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View Full Version : Demography of descendants of L151: Confirmed link with corded ware?



Tolan
11-18-2019, 05:27 AM
I wanted to make a map that retraces the possible way of the 5 main haplogroup under L151, and a graph with their demographic evolution.
This, from the countries and the number of variants that can be found on the Big Y tree of FTDNA.

I took the principle that the closer a country is to the Pontic Steppes or caucasus, the older the settlement, the further away the country is, the more recent it is.

No doubt this is not 100% true, but I wanted to know what it was like using this method of calculation.

Link to the map:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=fr&mid=1eU04cPBN2nMfq7NoXKJHHtd4f_oyte8Y&ll=51.779166583815766%2C16.334742499999948&z=5

For the nearest landmark of the Steppes, I took the average position of 5% of the "BIG Y" samples closest to the Steppes and the Caucasus.
For the second landmark: 10%
For the third: 25%
For the fourth: 50%
For the fifth: 100% (all)

As the results may be biased by over-representation of the British Isles, I have only considered the "UK" display samples.
Which corresponds to a number of individual of a country between Germany and France (Lignée B map).
However, I left the map with all the British Isles included so you could see the difference (Lignée A map).

For the evolution of the number of offspring, I took into account all variants, including those that are not clearly identified.
I took as scale: 1 variant = 83 years old.

Results:

The map seems to confirm the theory that is fashionable at the moment, namely that part of the descendants of L151, would have been first Corded war then Bell beaker.
3 haplogroups seem to branch off north and Baltic after the Steppes: U106, L21 and DF27, while U152 seems to take another direction: all the way west!
DF27 seems to have taken a way a little further south than L21 and U106.
L21 and U106 seem to have taken the same way, but perhaps not at the same time.
Maybe L21 was the first, followed by U106.
S1194, would have had a late evolution, which could explain its relatively small number today. His story seems to be common to U106 on the end of the period.

Note that the birthplace of haplogroups is hypothetical. It is possible that the first landmark does not exist in reality ...


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The population evolution curve seems to show that U152 and DF27 have a similar growth curve with strong growth starting at 2400BC.
Both are from ZZ11, so their beginning was probably a common story.
U106 has a continuous and moderate growth.
Z290 (L21) has a later but relatively large population growth.
S1194 although quite old, does not know a demographic explosion like the 4 other branches. Maybe it took place after 2000 BC.

Finally, for the age of birth, if reference of L151 is 3000BC, then U106 and S1194 are the oldest (2917BC, 1 variant under L151), DF27 (2668BC, 4 variants under L151) and U152 (2668, 4 variants under L151).
L21 is then younger (2419 BC, 6 variants under L151).

Any thoughts and comments are welcome

Dewsloth
11-19-2019, 12:33 AM
No love for DF19 :(

Tolan
11-19-2019, 04:42 AM
I added DF19 on the map.
The line seems logical, but a small number of individuals makes the calculation a little too uncertain!

MitchellSince1893
11-19-2019, 05:34 AM
For point 2, there definitely seems to be an affinity to the South Baltic Coast for 5 out of 6 haplogroups i.e. Lithuania and Northern Poland...U152 being the odd man out.

I’m wondering if your point one is being pulled south by your Caucasus requirement.

What if you just used the easternmost samples instead?

dsm
11-19-2019, 06:35 AM
Am as interested as all the others in this type of analysis.

We S1194 (and A8053). People are scarce and we have the strangest TMRCA years. My branch under S1194 is CTS4528 with a claimed TMRCA of 4800 years. It is very hard to believe there aren't closer S1194 relatives.

I can only conclude that S1194 became isolated on a Sth Baltic island (or Scandinavian Island) for 1000s of years or our ancestors got all but wiped out way back perhaps more than once.

I certainly don't see the same TMRCA problems under P312 or U106 branches.

What will be really interesting is if A8053 then S1194 are older as mentioned.

Tolan
11-19-2019, 06:48 AM
For point 2, there definitely seems to be an affinity to the South Baltic Coast for 5 out of 6 haplogroups i.e. Lithuania and Northern Poland...U152 being the odd man out.

I’m wondering if your point one is being pulled south by your Caucasus requirement.

What if you just used the easternmost samples instead?


