View Full Version : Subclade Predictor Part Deux

12-20-2017, 05:20 PM
I saw that another individual on here asked a very similar question to one that I would also like an answer to, so I didn't know what else to call this thread *haha*

I've ran my father's Y-DNA through a predictor several times over several years and these are a few of the top predictions that he's received:

I-M253-AS4 =>33% I-M253-AS9a =>28% I-M253-AS3 =>10%

I-M253-AS9a =>35% I-M253-AS4 =>17% I-M253-AS3 =>10%

I-M253-AS9a =>25% I-M253-AS4 =>23% I-M253-AS3 =>15%

In the last year or so the Nevgen Predictor has become the go-to prediction model, but the problem is that my father's Y-DNA doesn't get assigned to anywhere on it. It comes back with 99.8% unrecognisable, so this older predictor is the only one I have to work with.

At FTDNA he's currently Z-59 (likely Z-60) and I'll have to do further testing; but I was just wondering if anyone knows roughty what AS4 and AS9a correspond to.

Thanks for any assistance!

12-24-2017, 11:19 AM
Nevgen is usually pretty reliable if it can correlate the STRs to a known SNP, but seems to struggle if it doesn't have a good reference and reports back "unsupported subclade". It's a good predictor, but no predictor is perfect. They seem to update it reasonably often so it's worth checking back.

I wasn't involved in genetic genealogy when Ken Nordtvedt assigned the I1 Y-STR groupings into their Norse, Ultra-Norse, Anglo-Saxon (AS) groupings. These were mostly all developed before the SNP tree of the I1 haplogroup which most people seem to use these days, so I'm much more familiar with the latter method.

However, on Eupedia's I1 page at https://www.eupedia.com/europe/Haplogroup_I1_Y-DNA.shtml they say that "Z73+ (and L1301+) is chiefly northern Scandinavian and Finnish. It is also found in Russia, on the east coast of Britain and the Scottish Isles (Viking heritage). Z73+ corresponds to AS9 and AS16 in FTDNA's STR-based nomenclature" - Z73+ is downstream of Z59 and Z60.

I couldn't find much reference to AS4, but I think I remember some discussions that it was an outlier branch associated with Wales. I think I remember it was also found in other places in England or the continent but more common in Wales. My memory may not be reliable on that one, so take that with a big pinch of salt.

12-30-2017, 11:32 AM
The sample of my maternal granddad came out as I-L22* on Nevgen. BigY found a new branch just under L22. Your father might well be a completely new branch.
BigY on sale for another 24 hours...