographically spread links between kits without good age estimations.

MitchellSince1893
08-04-2017, 03:25 PM
Nothing against U152 peeps, but I am hoping that DF27 will grow to be the largest continental P312 clade and the second largest British Isles P312 clade. Mainly because I am hoping sheer numbers will give some insight on distribution and access to more downstream snp's that will possibly help build good dates on clade splits. We are still seeing Armenians sharing snp's with Spanish, and a lot of other geographically spread links between kits without good age estimations.

It's going to take some time to overcome the overwhelming L21 immigration to US and Canada advantage but I think it will eventually happen (not anytime soon) in the FTDNA projects

Pylsteen
08-11-2017, 07:27 PM
Hey people, I got my Y37 results today. As expected, R-M269. The few matches I got, seemed a bit general. Since I was tested U152 (likely L2-) by LivingDNA, I joined the U152 project. It is now waiting for Big Y. Is there something I can do now in the main time with this STR result to get a better view? Are there certain STRs which may give a clue? Or should I wait for the admin to place me in a group? (How long does that take?) :-)


EDIT: based on my earlier results I was placed in U152+, L2-. Closest matches within U152 seem to be Z56+.

MitchellSince1893
09-02-2017, 02:20 AM
As of 1 Sep: U152 project is at 2040 members. DF27 at 1974 members. Gap down to 66.

razyn
09-02-2017, 06:18 PM
As of 1 Sep: U152 project is at 2040 members. DF27 at 1974 members. Gap down to 66.

The L21 project at FTDNA has 6024 members today.

U152 + DF27 (the rest of what has sometimes been called the "Big Three" below P312) projects combined, aka ZZ11, have 4015 members today.

Gap down to 2,009...

I expect that ZZ11 eventually will be seen to outnumber L21. Being anciently more of a continental (or less of an "Isles") population, ZZ11 is comparatively less thoroughly explored, within the FTDNA customer base. And ZZ11 is (or its main components are) less widely publicized in populations of which English is not the first language. Catching up is hard to do. But the race, if there be a race, has not been underway for very long.

MitchellSince1893
10-01-2017, 02:55 PM
As of 1 Oct: U152 is at 2068 members. DF27 at 2008. Gap down to 60.

U152 and DF27 total: 4076. L21 at 6153. Gap increased to 2077 from 2009 the previous month.

razyn
10-01-2017, 03:18 PM
If only there were more testing of Central and South American populations at FTDNA...

MitchellSince1893
11-01-2017, 04:49 AM
As of 1 Oct: U152 is at 2068 members. DF27 at 2008. Gap down to 60.

U152 and DF27 total: 4076. L21 at 6153. Gap increased to 2077 from 2009 the previous month.

As of 1 Nov: U152 is at 2087 members. DF27 at 2028. Gap down to 59.

U152 and DF27 total: 4115. L21 at 6258. Gap increased to 2143 from 2077 the previous month.

Webb
11-01-2017, 12:57 PM
As of 1 Nov: U152 is at 2087 members. DF27 at 2028. Gap down to 59.

U152 and DF27 total: 4115. L21 at 6258. Gap increased to 2143 from 2077 the previous month.

As of the same date on Alex's Big Tree:

L21: 2870

DF27>Z195: 335
DF27>ZZ12: 465

DF27 total: 800

U152: 437

So with a total number of P312 on Alex's tree of: 4259 and using these numbers to provide ratio percentages, we have below:

67% L21
19% DF27
10% U152
4% other smaller P312 clades combined

theImmortal
11-03-2017, 03:32 PM
Perhaps a tad off-topic, but I'm curious whether other U152 members have received their updated Big Y results yet.

I'm U152->L2->Z49->BY3620->BY3613.

Currently, FTDNA is showing that I have 0 matches at all of these levels. I'm assuming this is incorrect. My understanding is that they're a little less than halfway done with the updates. Even if they're doing the upgrade in a sequential order (e.g., by branch), I got my results a week ago and still have no matches.

Osiris
11-03-2017, 06:51 PM
I have 3 kits under U152 > L2 > A6454. Only 1 came through.

DillonResearcher
11-03-2017, 09:01 PM
Perhaps a tad off-topic, but I'm curious whether other U152 members have received their updated Big Y results yet.

I'm U152->L2->Z49->BY3620->BY3613.

Currently, FTDNA is showing that I have 0 matches at all of these levels. I'm assuming this is incorrect. My understanding is that they're a little less than halfway done with the updates. Even if they're doing the upgrade in a sequential order (e.g., by branch), I got my results a week ago and still have no matches.

Exactly the same problem for me

MitchellSince1893
11-03-2017, 11:37 PM
Perhaps a tad off-topic, but I'm curious whether other U152 members have received their updated Big Y results yet.

I'm U152->L2->Z49->BY3620->BY3613.

Currently, FTDNA is showing that I have 0 matches at all of these levels. I'm assuming this is incorrect. My understanding is that they're a little less than halfway done with the updates. Even if they're doing the upgrade in a sequential order (e.g., by branch), I got my results a week ago and still have no matches.

I have not received my updated results

A.Morup
11-04-2017, 08:09 AM
Two kits under L2 > Z367 > Z35 > BY3604 completed, but I only see this one BY3604 match as a match from L2 and below...

