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Aha
03-19-2018, 11:41 AM
I have tested my uncle Y-12 and curiously not a single match from Eastern Europe or Siberia (from which we suspected his grandfather came from, although we don't know who was that person, nobody knows)

Quite perplexing.
https://i.imgur.com/lywBMTA.jpg

And although Y-12 is a very low profile test, I needed to order it first to know what to test next. Right now can't decide between Y-37 and SNP pack. What would you suggest? SNP test suggested by FTDNA is backbone test. Maybe there is a more specific SNP pack I can bet and buy?

Thank you for your thoughts

p.s. reasons for not ordering BigY is budget.

03-19-2018, 11:59 AM
Normally the R1b Backbone test should be pretty good, I had the R1a backbone test, which was good.
other R1b people here might be able to recommended which specific test to take.
Good luck!

RobertCasey
03-19-2018, 02:39 PM
I would take a 67 marker upgrade first - then you have three sources for getting a better prediction of your haplogroup - avoiding the need for the gateway SNP pack. You can run your results through NevGen, my R-L21 SNP predictor and at 67 markers, you can look at your FTDNA matches to see what haplogroups that they belong to. The vast majority of time, these three methods eliminates the need for R1b or R1a SNP packs.

Also, here are some statistics about the resolution of tests: 12 - 80 to 90 % false hits, 25 - 40 to 60 % false hits, 37 - 20 to 30 % false hits, 67 - 10 to 20 % false hits. Even though 67 markers does not reduce the false hits that much - 67 markers vastly improves YSNP prediction and allows charting of connections.

ADW_1981
03-19-2018, 03:10 PM
I have tested my uncle Y-12 and curiously not a single match from Eastern Europe or Siberia (from which we suspected his grandfather came from, although we don't know who was that person, nobody knows)

Quite perplexing.
https://i.imgur.com/lywBMTA.jpg

And although Y-12 is a very low profile test, I needed to order it first to know what to test next. Right now can't decide between Y-37 and SNP pack. What would you suggest? SNP test suggested by FTDNA is backbone test. Maybe there is a more specific SNP pack I can bet and buy?

Thank you for your thoughts

p.s. reasons for not ordering BigY is budget.

Have you taken a look at ancient YDNA from Ukraine?

Joe B
03-19-2018, 03:53 PM
I agree with SG, the R1b Backbone test is a inexpensive way to find your uncle's basic R1b haplogroup. See if it makes sense for Eastern Europe. Would you mind sharing his 12 STR results? Is DYS393 12, 13 or something else?

Aha
03-19-2018, 05:07 PM
I agree with SG, the R1b Backbone test is a inexpensive way to find your uncle's basic R1b haplogroup. See if it makes sense for Eastern Europe. Would you mind sharing his 12 STR results? Is DYS393 12, 13 or something else?



DYS393
DYS390
DYS19
DYS391
DYS385
DYS426
DYS388
DYS439
DYS389I
DYS392
DYS389II


13
24
14
10
10-15
12
12
11
13
13
30

Aha
03-19-2018, 05:16 PM
Have you taken a look at ancient YDNA from Ukraine?

I have seen some papers describing their trace among eastern hunter gatherers.
But the particular ancestor is not from Ukraine. Nor he is so ancient.

lgmayka
03-19-2018, 06:48 PM
Normally the R1b Backbone test should be pretty good, I had the R1a backbone test, which was good.
Please everyone: The correct name for these is Pack, not Test:
R1b-M343&M269v2 SNP Pack ($99)
R1a-Backbone SNP Pack ($119)

FTDNA has a so-called backbone test, but it is either free (if you qualify) or worthless (if you don't). FTDNA's backbone test merely verifies that you belong to R1b-M269, R1a-M198, or whatever. FTDNA's naive telephone order-takers sometimes recommend it even though they should not.

Cofgene
03-19-2018, 10:23 PM
If you are on a tight budget you can get more value by doing additional tests at YSEQ.NET. As those results come in you should be able to use them to join the appropriate FTDNA project.

Aha
03-20-2018, 10:57 AM
If you are on a tight budget you can get more value by doing additional tests at YSEQ.NET. As those results come in you should be able to use them to join the appropriate FTDNA project.

I would rather use the sample I already sent... YSEQ is a good company, but...

