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jdean
01-24-2021, 12:19 PM
In the recent table published by the Reich Lab RISE550 is labelled R1b1a1b1a (L51), can't help wonder if that's a typo but it is a shotgun result.

3335-2634 calBCE (4312±94 BP, IGAN-2880)
Russia_Kalmykia_EBA_Yamnaya.SG
Peshany V Russia
lat, long 46.556,43.676 (https://www.google.com/maps/place/46°33'21.6"N+43°40'33.6"E/@46.556,43.673806,7z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d46.556!4d43.676)

Silesian
01-24-2021, 12:40 PM
Speaking of pots and people, I do think the pots support the DNA in showing how Single Grave Corded Ware in the Lower Rhine morphed into Bell Beaker.

Look at the transformation of the AOO (All Over Ornamented) and AOC (All Over Corded) beakers that began in Single Grave Corded Ware and became Bell Beaker beakers as undecorated zones were added and widened.

42821 I'm interested in your views about L51 pottery transition from perpetual mobile farming and or/harvesting, to sedentary farming.Different styles, one is perpetual motion, versus a planting local roots scenario..

rms2
01-24-2021, 02:24 PM
I'm interested in your views about L51 pottery transition from perpetual mobile farming and or/harvesting, to sedentary farming.Different styles, one is perpetual motion, versus a planting local roots scenario..

That's not something I have thought much about. Pretty obviously, both Corded Ware and Beaker were mobile pastoralists. That's one reason why their settlements are scarce and most of what is known about them comes from burials.

The ubiquitous beakers were apparently an important part of some sort of drinking ritual, perhaps religious, which is why they were used as grave goods, especially in male burials.

rms2
01-24-2021, 02:24 PM
In the recent table published by the Reich Lab RISE550 is labelled R1b1a1b1a (L51), can't help wonder if that's a typo but it is a shotgun result.

3335-2634 calBCE (4312±94 BP, IGAN-2880)
Russia_Kalmykia_EBA_Yamnaya.SG
Peshany V Russia
lat, long 46.556,43.676 (https://www.google.com/maps/place/46°33'21.6"N+43°40'33.6"E/@46.556,43.673806,7z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d46.556!4d43.676)

I'm hoping that is right and represents an update, but I just looked at Jean Manco's old Ancient Eurasian DNA site, and it says RISE550 was found by Sergey Malyshev to be Z8129/Y12537 (equivalent to Z2103).

Maybe someone could recheck that one. Perhaps this latest entry from Reich is correct?

:(

jdean
01-24-2021, 02:51 PM
I'm hoping that is right and represents an update, but I just looked at Jean Manco's old Ancient Eurasian DNA site, and it says RISE550 was found by Sergey Malyshev to be Z8129/Y12537 (equivalent to Z2103).

Maybe someone could recheck that one. Perhaps this latest entry from Reich is correct?

:(

I hope so too, don't know but this might be a newer analysis, the sample is referred to as RISE550.SG which sounds like it could be an effort to differentiate it from anouther ?

Also Z8129 looks to be in a pretty rubbish area to go looking for SNPs even in modern samples let alone rotted aDNA

And on top of that Z8129 is a C to T mutation which are problematic in aDNA

rms2
01-24-2021, 03:01 PM
I hope so too, don't know but this might be a newer analysis, the sample is referred to as RISE550.SG which sounds like it could be an effort to differentiate it from anouther ?

Also Z8129 looks to be in a pretty rubbish area to go looking for SNPs even in modern samples let alone rotted aDNA

And on top of that Z8129 is a C to T mutation which are problematic in aDNA

Over in the Ancient DNA subforum I just put out a plea for anyone with the skills and computer power to take another look at that one.

Wish I could do it!

rms2
01-24-2021, 03:23 PM
Over in the Ancient DNA subforum I just put out a plea for anyone with the skills and computer power to take another look at that one.

Wish I could do it!

I also sent off an email to one of the addresses Reich provides for questions and concerns.

Will I get an answer?

I kept my email very brief and to the point.

Silesian
01-24-2021, 03:45 PM
That's not something I have thought much about. Pretty obviously, both Corded Ware and Beaker were mobile pastoralists. That's one reason why their settlements are scarce and most of what is known about them comes from burials.

The ubiquitous beakers were apparently an important part of some sort of drinking ritual, perhaps religious, which is why they were used as grave goods, especially in male burials.
Grave goods associated with climate/ topography/local resources.
I woke up this morning to -10C, its really nice when you can just adjust your furnace settings in bed using wifi.
Question about adapting to new climatic regions and grave goods. Is it easier to adapt to one type of region than another?
If you had a choice (L51+) to build a wagon and live a mobile pastoral life with 100's of domesticated animals, including horse, cow, sheep, etc, on the Steppe, where seasonal temperatures range from -15C----+25C. Versus a sedentary farming settlement in temperate +15C climate .

Coldmountains
01-24-2021, 03:56 PM
I'm hoping that is right and represents an update, but I just looked at Jean Manco's old Ancient Eurasian DNA site, and it says RISE550 was found by Sergey Malyshev to be Z8129/Y12537 (equivalent to Z2103).

Maybe someone could recheck that one. Perhaps this latest entry from Reich is correct?

:(

He was also analyzed here
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?20521-Y-Chromosome-Haplogroup-assignments-for-2500-ancient-samples/page3

RISE550.SG Russia_EBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia.SG R1b1a1b1b4 (under Z2103)

R1b1a1b1b4:BY3719

But also C to T

In the snp file he is also called for L617 (under L51), which probably is the snp on which they based L51+ if they not used another genome here
R1b1a1b1a1a2a2a:L617

https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-L617/

rms2
01-24-2021, 03:56 PM
Grave goods associated with climate/ topography/local resources.
I woke up this morning to -10C, its really nice when you can just adjust your furnace settings in bed using wifi.
Question about adapting to new climatic regions and grave goods. Is it easier to adapt to one type of region than another?
If you had a choice (L51+) to build a wagon and live a mobile pastoral life with 100's of domesticated animals, including horse, cow, sheep, etc, on the Steppe, where seasonal temperatures range from -15C----+25C. Versus a sedentary farming settlement in temperate +15C climate .

From what I have seen, neither Corded Ware nor Beaker settled down to a sedentary farming lifestyle. That apparently took time and transpired in stages in subsequent European cultures.

According to Kristiansen and Reich, Corded Ware burned and cut down trees to recreate a steppe-like environment for their livestock.

rms2
01-24-2021, 04:01 PM
He was also analyzed here
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?20521-Y-Chromosome-Haplogroup-assignments-for-2500-ancient-samples/page3

RISE550.SG Russia_EBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia.SG R1b1a1b1b4 (under Z2103)

R1b1a1b1b4:BY3719

But also C to T

In the snp file he is also called for L617 (under L51), which probably is the snp on which they based L51+ if they not used another genome here
R1b1a1b1a1a2a2a:L617

https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-L617/

Sounds kind of shaky all the way around.

Hopefully I'll get an answer from Reich's lab.

Hoppo
01-24-2021, 04:06 PM
Excuse me, but steppe DNA is not wholly CHG. You're squeezing details out of one simple graphic that I don't think you're justified in doing. You also seem to be straining at a gnat and swallowing a camel. You've picked out the one outlier, who nevertheless is not bereft of steppe DNA, meanwhile ignoring the rest, using that one singleton to "lend credence to the old myth about L51 Beaker origins in Iberia", when, as the one exception, it does just the opposite.

Besides that, I2416 was a Beaker man, not Corded Ware. Beaker was derived from Single Grave Corded Ware, but it was not itself Corded Ware. It's possible that I2416 came not from the Lower Rhine, which was probably the source of R1b-L21 Beaker, but from Bretagne or even Iberia, from a line that had been among a larger Neolithic Farmer population and thus had more admixture. As Reich mentioned in his book, Iberia experienced a 30% turnover in total population, but a 90%+ turnover in Y-DNA, with R1b-L51 replacing native Neolithic Farmer Y-DNA.

If you take a look at Figure S2 on page 155 of the final print version of the Olalde et al Supplementary Info, you will see that I2416, although shifted farther to the right (toward Anatolia_N) than the rest of British Beaker, still has steppe DNA and is well to the left (toward Steppe_EBA) of the Iberians without steppe DNA.

I2416 is shifted a little farther toward Steppe_EBA than most of the Iberian Beaker samples that also have steppe DNA: MAD2 - I6472, I6539, I6588, and I6623; and BUR2 - I0461, I0462, and I5665.

From the Olalde et al Supplementary Info, page 147:



I made and labeled a little screenshot of the relevant section of Figure S2 to illustrate.

42765

I don't have a detailed breakdown of the autosomal DNA of each of those samples, but they all had steppe DNA, which can readily be seen.
I would pick out both Bowmen, as they were the earliest of the bunch and potentially indicate ancestry of the others. At opposite ends of the spectrum, they look weird.
Why in Britain would we find two early highly divergent non-native types buried together - an older DF27 guy looking autosomally like an Iberian Neolithic with a young L21 man with DNA that makes it look like one of his parents emerged straight out of Mesolithic Karelia? All these two seem to have had in common was the shape of their heads and a shared L51 ancestor from several hundred years beforehand. Neither looks like the Corded Ware or SGC they came from, so something's not quite right in my view.
In Olaide's chart, there are slithers of the CHG in Steppe DNA in Iberia Chalcolithic as much as in Iberia Beaker Complex, so I don't see any significant Corded Ware derived L51 Beaker there at all.
What do you mean when you say Single Grave Corded Ware is not itself Corded Ware? What is the difference? Which did L51 come from, do we know? How is the earliest European L51 in the Alps when I thought it came from SGC Denmark?

rms2
01-24-2021, 04:19 PM
I would pick out both Bowmen, as they were the earliest of the bunch and potentially indicate ancestry of the others. At opposite ends of the spectrum, they look weird.
Why in Britain would we find two early highly divergent non-native types buried together - an older DF27 guy looking autosomally like an Iberian Neolithic with a young L21 man with DNA that makes it look like one of his parents emerged straight out of Mesolithic Karelia? All these two seem to have had in common was the shape of their heads and a shared L51 ancestor from several hundred years beforehand. Neither looks like the Corded Ware or SGC they came from, so something's not quite right in my view.
In Olaide's chart, there are slithers of the CHG in Steppe DNA in Iberia Chalcolithic as much as in Iberia Beaker Complex, so I don't see any significant Corded Ware derived L51 Beaker there at all.
What do you mean when you say Single Grave Corded Ware is not itself Corded Ware? What is the difference? Which did L51 come from, do we know? How is the earliest European L51 in the Alps when I thought it came from SGC Denmark?

I don't want to sound rude, but where the heck are you getting the erroneous idea that I2416 looked autosomally like an Iberian Neolithic?

Did you not read the posts in which I quoted Olalde et al to show that I2416 had steppe DNA and thus was NOTHING LIKE AN IBERIAN NEOLITHIC?

Did you miss the screenshot I posted of Figure S2 from the Olalde et al Supplementary Info that showed where I2416 stood relative to not only Iberian Neolithic farmers (who were way to the right on the graphic, in Anatolia_N territory) but to two of the Iberian Beaker groups (BUR2 and MAD2) who, like I2416, had steppe DNA and also were not like Neolithic Iberians?

I did not say Single Grave Corded Ware is not Corded Ware. I said Beaker is not Corded Ware. It was derived from Single Grave Corded Ware, but it represents a later development. Similarly, Corded Ware is not Yamnaya, even though it was derived from Yamnaya.

You must also have missed the PCA graphic from Eurogenes I posted showing that I2417, another of the Boscombe Bowmen, was autosomally pretty much exactly like Corded Ware.

I'm beginning to wonder what you're driving at, but it's starting to sound familiar.

Silesian
01-24-2021, 04:29 PM
From what I have seen, neither Corded Ware nor Beaker settled down to a sedentary farming lifestyle. That apparently took time and transpired in stages in subsequent European cultures.

According to Kristiansen and Reich, Corded Ware burned and cut down trees to recreate a steppe-like environment for their livestock.
Barrow burials like Varangian chieftains are spread all over, Ukraine,Hungary,Netherlands etc....


There are over 40,000 tumuli in the Great Hungarian Plain, the highest is Gödény-halom near the settlement of Békésszentandrás, in Békés county.

Burial mounds are the most numerous archaeological monuments in the Netherlands. In many places, these prehistoric graves are still clearly visible as low hills. The oldest tumuli (grafheuvels) in the Netherlands were built near Apeldoorn about 5,000 years ago. Concentrations of tumuli from the Bronze Age are located on the Veluwe and Drenthe.


In Ukraine and Russia, there are royal kurgans of Varangian chieftains, such as the Black Grave in Ukrainian Chernihiv (excavated in the 19th century), Oleg's Grave in Russian Staraya Ladoga, and vast, intricate Rurik's Hill near Russian Novgorod. Other important kurgans are found in Ukraine and South Russia and are associated with much more ancient steppe peoples, notably the Scythians (e.g., Chortomlyk, Pazyryk) and early Indo-Europeans (e.g., Ipatovo kurgan)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f9/Trizna_1899.jpg

Dewsloth
01-24-2021, 04:55 PM
I'm interested in your views about L51 pottery transition from perpetual mobile farming and or/harvesting, to sedentary farming.Different styles, one is perpetual motion, versus a planting local roots scenario..

The complete patterns of the early ones resemble the patterns on woven baskets. Something a mobile culture would value for said mobility. maybe they kept the patterns in more durable but less mobile clay after putting down roots, and then the patterns morph over time as their connection to basketry decreases.

rms2
01-24-2021, 05:14 PM
. . . How is the earliest European L51 in the Alps when I thought it came from SGC Denmark?

Luck of the publication date of the papers, I guess.

Furtwängler et al has already been published (2020), with its old lakeside Swiss Corded Ware. So, we know about them, and they are pretty old.

Meanwhile, we're still waiting on the thus-far-only-rumored big Single Grave Corded Ware L51 paper. I don't know if it will include SGC from Denmark, but hopefully it will. I was thinking Netherlands/North Germany, but I don't know that for sure either. Maybe it's all just wishful thinking anyway. The rumors have been floating around from more than one source since September of 2019, so, who knows?

Remember, too, that the oldest R1b-L51 (P310/L52 really) we know of thus far is I6222 (3316-2918 BC), an Afanasievo individual from Mongolia.

In other words, L51 did not "come from" either Swiss CW or SGC in Denmark. It came from the Eurasian steppe, undoubtedly via the Yamnaya tribes that were in on the CWC-X horizon (c. 3000-2900 BC) and the genesis of Corded Ware in the NW Ukraine/E Slovakia/SE Poland region.

R1b Corded Ware (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WhUiR1AoupXETsh0h9XocLKMq8ics4QrUl4m8BLf6t8/edit?usp=sharing)

Webb
01-24-2021, 05:29 PM
He was also analyzed here
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?20521-Y-Chromosome-Haplogroup-assignments-for-2500-ancient-samples/page3

RISE550.SG Russia_EBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia.SG R1b1a1b1b4 (under Z2103)

R1b1a1b1b4:BY3719

But also C to T

In the snp file he is also called for L617 (under L51), which probably is the snp on which they based L51+ if they not used another genome here
R1b1a1b1a1a2a2a:L617

https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-L617/

The BY3719 call is more probable as L617 is quite a ways below DF27 and has a formed date of 247AD, per Ytree.

rms2
01-24-2021, 05:39 PM
The BY3719 call is more probable as L617 is quite a ways below DF27 and has a formed date of 247AD, per Ytree.

Probably neither are any good.

etrusco
01-24-2021, 06:14 PM
Luck of the publication date of the papers, I guess.

Furtwängler et al has already been published (2020), with its old lakeside Swiss Corded Ware. So, we know about them, and they are pretty old.

Meanwhile, we're still waiting on the thus-far-only-rumored big Single Grave Corded Ware L51 paper. I don't know if it will include SGC from Denmark, but hopefully it will. I was thinking Netherlands/North Germany, but I don't know that for sure either. Maybe it's all just wishful thinking anyway. The rumors have been floating around from more than one source since September of 2019, so, who knows?

Remember, too, that the oldest R1b-L51 (P310/L52 really) we know of thus far is I6222 (3316-2918 BC), an Afanasievo individual from Mongolia.

In other words, L51 did not "come from" either Swiss CW or SGC in Denmark. It came from the Eurasian steppe, undoubtedly via the Yamnaya tribes that were in on the CWC-X horizon (c. 3000-2900 BC) and the genesis of Corded Ware in the NW Ukraine/E Slovakia/SE Poland region.

R1b Corded Ware (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WhUiR1AoupXETsh0h9XocLKMq8ics4QrUl4m8BLf6t8/edit?usp=sharing)

I was wondering about the R1b in Corded Ware. We did not get many information on the issue linked to the physical aspect of these folks. For example the swiss ones do show any sign of strong brachicephaly? This is an aspect that frequently comes out in the BB talks.

rms2
01-24-2021, 06:29 PM
I was wondering about the R1b in Corded Ware. We did not get many information on the issue linked to the physical aspect of these folks. For example the swiss ones do show any sign of strong brachicephaly? This is an aspect that frequently comes out in the BB talks.

That's a good question. I don't know the answer, and I don't recall anything in Furtwängler et al about it, but I'll go back and check.

Update: I just did a quick check of Furtwängler et al for "brachy" (to pick up brachycranial, brachycephaly, etc.), "skull", and even "round", but got nothing.

Silesian
01-24-2021, 06:32 PM
I was wondering about the R1b in Corded Ware. We did not get many information on the issue linked to the physical aspect of these folks. For example the swiss ones do show any sign of strong brachicephaly? This is an aspect that frequently comes out in the BB talks.

I really like rms2 the layout information- colour R1b-L51 tables. I really would like to know the possible vector/s that R1b-L51+ and major clan downstream snp's (p310?) etc...took as they expanded across Europe. Especially R1b-U106(my maternal side) I'm totally clueless, on that part of my family.

rms2
01-24-2021, 06:41 PM
I really like rms2 the layout information- colour R1b-L51 tables. I really would like to know the possible vector/s that R1b-L51+ and major clan downstream snp's (p310?) etc...took as they expanded across Europe. Especially R1b-U106(my maternal side) I'm totally clueless, on that part of my family.

My guess, as I mentioned before, is Yamnaya north from the steppe up the Prut/Dniester/Bug valleys, where they hung a left around the north side of the Carpathians from NW Ukraine into SE Poland/E Slovakia.

There they transformed from Yamnaya into incipient Corded Ware via the CWC-X horizon. Probably R1a-M417 was involved in the same movement but as separate tribes.

Hopefully posting this map again won't aggravate too many people.

42829

Silesian
01-24-2021, 06:59 PM
My guess, as I mentioned before, is Yamnaya north from the steppe up the Prut/Dniester/Bug valleys, where they hung a left around the north side of the Carpathians from NW Ukraine into SE Poland/E Slovakia.

There they transformed from Yamnaya into incipient Corded Ware via the CWC-X horizon. Probably R1a-M417 was involved in the same movement but as separate tribes.

Hopefully posting this map again won't aggravate too many people.

42829

Sorry I really need to study your tables more, L51 and L52 p310 and p312 were the R1b clans that came up Prut/Dniester/Bug ?

rms2
01-24-2021, 07:07 PM
Sorry I really need to study your tables more, L51 and L52 p310 and p312 were the R1b clans that came up Prut/Dniester/Bug ?

I'm not sure P312 was in existence yet, and of course I'm only guessing as to the exact route.

But L51 and Yamnaya DNA got into Corded Ware somehow.

rms2
01-24-2021, 07:22 PM
I'm not sure P312 was in existence yet, and of course I'm only guessing as to the exact route.

But L51 and Yamnaya DNA got into Corded Ware somehow.

Oh, and if you read the little excerpt from Linderholm et al about the CWC-X horizon and the burials at Hubinek in Małopolska, Poland, on that map, you'll see there is some good reason for thinking the Dniester Valley-to-SE Poland route was the correct one for the Yamnaya impact on the formation of Corded Ware anyway.

uintah106
01-24-2021, 07:45 PM
I really like rms2 the layout information- colour R1b-L51 tables. I really would like to know the possible vector/s that R1b-L51+ and major clan downstream snp's (p310?) etc...took as they expanded across Europe. Especially R1b-U106(my maternal side) I'm totally clueless, on that part of my family.
The Starting point of R-U106 remains obscure so far where it expanded from exactly. I'm still hoping it shows up in SGC Denmark. It is in Battle axe(Rise98) but that is an outlier. Z381 is in Unetice.

TigerMW
01-24-2021, 08:08 PM
Jean Manco's old Ancient Eurasian DNA site, and it says RISE550 was found by Sergey Malyshev to be Z8129/Y12537 (equivalent to Z2103).
I've been trying to contact Sergey. Is he still doing BAM file analysis?

rms2
01-24-2021, 08:09 PM
I've been trying to contact Sergey. Is he still doing BAM file analysis?

I'm not sure. I haven't heard anything of or from him in a while now.

uintah106
01-24-2021, 08:33 PM
Why would we think Jutland SGC was not mostly V1636? The same male replacement would apply.

rms2
01-24-2021, 08:38 PM
Why would we think Jutland SGC was not mostly V1636? The same male replacement would apply.

Haven't heard any rumors about V1636 in SGC, but the rumors have been flying for the last year and a half about L51 in SGC in a big way.

It doesn't seem that V1636 was very successful in Europe one way or the other, despite that recent find in Egfjord (2021), and that one died as a child. Too much of that dying as a child stuff doesn't help the success of a Y-DNA haplogroup.

MitchellSince1893
01-24-2021, 09:26 PM
FWIW, Ian McDonald did some extensive dating analysis for U106 and P312 a couple of years back.
He had
P312 Best guess...was born around 3079 BC,
95% confidence interval i.e. The real date is likely to be in the range of 3764 BC — 2524 BC.
We know it's got to be earlier than 2524 BC due to dating of RISE563 (U152) at 2542 BC as there is 3-4 mutations between P312 and U152.

U106 was dated similarly

If Ian's best guess is accurate, then it means U106 and P312 were born just prior to Nordqvist & Heyd's estimated Corded Ware formation (3000-2900 BC).

By comparison, Yfull has P312 95% CI range at 3350 -2350 BC midpoint 2850 BC. I tend to believe Yfull dates are often too young.

uintah106
01-24-2021, 09:27 PM
Haven't heard any rumors about V1636 in SGC, but the rumors have been flying for the last year and a half about L51 in SGC in a big way.

It doesn't seem that V1636 was very successful in Europe one way or the other, despite that recent find in Egfjord (2021), and that one died as a child. Too much of that dying as a child stuff doesn't help the success of a Y-DNA haplogroup.I hope these scientists remain scientist.

rms2
01-24-2021, 09:34 PM
FWIW, Ian McDonald did some extensive dating analysis for U106 and P312 a couple of years back.
He had
P312 Best guess...was born around 3079 BC,
95% confidence interval i.e. The real date is likely to be in the range of 3764 BC — 2524 BC.
We know it's got to be earlier than 2524 BC due to dating of RISE563 (U152) at 2542 BC as there is 3-4 mutations between P312 and U152.

U106 was dated similarly

If Ian's best guess is accurate, then it means U106 and P312 were born just prior to Nordqvist & Heyd's estimated Corded Ware formation (3000-2900 BC).

By comparison, Yfull has P312 95% CI range at 3350 -2350 BC

Time will tell, I guess.

Silesian
01-24-2021, 10:06 PM
Time will tell, I guess.

R1b, with DYS393= 12

Even almost 15 years ago some were pretty accurate for using str's(posted by user --R1b-FGC36981 :)). Here is a classic, since R1b-Z2103 have str 393-12, time just flies by.....

Who knew?


6 November 2006, 06:28 PM
It's very unlikely that any "Aurignacians" were R1b, since R1b is more than likely less than 10,000 years old. The calculation of the ages of some of the major y-haplogroups can be seen here.

In order to arrive at the outlandish ages sometimes given for some of the younger y-haplogroups like R1b, a "fudge factor" (and that is exactly what it is called) of 3 or more is employed.

The analysis of 37-marker haplotypes at the link I posted above shows what the ages of the haplogroups are without such an enormous fudge factor, ages based simply on known mutation rates.

It is also a fact that R1b haplotype variance increases as one moves east into Western and Central Asia. Greater haplotype variance is a sign of greater age. What that means is that R1b originated in Western or Central Asia between 7,000 and 8,000 years ago. That makes sense not only because the oldest R1b haplotypes are found there, but also because those haplogroups immediately ancestral to R1b - P, R, R1 - are sometimes found in Central Asia and rarely found in Europe.

