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Earl Davis
08-10-2017, 01:44 PM
Legend of the Pale Rider (A P312 story)

Horsen shuffled closer to the fire and sat with the other children of the tribe. They sat and listed to the old elder, last of his generation. Vorden, the elder was in his 80th year now. It was the first night of a week long of celebrations making the 500th year, by most guesses at least since the birth of the Pale Rider and the begging time of their people. The children had gathered to hear the elder speak of the oral history of the tribe. Vodern began to speak in a whisper.

Legends say he rode out of the East on a pale horse. If he came alone or rode here with his tribesmen we no longer know. If he came with others there are no longer sons left here to sing their songs. Only we remain, the tribe of the pale rider.

Some say he hunted in the wilderness from boyhood until his 26th year when he first met and lay with the clan mother. He had perhaps 9 children but we now only remember his son who some say was his fifth child. If did have nine and some say more, others less then by tradition we now say.

Children
1. A daughter born when he was 27
2. A son born when he was 29 died in infancy
3. A Son born when he was 31 killed whilst hunting
4. A daughter born when he was 33 died in infancy
5. A Son born when he was 35 who lived to grow old, and had children of his own including a son.
6. A daughter born when he was 37.
7. A Son born when he was 39 who lived to grow old and had daughters who survived
8. A daughter born when he was 41 who drowned in the flood
9. A Son born when he was 43 who lived and had sons who died without issue.

And so the pale rider despite a large family had only one grandson to carry on his male progeny. Vorden lowered his voice even further. I am the last of 13th generation of the tribe of the pale rider. I was born in 420th year since the birth of the rider and I was one of 24 cousins born of my generation who are the ancestors of all those in the tribe today. There were other cousins in our generation but they have no grandsons now to sing their sons.

Horsen raised his hand. 'Edler' he asked, 'Now the tribe is getting bigger and more are moving away how will our grandchildren remember our story? 'They will not' replied Vorden for our people will thrive in this place and grown in number and fill all the lands for the endless plains to the great water and into the lands beyond. But fear not young Horsen for the Pale Rider foresaw this and our story is written deep into our very beings in a secret code and prophesy foretells that one day 5 millennium hence the code will be uncovered and our story will be known again.

*****

In my next post we will leave the fiction of Horen and Vorden behind and I will try and explain why I am possibly not really insane and what this thread is really supposed to be about.

Earl Davis
08-10-2017, 01:59 PM
Ok, so what this thread is going to be about are my musings on who the heck we got from a single man born less than 5,000 years ago (Mr. P312) the Pale Rider of the above story to millions and millions of descendants today.

I have struggled to visualise what the world looked like then in terms of where did he come from and who did he come with? Did he come alone, with a small group or a large group. If he came with a large group of close and distant relatives why did they leave no descendants today? Who was here when he settled. Were there lots of people where he settled or only a few? If there were large numbers where did they go to as only a handful of men in other haplogroups seem to have surviving direct male line ancestors today. How many children did he have and how many children did his descendants have?

Using a combination of some facts, plenty of assumptions and a sprinkling of imagination I am going to try and hypotheses one possible version of how the heck did we get from Mr. P312 to here.

jdean
08-10-2017, 02:23 PM
If we assume 3 generations per 100 yrs (many argue it should be higher and also it will further increase as you go back in time) and two surviving male lines per generation (which isn't going to happen) then you end up with 1.9 x 10^35 times more people than are on earth today, even if we drop the number of surviving males down to 1.2 you end up with 100 x the world population.

Of course this is far too simplistic but at least it demonstrates 5000 yrs is plenty of time for one lucky branch to dominate Western Europe.

R.Rocca
08-10-2017, 02:26 PM
Love the story and I would definitely buy the book :D

The only thing I would change is the word pale. Yes, he may have been pale compared to the global population of that time, but most riders would have been sun baked the way even the fairest skinned roofer is today... that is, assuming they didn't wear hats.

Earl Davis
08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
We don't yet know when Mr. P312 was born. I have seen estimates from 4,000 to 5,000 years ago and I am currently using 2,643 BCE in other calculations. For the purposes of this thread I am starting in year 0 with year 0 simply indicating the year Mr. P312 was born.

We know Mr. P312 was a real person. Most? people currently think he lived in Europe and that he or his recent ancestors came from the East. Was he part of a large group of R1b people? I struggle to see that he was simply because it's hard to see if there were hundreds of people with him that almost every single one of their lines died out. Was he part of a large group of men who were not closely related (a mixture of haplogroups)? Again it's hard to envisage and most other haplogroup only seem to have a few men who like Mr. P312 have serving progeny today. So based on that I am imagining Mr. P312 as being from a small group or even alone at the point of having his family.

I am working on an assumption for this model of 70 years per useful Y Chromosome mutation and 35 years. I usually use 30 or 33 years but 35 per generation being nicely divisible into 70 per mutation. The 70 years is also debatable but the more recent cutting edge tests (not BigY) seem to be leaning towards that kind of range and it seems to be getting better all the time. I am also using an assumption that mutations happen evenly and where the order an snp happened in is not currently known I am going to guess for the time being and correct later.