Aha
03-20-2018, 11:02 AM
If anyone can tell, do these SNPs belong to the same main subbranch or different ones?

https://i.imgur.com/rubfDkK.jpg

I am considering skipping the M269 SNP pack and going for more focused ones, if all of the matches belong to the subbranches that are tested within a said more focused SNP pack

GoldenHind
03-20-2018, 10:11 PM
If I were you, I would do do the R-M343 etc. SNP pack next.

RobertCasey
03-21-2018, 02:21 PM
Random testing of SNP packs would mostly result in 100 % negative results and would be a waste of funds. You only have two choices: 1) upgrade to 67 markers where the matches would have some meaning; 2) Go YSNP testing only (more expensive in the long haul) and order the R1b pack (this brute force testing down the haplotree).

Matches at 12 markers are not very relevant since there is a 80 to 90 % false hit rate. The genetic genealogy community has attempted to get FTDNA to drop the 12 and 25 marker tests since these tests are not very accurate. They have removed them from their main advertising screens but they continue to ordered. I do not even look at 37 marker tests to conduct analysis as this level will be more accurate for matching - but hurts your chances substantially for YSNP prediction and charting with 37 markers is just guessing. Around 80 to 90 % of very recent haplogroups (1,200 to 2,500 years) are being predicted via YSNP prediction. After you get down to a more recent YSNP branch, the next step would be attempting to connect testers together via charting. Without 67 or 111 markers, you just can not chart (predict very recent branches), so you will have to randomly test down the haplotree for a long time which costs much more in the long run.

theImmortal
03-21-2018, 02:52 PM
Random testing of SNP packs would mostly result in 100 % negative results and would be a waste of funds. You only have two choices: 1) upgrade to 67 markers where the matches would have some meaning; 2) Go YSNP testing only (more expensive in the long haul) and order the R1b pack (this brute force testing down the haplotree).

Matches at 12 markers are not very relevant since there is a 80 to 90 % false hit rate. The genetic genealogy community has attempted to get FTDNA to drop the 12 and 25 marker tests since these tests are not very accurate. They have removed them from their main advertising screens but they continue to ordered. I do not even look at 37 marker tests to conduct analysis as this level will be more accurate for matching - but hurts your chances substantially for YSNP prediction and charting with 37 markers is just guessing. Around 80 to 90 % of very recent haplogroups (1,200 to 2,500 years) are being predicted via YSNP prediction. After you get down to a more recent YSNP branch, the next step would be attempting to connect testers together via charting. Without 67 or 111 markers, you just can not chart (predict very recent branches), so you will have to randomly test down the haplotree for a long time which costs much more in the long run.

I second RobertCasey's suggestion. The upgrade from 12 markers to 67 markers is $189, while the M343&M269v2 SNP is $99. But you have to apply some game theory analysis. There are essentially three outcomes with the SNP Pack:

1) You get assigned a specific haplogroup. This means that there has already been substantial SNP testing on your branch, which means you're likely to have 67-marker matches and matches who have already done SNP testing. OUTCOME: You probably would have received a more specific branch through 67-marker testing and would have found out who your nearest and most relevant matches are. LIKELIHOOD: Fair-High.

2) You get assigned a generic haplogroup. This means that there are no close matches at 67-markers, or at least none who've taken SNP tests (yet!). OUTCOME: You would have at least seen any matches at 25, 37, and 67 markers, and you're really no closer to knowing a specific haplogroup beyond M343. LIKELIHOOD: Fair.

3) You get assigned no haplogroup. This means your 12-marker results pointing to M343 was misleading. OUTCOME: You've completely wasted $99. LIKELIHOOD: Low-Fair.

In no scenario are you better off taking the SNP pack. That's not to say that these packs can't be useful. But I wouldn't recommend it with these 12-marker results. As to your question about the haplogroups you've posted, I can tell you that R-L2 and R-L21 are 4,500 years apart.