Here is an article that, while it is not specifically about R1b, has some interesting R1b distribution and variance maps. Check out map D on p. 9 of the pdf version. It shows clearly the increasing variance of R1b haplotypes as one moves east into Asia from Europe. Variance was determined based on STR markers.

Dewsloth
01-24-2021, 10:59 PM
R1b, with DYS393= 12

Even almost 20 years ago some were pretty accurate for using str's(posted by user --R1b-FGC36981 :)). Here is a classic, since R1b-Z2103 have str 393-12, time just flies by.....

Who knew?

My own variant of DF19 has DYS393=12; it causes all sorts of chaos and mismatching. I hate STRs :lol:

jdean
01-25-2021, 12:11 AM
My own variant of DF19 has DYS393=12; it causes all sorts of chaos and mismatching. I hate STRs :lol:

Try having a haplotype that's almost the spit of Scots Modal for the first 25 loci and still looks quite convincing at 37 : )

rms2
01-25-2021, 12:47 AM
Try having a haplotype that's almost the spit of Scots Modal for the first 25 loci and still looks quite convincing at 37 : )

I have Oppenheimer's "Frisian Modal Haplotype". Even Ken Nordtvedt and Jim Wilson expected me to be U106+, which is why Jim Wilson retested my sample when I came up S21- on Ethnoancestry's old S Series test.

It's not until one gets to 67 markers, when my 492=12 shows up, that I start to look un-Frisian and U106- (S21-).

TigerMW
01-25-2021, 01:47 AM
My own variant of DF19 has DYS393=12; it causes all sorts of chaos and mismatching. I hate STRs :lol:

It happens more often than we think. We even have quite a few DYS393=11 guys who aren't Z2103.

Garimund
01-25-2021, 02:53 AM
Sounds kind of shaky all the way around.

Hopefully I'll get an answer from Reich's lab.

I’d be interested to hear what he tells you in regards to this sample, whether the likelihood of this being confirmed is far-fetched or not.

TigerMW
01-25-2021, 03:14 AM
....
The ubiquitous beakers were apparently an important part of some sort of drinking ritual, perhaps religious, which is why they were used as grave goods, especially in male burials.

I suppose that is a part of the significance of the bell shaped pottery, although the pots were probably made by women.

We have to be on guard against infatuations. I at one time or another thought fancifully of connections to ancient Irish poems and all things Gaelic, the Norman enigma, Spanish/Iberian swarthy Welsh, etc., etc. I also include the "Bell Beaker phenomenon" now. The scope of the Bell Beakers probably needs to be truncated on the front-end (Iberia) or completely renamed on the back-end (steppes/P312). They are different people, probably with different languages and more differences than can be seen in artifacts. It's still quite a phenomenon on the back-end with the take over of both the British Isles and Iberia.

The emotions are something I hope scientists try to set aside. This is the last line of this editorial article but I'm sure it is heartfelt among some portion of the researchers.

"One can argue about causes and effects, resilience and regional variability, but not without studying possible correlations and the possible ways in which the natural world could affect subsistence, demography and ultimately culture during the second half of the 3rd millennium BC: our beloved Bell Beaker phenomenon."

"Editorial: Think global, act local! The Archéologie et Gobelets workshop in Kiel and some future perspectives for research into the 3rd millennium BC", Jos Kleigne (2018)
https://www.academia.edu/38147291/Editorial_Think_Global_Act_Local_The_Arch%C3%A9olo gie_et_Gobelets_workshop_in_Kiel_and_some_future_p erspectives_for_research_into_the_3rd_millennium_B C?email_work_card=thumbnail

It's not a good idea to love a scientific hypothesis too much.

rms2
01-25-2021, 01:04 PM
I’d be interested to hear what he tells you in regards to this sample, whether the likelihood of this being confirmed is far-fetched or not.

Well, here you go! I got an answer from the Reich Lab, specifically from Iosif Lazaridis himself.

It turns out RISE550 has been called R1b-L51 not based on L617 but on PF6535 (https://www.genetichomeland.com/welcome/dnapedigree.asp?RecordID=2936), which is coincident with L51.

I guess it's okay to quote Dr. Lazaridis:



The call is based on one derived read for R-L51+: PF6535(5465148G>A:A) which is at the 4th base from the end of the read.
I estimate an overall rate of ~1% for this deamination in all our data, but of course whether this happens is sample-specific and read position-specific.

So, at present I classify this as an intriguing possibility but not as a clear-cut case of finding R-L51 in Yamnaya which of course would be monumental.


Not bad news. Wish it were better, but it's not bad. RISE550 is derived, after all, for PF6535.

Silesian
01-25-2021, 02:15 PM
Well, here you go! I got an answer from the Reich Lab, specifically from Iosif Lazaridis himself.

It turns out RISE550 has been called R1b-L51 not based on L617 but on PF6535 (https://www.genetichomeland.com/welcome/dnapedigree.asp?RecordID=2936), which is coincident with L51.

I guess it's okay to quote Dr. Lazaridis:



Not bad news. Wish it were better, but it's not bad. RISE550 is derived, after all, for PF6535.

Makes you wonder about a possible connection between Rise 550 and well sampled Yamnaya I0443( 3300-2700)?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-A3-AmrW_qF4/VaYdBblsrsI/AAAAAAAAAKI/Gd1ORzTsgw8/s1600/R1b-tree-Sergey-Malyshev.jpg[/QUOTE]

I0443
https://amtdb.org/records/I0443 Z2108-KMS-75+

I0444
https://amtdb.org/records/I0444

rms2
01-25-2021, 02:21 PM
Yes, and I0443 is still just listed as R1b-L23 (R1b1a1b1) in the anno file at the new Reich site.

razyn
01-25-2021, 03:42 PM
In the recent table published by the Reich Lab RISE550 is labelled R1b1a1b1a (L51), can't help wonder if that's a typo but it is a shotgun result.

3335-2634 calBCE (4312±94 BP, IGAN-2880)
Russia_Kalmykia_EBA_Yamnaya.SG
Peshany V Russia
lat, long 46.556,43.676 (https://www.google.com/maps/place/46°33'21.6"N+43°40'33.6"E/@46.556,43.673806,7z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d46.556!4d43.676)

I happened to click on the coordinates jdean posted for this place, that goes to a Google map on which one may zoom in pretty closely (with the satellite image, also). The place name is Remontnoye, more or less Repairville... which put me in mind of the fictional town of Radiator Springs, in the Disney movie "Cars." (Which, in turn, is loosely based on Tucumcari, NM, USA. A thirsty sort of place, where one's radiator typically is under some threat.) This would not have been the case in 3000 BCE, but then they weren't speaking Russian or living in towns, either. I just think that's a good place name.

etrusco
01-25-2021, 03:54 PM
Makes you wonder about a possible connection between Rise 550 and well sampled Yamnaya I0443( 3300-2700)?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-A3-AmrW_qF4/VaYdBblsrsI/AAAAAAAAAKI/Gd1ORzTsgw8/s1600/R1b-tree-Sergey-Malyshev.jpg

I0443
https://amtdb.org/records/I0443 Z2108-KMS-75+

I0444
https://amtdb.org/records/I0444[/QUOTE]

A clarification about P297. The 13300 ybp does indicate the likely date of birth of R1bP297? Is it really that young?

Silesian
01-25-2021, 04:00 PM
Yes, and I0443 is still just listed as R1b-L23 (R1b1a1b1) in the anno file at the new Reich site.
R1b-L51 in South East Poland (PCW070) are about 1000+/- younger than Rise 550, I0443, and Afanasievo L51. Do you think it would be worth while to compare all these kurgan burial samples on a autosomal level?
https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-L51/

Silesian
01-25-2021, 04:02 PM
I0443
https://amtdb.org/records/I0443 Z2108-KMS-75+

I0444
https://amtdb.org/records/I0444
A clarification about P297. The 13300 ybp does indicate the likely date of birth of R1bP297? Is it really that young?



Sergey's work; I have not heard anything from him for quite a while.

parasar
01-25-2021, 04:21 PM
Sergey's work; I have not heard anything from him for quite a while.
Recalling:

Update:

RISE1. Corded Ware. R1b. This sample is very low coverage and uncertain below R, it seems from discussion Genetiker, Richard Rocca and JDean.
RISE47. Nordic Bronze Age. R1b. R1b1a2* (M520/PF6410), according to Genetiker and VinceT.
RISE98. Swedish Battle Axe. R1b. R1b1a2a1a1 (U106) say Genetiker, Felix, Greg Magoon and Vince T.
RISE276. Nordic Bronze Age. R1b. R1b1a2a (Genetiker) - I await confirmation.
RISE397. Late Bronze Age Armenia. R1b. R1b>M269>L23>Z2103>Z2106>CTS7763>Y:18249219(A/C) Finding from Smal for which you need his tree: http://www.kumbarov.com/ht35/R1b1a2_ht35_project_tree_16_05_25_2015.pdf
RISE413. Middle Bronze Age Armenia. R1b. R1b1a2 (Genetiker). I await confirmation.
RISE524. Mezhovskaya. R1b. R1b1a2 (PF6494) (Genetiker). I await confirmation.
RISE546. Yamnaya. R1b. R1b1a2 (PF6482/YSC0000203) (Genetiker). I await confirmation.
RISE547. Yamnaya. R1b. R1b1a2a2 (CTS9416) (Genetiker). Smal confirmed and added > Z2106+ . The latter is not on ISOGG - see YFull.
RISE548. Yamnaya. R1b. R1b1a2a2 (Z2105) (Genetiker). Smal confirmed and added downstream SNPs not on ISOGG. See his tree: http://www.kumbarov.com/ht35/R1b1a2_ht35_project_tree_16_05_25_2015.pdf
RISE550. Yamnaya. R1b. R1b1a2 (Genetiker and Felix). Smal confirmed and added downstream SNPs equiv R-Z2103 on Y-Full = R1b1a2a2.
RISE555. Early Bronze Age Stalingrad Quarry. R1b. R1b1a2a2 (CTS7340/Z2107) (Genetiker). Smal confirmed and added downstream SNP > Z2106+.
RISE560. Bell Beaker Germany. R1b. R1b1a2a1a2-M12124(xM12050) = P312/S116 (Genetiker). I await confirmation.
RISE563. Bell Beaker Germany. R1b. R1b1a2a1a2b (U152), say Genetiker, Alex Williamson and Richard Rocca.
RISE564. Bell Beaker Germany. R1b. R1b1a2a1 (L51/M412/PF6536/S167) says Genetiker. I await confirmation.
RISE566. Bell Beaker Czech Republic. R1b. R1b1a2a1a (P310/PF6546/S129) says Genetiker. I await confirmation.

rms2
01-25-2021, 04:25 PM
R1b-L51 in South East Poland (PCW070) are about 1000+/- younger than Rise 550, I0443, and Afanasievo L51. Do you think it would be worth while to compare all these kurgan burial samples on a autosomal level?
https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-L51/

Sure, it would be useful.

Remember, these are ancient samples, and they're not all L51*. Most are actually P310 (L52), and that represents the best that could be squeezed out of their Y chromosomes.

R1b-L51 is just kind of the "something-other-than-Z2103" rubric they are currently classed under.

Hope that makes some kind of sense.

rms2
01-25-2021, 04:32 PM
Recalling:

Evidently the SNPs Sergey used to call RISE550 for Z2103, Z8129/Y12537, are of dubious reliability.

As you no doubt saw, Dr. Lazaridis said RISE550 is derived for PF6535 (L51), which is pretty reliable (~1% deamination rate).

It would be nice if they could re-sequence RISE550 to try and resolve it one way or the other.

Silesian
01-25-2021, 04:34 PM
Parasar, what's your take on the path on a Yamnaya L51+ possible path to Afanasievo, and climate.
Looks pretty dangerous. I was checking Karagash(Yamnaya), on the way to the Eastern destinations. One day the weather in that region is plus 10c the next day you get hit with a polar vortex minus -50c. Do you think that could have a effect of the wagon wheels freezing?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkUL6x0lHT4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkUL6x0lHT4

MitchellSince1893
01-25-2021, 05:56 PM
Well, here you go! I got an answer from the Reich Lab, specifically from Iosif Lazaridis himself...Not bad news. Wish it were better, but it's not bad. RISE550 is derived, after all, for PF6535.
Thanks for emailing him. Yeah I agree, it’s hard to get real excited about this with only 1 read.

Hoppo
01-25-2021, 06:07 PM
I don't want to sound rude, but where the heck are you getting the erroneous idea that I2416 looked autosomally like an Iberian Neolithic?

Did you not read the posts in which I quoted Olalde et al to show that I2416 had steppe DNA and thus was NOTHING LIKE AN IBERIAN NEOLITHIC?

Did you miss the screenshot I posted of Figure S2 from the Olalde et al Supplementary Info that showed where I2416 stood relative to not only Iberian Neolithic farmers (who were way to the right on the graphic, in Anatolia_N territory) but to two of the Iberian Beaker groups (BUR2 and MAD2) who, like I2416, had steppe DNA and also were not like Neolithic Iberians?

I did not say Single Grave Corded Ware is not Corded Ware. I said Beaker is not Corded Ware. It was derived from Single Grave Corded Ware, but it represents a later development. Similarly, Corded Ware is not Yamnaya, even though it was derived from Yamnaya.

You must also have missed the PCA graphic from Eurogenes I posted showing that I2417, another of the Boscombe Bowmen, was autosomally pretty much exactly like Corded Ware.

I'm beginning to wonder what you're driving at, but it's starting to sound familiar.
Sorry for misunderstanding. I'm trying to get to where British DF13 comes from, because I've just found this is my own result. I understood it was Bell Beaker via Corded Ware, Single Grave or other. Maybe we still don't know, and it might have come directly from Yamnaya on the Steppe?
In Olaide's chart, the Bowman I2416 had 3% CHG green and 43% blue, the Iberia Neolithic I0406 2% CHG green and 58% blue, the average Corded Ware 20% green and 9% blue. The fairly low level of Steppe DNA in I2416 and Iberia Neolithic looks similar.
As I've now found I2416 is probably DF27, I'm more interested in the other Bowman who is L21, but on the chart position 16 he does not look Corded Ware either. He has twice as much of the purple element as the green CHG, but Corded Ware has almost no purple and lots of CHG. The only other samples with more purple than green are I0211 and I0061 from Mesolithic Karelia. But later British Beaker samples do resemble Corded Ware.
So my question is just is this right? I don't want to conclude anything if the data is not clear enough for us to tell yet.

rms2
01-25-2021, 06:14 PM
Thanks for emailing him. Yeah I agree, it’s hard to get real excited about this with only 1 read.

True, but apparently it's fairly reliable, and it beats what we had from RISE550 before.

rms2
01-25-2021, 06:43 PM
Sorry for misunderstanding. I'm trying to get to where British DF13 comes from, because I've just found this is my own result. I understood it was Bell Beaker via Corded Ware, Single Grave or other. Maybe we still don't know, and it might have come directly from Yamnaya on the Steppe?
In Olaide's chart, the Bowman I2416 had 3% CHG green and 43% blue, the Iberia Neolithic I0406 2% CHG green and 58% blue, the average Corded Ware 20% green and 9% blue. The fairly low level of Steppe DNA in I2416 and Iberia Neolithic looks similar.

No, it does not. Not in the least. You're fixated on CHG and on squeezing it out of a graphic that is too tough to read for such exacting purposes, even after magnifying it. Forget that, and focus on the actual steppe DNA, which is not all CHG or Iran_N anyway.

Look at Fig. S2 in the Olalde Supplementary Info. I posted a screenshot of the relevant part of it, suitably labeled for your convenience. It clearly shows the Iberian Neolithic farmers (with no steppe DNA) well to the right, in Anatolia_N territory. I2416 and the two Iberian Beaker groups (BUR2 and MAD2), all of whom had steppe DNA, are well to the left of the Iberian Neolithic farmers, shifted toward the Steppe_EBA end of the graphic. Why? Because I2416 and those Iberian Beaker groups all had steppe DNA, unlike the Iberian Neolithic farmers.

Here is that screenshot again.

42856



As I've now found I2416 is probably DF27, I'm more interested in the other Bowman who is L21, but on the chart position 16 he does not look Corded Ware either. He has twice as much of the purple element as the green CHG, but Corded Ware has almost no purple and lots of CHG. The only other samples with more purple than green are I0211 and I0061 from Mesolithic Karelia. But later British Beaker samples do resemble Corded Ware.
So my question is just is this right? I don't want to conclude anything if the data is not clear enough for us to tell yet.

I2417 is autosomally just like Corded Ware, which can be seen from the graphic from the Eurogenes Blog, which I will post yet again (I put the red-bordered box around I2417 to make his position stand out).

42857

Again, I think you are trying to squeeze too much detail out of that previous graphic, which cannot be seen clearly enough for that purpose, even after magnifying it.

Besides that, you are making it sound as if I2416 had no steppe DNA at all, which is clearly not true.

Even if he did not have steppe DNA (but he does), look at the overwhelming preponderance of the evidence from Olalde et al and all the other relevant ancient DNA papers of the last several years:

* No R1b-M269 (not to mention R1b-L51) in Europe west of the steppe before roughly the start of the 3rd millennium BC;

* No steppe DNA in Europe west of the steppe before roughly the start of the 3rd millennium BC.

Certainly we see that in Britain, as part of Europe west of the steppe, which also experienced a huge population replacement after about 2400 BC, with the arrival of the Beaker people, steppe DNA, and R1b-L51 (mostly P312 and especially L21).

Hoppo
01-25-2021, 07:32 PM
No, it does not. Not in the least. You're fixated on CHG and on squeezing it out of a graphic that is too tough to read for such exacting purposes, even after magnifying it. Forget that, and focus on the actual steppe DNA, which is not all CHG or Iran_N anyway.

Look at Fig. S2 in the Olalde Supplementary Info. I posted a screenshot of the relevant part of it, suitably labeled for your convenience. It clearly shows the Iberian Neolithic farmers (with no steppe DNA) well to the right, in Anatolia_N territory. I2416 and the two Iberian Beaker groups (BUR2 and MAD2), all of whom had steppe DNA, are well to the left of the Iberian Neolithic farmers, shifted toward the Steppe_EBA end of the graphic. Why? Because I2416 and those Iberian Beaker groups all had steppe DNA, unlike the Iberian Neolithic farmers.

Here is that screenshot again.

42856



I2417 is autosomally just like Corded Ware, which can be seen from the graphic from the Eurogenes Blog, which I will post yet again (I put the red-bordered box around I2417 to make his position stand out).

42857

Again, I think you are trying to squeeze too much detail out of that previous graphic, which cannot be seen clearly enough for that purpose, even after magnifying it.

Besides that, you are making it sound as if I2416 had no steppe DNA at all, which is clearly not true.

Even if he did not have steppe DNA (but he does), look at the overwhelming preponderance of the evidence from Olalde et al and all the other relevant ancient DNA papers of the last several years:

* No R1b-M269 (not to mention R1b-L51) in Europe west of the steppe before roughly the start of the 3rd millennium BC;

* No steppe DNA in Europe west of the steppe before roughly the start of the 3rd millennium BC.

Certainly we see that in Britain, as part of Europe west of the steppe, which also experienced a huge population replacement after about 2400 BC, with the arrival of the Beaker people, steppe DNA, and R1b-L51 (mostly P312 and especially L21).
Thanks for all your information, but I don't think it's enough to convince me. Whatever it is called, 2% CHG in Iberia Neolithic looks like 3% CHG in the Boscombe Bowman, and 43% blue element in Iberia Neolithic looks pretty similar to the 58% in the Boscombe Bowman. If Steppe DNA only added an extra 1% of CHG, it's a very weak Steppe signature.
As for the L21 Bowman, where did all his purple element come from if not Karelia/North East Baltic? Corded Ware has virtually none of it.
I'm sure there's something in all this charted data, but it's too inconsistent for me to take anything from it. I think I'll wait to see if anything more concrete is discovered.

rms2
01-25-2021, 08:13 PM
Thanks for all your information, but I don't think it's enough to convince me. Whatever it is called, 2% CHG in Iberia Neolithic looks like 3% CHG in the Boscombe Bowman, and 43% blue element in Iberia Neolithic looks pretty similar to the 58% in the Boscombe Bowman. If Steppe DNA only added an extra 1% of CHG, it's a very weak Steppe signature.
As for the L21 Bowman, where did all his purple element come from if not Karelia/North East Baltic? Corded Ware has virtually none of it.
I'm sure there's something in all this charted data, but it's too inconsistent for me to take anything from it. I think I'll wait to see if anything more concrete is discovered.

I'm not sure what the difficulty is, but it sounds as if you are attempting to erect a molehill that suits your purpose to oppose to the mountain of contrary evidence.

To each his own.

TigerMW
01-25-2021, 08:14 PM
Evidently the SNPs Sergey used to call RISE550 for Z2103, Z8129/Y12537, are of dubious reliability.

As you no doubt saw, Dr. Lazaridis said RISE550 is derived for PF6535 (L51), which is pretty reliable (~1% deamination rate).

It would be nice if they could re-sequence RISE550 to try and resolve it one way or the other.

FTDNA has also analyzed RISE550. There are enough coverage problems they would not alter the tree for sure based on this individual.
They call him at R-M269 because he has no coverage for the 3 R-L23 SNPs and the whole thing is marginal.
They do see the 2x PF6535 but that is G>A which is problematic in ancient DNA.
There actually is one L51- read but that is iffy too so they don't believe that either.
They have no coverage for the R-Z2103 or R-M12149 blocks SNPs except for 1x coverage on M12145 (C>T)
If they had to bet either way they would vote for R-Z2103.

It is what it is.

rms2
01-25-2021, 08:17 PM
PF6535 can't be too problematic, since Lazaridis himself said there is a ~1% deamination rate.

But I agree it's undoubtedly just not the best of samples.

TigerMW
01-25-2021, 08:18 PM
PF6535 can't be too problematic, since Lazaridis himself said there is a ~1% deamination rate.

But I agree it's undoubtedly just not the best of samples.

I can't argue the biology and chemistry but I am told generally "G>A substitutions are a common problem in ancient DNA".

rms2
01-25-2021, 08:22 PM
I can't argue the biology and chemistry but I am told generally "G>A substitutions are a common problem in ancient DNA".

I can't either. I'm just going on what Dr. Lazaridis wrote.

He said the PF6535 call is "intriguing" but it doesn't make RISE550 a clear-cut L51.

Too bad, but those clear-cut reads for better samples will come.

Silesian
01-25-2021, 08:30 PM
I can't either. I'm just going on what Dr. Lazaridis wrote.

He said the PF6535 call is "intriguing" but it doesn't make RISE550 a clear-cut L51.

Too bad, but those clear-cut reads for better samples will come.

I0443-L23? and Rise 550 ? Thanks. That's just 2 examples public since 2015, how many more samples are waiting out there pre-published to be gleaned for links to L51 10s -100s?

TigerMW
01-25-2021, 09:03 PM
I can't either. I'm just going on what Dr. Lazaridis wrote.

He said the PF6535 call is "intriguing" but it doesn't make RISE550 a clear-cut L51.

Too bad, but those clear-cut reads for better samples will come.

This is a good example of where expert opinions vary.

Additional comments....

FTDNA is not confident of any of these calls for RISE550 but if they had to rank the following SNP calls from some confidence to less they would go in this order:

M12145+
L51-
PF6535+

All three are iffy but they'd put the PF6535+ on the bottom.

rms2
01-25-2021, 09:08 PM
Lazaridis did not make PF6535 sound especially iffy. Sounded like he said it is roughly 99% reliable, but it does not really matter, since it was only a single read among a set of dueling reads.

It's pretty clear that what is really iffy is the quality of the sample itself.

TigerMW
01-25-2021, 10:26 PM
Lazaridis did not make PF6535 sound especially iffy. Sounded like he said it is roughly 99% reliable, but it does not really matter, since it was only a single read among a set of dueling reads.

It's pretty clear that what is really iffy is the quality of the sample itself.
This is as far in depth as I'll go, but so it is clear to everyone following.

2X coverage is not good.
G>A allele type mutations are not good for ancient DNA
1X L51- result (not called though) is not helpful
No supporting coverage on any of the three directly upstream R-L23 SNPs is not helpful either

... I think we have to conclude this individual's results are uncertain.

Silesian
01-26-2021, 12:44 AM
Lazaridis did not make PF6535 sound especially iffy. Sounded like he said it is roughly 99% reliable, but it does not really matter, since it was only a single read among a set of dueling reads.