I think that changes nothing.
Point 2 is point 1 + new points in zone 2

U152 is in fact also present in northeastern Europe, but the difference is that it is also very present in south-East of Europe, and even in Turkey. Unlike other haplogroups.
That's why the average is in Central Europe.

palamede
11-19-2019, 11:52 AM
The "southern way" of U152 in these statistics could be biased by the Celtic migrations of 5th to 3th centuries BC . These migrations started from areas with strong U152 frequence in the 5th century BC (Austria, Bohemia, South and Central Germany, Switzerland). The first migrations went to North Italia (also coming from France), Hungary and Slovakia. The great migration of the first half of 3e century BC gave implantations in Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, SouthWest Ukrainia west of Dniepr river, and region of Ankara (old Ancyre in old Galatia) in Turkey. They went away eastwards as mercenaries of Seleucid Empire till Central Asia, Ptolémees kingdoms, Pergame, Pont and other Anatolian kingdoms and Bosphorian kingdom (Crimea, Kertch Staitch). And also as horsemen of the Roman Army which recruited them by thousands (important role at the two Philippes battles (Graecan Thrace) between Marc Antoine and Octave againt Brutus and Cassius in 42C , also in Parthian wars).

palamede
11-19-2019, 12:23 PM
For the start of U106 in Ukrainia , it could be biaised by germanic migrations of the 1st to 3rd century AD of German peoples (Goths, Gepids, Herules, ...) from Baltic coast to Ukrainia.

dsm
11-19-2019, 07:17 PM
I have noticed that the lines don't seem to sit in the proper location over the maps. But, this is *very interesting* work.

Is there a way we can 'anchor' or pinpoint the ends (actual modern location at each end of the lines) so we can get a clearer picture.

i.e. where do the S1194 & U106 line start and stop in real locations on todays maps.

Also, is it right to assume that several lines at the top, began on or close to the Sth Baltic then spread west and east (south East) - in *both* directions.

Thanks

DSM

Tolan
11-19-2019, 09:09 PM
The "southern way" of U152 in these statistics could be biased by the Celtic migrations of 5th to 3th centuries BC . These migrations started from areas with strong U152 frequence in the 5th century BC (Austria, Bohemia, South and Central Germany, Switzerland). The first migrations went to North Italia (also coming from France), Hungary and Slovakia. The great migration of the first half of 3e century BC gave implantations in Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, SouthWest Ukrainia west of Dniepr river, and region of Ankara (old Ancyre in old Galatia) in Turkey. They went away eastwards as mercenaries of Seleucid Empire till Central Asia, Ptolémees kingdoms, Pergame, Pont and other Anatolian kingdoms and Bosphorian kingdom (Crimea, Kertch Staitch). And also as horsemen of the Roman Army which recruited them by thousands (important role at the two Philippes battles (Graecan Thrace) between Marc Antoine and Octave againt Brutus and Cassius in 42C , also in Parthian wars).


Yes, but that means that Central Europe was essentially U152 and not so much DF27, L21 or U106 because they were further north ...
Moreover, in absolute numbers, U152 is today less present in Sweden and Finland than U106, L21 or DF27.
It seems obvious to me that no group was 100% one or 100% the other.
The interest of this exercise was mainly to see what were the different ways that the descendants of L151 were able to take from the Steppes to Western Europe.
A few months ago, I did not particularly believe that they could have taken a way to the North and the Baltic.
I find that very interesting.

Tolan
11-19-2019, 09:17 PM
I have noticed that the lines don't seem to sit in the proper location over the maps. But, this is *very interesting* work.

Is there a way we can 'anchor' or pinpoint the ends (actual modern location at each end of the lines) so we can get a clearer picture.

i.e. where do the S1194 & U106 line start and stop in real locations on todays maps.

Also, is it right to assume that several lines at the top, began on or close to the Sth Baltic then spread west and east (south East) - in *both* directions.

Thanks

DSM

Sorry, I do not understand your message.
My English is not very good!

Maybe you are talking about different layers?
"Lignée A" is a version that takes into account all of the British Isles.
But this distorts the results because of the large number of people of British or Irish origin who are tested.
This gives the impression that all haplogroups are going to the UK.

Lignée B, only takes part of them.
It must be closer to reality ...

So obviously, the lines are not the same

Dewsloth
11-19-2019, 09:26 PM
Yes, but that means that Central Europe was essentially U152 and not so much DF27, L21 or U106 because they were further north ...
Moreover, in absolute numbers, U152 is today less present in Sweden and Finland than U106, L21 or DF27.
It seems obvious to me that no group was 100% one or 100% the other.
The interest of this exercise was mainly to see what were the different ways that the descendants of L151 were able to take from the Steppes to Western Europe.
A few months ago, I did not particularly believe that they could have taken a way to the North and the Baltic.
I find that very interesting.

There are two people considered DF88* (an immediate "Beaker-era" subclade of DF19) whose MDKA's are from Poland and Norway.
It doesn't prove anything, but it's interesting given their proximity to the Baltic.

Also interesting that there has so far been one person found who breaks up the "DF19 block" as he is Z4161+ but DF19-. His MDKA is Czech.

dsm
11-19-2019, 11:12 PM
Basically I am saying - the various lines appear to be too far to the left on the actual map (i.e. some lines end up in the ocean but obviously should be on the land).

Another explanation, the map itself seems to show in a different location to where it should show.

Mais, merci beacoup mon ami ��

Again this is very interesting data.

dsm
11-20-2019, 12:04 AM
Below is a grab from the map link showing ends going into the sea.

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