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MitchellSince1893
09-09-2018, 10:17 PM
If you had to put money on it, where do you think P312 originated?

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/51/a3/df/51a3df9caba8f9e048c968f087cfe3e5.png

rms2
09-09-2018, 10:40 PM
I voted H for Hell, yes, because I think Budzhak was the mysterious pre-Beaker culture, and that's where Budzhak came from.

I could be wrong, of course, but guessing and voting in polls are fun things to do.

Budzhak was a subdivision of Yamnaya, and I live in a subdivision called South Oaks, so yeah.

jdean
09-09-2018, 10:52 PM
And I've gone for G, because it's in the middle which is me most of the time : )

razyn
09-09-2018, 11:16 PM
I voted D. But that's partly because my brother's initials are DGH. Really I think it could be more or less in, or near, where those three circles intersect. But I'd be happier with a circle the same size, centered in that little tripod or whatever it's called.*

* Probably, a Venn diagram, q.v. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venn_diagram My brother David G Hulan knows about this stuff; I don't really. But I have at least heard of it.

Webb
09-09-2018, 11:23 PM
I’m being conservative and voted C. But I have extreme South East C in mind. The intersection of C, D, and G.

jdean
09-09-2018, 11:32 PM
I voted D. But that's partly because my brother's initials are DGH. Really I think it could be more or less in, or near, where those three circles intersect. But I'd be happier with a circle the same size, centered in that little tripod or whatever it's called.

Marvellous : )

MitchellSince1893
09-09-2018, 11:44 PM
I voted H for Hell, yes, because I think Budzhak was the mysterious pre-Beaker culture, and that's where Budzhak came from.

I could be wrong, of course, but guessing and voting in polls are fun things to do.

Budzhak was a subdivision of Yamnaya, and I live in a subdivision called South Oaks, so yeah.

I have previously said area H as well for the same reasons you mentioned. Thus I will vote for H, but it wouldn't surprise me if it turned up in C,D,E,G, or I...the area where the "Goldilocks" zone runs through.

https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?13871-Oldest-Steppe-Bell-Beakers-Saxony-Anhalt-Germany&p=372289&viewfull=1#post372289

newm1988
09-10-2018, 02:35 AM
G is my best guess. It might have started to really flourish in C. But if it happened in the course of a migration, the first P312 man probably lived somewhere East of where it is now most common.

MikeWhalen
09-10-2018, 11:47 AM
I am a total hack when it comes to really understanding all of this stuff

but guessing blindly is about my speed so I will cheerfully vote for G

with a back up of C or H

mostly cause the smart kids at the front of the class seemed to talk about those area's the most before this poll was taken

Mike

ps-for those following the other thread about reputation, I gave the OP a rep point for this post cause its a fun little thing that took some time for him to do and I appreciate it...just saying and giving an example since so many folks seemed to be unaware of it at all

emmental
09-10-2018, 01:29 PM
This is a trick question! See that little space between C, F and G? It's not in any of the circles. That's got to be the spot!

MitchellSince1893
09-10-2018, 11:47 PM
This is a trick question! See that little space between C, F and G? It's not in any
of the circles. That's got to be the spot!

That’s why I have the last choice in the poll ;)

Obtw I asked admin to fix a couple of typos in the op e.g “no of the above “ to “none of the above”. But they haven’t got to it yet

rms2
09-11-2018, 12:39 AM
Here's a little blurb from Reich's book for all of you who put the birthplace of P312 west of the steppe. It's from pages 239-240 of Who We Are and How We Got Here:



This Yamnaya expansion also cannot have been entirely friendly, as is clear from the fact that the proportion of Y chromosomes of steppe origin in both western Europe26 and India27 today is much larger than the proportion of steppe ancestry in the rest of the genome. This preponderance of male ancestry coming from the steppe implies that male descendants of the Yamnaya with political or social power were more successful at competing for local mates than men from the local groups. The most striking example I know of is from Iberia in far southwestern Europe, where Yamnaya-derived ancestry arrived at the onset of the Bronze Age between forty-five hundred and four thousand years ago. Daniel Bradley's laboratory and my laboratory independently produced ancient DNA from individuals of this period.28 We found that approximately 30 percent of the Iberian population was replaced along with the arrival of steppe ancestry. However, the replacement of Y chromosomes was much more dramatic: in our data around 90 percent of males who carry Yamnaya ancestry have a Y-chromosome type of steppe origin that was absent in Iberia prior to that time. It is clear there were extraordinary hierarchies and imbalances in power at work in the expansions from the steppe.