It's pretty clear that what is really iffy is the quality of the sample itself.

If it does turn out P-6535 that would be two results negative Z2103/5. I0443 as I understand is pretty good coverage negative z2103/5. Worth keeping an open mind with future consideration. Exciting.

rms2
01-26-2021, 01:01 AM
This is as far in depth as I'll go, but so it is clear to everyone following.

2X coverage is not good.
G>A allele type mutations are not good for ancient DNA
1X L51- result (not called though) is not helpful
No supporting coverage on any of the three directly upstream R-L23 SNPs is not helpful either

...

Good. Now, after I say once again that Lazaridis said PF6535 has a ~1% deamination rate (which means it's about 99% reliable), we will have repeated ourselves enough.

I think we agree RISE550 isn't a very good sample and that Lazaridis said PF6535 is an "intriguing possibility" but that RISE550 isn't a clear-cut L51.

But maybe you'd like to say one more time you don't think it's any good, so that it is clear to everyone following.



I think we have to conclude this individual's results are uncertain.

No kidding. That's why RISE550 should be re-sequenced, if anything.

rms2
01-26-2021, 01:24 AM
If it does turn out P-6535 that would be two results negative Z2103/5. I0443 as I understand is pretty good coverage negative z2103/5. Worth keeping an open mind with future consideration. Exciting.

I like the really obvious stuff.

Quibbling about dodgy ancient samples full of holes isn't worth the calories expended doing it.

But thanks for the sentiment.

Silesian
01-26-2021, 01:49 AM
I like the really obvious stuff.

Quibbling about dodgy ancient samples full of holes isn't worth the calories expended doing it.

But thanks for the sentiment.

For any Yamnaya samples to be negative z2103 or z2105 imo is a pretty big deal. A lot of Yamnaya are z2108/9 downstream branches. If true I0443 is negative for z2103/5 it is one step closer to trying to source L23* the ancestor of both. Let's see all these results in autosomal, like the Polish Corded Ware L51 to see any overlap.

TigerMW
01-26-2021, 03:48 AM
Let's try a different approach.

I think, and have thought for about a decade, that R1b-P312 came into Western Europe from the northern side, north-central Europe, rather than up the Danube River valley or through the Mediterranean. I have wavered back and forth on this and do NOT know the ancestor.

However, despite being included towards a northern route, let me argue from a Mediterranean Sea route perspective. Let's see if it can be disproven which would throw the L51 via Corded Ware out the door.

As a starting point (#1), I offer that P312 laden Bell Beaker people must have been good sea navigators. They made it all over the place very quickly.

"Recognizing that the regions where Beakers have been most frequently found are connected by seas and rivers, it may have been the case that in the period between 2500 and 1500 cal BC, navigators controlled the directional nature of the travel and exchange. Their power was based on a combination of technical skills, such as expertise in environmental navigation and possibly of shipbuilding, and ritual skills. These skills may well have been passed down through successive generations of navigators."

"Exploring agency behind the Beaker phenomenon. The navigator’s tale", by Robert Van de Noort

I don't have the quote, but J.P. Mallory was also emphatic that the Bell Beakers were seaworthy with their impacts as far as Sardinia.

This doesn't sound like Corded Ware plains people. I'm leaving this aside for the sake of this argument, but I think a Corded Ware/Single Grave merger/transformation with Lower Rhine/North Sea Neolithic people may be an alternative way for L151/Steppes men to acquire seafaring skills.

Generalissimo
01-26-2021, 04:00 AM
Let's try a different approach.

I think, and have thought for about a decade, that R1b-P312 came into Western Europe from the northern side, north-central Europe, rather than up the Danube River valley or through the Mediterranean. I have wavered back and forth on this and do NOT know the ancestor.

However, despite being included towards a northern route, let me argue from a Mediterranean Sea route perspective. Let's see if it can be disproven which would throw the L51 via Corded Ware out the door.

As a starting point (#1), I offer that P312 laden Bell Beaker people must have been good sea navigators. They made it all over the place very quickly.

"Recognizing that the regions where Beakers have been most frequently found are connected by seas and rivers, it may have been the case that in the period between 2500 and 1500 cal BC, navigators controlled the directional nature of the travel and exchange. Their power was based on a combination of technical skills, such as expertise in environmental navigation and possibly of shipbuilding, and ritual skills. These skills may well have been passed down through successive generations of navigators."

"Exploring agency behind the Beaker phenomenon. The navigator’s tale", by Robert Van de Noort

I don't have the quote, but J.P. Mallory was also emphatic that the Bell Beakers were seaworthy with their impacts as far as Sardinia.

This doesn't sound like Corded Ware plains people. I'm leaving this aside for the sake of this argument, but I think a Corded Ware/Single Grave merger/transformation with Lower Rhine/North Sea Neolithic people may be an alternative way for L151/Steppes men to acquire seafaring skills.

I'm pretty sure that Battle-Axe (Corded Ware) people could sail very well.

MitchellSince1893
01-26-2021, 04:20 AM
...let me argue from a Mediterranean Sea route perspective. Let's see if it can be disproven which would throw the L51 via Corded Ware out the door.
Center of gravity for many of the smaller P312 subclades, and L51 subclade PF7589 is along the south Baltic coast. I would more inclined to go with River skills that expand into coastal sea skills once they get to the Baltic and North Seas. But like I said in a previous post: If a trade network existed along their routes, they didn't need to have strong mariner skills, they just had to barter with or coerce the locals to get them across said body of water. e.g. Dothraki crossing the Narrow Sea.

Amber trade routes from the Baltic in this era had to cross several bodies of water

Baltic Amber beads were found in 3400-2400 BC pharaoh tombs in Tethys pyramid. German archaeologist Heinrich Schliemann who in 1871-1890 excavated Troy in addition to other artefacts found Amber beads. Scientists established that they were made from Amber that had been brought from the Baltic Coast in 3000 BC.
https://sep.yimg.com/ay/yhst-10406508139399/amber-trade-routes-1.gif

If they went along the Med or along the Danube for that matter, they didn't leave much of a foot print that's detectable today or in ancient dna for that matter. While ancient P312 dna is quite common North of the Alps and Danube, it's not much of a factor in the ancient or present day Balkan dna.

PS: That Amber route along the Dniester and Weichsel (aka Vistula) rivers, is nicely placed to get Yamnaya dna into the Corded Ware as shown in this map link below i.e. "Transformation of Yamnaya to Corded Wares c. 3000-2900 BC" Zone in SE Poland.
https://anthrogenica.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=41788&d=1608157925

Finn
01-26-2021, 08:05 AM
This doesn't sound like Corded Ware plains people. I'm leaving this aside for the sake of this argument, but I think a Corded Ware/Single Grave merger/transformation with Lower Rhine/North Sea Neolithic people may be an alternative way for L151/Steppes men to acquire seafaring skills.

The mixture Steppe Corded Ware/Singel Grave with Neolithic Funnelebeaker looks right. They evolved into Bell Beakers, in the Dutch/NW Germanic area they were connected with the Rhine, Ems, Weser and specific the Veluvian Beakers were connected via the Ijssel and Vlie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vlie. The North Dutch/ Drenthe Beakers via the Hunze https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunze_(rivier) all those rivers ended in the North Sea!

TigerMW
01-26-2021, 02:17 PM
I'm pretty sure that Battle-Axe (Corded Ware) people could sail very well.
I would love to see information on this. Do you have a reference or two?
I found some information on log boats in the Neolithic in this general region. Archaeologists have found a 12 meter log boat but it was only 18 inches wide. I've canoed quite a bit and that would make me nervous on open seas. On the other hand, it wouldn't be to hard to rig pontoons and as long as you could swim and keep your wits about you while you flip a canoe back over you can keep going. You can't lose your oars.

TigerMW
01-26-2021, 02:27 PM
I'm not asking if we can argue that a northern origin for P312 (and its ancestry) outweighs a Mediterranean route. I think it does but that is just my opinion.

I'm asking "Let's see if it (Med route) can be disproven".

My pro-Mediterranean point #1 is that P312 laden Bell Beaker people must have been good sea navigators. They made it all over the place very quickly including to the Mediterranean.

Pro-Med point #2 is Irish legend:
"Goídel Glas is a Gaelic legendary figure and culture hero. According to an Irish and Scottish medieval tradition, Goídel Glas is the creator of the Goidelic languages and the eponymous ancestor of the Gaels. The tradition can be traced to the 11th-century Lebor Gabála Érenn"
"The narrative in the Lebor Gabála Érenn is a mythological account of the origin of the Gaels as the descendants of the Scythian prince Fénius Farsaid, one of seventy-two chieftains who built the Tower of Babel. Goídel Glas was the son of Nel (son of Fénius) and Scota (daughter of a Pharaoh of Egypt).[1] Goídel Glas is credited with the creation of Gaelic (proto-Irish language) from the original seventy-two languages that arose at the time of the confusion of tongues"

"Breogán (also spelt Breoghan, Bregon or Breachdan) is a character in the Lebor Gabála Érenn, a medieval Christian history of Ireland and the Irish (or Gaels). He is supposedly the son of Brath,[1] and is described as an ancestor of the Gaels. The Lebor Gabála purports to be an account of how the Gaels descend from Adam through the sons of Noah and how they came to Ireland."
"... one of their leaders, Breogán, founds a city called Brigantia and builds a great tower. From the top of the tower, his son Íth glimpses Ireland. The Gaels, including some of Breogán's sons, sail to Ireland from Brigantia and agree to divide it between them"

This outlines a potential Mediterranean route. The starting point is where Scythians are from, just north of the Black and Caspian Seas. A very seaworthy people could have come down through the straights of Bosporous towards Egypt and eventually moved on to Iberia and finally the British Isles.

I think the legend can be disproved from a time perspective by looking at the ages of the subclades and the supposed link to the Hebrew Exodus (and Goidelic) of Egypt.

However, I offer this point in a Brian Sykes-like (or Oppenheimer) manner. It may not be precise but oral traditions can point to some general ancient truths.

P.S. there are a lot of folks who want this to be true.

TigerMW
01-26-2021, 02:33 PM
BTW, I have heard there is more to come on the ancient DNA related to all of this, however, it is "complex". I doubt if that is new news except to me the Yamnaya>CWC>SGC>N/E BBC autosomal cline was fairly straightforward and simple. Perhaps there is more to it on the Y side. Don't know, may be overthinking it.

etrusco
01-26-2021, 03:08 PM
I'm not asking if we can argue that a northern origin for P312 (and its ancestry) outweighs a Mediterranean route. I think it does but that is just my opinion.

I'm asking "Let's see if it (Med route) can be disproven".

My pro-Mediterranean point #1 is that P312 laden Bell Beaker people must have been good sea navigators. They made it all over the place very quickly including to the Mediterranean.

Pro-Med point #2 is Irish legend:
"Goídel Glas is a Gaelic legendary figure and culture hero. According to an Irish and Scottish medieval tradition, Goídel Glas is the creator of the Goidelic languages and the eponymous ancestor of the Gaels. The tradition can be traced to the 11th-century Lebor Gabála Érenn"
"The narrative in the Lebor Gabála Érenn is a mythological account of the origin of the Gaels as the descendants of the Scythian prince Fénius Farsaid, one of seventy-two chieftains who built the Tower of Babel. Goídel Glas was the son of Nel (son of Fénius) and Scota (daughter of a Pharaoh of Egypt).[1] Goídel Glas is credited with the creation of Gaelic (proto-Irish language) from the original seventy-two languages that arose at the time of the confusion of tongues"

"Breogán (also spelt Breoghan, Bregon or Breachdan) is a character in the Lebor Gabála Érenn, a medieval Christian history of Ireland and the Irish (or Gaels). He is supposedly the son of Brath,[1] and is described as an ancestor of the Gaels. The Lebor Gabála purports to be an account of how the Gaels descend from Adam through the sons of Noah and how they came to Ireland."
"... one of their leaders, Breogán, founds a city called Brigantia and builds a great tower. From the top of the tower, his son Íth glimpses Ireland. The Gaels, including some of Breogán's sons, sail to Ireland from Brigantia and agree to divide it between them"

This outlines a potential Mediterranean route. The starting point is where Scythians are from, just north of the Black and Caspian Seas. A very seaworthy people could have come down through the straights of Bosporous towards Egypt and eventually moved on to Iberia and finally the British Isles.

I think the legend can be disproved from a time perspective by looking at the ages of the subclades and the supposed link to the Hebrew Exodus (and Goidelic) of Egypt.

However, I offer this point in a Brian Sykes-like (or Oppenheimer) manner. It may not be precise but oral traditions can point to some general ancient truths.

P.S. there are a lot of folks who want this to be true.

A mediterranean route for Bell Beaker is just crazy talk. But I have the feeling you just brought it up only to "shoot a penalty without the goalkeeper" as we say in Italy. That is to easily debunk it.
The main contender for a northern route is a more diversified push that happened in a straight south-east/north west movement that cutted across Hungary- Austria Germany and Switzerland .
But the northern route would have happened anyway. I'm just talking about the possibility of two routes. So one danubian ( perhaps taken by a minority of tribes ) and the main one further to the north

TigerMW
01-26-2021, 04:19 PM
A mediterranean route for Bell Beaker is just crazy talk. But I have the feeling you just brought it up only to "shoot a penalty without the goalkeeper" as we say in Italy. That is to easily debunk it.
There are people who don't think it is crazy talk. How do I converse with them? Our arguments can outweigh the Med route, but the truth is there is a very thin (not populous that we can see) line from the R1b-L51's MRCA to R1b-L51>P310>L151's MRCA, where all the action really begins.

The ancient P310* find in Mongolia is very important as it pulls an origin eastward out of Central and West Europe, I think. However, P310 people, if they were great sailors, could have made it to Iberia and by Gibraltar quite quickly - months, not centuries.
Timing wise, the Lebor Gabála Érenn has no alignment that I can see with R1b-L51 subclades but geographically it is plausible (so far as I can see).

Silesian
01-26-2021, 04:31 PM
I like the really obvious stuff.

Quibbling about dodgy ancient samples full of holes isn't worth the calories expended doing it.

But thanks for the sentiment.



Target: RUS_Fatyanovo_BA:VOR004
Distance: 1.5274% / 0.01527381 | R4P
51.0 RUS_Afanasievo
30.8 POL_Globular_Amphora
12.0 KAZ_Mereke_MBA
6.2 Baltic_LTU_Narva

Does Fatyanovo share Afanasievo component with Kurgan Polish Corded Ware, like L51* L52, sample below?
Polish Corded Ware samples W070POL dated to 3890+/-YBP and :W040; any ideas how Afanasievo like component(5300+/-YBP) got into Fatyanovo R1a-93 samples? Did the component travel via Afansievo> Andronovo-Sintashta cline?
R-L51--PF6535 * CTS10373/PF6537/FGC39 * PF6414(H)+2 SNPsformed 6100 ybp, TMRCA 5700 ybpinfo
id:W070POL [PL-PK]ageinew

TigerMW
01-26-2021, 04:32 PM
Center of gravity for many of the smaller P312 subclades, and L51 subclade PF7589 is along the south Baltic coast.
We have DF99 in Italy too, I think. DF19 appears continental which leaves a wide open space for origin.

L238 is the only subclade of P312 that I can say is clearly Baltic/North Sea. It's MRCA is 3 SNPs downstream of P312's which would give it 200-300 years to make it north into Scandinavia.

We can't really say (strongly) U106 originated along the Baltic, can we? Our ancient DNA on U106 is quite a distance age wise from U106's true TMRCA. We have ancient U106 in Unetice, which is quite a ways to the south (of Battle Axe).

I don't know U106 that well. Is Z18 similar to L238? They call themselves the North Sea tribe, but they are 10 SNPs downstream of U106 so that is maybe a 1000 years to find a way into Scandinavia.

Look at the early branch of U106, R-BY30097. It is the ancestor of the massive R-Z381 subclade. Where are the R-BY30097* people? I know of only two. One is from Germany and the other Italy.

Modern populations are HARD (edit:typo) to predict origins from.

P312 and U106 brother R1b-P310>L151>S1194 may be the best evidence of a northern origin. I can't find anything in S1194 that is Southern European and S1194's MRCA is old, only one SNP downstream of L151's MRCA.

jdean
01-26-2021, 04:35 PM
I know we've stopped talking about RIDE550 and I don't won't to disagree with FTDNA (apart from anything else I don't have any special skills that qualify my for taking the debate to that level) but

The sequence reported in the BAM file for M12145 looks a bit like a car crash to me, there are 14 areas that match the reference sequence 100% according to BLAT

the closest match for the PF6535 sequence on the other hand is 94.9%

Bearing in mind that they are both mutations that are susceptible to misdiagnoses due to rot (G to A & C to T) I don't really see how FTDNA can claim the M12145 call more reliable ?

MitchellSince1893
01-26-2021, 05:10 PM
We have DF99 in Italy too, I think. DF19 appears continental which leaves a wide open space for origin.

L238 is the only subclade of P312 that I can say is clearly Baltic/North Sea. It's MRCA is 3 SNPs downstream of P312's which would give it 200-300 years to make it north into Scandinavia.

We can't really say (strongly) U106 originated along the Baltic, can we? Our ancient DNA on U106 is quite a distance age wise from U106's true TMRCA. We have ancient U106 in Unetice, which is quite a ways to the south (of Battle Axe).

I don't know U106 that well. Is Z18 similar to L238? They call themselves the North Sea tribe, but they are 10 SNPs downstream of U106 so that is maybe a 1000 years to find a way into Scandinavia.

Look at the early branch of U106, R-BY30097. It is the ancestor of the massive R-Z381 subclade. Where are the R-BY30097* people? I know of only two. One is from Germany and the other Italy.

Modern populations are to predict origins from.

P312 and U106 brother R1b-P310>L151>S1194 may be the best evidence of a northern origin. I can't find anything in S1194 that is Southern European and S1194's MRCA is old, only one SNP downstream of L151's MRCA.

Excluding New World and UK and Ireland, P312 Brother clade S1194 is found (in descending order on FTDNA haplotree) in Germany Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, France, Belgium, Austria, Czech Rep, Hungary. Nothing in the Balkans or along the Med.

P312>DF19 is descending order Germany (94 samples), Belgium, Netherlands, France, Norway, Sweden, Poland, Czech Rep, Switzerland, Austria, Russia, Denmark, Italy (2 samples), Luxembourg (1 sample), Portugal (1 sample). Only 3 samples along the Med so far and nothing in the Balkans.

P312>Y18211: 1 sample each from Ukraine & Belgium

PF7589: Germany (24 samples) Switzerland (9), Italy (8), Spain (4), Belgium (3), France (2), Poland (2), Portugal (2), Czech (2), Turkey (1), Croatia (1), Hungary (1), Austria (1), Norway (1), Sweden (1). While there are some in Med Sea countries, the bulk appear (~2.5 to 1 ratio) to be from Northern Europe.

None of the above is really supports a Med route. Could L151 have hopped on a boat in the Black Sea and got off near the Rhone River and headed up to Northern Europe (e.g. SGC), before the L151 population occurred? Sure anything is possible.

Dewsloth
01-26-2021, 05:49 PM
We have DF99 in Italy too, I think. DF19 appears continental which leaves a wide open space for origin.

L238 is the only subclade of P312 that I can say is clearly Baltic/North Sea. It's MRCA is 3 SNPs downstream of P312's which would give it 200-300 years to make it north into Scandinavia.

We can't really say (strongly) U106 originated along the Baltic, can we? Our ancient DNA on U106 is quite a distance age wise from U106's true TMRCA. We have ancient U106 in Unetice, which is quite a ways to the south (of Battle Axe).

I don't know U106 that well. Is Z18 similar to L238? They call themselves the North Sea tribe, but they are 10 SNPs downstream of U106 so that is maybe a 1000 years to find a way into Scandinavia.

Look at the early branch of U106, R-BY30097. It is the ancestor of the massive R-Z381 subclade. Where are the R-BY30097* people? I know of only two. One is from Germany and the other Italy.

Modern populations are to predict origins from.

P312 and U106 brother R1b-P310>L151>S1194 may be the best evidence of a northern origin. I can't find anything in S1194 that is Southern European and S1194's MRCA is old, only one SNP downstream of L151's MRCA.

DF19's modern distribution pattern (not frequency) looks very much like U106. But unlike their fortunate Uncle U106, no samples from Battle Axe/CW (or even Beaker) eras.
The oldest sample (6DT23 ~250CE) looks closest to an Insular Celt as a single pop, but his makeup leaves the possibility of a lot of Germanic mixed in from previous generations.
The second oldest (RMPR31 carbon dated to ~376 CE) was found in Rome, but looks closest to modern Norwegian average.

Distance to: ITA_Rome_Late_Antiquity:RMPR31
0.02240159 Norwegian
0.02290643 Dutch
0.02295681 Danish
0.02304767 French_Pas-de-Calais
0.02341117 Afrikaner
0.02345321 Swedish
0.02382061 Welsh
0.02412413 German
0.02468599 English
0.02499629 Icelandic
0.02546458 French_Brittany
0.02546811 French_Paris
0.02595309 French_Nord
0.02601649 Belgian
0.02615266 English_Cornwall
0.02633935 Scottish
0.02708928 French_Alsace
0.02746175 Orcadian
0.02755623 Irish
0.02857893 Swiss_German
0.02910247 Shetlandic
0.02940783 Italian_Aosta_Valley
0.02977608 French_Seine-Maritime
0.02981209 Austrian
0.03011748 Swiss_French

Closest Individuals (ancient and modern):

Distance to: ITA_Rome_Late_Antiquity:RMPR31
0.01247117 VK2020_EST_Saaremaa_EVA:VK492
0.01430210 England_Saxon:I0777
0.01442047 VK2020_SWE_Skara_VA:VK303
0.01539286 Swedish:Sweden18


So if DF19 looks Continental, maybe "_northern_ Continental (even Jutland/Frisia/S. Baltic) in a place with acidic soils and/or a culture that practiced cremation" would be more specific? :biggrin1:
The Norwegian/Dutch/Danish in the averages and the Saxon and Swedish in the individuals seem to be a strong hint at Jutland for a Continental possibility.

L238 looks like the "piggy who stayed home" and didn't play a major part in early Germanic expansion (Vikings are another matter) even where Uncle U106 did.

TigerMW
01-26-2021, 05:49 PM
PF7589: Germany (24 samples) Switzerland (9), Italy (8), Spain (4), Belgium (3), France (2), Poland (2), Portugal (2), Czech (2), Turkey (1), Croatia (1), Hungary (1), Austria (1), Norway (1), Sweden (1). While there are some in Med Sea countries, the bulk appear (~2.5 to 1 ratio) to be from Northern Europe.
Modern distributions of R1b-L51>PF7589 could be used to argue for a Mediterranean route or some combination of a Danubian/Mediterranean route. The sample from Turkey is especially something to think about. YFull has him as a true R-PF7589*.

I think we all know of a fellow who bases much of the out of Italy everything theory on PF7589/Z2118. In all fairness to the guy, there are a lot of Italians spread across the early branching of R-PF7589. R-PF7589 IS the non-P310 branch so it pulls some strong consideration.

However, (and I missed a word), it is hard to predict ancient origins from modern populations and these modern distributions color our thinking quite a bit.

I think the most important find so far is still the P310* way out in Mongolia about 3000BC. That puts us in East Europe at least. However, that doesn't argue that an L51 Black Sea sailing group couldn't have been related from back home somewhere in the Pontic-Caspian region. All roads and voyages would lead back to there.

TigerMW
01-26-2021, 05:59 PM
I know we've stopped talking about RIDE550 and I don't won't to disagree with FTDNA (apart from anything else I don't have any special skills that qualify my for taking the debate to that level) but

The sequence reported in the BAM file for M12145 looks a bit like a car crash to me, there are 14 areas that match the reference sequence 100% according to BLAT

the closest match for the PF6535 sequence on the other hand is 94.9%

Bearing in mind that they are both mutations that are susceptible to misdiagnoses due to rot (G to A & C to T) I don't really see how FTDNA can claim the M12145 call more reliable ?

Just a word of caution. I wasn't speaking directly to the phylogenetic analyst.
I just think anything below R-M269 on this sample is uncertain enough to not hold much weight as evidence of anything. That's all.

razyn
01-26-2021, 06:00 PM
Center of gravity for many of the smaller P312 subclades, and L51 subclade PF7589 is along the south Baltic coast. I would more inclined to go with River skills that expand into coastal sea skills once they get to the Baltic and North Seas. But like I said in a previous post: If a trade network existed along their routes, they didn't need to have strong mariner skills, they just had to barter with or coerce the locals to get them across said body of water. e.g. Dothraki crossing the Narrow Sea.

