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Ais
07-27-2018, 08:23 PM
I got the results of my cousins 67 marker test, and considering the predicted haplogroup is R-M269, I was surprised he doesn't have more matches. For example, he only has 7 12 marker matches, 4 of which are GD=1.

The ones I'm particularly interested in are his 67 marker matches, of which he has 3, all with a GD=7. I'm wondering how close they are likely to be. None of them share a surname with each other - one is McMullen, one is Farley, and one is Cohen - which makes me wonder if these matches are pre-surnames. I'm not sure how distant a GD of 7 would be.

I'm also curious if there's any way to narrow down the subclade from the STR values? One of the 67 marker matches has his terminal SNP, but considering the genetic distance, I don't know that my cousin would have the same subclade.

Tz85
07-27-2018, 08:26 PM
I got the results of my cousins 67 marker test, and considering the predicted haplogroup is R-M269, I was surprised he doesn't have more matches. For example, he only has 7 12 marker matches, 4 of which are GD=1.

The ones I'm particularly interested in are his 67 marker matches, of which he has 3, all with a GD=7. I'm wondering how close they are likely to be. None of them share a surname with each other - one is McMullen, one is Farley, and one is Cohen - which makes me wonder if these matches are pre-surnames. I'm not sure how distant a GD of 7 would be.

I'm also curious if there's any way to narrow down the subclade from the STR values? One of the 67 marker matches has his terminal SNP, but considering the genetic distance, I don't know that my cousin would have the same subclade.

None of these surnames existed when this haplogroups originated. I really don't understand why people try an attempt to attach surnames to haplogroups.

Ais
07-27-2018, 08:54 PM
None of these surnames existed when this haplogroups originated. I really don't understand why people try an attempt to attach surnames to haplogroups.

Not really sure what you're replying to, I didn't ask about the surname of R-M269.

rms2
07-27-2018, 08:58 PM
Your best bet is to go with the Big Y-500 test. Sorry to tell you that, as it's going to cost you more money.

Ais
07-27-2018, 09:03 PM
Your best bet is to go with the Big Y-500 test. Sorry to tell you that, as it's going to cost you more money.

I do plan to upgrade at some point, but I won't be able to afford it for a while. It just seems strange to have so few matches in such a common haplogroup, and the distances seem quite high.

rms2
07-27-2018, 09:07 PM
I do plan to upgrade at some point, but I won't be able to afford it for a while. It just seems strange to have so few matches in such a common haplogroup, and the distances seem quite high.

That happens with some men. You probably won't learn a lot more until you upgrade.

Ais
07-27-2018, 09:32 PM
That happens with some men. You probably won't learn a lot more until you upgrade.

When I do get the upgrade, do you know if a new kit has to be sent out or if they can use the sample already submitted?

I did plug the STRs into nevgen and yhrd.org. On the latter, there were no matches (although it came up Western European and Admixed), but nevgen gave a 65% chance of being downstream of L21>DF13, 21.6% chance of being downstream of DF27, and 13.2% chance of being an unsupported subclade.

rms2
07-27-2018, 09:41 PM
When I do get the upgrade, do you know if a new kit has to be sent out or if they can use the sample already submitted?

I did plug the STRs into nevgen and yhrd.org. On the latter, there were no matches (although it came up Western European and Admixed), but nevgen gave a 65% chance of being downstream of L21>DF13, 21.6% chance of being downstream of DF27, and 13.2% chance of being an unsupported subclade.

FTDNA will probably not need a new sample, unless the one you submitted is already several years old and has been used for a number of tests.

Sounds like he's L21, but there's no telling without a SNP test.

You could do the R1b SNP pack. It's cheaper, but you're an enthusiast, so you probably won't sleep well at night until you've done the Big Y-500.

I know the feeling.

Ais
07-27-2018, 09:56 PM
FTDNA will probably not need a new sample, unless the one you submitted is already several years old and has been used for a number of tests.

Sounds like he's L21, but there's no telling without a SNP test.

You could do the R1b SNP pack. It's cheaper, but you're an enthusiast, so you probably won't sleep well at night until you've done the Big Y-500.

I know the feeling.

