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View Full Version : L51 & Sub Clades: Area of Origination Poll for those willing to go out on a limb



MitchellSince1893
04-21-2020, 12:09 AM
This poll is not for most of you, because what if you're wrong! People will later quote you and throw it back in your face...the public ridicule would be unbearable :)

But seriously, this is not an official poll because I want people to have the option to update their opinions in this thread as more data become available.

We have a lot of knowledgeable people on here who have read and studied this topic from various angles for years. Some with archaeological backgrounds, other with linguistic knowledge, others with genetic knowledge etc. Some are a "jack of all trades and master of none"

If you put down your choices and then another member posts something you didn't consider when you first answered, feel free to update your answers. It won't be held against you if you decide to update choices after becoming more informed or convinced of another's point of view.

Regardless, there is this theory the that "wisdom of the crowd can be spot on"; meaning the average of multiple people making guesses will be close to the truth (especially informed ones)
A video illustrating this idea

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qfh-k9P8ZPI

So once we get enough opinions/guesses I will take an average and see where we come out.

Based on your current knowledge, What is your best guess for the location of the origin of:

R-L51
L51>L52, P310, P311
L51>L52, P310, P311>L11, L151
L51>L52, P310, P311>L11/L151>P312
L51>L52, P310, P311>L11/L151>U106
L51>L52, P310, P311>L11/L151> S1194

To make it easier to tabulate, Pick a zone (A-E) for each haplogroup in bold above (you can use the same zone multiple times)
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c5/7c/19/c57c195f2a760fc58d82c7c5ae903f31.png

A=Iberia, most of France, British Isles
B=Mouth of the Rhine to the Mouth of the Oder River (Low countries, Eastern France including Rhone Valley, Germany, Switzerland, Western Czechia, Western Austria, Italy, Denmark, Norway, Western Sweden)
C=Mouth of Oder to Baltic/Balkan Countries (Eastern Czech Rep, Eastern Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Eastern Sweden, Finland, Balkans, Belarus, Far Western Ukraine)
D=North of the Black Sea (Moldova, Most of Ukraine, Large part of European Russia)
E=Further east

For example (these are not my actual choices but just showing format to use)
L51=A (you believe L51 originated in Zone A)
L52=B
L11=C
P312=D
U106=E
S1194=C

Give it some serious thought before you answer and feel free to explain your choices.

Pribislav
04-21-2020, 12:31 AM
L51=E

L52=E

L151=D

P312=C

U106=C

S1194=C

Dieu
04-21-2020, 12:39 AM
L51=E

L52=E (toughest one)

L151=B

P312=B

U106=B

S1194=no idear but i'd say B

w'ere speaking about TMRCA right ?

Piquerobi
04-21-2020, 12:44 AM
Since we have found an Afanasievo sample which is L-52+, that's pretty much enough evidence to me the L-51+ mutation most likely took place in the steppes. The same goes of course for L-52+. As for the rest, I'm still in doubt.

ADW_1981
04-21-2020, 12:57 AM
L51=D
L52=D
L11=C
P312=B
U106=B
S1194=B

rms2
04-21-2020, 01:57 AM
Hard to be precise.

L51=D/E

L52=D/E

L151=D

P312=D/C

U106=D/C

S1194=C (Haven't given that one much thought, so that's totally a shot in the dark.)

Don't think A is even in the running. B barely is.

MitchellSince1893
04-21-2020, 04:05 AM
w'ere speaking about TMRCA right ?
I speaking of formation...where it began.

Piquerobi
04-21-2020, 02:03 PM
S1194=C (Haven't given that one much thought, so that's totally a shot in the dark.)

It is mostly present in countries from Northern Europe, Poland, Germany, Denmark, and the United Kingdom, for example. Their Family Tree DNA page has information about it:

https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/df100-cts4528-l11-p310-l151-p311/about/background

Iain McDonald, back in 2017, cited its patterns, along with those of R1b-U-106, as evidence for R1b-P311 taking a Northern route rather than the Danubian one:


In a wider context, the lack of ancient U106 in the Rhine or Danube valleys, and the lack of haplogroup R and Yamnaya at-DNA in the Globular Amphorae culture suggests the route taken by our common P311 forebears was north of the Carpathians, probably with the Corded Ware culture. I keep changing my mind about how secure this result is, as new data comes in, but I think the latest data add a lot of evidence against the Danubian route. The samborek (Poland) results from before 2672 BC may confirm this. One possibility is that P311 was a coastal culture, which passed around the Baltic coast, and didn't really settle down on land until it reached the Danish Isles. I wouldn't say there's any real evidence for this, necessarily, just that it's an option.