Amber trade routes from the Baltic in this era had to cross several bodies of water

https://sep.yimg.com/ay/yhst-10406508139399/amber-trade-routes-1.gif



I missed my favorite route (via the Pripyat, Pripet, or pick your own spelling) on this amber-specific map. And anyway, Vladimir Taraskin has recently declared the Pripyat swamp impassable, or something like that (maybe the comment was specific to pastoralists with herds). But just yesterday I happened upon this article, less than a year old, suggesting that my favorite route is about to be dredged to a depth of three meters and provided with locks, etc. for ship traffic between the Black Sea and the Baltic. So I'll just link that, primarily for its map, and for the mention (early in the long piece) that the route has been in use for thousands of years, was known to the ancient Greeks, the Vikings, etc. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/06/the-race-to-save-polesia-europes-secret-amazon-aoe

Be forewarned, it is really depressing. The ship route, if built, is expected to devastate the area's well-known biodiversity, and make the human population of Belarus even more radioactive; the sediment to be dredged up contains remnants of the Chernobyl disaster. But, hey, some folks in the shipping business will get richer.

etrusco
01-26-2021, 06:57 PM
FWIW


https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1352772293202767874?s=20W

Silesian
01-26-2021, 07:37 PM
FWIW


https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1352772293202767874?s=20W
R-M269(xR-PF7562,R-L23,Z2103,L51)

R-P297(xR-M269-PF7562,R-L23,Z2103,L51)


Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I0124 / M
Find location: Lebyanzhinka, Sok River, Samara
Country: Russia
Associated label in publication: EHG
Date: 5657-5541 calBCE (6680±30 BP, Beta-392490)
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U5a1d
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a (P297)
Reference: MathiesonNature2015 (1240k of same same sample with 390k in HaakLazaridis2015)
Colour group: EHG
Comments: null

etrusco
01-26-2021, 07:41 PM
R-M269(xR-PF7562,R-L23,Z2103,L51)

R-P297(xR-M269-PF7562,R-L23,Z2103,L51)



I know very well that sample: There is a R1b M 269 sample also on the lower Volga dated around 4200/4000 IIRC.

The sample you mentioned is probably the famous Samara Hunter Gather

Silesian
01-26-2021, 08:24 PM
I know very well that sample: There is a R1b M 269 sample also on the lower Volga dated around 4200/4000 IIRC.

The sample you mentioned is probably the famous Samara Hunter Gather
Yes 100% correct---R-P297 and R-V1636 from Volga region, 15600+/- ybp, Same region fast forward to bronze age you have R1b-Z2103-Z2108/9 .

TigerMW
01-26-2021, 09:26 PM
R-M269(xR-PF7562,R-L23,Z2103,L51)


I think we are talking about - I2181 4606-4447 calBCE - as the earliest R-M269 so far. He's only a couple hundred years older than the R1b-M269>L23 MRCA.

I2181 is at Smyadovo, Bulgaria, on the west side of the Black Sea and only about 300 km/190 mi from the Sea of Marmara.

This doesn't really help the Corded Ware route case unless his EHG autosomal is a sign his offspring didn't get to Iberia early (edit: before 2500 BC and the supposed reflux and/or Steppes auDNA Beaker folks entrance to Iberia - with a chance to bear the P312 MRCA).

rms2
01-26-2021, 09:37 PM
I think we are talking about - I2181 4606-4447 calBCE - as the earliest R-M269 so far. He's only a couple hundred years older than the R1b-M269>L23 MRCA.

I2181 is at Smyadovo, Bulgaria, on the west side of the Black Sea and only about 300 km/190 mi from the Sea of Marmara.

This doesn't really help the Corded Ware route case unless his EHG autosomal is a sign his offspring didn't get to Iberia early.

Iberia?

His R1b-M269 is sign enough.

But, once again, it depends on what one means by "early".

Dewsloth
01-26-2021, 09:52 PM
In case anyone here didn't see. An example of the "landscape" before SGV (and L51) got to the middle of Germany:


Nature 25 Jan 2021 - https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-020-01627-4

The Wartberg culture (WBC, 3500-2800 BCE) dates to the Late Neolithic period, a time of important demographic and cultural transformations in western Europe. We performed genome-wide analyses of 42 individuals who were interred in a WBC collective burial in Niedertiefenbach, Germany (3300-3200 cal. BCE). The results showed that the farming population of Niedertiefenbach carried a surprisingly large hunter-gatherer ancestry component (34–58%). This component was most likely introduced during the cultural transformation that led to the WBC. In addition, the Niedertiefenbach individuals exhibited a distinct human leukocyte antigen gene pool, possibly reflecting an immune response that was geared towards detecting viral infections.

^^Wartberg culture burials already had imported amber objects, so the amber routes were functional.

From Wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niedertiefenbach_(megalithic_tomb)

Finds
Pottery
Virtually no pottery was found.[7]

Stone tools
Two flint arrowheads and a scraper were found on the bottom of the tomb, and a further flint knife in layer 7. The tomb also contained some flint chippings.[7]

Bone
The amount of animal bone found was unusually low. There were fifteen bones and three teeth of cattle, one dog or wolf bone and two unidentified animal bones.[11] Ten dog canines, two dog mandibles and two animal bones carved to look like dog (or wolf) teeth are comparable to finds from other Wartberg tombs and might have a totemic or talismanic significance.[12] A pierced fossilised seashell was also found.

Amber
21 amber beads were found, virtually all of them from phase 2.[13] Amber is not locally available and was probably imported from the Baltic.

Metal
While poor in other finds, the tomb was remarkably rich in metal, especially copper. Six copper spirals were found, one from phase 1, the rest from phase 2.[14] They are among the earliest metal finds in that part of Europe.[15] The presence of several copper ornaments probably places phases 2 and 3 of the Niedertiefenbach tomb, but not necessarily its erection, in late Wartberg, after 3000 BC.[2]

TigerMW
01-26-2021, 09:56 PM
Iberia?
His R1b-M269 is sign enough.
But, once again, it depends on what one means by "early".

I meant early enough to be in Iberia well before 2500 BC and the supposed reflux and/or Steppes auDNA Beaker folks entrance to Iberia - and therefore with a chance to bear the P312 MRCA in Iberia.

Also having M269 at this timeframe in Bulgaria in non-Corded Ware territories and pre-Yamana non-Steppe territories before the L23 MRCA, only helps the case for an L51 Med route into Europe.

rms2
01-26-2021, 09:59 PM
I meant early enough to be "before 2500 BC and the supposed reflux and/or Steppes auDNA Beaker folks entrance to Iberia - with a chance to bear the P312 MRCA".

Also having M269 at this timeframe in Bulgaria in non-Corded Ware land, before the L23 MRCA, only helps the case for an L51 Med route into Europe.

What reason is there to imagine an L51 Mediterranean route?

etrusco
01-26-2021, 09:59 PM
I meant early enough to be "before 2500 BC and the supposed reflux and/or Steppes auDNA Beaker folks entrance to Iberia - with a chance to bear the P312 MRCA".

Also having M269 at this timeframe in Bulgaria in non-Corded Ware land, before the L23 MRCA, only helps the case for an L51 Med route into Europe.


There is no mediterranean route for BBC. This guy can be connected with a very early branch off of IE and IMHO possibly a pre-proto anatolian speaker

rms2
01-26-2021, 10:10 PM
Just a word of caution. I wasn't speaking directly to the phylogenetic analyst.
I just think anything below R-M269 on this sample is uncertain enough to not hold much weight as evidence of anything. That's all.

Given a few of your most recent posts, I thought "the phylogenetic analyst" was you.

Pardon my mistake.

I, on the other hand, was relying on an email from Iosif Lazaridis rather than on expertise I cannot claim.

Besides that, who said RISE550 is a great sample and ought to be regarded as a sure-fire L51? Please point out who that was.

rms2
01-26-2021, 10:36 PM
I cannot see any reason to imagine a Mediterranean route for L51.

If L51 arrived in Europe west of the steppe via the Mediterranean littoral, we should be seeing the oldest L51 popping up there, in cultures of that region.

Do we see that?

If things change, and we start to see such things, okay, but thus far L51 is most frequent in northern Europe, not only in modern men but in ancient DNA.

I know Jean Manco put forward her "Stelae People" idea, which featured a Mediterranean coasting route from the Pontic steppe, but it seems to me she believed that was the solution to the mistaken notion that Beaker was an out-of-Iberia phenomenon.

Silesian
01-26-2021, 10:45 PM
I think it is fair to say, what ever entry point Steppe Kurgan L51's+ entered into Europe they represent a very successful snp! Exciting times ahead as we get new papers. <little depressing about the violence>

rms2
01-26-2021, 10:48 PM
I think it is fair to say, what ever entry point Steppe Kurgan L51's+ entered into Europe they represent a very successful snp! Exciting times ahead as we get new papers. <little depressing about the violence>

Personally, I think the current evidence supports a role for R1b-L51 in the genesis of Corded Ware (the CWC-X horizon) in the NW Ukraine/E Slovakia/SE Poland area via Yamnaya.

Single Grave Corded Ware may have been largely R1b-L51. Beaker was a SGC spin-off, was the vector of R1b-L51 in western Europe, and was especially successful.

TigerMW
01-26-2021, 10:59 PM
Personally, I think the current evidence supports a role for R1b-L51 in the genesis of Corded Ware (the CWC-X horizon) in the NW Ukraine/E Slovakia/SE Poland area via Yamnaya.
I agree too but to be fair other routes are still quite viable considerations.

I'm trying to put a nail in the coffin of a Mediterranean route but it can sound reasonable.

Proposition: R1b-L51's main lineage thru L51>P310>L151>P312 branching into West and Central Europe followed a Mediterranean route from the Pontic region to Iberia and then the British Isles.

Points of evidence:
#1) The Bell Beakers and ensuing Atlantic Bronze Age P312 descendants were excellent seafaring people, able to travel from the North Sea to Sardinia. A Black Sea/Mediterranean Sea people would provide an environment for these skills.
#2) Irish Medieval literature, the Lebor Gabála Érenn, claims the ancestors to the Gaels come from Scythia to Egypt and then on to Spain and finally Ireland.
- I'm adding points #3 and #4.
#3) R1b-L51's only other immediate branch besides L51>P310 is L51>PF7589. It has a number of Southern European samples today, and includes a true R-PF7589* individual from Turkey/Anatolian Peninsula.
#4) The earliest R1b-M269 found is in Bulgaria at about 4500 BC, near the Black Sea and not too far from the Sea of Maramar. This is well before the L51 MRCA. This dumps into the Mediterranean.This is not Corded Ware territory and is not Steppes pre-Yamnaya territory.

CopperAxe
01-26-2021, 11:48 PM
Lmao yeah lets just pretend the 1500 year period before Yamnaya began where we have tons of evidence of contact and migrations from the steppes into the Balkans did not happen...

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 12:03 AM
I'm adding a fifth point, probably the most important.

Proposition: R1b-L51's main lineage thru L51>P310>L151>P312 branching into West and Central Europe followed a Mediterranean route from the Pontic region to Iberia and then the British Isles.

Points of evidence:
#1) The Bell Beakers and ensuing Atlantic Bronze Age P312 descendants were excellent seafaring people, able to travel from the North Sea to Sardinia. A Black Sea/Mediterranean Sea people would provide an environment for these skills.
#2) Irish Medieval literature, the Lebor Gabála Érenn, claims the ancestors to the Gaels come from Scythia to Egypt and then on to Spain and finally Ireland.
#3) R1b-L51's only other immediate branch besides L51>P310 is L51>PF7589. It has a number of Southern European samples today, and includes a true R-PF7589* individual from Turkey/Anatolian Peninsula.
#4) The earliest R1b-M269 found is in Bulgaria at about 4500 BC, near the Black Sea and not too far from the Sea of Maramar. This is well before the L51 MRCA. This dumps into the Mediterranean.This is not Corded Ware territory and is not Steppes pre-Yamnaya territory. This culture had gold ornaments.
#5) The first Bell Beakers were probably Iberian (Le Mercier). The cultural package includes archer's wrist guard, copper daggers, palmela points, v-perforated buttons, not just bell shaped pottery. They also had occasional gold ornaments. The earliest Iberian Beakers might have only had a sliver of P312. Remember we only need the single P312 MRCA individual about 3000 BC.

I would like nothing better than to stamp on and stamp out the L51 Mediterranean route into Western Europe. The Northern European route offers much more DNA related evidence (and the genes don't lie). However, we are talking about a thin string of Early Bronze Age MRCA individuals. That's the needle in the haystack problem. The L51>P310>L151 bread crumb SNP trail into Europe is still missing a link. It just isn't there today.

I don't have anything else but I can't argue strongly that the L51 Mediterranean or L51 Danubian routes are not reasonable.... unless someone has something else. L51 in pre-Yamanaya? northwest in CWC? pre-CWC Kama? ???

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 12:09 AM
Lmao yeah lets just pretend the 1500 year period before Yamnaya began where we have tons of evidence of contact and migrations from the steppes into the Balkans did not happen...

This is just a general comment. We don't need "tons of evidence of contact and migrations" in reality. We only have one thin lineage of M269>L23>L51>P310>L151 that needed to get through. Meanwhile the oldest M269 that we know of is in SE Europe.

We can laugh about it, crack jokes, get angry or just call it crazy talk. Just show me some evidence a Med route can't work or is not plausible. All we can do, it appears, is use the "outweigh" argument technique and claim more data for a northern route. I believe it but calling out crazy talk doesn't win an argument with a non-believer.... when the truth is we have a missing link.

Dieu
01-27-2021, 12:23 AM
PF7589 is under M269, not L51

CopperAxe
01-27-2021, 12:30 AM
We don't need "tons of evidence of contact and migrations". We only need one thin lineage of M269>L23>L51>P310>L151, meanwhile the oldest M269 that we know of is in SE Europe.

We can laugh about it, crack jokes, get angry or just call it crazy talk. Just show me some evidence. Show me some evidence a Med route can't work or is not plausible. All we can do, it appears, is use the "outweigh" argument technique and claim more data for a northern route. I believe it but calling out crazy talk doesn't win an argument with a non-believer.... when the truth is we have a missing link.

I was specifically referring to this part of your comment btw:


#4) The earliest R1b-M269 found is in Bulgaria at about 4500 BC, near the Black Sea and not too far from the Sea of Maramar. This is well before the L51 MRCA. This dumps into the Mediterranean.This is not Corded Ware territory and is not Steppes pre-Yamnaya territory.

As for the rest of your comment, it takes very, very special pleading to look at the data we have and think that a mediterranean route is a plausible option. The special pleading is evidenced by that you tried to use a medieval euhemerism as a serious argument for your "case".

sheepslayer
01-27-2021, 01:09 AM
What if we sat down together and tried to figure out exactly what makes the Mediterranean route of dispersal so implausible, thereby forming a rigorous counter-argument or two that may prove useful when we encounter people who are actually fervent about continuity-centric Beaker models. For some reason this approach seems favorable compared to squelching the conversation as soon as unpopular perspectives are discussed

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 01:34 AM
PF7589 is under M269, not L51

Dieu, I don't think my eyes are deceiving me. PF7589/Z2118 is a brother to P310 under L51.


It is PF7562 that is a brother to L23 under M269.

https://www.familytreedna.com/public/y-dna-haplotree/R;name=R-M269

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 01:36 AM
What if we sat down together and tried to figure out exactly what makes the Mediterranean route of dispersal so implausible, thereby forming a rigorous counter-argument or two that may prove useful when we encounter people who are actually fervent about continuity-centric Beaker models. For some reason this approach seems favorable compared to squelching the conversation as soon as unpopular perspectives are discussed
Exactly. Squelching conversation or raising one's voice doesn't necessarily win people over.

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 01:41 AM
I was specifically referring to this part of your comment btw:



As for the rest of your comment, it takes very, very special pleading to look at the data we have and think that a mediterranean route is a plausible option. The special pleading is evidenced by that you tried to use a medieval euhemerism as a serious argument for your "case".

I list five points. Attacking just one does not knock the others down. It is your opinion that the Irish poems are a euhermerism.

"Euhemerism is an approach to the interpretation of mythology in which mythological accounts are presumed to have originated from real historical events or personages".

That's exactly what supporters of a Mediterranean/Iberian route are saying. The Irish mythical account was not based on nothing. It is just an interpretation or way to explain ancient events.

I think the Irish poems were not based on ancient migration stories passed down from real witnesses. However, I can't prove that and there are many who think the stories hold credence. Authors like Sykes and Oppenheimer haven't helped us out on that.

Generalissimo
01-27-2021, 01:53 AM
I list five points. Attacking just one does not knock the others down. It is your opinion that the Irish poems are a euhermerism.

"Euhemerism is an approach to the interpretation of mythology in which mythological accounts are presumed to have originated from real historical events or personages".

That's exactly what supporters of a Mediterranean/Iberian route are saying. The Irish mythical account was not based on nothing. It is just an interpretation or way to explain ancient events.

I think the Irish poems were not based on ancient migration stories passed down from real witnesses. However, I can't prove that and there are many who think the stories hold credence. Authors like Sykes and Oppenheimer haven't helped us out on that.

Irish poems don't count, especially considering that there's a trail of R1b-L51 in ancient Corded Ware DNA from the western edge of the steppe into Poland, Germany, Switzerland and even France.

https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2020/04/aesch25.html

https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2020/04/corded-ware-cultural-and-genetic.html

So unless you now change your tune and start arguing that there were two separate waves of L51 into Western Europe, one via Corded Ware and the other via the Mediterranean, then you've lost the argument.

Of course, since the earliest Beakers in the ancient DNA record are basically identical to nearby Corded Ware samples, and there is no obvious L51 Mediterranean trail, or even a smoking gun for such a thing, then you're up shit creek without a paddle on this score as well.

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 03:29 AM
Irish poems don't count, especially considering that there's a trail of R1b-L51 in ancient Corded Ware DNA from the western edge of the steppe into Poland, Germany, Switzerland and even France.

https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2020/04/aesch25.html

https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2020/04/corded-ware-cultural-and-genetic.html

So unless you now change your tune and start arguing that there were two separate waves of L51 into Western Europe, one via Corded Ware and the other via the Mediterranean, then you've lost the argument.

Of course, since the earliest Beakers in the ancient DNA record are basically identical to nearby Corded Ware samples, and there is no obvious L51 Mediterranean trail, or even a smoking gun for such a thing, then you're up shit creek without a paddle on this score as well.

I have agree and have agreed for some time that R1b-P312 came from the north of Europe. I argued this for years, just based STR diversity, even before the early branching of L151 became known.

Last year in the R1b project here are two of several attempts I've posted to try to show probably L51 routes.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/jazr4p61m954vaj/R1b-L51-EBA.pdf?dl=0
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/app0kkqfd7zkpxm/R1b-L51-CWC-BBC.pdf?dl=0

The Repin portion of the R1b-L51-EBA needs rework as I was basing that off something Anthony wrote. I'm working on a new version of this R1b-L51-EBA chart and need to include DF27 at Narbonne too.

What is NOT conclusive is L151/Aesch25. He's about at 2700BC but L151 is likely 200 to even 500 years older than this. He's also not quite in the Dutch/Rhenish area early enough to be considered a part of that Bell Beaker group expansion. A 3200BC R-L151 lineage could have little steppe DNA but accumulate it on the way into Central Europe. I don't think that is likely, though.

So, yes, he is a point of evidence, but not really conclusive. The Polish P310 guys are too late, about 2400 BC, to be predecessors to the Rhenish/Dutch are expansion. Still they are nice data points as they could be remnants left along the path of the true L151 MRCA.

You have a very good point though in arguing against L51 routes through Iberia. That is there can't be both, in my opinion, a north L51>P310>L151>P312 and an south route. P310* way out in Mongolia makes it very likely the P310 MRCA lived in Eastern Europe so two routes are near impossible. Therefore if a northern route is proven (or close), a Med route couldn't happen.

I can't arbitrarily say "Irish poems don't count". They are thousand year old documents and possibly based on oral traditions before. Not everyone starts out with that point of view.

RBHeadge
01-27-2021, 04:09 AM
PF7589: Germany (24 samples) Switzerland (9), Italy (8), Spain (4), Belgium (3), France (2), Poland (2), Portugal (2), Czech (2), Turkey (1), Croatia (1), Hungary (1), Austria (1), Norway (1), Sweden (1). While there are some in Med Sea countries, the bulk appear (~2.5 to 1 ratio) to be from Northern Europe.

The FTDNA database has a sampling bias. The unbiased published population survey's show the highest concentration of PF7589 in the Alps, Northern Italy, and Southern and Central France. There are officially nine (~7%) Swiss samples in the FTDNA database. But only eight (~6%) are from Italy, and two (~1%) are from France. So I'm be hesitant to read too much into those results when the bulk of the modern day populations are missing from the detailed database.

I know it's a poor use of time to assume ancient locations based on modern populations, but if I squint and look at the various level of PF7589 in the FTDNA database at various levels of PF7589, then I see a northern European tilt in the older branches as compared to the further downstream branches. It's most pronounced in BY38964, but that could be testing bias, since most men there are, broadly speaking, colonial era HRE/Swiss immigrants. This could imply a northern route or a Danubian one (for PF7589 at least). On the other hand, Yfull has a lot of Italians in the earlier clades. But with all of that typed, it's hard to draw conclusions when so much data is missing from the more heavily PF7589 populated areas. I'm reserving judgement until more ancient DNA is discovered and published.

And the ancient DNA has only two PF7589 samples. I18130 from Olmo di Nogara 1400-1200 BCE, and possibly WEZ57, Tollense Valley 1300-1200 BCE. The latter might have spent his childhood in Scandinavia. Those are pretty recent samples, and couldn't be much farther from each other. I can't draw any conclusions from that.



Modern distributions of R1b-L51>PF7589 could be used to argue for a Mediterranean route or some combination of a Danubian/Mediterranean route. The sample from Turkey is especially something to think about. YFull has him as a true R-PF7589*.

I think we all know of a fellow who bases much of the out of Italy everything theory on PF7589/Z2118. In all fairness to the guy, there are a lot of Italians spread across the early branching of R-PF7589. R-PF7589 IS the non-P310 branch so it pulls some strong consideration.

However, (and I missed a word), it is hard to predict ancient origins from modern populations and these modern distributions color our thinking quite a bit.
You posted a map on the R1b project page about a month ago that showed a modern day southern-Europe tilt for L51xL151.

I whole heartedly agree though that it is difficult to modern ancient migrations based on modern populations.

RBHeadge
01-27-2021, 04:53 AM
#3) R1b-L51's only other immediate branch besides L51>P310 is L51>PF7589. It has a number of Southern European samples today, and includes a true R-PF7589* individual from Turkey/Anatolian Peninsula.

Besides the usual caveats against using modern sample to infer ancient populations, I'll ask if can we safely assume that P310 and PF7589 traveled with each other into Europe? Both L151 and PF7589 are nine SNPs down from L51. That's probably over 500 years and certainly enough time to form different clans. Without published ancient DNA, I don't think we can definitively make the case that they arrived together. Perhaps they arrived at different times or entered via different routes? Didn't the bulk of Z2103 arrive differently than the bulk of L51/P310? And L51 and Z2103 are only 4 or 3 SNPs diverged from L23.

One could ask the same question of V1636. Did it arrive with the initial pulse of L51? Or was it a late comer and therefore didn't get the opportunity for reproductive success as P310?

Pylsteen
01-27-2021, 08:15 AM
I would add autosomal evidence to the uniparentals. Sure, it can dilute in a few hundred years, but it makes meditteranean sources less likely.

etrusco
01-27-2021, 08:51 AM
I would add autosomal evidence to the uniparentals. Sure, it can dilute in a few hundred years, but it makes meditteranean sources less likely.

I think the discussion about southern and northern route is also in itself basically meaningless: we have sample at the border between central and southern europe ( switzerland) dated ad around 2750 BC. Potential steppe arrival in southern France at around 2650 BC ( as per the latest paper on France genetics IIRC). In just a couple of generations these folks arrived basically in every part of the continent.
It is not like the IE arrived in northern europe, lived there for thousand of years and then moved south.
AH and I forgot the most important thing: one of the most likely place of origins of all these cultures is the western edge of the steppe that borders the carpathians mountains and also the north west coast of the black sea. So basically SOUTHEASTERN europe....