So, which y-dna haplogroup do you think he was referring to as "a Y-chromosome type of steppe origin"?

Think Reich may know something the rest of us don't?

Webb
09-11-2018, 01:12 AM
Here's a little blurb from Reich's book for all of you who put the birthplace of P312 west of the steppe. It's from pages 239-240 of Who We Are and How We Got Here:



So, which y-dna haplogroup do you think he was referring to as "a Y-chromosome type of steppe origin"?

Think Reich may know something the rest of us don't?

I went conservative with my vote. At the very least M269 is Steppe. At the most P312 is Steppe. And I hope Reich can deliver the goods, otherwise there are a lot of us who will be eating cheese.

razyn
09-11-2018, 02:05 AM
I'll surmise that Reich was hinting about L11. And along that line, I think the differentiation between P312 and U106 seems more likely to have happened east of the Carpathians than west of them. If that's right, they both existed before large percentages of both migrated westward on different paths. It may not be right; at some point in space/time, each is just one guy. The progeny of each may have had separate bottlenecks, growth spurts, waves of advance, refluxes, shortages of women, plagues, whatever. But in broad terms, it seems more like the way trees grow.

I don't entirely agree that "At the most P312 is Steppe." It wouldn't much surprise me to learn, some day, that subclades one or two levels below P312 were also "steppe," in the sense of not being born nearly as far west as the current consensus models tend to show. Which levels, it's hard to say. Maybe impossible to say. They might be mutations nobody yet has detected, or is looking for, or admits to the pantheon of events that have caused genetic branching on the Y chromosome. We already have competing trees that don't agree on how to treat indels, palindromes, repeat regions, SNPs imbedded in STRs, UEPs that mutate more than once at the same locus, and so on. If some of these events also happened east of the Carpathians it may be donkeys' years before the academic community agrees to look there. It will be noted here first, but then that thread will need to be closed.

rms2
09-13-2018, 02:23 PM
One can see from the Kurgan Bell Beaker results that by the middle of the third millennium BC P312 was already split up into its major branches. To me that indicates that while the branching and expansion probably took place from a central European base, the birthplace of P312 itself was farther east, i.e., on the steppe. Just my opinion.

rms2
09-14-2018, 10:20 PM
Looks like the voting in this poll is pretty much over.

Hopefully we'll see some relevant ancient y-dna results soon.

Radboud
09-15-2018, 10:52 AM
Looks like the voting in this poll is pretty much over.

Hopefully we'll see some relevant ancient y-dna results soon.

I did not vote yet. :P

I am going to vote for either H or G. Alternatively, it could have been originated in the eastern section of C.

rms2
09-15-2018, 11:50 AM
I did not vote yet. :P

I am going to vote for either H or G. Alternatively, it could have been originated in the eastern section of C.

I voted for H.

I don't think C is right because we have major branches of P312 there already c. 2500 BC. Since that was a time of movement and expansion, I don't think P312 was hanging around in one place and putting down roots, so to speak. IMHO it came in from the steppe and those major branches first appeared somewhere between H and eastern C.

MitchellSince1893
09-17-2018, 12:18 AM
G is definitely the safest bet...includes much of the Danube, the Carpathian basin, Moravia, Tisza River, north slope of Carpathians, and close to many of the popular guesses...SE Poland, Czech Rep, Oder River, Bavaria, Ukraine... So far 88.88% voted for C,G, or H.

razyn
09-17-2018, 04:27 AM
So far 88.88% voted for C,G, or H.
They might be right, especially if it was kind of northeastern G, or northwestern H. Which is btw in D, also. Southeast central D. (This sounds a little bit like some press release from the Institute of Texan Cultures...)