Presumably the raw data will become available on full publication on the articles, at which point it will be interesting to see where any P311xP312xU106 results lie, and whether any further sub-clades can be determined. The distribution of S1194 seems to largely reflect the distribution of U106, which is consistent with them both representing the point from which P311 spread. The rapid uptake of P312 into the Bell Beaker culture, and its rapid spread, means that its modern distribution is more representative of its own founder effect, rather than the P311 founder effect.
https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/R1b1c_U106-S21/conversations/messages/49348

This is a Family Tree DNA page on R1b-S14328 (which is my own y-DNA!), a subclade of S1194:

https://www.familytreedna.com/public/R1b-S14328Genealogy?iframe=ycolorized

MitchellSince1893
04-21-2020, 05:03 PM
My choices and current rationale
L51=E
L52=D
L11/L151=C
P312=C
U106=C
S1194=C

Per Rocca
Aesch25 is the only Aesch sample that plots with Corded Ware and has the highest steppe ancestry (79.8%) of any sample in the entire study.
This Swiss paper says the following

Comparing our newly analyzed individuals from Switzerland with ancient genomes from Great Britain, Iberia, and Germany2,9,21 we modeled the arrival time of the YAM-related ancestry in the different broadly defined European regions (Fig. 2b, see “Methods“). While our models indicate that the proportions of the YAM-related ancestry peaks earlier in the Swiss dataset (around 2750 BCE) compared with the comparative datasets from refs. 2,9,21 (around 2600 BCE), these differences fall within the uncertainty of the analysis (Supplementary Fig. 6), so may be considered suggestive of an earlier arrival of steppe-related ancestry, but not conclusive. We also caution that differences are likely affected by uneven sampling through time in the three different datasets, and so expect the precision of this analysis to improve with denser temporal sampling in the future.

The second distinct cluster is shifted towards the individuals associated with the “Yamnaya” complex, similar to other European groups younger than 2700 BCE,

...individuals from younger sites after ~2700 BCE exhibit substantial amounts of ancestry related to YAM.

So an L51 man with high steppe ancestry arrived in Switzerland no earlier than 2700 BC. Did he come from the SCG area to the North or from the East? If from the SCG area, then that culture begins approx 100 years earlier (2800 BC). I mentioned this often but I tend to go with McDonald's dates for P312 and U106 which are


Clade Best guess 95% confidence interval
R-P312 3079 BC (3764 BC — 2524 BC)
R-U106 3022 BC (3699 BC — 2465 BC)
P312 has to be quite a bit older than 2542 BC because RISE563 (U152+) is dated to 2572-2512 BC.

If McDonald's best guesses for P312 and U106 are approx 3050 BC, then that means L11/L151 is at least that old...say no earlier than 3100 BC for L11/L151 formation. If these dates are accurate and Steppe didn't arrive until establishment of SCG which started in 2800 BC, then by default, L51, L52, L11/L151, U106, P312, S1194 would have formed to the east of Zone B.

The tough question then is how far east do we go.

There is talk of unpublished P312 in Bohemia. Based on what has been said and released, I'm guessing this P312 in Bohemia is ~2900 BC (I could be wrong on this guess)

Starting with the L11/L151 subclades (P312, U106, S1194), lacking ancient dna and based on present day distribution with an affinity to the Baltic region, I could see them forming in Zone C. But it wouldn't surprise me if we later find pre 2700 BC ancient samples in Zone D

So what about L11/L151? I'm hesitant to go too far east because of subclade L51>PF7589. Not aware of any ancient samples, but of the 345 samples in the FTDNA database, 1 is from Turkey, but of the rest, none are further east than Poland (2 samples). Database currently has samples from Poland, Croatia, Czech Rep, Hungary, Sweden, with most non British Isles samples from Germany and Switzerland, Italy and further west.
L11/L151 could have been in an area stretching from Latvia/Lithuania down towards the Black Sea (includes zone C &D). If forced to chose, I'll go with C.

So what about L52? Since it was close call for me on L11/L151, I'll go with zone D

Finally L51. We know L23 was in Zone E (Samara bend ancient dna) and it's found in ancient dna to the east in Afanasievo in last of 4th millenium BC, so I'll go with E

MitchellSince1893
04-23-2020, 06:28 PM
Continuing this train of thought from my post above, most sources I can find have Corded Ware Culture starting around 2900 BC, with a few saying 3000 BC. If McDonald’s best guesses for formation dates for P312 and U106 are close, then it implies they are older than CWC and thus L11/L151 are as well. Y dna line origins don’t necessarily follow cultural origins, but if, in this case they do, then where would we look for the Origin of CWC. At some point Steppe ancestry has to be introduced into CWC, IIRC Aesch25 had 79% Steppe ancestry.

Somewhere north of the Black Sea coast would be a logical choice (zone D). Hence why I said in my previous post

Starting with the L11/L151 subclades (P312, U106, S1194), lacking ancient dna and based on present day distribution with an affinity to the Baltic region, I could see them forming in Zone C.
Starting with the L11/L151 subclades (P312, U106, S1194), lacking ancient dna and based on present day distribution with an affinity to the Baltic region, I could see them forming in Zone C. But it wouldn't surprise me if we later find pre 2700 BC ancient samples in Zone D. But it wouldn't surprise me if we later find pre 2700 BC ancient samples in Zone D

The Yamnaya culture started in 3300 BC according some sources. So it would be old enough for L11/L151 to pick up Steppe ancestry before proceeding to CWC. That’s only one possibility though. The Steppe ancestry could be pre Yamnaya e.g. Sredny Stog culture (4500-3500 BC). In this scenario maybe it was L52 that started in SS before moving north in Forest Steppe, where L11/L151 would later appear before ending up in CWC.