These are the kind of discussions on the tune " my grand daddies were IE 50/100 years before yours" that spoil the reputation of genetics forums, keep us from more interesting discussions and make us waste a lot of time.

etrusco
01-27-2021, 08:53 AM
I would add autosomal evidence to the uniparentals. Sure, it can dilute in a few hundred years, but it makes meditteranean sources less likely.

Delete

Dewsloth
01-27-2021, 04:21 PM
I think it is fair to say, what ever entry point Steppe Kurgan L51's+ entered into Europe they represent a very successful snp! Exciting times ahead as we get new papers. <little depressing about the violence>

Seems to be a running family trait: Of the three "ancient" DF19 samples, none were buried near where they were born, and at least two of the three were hacked to death. :fear::fencing:

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 04:35 PM
I think the discussion about southern and northern route is also in itself basically meaningless: ...
These are the kind of discussions on the tune " my grand daddies were IE 50/100 years before yours" that spoil the reputation of genetics forums, keep us from more interesting discussions and make us waste a lot of time.
Some people are more curious than others. I am very much interested in history, for example the American Civil War. I had multiple ancestors involved in it. One was first lieutenant from Illinois who participate in a daring 16 day calvary raid through the heart of the south as a preamble to the Battle of the South. They hardly slept, but you wouldn't either if tens of thousands of opposing troops were after you from multiple directions.

I'm proud of Lt. David V. Rhea but it doesn't make him a better "grand daddy" or the first "grand daddy" or even a generally moral person. A very interesting aspect is he had first cousins from Tennessee he was in opposing lines against at several major and terrible battles. I wonder how that felt? BTW, he is P312>L21>DF13>Z255.

I want to know what happened and get a feeling for what my ancestors went through. It's certainly better than watching the stuff (kind word) we have on TV now days.

I'm surprised you are following this thread since it is about the proposal of the route the R-L51 took into Europe and this is "meaningless". Nevertheless I see you offered your opinion on a "meaningless" topic.
AH and I forgot the most important thing: one of the most likely place of origins of all these cultures is the western edge of the steppe that borders the carpathians mountains and also the north west coast of the black sea. So basically SOUTHEASTERN europe.

BTW, Kris Kristiansen is doing a good job of investigating the hows and the whys of the Corded Ware cultures. It's very interesting. Not necessarily high morals, but it was a different place time. Yes, I care to know if I had ancestors in the thick of Corded Ware, of Bell Beakers, etc. Were the sailors or were they cowboys? and where, why, how, when?

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 04:50 PM
Besides the usual caveats against using modern sample to infer ancient populations, I'll ask if can we safely assume that P310 and PF7589 traveled with each other into Europe? Both L151 and PF7589 are nine SNPs down from L51. That's probably over 500 years and certainly enough time to form different clans. Without published ancient DNA, I don't think we can definitively make the case that they arrived together. Perhaps they arrived at different times or entered via different routes? Didn't the bulk of Z2103 arrive differently than the bulk of L51/P310? And L51 and Z2103 are only 4 or 3 SNPs diverged from L23.

One could ask the same question of V1636. Did it arrive with the initial pulse of L51? Or was it a late comer and therefore didn't get the opportunity for reproductive success as P310?

PF7589 and P310 are both sons of the R1b-L51 MRCA. Both could have "formed" at about the same time. However, I agree with you that PF7589's MRCA is much younger than P310's so there is a lot of time for divergence.

In comparison though with Z2103, Z2103's subclades are all more distantly related to P310 and PF7589 since all of the Z2103 people are L51-. In that regards, PF7589 is the only brother of P310 we have to study.

I agree with you also on V1636. R1b-V1636 is very, very distantly related to R1b-M269>L23>L51. V16136 people are M269- and there are 96 SNPs in the R1b-M269 block. That could be 10,000 years or more. Therefore, having V1636 in the Single Grave Culture, even though R1b-V1636 is R1b, is not very informative for understanding R1b-L51's presence or not in Single Grave.
I think the only conclusion we can draw from that is that Single Grave, a variant of Corded Ware, was clearly not 100% pure R1a, but we already knew that anyway.

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 04:58 PM
I think it is fair to say, what ever entry point Steppe Kurgan L51's+ entered into Europe they represent a very successful snp! Exciting times ahead as we get new papers. <little depressing about the violence>
Seems to be a running family trait: Of the three "ancient" DF19 samples, none were buried near where they were born, and at least two of the three were hacked to death. :fear::fencing:
Dr. Kristiansen is trying to investigate the hows and whys of Corded Ware. As he says, it is the "elephant in the room".

Plague may thus account for the Neolithic decline, paving the way for the steppe migrations, even if much still needs to be documented. However, that does not account for the genetic dominant of steppe male lines during the 3rd millennium onwards.
...
The authors propose patrilineal competition between lineages, leading to a global decline in male y-haplo groups, and the later dominance of a few male lines, such as R1b and R1a for Yamnay and CW.
...
The link this to the spread of a pastoral economy of strong male competition and control. from the below presentations.

"Genes, diseases, and migrations: what relationship?" (2018)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi1C1XMYU2Q

"Genetics, Migrations and Language Dispersals: Re-theorizing mobility and the formation of culture and language among the Corded Ware Cultures in Europe" (2016)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKn05BbEMcs

"The Bronze Age value system: from interaction to identies" (2012)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSZiEzVnUMI

A documentary on the formation of the U.S. Great Plains Indian horse-warrior culture emphasizes the access to horseriding as an incentive to violence and reduction of male lineages. Since CWC apparently had horses, the old adage of eat(kill) or be eaten(killed) may have applied.


Two main propositions have been put forward regarding CW economy. A long-standing tradition has viewed these groups as mobile herders, influenced by the pastoral nomadism ascribed to steppe societies such as the Yamnaya with whom they are likely related.
...
At the Wattendorf settlement in NE Bavaria, for instance, cattle were prominent among the faunal remains, but sheep, goats, pigs and horses were also found. from "Diet and Mobility in the Corded Ware of Central Europe" by Sjogren, Price & Kristiansen.

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 06:02 PM
...
You posted a map on the R1b project page about a month ago that showed a modern day southern-Europe tilt for L51xL151.

I whole heartedly agree though that it is difficult to modern ancient migrations based on modern populations.

I think you mean this one. It is M269xL151 shown in comparison to L151. This is helpful for casual R1b followers to understand the significance of R1b-M269>L23>L51>P310>L151. The Myres study intends to be much less biased than FTDNA data and Myres shows that about 95% of West/Central Europe's R1b population is L151+. L11(S127) is an equivalent to L151.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/7lse8et6wecg8s8/R1b-L151-Frequency_Europe.pdf?dl=0

The following chart also shows the importance of R1b-L151. Notice the large number of early branches of L151 still surviving until today (and testing in FTDNA's database). This could continues down the tree, in branches like U152's L2 and DF27's ZZ12 and Z290>L21's DF13.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/dhdw3hcfwaka0iw/R1b-L151-Early_Successful_Expansion.pdf?dl=0

You can see the same proportion in branching below. R1b-L151's tree contains 14,710 branches today, which is 94.6% of R1b's (M343's) 15,553 branches.

https://www.familytreedna.com/public/y-dna-haplotree/R;name=R-L151

This is not meant to be crass, but it's not that few care about Z2103, PF7589, etc. They are all very important. It's that so many are interested in L151 (P312+U106+S1194,etc). This is because the origin and doings of a single Early Bronze Age man, the L151 MRCA, and his family had very wide impact.

Silesian
01-27-2021, 07:08 PM
This is not meant to be crass, but it's not that few care about Z2103, PF7589, etc. They are all very important. It's that so many are interested in L151 (P312+U106+S1194,etc). This is because the origin and doings of a single Early Bronze Age man, the L151 MRCA, and his family had very wide impact.
L51 Europe--
Ditto upstream M269+ and L23+
Even though these snps are separated by 1000's of years, I have a theory that R1b around the Volga are very, very old, and share same burial regions/grounds and or burial mounds. For example P297(I0124, Samara HG, Russian Mesolithic, 5650-5555 BCand Khvalynsk V1636+ and North Caucasus PG2001 V1636+. Likewise Z2103+ and L51+ and V1636+ will share same burial grounds. Only time will tell. I0443??Rise550??

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 07:15 PM
L51 Europe--
Ditto upstream M269+ and L23+
Even though these snps are separated by 1000's of years, I have a theory that R1b around the Volga are very, very old, and share same burial regions/grounds and or burial mounds. For example P297(I0124, Samara HG, Russian Mesolithic, 5650-5555 BCand Khvalynsk V1636+ and North Caucasus PG2001 V1636+. Likewise Z2103+ and L51+ and V1636+ will share same burial grounds. Only time will tell. I0443??Rise550??

I'm waiting for a L51+ skeleton to show up in the Russian Mesolithic, probably to the north.
Maybe I'll be fooled and it will in the Caucasus. ???

Or course I'd really like an L151* guy about 3000-2600 BC in Single Grave or just east. There may not have been many around to find but a P312 or U106 person or two in the same regions and time would be big, or maybe I should say "massive".

That reminds me, I need to review updates for the Basal project and get them in the right places.
https://www.familytreedna.com/public/R1bBasalSubclades?iframe=yresults

rms2
01-27-2021, 10:31 PM
I would add autosomal evidence to the uniparentals. Sure, it can dilute in a few hundred years, but it makes meditteranean sources less likely.

Very true.

In Europe steppe DNA gives way to Neolithic Farmer DNA as one moves south. That's just in general, but it certainly makes it unlikely that L51 came in along the Mediterranean littoral and moved into Europe from that region.

Looks instead like an east-to-west, north-to-south movement.

etrusco
01-27-2021, 10:55 PM
Very true.

In Europe steppe DNA gives way to Neolithic Farmer DNA as one moves south. That's just in general, but it certainly makes it unlikely that L51 came in along the Mediterranean littoral and moved into Europe from that region.

Looks instead like an east-to-west, north-to-south movement.

True.
But then you have the swiss samples that heading south ended up having half the farmers ancestry of the Dutch Beakers for example. That is an hint that the east to west movement was more rapid than the leaking south of the R1b P312 .

rms2
01-27-2021, 11:18 PM
True.
But then you have the swiss samples that heading south ended up having half the farmers ancestry of the Dutch Beakers for example. That is an hint that the east to west movement was more rapid than the leaking south of the R1b P312 .

Well, the Swiss samples are older than many of the others we have, and Switzerland is not exactly on the Mediterranean littoral.

TigerMW
01-27-2021, 11:51 PM
You have a very good point though in arguing against L51 routes through Iberia. That is there can't be both, in my opinion, a north L51>P310>L151>P312 and an south route. P310* way out in Mongolia makes it very likely the P310 MRCA lived in Eastern Europe so two routes are near impossible. Therefore if a northern route is proven (or close), a Med route couldn't happen.

Generalissmo, I want you to know I share Eurogenes articles/web links and quote on R1b forums because I think the autosomal alignment is telling.

Here is the most convincing chart I've seen so far on the alignment of R1b-P312 and "eastern ancestry" which includes Yamnaya (steppe or whatever we want to call it). It's from David Reich's presentation and the Olalde studies data.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/3dd0d1bnrpzxvd0/Bell_Beaker-Britain-Iberian-pop-replace.pdf?dl=0

The individual dots are ancient skeletons. They are blank for females and colored for males. The alignment is so strong it is almost unreal how R1b Y DNA (probably P312) accompanies new continental auDNA (with steppe) to both the British Isles and Iberian Peninsula.

Silesian
01-28-2021, 12:42 AM
I'm waiting for a L51+ skeleton to show up in the Russian Mesolithic, probably to the north.
Maybe I'll be fooled and it will in the Caucasus. ???

Or course I'd really like an L151* guy about 3000-2600 BC in Single Grave or just east. There may not have been many around to find but a P312 or U106 person or two in the same regions and time would be big, or maybe I should say "massive".

That reminds me, I need to review updates for the Basal project and get them in the right places.
https://www.familytreedna.com/public/R1bBasalSubclades?iframe=yresults

Exciting to see different ideas. Here's another. The Human microbiome has anywhere from 1:1 to 10:1 ratio of non human cell's. Don't you agree it would be pretty interesting to see the philogeny of Yersinia pestis when it appears in R1b-L51, and how it spread? Did you notice the latest Fatyanovo use Early Baltic, Polish Corded Ware-(Afanasievo drift), or Yamnaya.

TigerMW
01-28-2021, 01:17 AM
I think it is fair to say, what ever entry point Steppe Kurgan L51's+ entered into Europe they represent a very successful snp! Exciting times ahead as we get new papers. <little depressing about the violence>

I posted earlier Kris Kristiansen,

Plague may thus account for the Neolithic decline, paving the way for the steppe migrations, even if much still needs to be documented. However, that does not account for the genetic dominant of steppe male lines during the 3rd millennium onwards.
...
The authors propose patrilineal competition between lineages, leading to a global decline in male y-haplo groups, and the later dominance of a few male lines, such as R1b and R1a for Yamnay and CW.
...
The link this to the spread of a pastoral economy of strong male competition and control.

The implication of the competition and control is violence, but it is not necessarily event/war/battle driven. It could be a rigid control structure.

I think David Reich gave us a prelude to this in his "tale of two sub-continents" presentation. Remember, we are talking about Indo-European cultures, not just European cultures. At least some Indo-Europeans still left a remnant of a caste system.

Reich attempts to be politically correct so he tries to emphasize everyone is "mixed". I agree but that doesn't remove Kris Kristiansen's "elephant in the room". It's hard to miss the correlation of West Eurasian ancestry (increases as you go down the chart) with upper caste layers.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/d2xhb37so9ns3vx/Reich_Caste_System.jpg?dl=0

Feudalism? It's probably a toned down version of an ancient Indo-European societal construct.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/dz7uam1pdjhp960/Feudalism_Caste_System.jpg?dl=0

Don't get me wrong. I'm not for unequal opportunity. It's really bad. However, what happened happened. My speculation is that disease and climate affected Neolithic Europe and then the steppes people (mostly male driven) stepped in. This involved military-like conflict but after that societal controls were implemented.

Silesian
01-28-2021, 02:22 PM
Remember, we are talking about Indo-European cultures, not just European cultures. At least some Indo-Europeans still left a remnant of a caste system.


The implication of the competition and control is violence, but it is not necessarily event/war/battle driven. It could be a rigid control structure.
........

Don't get me wrong. I'm not for unequal opportunity. It's really bad. However, what happened happened. My speculation is that disease and climate affected Neolithic Europe and then the steppes people (mostly male driven) stepped in. This involved military-like conflict but after that societal controls were implemented.

Well professor Nicholas Kazanas is also looking for a connection between Indian-Sanskrit and Europe. He never mentions skull dimensions or pigmentation(kind of gives me a creepy feel), rather he looks for common practical words in European language and Sanskrit. @ 11 minute mark he points to the discovery of horses, wagons((mostly male driven) stepped in. This involved military-like conflict ). Kind of reminds me of the latest finds in the elite Fatyanovo burials. Could Fatyanovo be the link between L51 and Europe? rhetorical question.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyN0zs_tBRY

rms2
01-28-2021, 04:01 PM
Guess things could change, but the Fatyanovo Y-DNA results thus far have all been R1a. Of course, that's the way things went in Corded Ware in general for several years, but Fatyanovo is a lot smaller in scale than Corded Ware, so there is less room to expect much variation.

Silesian
01-28-2021, 04:42 PM
Bad luck, that is, the spread of Yersinia Pestis, migration from Trypillia mega-settlements in the Balkans/Eastern Europe, to North East Baltic regions.
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2018/12/europes-ancient-proto-cities-may-have.html

Maybe L51 is in and around the Kurgans of Yampil and Kamienka.SNP inference for I11955(GLAV_14_Co) / I11954(GLAV_14_Oss)????
https://indo-european.eu/2020/03/earliest-r1a-z93-from-late-trypillian-in-the-podolian-volhynian-upland/

Location of Yampil and Kamienka ceremonial centres, and barrows of the Yamnaya culture, Corded Ware culture, and Late Eneolithic groups of the Podolia Plateau and adjacent areas. Maybe a possible link for input related to GLAV_14_Co > Polish Kurgan L51* Corded Ware R1a >Early Baltic Corded Ware R1a>Fatyanevo R1a?

rms2
01-28-2021, 06:04 PM
I don't know, but I have a prediction to make.

When the big SGC paper comes out, or any of the upcoming papers rumored to be big news for R1b-L51, I will be busy doing something else - like working for a living - and the thread about it will already have 500 posts in it before I see it.

That's the way it always seems to go.

Dewsloth
01-28-2021, 06:06 PM
I don't know, but I have a prediction to make.

When the big SGC paper comes out, or any of the upcoming papers rumored to be big news for R1b-L51, I will be busy doing something else - like working for a living - and the thread about it will already have 500 posts in it before I see it.

That's the way it always seems to go.

Or, on the day of release, the site could go down for security/maintenance for a couple weeks! :behindsofa::biggrin1:

rms2
01-28-2021, 06:13 PM
Or, on the day of release, the site could go down for security/maintenance for a couple weeks! :behindsofa::biggrin1:

Oh, bite your tongue!

rms2
01-29-2021, 07:20 PM
Whom do we bug to try to encourage the speedier advent of some of these papers?

Really boring around here.

MitchellSince1893
01-30-2021, 07:04 AM
Center of gravity for many of the smaller P312 subclades, and L51 subclade PF7589 is along the south Baltic coast. I would more inclined to go with River skills that expand into coastal sea skills once they get to the Baltic and North Seas. But like I said in a previous post: If a trade network existed along their routes, they didn't need to have strong mariner skills, they just had to barter with or coerce the locals to get them across said body of water. e.g. Dothraki crossing the Narrow Sea.

Amber trade routes from the Baltic in this era had to cross several bodies of water

https://sep.yimg.com/ay/yhst-10406508139399/amber-trade-routes-1.gif


This article from 2003 is ahead of its time in some ways.


At the Polish Lowlands, in the mid of 3rd millennium BC, the Iwno Culture emerged, a syncretic unit that combines traits of Bell Beakers, the Single Grave Culture and to a lesser degree early Únìtice Culture...
The lowland Beaker enclave was part of the north European cultural province stretching from western Jutland across northern Germany as far as Kujawy[Poland] and mainly formed by syncretic groups of Single Grave Culture and Bell Beakers (Fig. 12:2). The transmission of cultural patterns took place chiefly along parallels in this area, while the presence of the Bell Beaker package could have been an effect of transformations within local, late Einzelgrab-kultur . One should not exclude, either, a combination of migrations of small groups of people from the west and a gradual transformation of local structures under their impact...
In Silesia and Little Poland, the emergence of the package was related to the migration of Beaker folk of Danube traditions, whereas in the north, the Beakerization of the Single Grave Culture was an effect of much broader processes of cultural syncretization taking place between the lower Elbe and Vistula rivers... In addition, one can speak of this society’s participation (organization and servicing?) in the distribution of amber and metal among the cultural communities of the Vistula and Oder drainages.



https://www.academia.edu/2022469/Northern_and_Southern_Bell_Beakers_in_Poland?email _work_card=title

I’m not the first to point this out, but I won’t be surprised if ancient L151 is discovered in this SGC south Baltic area. As others have pointed out, we don’t have dna samples from the SGC in this area during 1st half of 3rd millennium BC.

rms2
01-30-2021, 03:16 PM
Probably the best prospect for some really old DF99, DF19, U106, etc., is in that area.

I'd settle for a healthy number of SGC L51s, though.

When, oh when, will the rumored papers appear?

MitchellSince1893
01-30-2021, 08:22 PM
There appears to be a preexisting social/transportation network in the southern Baltic, that later groups could've leveraged.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319881379_Bell_Beakers_and_the_cultural_milieu_of_ north_European_plain/link/59c031b30f7e9b48a29bac95/download


...example of sustained cultural ties extending along the southern Baltic coast involves the supra-regional structure of the Funnel Beaker Culture (Fig. 6). Its significance lies in the relations between two groups recognised in this region: a northern (with its centre on Jutland) and an eastern group (with its major centre in Kujawy) (Kośko 1981, 62). In that period, i.e. in the late 5th and in the course of the 4th millennia cal BC, Pomerania was a place where information was vigorously exchanged. This is reflected in the presence of traits of both groups (Wierzbicki 1999). The region that deserves special attention in this context, is the lower Oder region, where the line of contacts between Jutland and Kujawy crossed with an east-west line of cultural ties, continuing as far as the Paris Basin (Rzepecki 2004,158)...
From the beginning of the 3rd millennium cal BC a stable network of long-range contacts was created. Its beginning is marked by the earliest stage of the Corded Ware Culture known as Pan-European horizon (Buchvaldek 1986; Furholt 2003). It covered all of central Europe, including the route of cultural contacts along the whole southern Baltic coast. Towards the end of the first half of the 3rd millennium cal BC the Single Grave Culture (Hübner 2005) (Fig. 8) reached - along the channels of cultural contacts that were already present - from its centre in Jutland to Mecklenburg, Pomerania and Kujawy (Czebreszuk 2001, 88-116)...Within the framework of the long-range exchange that was organized by the communities of the Single Grave Culture, shortly after 2500 cal BC the first Bell Beaker’s traits appeared. From then on in the area from Jutland in the west to Kujawy in the east, a distinctive node in the pan-European Bell Beaker network took shape referred to as the north group (Czebreszuk 2003).

To get from Jutland to Scandinavia, requires crossing 7-10 miles (11-16km) of open seas. Crossing the English Channel is a 22 miles (35 km) trip.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/75/69/2f/75692f0fce311de4ffd2ef50a10fba94.png?epik=dj0yJnU9 SGdHcjJlTTlzSUJ5alVndG4xd0pSMXVzMEJPa3JxTzEmcD0wJm 49UXJBcVBwNF9yb0RYY0pWR1Y0dEVvZyZ0PUFBQUFBR0FWdlg0

Finn
01-31-2021, 09:40 AM
Don't know if it was already posted here, interesting stuff imo:
https://www.academia.edu/44935289/Genomic_Steppe_ancestry_in_skeletons_from_the_Neol ithic_Single_Grave_Culture_in_Denmark

Finn
01-31-2021, 10:26 AM
There appears to be a preexisting social/transportation network in the southern Baltic, that later groups could've leveraged.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319881379_Bell_Beakers_and_the_cultural_milieu_of_ north_European_plain/link/59c031b30f7e9b48a29bac95/download



To get from Jutland to Scandinavia, requires crossing 7-10 miles (11-16km) of open seas. Crossing the English Channel is a 22 miles (35 km) trip.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/75/69/2f/75692f0fce311de4ffd2ef50a10fba94.png?epik=dj0yJnU9 SGdHcjJlTTlzSUJ5alVndG4xd0pSMXVzMEJPa3JxTzEmcD0wJm 49UXJBcVBwNF9yb0RYY0pWR1Y0dEVvZyZ0PUFBQUFBR0FWdlg0

I would guess is that the spread of Single Grave is from the Mittelelbe-Saale area (Central East Europe) with a radiate to NE Dutch, NW Germany, Jutland.

Bourgeois and Kroon (2017),show a likewise burial tradition:
42970

These are the same area's as where the Bell Beakers later on flourish!
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320362274_The_impact_of_male_burials_on_the_constr uction_of_Corded_Ware_identity_Reconstructing_netw orks_of_information_in_the_3rd_millennium_BC

rms2
01-31-2021, 04:49 PM
Based on the rumors I have heard, from more than one source, I am really looking forward to the upcoming big SGC ancient DNA lalapalooza.

I've heard more, but the most I feel free to say is that SGC is supposed to be chock full of R1b-L51 and loads of Yamnaya DNA.

Could be all bull, however. Never underestimate the power of rumor to disappoint and disappoint spectacularly.

etrusco
01-31-2021, 09:20 PM
Im not really satisfied until I learn where L51 lineage was during the mesolithic and how it began its westerward trajectory in the late neolithic. Tying it to CW, alone, does not answer this. I also want to see more samples from yamnaya hungry to rule out that rought.

R1b L51 is not born in the mesolithic, but likely in late eneolithic/early bronze age (eastern european time)

rms2
01-31-2021, 09:32 PM
What violence are you talking about?

