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View Full Version : Implications of Michal's SNP counting for R1b models



alan
11-27-2013, 11:06 PM
On the other hand this is premature - please delete.

alan
11-28-2013, 11:35 AM
I was going to a full blown discussion on Michal's redating of R1b but I would make just one point. Michal dates L51 about the same age as L23xL51. I may be misunderstanding but someone else also came up with a similar observation working from a different angle.

Wing Genealogist
11-28-2013, 01:50 PM
The recent paper by Chris Tyler Smith, which stated the explosive growth of R1b in Europe happened within a handful of generations, supports Michal (and other's) statement about L51 being about the same age as L23xL51. It also supports other subclades as quickly arising.

The U106 Project is working on dating the various subclades and have been running into difficulty in that the raw data is actually dating some of the subclades as slightly older than their parents! The confidence intervals are very wide, being much wider than the explosion of haplogroups.

alan
11-28-2013, 07:05 PM
Michals dating does appear to confirm two phases with a hiatus. The first phase seems to include L23xL51, L51 and M269* clades. Then the L11* explosion. That is not too much of a surprise as I think the possibility of a two phase expansion had been seen before. His dating suggests that the actual clades are a signifcant amount younger than the SNPs - especially M269 and L23. So, it seems to suggest a period of not much doing with M269 and L23 before the take off. As I said before though although Michal indicates the first group are earlier than thought, they are still not as old as the early farming waves west. The inclusion of L51* in the early phase of expansion and being at least as old as L23xL51 is interesting and the implications of that need some chewing over. It could be that very light movement led to a number of expansion centres between the Balkans and the Alps.


The recent paper by Chris Tyler Smith, which stated the explosive growth of R1b in Europe happened within a handful of generations, supports Michal (and other's) statement about L51 being about the same age as L23xL51. It also supports other subclades as quickly arising.

The U106 Project is working on dating the various subclades and have been running into difficulty in that the raw data is actually dating some of the subclades as slightly older than their parents! The confidence intervals are very wide, being much wider than the explosion of haplogroups.

alan
11-28-2013, 07:11 PM
Michals dating does appear to confirm two phases with a hiatus. The first phase seems to include L23xL51, L51 and M269* clades c. 5500BC. Then the L11* explosion. That is not too much of a surprise as I think the possibility of a two phase expansion had been seen before. His dating suggests that the actual clades are a signifcant amount younger than the SNPs - especially M269 and L23. So, it seems to suggest a period of not much doing with M269 and L23 before the take off. As I said before though although Michal indicates the first group are earlier than thought, they are still not as old as the early farming waves west. The inclusion of L51* in the early phase of expansion and being at least as old as L23xL51 is interesting and the implications of that need some chewing over. It could be that very light movement led to a number of expansion centres between the Balkans and the Alps

TigerMW
11-29-2013, 02:18 AM
The recent paper by Chris Tyler Smith, which stated the explosive growth of R1b in Europe happened within a handful of generations, supports Michal (and other's) statement about L51 being about the same age as L23xL51. It also supports other subclades as quickly arising....

Sorry, I'm just catching up. I've done some googling but haven't found the recent Smith paper or Michal ?'s estimates. Does anyone have links to these?

Joe B
11-29-2013, 02:47 AM
Sorry, I'm just catching up. I've done some googling but haven't found the recent Smith paper or Michal ?'s estimates. Does anyone have links to these?
Modeling the contrasting Neolithic male lineage expansions in Europe and Africa
Michael J Sikora, Vincenza Colonna, Yali Xue and Chris Tyler-Smith
Investigative Genetics 21 November 2013
abstract (http://www.investigativegenetics.com/content/4/1/25/abstract)
.pdf full study (http://www.investigativegenetics.com/content/pdf/2041-2223-4-25.pdf)

alan
11-29-2013, 03:13 AM
Its based on Michal who posts here. This is the thread page where he discusses this

http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?1507-Some-provisional-calculations-for-haplogroup-R1a-based-on-the-first-FGC-result/page4