Orobicus
11-04-2017, 10:28 AM
Hello, I've just tested my U152 with Yseq and this is the outcome:

https://i.imgur.com/5vnToJ9.png

What exactly does it mean? Am I Z36?

Thanks.

A.Morup
11-04-2017, 11:28 AM
Yes - you have tested positive for Z36.
https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-Z36/

Orobicus
11-04-2017, 11:39 AM
Yes - you have tested positive for Z36.
https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-Z36/

Thank you Morup. Is there any map with the distribution of Z36 in Europe? I've heard that it could be an ancient marker of La Tène Celts (and then, I guess, of the Gauls).

MitchellSince1893
11-04-2017, 01:22 PM
Yes - you have tested positive for Z36.
https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-Z36/

From YSEQ FAQ. https://www.yseq.net/faq.php

How can I tell if I'm ancestral (=negative) or derived (=positive) for a certain SNP?
Go to the table of your results and check the allele column on the very right side. It shows the DNA base (A,G,C or T) that you have at the SNP position and a little plus (+) or minus (-) sign behind it. Plus means that you are derived for that SNP and minus means that you are ancestral.

YSEQ must have changed their format. R+ now means you are positive for the SNP?

MacUalraig
11-04-2017, 01:42 PM
From YSEQ FAQ. https://www.yseq.net/faq.php


YSEQ must have changed their format. R+ now means you are positive for the SNP?

R=A or G, if it has a + sign at the end then they have called it as positive.

Celt_??
11-04-2017, 01:54 PM
Is there any map with the distribution of Z36 in Europe? I've heard that it could be an ancient marker of La Tène Celts (and then, I guess, of the Gauls).

Passa made a Z36 distribution map a year or so ago and uploaded it:

19537

MitchellSince1893
11-04-2017, 02:19 PM
Thank you Morup. Is there any map with the distribution of Z36 in Europe? I've heard that it could be an ancient marker of La Tène Celts (and then, I guess, of the Gauls).

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1Kpgd2-DEhpu5nC0Ggjwb57UFLNM&ll=49.27492476727607%2C3.740836686844318&z=4

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/78/96/38/78963815b6d0c01f23af389ced2bbcaf.png

ZZ45 map (one branch above Z36)
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/45/76/12/457612dff296380597b0ab5330588cde.png

MitchellSince1893
11-04-2017, 02:51 PM
I've wondered how much of the U152 in the Rhineland area is actually of recent Swiss origin. The Thirty Years War depopulated this area of many of it's original inhabitants...later replaced by Swiss immigrants.

In the second half of the seventeenth century, thousands of Swiss left Switzerland and settled throughout southern Protestant Germany along the Rhine River, especially in the Palatine and Alsace, which had lost much population in the Thirty Years' War. Most adhered to their Reformed faith if possible and parich registers will indicate either "Swiss" or the more specific location of origin. Additional sources for finding the place of origin include (German) town citizenship records, and Swiss synod and parish court records, especially because Swiss citizenship is held at the municipal level and thus those surnames remain over long periods of time.
https://mki.wisc.edu/library/catalog/immigrant-ancestors-swiss-immigration-palatine-and-alsace

Crop of the FTDNA U152 map showing the Swiss and Rhineland U152 concentrations.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d2/bc/15/d2bc159db5af86298b14e6a900776be7.png

Celt_??
11-04-2017, 03:18 PM
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1Kpgd2-DEhpu5nC0Ggjwb57UFLNM&ll=49.27492476727607%2C3.740836686844318&z=4

I am a member of the U152 Project with the terminal SNP CTS9733. Can members also search your U152 Google maps for SNPs like L20 or are you the only one who can do that? Thank you.

Petr
11-04-2017, 03:34 PM
R=A or G, if it has a + sign at the end then they have called it as positive.

It's strange, Z36 is mutation A to G, R means A or G, how they can determine that this is "+"?

MitchellSince1893
11-04-2017, 03:40 PM
I am a member of the U152 Project with the terminal SNP CTS9733. Can members also search your U152 Google maps for SNPs like L20 or are you the only one who can do that? Thank you.

Yes. They are Steve Gilbert's maps (head admin for FTDNA U152 project)

CTS9733 map here https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1Gfb-dABIcHkA27JbIgec2snf2Ew&ll=51.93253809993457%2C2.992932314453128&z=4
L20 map here https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1n56EoNpsG_wko96xKWfyvmRisZU&ll=51.55321307308814%2C3.1311595312500913&z=4

All available maps are located here https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/r-1b-u152/about/results

MacUalraig
11-04-2017, 03:41 PM
It's strange, Z36 is mutation A to G, R means A or G, how they can determine that this is "+"?

I had this on a DF27 call:

DF27 ChrY 21380200 21380200 R+

Notes from YSEQ stated:
The R+ indicates the IUPAC code for a mixed base result which is still considered as positive.

...and this case
FGC5494 ChrY 3445114 3445114 R+

Orobicus
11-04-2017, 04:17 PM
I've written to YSEQ for more info. @Mac what do you mean exactly when you say "a mixed base result"? A spurious Z36?