Watch this video. It's well worth your time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi1C1XMYU2Q&fbclid=IwAR0nYBwQxNeI53TF_qeZRZB8g5otVbLT2d19tLFNq TQpnQkNSC5-UX2txg4

alan
02-01-2021, 12:06 AM
I think the developed phase of CW in SE Poland with its archaeological links to Catacomb c. 2500BC coming up as L51-L52 suggests there was a reservoir of L51 in the Ukraine forst steppes, most likely around the Middle Dniester and adjacent areas. It looks like L151 set off from that direction and was in CW by 2800BC if not earlier, possibly heading west in southern Poland and part of it following the Oder to the west end of the Baltic. L52 in Catacomb (a Yamnaya derived culture that spread from the Azov area) seems to have again followed the Dniester route into Poland 300 years later. That all suggest a persistent L51 presence in a location on the Pontic steppe that made using the Dniester route possible. So far, a location in the forest steppe looks much more likely than the southern steppes of Ukraine etc because if it had been you would surely see L51 along the Danube/Balkans in Yamnaya and Catacomb. The only other clue is that L51 was also found in Afansievo. Again indicating a presence the steppe. I am not sure what the most up to date thinking about the origins of Afansievo is. I know its been redated so it doesnt look any older than Yamnaya. Is it just thought a Yamnaya variant now? Also where in the European steppe are Afansievo's roots thought to be or is that still unknown?

alan
02-01-2021, 12:40 AM
Based on the rumors I have heard, from more than one source, I am really looking forward to the upcoming big SGC ancient DNA lalapalooza.

I've heard more, but the most I feel free to say is that SGC is supposed to be chock full of R1b-L51 and loads of Yamnaya DNA.

Could be all bull, however. Never underestimate the power of rumor to disappoint and disappoint spectacularly.

Dutch, Danish or both?

jdean
02-01-2021, 12:45 AM
Dutch, Danish or both?

Since the soil in Holland is apparently particularly harsh on aDNA I suspect primarily Denmark.

Dieu
02-01-2021, 01:00 AM
Based on the rumors I have heard, from more than one source, I am really looking forward to the upcoming big SGC ancient DNA lalapalooza.

I've heard more, but the most I feel free to say is that SGC is supposed to be chock full of R1b-L51 and loads of Yamnaya DNA.

Could be all bull, however. Never underestimate the power of rumor to disappoint and disappoint spectacularly.

Well L51 is no L151 or even L52. They could be like the polish corded wares: dead end subclades. I'm not sure about single grave being the only corded ware reservoir of L151 descendant, maybe L151 appears the first time in single grave horizon (but it could also be born south of it) then it quickly expand into the whole western corded ware complex (not just protruding foot beaker) and later bell beaker.

TigerMW
02-01-2021, 01:23 AM
Based on the rumors I have heard, from more than one source, I am really looking forward to the upcoming big SGC ancient DNA lalapalooza.

I've heard more, but the most I feel free to say is that SGC is supposed to be chock full of R1b-L51 and loads of Yamnaya DNA.

Could be all bull, however. Never underestimate the power of rumor to disappoint and disappoint spectacularly.

I certainly hope the rumor is more than a rumor or it only does more harm to informed opinions.

I am also worried there is an over-hyped expectation related to timing and the phylogeny. As I have explained what is really important is a logical linkage of L51>P310>L151.

In reality L51+ alone is almost a moot point. The 3000 BC R-P310/L52 in Mongolia makes MRCAs for both R-L51 and R-P310 very high odds to be from the Steppes. This is already known and fairly conclusive (IMO).

If we think THE P310>L151 lineage is part of the CWC to SGC auDNA vector then R-L51* in SGC is not conclusive. We need to see R-P310* or R-L151* (or P312+) in SGC prior to the 2700 BC R-L151* down in Switzerland. If we don’t see this with SGC “L51” types we still have the evidence for a Corded Ware route but we don’t have the Y DNA logical linkage to the Dutch Bell Beaker model (which nicely explained P312 all over West Europe.) The SGC>Dutch BBC model with early L151 also puts to bed the Basque driven anomalies and Iberian BBC anomalies.

Let’s remember the focus is on early (now 3200-2700 BC) R-L151. All of R-P312 and R-U106 descend from the R-L151 MRCA and this amounts 95% of R1b in West and Central Europe. That’s not the tail. That is the dog.

PS. I’d love to see a phylogenetic block break between L151 and L11.

Edit: Dieu, I didn’t see your reply when I started we are on the same track. It is not just about L51 in SGC but what types and when.

alan
02-01-2021, 01:01 PM
It already is clear that there was some L151 in CW and related cultures. Although it will be very nice to find a place where its densest (and it does appear that Single Grave is going to be the answer), this will inevitably throw us back onto the question of where was L151 prior to single grave if indeed L151 is old enough. Yfull puts L151 MRCA at 2800BC which to date hasnt been contradicted by ancient DNA yet though many suspect yfull dates are 10% or so too young so there is a chance it did exist slightly before CW existed. That of course is related into the whole question of how exactly CW formed which is still somewhat debated though the general picture is known. Whether its very early L151 or late L51 that would soon lead to L51, nobody is going to be entirely happy until its pre-CW location is established. I think the early location has not yet been established simply because of totally insufficient sampling of Ukraine and to a lesser extent neigbouring bits of SW Russia c. 4000-2800BC. There are a ton of cultures and local variants of culture in that pontic steppe and forest steppe area across that period that have barely been sampled at all. Its going to take a large sample to sort it out. If I had to narrow it down though, I suspect the section of L51 leading to L151 was located off the dry open steppe zone somewhat upstream in the forest steppe around the key period c. 3300-2800BC. I strongly suspect Dniester forest steppe Yamnaya or somewhere nearby. In pre-Yamnaya times I have no idea at all because its not clear as yet what Yamnaya was in its entirety. Part of Yamanaya was a huge Z2103 expansion but that isnt going to be the whole story.

rms2
02-01-2021, 06:51 PM
Well L51 is no L151 or even L52. They could be like the polish corded wares: dead end subclades. I'm not sure about single grave being the only corded ware reservoir of L151 descendant, maybe L151 appears the first time in single grave horizon (but it could also be born south of it) then it quickly expand into the whole western corded ware complex (not just protruding foot beaker) and later bell beaker.

Please understand that I am using L51 in this context as the catch-all for it and its subclades. I wasn't trying to pinpoint L51* and nothing else. I think I have made that clear elsewhere in this thread and in other places here at Anthrogenica.

The point is finding steppe-derived R1b-L23 that is not Z2103 but belongs to the other major L23+ branch, the one that came to be dominant in central and western Europe.

So, what this is about is finding R1b-L51, which is a rubric or moniker for L51 and all its downstream clades that are old enough to pop up in ancient remains of the Corded Ware period.

Sorry, but there are some posts that leave me shaking my head in disbelief and swearing under my breath. Yours above and the one that followed it are two of that type.

Guess the fault lies with me. Maybe I have not made what I am talking about clear enough, although I would swear I've repeated it over and over again.

I was not intending to engage in the precisely-what-specific-subclades-will-be-found-in-Corded-Ware guessing game. I was talking about an entire class or branch of R1b-L23, the not-Z2103 branch.

rms2
02-01-2021, 07:03 PM
Take a gander at the post that began this thread (https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?20310-L51-into-Europe-West-of-the-Steppe-Via-Corded-Ware&p=666558&viewfull=1#post666558) to see what I meant and mean by "L51".


Hey! There's a Z2103 subforum but no L51 subforum. Why is that? We seem to be the redheaded stepchild of L23 (which is okay, I guess). Anyway, I guess we do have a bunch of downstream sub-fora, so one shouldn't complain.

Anyway, anyone care to discuss R1b-L51 in Corded Ware, which was apparently the primary vehicle of Indo-European language and culture into central and western Europe? Also, it looks like Kurgan Bell Beaker really was just Corded Ware 2.0, and had little or nothing to do with its confusing and erroneous supposed association with what is called early Iberian Bell Beaker.

I've been assembling a lot of notes and quotes lately on Corded Ware and its origins from various authors. Some of them were way ahead of the curve and were spectacularly right, but others were embarrassingly wrong.

Ancient dna has really straightened things out, but we still have a ways to go.

So, how did Corded Ware come into being? Where did the L51 in it come from? BTW, by L51 I mean it and everything downstream of it old enough to be involved. I personally am not that interested in plotting exactly which SNP appeared where and when. Let's just refer to L51. When they find some continental L21, then I'll get all excited.

Meanwhile, go for it. Post your wildest ideas. This is for fun anyway.

You see, R1b-Z2103 is not all that mysterious. It has been irrevocably tied to Yamnaya.

The mystery is the "other half" of L23 (bigger than half, really): the R1b-L51 half.

Sure, there it is in Beaker, but Beaker is too late really. Corded Ware is a better catch until we find some R1b-L51 in Yamnaya or on the Eneolithic steppe.

Silesian
02-01-2021, 07:32 PM
Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what to expect.

Dieu
02-01-2021, 07:53 PM
Please understand that I am using L51 in this context as the catch-all for it and its subclades. I wasn't trying to pinpoint L51* and nothing else. I think I have made that clear elsewhere in this thread and in other places here at Anthrogenica.

The point is finding steppe-derived R1b-L23 that is not Z2103 but belongs to the other major L23+ branch, the one that came to be dominant in central and western Europe.

So, what this is about is finding R1b-L51, which is a rubric or moniker for L51 and all its downstream clades that are old enough to pop up in ancient remains of the Corded Ware period.

Sorry, but there are some posts that leave me shaking my head in disbelief and swearing under my breath. Yours above and the one that followed it are two of that type.

Guess the fault lies with me. Maybe I have not made what I am talking about clear enough, although I would swear I've repeated it over and over again.

I was not intending to engage in the precisely-what-specific-subclades-will-be-found-in-Corded-Ware guessing game. I was talking about an entire class or branch of R1b-L23, the not-Z2103 branch.

Yes I know you weren't to pinpoint just L51* but my point is still valid, Finding just L51 is not enough. if we don't find at least a sample with mutations linked to L151 closely related to L151 coalescence time, the paper would't make us learn much than what we already knew with the Polish corded wares L52 samples. Finding L151 would be like a proof that Single grave could be closely related to the "steppes" bell beaker expansion.

And the same as you, there are some posts that leave me shaking my head in disbelief and swearing under my breath. Yours above and the one that followed it are two of that type.

Guess the fault lies with me. Maybe some people can't understand that I am not spending my life watching and remembering what Rms2 wrote in the past.

rms2
02-01-2021, 08:21 PM
. . . Maybe some people can't understand that I am not spending my life watching and remembering what Rms2 wrote in the past.

What rms2 wrote in the OP of this very thread and repeated several times since - not exactly the remote past.

Your screen name implies omniscience, so knowledge of what L51 means in the context of this thread is not really too much to hope for.

You could have made your post about subclades downstream of L51 without quoting me, then I would not have thought it was intended as correction directed my way (erroneous correction, since I had already made clear what I meant by "L51").

rms2
02-01-2021, 08:48 PM
Personally, I think finding in SGC any kind of R1b-L51 (meaning L51 and all its subclades that are old enough), especially if it predates Beaker, will be extremely informative, even if L51 itself is as far as the researchers can get.

BTW, who here, when, for example, he or she refers to "P312", means just specifically P312* and nothing else, to the exclusion of any and all downstream clades?

So, isn't the way I am using "L51" in this thread pretty much common practice?

TigerMW
02-01-2021, 11:25 PM
Personally, I think finding in SGC any kind of R1b-L51 (meaning L51 and all its subclades that are old enough), especially if it predates Beaker, will be extremely informative, even if L51 itself is as far as the researchers can get.New information is good but the timing (radio-carbon dating)and the subclade of L51 is important. As I've tried to explain prior, if the we all we get are R1b-L51* (L51+ P310-) or R1b-L51 unknown (L51+ no calls downstream) finds that's not really that impactful since we know that is a dead-end trail and R1b-P310 has already been found in Afansievo.



BTW, who here, when, for example, he or she refers to "P312", means just specifically P312* and nothing else, to the exclusion of any and all downstream clades?
I try to take care to use the asterisk when I mean the paragroup of a subclade and not the whole subclade.



So, isn't the way I am using "L51" in this thread pretty much common practice? I understand and have always understood you mean this as I would mean it, short hand for the R1b-L51 subclade which would include every descending subclade, like like L21, DF13, L513, etc. of which there are thousands. I think it is common practice to use this short hand.

I have not intended to say anyone is wrong about the importance of R1b-L51 or that anyone misapplied normal terminology.

I have definitely intended to make a point to the broader audience about the importance of R1b-P310>L151. This is the big kahuna of West and Central Europe. R1b-P310>L151>P312 is a very pertinent element of it. Since R1b-P312 is so prevalent in the North/East/Central Bell Beaker people (or steppe Beakers whatever we want to call them). Eurogenes says it like this.

- the R1b-P312 lineages in the Dutch and British Beakers probably derive from Single Grave R1b-P312, which suggests that R1b-P312 was common among some clans within the Corded Ware culture

Eurogenes has nicely outlined a cline of autosomal DNA that goes east to west from Yamanaya, to Proto-Corded Ware, to Single Grave, and finally to the North/East/Central Bell Beakers.
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2019/01/single-grave-bell-beakers.html

This aligns nicely with the Dutch model of Bell Beaker expansion so this model can be nicely tested by R1b ancient finds but to be very strong evidence to support the Dutch Model we need to see (hopefully) some of the following SNPs at an early time frame, which would be 2700 BC or earlier which is our Aesch, Switzerland guy to the south. Aesch is not the place the Dutch model chooses as the launch for Bell Beakers. It is also not the Single Grave variant of Corded Ware

Here are key SNPs to look for in the lineage of R1b-P310 on down.

P310,
L52,
P311
CTS10353,
CTS7650

to

L151,
L11

to

R1b-L151's descending branch SNPs, which make up 95% of all R1b subclades in West and Central Europe. The critical subclade is R1b-P312.

Ironically, an early (3000 BC) R1b-L51* find West Europe might strangely give credence of a movement from the west, rather than the east, at least for this Y DNA. Y DNA and autosomal DNA do not always align well. We have that R1b-L51>P310* way out in Mongolia. He had P310+ P311+ L52+, therefore, the ballgame is from this point on down (descendants-wise). Anything upstream is okay and still nice news but not very conclusive.

As of our current knowledge, we estimate R1b-L51's TMRCA at 3700 BC. He is still a missing link and we can't really say he didn't come from the west. R1b-P310's TMRCA is 5 SNPs younger than L51's so we are cornering the R1b-P310 MRCA nicely with the Mongolian sample(cousin) at 3000 BC and the R1b-L151(son) Swiss sample at 2700 BC.

jdean
02-01-2021, 11:36 PM
Personally, I think finding in SGC any kind of R1b-L51 (meaning L51 and all its subclades that are old enough), especially if it predates Beaker, will be extremely informative, even if L51 itself is as far as the researchers can get.

BTW, who here, when, for example, he or she refers to "P312", means just specifically P312* and nothing else, to the exclusion of any and all downstream clades?

So, isn't the way I am using "L51" in this thread pretty much common practice?

Exactly, surely nobody who post here (at least) thinks in such terms now and even when talking about aDNA the probability of somebody actually digging up Mr P312, L51 etc (and then DNA testing them) must be microscopic, and even in the unlikely event that this has happened (or will) none of us will be able to tell from the kind of results you get from moldy old DNA anyway : )))

Dieu
02-01-2021, 11:56 PM
Personally, I think finding in SGC any kind of R1b-L51 (meaning L51 and all its subclades that are old enough), especially if it predates Beaker, will be extremely informative, even if L51 itself is as far as the researchers can get.

BTW, who here, when, for example, he or she refers to "P312", means just specifically P312* and nothing else, to the exclusion of any and all downstream clades?

So, isn't the way I am using "L51" in this thread pretty much common practice?

Yes but in the case of single grave, finding L51 like Tiger explained very well is not enough (it's not like in the case of yamnaya where just L51 on itself or any downstreams clades could be huge), Single graves samples need to be at least L151 (or to be really precise having some positives snps leading to the L151 clade). Saying finding L51 in single graves will be extremly informative is like saying finding L23 in Yamnaya will be extremly informative. We already know there are L51 samples in corded ware so finding L51 in single grave is no big deal imo.

jdean
02-02-2021, 12:06 AM
Yes but in the case of single grave, finding L51 like Tiger explained very well is not enough (it's not like in the case of yamnaya where just L51 on itself or any downstreams clades could be huge), Single graves samples need to be at least L151 (or to be really precise having some positives snps leading to the L151 clade). Saying finding L51 in single graves will be extremly informative is like saying finding L23 in Yamnaya will be extremly informative. We already know there are L51 samples in corded ware so finding L51 in single grave is no big deal imo.

Maybe but not what I was talking about.

sheepslayer
02-02-2021, 12:08 AM
Yes but in the case of single grave, finding L51 like Tiger explained very well is not enough (it's not like in the case of yamnaya where just L51 on itself or any downstreams clades could be huge), Single graves samples need to be at least L151 (or to be really precise having some positives snps leading to the L151 clade). Saying finding L51 in single graves will be extremly informative is like saying finding L23 in Yamnaya will be extremly informative. We already know there are L51 samples in corded ware so finding L51 in single grave is no big deal imo.

If we get a good sample of Einzelgrab genomes entirely sans L51 we'll have learned that this isn't the place to look. But if we end up with one or two that are merely positive for that terrible archaic outdated L51, we'll know we had a pretty good idea. The corded ware horizon probably expressed a large variety of R1b and seeing how deep the phylogenetic splits run is important too

Dieu
02-02-2021, 12:11 AM
Maybe but not what I was talking about.

I was quoting rms2, yeah i understand your point and I agree, we will never found the first humain being L151 or P312 positive, Generally with adna you just get dead branch.

jdean
02-02-2021, 12:17 AM
I was quoting rms2, yeah i understand your point and I agree, we will never found the first humain being L151 or P312 positive, Generally with adna you just get dead branch.

Whoops, sorry : )

TigerMW
02-02-2021, 01:44 AM
... As I've tried to explain prior, if the we all we get are R1b-L51* (L51+ P310-) or R1b-L51 unknown (L51+ no calls downstream) finds that's not really that impactful since we know that is a dead-end trail and R1b-P310 has already been found in Afansievo....

Here are key SNPs to look for in the lineage of R1b-P310 on down.

P310,
L52,
P311
CTS10353,
CTS7650

to

L151,
L11

to

R1b-L151's descending branch SNPs, which make up 95% of all R1b subclades in West and Central Europe. The critical subclade is R1b-P312.

...
R1b-P310's TMRCA is 5 SNPs younger than L51's so we are cornering the R1b-P310 MRCA nicely with the Mongolian sample(cousin) at 3000 BC and the R1b-L151(son) Swiss sample at 2700 BC.
I want to be clear I'm recommending looking at the phylogeny, timing and geography together. This is how we corner or box in where a subclade launched from or moved from.

It's completely true almost all really ancient Y DNA finds will be "dead-end trails". However, the length of the "trail" is a critical consideration. That's why I count SNPs in phylogenetic blocks. They are relevant to timing and proximity to the origin or launch points.

Since R1b-L51's TMRCA is about 3700 BC that leaves probably at least 700 years until the Single Grave. That's a long time for people in a mobile society to cross large geographies.

However, R1b-P310 MRCA is at least five SNPs later and R1b-L151's MRCA two SNPs later than that. Finding any P310+ person in SGC earlier than the P310+ (also L151+) person at Aesch would be big in my opinion. It would be even bigger to find an L151+ person in SGC in that timeframe. It would be golden to find any P312+ person in this general timeframe (2900-2600 BC).

Again, my points relate to the specific challenge of how the R1b-P310 people or R1b-L151 people came into SGC and bore R1b-P312 - if that's what really happened. I think that showing that puts an end to the early (pre-2500 BC) Iberian Bell Beaker and the Mediterranean/Stelae route thinking. It's a R1b-P312 (and L151 before it) launch points discussion.

rms2
02-02-2021, 01:06 PM
Yes but in the case of single grave, finding L51 like Tiger explained very well is not enough (it's not like in the case of yamnaya where just L51 on itself or any downstreams clades could be huge), Single graves samples need to be at least L151 (or to be really precise having some positives snps leading to the L151 clade).

Really? Finding L51 in SGC is not enough?

I think it is. Of course, we want more. I'd be thrilled if P312 and especially L21 were found in it. But L51 would not only be enough, it would be absolutely wonderful.

If and when the rumored big SGC paper comes out, if it has L51 in it - some kind of L51, any kind of L51 - I for one will celebrate and certainly not complain that the subclades aren't refined enough.



Saying finding L51 in single graves will be extremly informative is like saying finding L23 in Yamnaya will be extremly informative. We already know there are L51 samples in corded ware so finding L51 in single grave is no big deal imo.

Finding L23 in Yamnaya was informative when no one yet knew to what haplogroups Yamnaya belonged. In fact, it's still informative, because it implies that L51 had a Yamnaya origin, or at least a steppe origin.

Finding L51 in SGC right now would be extremely informative, because SGC is still relatively unexplored, and we're wondering where L51 came from and how it became so big in central and western Europe.

Again, by "L51" I mean it and all its downstream subclades that are old enough to have been present in Corded Ware.

Please don't misunderstand me. I'm all for getting as far up the phylogenetic tree into the branches and twigs with ancient remains as we can.

But L51 in the context of this thread means all of L51 that was old enough to have been around at the time. I'd be thrilled if we got some SGC and the researchers could squeeze L51 out of it and nothing more. I want more, but I'll take what I can get.

rms2
02-02-2021, 01:17 PM
I want to be clear I'm recommending looking at the phylogeny, timing and geography together. This is how we corner or box in where a subclade launched from or moved from . . .



Perfectly true, but in this thread I was trying to avoid the pinpoint-the-specific-SNP shell game.

I meant it to be about L51 as an entire major division of R1b-L23: it and all its subclades old enough to have been around.

If you all want to talk about this or that specific SNP beyond L51 and the possibility that it will be found in SGC, do me a favor and don't quote me and act as if you are correcting me and bringing me up to speed on stuff I already know and have known for a long time (along with probably most of the other people here, especially the regulars).

My intent for this thread was that it serve as a means to discuss the likelihood that Corded Ware was the primary vehicle for the initial spread of L51 (it and all its subclades that are old enough) into central and western Europe, not to quibble about how far up the R1b tree beyond L51 CW was.

Dieu
02-02-2021, 04:38 PM
If we get a good sample of Einzelgrab genomes entirely sans L51 we'll have learned that this isn't the place to look. But if we end up with one or two that are merely positive for that terrible archaic outdated L51, we'll know we had a pretty good idea. The corded ware horizon probably expressed a large variety of R1b and seeing how deep the phylogenetic splits run is important too

Finding L23 and the "steppes" component in Yamnaya back in 2015 was super huge, can hardly beat that. But finding L23 and steppes component in new Yamnaya samples in 2021 you're like "ok nice to see new ancient remains being dna analysed but there is not really anything new under the sun".
And no matter what we find in SGC, I will be happy when the study comes out but it might not be super informative about the road from L51 to L151. We'll see

Dieu
02-02-2021, 04:41 PM
.

My intent for this thread was that it serve as a means to discuss the likelihood that Corded Ware was the primary vehicle for the initial spread of L51 (it and all its subclades that are old enough) into central and western Europe, not to quibble about how far up the R1b tree beyond L51 CW was.

We already have L51 samples from corded ware so your point is already proven in my opinion.

rms2
02-02-2021, 05:02 PM
We already have L51 samples from corded ware so your point is already proven in my opinion.

Not in Single Grave Corded Ware, and we have only a few overall that predate Beaker.

One of those (Aesch25) is R1b-L151, so I guess we're in good shape.

For purposes of this thread, he falls into the L51 category (L51 and any of its subclades old enough to have been in Corded Ware).

TigerMW
02-02-2021, 05:08 PM
Perfectly true, but in this thread I was trying to avoid the pinpoint-the-specific-SNP shell game.

I meant it to be about L51 as an entire major division of R1b-L23: it and all its subclades old enough to have been around.
I understood and think this is a fine topic, especially when you initiated this topic back in May 2020, when we knew less. Thank you for starting it. I understand the desire to not overdo the specific SNPs. They are important but I get that the general intention you had for this thread was general.


If you all want to talk about this or that specific SNP beyond L51 and the possibility that it will be found in SGC, do me a favor and don't quote me and act as if you are correcting me and bringing me up to speed on stuff I already know and have known for a long time (along with probably most of the other people here, especially the regulars).
I emboldened your statement implying that I "act as if you are correcting me". I know you know the tree and the issues. I was worried you might be sensitive which is why I posted the below yesterday. I even embolded the second sentence below to make it clear this my points are for the "broader audience", not you.