Think about the transportation "grid" 5,000 years ago. Crossroads, intersections, mountain passes, confluence of major streams. I don't think geographers are taken seriously by many other academic disciplines, but there is stuff they actually know about. Especially cultural geographers. At some point Linguistics, Archaeology and Genetics may still need to reach out, a little.

Joe B
09-18-2018, 12:22 AM
Looks like the voting in this poll is pretty much over.

Hopefully we'll see some relevant ancient y-dna results soon. I wasn't going to vote until I saw that rms2 prematurely declared the poll over.
Will go out on a limb and say G. Because G is for geography.

razyn
09-19-2018, 05:32 PM
I'll surmise that Reich was hinting about L11...

It wouldn't much surprise me to learn, some day, that subclades one or two levels below P312 were also "steppe"

...They might be mutations nobody yet has detected, or is looking for, or admits to [the ISOGG tree of] the pantheon of events that have caused genetic branching on the Y chromosome.

In that regard, see this: https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?9758-How-to-submit-Y-SNP-to-ISOGG-Ybrowse&p=492021&viewfull=1#post492021

MitchellSince1893
10-05-2018, 12:55 AM
P312 found in a Scythian sample near Ukrainian/Moldovan border, 40 miles from the Black Sea. circa ~600 BC


scy009* Starosillya Scythian 770 - 415 BCE in

https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?15533-Ancient-genomes-of-Srubnaya-Cimmerians-Scythians-and-Sarmatians(Science-2018)&p=501538&viewfull=1#post501538

2000 years too late but in the right spot (as far as how I voted in this poll)

jdean
10-05-2018, 08:37 AM
P312 found in a Scythian sample near Ukrainian/Moldovan border, 40 miles from the Black Sea. circa ~600 BC


https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?15533-Ancient-genomes-of-Srubnaya-Cimmerians-Scythians-and-Sarmatians(Science-2018)&p=501538&viewfull=1#post501538

2000 years too late but in the right spot (as far as how I voted in this poll)

Looks to be one of the most western shifted of all the Scythian samples and must be a long way down the tree from his P312 ancestor, still interesting though and it would be good to know what downstream SNPs can be found.

R.Rocca
10-05-2018, 11:12 AM
P312 found in a Scythian sample near Ukrainian/Moldovan border, 40 miles from the Black Sea. circa ~600 BC

https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?15533-Ancient-genomes-of-Srubnaya-Cimmerians-Scythians-and-Sarmatians(Science-2018)&p=501538&viewfull=1#post501538

2000 years too late but in the right spot (as far as how I voted in this poll)

Like most of the Eastern European Bell Beakers, Scythian sample scy009 also belongs to U152+ L2+ and clusters with modern day Poles. Like you said, 2,000 years too late, but on the steppe and buried under a kurgan nonetheless ;)

rms2
10-05-2018, 11:23 AM
I wasn't going to vote until I saw that rms2 prematurely declared the poll over.
Will go out on a limb and say G. Because G is for geography.

I didn't "declare" the poll over. I saw that it hadn't moved in awhile and commented that it looked like the voting had stopped.

In fact, that's what I said:



Looks like the voting in this poll is pretty much over.

"Looks like" is hardly some kind of declaration. It was an observation. It looked like the voting was over.

Besides, the purpose of my comment was to bump the thread back up. Guess it worked.

Agamemnon
10-05-2018, 11:49 AM
H or G (probably where the circles intersect).

rms2
10-05-2018, 11:55 AM
H or G (probably where the circles intersect).

I voted H. Sure would like to know.

Ethereal
10-05-2018, 11:56 AM
B/C - I don't believe in a Steppe origin of L51 though.

rms2
10-05-2018, 01:16 PM
In his recent book, Who We Are and How We Got Here, David Reich refers to the R1b-P312 in Iberia as a "y chromosome of steppe origin". So, you think he's wrong?

I think he has knowledge of a lot of unpublished ancient samples and knows more than we do.