Of course there are probably other possibilities for how Steppe gets into CWC.

razyn
04-23-2020, 06:35 PM
If forced to chose, I'll go with C.

Umm... you designed the poll. If I vote, I'm forced to choose. I've had this same philosophical disconnect with at least two of rms2's polls.

But I do like maps, and you contribute more of them than most. So, carry on.

MitchellSince1893
04-23-2020, 06:41 PM
Umm... you designed the poll. If I vote, I'm forced to choose. I've had this same philosophical disconnect with at least two of rms2's polls.

But I do like maps, and you contribute more of them than most. So, carry on.

I didn’t design the map boundaries to make the choices easy for me. :). Just attempted to put some dividing lines in areas that may make sense geographically. E.g. Iberia/mouth of Rhine River, Oder River (approximates German/Polish border), eastern and western edges of Black Sea.

Webb
04-24-2020, 01:35 PM
I like C for P312, U106, and S1194 because it can be reconciled with current distributions, particularly the smaller P312 clades of DF99 and L238. Which areas of Europe do we find P312, U106, and S1194 overlapping? I like the path through Poland to Northern Germany along the Baltic. This path can also reconcile DF19 and L21 having been around the Mouth of the Rhine, or being Dutch Beaker if we assume that L21, L238, DF19 parted ways with DF99, U152, and DF27 in Northern Germany. It could also explain L21 in Norway if we ever find that L21 in Norway is much earlier than the Viking Period. Also, for a long time there was suggestions of a movement of P312 up the Danube, then down the Rhine, but it is just as possible, if our groups stayed close to the Baltic, then they could have moved up the Oder to access Eastern Europe and could have moved up the Rhine to access interior Germany from the North Sea.

Piquerobi
04-24-2020, 06:55 PM
The TMRCA could be an important clue to finding where the first P311 mutation arose. So far it is not precise enough from what I have seen at yfull. It is kind of interesting trying to imagine the culture, the place and time the first person to carry that mutation lived in; he did not know his mutation would become the most common in Western Europe, and from there in many places beyond.

R.Rocca
04-24-2020, 09:40 PM
L51 = D
L52 = D
L11 = C
P312 = D
U106 = C
S1194 = C

rms2
04-24-2020, 09:43 PM
Umm... you designed the poll. If I vote, I'm forced to choose. I've had this same philosophical disconnect with at least two of rms2's polls.

But I do like maps, and you contribute more of them than most. So, carry on.

You do understand that polls at Anthrogenica are pretty lightweight and are supposed to be just kind of fun and amusing, right?

Nobody really cares how you vote or how I vote, and no one will hold you accountable.

But if you don't want to vote in the poll, that's okay, too.

razyn
04-24-2020, 10:02 PM
You do understand that polls at Anthrogenica are pretty lightweight and are supposed to be just kind of fun and amusing, right?


Much as I've enjoyed criticizing a couple of your efforts to limit our choices to a few predetermined channels, in this case it is a Mitchell leg I am pulling, not a Stevens one. It struck me as ironic that the poll designer would respond to one of his own topics, "If forced to choose..." And I am into irony. Did not vote on yours, did not vote on his, and don't care that you don't care. We have been invited, and in this case I decline the invitation. There have been a few polls here on which I did vote, most recently that one about 2019 papers (where you and I agreed on Mittnik et al).

rms2
04-25-2020, 02:45 AM
And that's fine. Whatever we do here is kind of inconsequential. Vote this way, vote that, or don't vote. Whatever.

If the guys who just yesterday were the biggest proponents of the Iberian LGM Refuge showed up today and proclaimed their devotion to the Kurgan Hypothesis for R1b-L51, I'd be only too happy to forget all about their former bullshit and welcome them into the fold.

MitchellSince1893
04-25-2020, 04:06 AM
Polling Results with 6 to 7 votes.

If Zone B for example got 1 out of 7 votes, 1/7=14% of Zone B closest to the majority votes e.g. C was included.

If you split your votes between 2 zones, I split your votes with 0.5 going to each of your choices.

Far left is the whole zone including water. Middle column was mostly land. Far right column was for those that prefer a North of the Carpathian Route.


https://i.pinimg.com/originals/53/07/11/5307118e1c5cd2cc382d2aa1e853faec.png

TigerMW
04-25-2020, 06:36 PM
We don't have actual SNP ages and SNPs can occur in fits and starts. Nevertheless, counting SNPs gives some idea of relative time and is better than nothing. Since we are talking about formation dates, the phylogenetic block lengths of the P312, U106 layer doesn't matter. They are short anyway.

R-L23 (L23,L478,PF6404)

R-L51 = E (L51,PF6414,PF6535) >>> L51 formed three SNPs after L23 so that it is anywhere from 100-300 years divurged from L23. It doesn't have to be in E but it's the best I can see to go on since we know about L23 and Z2103 in Samara and we have descendant L52 far, far to the east.