Haha, that's true. I'm considering getting the SNP pack for now, but I know I'm going to end up getting the Big Y-500 somewhere down the line regardless!

rms2
07-27-2018, 10:09 PM
Yeah, you won't feel right unless you have a dna test pending someplace.

I have a second cousin with a SNP test pending, so I'm in fair shape for now.

Ais
07-27-2018, 10:24 PM
Yeah, you won't feel right unless you have a dna test pending someplace.

I have a second cousin with a SNP test pending, some I'm in fair shape for now.

I just bought two autosomal tests - one for my aunt and one for my grandfather, as well as waiting for my fiance's results! I can't rest unless I'm researching something or getting results.

I just had a thought actually, one of my 60/67 matches is R-BY2848, which is downstream of L21>DF13, so I imagine that my cousin is almost certainly L21. I suppose he just has an odd clade, because he doesn't seem to fit that easily into a classification.

Ais
07-27-2018, 10:39 PM
Yeah, you won't feel right unless you have a dna test pending someplace.

I have a second cousin with a SNP test pending, so I'm in fair shape for now.

I meant to ask, do you know anything about Robert Casey's R-L21 SNP Predictor? I put my cousin's STR values in, and it gave a 0% probability of testing positive for all of the SNPs.

rms2
07-27-2018, 10:42 PM
No, he'd have to speak on that subject.

Ais
07-27-2018, 11:02 PM
No, he'd have to speak on that subject.

I've been playing around with it, and the tool seems to be broken. It's putting in false numbers, which will be why it's coming up with strange results!

rms2
07-27-2018, 11:06 PM
I think it's really tough to predict a terminal SNP based on str's because R1b-M269 and especially P312 had a sudden expansion in the Early Bronze Age.

Oh, and 67 markers aren't near enough.

Ais
07-27-2018, 11:15 PM
I think it's really tough to predict a terminal SNP based on str's because R1b-M269 and especially P312 had a sudden expansion in the Early Bronze Age.

Oh, and 67 markers aren't near enough.

Yeah, you won't get a terminal SNP from 67 markers, but I thought you might be able to confirm L21 from them. I imagine it likely is, but I wanted to check the tool to see what it said.

rms2
07-27-2018, 11:17 PM
Yeah, you won't get a terminal SNP from 67 markers, but I thought you might be able to confirm L21 from them. I imagine it likely is, but I wanted to check the tool to see what it said.

Yeah, if his ancestry is British or Irish, L21 is likely, but there's enough doubt to make things uncomfortable and to help boost FTDNA's bottom line.

Ais
07-27-2018, 11:39 PM
Yeah, if his ancestry is British or Irish, L21 is likely, but there's enough doubt to make things uncomfortable and to help boost FTDNA's bottom line.

The interesting thing is, his paternal line is completely unknown. His grandfather, my great great grandfather, was illegitimate, and was born in a very ethnically diverse area. There was no way to know where that line came from. However, a fair few of the matches he does have seem to have paternal ancestry from Ireland (although like I said, they're all very distant relations).

Tz85
07-27-2018, 11:50 PM
Not really sure what you're replying to, I didn't ask about the surname of R-M269.

Ah, whoops.

GoldenHind
07-28-2018, 06:03 AM
I got the results of my cousins 67 marker test, and considering the predicted haplogroup is R-M269, I was surprised he doesn't have more matches. For example, he only has 7 12 marker matches, 4 of which are GD=1.

The ones I'm particularly interested in are his 67 marker matches, of which he has 3, all with a GD=7. I'm wondering how close they are likely to be. None of them share a surname with each other - one is McMullen, one is Farley, and one is Cohen - which makes me wonder if these matches are pre-surnames. I'm not sure how distant a GD of 7 would be.

I'm also curious if there's any way to narrow down the subclade from the STR values? One of the 67 marker matches has his terminal SNP, but considering the genetic distance, I don't know that my cousin would have the same subclade.

I am aware of a number of R-M269 individuals who have no matches above 25 markers, so it isn't all that unusual. It depends on many markers you have that are unusual, or off-modal, within the R-M269 haplogroup.