MitchellSince1893
10-05-2018, 07:28 PM
P312 found in a Scythian sample near Ukrainian/Moldovan border, 40 miles from the Black Sea. circa ~600 BC


https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?15533-Ancient-genomes-of-Srubnaya-Cimmerians-Scythians-and-Sarmatians(Science-2018)&p=501538&viewfull=1#post501538

2000 years too late but in the right spot (as far as how I voted in this poll)

Apparently there are two Starosillya locations in the Ukraine. The correct one is here https://www.google.com/maps/place/Starosillya,+Cherkasy+Oblast,+Ukraine,+19510/@49.4322113,27.104459,6z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x40d15858fd9e78c7:0x50755291692e4 9d8!8m2!3d49.401024!4d31.5967341

i.e. Not the Starosillya near the Moldovan/Ukrainian border, but the one near the Dnieper River, southeast of Kiev...but still in Circle "H"

R.Rocca
10-06-2018, 02:56 AM
I see the selections (A, B, C etc.), but not their descriptions. Either way, it seems to me like a whole bunch of brothers/cousins along the Rhine were P312* around 2700/2600 BC. From there, the subclades we know of today started to appear and spread in every direction around 2500 BC. From the looks of the Upper Danube Eastern Bell Beaker samples, the only P312 subclade that seemed to reverse the trek of its L51 and L11 forefathers was L2. This is likely why we've only seen L2 and Z2103 together on the Middle Danube and now in Iron Age Scythian samples from the Ukraine steppe. The Proto-Naryrev L11(xP312,U106) sample may represent the earlier east to west Yamnaya migration.

MitchellSince1893
10-06-2018, 03:50 AM
I see the selections (A, B, C etc.), but not their descriptions. Either way, it seems to me like a whole bunch of brothers/cousins along the Rhine were P312* around 2700/2600 BC. From there, the subclades we know of today started to appear and spread in every direction around 2500 BC. From the looks of the Upper Danube Eastern Bell Beaker samples, the only P312 subclade that seemed to reverse the trek of its L51 and L11 forefathers was L2. This is likely why we've only seen L2 and Z2103 together on the Middle Danube and now in Iron Age Scythian samples from the Ukraine steppe. The Proto-Naryrev L11(xP312,U106) sample may represent the earlier east to west Yamnaya migration.

Look at post #1 which has the map. Reposted here

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/51/a3/df/51a3df9caba8f9e048c968f087cfe3e5.png

From your description above I guess you are a "B" or "C" guy

R.Rocca
10-06-2018, 11:42 AM
From your description above I guess you are a "B" or "C" guy

Bottom-right part of "C", very close to the overlap between "C" and "G". Voted for "C" though.

MitchellSince1893
10-06-2018, 01:25 PM
After 30 votes our geographic midpoint is here. The part of the Ukraine closest to Slovakia and Hungary in the Carpathians.

http://www.geomidpoint.com/?ml=48.44392&mn=23.19191&l=47.1433|50.675107|49.19506|49.224437|49.815273|5 1.339696|53.887384|47.185456|47.007721|48.708048|4 0.640063&n=28.721448|17.921298|16.606837|17.662763|6.129583 |12.373075|25.289438|23.057332|30.763524|44.513304 |22.944419&a=Moldova|46-020+Opole,+Poland|Brno,+Czechia|Zlin,+Czechia|Luxe mbourg|Leipzig,+Germany|Lida,+Belarus|Zal%C4%83u,+ Romania|Serbka,+Odessa+Oblast,+Ukraine,+67510|Volg ograd,+Volgograd+Oblast,+Russia|Thessaloniki,+Gree ce&d=2|1|1|1|1|6|1|12|8|1|1&cl=50.10125&cn=24.21182&z=5&x=1&c=0&p=1&r=0&w=1

http://www.geomidpoint.com/?ml=48.44392&mn=23.19191&l=47.1433|50.675107|49.19506|49.224437|49.815273|5 1.339696|53.887384|47.185456|47.007721|48.708048|4 0.640063&n=28.721448|17.921298|16.606837|17.662763|6.129583 |12.373075|25.289438|23.057332|30.763524|44.513304 |22.944419&a=Moldova|46-020+Opole,+Poland|Brno,+Czechia|Zlin,+Czechia|Luxe mbourg|Leipzig,+Germany|Lida,+Belarus|Zal%C4%83u,+ Romania|Serbka,+Odessa+Oblast,+Ukraine,+67510|Volg ograd,+Volgograd+Oblast,+Russia|Thessaloniki,+Gree ce&d=2|1|1|1|1|6|1|12|8|1|1&cl=50.10125&cn=24.21182&z=5&x=1&c=0&p=1&r=0&w=1

razyn
10-06-2018, 02:52 PM
Venn diagram of DGH was pretty close, ha ha.

