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View Full Version : P312XL21XU152XDF27 potentially ancestral for L21-possible testing strategy



alan
08-30-2013, 12:20 PM
I was wondering about how this is shaping up. By potentially ancestral to L21, I simply mean that there is no SNP immediately downstream that splits them. It must always be recalled that the P312 that was ancestral to L21 would have subsequently experienced its own SNPs and that does not mean that this rules out it being ancestral to L21. In fact, unless the SNP is older than L21 then virtually any P312XL21XU152XDF27 could be ancestral to L21. We also cannot expect STRs to be very helpful as by definition there has been 4500 years of separation between them so they STRs will have diverged as well as later SNPs occurring.

So, as far as I can see, all P312XL21XU152XDF27 is potentially ancestral to L21. Clearly true P312* must have originally been continental. Anyway, I have read that virtually all of the old P312* in Iberia is DF27. So, what is the pattern for P312XL21XU152XDF27 at present? Is there a list? I expect it to be isles dominated for the usual reasons but any continental examples, especially from undersamples countries, could be highly significant. I do expect the lack of sampling in France to be a problem as usual.

I just wonder if it is worth throwing money at revisiting those French people that Rich and myself worked on and helped fund test for L21 but who proved negative. By definition of having tested negative for L21 they are one step closer to a P312XL21XU152XDF27 and would be cheaper to confirm.

rms2
08-30-2013, 12:31 PM
. . .

I just wonder if it is worth throwing money at revisiting those French people that Rich and myself worked on and helped fund test for L21 but who proved negative. By definition of having tested negative for L21 they are one step closer to a P312XL21XU152XDF27 and would be cheaper to confirm.

Unfortunately, it has been a few years since you and I had so much success recruiting random Frenchmen for L21 testing, and I did not keep a list of those who came up L21-. I had one at one time, but no more. I might be able to look at the French Heritage Project when I get the chance and remember who some of them were.

alan
08-30-2013, 01:43 PM
Unfortunately, it has been a few years since you and I had so much success recruiting random Frenchmen for L21 testing, and I did not keep a list of those who came up L21-. I had one at one time, but no more. I might be able to look at the French Heritage Project when I get the chance and remember who some of them were.

Oh well. I suppose there must be a number of people on the French project who are maybe just one or two tests away from being defined as P312XL21XU152XDF27. However, this sort of thing can be done, if possible at all, I think getting a better understanding of continental P312XL21XU152XDF27 could be one of the only ways to help clarrify the L21 story.

I suppose the other costless way is to simply look at the percentage of current P312xL21Xu152 in each country then adjust that to a figure for likley true P312XL21XU152XDF27 based on what percentage of P312xL21Xu152 has so far come in as DF27 negative. I am primarily interested in France, the Low Countries and Rhine in this regard because we know true P312* has to be continental in origin and we know L21 must have got to the isles from a nearby shore. Its just really a question of working out the likely route towards the higher L21 zone and whether it was more towards the west of France or the Rhine. They seem to be the main options for beaker period spread.

The suspicion exists that P312 occurred somewhere like the western Alps, SE France etc but it would be nice to get a better idea of this by testing more continental people that are currently not tested up to a level that defines them fully as P312XL21XU152XDF27. That group of course is of interest to anyone interested in the roots of U152 and DF27 as well as L21. Like, L51 and L11, true P312* may be fairly scarce. However, it may have a pattern that will jump out once enough test to the level to define it. It would be of pan-P312 interest. It already seems established that Iberia's old P312 is almost entirely DF27 so it would probably be extremely painful to look for true P312 there. It already for various reasons looks extremely unlikely to be the origin point of P312. I think if there were funds then it would be a very good project to fund testing of continentals in France, the Low Countries, the Rhine area and the western Alps who have not yet tested for DF27 but have tested for the other SNPs.