So back to Mr. P312. How many children did he have? Was he some kind of Warrior settled in one place with many partners? Did he go around from place to place having his evil way with locals across large swathes of Europe? Did have a small regular family? Did have a medium size regular family? I played about with a few of these scenarios and a small to medium size family seems to fit best with the SNP patterns. I will show what I mean by this shortly.

So trying to imagine a sort of family that works with the assumed 30 years per generation and 70 years per SNP. I am imagining the following about Mr. P312 and his descendants for the first 13 generations.

Year 0: Mr. P312 is born (4-5 millennia ago)
Age 26: Meets a woman
Age 27: First child
Age 29: Second child
Age 31: Third child
Age: 33 Fourth child
Age 35: Fifth child
Age 37: Sixth child
Age 39: Seventh child
Age 41: Eighth child
Age 43: Ninth Child

The Fifth chid at age 35 gives us that nice average age per generation. I am going to imagine that this pattern of about 9 children between the ages of 27 and 41 is going carry on for the next few generations.

So what happens to these children? It seems likely there would be a few infant deaths, a combination of daughters and sons, some dying as adults without any issue, some that did have children but only the daughters survived and of course some that had one or more surviving sons otherwise P312 people would not be here now.

The story of the Pale Rider in post one suggests that Mr. P312's children did not immediately go forth and multiply and I will get onto that in my next post.

Earl Davis
08-10-2017, 02:45 PM
Love the story and I would definitely buy the book :D

The only thing I would change is the word pale. Yes, he may have been pale compared to the global population of that time, but most riders would have been sun baked the way even the fairest skinned roofer is today... that is, assuming they didn't wear hats.

It was his horse that was pale.:angel:

Earl Davis
08-10-2017, 02:51 PM
The only real fact we do know at this point is that Mr. P312 had a son and I am going to have him born in the year 35 after Mr. P312 was born. With one mutation per 70 years there is roughly a 50% chance Mr. P312's son had one but I am going to say not. He could have been an only child. He could have had 100 siblings whose lies were quickly wiped out but I am sticking with my small to medium size family model for now.

So here is the beginning of our family tree for Mr. P312. Showing only sons and only those sons who have living descendants today. I would have liked to include all but the tree diagrams would be too unwieldy. So Here is Mr. P312, his son who is factual and with his imaginary 8 siblings excluded as they had no identifiable living descendants today.

18051

Earl Davis
08-10-2017, 03:01 PM
Moving ahead we are at generation 3 already. The son of Mr. P312 (The man with No. SNP) had a life similar to his father. Small to medium size family but only one son who had sons whose lines service today. There is a 50% this grandson of Mr. P312 had an SNP. As his father did not get one I am allocating it to this generation.

Here is the family tree at generation 3.18052

Hopefully you can see where this is going now. Rather than an SNP tree this is trying to model the actual family tree of these real people who existed and although there is a lot of imagination in the text of these posts the tree is more factual although it does have to rely on the assumptions.

Earl.

Earl Davis
08-10-2017, 03:14 PM
CTS12684 the 'grandson' of Mr. P312 in our model (Yes CTS12684 could have been the son, grandson, great grandson or Mr. P312 himself, or CTS12684 was really the originator and P312 the descendant) is not very well known and not always show on tress. We are including him and his like here because as we work through the generations the timeline especially the comparative timeline will make it easier to understand elapsed time and who was really a peer to who and who was a likely, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th,....9th cousin to who.

Like his father and grandfather before him we imagine a similar life and family size for Mr. CTS12684 with one surviving son who has living descendants today. So here is the tree out to generation 4. This son of CTS12684 had a 50% chance of an SNP and I am not going to assign him one.

18053

So we are now 4 generations in. On our model it's 105 years after the birth of Mr. P312 and his line seems little advanced since the birth of Mr. P312 himself. The alternative model is that Mr. P312 had a few or lots more decedent men at this point whose lines were later wiped out but again we stick with our small to medium family.



Earl.

Earl Davis
08-10-2017, 03:27 PM
Our model suggest the son of CTS12684 was born about 105 years after P312. Unlike his forebears he had more surviving sons or grandsons whose lines survive today. He either had a larger family than his forebears, or more of his children survived to adulthood or he simply had many more sons than daughters.

He had at least 7 sons or grandsons who survived and have surviving male line descendants today. They were born around the year 140 after P312 and I am giving them the same birth year to keep the model simple. They had a 50% chance of having a mutation we can identify. To keep things simple I am going to put those in this generation and none in the next.

So here is the tree at generation 5.

18054

So it's now 140 years after the birth of Mr. P312 and I am not feeling like there is a massive tribe of his descendants ready to swarm across Europe. Instead I am feeling more like a small family hanging onto existence by the skin of their teeth. Also when some people ask where DF19 or Z290 were born hopefully showing this type of family tree shows how unlikely it might be for example for the son of Mr. CTS12684 to have had Mr. DF19 in Germany (or wherever) then had Mr. Z290 in Ireland before moving to Norway (or wherever) for the birth of Mr. L238. This was a small family group.