MitchellSince1893
10-06-2018, 03:01 PM
Venn diagram of DGH was pretty close, ha ha.

If some one (like you, Rocca and a few others) posted a specific location, I would use that. Otherwise I would use the center of the circle in question and give it a weight based on number of votes remaining.

500 mile radius around current midpoint of voting.
https://www.mapdevelopers.com/draw-circle-tool.php?circles=%5B%5B804670%2C48.4466691%2C23.17 69711%2C%22%23F5F502%22%2C%22%23FFFF05%22%2C0.4%5D %5D

R.Rocca
10-08-2018, 01:03 AM
I get folks voting for "G", but I don't see the logic in "H". L51 and L11 seem very likely for "H", but I don't see any data points for P312 originating in that area.

MitchellSince1893
10-08-2018, 05:49 AM
I get folks voting for "G", but I don't see the logic in "H". L51 and L11 seem very likely for "H", but I don't see any data points for P312 originating in that area.

My reasoning is as follows:

1. Iain McDonald's best guess date for P312 is 3079 BC (yfull gets 2800 BC but I think their dates tend to be too young)

2. We know RISE563 is U152 and dates (2572-2512 BC). Odds are this isn't the first man to have the U152 SNP and the original U152 is a few generations before RISE563. Iain McDonald has a date for R-DF27 starting at 2973 BC and U152 at 2685 BC. For argument sake let's say the original U152 started out at 2685 BC which seems reasonable based on RISE563's date.

3. We know there are 3-4 mutations between P312 and U152 (Z40481, ZZ11, Z38841 and possibly Z1904/CTS12684/PF6548), so it's reasonable to assume that P312 could very well be dated to around 3000 BC.

4. IIRC, from ancient dna results we know the Steppe dna doesn't start showing up in Central and Western Europe until around the 2800 to 2600 BC range.

So, if P312 began around 3000 BC, and steppe dna doesn't appear in ancient samples in Western & Central Europe until after this date then it's seems logical to assume he was from further east. His descendants may have had explosive growth in Central Europe (e.g. U152>L2), but I think he started out further east.

As to P312's brother clades: I know Iain McDonald has stated he thinks U106 originated between Prague and the Baltic, and DF100, L238, and A8039/S1194 have geographic mid points near the Oder River/Baltic Coast (if you remove the Armenian samples), but, again I think this is near where they had their growth spurts and not where they were born.

Maybe L151/L11’s immediate descendants started out North of the Black Sea and migrated to in/near present day Poland/Czech Rep/Germany.

I'm sure there is a flaw in my logic somewhere, because you have been looking at this info much longer and harder than I have.

rms2
10-08-2018, 06:02 PM
I agree with you, and we see results well downstream of P312 by the middle of the third millennium in central and western Europe. The third millennium was highly mobile for Indo-European people, especially males. By the middle of the third millennium, P312's subclades were found far from P312's own birthplace.

razyn
10-08-2018, 06:39 PM
I think it's interesting to see the extent to which participants in this discussion now marginalize the Mediterranean in the whole process. That represents a considerable shift since I started following these forums, around the beginning of 2011. I think the shift has been caused by aDNA data, showing us stuff that the written word and the ceramic record did not preserve.

R.Rocca
10-09-2018, 12:05 AM
I think it's interesting to see the extent to which participants in this discussion now marginalize the Mediterranean in the whole process. That represents a considerable shift since I started following these forums, around the beginning of 2011. I think the shift has been caused by aDNA data, showing us stuff that the written word and the ceramic record did not preserve.