L51 > L52 = E (P310,CTS7650,L52,P311,YSC0000082) >>> L52 formed three SNPs after L51. Again that could be 100-300 years later (in addition). It could be further west in D but since we have L52 way over in Afansievo/Mongolia I'll hold on E.

L51 > L52 > L11 = C (L151,L11,YSC0000191) >>> This gets more difficult. L11 formed five SNPs after L52. That could be 200-600 years later which is plenty of time for things to happen. I don't know. I'm throwing my lot in with C. It is three SNPs to its descendants P312 and U106 which expanded like crazy all over zones B and A. That's what led me to pull L11 to C.

The following, P312 and U106, is the great expansion. Their expansions were somewhat isolated. P312 seemed to make hay in the west while U106 did well in the north, although parts of P312 did okay there too. The expansion was focused on zone B but I have a particular opinion about how dramatic migration/settlement population changes happen.

My hypothesis is that dramatic changes, like the P312/Kurgan Bell Beakers, require a strong force of colonizers. This would not be a "scout" out and about that is treated well by the natives in the hinterlands. That's dangerous work. More likely, "generals" leading large expeditions caused the dramatic changes. To have these kinds of expeditions you would have had to have a good population source and supply lines with resources. Therefore, a growing population back home might cause a clan/tribe to be spun off. There could have been stress involved that decision.

L51 > L52 > L11 > P312 = C
L51 > L52 > L11 > U106 = C
L51 > L52> L11 > S1194 = C

Piquerobi
04-25-2020, 07:00 PM
My hypothesis is that dramatic changes, like the P312/Kurgan Bell Beakers, require a strong force of colonizers. This would not be a "scout" out and about that is treated well by the natives in the hinterlands. That's dangerous work. More likely, "generals" leading large expeditions caused the dramatic changes.

Just a wild speculation but the names of those generals may have included something similar to Hengist and Horsa, which mean "stallion" and "horse" respectively.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hengist_and_Horsa

TigerMW
04-25-2020, 10:33 PM
My hypothesis is that dramatic changes, like the P312/Kurgan Bell Beakers, require a strong force of colonizers. This would not be a "scout" out and about that is treated well by the natives in the hinterlands. That's dangerous work. More likely, "generals" leading large expeditions caused the dramatic changes. To have these kinds of expeditions you would have had to have a good population source and supply lines with resources. Therefore, a growing population back home might cause a clan/tribe to be spun off. There could have been stress involved that decision.

P312 subclades DF19, U152, L21 and DF27 each have geographic focus. L21 is perhaps the best example. It had to hit the British Isles very hard to basically knock about everything else out. This was not the offspring of a single "scout" founder. The "generals" must have had a lot of their L21 bethren coming with them to be so effective.

By inference, L21 almost couldn't have originated on the British Isles. The age estimates seem to back that up. The Rhenish/NW Beakers were hitting the Isles about 2300-2000BC but age estimates for L21 are older than that.

MitchellSince1893
04-25-2020, 10:45 PM
...The Yamnaya culture started in 3300 BC according some sources. So it would be old enough for L11/L151 to pick up Steppe ancestry before proceeding to CWC. That’s only one possibility though. The Steppe ancestry could be pre Yamnaya e.g. Sredny Stog culture (4500-3500 BC). In this scenario maybe it was L52 that started in SS before moving north in Forest Steppe, where L11/L151 would later appear before ending up in CWC.

Of course there are probably other possibilities for how Steppe gets into CWC.

As it pertains to this thread, I was reading through this 2018 paper https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29914-5


According to some researchers6,7,8,9, the Yamnaya culture originated in the Volga-Ural interfluve and spread across the Pontic-Caspian steppe between 3,300–2,800 BC. This cultural expansion led to the development of a less homogenous group of cultural entities belonging to the so-called Yamnaya Cultural-Historical Area/Unity10,11, hereafter refered to as ‘the Yamnaya horizon’12. People associated with the eastern Yamnaya culture spread across the steppe to the east of Don River. With no settlements identified in this area, they were thought to be more mobile because of their supposed nomadic profile of economy stimulated by environmental conditions of Kuban – North Caspian steppes13. On the other hand, Yamnaya settlements were found more frequently in the forest-steppe Pontic regions, to the west of Don River, probably due to favorable environmental conditions12.


One of the most widely debated issues, which emerged in connection to studies on the Yamnaya horizon, was the relationship between the people associated with the Yamnaya and the Central European final Neolithic cultures, in particular the Corded Ware culture (dated to 2800–2300 BC)14. Archaeological records point to some similarities between the Corded Ware culture and the steppe, including shared practices such as the barrow structures and burial rituals2. Adoption of a herding economy based on mobility through the use of wagons and horses, was also proposed as a common trait associated with both the Yamnaya and Corded Ware cultures12. These observations led some researchers to suggest a possible Yamnaya migration toward the Baltic drainage basin15 or a massive westward expansion of the steppe pastoralist people, representing the “barrow culture”, into the North European Plain



Based on the X chromosome data obtained mainly from western Corded Ware-associated individuals, it was estimated that, for every female, ~4–15 males migrated from the steppe

Ancient mitochondrial genome data from the western Pontic region and, for the first time, from the south-eastern part of present day Poland, show close genetic affinities between populations associated with the eastern Corded Ware culture and the Yamnaya horizon. This indicates that females had also participated in the migration from the steppe. Furthermore, greater mtDNA differentiation between populations associated with the western Corded Ware culture and the Yamnaya horizon points to an increased contribution of individuals with a maternal Neolithic farmer ancestry with increasing geographic distance from the steppe region, forming the population associated with the western Corded Ware culture.