Earl Davis
08-10-2017, 03:34 PM
None of the sons or grandsons of generation 5 seem to have had large surviving families. The year is now 175 after the birth of P312 the family is still small. Were they still living in close proximity or had they splintered and started to move into other areas? They could not have splinted much if at all as there do not seem to be many of them around to splinter off.

Here is the generation 6 family tree.

18055

The No name branch is what commonly gets called P312*

Earl Davis
08-10-2017, 03:59 PM
Hopefully my ramblings to this point have explained my approach here and I don't see the need to keep the story narrative for each successive generation so I am moving forward to generation 13 in the next diagram. This is as far down the tree as I intended to go. What this diagram shows is that it is now 420 years after the birth of Mr. P312. The tribe had grown. We don't know how big but at this point we only know of 24 men living in generation13 who have living descendants today. I am sure this number will grown as new finds come in but I doubt it will grown by much.

Perhaps interestingly by generation 10 the smart money may have been on the progeny of Mr. ZZ38 being the dominant line. By generation 13 Mr. U152 was looking like the contender.

It's a little easier to imagine at this point, 420 years after the story began that this group has started to spread out across Europe but there still seems so very few of them. Even if our 24 men in generation 13 represent only 10% of P312's descendants at that point and the other 90% represent lines that died out that still only gives us a little more than 200 male descendants around at the time.

The descendants of ZZ38 and the U152/DF27 cousins seem much closely related than the other branch's at this time. The branches at most distance from each other were at the most 8th cousins to each other. Were some family links still known at this point between these 8th cousins? Were some cousins trading with others?

Here is the 13th generation diagram with the 24 peers shown on the bottom row in the year 420 after P312. These 24 are the ancestors of all later P312 in this model.

18056

Note you may need to click on the diagram two or three times to get it big enough to read.

Earl Davis
08-10-2017, 04:24 PM
Right. That's my first volley of posts done. You can it and think well I think it should be 25, or 30 or 33 years per generation or 65, 75 or 80 years mutation rate so I think L21 probably happened in generation 12 or 14 or 15 and not generation 13 or DF27 and U152 should be 1st cousins once removed and not 1st cousins of same generation but none of that seems to me would chance the model family tree that much.

I did this tree to help me understand family size and development and would might be been where by when. When you see a family tree rather than an SNP tree it does present a different view so seeing that DF27 and U152 were probably 1st cousins or 1st cousins once removed and may well have been born in the same decade to each other and then someone says one was born in Iberia and his 1st cousin in Germany and they migrated not as a big group but as singles or tiny groups as there just were just not enough P312 descendants to go around. Does it seem likely that L2's real 8th cousin L21 had made it to Ireland at that point?

Taking L2 as an example, we can see potential real life relationships, brother of Z42, 3rd cousin of Z195, 6th cousin of FGC846 and Z39301, 8th cousin of DF88 and L21.

Another thing I take from this is that I can't see the chieftain hypothesis in play here where a chief had many 'wife's' and a massive amount of children.

Dewsloth
08-10-2017, 04:41 PM
Hopefully my ramblings to this point have explained my approach here and I don't see the need to keep the story narrative for each successive generation so I am moving forward to generation 13 in the next diagram. This is as far down the tree as I intended to go. What this diagram shows is that it is now 420 years after the birth of Mr. P312. The tribe had grown. We don't know how big but at this point we only know of 24 men living in generation who have living descendants today. I am sure this number will grown as new finds come in but I doubt it will grown by much.

Perhaps interestingly by generation 10 the smart money may have been on the progeny of Mr. ZZ38 being the dominant line. By generation 13 Mr. U152 was looking like the contender.

It's a little easier to imagine at this point, 420 years after the story began that this group has started to spread out across Europe but there still seems very few of them. Even if our 24 men in generation 13 represent only 10% of P312's descendants at that point and the other 90 represent lines that died out that still only gives us a little more than 200 male descendants around at the time.

The descendants of ZZ38 and the U152/DF27 cousins seem much closely related than the other branch's at this time. The branches at most distant from each other were at the most 8th cousins to each other. Were some family links still known at this point between these 8th cousins? Were some cousins trading with others?

Here is the 13th generation diagram with the 24 peers shown on the bottom row in the year 420 after P312. These 24 are the ancestors of all later P312 in this model.

18056

Note you may need to click on the diagram two or three times to get it big enough to read.

So it's at (or past) the bottom row when we see Beakerdom entering the British Isles. With 200 male descendants, at this point that's barely a tribe; and yet the population proceeds to rocket out.

Maybe the Pale Horse carried something like the mumps and caused infertility/sterility in the cultures they came in contact with?

razyn
08-10-2017, 05:30 PM
Maybe the Pale Horse carried something like the mumps and caused infertility/sterility in the cultures they came in contact with?
Also these guys were pastoralists, and that branch of the farming folk knew of the relationship between castration and docility at least by 4,000 BC. No real reason to assume they only practiced it upon their oxen, as they made their noble and heroic way into central and western Europe.