Well yeah, direct evidence (ancient DNA) always trumps circumstantial evidence (variance, frequency).

razyn
10-10-2018, 06:00 PM
500 mile radius around current midpoint of voting.
https://www.mapdevelopers.com/draw-circle-tool.php?circles=%5B%5B804670%2C48.4466691%2C23.17 69711%2C%22%23F5F502%22%2C%22%23FFFF05%22%2C0.4%5D %5D

This makes better sense visually since you edited that post and included a new map link.

And I have rashly suggested Pinsk. So, there! https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?827-Where-did-DF27-originate-and-when-and-how-did-it-expand&p=505611&viewfull=1#post505611

jdean
10-10-2018, 06:24 PM
This makes better sense visually since you edited that post and included a new map link.

And I have rashly suggested Pinsk. So, there! https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?827-Where-did-DF27-originate-and-when-and-how-did-it-expand&p=505611&viewfull=1#post505611

OOI how much of an obstacle would those rivers have been back in the early bronze age ?

MitchellSince1893
10-11-2018, 01:40 AM
A quote from Richard Rocca's opening post in this old thread
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?13871-Oldest-Steppe-Bell-Beakers-Saxony-Anhalt-Germany&p=371120&viewfull=1#post371120

It is obvious that cultural assimilation by indigenous people of an ideological ‘Package’ was important; but so too was the arrival of individual people from the steppes and Pontic area. Their significance derives from their social rank, and the archetype is the single burial from Bleckendorf, Lkr. Aschersleben-Staßfurt (Saxony-Anhalt) in Germany (Behrens 1952) (Fig. 49). We do not know if this man journeyed farther to the west than anyone else, yet his equipment and burial rite was typical for the Yamnaya culture. An early tanged knife, a copper awl, bone hammerhead pin, and a decorated beaker accompanied the skeleton in a deep pit. The radiocarbon determination places it around the 27th century BC (14C: 4080±20 bp [KIA-162]; 1-Sigma: 2850–2500 BC: J. Müller 1999). The nearest parallels are found in Moldavia at the Dnestr River and in the Ukraine.


Yes, this sample had a Corded Ware beaker, but if we consider pottery making as a female craft, his wife could very well have been a Corded Ware woman. His male prestige item is a copper dagger in the Yamnaya/Bell Beaker style instead of a Corded Ware axe. The Yamnaya/Bell Beaker classification puts him squarely in the L23 conversation. This is not very far-fetched when you consider that twenty miles away and, one or two generations later we have the ninth oldest date… none other than the Kromsdorf R-M343 sample! The Kromsdorf cemetery also had an R-M269 sample that was not radiocarbon dated. Since individual SNPs were called, not much more is known about their genetics. Saxony-Anhalt samples continue to dominate until we get to our eighteenth oldest sample RISE563. He is our oldest R-P312 (and R-U152) and also the first sample found south of the Danube.

While this does not mean that Saxony-Anhalt is the “ground zero” expansion point for L11, it would help explain a lot of what we know about L11 so far, namely:

1. Steppe Bell Beaker’s non-steppe ancestry needs a population with Western Hunter-Gatherer (WHG) matching that of Globular Amphora Culture (GAC) or the Funnelbeaker Culture.
2. Bell Beaker samples from Rhenish Bell Beaker (Netherlands and Britain) have more steppe ancestry than other Steppe Bell Beaker samples.
3. The great diversity of Y-DNA groups in Csepel and Vucedol, both in the form of L23 and non-R1b. If L11 took this route, some may have stayed behind while the rest kept moving. Perhaps an early escape from the Great Hungarian Plain can be traced through tumuli as far west as Slovakia and the Austrian Burgenland. Tracing Lockenringe is another option.
4. The founder effects (L2 in the Bell Beaker East Group and L21 in Britain) almost calls for a centralized P312 or L11-only group with no other haplogroups, namely Z2103 nor R1a and certainly not non-R haplogroups.
5. A place where U106 was not too far to the east, at least not far enough so that it could not appear (without R1a) meaningful numbers just as the Bell Beaker Culture was starting to fade.
6. The lack of R1b in Corded Ware samples. These early dates make it so that R1b is not needed in Corded Ware.