I have not intended to say anyone is wrong about the importance of R1b-L51 or that anyone misapplied normal terminology.

I have definitely intended to make a point to the broader audience about the importance of R1b-P310>L151


My intent for this thread was that it serve as a means to discuss the likelihood that Corded Ware was the primary vehicle for the initial spread of L51 (it and all its subclades that are old enough) into central and western Europe, not to quibble about how far up the R1b tree beyond L51 CW was.
That's good. In addition I suggest understanding how L51 became part of Corded Ware involves understanding R1b- L51's origin, which occurred about 3700 BC. I think it is likely pre-CW and pre-Yamnaya. Some people would argue it comes from Anatolia or the the Caucasus rather than the Steppes. This makes a difference to those who believe in a southern (non-CWC) route. As you know, I don't. I think it is likely to find R1b-L51 someday in the Steppes, maybe even far to the north.

From post #1 (May 2020) of this thread:
...
Anyway, anyone care to discuss R1b-L51 in Corded Ware, which was apparently the primary vehicle of Indo-European language and culture into central and western Europe? Also, it looks like Kurgan Bell Beaker really was just Corded Ware 2.0, and had little or nothing to do with its confusing and erroneous supposed association with what is called early Iberian Bell Beaker.
I agree with your original post consideration of CWC to Kurgan BBC and that Kurgan BBC has little to do with early Iberian Bell Beaker (which I emboldened). I just thought we were at a natural point to go for it since it is in your original post and Eurogenes has put a good case forward. Resolving this will be cause us to look below R1b-L51 down at the R1b-P310>L151>P312 bread crumb trail.

From post #1 of this thread:
...
Meanwhile, go for it. Post your wildest ideas. This is for fun anyway.
I understood and this is partially why I brought up the L51 Mediterranean or Stelae route theory to the Pyrenees that I have dealt with on other forums but have to admit is not completely dead yet. It's for fun, while we are waiting for more data.

alan
02-02-2021, 07:19 PM
Personally, I think finding in SGC any kind of R1b-L51 (meaning L51 and all its subclades that are old enough), especially if it predates Beaker, will be extremely informative, even if L51 itself is as far as the researchers can get.

BTW, who here, when, for example, he or she refers to "P312", means just specifically P312* and nothing else, to the exclusion of any and all downstream clades?

So, isn't the way I am using "L51" in this thread pretty much common practice?

Yeah and the TMRCA age of L151 according to yfull makes it borderline as to whether L151 existed in say 2900BC or whether it might just be a particular L51 line on its way to L151. But strangely yfull doesnt include a formation age. As many L151 lines may not have survived, it would be nice to have both the TMRCA and formation estimate dates to see if there is much difference between them or not. I think the difference between the two figs can tell us something about a phase of its history. Not sure why they have omitted formation date for L151. But there seemed to be a lot of small L151xU106xP312 etc that focused on the Baltic last time I looked (admittedly a good while ago).

It'd also be very interesting if an L151 or any L51 is in the earliest single graves. From memory is Denmark single grave not thought to start about 2800BC, almost the same as Dutch? Not quite as early as some further east. There could be a bit of nuance and interesting detail in how the various CW related groups came into being. If single grave throws up L151 then that will also make it extremely likely that the Dutch model for P312 bell beaker is correct. P312 perhaps being the part of L151 that went furthest west in single grave.

Then as for the pre-CW story of L51, that would be the final missing link in the chain needed. Certainly its likely that the pre-CW story of L51 is basically part of the story of how CW came into being. I think that relates to that zone where forest steppe Yamnaya, GAC and CW meet, somwhere on the routes between western Ukraine and southern Poland.

alan
02-02-2021, 07:25 PM
I hope its all resolved soon as my brain is starting to struggle to hold all the info together because there is so much of it and there are long gaps between big ancient DNA reports.

Dieu
02-02-2021, 07:45 PM
Yeah and the TMRCA age of L151 according to yfull makes it borderline as to whether L151 existed in say 2900BC or whether it might just be a particular L51 line on its way to L151. But strangely yfull doesnt include a formation age. As many L151 lines may not have survived, it would be nice to have both the TMRCA and formation estimate dates to see if there is much difference between them or not. I think the difference between the two figs can tell us something about a phase of its history. Not sure why they have omitted formation date for L151. But there seemed to be a lot of small L151xU106xP312 etc that focused on the Baltic last time I looked (admittedly a good while ago).

It'd also be very interesting if an L151 or any L51 is in the earliest single graves. From memory is Denmark single grave not thought to start about 2800BC, almost the same as Dutch? Not quite as early as some further east. There could be a bit of nuance and interesting detail in how the various CW related groups came into being. If single grave throws up L151 then that will also make it extremely likely that the Dutch model for P312 bell beaker is correct. P312 perhaps being the part of L151 that went furthest west in single grave.

Then as for the pre-CW story of L51, that would be the final missing link in the chain needed. Certainly its likely that the pre-CW story of L51 is basically part of the story of how CW came into being. I think that relates to that zone where forest steppe Yamnaya, GAC and CW meet, somwhere on the routes between western Ukraine and southern Poland.


L151 formed in 2021 according to Yfull, who are the proud parents ?

rms2
02-02-2021, 08:05 PM
Yeah and the TMRCA age of L151 according to yfull makes it borderline as to whether L151 existed in say 2900BC or whether it might just be a particular L51 line on its way to L151. But strangely yfull doesnt include a formation age. As many L151 lines may not have survived, it would be nice to have both the TMRCA and formation estimate dates to see if there is much difference between them or not. I think the difference between the two figs can tell us something about a phase of its history. Not sure why they have omitted formation date for L151. But there seemed to be a lot of small L151xU106xP312 etc that focused on the Baltic last time I looked (admittedly a good while ago).

It'd also be very interesting if an L151 or any L51 is in the earliest single graves. From memory is Denmark single grave not thought to start about 2800BC, almost the same as Dutch? Not quite as early as some further east. There could be a bit of nuance and interesting detail in how the various CW related groups came into being. If single grave throws up L151 then that will also make it extremely likely that the Dutch model for P312 bell beaker is correct. P312 perhaps being the part of L151 that went furthest west in single grave.

Then as for the pre-CW story of L51, that would be the final missing link in the chain needed. Certainly its likely that the pre-CW story of L51 is basically part of the story of how CW came into being. I think that relates to that zone where forest steppe Yamnaya, GAC and CW meet, somwhere on the routes between western Ukraine and southern Poland.

Two of the oldest Corded Ware R1b-L51 skeletons are from Switzerland: MX304 (Auvernier) and Aesch25 (Aesch).

MX304 is R1b-L52 (P310) and Aesch25 is R1b-L151.

The former dates to 2866-2601 BC (midpoint about 2734 BC) and the latter to 2864-2501 BC (midpoint about 2682 BC).

It would be nice to get some that are even older, but those two are old enough to silence any claims that they were really just Beaker.

rms2
02-02-2021, 08:33 PM
Two of the oldest Corded Ware R1b-L51 skeletons are from Switzerland: MX304 (Auvernier) and Aesch25 (Aesch).

MX304 is R1b-L52 (P310) and Aesch25 is R1b-L151.

The former dates to 2866-2601 BC (midpoint about 2734 BC) and the latter to 2864-2501 BC (midpoint about 2682 BC).

It would be nice to get some that are even older, but those two are old enough to silence any claims that they were really just Beaker.

Oh, and Aesch25 was really loaded with Yamnaya DNA, even for Corded Ware: about 80%.

alan
02-03-2021, 10:00 AM
Two of the oldest Corded Ware R1b-L51 skeletons are from Switzerland: MX304 (Auvernier) and Aesch25 (Aesch).

MX304 is R1b-L52 (P310) and Aesch25 is R1b-L151.

The former dates to 2866-2601 BC (midpoint about 2734 BC) and the latter to 2864-2501 BC (midpoint about 2682 BC).

It would be nice to get some that are even older, but those two are old enough to silence any claims that they were really just Beaker.

yeah its definitely proven beyond any doubt that L151 was in CW well before steppe bell beaker existed. I've half forgotten but is there not also a Czech CW L151 or even P312 from around 2700BC?

razyn
02-03-2021, 10:51 AM
Has anybody here been checking Eurogenes since Jan. 27th? Davidski mentioned the rumored Volosovo/Volga ancient R1b again, on that date. And I believe his last comment here was about BB maritime skills, a couple days before that. (May be mistaken about that.) He also mentioned those R1b rumors on the first Comment under that post; but as usual it deteriorated into squabbling among several guys who know everything, except manners. They don't seem too interested in implied migratory routes, unless those involve the Indus Valley or PIE origins.

rms2
02-03-2021, 12:48 PM
yeah its definitely proven beyond any doubt that L151 was in CW well before steppe bell beaker existed. I've half forgotten but is there not also a Czech CW L151 or even P312 from around 2700BC?

Rumors, but nothing confirmed just yet.

rms2
02-03-2021, 12:53 PM
Has anybody here been checking Eurogenes since Jan. 27th? Davidski mentioned the rumored Volosovo/Volga ancient R1b again, on that date. And I believe his last comment here was about BB maritime skills, a couple days before that. (May be mistaken about that.) He also mentioned those R1b rumors on the first Comment under that post; but as usual it deteriorated into squabbling among several guys who know everything, except manners. They don't seem too interested in implied migratory routes, unless those involve the Indus Valley or PIE origins.

Saw the bit about Volosovo. Don't know what to make of it exactly. Apparently they are mostly EHG but shifted toward WHG, which I guess means eastern with a little shot of WHG.

The Volosovo guys don't have steppe DNA, but they could date to a time before anyone anywhere had the mix known as steppe DNA. We'll have to wait and see. I understand at least one is Q1a, not R1b.

I've heard rumors of much more than that to come, not just from SGC, but time keeps fleeting away, and rumors aren't all that comforting until at least some of them start to bear fruit.

razyn
02-03-2021, 12:57 PM
The Volosovo guys don't have steppe DNA...

Well, so it has been rumored.

I'd just like to see the damn paper.

rms2
02-03-2021, 12:58 PM
Well, so it has been rumored.

I'd just like to see the damn paper.

Another rumor I heard about it is that R1a is also present.

Finn
02-03-2021, 01:25 PM
yeah its definitely proven beyond any doubt that L151 was in CW well before steppe bell beaker existed. I've half forgotten but is there not also a Czech CW L151 or even P312 from around 2700BC?


If I remember it wel de Corded Ware more specific Single Grave (range North Dutch-NW Germany-Jutland) is due to a (Steppe) influx from 2850-2800 BC.
When we got older L51 samples from that room then it's going to be more complicated....

Finn
02-03-2021, 01:42 PM
Seen the place of Volsovo this HG must be close to Baltic/ Narva HG.
The only possible connection between a possible influx of Volsovo HG and the later on Single Grave area is a connection between Ertebølle HG and Volsovo/East Baltic HG.
There was one:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282722481_A_dialogue_across_the_Baltic_on_Narva_an d_Ertebolle_pottery
Nevertheless it's sounds a bit speculative, rumor indeed....this all looks like good old fashioned Kremlin watching :biggrin1:

rms2
02-03-2021, 03:11 PM
Any connection between Volosovo and Ertebølle strikes me as extremely unlikely, especially where R1b is concerned.

The rumored Volosovo paper is the only one of the rumored papers I feel strangely patient about.

Finn
02-03-2021, 03:41 PM
Any connection between Volosovo and Ertebølle strikes me as extremely unlikely, especially where R1b is concerned.

The rumored Volosovo paper is the only one of the rumored papers I feel strangely patient about.

Indeed, that's also my expression, so I guess no strange R(1b)abbits out of particular hats?

rms2
02-03-2021, 04:58 PM
Indeed, that's also my expression, so I guess no strange R(1b)abbits out of particular hats?

I don't think there have been any signs of R1b-M269 anyplace in Mesolithic Europe west of the steppe.

Had there been, especially in Ertebølle, it should have shown up in TRB or in one of the other Neolithic farming cultures.

Finn
02-03-2021, 05:05 PM
I don't think there have been any signs of R1b-M269 anyplace in Mesolithic Europe west of the steppe.

Had there been, especially in Ertebølle, it should have shown up in TRB or in one of the other Neolithic farming cultures.

Indeed, there ia R1b in Blatterhohle MN bur this V88 so off road.....

TigerMW
02-03-2021, 05:24 PM
MX304 is R1b-L52 (P310) and Aesch25 is R1b-L151.
The former dates to 2866-2601 BC (midpoint about 2734 BC) and the latter to 2864-2501 BC (midpoint about 2682 BC).
It would be nice to get some that are even older, but those two are old enough to silence any claims that they were really just Beaker.

Oh, and Aesch25 was really loaded with Yamnaya DNA, even for Corded Ware: about 80%.

its definitely proven beyond any doubt that L151 was in CW well before steppe bell beaker existed.
For the general audience and further discussion, I think the very high percentage of Steppe-like auDNA in Aesch25 is very important for an early (~2700 BC) person.

We would like older P310 or L151 as Aesch25 does not mean the R1b-L51 that lead to L151 came in from Corded Ware.* We know that Corded Ware was a hybrid culture (Kris Kristiansen) and so involved Late Neolithic peoples.

People with high Pontic Steppe-like auDNA could have reached the coast of SE France and then west Switzerland very quickly, especially if they had good waterways skills from the Black Sea.

They didn't leave remnants along the way that I can see though, but then we still have the missing links in the R1b-L51>P310>L151's trail. The SE Poland R1b-L51>P310 is too late (~2300 BC) to be the missing link. Remember, the R1b-L151 MRCA was a single individual who lived ~3000 BC so a massive replacement of Y DNA by R1b-L151 descendants does not need to be a large population at ~3000 BC.

R1b-M269>L23>L51 could have spread all directions from the Black Sea [Removed Varna ref.].

* Notes:
I use the tilde, "~", for approximate. "This symbol (in US English) informally means 'approximately', 'about', or 'around'. I sometimes insert the word "about" but I should be more considerate of date ranges. I'll post more about TMRCA estimates, etc. later.
I try to be open to arguments I hear so will advocate differing positions to better understand various perspectives and evidence. To convince someone, you first have to understand them. People who are supportive of some of these alternative views often follow John Koch and Oliver le Mercier.

[EDIT: struck 'the earliest R1b-M269 I know of is I2181, 4550-4455 BC, in the Varna Culture adjacent to the Black Sea', since the call may be questionable.]

alejandromb92
02-03-2021, 06:08 PM
I don't think there have been any signs of R1b-M269 anyplace in Mesolithic Europe west of the steppe.

Had there been, especially in Ertebølle, it should have shown up in TRB or in one of the other Neolithic farming cultures.

You are right, there are some baltic hunter-gatherers with R1b-P297, but no M269.

rms2
02-03-2021, 06:24 PM
. . .

Of course, the earliest R1b-M269 I know of is I2181, 4550-4455 BC, in the Varna Culture adjacent to the Black Sea . . .

At the risk of sounding behind the times, that one is news to me. What paper did it appear in, and do you have a link?

Did the researchers themselves call it as R1b-M269? Any steppe DNA in it?

Update: I found it in Mathieson et al, "The Genomic History of Southeastern Europe", but the researchers have I2181 listed as R (P280, which is coincident with M207), and that is it.

I thought I remembered an R from Varna; what I hadn't heard was any claim that he was R1b-M269.

Who says he was R1b-M269?

sheepslayer
02-03-2021, 06:27 PM
At the risk of sounding behind the times, that one is news to me. What paper did it appear in, and do you have a link?

Did the researchers themselves call it as R1b-M269? Any steppe DNA in it?

Though I haven't really looked into it, it would appear this sample is from Mathieson et al. 2018. I2181 is skeleton 21 at site Smyadovo according to the Quiles ancient spreadsheet, which I use for filtering ancient samples by haplogroup and date

EDIT: I should clarify that Mr. Quiles only specified R-M343 for this sample

Silesian
02-03-2021, 06:46 PM
For the general audience and further discussion, I think the very high percentage of Steppe-like auDNA in Aesch25 is very important for an early (~2700 BC) person.

Have any BB -R1b from Le Petit Chasseur been released?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262963483_DESIDERI_Jocelyne_Sion_-_Petit-Chasseur_Neolithic-Bronze_Age_Geography_and_Culture_In_Smith_C_Ed_Enc yclopedia_of_Global_Archaeology_New_York_Springer_ Science_Business_Media_2014



We would like older P310 or L151 as Aesch25 does not mean the R1b-L51 that lead to L151 came in from Corded Ware.* We know that Corded Ware was a hybrid culture (Kris Kristiansen) and so involved Late Neolithic peoples.

People with high Pontic Steppe-like auDNA could have reached the coast of SE France and then west Switzerland very quickly, especially if they had good waterways skills from the Black Sea.

They didn't leave remnants along the way that I can see though, but then we still have the missing links in the R1b-L51>P310>L151's trail. The SE Poland R1b-L51>P310 is too late (~2300 BC) to be the missing link. Remember, the R1b-L151 MRCA was a single individual who lived ~3000 BC so a massive replacement of Y DNA by R1b-L151 descendants does not need to be a large population at ~3000 BC.

Of course, the earliest R1b-M269 I know of is I2181, 4550-4455 BC, in the Varna Culture adjacent to the Black Sea. R1b-M269>L23>L51 could have spread all directions from there.

* Notes:
I use the tilde, "~", for approximate. "This symbol (in US English) informally means 'approximately', 'about', or 'around'. I sometimes insert the word "about" but I should be more considerate of date ranges. I'll post more about TMRCA estimates, etc. later.
I try to be open to arguments I hear so will advocate differing positions to better understand various perspectives and evidence. To convince someone, you first have to understand them. People who are supportive of some of these alternative views often follow John Koch and Oliver le Mercier.

North East of Varna culture is The Kernosovskiy idol.
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B2%D 1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BB
North East of Kernosovskiy idol is Khlopkov Bugor, Khvalynsk, Ekaterinovka(still waiting for those 30 samples ), these are some very old burial grounds with the very old branches related to R1b- M269- branches like R1b- V1636 ( I0122 ) and R1b1a1a (P297)I0124, and R1b- Z2109.

rms2
02-03-2021, 06:50 PM
At the risk of sounding behind the times, that one is news to me. What paper did it appear in, and do you have a link?

Did the researchers themselves call it as R1b-M269? Any steppe DNA in it?

Update: I found it in Mathieson et al, "The Genomic History of Southeastern Europe", but the researchers have I2181 listed as R (P280, which is coincident with M207), and that is it.

I thought I remembered an R from Varna; what I hadn't heard was any claim that he was R1b-M269.

Who says he was R1b-M269?

That wouldn't be a Carlos Quiles call, would it?

I found this (https://indo-european.eu/ancient-dna/ancient-y-dna-haplogroups/), but even Quiles has a couple of caveats.



This page hosts analyses of ancient human Y-chromosomal haplogroup inference from next generation sequencing data, performed with software YLeaf v.2. For information on data and interpretation, refer to the manual at Erasmus MC Resources.

As a quick reference on data interpretation, please read papers on ancient DNA damage, such as Dabney, Meyer, and Pääbo (2013), for information of which derivative (and ancestral) SNP calls may be wrong.


Balkan outlier from Smyadovo. Officially reported as of hg. R.

Sample_name: I2181
Hg: NA
Hg_marker: NA
Total_reads: 146894
Valid_markers: 713
QC-score: 0.0
QC-1: 0.0
QC-2: 1.0
QC-3: 1.0
See full output.

Poor coverage. Positive up to CT, then R-P280 (C->G), R1b1a1-CTS9018 (C->T) R1b1a1b-PF6452 (G->A), with no possibility of contrasting if they are due to damage.

Also, negative for P~-PF5867 (G->A, ditto), and P~CTS10081 (C->A).

If that's the source of the M269 call, I'll continue to regard it as R.

rms2
02-03-2021, 07:11 PM
Have any BB -R1b from Le Petit Chasseur been released? . . .

Yes, two (from Olalde et al):

I5755 R1b-M269 2470-1985 BC

I5757 R1b-L151 2470-1985 BC

Both had steppe DNA, and, as I recall without going back and re-reading it, both were in a burial chamber formed of slabs that had been broken off the original stone structure during the destruction phase.

etrusco
02-03-2021, 07:15 PM
That wouldn't be a Carlos Quiles call, would it?

I found this (https://indo-european.eu/ancient-dna/ancient-y-dna-haplogroups/), but even Quiles has a couple of caveats.





If that's the source of the M269 call, I'll continue to regard it as R.

I guess that a guy with a lot of steppe ancestry who came likely from ukraine/western russia and match the well known eneolithic steppe contact with tha balkans and happened to be R how likely is that is not a R1b M269? Maybe he was R1a who knows. Chance that it is R1b V88 are very low to say the least.

rms2
02-03-2021, 07:19 PM
I guess that a guy with a lot of steppe ancestry who came likely from ukraine/western russia and match the well known eneolithic steppe contact with tha balkans and happened to be R how likely is that is not a R1b M269? Maybe he was R1a who knows. Chance that it is R1b V88 are very low to say the least.

Did I2181 have steppe ancestry?

etrusco
02-03-2021, 07:23 PM
Did I2181 have steppe ancestry?

sure. On some genetic forums they said IIRC an equal split between EEF and Steppe. 50 Balkan farmer and 50 steppe eneolithic.
Varna had steppe but in that case he was a male famer taking a steppe bride. He was T1 IIRC

TigerMW
02-03-2021, 07:25 PM
That wouldn't be a Carlos Quiles call, would it?
If that's the source of the M269 call, I'll continue to regard it as R.
To be honest, I didn't write the source in my notes. I thought it was from this forum. I did write Lazaridis in my notes so maybe it was from his twitter.

rms2
02-03-2021, 07:29 PM
sure. On some genetic forums they said IIRC an equal split between EEF and Steppe. 50 Balkan farmer and 50 steppe eneolithic.
Varna had steppe but in that case he was a male famer taking a steppe bride. He was T1 IIRC

Okay. I found it. I2181 had steppe DNA.

This is from page 8 of Mathieson:



In two directly dated individuals from southeastern Europe, one (ANI163) from the Varna I cemetery dated to 4711-4550 BCE and one (I2181) from nearby Smyadovo dated to 4550-4450 BCE, we find far earlier evidence of steppe-related ancestry (Figure 1B,D).

rms2
02-03-2021, 07:31 PM
To be honest, I didn't write the source in my notes. I thought it was from this forum. I did write Lazaridis in my notes so maybe it was from his twitter.

If Lazaridis says I2181 is a confirmed R1b-M269, that's good enough.

It would be nice to know if he said that, though.

etrusco
02-03-2021, 07:36 PM
If Lazaridis says I2181 is a confirmed R1b-M269, that's good enough.

It would be nice to know if he said that, though.

https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1352772293202767874?s=20

rms2
02-03-2021, 07:42 PM
https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1352772293202767874?s=20

Okay, an expression of faith. ;)

I like the "xZ2103" part.

TigerMW
02-03-2021, 07:52 PM
To be honest, I didn't write the source in my notes. I thought it was from this forum. I did write Lazaridis in my notes so maybe it was from his twitter.

Here is what I read. Perhaps I misinterpreted Lazaridis' reply as being diligent when it might have just been off-handed.


Carlos Quiles @cquilesc Replying to @populationgeno1and @iosif_lazaridis
"I2181, Mathieson et al. Nature (2018), Balkans_Chalcolithic_outlier with Steppe ancestry from Smyadovo (4550-4455 calBCE) is *probably* R1b-M269(xZ2103), but no calls for other branches."
4:28 PM · Jan 22, 2021·Twitter Web App

Isosif Lazaridis @isosif_lazaridis Replying to @cquilesc and @populationgeno1
"I believe this is the oldest R-M269 currently known! Based on its coverage it could be ancestral for the two children nodes of R-M269, but no coverage."
6:17 PM · Jan 22, 2021·Twitter Web App

https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1352772293202767874

I emboldened Lazaridis' statement. After rereading it, I think he understood the coverage and agreed (or made) the M269 call. Nevertheless the M269 is a long phylogenetic block so we don't know how closely this guy is related to M269>L23 people.

As a general thought, given our general state of knowledge...
- An earlier L23 sample is more important (to the peopling of Europe) than an earlier M269 call.
- An earlier L151 call or earlier P310 call are more important than an earlier L51 call.
Anything is better than nothing, however.

Silesian
02-03-2021, 08:10 PM
Okay, an expression of faith. ;)

I like the "xZ2103" part.