MitchellSince1893
04-25-2020, 10:58 PM
According to some researchers6,7,8,9, the Yamnaya culture originated in the Volga-Ural interfluve and spread across the Pontic-Caspian steppe between 3,300–2,800 BC. This cultural expansion led to the development of a less homogenous group of cultural entities belonging to the so-called Yamnaya Cultural-Historical Area/Unity10,11, hereafter refered to as ‘the Yamnaya horizon’12. People associated with the eastern Yamnaya culture spread across the steppe to the east of Don River. With no settlements identified in this area, they were thought to be more mobile because of their supposed nomadic profile of economy stimulated by environmental conditions of Kuban – North Caspian steppes13. On the other hand, Yamnaya settlements were found more frequently in the forest-steppe Pontic regions, to the west of Don River, probably due to favorable environmental conditions12.

For Geographic Reference to the "Volga Ural interfluve" mentioned in post right above. Which is coincidentally, in Zone E south of the "L51" label in post 19 (https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?20130-L51-amp-Sub-Clades-Area-of-Origination-Poll-for-those-willing-to-go-out-on-a-limb&p=661968&viewfull=1#post661968) (post with the maps)

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/11/8a/03/118a03c309236609f3e9d51ce07dc3ae.png
http://www.kirj.ee/public/Archaeology/2016/issue_2/arch-2016-2-128-149.pdf

MitchellSince1893
04-26-2020, 07:38 AM
...Of course there are probably other possibilities for how Steppe gets into CWC.

On a related note from davidski at Eurogenes


What you'll see in the new data is that a population almost exactly like Yamnaya already lived way up north near the Don River at least a thousand years before Yamnaya.

The formation of this population is still a mystery, and I don't think the new data will resolve this problem anytime soon, but it seems to me that ultimately it was a fusion of two or three different hunter-fisher populations living in different parts of the steppe. https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?postID=8273607634081072970&blogID=4123559132014627431&isPopup=true&page=2

1000 years prior to Yamnaya would be 4300 BC, but Sredny Stog culture (4500-3500 BC) could still be a possible source for this Steppe.

I just asked generlissimo on another thread if there was any ancient samples in the pipeline for SS. He responded
Yep, apparently Z2103 and already very similar to Yamnaya.

TigerMW
04-26-2020, 04:06 PM
... Sredny Stog culture (4500-3500 BC) could still be a possible source for Steppe.

I just asked generlissimo on another thread if there was any ancient samples in the pipeline for SS. He responded


Yep, apparently Z2103 and already very similar to Yamnaya

What's the radio carbon dating on that Z2103? Is it earlier than at Samara Oblast?

MitchellSince1893
04-26-2020, 04:38 PM
What's the radio carbon dating on that Z2103? Is it earlier than at Samara Oblast?
Generalissimo might know...I didn’t see where it was mentioned.

TigerMW
04-28-2020, 02:14 PM
Generalissimo might know...I didn’t see where it was mentioned.
I presume it was earlier since the culture was earlier but I think the actual dating of Z2103 and L23 are important. This could be the earliest.

GoldenHind
04-29-2020, 12:05 AM
I haven'y been inclined to vote in this poll for several reasons, primarily because I don't have a firm opinion. I tend to be cautious and try to keep an open mind as new data comes in. Another problem is there could be large difference, both in time and place, between where these markers first occurred, and where and when their descendants began to rapidly expand. The latter is much easier to predict than the former, as theese markers may have existed in fairly small numbers for some time before they began their later expansion.

I don't think I'm going out on a limb to say I think Zone A is preposterous for the birth of any these markers.

I do suspect that both P312 and U106 first occurred in a place and time which were reasonably close to each other. I would be most inclined to choose Zone C, but I don't think one can currently rule out neighboring zones B and D. I also suspect that both subclades spoke an early IE language, probably what Jean M. referred to as Alteuropäisch, ancestor to both Italo-Celtic and at least to some extent of proto-Germanic.

MitchellSince1893
04-30-2020, 10:41 PM
In another thread, dsm has proposed a hypothesis that I think makes a lot of sense.

For a detailed explanation of his hypothosis
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?20189-Corded-Ware-A-Horizon-and-P310-P311-L52&p=662661&viewfull=1#post662661
and
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?20189-Corded-Ware-A-Horizon-and-P310-P311-L52/page4

As it pertains to L23, L51, and Z2103:
1. L23 is in the Perm/Samara/Khazan area.
2. L51 appears in Kazan area (from Perm you would go downstream on the Kama River where it flows into Volga, and then upstream on the Volga)
3. Z2103 appears in the Samara area (downstream of Perm and Kazan on the Volga)
4. L51 goes upstream on the Volga and tributaries which heads west towards future Corded Ware area
5. Z2103 heads downstream on the Volga and eventually ends up in Yamnaya

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f6/30/31/f63031353c7000fa5edcb0ce01c4faa9.png

Sure you have some L52 heading east into Afanasevo cultural area, but overall it appears to be a parsimonious model.

dsm
04-30-2020, 11:13 PM
In another thread, dsm has proposed a hypothesis that I think makes a lot of sense.