My suspicion is that P312 occurred in the Alps or SE France as spread from there in multiple directions. It looks to me like Iberia was really a DF27offshoot and U152 occurred close to the P312 homeland. However, L21 has its continental areas of strenght at some distance from this likely P312 origin point. That suggests to me that L21 may have a relatively geographically long P312* trail behind it. That would appear to be a trail that most likely led from somewhere around the western edge of the Alps and towards the north of France either through the major north flowing rivers of France or up the Rhine. L21 is also somewhat younger than U152 and DF 27 according to some calculations, another reason for thinking it may have the most detectable and longer ancestral P312* trail. It seems unlikely to me that there was a maritime leap for L21 (as there could have been for DF27) and I would suspect a trail passing through the rivers of France or the Rhine. I would love to see an effort to fully test P312 for L21, U152 and DF27 to resolution along those sort of axes. I think we would learn something useful from that. Easier to say that do though as it would need funds and work.

alan
08-31-2013, 04:00 PM
So, is there a list anywhere of confirmed P312xL21xU152xDF27 anywhere?

GoldenHind
08-31-2013, 09:20 PM
So, is there a list anywhere of confirmed P312xL21xU152xDF27 anywhere?

You should also exclude L238 and DF19. There is a list of those who have tested negative for every currently available SNP directly below P312. They are generally referred to as P312**. This list can be found on the R1b-P312 and Subclades public website, under YDNA results, section Ba. I believe there are currently 36 people on the list. However, before you try to read too much into it, you should be aware that some unknown portion of this group is likely to be positive for the newly discovered SNP DF99. FTDNA has not yet begun offering testing for DF99, but it is hoped they will do so soon.

rms2
08-31-2013, 09:26 PM
I understand Thomas Krahn has left FTDNA, so God help us. :(

GoldenHind
08-31-2013, 10:59 PM
I understand Thomas Krahn has left FTDNA, so God help us. :(

If that is correct, it does not bode well for the future of SNP testing at FTDNA.

jdean
08-31-2013, 11:10 PM
If that is correct, it does not bode well for the future of SNP testing at FTDNA.

Unfortunately I've got to agree, Thomas was the flag waver for this side of DNA testing at FTDNA.

Even just losing Ymap would be a bitter blow.

alan
09-03-2013, 03:03 AM
Of course, downstream SNPs below P312 only rule out a clade as being ancestral to L21 if their defining SNP is older than L21. Otherwise the SNP could have occurred on a line ancestral to L21 after L21 had branched off. Given that L21 is not too much younger than P312 any SNP would have to have happened very soon after P312 to rule out the possibility the line was ancestral to L21. So, working out which SNPs below P312 are older than L21 is important. So, far its probably fair to say that DF27 and U152 may be a little older but are these new SNPs older than L21?



You should also exclude L238 and DF19. There is a list of those who have tested negative for every currently available SNP directly below P312. They are generally referred to as P312**. This list can be found on the R1b-P312 and Subclades public website, under YDNA results, section Ba. I believe there are currently 36 people on the list. However, before you try to read too much into it, you should be aware that some unknown portion of this group is likely to be positive for the newly discovered SNP DF99. FTDNA has not yet begun offering testing for DF99, but it is hoped they will do so soon.

alan
09-03-2013, 03:21 AM
Having looked at the various clades on the P312 and subclades FTDNA project maps that would fall into the p312xL21x U152xDF27 category, including P312** and DF19, it is striking how many seem to fall in the north-east France, Low Countries and western Germany. Is this a trace of the Rhenish beaker groups? Could some of them be ancestral to L21? The distribution does not appear to be down to the Palatine German diaspora and many of the continental hits fall into not especially well sampled areas.

alan
09-03-2013, 01:28 PM
Having looked at the various clades on the P312 and subclades FTDNA project maps that would fall into the p312xL21x U152xDF27 category, including P312** and DF19, it is striking how many seem to fall in the north-east France, Low Countries and western Germany. Is this a trace of the Rhenish beaker groups? Could some of them be ancestral to L21? The distribution does not appear to be down to the Palatine German diaspora and many of the continental hits fall into not especially well sampled areas.

On the other hand in the isles a lot of the names seem to be Scottish or north English and there is no clearcut native Irish names. With DF19 I have a suspicion there would be a Norman link in the isles.