Since STR markers mutate at a random rather than than at a set rate, and some markers mutate much more frequently than others, one can only speak of broad probabilities when trying to calculate generational distance based solely on genetic distance. This is indicated by the TIP function on FTDNA's matches. However as a general rule, I would expect the connection between people with a GD of 7 at 67 markers to likely pre-date the adoption of surnames.

Also it has been thoroughly established (this was first discovered years ago by Dr. Ken Nordtvedt) that at least some M269 subclades have a very strong STR signature, and can reliably be predicted from off-modal marker values. A few examples would be L238 and S27900, though there are many more. My own subclade (FGC864) has six off-modal markers, and those who have them are virtually guaranteed to be within that subclade.

Ysearch was extremely helpful in looking for these STR signatures, but sadly it is now defunct.

RobertCasey
07-28-2018, 06:11 AM
There are three ways to narrow down via YSNP prediction:

NevGen is a YSNP prediction tool:

http://www.nevgen.org/

My L21 SNP predictor is another YSNP prediction tool:

http://www.rcasey.net/DNA/R-L21_SNP_Predictor_Intro.html

I third method which is pretty adhoc - look at your matches and see what their terminal YSNPs that have been tested. This will some
times narrow your focus to younger haplogroups.

These three/methods tools should be used first. From their there are two approaches:

1) Order best fit SNP packs (based on prediction or terminal YSNP matches).

2) Order the Big Y500 upgrade which is always better but much more expensive.

If you are not getting many matches these days, you probably fall into to three categories:

1) Your line is just not very prolific and do not have many living male descendants to test.

2) Your line is just not been well tested as early adopters did not see immediate results and gave up. The more that people match, the more interest that is generated.

3) Your ancestors originate from geographic areas that are not well tested. The further south in Europe and then the further east you go, the less that people are testing in these geographies. As databases grow organically, things will improve. So your leading edge testing is more of an investment in the future.

My branch, R-L226 (fourth branch discovered under R-L21) was not discovered until 2010 and had only 44 members at this time. Fast forward to eight years later and we now have 533 project members and over 1,000 testers that are confirmed/predicted to be L226. Since L226 is 1500 years old, genetic distance has to be increased by 50 % to match - so 67 marker matches become 10.5 mutations. I was the first NGS test under L226 with YElite1.0 at $1325. Now I have nine branches on the FTDNA haplotree from the 45 private YSNPs that I originally had. As testing prices fall and the overall standard of living continues to rise across the world, things will continue to improve.

RobertCasey
07-28-2018, 06:24 AM
Yeah, you won't get a terminal SNP from 67 markers, but I thought you might be able to confirm L21 from them. I imagine it likely is, but I wanted to check the tool to see what it said.
Around 80 to 90 % of L21 is predictable at 67 markers at 95 to 99 % accuracy (the vast majority is at 99 %) and 95 % is where some some convergence present. However, YSNP prediction is limited to YSNPs in the 1,500 to 2,500 YBP range. L21 is way too old to predict directly - but it could be predicted indirectly by testing all the branches in the relevant range. Even though my L21 SNP predictor is quite dated, it still predicts around 50 % of L21 testers to more recent branches that have been analyzed. Here is my YouTube video that shows you how to do your own YSNP prediction:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AD1HHb0Cwfs (http://https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AD1HHb0Cwfs)

Ais
07-28-2018, 04:07 PM
I am aware of a number of R-M269 individuals who have no matches above 25 markers, so it isn't all that unusual. It depends on many markers you have that are unusual, or off-modal, within the R-M269 haplogroup.

Since STR markers mutate at a random rather than than at a set rate, and some markers mutate much more frequently than others, one can only speak of broad probabilities when trying to calculate generational distance based solely on genetic distance. This is indicated by the TIP function on FTDNA's matches. However as a general rule, I would expect the connection between people with a GD of 7 at 67 markers to likely pre-date the adoption of surnames.

Also it has been thoroughly established (this was first discovered years ago by Dr. Ken Nordtvedt) that at least some M269 subclades have a very strong STR signature, and can reliably be predicted from off-modal marker values. A few examples would be L238 and S27900, though there are many more. My own subclade (FGC864) has six off-modal markers, and those who have them are virtually guaranteed to be within that subclade.