For a detailed explanation of his hypothosis
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?20189-Corded-Ware-A-Horizon-and-P310-P311-L52&p=662661&viewfull=1#post662661
and
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?20189-Corded-Ware-A-Horizon-and-P310-P311-L52/page4

As it pertains to L23, L51, and Z2103:
1. L23 is in the Perm/Samara/Khazan area.
2. L51 appears in Kazan area (from Perm you would go downstream on the Kama River where it flows into Volga, and then upstream on the Volga)
3. Z2103 appears in the Samara area (downstream of Perm and Kazan on the Volga)
4. L51 goes upstream on the Volga and tributaries which heads west towards future Corded Ware area
5. Z2103 heads downstream on the Volga and eventually ends up in Yamnaya

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f6/30/31/f63031353c7000fa5edcb0ce01c4faa9.png

Sure you have some L52 heading east into Afanasevo cultural area, but overall it appears to be a parsimonious model.

That sums it up pretty well. Thanks. The big surprise on the way is a paper expected soon that is understood to place L51 in a burial at Sakhtysh which is above and to the right of Moscow. When this gets published, it provides us with data we have been long missing.

Anyone wanting to see really useful data about Cordedware emergence should spend time playing with the interactive map created by Mikkel Nortoft (google "Mikkel Nortoft Homeland Map"). it was funded by the Carlsberg foundation. It is a watershed tool for visualizing ancient burial finds interactively.

The cultures that are likely to matter in our evolution from Perm-Kazan-Samara are (oldest 1st) the Kama Culture (Kama River between Perm and the Volga) followed by (south on the Volga) the Samara Culture, Khvalynsk Culture, Yamnaya Culture. While from Kazan and north on the Volga, the Volosovo Culture, that morphs into Cordedware, mixes with GAC and morphs into BB.

Dieu
04-30-2020, 11:56 PM
In another thread, dsm has proposed a hypothesis that I think makes a lot of sense.

For a detailed explanation of his hypothosis
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?20189-Corded-Ware-A-Horizon-and-P310-P311-L52&p=662661&viewfull=1#post662661
and
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?20189-Corded-Ware-A-Horizon-and-P310-P311-L52/page4

As it pertains to L23, L51, and Z2103:
1. L23 is in the Perm/Samara/Khazan area.
2. L51 appears in Kazan area (from Perm you would go downstream on the Kama River where it flows into Volga, and then upstream on the Volga)
3. Z2103 appears in the Samara area (downstream of Perm and Kazan on the Volga)
4. L51 goes upstream on the Volga and tributaries which heads west towards future Corded Ware area
5. Z2103 heads downstream on the Volga and eventually ends up in Yamnaya

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f6/30/31/f63031353c7000fa5edcb0ce01c4faa9.png

Sure you have some L52 heading east into Afanasevo cultural area, but overall it appears to be a parsimonious model.


Seems very plausible according to recent leaks and even old ones revealed by Anthrogenica most beloved friend: Gaska, back in september or october 2019 on eurogene. He was speaking about a coming spanish study on El agar with the noble/elite population coming from North russia according to the research team and slaves/peasants being from local farmer stock.

dsm
05-01-2020, 12:09 AM
This map showing Sakhtysh and its relation to Moscow. Again, if (when) the paper gets published showing ancient L51 at this location it becomes a game-changer. (PS The paper about the finds is already long available - it is the DNA analysis follow up that we are waiting on). I will post a link to the paper itself (we are still waiting on the deep dive into the DNA).

37446

The really significant part to me is how far from the river systems Sakhtysh is. That in turn suggest established communities. This area sits in the Volosovo Culture region and is also showing up in the early Cordedware that Volosovo blended into.

37447

dsm
05-01-2020, 12:50 AM
Polling Results with 6 to 7 votes.

If Zone B for example got 1 out of 7 votes, 1/7=14% of Zone B closest to the majority votes e.g. C was included.

If you split your votes between 2 zones, I split your votes with 0.5 going to each of your choices.

Far left is the whole zone including water. Middle column was mostly land. Far right column was for those that prefer a North of the Carpathian Route.


https://i.pinimg.com/originals/53/07/11/5307118e1c5cd2cc382d2aa1e853faec.png

A very good visual. The Rightmost column is IMHO the best solution. Maybe L11 could prove a little further East but that hinges on any upcoming papers identifying L51 ancient burials in Russia (meaning in proximity to Moscow). As already said, such finds will be a game changer.

dsm
05-01-2020, 12:59 AM
We don't have actual SNP ages and SNPs can occur in fits and starts. Nevertheless, counting SNPs gives some idea of relative time and is better than nothing. Since we are talking about formation dates, the phylogenetic block lengths of the P312, U106 layer doesn't matter. They are short anyway.

