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ArmandoR1b
11-23-2019, 02:49 PM
Every once in a while, in this thread, I plan to post the total number of people that are positive for DF27 in the FTDNA public haplotree at https://www.familytreedna.com/public/y-dna-haplotree/R;name=R-DF27. If you click on the menu bar on the right then select Country Report it provides a total count, at the bottom of the column of Downstream Participants, of everyone, up to a fairly recent date, that has tested positive for DF27, or a subclade of DF27, through individual SNP testing, SNP packs, or Big Y testing. The public haplotree includes people that do not belong to any project to this a very good and simple way to get an accurate count. I will be updating the count so we can see how much this count increases over time.

The count as of this morning is 6,791. I wonder how long it will be until the count gets up to 10,000.

razyn
11-23-2019, 04:07 PM
An important stat at the end of the chart is the 3,108 (out of 6,791) who didn't self-report a place of origin, and aren't included in the "Distribution" percentage, broken down by countries.

Also, the DF27 project has 3,591 members this morning. It grew at a rather steady rate (slope shown on the peculiar graph of Project Joins, with ten-month intervals rather than a full year, to keep everything decimal) for the first five years (July 2013 through June 2018), but has grown at almost twice that pace for about a year and a half.

ArmandoR1b
11-23-2019, 04:28 PM
An important stat at the end of the chart is the 3,108 (out of 6,791) who didn't self-report a place of origin, and aren't included in the "Distribution" percentage, broken down by countries.

Not really important since that is not what this thread is about. I only used total count to not include a discussion about percentages. A better thread for percentage of DF27 is the map thread at https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?11364-FTDNA-R1b-Project-Maps or a new thread just for DF27 about "Distribution" percentage.


Also, the DF27 project has 3,591 members this morning. It grew at a rather steady rate (slope shown on the peculiar graph of Project Joins, with ten-month intervals rather than a full year, to keep everything decimal) for the first five years (July 2013 through June 2018), but has grown at almost twice that pace for about a year and a half.

So that is a confirmation that you are missing 3,200 people that have tested positive for DF27 yet do not want to join the project or do not know about the project.

razyn
11-23-2019, 06:18 PM
Well, really I was just trying to help you estimate how long it will be until the count, of whatever especially interests you today, gets up to 10,000.

And btw that 3,200 includes some hundreds of guys (or guys' kits, managed by females) added to the haplogroup project by someone else; the kit contact person then decided it didn't fill any need he or she felt, and withdrew.

Personally I suspect that the recent steeper slope of the monthly increase of DF27 tested kits -- in or out of the said project -- is a function of increased attention to DF27 in the literature, whether scientific or popular. But my suspicions aren't based on statistics, I just see the notice when a test result (in the project) posts.

ArmandoR1b
12-23-2019, 04:29 AM
In almost one month it went up 124 samples from 6,791 to 6,915. It might take about two years to get up to 10,000. At least I am in the game for the long haul. It looks like things will really be interesting in about 10-20 years from now depending on how much the price of Big Y700 goes down over time.

Mythtown
12-25-2019, 05:36 PM
I read somewhere yesterday that DNA tests are supposed to a groovy Christmas present this year ... lots of attention among younger people. So that will undoubtedly bring more folks along. Funny to think how relatively long we've been at it and how far things have come from when most of us were simply R1b1c just 15 years ago or so. The latest British Archaeology has an article about aDNA and I was reflecting on how wrong Barry Cunliffe and others were in largely rejecting mass migration as the underlying cause for changes in ancient physical remains.

ArmandoR1b
12-25-2019, 06:45 PM
I read somewhere yesterday that DNA tests are supposed to a groovy Christmas present this year ... lots of attention among younger people. So that will undoubtedly bring more folks along. Funny to think how relatively long we've been at it and how far things have come from when most of us were simply R1b1c just 15 years ago or so.

There will be surges and wanes over a year so any surge for Christmas will likely be offset by wanes during the slow periods. How far we have come even in 10 years does show a lot of hope for the future but I wonder when we will hit a growth wall. Currently the Big Y700 is expensive, even with discounts, so it isn't affordable to a lot of people and the SNP packs and individual SNP testing isn't really economical based on $ per tested SNP so I am hoping there will be a significant drop in price in the not so distant future allowing it to be more affordable to a larger number of people even without a discount and more so with a discount.

linthos
12-26-2019, 02:58 AM
Price is definitely a big factor for myself. Mostly dealing with convincing the wife to let me spend that amount on something like this, even with something like the Christmas sale.

Initially, I just had the Morley predictor guess of SRY2627 from Ancestry data, but that was confirmed by 23andMe which I got for other reasons.

ArmandoR1b
08-16-2020, 12:39 AM
The total count is now 7,291. That is an increase of 500 since my initial post almost 9 months ago. If the future has the same growth it'll take about 4 years to reach 10,000.