MacUalraig
11-04-2017, 04:22 PM
I've written to YSEQ for more info. @Mac what do you mean exactly when you say "a mixed base result"? A spurious Z36?

http://www.bioinformatics.org/sms/iupac.html

Usually in NGS data it means you had a mix of the two alleles. In YSEQ/Sanger testing you'd have to ask YSEQ what it meant but they have called it, nonetheless.
Here is a YFUll example:
Position data: 15A 7C 30G
Weight for A: 0.293710021322
Weight for C: 0.137526652452
Weight for G: 0.568763326226
Probability of error: 0.257288807513 (0<->1)
Sample allele: R (A or G)

theImmortal
11-05-2017, 06:21 PM
Exactly the same problem for me

Just found this on the FTDNA Learning Center Big Y page:

"A person is considered a match if they have 40 or fewer differences in SNPs with you, and their haplogroup is downstream from your haplogroup or downstream from your four closest parent haplogroups."

By "SNPs," they must be including unnamed novel variants, right?

I have 33 unnamed novel variants not in common with everyone from whom I branch off at Z49 or higher. My terminal haplogroup (BY3613) matches all have at least 18 unnamed novel variants not in common with me.

Does that make a that a total of 51 "differences in SNPs" between myself and my BY3613 matches?

If so, then there is nothing wrong with the new platform; these matches are not coming back.

This is a big deal for U152 researchers since it seems that most kits have 20 novel variants or more.


I have 3 kits under U152 > L2 > A6454. Only 1 came through.

Are you able to test the above hypothesis re: adding the novel variants not in common across both kits? Or do you mean only 1 of your kits has been updated so far?

Osiris
11-06-2017, 06:20 AM
Are you able to test the above hypothesis re: adding the novel variants not in common across both kits? Or do you mean only 1 of your kits has been updated so far?Only 1 kit has been updated and I have no matches in that kit at this time.

Orobicus
11-06-2017, 12:52 PM
This is the answer I've received from YSEQ:

R is the IUPAC code for "A or G":
https://www.bioinformatics.org/sms/iupac.html

The plus sign indicates that we consider it as the derived allele for Z36.

Z36 is not a recommended SNP from YSEQ because it is located in a region that is >99% identical to the X chromosome.
The ancestral A allele we see in the sequencing trace is most likely coming from he X chromosome, therefore you have most likely a derived G allele on the Y chromosome.

We have removed Z36 from our R1b-U152 tree because of this ambiguity:
https://www.yseq.net/images/trees/R1b-U152_tree.pdf

The markers on this tree are all verified for phylogenetic stability and are recommended for testing. Z36 is only available for historic backwards compatibility. However we don't think it has a phylogenetic value."

So, am I Z36 or not, in your opinion? Sorry but I'm not really an expert. Thanks

MacUalraig
11-06-2017, 01:47 PM
This is the answer I've received from YSEQ:

R is the IUPAC code for "A or G":
https://www.bioinformatics.org/sms/iupac.html

The plus sign indicates that we consider it as the derived allele for Z36.

Z36 is not a recommended SNP from YSEQ because it is located in a region that is >99% identical to the X chromosome.
The ancestral A allele we see in the sequencing trace is most likely coming from he X chromosome, therefore you have most likely a derived G allele on the Y chromosome.

We have removed Z36 from our R1b-U152 tree because of this ambiguity:
https://www.yseq.net/images/trees/R1b-U152_tree.pdf

The markers on this tree are all verified for phylogenetic stability and are recommended for testing. Z36 is only available for historic backwards compatibility. However we don't think it has a phylogenetic value."

So, am I Z36 or not, in your opinion? Sorry but I'm not really an expert. Thanks

Haven't we already been through this? Everyone says you are positive including YSEQ.

theImmortal
11-06-2017, 04:26 PM
Only 1 kit has been updated and I have no matches in that kit at this time.

Gotcha. Curious what you find. In the meantime, I think I can confirm this theory.

I found a kit in a different project that has 73 matches at the DF13 level (a branch below R-L21). The kit has 14 unnamed variants and the highest number of unnamed variants that any of its matches has is 26 (14 + 26 = 40). That match has other named SNPs not in common, which brings the total of "SNPs" to more than 40. It looks like the system is limiting the displayed matches to kits where there are no more than a total of 40 unnamed variants not in common, and known SNPs are not factoring into this calculation.

This sucks.

It means I will no longer see any of the existing matches in my terminal haplogroup.

And it is rather arbitrary. If there is someone who is L2+, Z49- who happens to have a very small number of unnamed variants, just by chance, they might show up in my match list, even though it has been established that they're more distantly related than Z49+ kits, not to mention the other kits in my terminal haplogroup.

It also limits the research value of these tests. Imagine kits that are P312 or U152 basal (i.e., negative for all known subclades). They'll almost certainly have more than 40 unnamed variants not in common with each other, but wouldn't they be the most relevant matches to one another? And wouldn't these be some of the most interesting kits to study in order to find the origin of the founder of these haplogroups?

Orobicus
11-06-2017, 07:31 PM
Haven't we already been through this? Everyone says you are positive including YSEQ.

Yes, Krahn has explained that I'm 100% Z36+; the ambiguity is that a simple test with the Z36 SNP can't tell me if I'm Z36 in a direct male line, so I could have inherited it from my maternal side. Now it's all clear.
Thank you for helping me out.

theImmortal
11-06-2017, 09:07 PM
Yes, Krahn has explained that I'm 100% Z36+; the ambiguity is that a simple test with the Z36 SNP can't tell me if I'm Z36 in a direct male line, so I could have inherited it from my maternal side. Now it's all clear.
Thank you for helping me out.