GoldenHind
03-21-2018, 07:14 PM
The problem with the above suggestions is that they are coming from the perspective of people of western European origin who undoubtedly have a fair number of matches at 67 markers. I gather your uncle's ancestry comes from Siberia. In my experience many R1b individuals of from those areas of eastern Europe (to say nothing of Siberia) where R1a is predominant have no matches at all above the 12 marker level. I would almost be willing to bet your uncle will have no matches at 67 markers, and if he has any at 37 or 25, they are likely to just be predicted generic R-M269, which won't be of much assistance. At least the M343 etc SNP pack will answer the question whether he is P312, U106 (and if so, which subclade of them) or X312,UI06. This will be useful and will at least get you pointed in the right direction.

lgmayka
03-21-2018, 11:17 PM
There are essentially three outcomes with the SNP Pack:

1) You get assigned a specific haplogroup. This means that there has already been substantial SNP testing on your branch, which means you're likely to have 67-marker matches and matches who have already done SNP testing. OUTCOME: You probably would have received a more specific branch through 67-marker testing and would have found out who your nearest and most relevant matches are. LIKELIHOOD: Fair-High.

2) You get assigned a generic haplogroup. This means that there are no close matches at 67-markers, or at least none who've taken SNP tests (yet!). OUTCOME: You would have at least seen any matches at 25, 37, and 67 markers, and you're really no closer to knowing a specific haplogroup beyond M343. LIKELIHOOD: Fair.

3) You get assigned no haplogroup. This means your 12-marker results pointing to M343 was misleading. OUTCOME: You've completely wasted $99. LIKELIHOOD: Low-Fair.

In no scenario are you better off taking the SNP pack.
Frankly, I don't understand what you're saying. As I understand it, Aha presented a fairly conventional 12-marker haplotype which FTDNA predicts to belong to R-M269, but which has only one exact match (from a very different geographical region). For several years now, the Y-DNA12 test actually measures 14 Y-STRs, and FTDNA's haplogroup prediction is based on all 14. FTDNA thus claims virtually 100% accuracy in its (very conservative) predictions--and if FTDNA is unable to make a confident prediction, a basic haplogroup ("backbone") test is run for free.

Given all that, it is nearly impossible for the R1b-M343&M269v2 SNP Pack to give an all-negative result in this case. If it did, the case would be so bizarre that we in this forum would probably crowdfund a Big Y.

I don't understand your distinction between "specific" and "generic" haplogroup either. This SNP pack places the customer in a specific branch of the R1b haplotree. Usually, that branch will have its own even-more-specific SNP pack, for $119. If the branch is very rare, there may be no further SNP pack--but again, extreme rarity may justify crowdfunding a Big Y.

In short: If a Central-Eastern European takes the Y-DNA12 test and receives an R-M269 prediction but with no exact matches in that geographical region, the R1b-M343&M269v2 SNP Pack is a very reasonable choice. (The Big Y is ideal but much more expensive.)

Feel free to join him also to the Polish(-Lithuanian Commonwealth) Project (https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/polish/activity-feed).

theImmortal
03-24-2018, 03:56 AM
Frankly, I don't understand what you're saying. As I understand it, Aha presented a fairly conventional 12-marker haplotype which FTDNA predicts to belong to R-M269, but which has only one exact match (from a very different geographical region). For several years now, the Y-DNA12 test actually measures 14 Y-STRs, and FTDNA's haplogroup prediction is based on all 14. FTDNA thus claims virtually 100% accuracy in its (very conservative) predictions--and if FTDNA is unable to make a confident prediction, a basic haplogroup ("backbone") test is run for free.

Given all that, it is nearly impossible for the R1b-M343&M269v2 SNP Pack to give an all-negative result in this case. If it did, the case would be so bizarre that we in this forum would probably crowdfund a Big Y.

I don't understand your distinction between "specific" and "generic" haplogroup either. This SNP pack places the customer in a specific branch of the R1b haplotree. Usually, that branch will have its own even-more-specific SNP pack, for $119. If the branch is very rare, there may be no further SNP pack--but again, extreme rarity may justify crowdfunding a Big Y.

In short: If a Central-Eastern European takes the Y-DNA12 test and receives an R-M269 prediction but with no exact matches in that geographical region, the R1b-M343&M269v2 SNP Pack is a very reasonable choice. (The Big Y is ideal but much more expensive.)

Feel free to join him also to the Polish(-Lithuanian Commonwealth) Project (https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/polish/activity-feed).

Respectfully disagree about this being a fairly conventional 12-marker result. He has 10-15 at DYS385, which means he will be a 2-genetic distance from anyone with 11-14 (i.e., the great majority of R1b), and wonít match, even though that mutation can happen in a generation.