R-L23 (L23,L478,PF6404)

R-L51 = E (L51,PF6414,PF6535) >>> L51 formed three SNPs after L23 so that it is anywhere from 100-300 years divurged from L23. It doesn't have to be in E but it's the best I can see to go on since we know about L23 and Z2103 in Samara and we have descendant L52 far, far to the east.

L51 > L52 = E (P310,CTS7650,L52,P311,YSC0000082) >>> L52 formed three SNPs after L51. Again that could be 100-300 years later (in addition). It could be further west in D but since we have L52 way over in Afansievo/Mongolia I'll hold on E.

L51 > L52 > L11 = C (L151,L11,YSC0000191) >>> This gets more difficult. L11 formed five SNPs after L52. That could be 200-600 years later which is plenty of time for things to happen. I don't know. I'm throwing my lot in with C. It is three SNPs to its descendants P312 and U106 which expanded like crazy all over zones B and A. That's what led me to pull L11 to C.

The following, P312 and U106, is the great expansion. Their expansions were somewhat isolated. P312 seemed to make hay in the west while U106 did well in the north, although parts of P312 did okay there too. The expansion was focused on zone B but I have a particular opinion about how dramatic migration/settlement population changes happen.

My hypothesis is that dramatic changes, like the P312/Kurgan Bell Beakers, require a strong force of colonizers. This would not be a "scout" out and about that is treated well by the natives in the hinterlands. That's dangerous work. More likely, "generals" leading large expeditions caused the dramatic changes. To have these kinds of expeditions you would have had to have a good population source and supply lines with resources. Therefore, a growing population back home might cause a clan/tribe to be spun off. There could have been stress involved that decision.

L51 > L52 > L11 > P312 = C
L51 > L52 > L11 > U106 = C
L51 > L52> L11 > S1194 = C


Mike, Those SNPs between L23 and L51/Z2103 are quite important. It provides the gap needed to allow L51 and Z2103 to be apart enough that they became separate groups following different paths.

What I also find intriguing is that the oldest R1a and R1b (per Mikkel Nortoft's Homeland Map) both emerged at around the same date and in the same location (Samara). This is said to be 5200-4000BCE (7,200-6,000 ybp).
If these are the oldest, then we are saying that all R1b & R1a migrations started here at roughly the same time and have to have followed similar paths, except, I don't see very many if any R1a ancient burials on the Samara to Carpathian route (Only Z2103 & I2).

In fact, is this telling us that R1a migrations went north up the Volga along with R1b-L51 and next to no surviving R1a went down the Volga with Z2103 ? - just an emerging thought.

dsm
05-01-2020, 04:45 AM
Here is info on the original study done at Sakhtysh Russia.

As said, it is a recent analysis of the burials that is the big
news when they finally publish it.

artifacts-from-organic-materials-found-in-the-graves-and-shrines-of-sakhtysh-iia-burial-ground-centr.pdf

Summary:
Sakhtysh-IIa burial ground was explored by the Upper Volga expedition of the Institute of Archaeology of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 1980–1990. 72 Neolithic-Aeneolithic graves attributed to the Lialovo and Volosovo cultures of 4th and 3rd millennia BC were found in its territory. The composition of the burial inventory reveals distinct cultural differences. A small number of bone tools were found in the graves attributed to the Lialovo culture. Various ornaments made of animal teeth and bone were found in the graves attributed to the Volosovo culture. Domi-nating among them were pendants made from the teeth of the bear the cult of which had broad rep-resentation in Volosovo culture.

Andour
05-02-2020, 09:57 PM
Considering the proviso granted by the OP that nothing, however stupid, will "be held against us", I'll have a crack at it...

R-L51 : E (Samara bend or thereabouts, left behind by their Z2103 brothers, who went downriver, then west)
L51>L52, P310, P311 : D (somewhere along the upper reaches of the Volga - north of Moscow ?)
L51>L52, P310, P311>L11, L151 : C (Lithuania / Latvia, or North Belarus)
L51>L52, P310, P311>L11/L151>P312 : B (North Sea coast of Denmark)
L51>L52, P310, P311>L11/L151>U106 : B (Danish Baltic Isles, Southern tip of Sweden)
L51>L52, P310, P311>L11/L151> S1194 : no idea...

Until proven wrong, I'll stick to my view that L51 were "not exactly" Corded Ware people. For the time being, I still hold they were similar, but distinct. They probably went up and down the Volga in boats for centuries, and used their sailing skills to bypass the CW core by sea, with a stopover somewhere in Denmark on their way. Then, as of 2500 BC, they expanded massively into CW territories from the west, following rivers again (up the Rhine, down the danube and the Rhone), pushing the R1a they did not assimilate eastwards, and virtually bringing the CW culture to an end in Central Europe. The CWC is said to have come to an end around 2200 BC, which is also the date that marks the beginning of the Sintashta culture. In other words, after R1b went west, (quite a few) R1a went east.

This "similar but distinct" hypothesis is the only one I can think of to get around the Centum/Satem linguistic issue, vastly neglected by most here, but which to me has long been a source of perplexity.