I don't think that's what the YSEQ folks were saying. They were saying that they probably got a mixed read because the test picked up some of your X chromosomal material. Since the X and Y are nearly identical in this region, the test mistook your X chromosome for the Y chromosome on some of the reads and spat out an "A" value from your X chromosome. But it also spat out the derived "G" value on your Y chromosome. That's how I interpret what they said.

Other than X-to-Y gene conversion, you don't inherit Y chromosome values from your mother, and since you said you weren't an expert (no offense intended), I'm assuming that's not what you meant.

Orobicus
11-06-2017, 09:22 PM
I don't think that's what the YSEQ folks were saying. They were saying that they probably got a mixed read because the test picked up some of your X chromosomal material. Since the X and Y are nearly identical in this region, the test mistook your X chromosome for the Y chromosome on some of the reads and spat out an "A" value from your X chromosome. But it also spat out the derived "G" value on your Y chromosome. That's how I interpret what they said.

Other than X-to-Y gene conversion, you don't inherit Y chromosome values from your mother, and since you said you weren't an expert (no offense intended), I'm assuming that's not what you meant.

This is what Thomas Krahn said:

"Yes, the result is clear and you are Z36+. (100% sure)

I just wanted to tell you the full story behind it. It is important for me to communicate that Z36 is a problematic marker for phylogeny. This has nothing to do with the testing process. This is only based on the human biology. According to today's knowledge Z36 is not reliable for phylogenetic interpretation because it may not be inherited in a direct male line."

theImmortal
11-06-2017, 09:57 PM
This is what Thomas Krahn said:

"Yes, the result is clear and you are Z36+. (100% sure)

I just wanted to tell you the full story behind it. It is important for me to communicate that Z36 is a problematic marker for phylogeny. This has nothing to do with the testing process. This is only based on the human biology. According to today's knowledge Z36 is not reliable for phylogenetic interpretation because it may not be inherited in a direct male line."

Ahh, looks like he is talking about X-to-Y gene conversion...

The significance of this phenomenon is overstated by researchers, in my experience. They see an SNP show up in multiple male lines and determine that the SNP is "no longer reliable." True, if that's the only evidence you're looking at.

But if you're traveling down a branch (U152) and are expecting that the SNP might show up (and here, Z36 is one of the major branches below U152), and you in fact find it, that's pretty darn good evidence that you've inherited it from your male line.

Example: The branch I2a was originally defined by the mutation P37. But then they started to see P37 showing up in several different lines (including a U152 subclade). It's theororized that P37 and a handful of nearby SNPs came through X-to-Y gene conversion. So researchers now know that if you test positive for P37, it does not necessarily mean you're I2a, even though at one point they might have made that call based solely on that piece of information. But if you've already tested positive for I2 and you get a result that you're positive for P37, that's really strong evidence you're in I2a.

Orobicus
11-06-2017, 10:18 PM
Ahh, looks like he is talking about X-to-Y gene conversion...

The significance of this phenomenon is overstated by researchers, in my experience. They see an SNP show up in multiple male lines and determine that the SNP is "no longer reliable." True, if that's the only evidence you're looking at.

But if you're traveling down a branch (U152) and are expecting that the SNP might show up (and here, Z36 is one of the major branches below U152), and you in fact find it, that's pretty darn good evidence that you've inherited it from your male line.

Example: The branch I2a was originally defined by the mutation P37. But then they started to see P37 showing up in several different lines (including a U152 subclade). It's theororized that P37 and a handful of nearby SNPs came through X-to-Y gene conversion. So researchers now know that if you test positive for P37, it does not necessarily mean you're I2a, even though at one point they might have made that call based solely on that piece of information. But if you've already tested positive for I2 and you get a result that you're positive for P37, that's really strong evidence you're in I2a.

Yeah, you have a point here, in fact he said also, before:

"Z36 is not a recommended SNP from YSEQ because it is located in a region that is >99% identical to the X chromosome.
The ancestral A allele we see in the sequencing trace is most likely coming from he X chromosome, therefore you have most likely a derived G allele on the Y chromosome."

But, as you said, being for sure U152 (from my paternal ancestry) would be weird if the Z36 came from a recombination between Y and X. After all my regional area (Bergamo, Lombardy) is quite full of Z36 subclades.

MitchellSince1893
12-05-2017, 03:49 AM
As of 1 Nov: U152 is at 2087 members. DF27 at 2028. Gap down to 59.

U152 and DF27 total: 4115. L21 at 6258. Gap increased to 2143 from 2077 the previous month.

Meant to do this on 1 Dec...here are the 4 Dec 2017 numbers

U152 2112 +25 since 1 Nov
DF27 2009 -19 since 1 Nov...I'm assuming project admin did some house cleaning to remove non DF27 members from the project. This occurs when members join and later testing reveals they are members of a different haplogroup.
L21 6363 +105 since 1 Nov

mafe
01-05-2018, 09:14 AM
I am going to add 4 new members today, all in U152>A274>A275 group.

MitchellSince1893
01-05-2018, 01:56 PM
I am going to add 4 new members today, all in U152>A274>A275 group.

Placed. Thanks for the heads up. For other readers, I did check the STR values and matches to confirm proper placement.