Ysearch was extremely helpful in looking for these STR signatures, but sadly it is now defunct.

Yeah, I've found the TiP function to be pretty unreliable - for example, one of my matches is German and has traced his paternal line back to 1600, all central and eastern Germany. We only match on 23/25 markers and not at all on the 37 marker (which is where he tested up to), and FTDNA says there's a 50% chance of us being related in the last 8 generations.


There are three ways to narrow down via YSNP prediction:

NevGen is a YSNP prediction tool:

http://www.nevgen.org/

My L21 SNP predictor is another YSNP prediction tool:

http://www.rcasey.net/DNA/R-L21_SNP_Predictor_Intro.html

I third method which is pretty adhoc - look at your matches and see what their terminal YSNPs that have been tested. This will some
times narrow your focus to younger haplogroups.

These three/methods tools should be used first. From their there are two approaches:

1) Order best fit SNP packs (based on prediction or terminal YSNP matches).

2) Order the Big Y500 upgrade which is always better but much more expensive.

If you are not getting many matches these days, you probably fall into to three categories:

1) Your line is just not very prolific and do not have many living male descendants to test.

2) Your line is just not been well tested as early adopters did not see immediate results and gave up. The more that people match, the more interest that is generated.

3) Your ancestors originate from geographic areas that are not well tested. The further south in Europe and then the further east you go, the less that people are testing in these geographies. As databases grow organically, things will improve. So your leading edge testing is more of an investment in the future.

My branch, R-L226 (fourth branch discovered under R-L21) was not discovered until 2010 and had only 44 members at this time. Fast forward to eight years later and we now have 533 project members and over 1,000 testers that are confirmed/predicted to be L226. Since L226 is 1500 years old, genetic distance has to be increased by 50 % to match - so 67 marker matches become 10.5 mutations. I was the first NGS test under L226 with YElite1.0 at $1325. Now I have nine branches on the FTDNA haplotree from the 45 private YSNPs that I originally had. As testing prices fall and the overall standard of living continues to rise across the world, things will continue to improve.

I checked on NevGen, it gave me a 65% chance of being L21, but when I put the numbers into your L21 predictor, it gave me a 0% chance of testing positive for any of the SNPs. I do have the terminal SNP of one of my 60/67 matches though, and he is L21, which makes me think my cousin's Y DNA is just very off-modal.

Purickis_Lithuania
09-20-2018, 03:25 PM
I've been on FTDNA for about 5 years and have not had a single match over 12 markers. I am at Y-111 and I don't see the need for further testing. At this point, I am looking at geni trees which have provided a lot of information on connections in Eastern Europe. Whether or not they are blood relations remains to be seen.

Verity
10-14-2018, 04:24 PM
My brother recently took the basic Y DNA test and was predicted to be R-M269. He hasn't got a single match at 37 markers, not even at 4 steps!

I entered his str results at nevgen. Does DYS390 at a distance of 23 mean anything?

ADW_1981
10-14-2018, 04:55 PM
My brother recently took the basic Y DNA test and was predicted to be R-M269. He hasn't got a single match at 37 markers, not even at 4 steps!

I entered his str results at nevgen. Does DYS390 at a distance of 23 mean anything?

I'd save your resources and go directly to a BigY test with FTDNA. It has the largest database and a large community of helpful people. Having no close STR matches isn't all that uncommon. Finding a close relative in the database is kind of hit or miss anyways, and you should have 100+ STR markers tested if this is your goal. The fact you don't have anyone close at 37 indicates that you probably don't have close relatives in the database but don't worry, you are not alone. I don't have any at 25 markers, and the ones at 12 are meaningless and from completely different branches under M269.

Jatt1
10-14-2018, 05:45 PM
I'd save your resources and go directly to a BigY test with FTDNA. It has the largest database and a large community of helpful people. Having no close STR matches isn't all that uncommon. Finding a close relative in the database is kind of hit or miss anyways, and you should have 100+ STR markers tested if this is your goal. The fact you don't have anyone close at 37 indicates that you probably don't have close relatives in the database but don't worry, you are not alone. I don't have any at 25 markers, and the ones at 12 are meaningless and from completely different branches under M269.