If I had to guess, Iíd say most of his 12-marker matches are just random kits throughout the R1b tree that also have 10-15 at that position and otherwise have a similar profile. But I donít think itís a forgone conclusion that he has no useful matches at 25, 37, and 67 markers (I realize you werenít the one to say this).

Iím not saying the SNP test isnít likely to help. My point is really more about the order of operations. Even if he spends $100 on an SNP pack and gets a haplogroup assignment, heís still left with just a 12-market result for matching purposes. (Aside: for a lot of people Big Y is not ideal, because they just end up with no matches, because so few have taken the test).

Odds are heís gonna want to upgrade his STR markers eventually. Might as well do that now, so thereís a chance he can confidently buy a more specific $39 single SNP test to verify whatever his 25-67-marker results tell him. Worst case scenario, he has to buy the SNP pack after upgrading to 67-markers. At least heíll have that test done. I think itís much more likely that he will waste some money on an SNP pack.

GoldenHind
03-24-2018, 11:33 PM
While it may not be a foregone conclusion that he will have no matches at 25, 37 or 67 markers, I think it is extremely unlikely that if he does have any, they will have a terminal SNP beyond M269. R1b is rare in eastern Europe, and gets rarer as one proceeds eastwards. You can't get too much farther east than Siberia. There just aren't that many eastern European R1b's in the FTDNA database, which is dominated by people with ancestry from Ireland and Britain.

We can all agree that 67 markers should be ordered at some time. The question is what to do first. I would expect that there is at least a 95% that 67 markers won't tell him anything more than he knows now, unless he has an STR signature which strongly indicates a particular R1b subclade. At least the M343 etc backbone test will give him some valuable information and narrow down where he goes from there. It certainly won't be a waste of money.

Aha
03-25-2018, 06:31 PM
From the experience of testing my own haplo, I have got two hundred Y12 Matches all from the same region. Y37 gave me one 4-step match.

Looking at uncle's matches, he has got 3 Irish persons as full match and another hundred of Irish/Scottish people as 1-step at Y12. My great-uncle (R1a) got even less matches. So I am really skeptical about finding any meaningful matches, but it doesn't mean I am not going to try.

He might have gotten his R1b from Volga Germans. If I subtract suffixes from his surname, there is such a surname in Germany. But that is just a remote possibility. Other variant - it is a Siberian R1b. The possible origin of the said unknown ancestor is Altai Krai (the densest German population in russia is also there).
But at the same time, only one of those Y12 1-step matches is German.

What gnaws though is that after getting first SNP pack, I will also probably order another one. But I believe I will at least know if it is Siberian or some other R1b

Aha
06-30-2018, 12:15 PM
If I were you, I would do do the R-M343 etc. SNP pack next.


Random testing of SNP packs would mostly result in 100 % negative results and would be a waste of funds. You only have two choices: 1) upgrade to 67 markers where the matches would have some meaning; 2) Go YSNP testing only (more expensive in the long haul) and order the R1b pack (this brute force testing down the haplotree).

Matches at 12 markers are not very relevant since there is a 80 to 90 % false hit rate. The genetic genealogy community has attempted to get FTDNA to drop the 12 and 25 marker tests since these tests are not very accurate. They have removed them from their main advertising screens but they continue to ordered. I do not even look at 37 marker tests to conduct analysis as this level will be more accurate for matching - but hurts your chances substantially for YSNP prediction and charting with 37 markers is just guessing. Around 80 to 90 % of very recent haplogroups (1,200 to 2,500 years) are being predicted via YSNP prediction. After you get down to a more recent YSNP branch, the next step would be attempting to connect testers together via charting. Without 67 or 111 markers, you just can not chart (predict very recent branches), so you will have to randomly test down the haplotree for a long time which costs much more in the long run.


I second RobertCasey's suggestion. The upgrade from 12 markers to 67 markers is $189, while the M343&M269v2 SNP is $99. But you have to apply some game theory analysis. There are essentially three outcomes with the SNP Pack:

1) You get assigned a specific haplogroup. This means that there has already been substantial SNP testing on your branch, which means you're likely to have 67-marker matches and matches who have already done SNP testing. OUTCOME: You probably would have received a more specific branch through 67-marker testing and would have found out who your nearest and most relevant matches are. LIKELIHOOD: Fair-High.