MitchellSince1893
01-05-2018, 03:49 PM
FYI: I created a new thread for tracking Haplogroup R project numbers https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?13006-FTDNA-Project-numbers

U152 ended the year with 2136. Today we are at 2144.

randwulf
01-05-2018, 10:30 PM
I already was in the U152 group, but didn't know of the others. I joined the general R1b and the P312 groups today.

MitchellSince1893
02-14-2018, 03:21 AM
Finally there.

B211785 was the 2000th member, 9 July 2017 at 11:32 ET

Today, just over 7 months later we got our 2200th member. 10% growth in that period. If it continues at that rate it would be 17% annual growth.

21475

Webb
04-19-2018, 06:11 PM
Alex's Big Tree now has 1001 DF27 kits compared to 551 U152 kits.

MitchellSince1893
05-01-2018, 02:40 PM
Alex's Big Tree now has 1001 DF27 kits compared to 551 U152 kits.

1 May FTDNA Project numbers
U152 2244
DF27 2212

Slowly closing the gap.

MitchellSince1893
06-02-2018, 02:52 AM
1 May FTDNA Project numbers
U152 2244
DF27 2212

Slowly closing the gap.
1 Jun 2018
U152: 2256
DF27: 2230

MitchellSince1893
06-13-2018, 10:05 PM
EDIT: Yesterday DF27 was just 6 behind U152, 2252 vs 2258. Today when I read it was 2164, my mind read 2264 for DF27. They must have just removed a bunch of members. This is done from time to time as people join the projects who shouldn't


https://i.pinimg.com/originals/4f/56/9c/4f569cc69852af0bf22a1d14010f3bb3.png

Osiris
06-13-2018, 11:14 PM
Hmm, actually it looks like 80 something people left the DF27 project.

MitchellSince1893
06-14-2018, 03:52 AM
Hmm, actually it looks like 80 something people left the DF27 project.

I can't count! Yesterday they were within 6 members 2252 to 2258. I missed that it is 2164 and not 2264.

Thanks.

razyn
06-28-2018, 08:27 PM
I noticed in a post today from MikeWwww to a Yahoo group that DF27 has more identified branches, and more SNPs on those branches, than U152. I assume that's because a higher percentage of DF27 project members have been persuaded (so far) to invest in BigY or other NextGen sequencing.

However, L21 has more branches and more SNPs than the combined totals for our brother haplogroups (the sons of ZZ11). I assume that's because there are a bazillion members in that project.

And there are other subclades of P312, also growing apace. Here are Mike's totals for the "big three" below P312:

R1b-M269>L23>L51>P310>P312>L21
2,778 # Branches
13,158 # SNPs

R1b-M269>L23>L51>P310>P312>DF27
797 # Branches
5,571 # SNPs

R1b-M269>L23>L51>P310>P312>U152
526 # Branches
3,562 # SNPs

MitchellSince1893
07-01-2018, 08:44 PM
1 Jun 2018
U152: 2256
DF27: 2230

1 July 2018
U152: 2273
DF27: 2211

Webb
07-02-2018, 01:34 PM
1 July 2018
U152: 2273
DF27: 2211

Thanks. By the way, is your avatar shield made of vinyl? Its nice and shiny.

MitchellSince1893
07-02-2018, 05:27 PM
Thanks. By the way, is your avatar shield made of vinyl? Its nice and shiny.

Image is originally a bitmap. I do it by going into MS powerpoint, inserting the image, click on artistic effect and select "plastic wrap" which gives it a 3d look and light reflection

Before & After

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/13/22/c7/1322c7d68ec656d22d43f2a596f8b6e0.png

razyn
07-03-2018, 03:23 AM
2 July 2018
DF27 2249

Didn't check yours -- we've had a little flurry, since you posted "DF27 2211" yesterday.

lamahorse
07-08-2018, 12:14 AM
Aren't we fantastic!

Osiris
07-11-2018, 08:10 AM
1 to go. It was good while it lasted. Oh well, I've got both in my family. But no L21, the big leader.

razyn
07-11-2018, 04:05 PM
2277 to 2276 this AM, but U152 clings to its lead. Enjoy it while you may.

Edit: as of 1:05 PM (EDT) today the DF27 and U152 projects were tied at 2277 members each.

MitchellSince1893
07-11-2018, 10:45 PM
Breaking News!

FTDNA DF27 project has surpassed FTDNA U152 project in membership.

DF27: 2278
U152: 2277

Back to your regularly scheduled programming

Webb
08-31-2018, 03:36 PM
Breaking News!

FTDNA DF27 project has surpassed FTDNA U152 project in membership.

DF27: 2278
U152: 2277

Back to your regularly scheduled programming

Since it has been a while since Mitchell has posted. As of today:

DF27: 2451
U152: 2315
DF19: 368
L238: 163
DF99: 128
ZZ37: 75

Osiris
08-31-2018, 07:29 PM
Interesting. Of the group volume for DF27 and U152, DF27 is ahead by 2%. But looking at the FTDNA tree there are 866 DF27 nodes and only 564 U152 nodes putting DF27 ahead by 22%. So either DF27 is more efficient at creating new nodes per tester or they join groups at a different rate due to living in different places or because they're finding the group SNP at a more mature moment in FTDNA group history.

There are 7786 nodes in R total. 6531 for R1b. 4670 for P312.