For the price of a Big Y he can have Dante Labs WGS and take the data to YFull for analysis. https://www.facebook.com/DanteLabs

https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?12075-Dante-Labs-(WGS)

GoldenHind
10-14-2018, 06:59 PM
I've been on FTDNA for about 5 years and have not had a single match over 12 markers. I am at Y-111 and I don't see the need for further testing. At this point, I am looking at geni trees which have provided a lot of information on connections in Eastern Europe. Whether or not they are blood relations remains to be seen.

That is probably because the number of men of Lithuanian origin in the FTDNA database is infinitesimal compared to those of Irish and British origin.

If you are predicted by FTDNA to be R-M269 and don't want to do the Big Y at the present, I would highly recommend the R1b M343 backbone test as an intermediate step.

ADW_1981
10-14-2018, 07:40 PM
For the price of a Big Y he can have Dante Labs WGS and take the data to YFull for analysis. https://www.facebook.com/DanteLabs

https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?12075-Dante-Labs-(WGS)

Does Dante Labs WGS have the same size of database to compare against? Can the sample be transferred to FTDNA? I'm not making a sales pitch, just talking value, and size does matter.

MitchellSince1893
10-14-2018, 10:32 PM
That is probably because the number of men of Lithuanian origin in the FTDNA database is infinitesimal compared to those of Irish and British origin.

If you are predicted by FTDNA to be R-M269 and don't want to do the Big Y at the present, I would highly recommend the R1b M343 backbone test as an intermediate step.

Even if you have a British origin for your Y-dna line, there's no guarantee you will have any close matches in the British & Irish biased FTDNA database. My situation is not as bad, but my closest y-dna match and I have a MRCA lived 700 to 1000 years ago. After 6 years and still no 37 marker or 67 marker matches and only one 111 marker match at a GD of 10.

My lack of more recent matches has me thinking about all kinds of possibilities... e.g.. my closest match and I share a pre 1066 Norman Conquest ancestor. His line came to England and mine stayed in France (dna testing in France is minimal), only to come to England at a much later date? I dunno.

Any way didn't mean to hi-jack the thread, but I feel your pain when it comes to few y-dna matches.

Purickis_Lithuania
01-05-2019, 10:27 PM
Even if you have a British origin for your Y-dna line, there's no guarantee you will have any close matches in the British & Irish biased FTDNA database. My situation is not as bad, but my closest y-dna match and I have a MRCA lived 700 to 1000 years ago. After 6 years and still no 37 marker or 67 marker matches and only one 111 marker match at a GD of 10.

My lack of more recent matches has me thinking about all kinds of possibilities... e.g.. my closest match and I share a pre 1066 Norman Conquest ancestor. His line came to England and mine stayed in France (dna testing in France is minimal), only to come to England at a much later date? I dunno.

Any way didn't mean to hi-jack the thread, but I feel your pain when it comes to few y-dna matches.

Still no paternal Y matches to speak of. But I've had some interesting autosomal matches - Siegfried Von Babenberg VII - directly descended from the Austrian Babenberg dynasty living in France. Also, on gedmatch, it appears I have two very distant common ancestors with Prince Max Liechtenstein who lives in London, I think. Finally, I have a common ancestor (possibly 2) with a living descendant of the Rurikids also living in France.

Webb
01-07-2019, 03:22 PM
Even if you have a British origin for your Y-dna line, there's no guarantee you will have any close matches in the British & Irish biased FTDNA database. My situation is not as bad, but my closest y-dna match and I have a MRCA lived 700 to 1000 years ago. After 6 years and still no 37 marker or 67 marker matches and only one 111 marker match at a GD of 10.

My lack of more recent matches has me thinking about all kinds of possibilities... e.g.. my closest match and I share a pre 1066 Norman Conquest ancestor. His line came to England and mine stayed in France (dna testing in France is minimal), only to come to England at a much later date? I dunno.

Any way didn't mean to hi-jack the thread, but I feel your pain when it comes to few y-dna matches.

I don't remember your story to be exact, but do you suspect a NPE in your line? Hence MitchellSince1893.