2) You get assigned a generic haplogroup. This means that there are no close matches at 67-markers, or at least none who've taken SNP tests (yet!). OUTCOME: You would have at least seen any matches at 25, 37, and 67 markers, and you're really no closer to knowing a specific haplogroup beyond M343. LIKELIHOOD: Fair.

3) You get assigned no haplogroup. This means your 12-marker results pointing to M343 was misleading. OUTCOME: You've completely wasted $99. LIKELIHOOD: Low-Fair.

In no scenario are you better off taking the SNP pack. That's not to say that these packs can't be useful. But I wouldn't recommend it with these 12-marker results. As to your question about the haplogroups you've posted, I can tell you that R-L2 and R-L21 are 4,500 years apart.


Frankly, I don't understand what you're saying. As I understand it, Aha presented a fairly conventional 12-marker haplotype which FTDNA predicts to belong to R-M269, but which has only one exact match (from a very different geographical region). For several years now, the Y-DNA12 test actually measures 14 Y-STRs, and FTDNA's haplogroup prediction is based on all 14. FTDNA thus claims virtually 100% accuracy in its (very conservative) predictions--and if FTDNA is unable to make a confident prediction, a basic haplogroup ("backbone") test is run for free.

Given all that, it is nearly impossible for the R1b-M343&M269v2 SNP Pack to give an all-negative result in this case. If it did, the case would be so bizarre that we in this forum would probably crowdfund a Big Y.

I don't understand your distinction between "specific" and "generic" haplogroup either. This SNP pack places the customer in a specific branch of the R1b haplotree. Usually, that branch will have its own even-more-specific SNP pack, for $119. If the branch is very rare, there may be no further SNP pack--but again, extreme rarity may justify crowdfunding a Big Y.

In short: If a Central-Eastern European takes the Y-DNA12 test and receives an R-M269 prediction but with no exact matches in that geographical region, the R1b-M343&M269v2 SNP Pack is a very reasonable choice. (The Big Y is ideal but much more expensive.)

Feel free to join him also to the Polish(-Lithuanian Commonwealth) Project (https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/polish/activity-feed).

Hello guys!

The SNP pack came back with the result:

R-Z251

Where did it originate and with what culture? How could it have gotten into Siberia. Is it worth to take the Z251 SNP pack. Are there any distribution maps for Z251. What ethnicities or subethnicites this clade is most popular among.

GoldenHind
06-30-2018, 05:09 PM
Hello guys!

The SNP pack came back with the result:

R-Z251

Where did it originate and with what culture? How could it have gotten into Siberia. Is it worth to take the Z251 SNP pack. Are there any distribution maps for Z251. What ethnicities or subethnicites this clade is most popular among.

Z251 forms a very large subclade or subdivision of L21, which is one of the primary branches of R1b-P312, the most common haplogroup in western Europe. A quick check shows that Z251 is found in much of Europe, principally Britain, but there is a smaller further branch of Z251 found in Belarus and Ukraine. My guess is that he is likely to be part of that particular branch.

I suggest you join him to the R-P312 and R-L21 Projects.

Aha
08-28-2018, 05:06 AM
Z251 forms a very large subclade or subdivision of L21, which is one of the primary branches of R1b-P312, the most common haplogroup in western Europe. A quick check shows that Z251 is found in much of Europe, principally Britain, but there is a smaller further branch of Z251 found in Belarus and Ukraine. My guess is that he is likely to be part of that particular branch.

I suggest you join him to the R-P312 and R-L21 Projects.

He seems to be outside of that eastern European group. Neither he is in the levite group.
Z251 SNP pack results finally arrived. He is positive for Z17662 branch while all downstream of that SNP are tested negative. All Z17622 from the project are either Irish or Scottish, like his Y12 matches.

Mystery

https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-Z17662/

Webb
08-28-2018, 06:30 PM
He seems to be outside of that eastern European group. Neither he is in the levite group.
Z251 SNP pack results finally arrived. He is positive for Z17662 branch while all downstream of that SNP are tested negative. All Z17622 from the project are either Irish or Scottish, like his Y12 matches.

Mystery

https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-Z17662/

Here is similar information on Alex's BigTree:

http://www.ytree.net/DisplayTree.php?blockID=479&star=false

If you click the block it gives you a median age estimate of 1258 B.C.

Purickis_Lithuania
09-20-2018, 03:36 AM
I'm L-617 which Is the same as finding a three-legged man in Lithuania. Have never had more than a 12 marker Y match.