And just to finish off.
DF19: 153
L238: 54
DF99: 32
ZZ37: 30

MitchellSince1893
02-13-2019, 04:12 AM
Update: 12 Feb 2019, FTDNA U152 project reaches 2500 members. Took 1 year, 218 days to add 500 new members.
At this rate we will reach 3000 members around September 2020.

Currently there are 5,532 U152+ samples in the FTDNA database

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/ad/b4/deadb4c0c421d438e85e8e8d9f70578c.png

razyn
03-08-2019, 09:53 PM
As a result of a recent growth spurt, the DF27 project hit 2990 this afternoon, ten to go for another big milestone. In case anyone is still comparing.

Dewsloth
03-08-2019, 10:06 PM
As a result of a recent growth spurt, the DF27 project hit 2990 this afternoon, ten to go for another big milestone. In case anyone is still comparing.

Congrats! DF19 is up to a whopping 400 or so ;)

GoldenHind
03-09-2019, 12:20 AM
Interesting. Of the group volume for DF27 and U152, DF27 is ahead by 2%. But looking at the FTDNA tree there are 866 DF27 nodes and only 564 U152 nodes putting DF27 ahead by 22%. So either DF27 is more efficient at creating new nodes per tester or they join groups at a different rate due to living in different places or because they're finding the group SNP at a more mature moment in FTDNA group history.

There are 7786 nodes in R total. 6531 for R1b. 4670 for P312.

And just to finish off.
DF19: 153
L238: 54
DF99: 32
ZZ37: 30

I suspect the numbers of nodes in the FTDNA tree is directly proportional to the number who have done the Big Y.

razyn
03-10-2019, 10:11 PM
As a result of a recent growth spurt, the DF27 project hit 2990 this afternoon, ten to go for another big milestone. In case anyone is still comparing.

29269

Webb
04-11-2019, 03:50 PM
Update: 12 Feb 2019, FTDNA U152 project reaches 2500 members. Took 1 year, 218 days to add 500 new members.
At this rate we will reach 3000 members around September 2020.

Currently there are 5,532 U152+ samples in the FTDNA database

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/ad/b4/deadb4c0c421d438e85e8e8d9f70578c.png

You haven't posted an update in a while so I don't know if you are busy or possibly depressed over the fact that DF27 has quickly surpassed U152. LOL.

FTDNA L21 Project: 7962
FTDNA DF27 Project: 3129
FTDNA U152 Project: 2554

MitchellSince1893
04-12-2019, 01:15 AM
You haven't posted an update in a while so I don't know if you are busy or possibly depressed over the fact that DF27 has quickly surpassed U152. LOL.

FTDNA L21 Project: 7962
FTDNA DF27 Project: 3129
FTDNA U152 Project: 2554
I have been busy with work, but not depressed. You guys passed us 9 months ago ;).

Plus there's no point in posting in this thread until ~Sep 2020. That's my estimate of when U152 will cross the 3000 mark.

EDIT: I may post sooner if ZZ11 (U152 & DF27) or Z40481 (ZZ11, DF99, ZZ37) surpass the current P312 leader, L21.

Webb
06-03-2019, 03:43 PM
I have been busy with work, but not depressed. You guys passed us 9 months ago ;).

Plus there's no point in posting in this thread until ~Sep 2020. That's my estimate of when U152 will cross the 3000 mark.

EDIT: I may post sooner if ZZ11 (U152 & DF27) or Z40481 (ZZ11, DF99, ZZ37) surpass the current P312 leader, L21.

A different angle:

In the last two months DF27 grew by 124 members, L21 grew by 115, and U152 grew by 35.

MitchellSince1893
06-03-2019, 04:18 PM
A different angle:

In the last two months DF27 grew by 124 members, L21 grew by 115, and U152 grew by 35.
Now that FTDNA has an online haplotree, it may be more useful to track those numbers instead of project #s as only approx half of U152 in FTDNA database are in the project.

razyn
06-03-2019, 04:20 PM
A different angle:

In the last two months DF27 grew by 124 members, L21 grew by 115, and U152 grew by 35.

Why is it that we never hear a stadium full of fans chanting WE ARE NUMBER TWO!!!

MitchellSince1893
06-03-2019, 04:27 PM
Why is it that we never hear a stadium full of fans chanting WE ARE NUMBER TWO!!!

you are number 2

EDIT: you are number 3 if you count U106 in the R1b haplogroup

Today's FTDNA haplotree numbers.

R1b>L23>P310>P312>R-Z290: 20,533
>L21: 20,524

R1b>L23>P310>R-U106: 13,037

R1b>L23>P310>P312>R-ZZ11: 11,715
>DF27: 6,346
>U152: 5,369

R1b>L23>Z2103: 1,182

Non R1b
R1a, M417: 8,688

I-M253: 19,710
I-P215 : 10,724

MitchellSince1893
01-02-2020, 02:07 AM
Posted the end of year FTDNA project and database numbers here.
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?13006-FTDNA-Project-numbers&p=634582&viewfull=1#post634582

While the U152 project grew at 13.6% (a little faster than R1b, P312, L21, but much slower than DF27 and U106);

Over the last year, the total U152 in the FTDNA database grew substantially slower than other major R-haplogroups.
U152: 4.3%

Except for DF27, which is a special case due to late discovery, all the other subclades grew between 9.2% and 12.3%.

DF27 17.1%
L21 12.3%
P312 11.4%
U106 10.6%
R1a 9.5%
R1b ALL Subclades 9.2%

Not sure why U152 has such slow growth compared to the other major R haplogroups.