One thing that seems clear enough to me is an awful lot of these P312xL21xU152xDF27 clades look rather northern. That is a little surprising initially but it may make sense. If U152 and DF27 arose very fast after P312 with little time for P312** to leave remnants but there was a delay before L21 arose, there would need to have been a period of P312xL21xU152xDF27 in or en-route towards the more north-westerly areas where L21 and other P312xL21xU152xDF27 clades are significant. The results so far indicate that this group had a northern trajectory. That fits fairly well. Also by definition L21, assuming there is any ancestral remnant remaining, must have come from such a P312xL21xU152xDF27 line as some sort of splinter. Right now the distribution of the various P312xL21xU152xDF27 lines would be suggestive of a Rhenish route to me although I am not convinced that these clades actually entered the isles until much later times. L21 may have been the major offshoot that came to dominate the metal-rich triangle between NW France, Britain and Ireland and probably a wider area around that. That would require the sort of maritime skill that central Europeans were unlikely to have. Lack of any P312xL21xU152xDF27 seems to rule out an Iberian route for the ancestors of L21, as of course does a lack of L21 itself in Portugal.

You could argue that the Rhine is the only large enough river system with a northern trajectory where people might have such skills prior to reaching the coast. The Rhine mouth area although a strategic trade point lacked metal sources. Exploring along the English channel and beyond would have made them aware of the ore potential of the rocky lands of NW France as well as the west of the isles. I dont think that would have been rocket science. Spotting areas of rock exposures, cliffs and rocky hills and mountains would have been the starting point for looking for potential ore areas before finer skills were used. We now have evidence of more classic beaker single burials along the French side of the channel suggesting that some east-west movement did happen across northern France in that period. We also know that there was apparently a network who mined, manufactured and distributed Ross Island copper and Irish gold around Britain and northern France in the early beaker period of that area. That cut across any local differences in beaker traditions between these areas. It seems extremely likely to me that that group was L21 rich. This triangle of contacts was very long lasting, still operating nearly 2000 years later. This would seem to be L21's raison d'etre - control of the metal trade of northern France and the isles.

GoldenHind
09-03-2013, 05:59 PM
Both DF19 and P312**, which includes an undetermined amount of DF99, appear to be primarily northern European in distribution. I don't think we have a good handle yet on the age of DF19, and we know next to nothing about DF99. Also an open question is how many other subclades yet to be identified compose the remainder of P312**.

Mikewww
09-13-2013, 02:47 AM
... I just wonder if it is worth throwing money at revisiting those French people that Rich and myself worked on and helped fund test for L21 but who proved negative. By definition of having tested negative for L21 they are one step closer to a P312XL21XU152XDF27 and would be cheaper to confirm.

What is worthing spending money is a value judgement that depends on the spender, but from a general perspective, our French DNA testing is woefully weak and it is potentially a critical area for P312, L11* and L51*. I think every P312+ person should test L21, U152, DF27 at a minimum. I call them P312's Big Three because they do cover P312 nicely. DF19, L238 and DF99 are public SNP players, but at such a lower level I couldn't really promote testing for those except for matches or for double asterisk attitude (aggressive) testers.

It would be nice to find out more about French P312's distribution and if there are pockets of P312*.


So, is there a list anywhere of confirmed P312xL21xU152xDF27 anywhere?

I've got that in the P312xL21 spreadsheet but I can't access it right now. I can pretty easily identify who's P312+ but not tested for all of the Big Three in the French project and a few other people who didn't join that project that claim French MDKAs if that is something you want to do. I would recommend pursuing people with 67 or more STRs only. The sequence of testing could be based on a couple of factors, including STR GDs/patterns and geography.

A P312+ person located along the Atlantic from probably as far north as Normandy along to somewhere close to the Garonne might have L21 as a best shot, southern and south/central perhaps DF27 and all along the east probably U152.

Charles Moore of the U106 has offered "specials" for first "X" people to test will get an X% discount, where the discount is covered by donations.

The old P312 project admin, Henry Zenker, had a deal for DF27 among a group he selected. If you came out negative, he'd pay, I think was the deal.