AlfonsoVIII
05-08-2020, 09:40 AM
L51=C
L52=C
P312=B
U106=B
S1194=B

rms2
06-11-2020, 05:15 PM
. . .

To make it easier to tabulate, Pick a zone (A-E) for each haplogroup in bold above (you can use the same zone multiple times)
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c5/7c/19/c57c195f2a760fc58d82c7c5ae903f31.png

A=Iberia, most of France, British Isles
B=Mouth of the Rhine to the Mouth of the Oder River (Low countries, Eastern France including Rhone Valley, Germany, Switzerland, Western Czechia, Western Austria, Italy, Denmark, Norway, Western Sweden)
C=Mouth of Oder to Baltic/Balkan Countries (Eastern Czech Rep, Eastern Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Eastern Sweden, Finland, Balkans, Belarus, Far Western Ukraine)
D=North of the Black Sea (Moldova, Most of Ukraine, Large part of European Russia)
E=Further east

. . .

Things seem to be pretty dull around here, so I thought would post once again in this thread, since its subject is interesting at least. I posted the above only so I can show the original maps and the choices again. This post is not really a response to that post per se.

Here's something I want to offer for consideration. If we go with YFull's estimate of the age of L51, which ranges from 6100 ybp for its formation to 5700 ybp for the tmrca, how does that affect our opinions on the subject of this poll?

Someone advised me that YFull doesn't use 1950 as "the present" but instead uses the year of the latest version of its Y tree. So, to make things simpler, let's just go with the year 2000. It makes the calculations quick and easy and isn't too far off. That would mean L51 dates back to between 4100 and 3700 BC.

So, when taking a stab at this poll, you have to ask yourself what people or culture you think formed the milieu in which L51 arose, and where those people or culture were at that time.

If you are one of those people who chose C or someplace west of it, ask yourself who was living there between 4100 and 3700 BC. If you think L51 is native to central or western Europe, realize that that region was occupied by Neolithic farmers at that time. Therefore, if you are voting for C, B, or A, you are basically saying you think L51 arose among ANF or EEF types and should not be attributed to steppe pastoralists.

The only exception would be if you endorse Gimbutas' "Three Waves" idea and are crediting L51 to Kurgan Wave 1 in the Carpathian Basin, which would be in Zone C. Gimbutas dated Wave 1 to 4400 - 4300 BC. That's slightly earlier than YFull's formation age for L51, but it's good enough for government work, and it puts steppe pastoralists in Zone C in plenty of time for L51 to have formed there about 4100 BC. Wave 2 didn't begin until 3500 BC.

Is that it? Or do you think L51 arose among the Neolithic farmers of Europe?

dsm
08-01-2020, 12:23 AM
Just looked at this map again & added one more arrow to your diag :)

Afanasievo L23-L51-L52 (aka P310) ancient burial that has a near
identical age to the Oldest L23-Z2103 find at Samara, this implying
that L51 was in the area we discussed.

Cheers Doug38826

razyn
10-19-2020, 02:19 PM
Olivier Lemercier, perhaps the foremost French authority on Bell Beaker archaeology, has uploaded a 2018 paper (late enough in that year to cite Olalde et al) to Academia. I've just skimmed it, supposedly a 40 minute read. But it has a plethora of nice maps, including several of Corded Ware. Lots of grist for this mill; I don't believe it has been cited previously (and excuse me, if it has). I'm mostly working outdoors this week, and don't have time to check that. If you download the PDF, it's a 12 MB file. https://www.academia.edu/38019997/LEMERCIER_O_2018_Think_and_Act_Local_Data_and_Glob al_Perspectives_in_Bell_Beaker_Archaeology_Journal _of_Neolithic_Archaeology_20_2018S_p_77_96?email_w ork_card=abstract-read-more

TigerMW
10-23-2020, 06:59 PM
Just looked at this map again & added one more arrow to your diag :)

Afanasievo L23-L51-L52 (aka P310) ancient burial that has a near
identical age to the Oldest L23-Z2103 find at Samara, this implying
that L51 was in the area we discussed.

Cheers Doug38826

I don't know where L51's MRCA or L52's MRCA lived. I have previously said I thought L52(R-P310) must be from the Pontic Steppes area because we find it way out near Lake Baikal and Mongolia in Afanasievo. The early timing about 3000 BC means the L52 MRCA probably didn't live in western or central Europe.

This is a suggestion or idea for the map. I would put L52 (and probably L51 since I have no better idea for it) a little further south, just west of the Volga River near the Don River. This is old, pre-Yamnaya Repin Culture area.

This is not a certainty, but I'm just putting two and two together. David Anthony said the founders of Afanasievo took the material aspects of the Repin Culture to the east. Some Corded Ware individuals have greater affinity to Afanasievo than to the Samara Oblast Yamnaya.

Dieu
12-12-2020, 04:20 PM
L51=E

L52=E (toughest one)

L151=B

P312=B

U106=B

S1194=no idear but i'd say B

w'ere speaking about TMRCA right ?

L51=D

L52=D

L151=B

P312=B

U106=B

S1194=no idear but i'd say B

Now this is what I think