PS: In post 82 above I estimated the U152 project will cross the 3000 mark in Sep 2020. This still seems about right.

Celt_??
01-02-2020, 03:54 AM
Not sure why U152 has such slow growth compared to the other major R haplogroups.

Thank you, Mike. I am U-152 and am curious too. Is it not because most FTDNA testers are of British decent and R-U152 represents a small percent of the UK Population historically?

MitchellSince1893
01-02-2020, 08:27 AM
Thank you, Mike. I am U-152 and am curious too. Is it not because most FTDNA testers are of British decent and R-U152 represents a small percent of the UK Population historically?

Looking at R1b haplogroups in the FTDNA database for the US (list US as location of earliest known paternal ancestry and where most of the testers are from)
47% are Z290/L21
26% are U106
13% are DF27
8% are U152
2% are DF19
.5% are L238

DF19 is smaller than U152 but it grew at 15.5%, so is L238 and it grew at 16.8%. So it's not because U152 has smaller representation in the US pop. as even smaller haplogroups have much higher growth.

I'm at a loss to explain it. Maybe it's just a 1 year oddity

Webb
01-02-2020, 02:33 PM
I think it has more to do with haplotype density in a population, that population size, and testing habits of that population. DF27 has highest density in Spain and Portugal, which is 40% to 50%, depending on which studies you look at. Next is the size of that population. You also have to take into account colonies of Portugal and Spain, ie. Latin America, and testing habits of those populations. I think testing is increasing in Spain, Portugal, and Latin America, so this is going to give DF27 a increase in growth, potentially, then say L21 which given it's highest density in the British Isles and how long testing for L21 has been available, may have already hit its peak testing. So if U152 is densest in Northern Italy, at say 35%, I am just guessing, but this area is not as populated as say Spain/Portugal, because it is a smaller area, and testing is not as popular in Northern Italy, than there won't be as much growth with U152 testing as DF27.

MitchellSince1893
01-02-2020, 05:18 PM
As these maps show there was significant emigration from Northern Italy. Maybe Italian Americans are much less likely to do DNA tests?
http://www.grandvoyageitaly.com/uploads/3/7/2/7/37277491/migration-italienne-par-r-gions-1876-1915_orig.jpg

For what ever reason, U152 is well below every other group in annual growth (far right column).

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/09/a2/50/09a250e41a98b05a715698bec8a991db.png

MitchellSince1893
01-02-2020, 06:02 PM
I removed the following comments from my previous post so they don't get over looked.


What's odd is that the U152 project increased by 331 members from 12/31/2018 to 12/31/2019, This is typical for the project as we average around 25-30 new members per month over the last few years.

While the overall FTDNA U152 database only increased by 237 during this period.

Normally, less than 50% of the U152 database joins the U152 project.

Something isn't adding up. I'm almost wondering if the FTDNA database number is accurate for U152.

Titane
01-11-2020, 07:26 PM
As these maps show there was significant emigration from Northern Italy. Maybe Italian Americans are much less likely to do DNA tests?
http://www.grandvoyageitaly.com/uploads/3/7/2/7/37277491/migration-italienne-par-r-gions-1876-1915_orig.jpg

For what ever reason, U152 is well below every other group in annual growth (far right column).

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/09/a2/50/09a250e41a98b05a715698bec8a991db.png
The proportion of Italian emigrants from the North is much smaller than middle/south.
As a test, Italian food in American restaurants is pizza, lasagna, spaghetti, much more rare to find risotto and veal scaloppini.
Look at the Italian FT-DNA Project (which doesn’t seem very active) U-152 are very few.

Ayetooey
01-11-2020, 07:30 PM
The coolest R1b branch IMO. :)

MitchellSince1893
09-12-2020, 03:25 PM
Update: 12 Feb 2019, FTDNA U152 project reaches 2500 members. Took 1 year, 218 days to add 500 new members.
At this rate we will reach 3000 members around September 2020.

Currently there are 5,532 U152+ samples in the FTDNA database

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/ad/b4/deadb4c0c421d438e85e8e8d9f70578c.png



My estimate of when the FTDNA U152 project would cross the 3000 mark is going to off by a few months.

Growth has slowed for whatever reason...maybe introduction FTDNA Haplotree provides less incentive to join the project. Project used to average about 26 new members per month. Average since post above is just under 20 per month.

Or has overall y dna testing at FTDNA slowed down?

Anyway, today the U152 project has 2874 members and the FTDNA database has 6223 U152 samples

By comparison today
DF27 has 7349 samples in database and 3935 in project
ZZ11 (DF27 & U152) has 13572 in database
Z290 (parent of L21) has 24912
U106 has 15046

MitchellSince1893
12-31-2020, 10:05 PM
End of year numbers

U152 project: 2908. An annual increase of 5.3%
U152 in FTDNA database: 6385. An annual increase of 11.8%

DF27 project: 4009. An annual increase of 10.3%
DF27 in FTDNA database: 7668. An annual increase of 10.6%

Overall ZZ11 (U152 & DF27): Had 14053 and had an annual increase of 11.1%
L21 (25351 in database) had annual increase of 15.3%
U106 (15369) had annual increase of 11.4%

TigerMW
01-15-2021, 03:12 AM
I removed the following comments from my previous post so they don't get over looked.