So we have a very early Yamnaya/Bell Beaker man in Bleckendorf, Saxony-Anhalt, we have a very early R-M343+ man in Kromsdorf, Saxony-Anhalt and we have two later L11+ Bell Beaker samples from Quedlinburg, Saxony-Anhalt (I0805 and I0806). So, that raises the question... was Saxony-Anhalt the main expansion area for L11 and/or P312?

Based on his burial items, this sample from Bleckendorf seems to arrived straight from the Moldova/Ukraine area and was dated to 2850-2500 BC. The correct dating of P312 is critical in possibly determine his origin. If he was born prior to 2850 BC, I'm thinking he was from the Steppe (Circle H). If after this date it very well be Central Europe (Circle C or G)

It wouldn't surprise me if P312 was born north of the Black Sea and died in Central Europe.

razyn
10-11-2018, 02:20 AM
It wouldn't surprise me if P312 was born north of the Black Sea and died in Central Europe.

It would surprise me. Because he has to have quite a few male descendant lines, allegedly having a distinguishing mutation on a roughly 140-year timetable, to get the Big Tree shaped the way it is, in time for it to have the branches we know it has, as far east in Europe as they have been found (dead).

Not that I really believe in dating by SNP-counting, especially for that sort of accuracy in a small family group. But I also don't think the Bleckendorf guy was part of a tiny clan that would soon blossom. He was just some rich guy whose grave was sumptuously adorned. By some of his many surviving relatives.

MitchellSince1893
10-11-2018, 03:09 PM
If some one (like you, Rocca and a few others) posted a specific location, I would use that. Otherwise I would use the center of the circle in question and give it a weight based on number of votes remaining.

500 mile radius around current midpoint of voting.
https://www.mapdevelopers.com/draw-circle-tool.php?circles=%5B%5B804670%2C48.4466691%2C23.17 69711%2C%22%23F5F502%22%2C%22%23FFFF05%22%2C0.4%5D %5D

Apparently this post has been misinterpreted. I was trying to say "If some one (like you, Rocca and a few others) has posted a specific location... You and Richard did provide more specific locations in this thread. 3 circles intersect....In C near G....

Sorry for the confusion. No slight was intended.

MitchellSince1893
10-11-2018, 04:00 PM
Just to throw the "Goldilocks zone back in the mix (not too south not too north; not too Z2103, not too R1a; not too corded ware, not too Balkan Farmer) from a previous thread https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?13871-Oldest-Steppe-Bell-Beakers-Saxony-Anhalt-Germany&p=372289&viewfull=1#post372289


Where the 500 mile radius of the center of point of voting overlays the "Goldilocks Zone" The map projection type distorts the circle into a radius

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/85/15/5c/85155c269af1668b04510c0bed178474.png

rms2
10-11-2018, 11:15 PM
For me the Black Sea littoral is where the pre-Beaker burial rites most foreshadowed Beaker burial rites: bodies crouched on their sides, burials in stone and timber lined cists, use of anthropomorphic stelae, sexual dimorphism in burial rites, etc.

That's part of the reason why I voted H. I still think Budzhak is a good candidate for the pre-Beaker culture.

razyn
01-06-2019, 05:18 PM
Rich Rocca has posted modified graphics from a new Bell Beaker Archaeology paper by O. Lemercier, that are reminiscent of the last efforts by Mitchell on this thread. So I'm pasting in a link, by way of refreshing this discussion in case anybody wants to do so. https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?16234-Bell-Beaker-Archaeology-and-Ancient-DNA&p=534585#post534585

If the dates suggested by Lemercier are generally valid, I think we might need to raise our age estimates for P312 and its major subclades. And an older mutation, in this YDNA lineage, is arguably a more eastern mutation. Anyway, the maps are interesting.

JoeyP37
01-06-2019, 05:34 PM
I voted for G. South C is also possible. I find D and E most unlikely; that is R1a country. R1b took the Danube route from the Steppes. Somewhere in modern Hungary, Austria, Bavaria, Slavonia (the region in Croatia; I did not misspell Slovakia or Slovenia)

MitchellSince1893
08-26-2021, 02:01 AM
If you had to put money on it, where do you think P312 originated?

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/51/a3/df/51a3df9caba8f9e048c968f087cfe3e5.png

Looks like "C" was the correct answer.