What's odd is that the U152 project increased by 331 members from 12/31/2018 to 12/31/2019, This is typical for the project as we average around 25-30 new members per month over the last few years.

While the overall FTDNA U152 database only increased by 237 during this period.

Normally, less than 50% of the U152 database joins the U152 project.

Something isn't adding up. I'm almost wondering if the FTDNA database number is accurate for U152.

I don't know if this is the reason, but it may be a contributor. I subgroup people in the R1b All Subclades Project. A lot of people join it as R-M269 predicted. My guess is that about 1 out of 8 or 9 that do Big Y700 come out as U152. The project is large so I haven't been doing the subgrouping and joining people the last 7-8 months. I'm about to try to catch but it will take a few weeks to do so.

MitchellSince1893
03-17-2021, 11:16 PM
Currently sitting at 1981 members https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/r-1b-u152/about/background.

Took 8 years and 8 months to get the first 1000, and 3 years and 3 months to get to the next 1000.

3 years, 9 months, 12 days after I started this thread, we are closing in on 3000 members...currently at 2990.

MitchellSince1893
03-22-2021, 03:18 AM
2995. 5 to go

alchemist223
03-22-2021, 08:28 AM
Let's do this!!! :)

MitchellSince1893
03-23-2021, 02:21 PM
1 to go

MitchellSince1893
03-24-2021, 02:39 PM
3000 members in FTDNA U152 project on March 24th 2021
https://i.pinimg.com/474x/7a/d6/4e/7ad64e70cf021d37515be70bcac73535.jpg

On this day there are 6624 U152+ men in FTDNA Haplotree database.

For comparison, brother clade has 4094 members and 7871 in database

Dewsloth
03-24-2021, 03:40 PM
^^Congrats!! :beerchug: The DF19 Group is up to (checks notes) 526 :lol:
But 988 in the 'tree.

Kellebel
03-24-2021, 08:27 PM
Can you re-apply if you have been removed previously? (I was removed for not having tested atleast Y37 at FTDNA, but I tested my father at YSEQ.)

MitchellSince1893
03-24-2021, 09:26 PM
Can you re-apply if you have been removed previously? (I was removed for not having tested atleast Y37 at FTDNA, but I tested my father at YSEQ.)

Contact lead admin Steve Gilbert [email protected] and Z56 admin
Vincent van der Heijden [email protected]

and let them know your situation. They will be able to assist.

MitchellSince1893
05-15-2021, 09:08 PM
Something really strange is going on with the FTDNA Haplotree numbers for U152. The total has jumped from 6624 on 3/24/2021 to 8517...that's more than DF27 which currently has 8000.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/4c/90/ae/4c90aeca47d3c653b93b092c06bb13dc.png

There's no way they could have added almost 1900 new U152 samples in less than 2 months.

On 12/31/2021 the numbers were
U152 in FTDNA database: 6385.
DF27 in FTDNA database: 7668.

G Livesey
05-16-2021, 02:54 AM
Something really strange is going on with the FTDNA Haplotree numbers for U152. The total has jumped from 6624 on 3/24/2021 to 8517...that's more than DF27 which currently has 8000.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/4c/90/ae/4c90aeca47d3c653b93b092c06bb13dc.png

There's no way they could have added almost 1900 new U152 samples in less than 2 months.

On 12/31/2021 the numbers were
U152 in FTDNA database: 6385.
DF27 in FTDNA database: 7668.

L2 alone is 6126

Do you know its previous numbers.

MitchellSince1893
05-16-2021, 05:21 AM
L2 alone is 6126

Do you know its previous numbers.

No but probably in the 4000s. L2 makes up roughly 2/3rds to 70% of all U152. So if U152 6624 on March 24th, then L2 was probably around 4400 on that date. I would guess that before this jump occurred, L2 was around 4500.

Dewsloth
05-16-2021, 05:31 AM
I was going to say maybe they got access to another service's numbers, but If there isn't a corresponding jump in some of the other P312 clades, I guess that can't be it.

MitchellSince1893
05-16-2021, 05:39 AM
The jump in numbers appears to be concentrated in/solely concentrated in the "unknown" location category and occurred in the last couple of days.

All these additions appear to be in U152>L2>Z258>Z367 branch. I say this because the L2>Z49 branch and the L2>Z258>Z367 are normally close to the same size in numbers (I used to be a FTDNA U152 project admin so I'm familiar with this relationship)

At present Z258 has 3084 samples of which 2319 are of unknown origin. Z49 has 1198 samples of which 574 are unknown origin.

Drilling down further the "glitch" additions are located in U152>L2>Z258>Z367>L20>CTS9733>BY3584>S26186.
S26186 has 1882 unknown origin samples and 257 samples with country origins.

So that's where the glitch/issue in their database #s is located.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/b1/10/c3/b110c3f69399fcfe3d297651f78bff3c.png

Dewsloth
05-16-2021, 04:17 PM
Maybe a data entry error. Perhaps a double-tap on the 8 and it’s really 182.

MitchellSince1893
05-19-2021, 04:53 PM
I emailed an old contact at FTDNA but haven’t heard anything back.

MitchellSince1893
05-22-2021, 05:18 AM
The glitch has gone away. U152 has gone from 8517 to 6642 samples, and

U152>L2>Z258>Z367>L20>CTS9733>BY3584>S26186 has gone from 2139 samples to 5.