3300 Mongolian L51 in Afanasievo IMO is as good as genesis of Yamnaya.

rms2
02-03-2021, 08:13 PM
The fact that I2181 had steppe DNA and evidently wasn't Z2103 is something (but not a whole lot). We don't even know if he was derived for L23, so meh. Kind of a squib load.

rms2
02-03-2021, 08:14 PM
3300 Mongolian L51 in Afanasievo IMO is as good as genesis of Yamnaya.

Not too bad, that's true.

TigerMW
02-03-2021, 09:25 PM
3300 Mongolian L51 in Afanasievo IMO is as good as genesis of Yamnaya.
Agreed, and this Afanasievo person was a clear R1b-L51>P310* to boot! This has to be Yamnaya or pre-Yamnaya steppes related. Something big must have been happening 3500-3100 BC to have spin off with P310 go so quickly both to the east west.

TigerMW
02-03-2021, 09:26 PM
People with high Pontic Steppe-like auDNA could have reached the coast of SE France and then west Switzerland very quickly, especially if they had good waterways skills from the Black Sea.

They didn't leave remnants along the way that I can see though, but then we still have the missing links in the R1b-L51>P310>L151's trail.
R1b-M269>L23>L51 could have spread all directions from the Black Sea.
It is also possible that R1b-L51 or R1b-L51>P310 reached SE France without a lot of Steppe-like auDNA.

Here is my graphic/map to depict such a flow.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/fud46d5n3xxuu29/R1b-L51-from_SE_France.pdf?dl=0

Did R1b-L51 meet Early Iberian BBC in SE France then go on up the Rhone to CWC Interaction Zone? with East Bell Beakers being the result?

John Koch (et al) has the "Bell Beaker phenomenom" spreading into SE France (Languedoc) from SW Iberia.

He shows the Paleo-Basque place-name region as Aquitaine across to Languedoc.

Jean Manco says the first metallurgy in France was at Carbrieres and Peret (Languedoc) ~3000 BC.

Early R1b-P312(>DF27) found near Narbonne (Languedoc) ~2400 BC

Travel from Narbonne to Aesch is not that long. Google lists the walk can be done in 18 eight hour days. Of course, there were not bridges, etc. but this is not a big deal for a mobile society. This also follows the Rhone River valley, which is rich in Bell Beaker artifacts.

The "Bell Beaker phenomenom” hits Corded Ware and an East Bell Beaker hybrid culture results. It apparently replaces the western fringes of CWC and expands in all directions.

Aesch and Auvernier could be just early infiltrations of Bell Beaker males. An initial massive replacement of former CWC males was NOT needed since the new East/NW Bell Beakers are R1b-P312, which descended from only a single R1b-L151 individual, who lived ~3000 BC.

I don't see a way to blow this alternative up completely at this point. Need some early P310, P310>L151 somewhere or the earliest P312 in CWC.

------------------------

I will quit calling the new hybrid East/Northwest Bell Beakers as "steppe" or "Kurgan" Bell Beakers for the time being. They used cists along the Atlantic. They have "steppe" auDNA but they have specific types of Neolithic DNA too. Corded Ware itself was a hybrid culture and therefore deserved a new name, not just Yamnaya 2.0.
Essentially the East/NW Bell Beakers are of a similar status. They deserve a new name, not just Corded Ware 2.0.
There seems to be a move afront to call the early Iberian Bell Beakers as "Proto-Bell Beakers" but that is like trying to steal the limelight of what deserves to be so - East/NW Bell Beakers represent a new, hybrid culture.
Perhaps they should be the:
Corded Bell Beakers or
All Over Corded Beakers

------------------------

I still owe a response on this. The innards of TMRCA estimates are sticky.

I'll post more about TMRCA estimates, etc. later.

rms2
02-03-2021, 09:37 PM
None of that is likely, IMHO. In fact, it's silly.

I get that you threw that stuff out there to watch it get chewed up.

Where is the Neolithic Iberian DNA in Kurgan Bell Beaker, if that is right?

Aesch and Auvernier aren't Beaker, so they weren't "early infiltrations of Bell Beaker males".

Ever heard of Beaker with ~80% Yamnaya DNA (Aesch25)? And those dates are too early for any kind of Beaker except non-steppe Iberian Beaker.

Had anything like Jean's and Koch's ideas been right, Kurgan Bell Beaker should have looked like a steppe/Neolithic Iberian hybrid, but nope. Not.

Instead, Kurgan Bell Beaker looks like Corded Ware that had acquired a little more eastern/central European Neolithic farmer (GAC/TRB ) DNA.

Olalde et al shot the "Bell Beaker from the west" idea down in flames. A sneak attack from the French Riviera doesn't make it any more reasonable.

Generalissimo
02-03-2021, 09:44 PM
Did R1b-L51 meet Early Iberian BBC in SE France then go on up the Rhone to CWC Interaction Zone? with East Bell Beakers being the result?

The ancestors of Aesch25 obviously moved into Switzerland from the north.

https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2020/04/aesch25.html

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_VplGrtf1hk/XqD5vRPKIiI/AAAAAAAAI1s/pZ8_9vOMwNUSnn-jJ6CjPePzzsWPPRxHQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Swiss_Plateau_PCA_scaled.png

rms2
02-03-2021, 09:50 PM
The simplest, most straightforward, self-evident answer, the one really supported by the DNA evidence, is that R1b-L51 came west via Corded Ware, to which scholars for over a century have attributed the Indo-Europeanization of Europe west of the steppe.

IMHO, R1b-L51 started west first via Yamnaya and was in on the genesis of Corded Ware during the CWC-X Horizon (c. 3000- 2900 BC) in the NW Ukraine/East Slovakia/SE Poland region. It will be found there in Yamnaya or transitional Yamnaya/CWC; mark my words. Probably R1a-M417 was there, as well, but in different clans or tribes.

Neolithic Iberian Bell Beaker is a sideshow that had little to do with Kurgan Bell Beaker except maybe V-perforated buttons.

Kurgan Bell Beaker was derived from Single Grave Corded Ware and owed NONE of its DNA to Neolithic Iberian Bell Beaker.

rms2
02-03-2021, 10:10 PM
BTW, I seem to recall someone saying that Beaker archer's wristguards were an Iberian invention.

Not so, according to Harrison and Heyd.

The following is from page 170 of Harrison and Heyd, "The Transformation of Europe in the Third Millennium BC: the example of ‘Le Petit-Chasseur I + III’ (Sion, Valais, Switzerland)":



Interestingly (and important for understanding the role different regions play in the formation of the various Beaker ‘packages’) the wristguards are not found at Sion, and are not depicted on the stelae. We suspect they are a later addition to the Beaker ‘package’, originating from the Carpathian basin. They are not part of the earliest western Beaker ‘package’.

Ibid, page 187:



There are no wrist-guards found with early Beaker graves in northern Italy, southern France, or the early maritime beaker contexts in Iberia (see chapter 9.3). Only in the Bell Beaker East Group do they occur in a few early graves (Heyd 2001).

TigerMW
02-03-2021, 10:14 PM
None of that is likely, IMHO. In fact, silly.
I agree it is not likely but I wouldn't say silly. That's insulting someone you are trying to converse with who starts with this alternative point of view. Some are actually on this forum. I think they like it that I'm carrying a message for them.


Where is the Neolithic Iberian DNA in Kurgan Bell Beaker, if that is right?
No one said Iberian auDNA had to make it into the E/NW Bell Beakers. R1b-L51 males could have taken the BBC "phenomenon" Do you have a citation there is zero Iberian auDNA in later Bell Beakers? I think a bigger question would be if SE France auDNA was in later Bell Bakers?
Don't get me wrong. I'd like nothing better than very strong answers defeating L51 from SE France.


Aesch and Auvernier aren't Beaker, so they weren't "early infiltrations of Bell Beaker males".
Infiltrate means "to enter" or "gain access too". This would be infiltrations into Corded Ware cultures.


Ever heard of Beaker with ~80% Yamnaya DNA (Aesch25)? And those dates are too early for any kind of Beaker except non-steppe Iberian Beaker.
Exactly, except perhaps the early Iberian Bell Beakers are misnamed and should be called the Southwest Bell Beakers to include parts of France.
Any foreign king/usurper may have their auDNA diluted quickly.

I don't think Jean Manco would publish a statement that is objectively wrong.
The Rhone Valley is rich in Bell Beaker sites, while eastern tributaries lead to te Alpine staleand Beaker sites at Sion and Aosta. The early phases of Bell Beaker in this area have strong affinities with those of Iberia." I think these archaelogical facts. Are you saying that the archaeology in this case is false?


Instead, Kurgan Bell Beaker looks like Corded Ware that had acquired a little more eastern/central European Neolithic farmer (GAC/TRB ) DNA.
I agree this is an strong argument that East/NW Bell Beakers came from the north. I'm interested in rereading Eurogenes. However, the opening caveat is that Y DNA does NOT necessarily align with auDNA.


Olalde et al shot the "Bell Beaker from the west" idea down in flames. A sneak attack from the French Riviera doesn't make it any more reasonable.
Olalde knocked out R1b-P310>L151>P312 from the Iberian Peninsula, in my opinion. He did not show nor attempt to show there was no Bell Beaker movement and culture from Iberia. He did not show nor attempt to show there was no R1b-P312 from France.
Show me the evidence to knock out P312 could from from SE France. We don't need flames, we need evidence.
We know early SW Bell Beaker artifacts made it up the Rhone.

TigerMW
02-03-2021, 10:31 PM
BTW, I seem to recall someone saying that Beaker archer's wristguards were an Iberian invention.
Not so, according to Harrison and Heyd.

I don't know and don't think I have ever said the "wristguards were an Iberian invention".

In the graphic I presented, John Koch says,
Beakers (= intoxicating beverage), archery equipment, copper daggers
I don't know if he was including the wristguards.

I see you have Harrison & Heyd as saying,

Only in the Bell Beaker East Group do they occur in a few early graves.
When he says "only" is he including or excluding the NW/Dutch Bell Beakers?

I see you also quote they suspect the Carpathian basin.

We suspect they are a later addition to the Beaker ‘package’, originating from the Carpathian basin.

ummm... that' on the south side of the Carpathian Mountains, right? That's not really a Corded Ware territory.

MitchellSince1893
02-03-2021, 10:41 PM
Hypothetically if a 2900-3000 BC P312 sample is found in present day Poland, with no positive calls for any sub clades, One could argue that this sample is a dead end branch and the P312 all present day subclades descend from, took the Black Sea to Rhône River route. If the same sample was positive for a subclade e.g L21 DF27 U152, but negative for any branches, one column argue it’s a dead end branch of L21, etc.
No matter what is dug up where, One can always mentally find a way around it to keep believing what they believe. Sadly we increasingly live in a world where winning arguments/maintaining one’s belief system is more important than any evidence to the contrary, even if it’s true.

JMO

PS the above isn’t directed to TigerMW. I know you are playing devils advocate in this thread. I just don’t think you are ever going to get a silver bullet ancient dna sample that will convince everyone.

TigerMW
02-03-2021, 10:42 PM
The ancestors of Aesch25 obviously moved into Switzerland from the north.

https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2020/04/aesch25.html

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_VplGrtf1hk/XqD5vRPKIiI/AAAAAAAAI1s/pZ8_9vOMwNUSnn-jJ6CjPePzzsWPPRxHQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Swiss_Plateau_PCA_scaled.png

Thank you for replying.

I want to be clear I understand what you are saying.


Aesch25 can easily pass for a CWC individual from what is now Germany (DEU_CWC_LN). On the other hand, the CWC samples from the Swiss Plateau (CHE_CWC_LN) are clearly shifted "south" relative to the German CWC cluster, which suggests that they harbor more Neolithic farmer ancestry. Indeed, they all belong to Y-haplogroup I2, which is especially closely associated with Middle Neolithic European farmers."

Am I right that you have the general Swiss Plateau CWC people as being significantly more Neolithic ancestry than the German CWC. What timeframes are the German CWC samples that you use? Timing is very important.

I don't see Iberian Peninsula Neolithic auDNA on your plot (at least specifically). If you add them, where would they be? Same question for French Neolithic auDNA?

TigerMW
02-03-2021, 10:48 PM
Hypothetically if a 2900-3000 BC P312 sample is found in present day Poland, with no positive calls for any sub clades, One could argue that this sample is a dead end branch and...
Let's not forget what I posted earlier in this thread. I said the length of the dead end branch is important as well as we have to consider timing and geography.
A 2900-3000 BC P312 sample anywhere would be outstanding as that would be a very, very short dead end trail. Therefore we would be getting close to home.


No matter what is dug up where, One can always mentally find a way around it to keep believing what they believe.
True, but it is important relegate a bad concept to the trash heap, burn it and then stamp on it a few times. Then only those with true personal thinking challenges will believe and this will be apparent.

Once upon a time, I could do statistics. It's all about probabilities. We've got to ratchet down the error range.

Today, we have too many missing links for R1b-L51>P310>L151>P312 to stamp on the bad concept. Hopefully, we'll get strong evidence soon.

MitchellSince1893
02-03-2021, 10:55 PM
Let's not forget what I posted earlier in this thread. I said the length of the dead end branch is important as well as we have to consider timing and geography.
A 2900-3000 BC P312 sample anywhere would be outstanding as that would be a very, very short dead end trail. Therefore we would be getting close to home.



True, but it is important relegate a bad concept to the trash heap, burn it and then stamp on it a few times. Then only those with true personal thinking challenges will believe and this will be apparent.

Today, we have too many missing links for R1b-L51>P310>L151>P312 to stamp on the bad concept. Hopefully, we'll get strong evidence soon.
In case you missed it, I added the following after you quoted me

PS the above isn’t directed to TigerMW. I know you are playing devils advocate in this thread. I just don’t think you are ever going to get a silver bullet ancient dna sample that will convince everyone.


I’m not familiar with your Facebook debates so I have no idea if your discussions are with reasonable individuals. I just know from years on this site that you will never convince the die hards...no matter the evidence presented.

alan
02-03-2021, 10:59 PM
For the general audience and further discussion, I think the very high percentage of Steppe-like auDNA in Aesch25 is very important for an early (~2700 BC) person.

We would like older P310 or L151 as Aesch25 does not mean the R1b-L51 that lead to L151 came in from Corded Ware.* We know that Corded Ware was a hybrid culture (Kris Kristiansen) and so involved Late Neolithic peoples.

People with high Pontic Steppe-like auDNA could have reached the coast of SE France and then west Switzerland very quickly, especially if they had good waterways skills from the Black Sea.

They didn't leave remnants along the way that I can see though, but then we still have the missing links in the R1b-L51>P310>L151's trail. The SE Poland R1b-L51>P310 is too late (~2300 BC) to be the missing link. Remember, the R1b-L151 MRCA was a single individual who lived ~3000 BC so a massive replacement of Y DNA by R1b-L151 descendants does not need to be a large population at ~3000 BC.

R1b-M269>L23>L51 could have spread all directions from the Black Sea [Removed Varna ref.].

* Notes:
I use the tilde, "~", for approximate. "This symbol (in US English) informally means 'approximately', 'about', or 'around'. I sometimes insert the word "about" but I should be more considerate of date ranges. I'll post more about TMRCA estimates, etc. later.
I try to be open to arguments I hear so will advocate differing positions to better understand various perspectives and evidence. To convince someone, you first have to understand them. People who are supportive of some of these alternative views often follow John Koch and Oliver le Mercier.

[EDIT: struck 'the earliest R1b-M269 I know of is I2181, 4550-4455 BC, in the Varna Culture adjacent to the Black Sea', since the call may be questionable.]

that scenario seems incredibly unlikely to me

alan
02-03-2021, 11:10 PM
For the general audience and further discussion, I think the very high percentage of Steppe-like auDNA in Aesch25 is very important for an early (~2700 BC) person.

We would like older P310 or L151 as Aesch25 does not mean the R1b-L51 that lead to L151 came in from Corded Ware.* We know that Corded Ware was a hybrid culture (Kris Kristiansen) and so involved Late Neolithic peoples.

People with high Pontic Steppe-like auDNA could have reached the coast of SE France and then west Switzerland very quickly, especially if they had good waterways skills from the Black Sea.

They didn't leave remnants along the way that I can see though, but then we still have the missing links in the R1b-L51>P310>L151's trail. The SE Poland R1b-L51>P310 is too late (~2300 BC) to be the missing link. Remember, the R1b-L151 MRCA was a single individual who lived ~3000 BC so a massive replacement of Y DNA by R1b-L151 descendants does not need to be a large population at ~3000 BC.

R1b-M269>L23>L51 could have spread all directions from the Black Sea [Removed Varna ref.].

* Notes:
I use the tilde, "~", for approximate. "This symbol (in US English) informally means 'approximately', 'about', or 'around'. I sometimes insert the word "about" but I should be more considerate of date ranges. I'll post more about TMRCA estimates, etc. later.
I try to be open to arguments I hear so will advocate differing positions to better understand various perspectives and evidence. To convince someone, you first have to understand them. People who are supportive of some of these alternative views often follow John Koch and Oliver le Mercier.

[EDIT: struck 'the earliest R1b-M269 I know of is I2181, 4550-4455 BC, in the Varna Culture adjacent to the Black Sea', since the call may be questionable.]

Much more likely that Switzerland and the mid to Lower Rhine area were connected by the Rhine. I think there are a couple of angles of evidence that the Swiss CW and the Single Grave culture were connected. I forget the details but I think Furholt depicted the link on his map of A horizon CW networks. They are very different zone though linked by a river. The Lower Rhine is an important geographical node with links in various directions while one wonders if exploration in the Swiss area could have something to do with metal prospecting. Most CW copper seems to have been sourced to the Carpathians and central Germany but I wouldnt be surprised if some CW groups were searching for a more convenient more westerly source of ore in the uplands in areas like the north side of the western Alps. That possibility stuck me when I heard L151 had been found in both Swiss and Czech CW. I tend to imagine early prospecting and even mining as a seasonal thing where people from lowlands spent summer in the uplands prospecting and mining with a small herd to cattle to sustain them before returning to somewhere more lowland in the summer. Its possible seasonal prospectors used boating down rivers like the Rhine and Elbe to move from the north european lowlands to the north slopes of central European uplands like the Alps in summer, moving between main population concentration areas to metal sources areas seasonally.

rms2
02-03-2021, 11:21 PM
I agree it is not likely but I wouldn't say silly. That's insulting someone you are trying to converse with who starts with this alternative point of view. Some are actually on this forum. I think they like it that I'm carrying a message for them.

I would say it's silly, and I did. One reason I did is that I don't think you believe it yourself but were tossing it out there for fun.

I didn't realize you were "carrying messages" for others. Strange, but I guess saying that is insulting, too.

Besides that, your recent posts have a condescending tone I find insulting.



No one said Iberian auDNA had to make it into the E/NW Bell Beakers. R1b-L51 males could have taken the BBC "phenomenon" Do you have a citation there is zero Iberian auDNA in later Bell Beakers? I think a bigger question would be if SE France auDNA was in later Bell Bakers?
Don't get me wrong. I'd like nothing better than very strong answers defeating L51 from SE France.

I think you've read Olalde et al. No Neolithic Iberian DNA in non-Iberian Beaker.



Infiltrate means "to enter" or "gain access too". This would be infiltrations into Corded Ware cultures.

There is no evidence such a thing took place. Corded Ware is older than Beaker. Aesch25 and Auvernier are too old to represent such "infiltrations" from a culture that only existed in Neolithic Iberia at that time and only based on very tenuous rc dates.

Thanks for the dictionary definitions of "infiltrate". You mentioned being insulting? Try crap like that. Oh, you did.

Besides that, however, you missed the mark. The salient word wasn't "infiltrate" or "infiltration". It was Beaker. Aesch25 and Auvernier might have been infiltrators, but they weren't Beaker infiltrators.



Exactly, except perhaps the early Iberian Bell Beakers are misnamed and should be called the Southwest Bell Beakers to include parts of France.
Any foreign king/usurper may have their auDNA diluted quickly.

What evidence do you have that Aesch25 was a "foreign king" or usurper from the French Riviera? He looks like German Corded Ware.



I don't think Jean Manco would publish a statement that is objectively wrong. I think these archaelogical facts. Are you saying that the archaeology in this case is false?

I did not say that statement was wrong, but Jean was obviously wrong in her Stelae People, out-of-Iberia idea for steppe or Kurgan Bell Beaker. Olalde et al rendered it moot.

In fact, her archaeological snippet renders the southern France idea untenable. R1b-L51 Beaker via that route should have looked like a steppe/Neolithic Iberian hybrid. It did not, so it didn't come via that route.



I agree this is an strong argument that East/NW Bell Beakers came from the north. I'm interested in rereading Eurogenes. However, the opening caveat is that Y DNA does NOT necessarily align with auDNA.

I don't think I said it did. I said Beaker looks like Corded Ware that had acquired a little more eastern/central European Neolithic farmer DNA, like from GAC and/or TRB.

If the R1b-L51 that got into Beaker came up from the south of France or from Iberia, it would have a different autosomal profile.



Olalde knocked out R1b-P310>L151>P312 from the Iberian Peninsula, in my opinion. He did not show nor attempt to show there was no Bell Beaker movement and culture from Iberia. He did not show nor attempt to show there was no R1b-P312 from France.
Show me the evidence to knock out P312 could from from SE France. We don't need flames, we need evidence.
We know early SW Bell Beaker artifacts made it up the Rhone.

It seems to me you are the one advancing the heretofore unheard of theory. The burden of proof is on you.

So, L51 Beaker came from of the south of France but somehow wound up with some GAC and/or TRB-looking Neolithic farmer DNA as if it didn't come from the south of France, right?

alan
02-03-2021, 11:32 PM
I don't think there have been any signs of R1b-M269 anyplace in Mesolithic Europe west of the steppe.

Had there been, especially in Ertebølle, it should have shown up in TRB or in one of the other Neolithic farming cultures.

The presence of P297 in both Samara and Latvia suggest that hunter fishers of that lineage were moving up and down (perhaps to some extent seasonally) the whole length of the Volga in the Mesolithic. M269 is old enough to have been part of that but it hasnt been found in that era anywhere as yet has it? Yfull has M269 over 13000 years old. The fact that the TMRCA yfull suggests is vastly younger (about 4400BC) suggests to me that it was essentially trundling along at bare survive hunter-gatherer-fisher type demographics till the latter date (or perhaps earlier if yfull dates are too young) when L23 was born. Even then L23 doesnt seem to have expanded much until the middle third of the 4th millenum it yfull MRCA estimate are to believed - though many suspect they are 10-15% too young so that might need backdated to 4000BC or even a bit earlier. Regarless, M269 looks to have been in a bare survival hunter demographic state for maybe 5-6000 years till at least 5000BC if not nearer 4000Bc

TigerMW
02-04-2021, 12:21 AM
I just know from years on this site that you will never convince the die hards...no matter the evidence presented.
I'm a little more optimistic than that. What I've seen is the die hards that are "agitators" will go on to something else when they see they have a lost cause.
There are some people that are challenged thinking-wise. Those are easy to spot.
There is a large silent following group that can easily be convinced, but not if they don't understand. There may not be a large silent following here. They sure didn't vote in the M269 cladistics poll, or at least the kept silent.

In this regards, it is our fault. If we can't, with an open mind, synthesize this down to something people can easily understand with a line of logic/evidence points for backup, that's our fault.

TigerMW
02-04-2021, 12:23 AM
that scenario seems incredibly unlikely to me
Alan, do you think it is incredibly unlikely for the R1b-L51>P310>L151>P312 lineage to come into the East/NW Bell Beakers, but NOT through Corded Ware? Perhaps directly from Yamnaya or descendants coming up the Danube River valley?

rms2
02-04-2021, 01:11 AM
We know of Corded Ware, its high level of steppe DNA, the Y-DNA haplogroups found in it, its artifacts, its burial practices, etc. We know that Beaker looks a lot like Corded Ware, both culturally and genetically.

So, what evidence is there of a seafaring or coasting derivative of Yamnaya that migrated west via the Mediterranean and landed in southern France, Iberia, or anywhere else along the Mediterranean littoral?

Shouldn't there be something like that? Otherwise isn't the whole southern France idea just picking a fanciful alternative out of a hat without any real reason to think it might be true?

Why not a route up into the Adriatic, with an L51 landing at Split or even Venice?

MitchellSince1893
02-04-2021, 01:13 AM
I'm a little more optimistic than that. What I've seen is the die hards that are "agitators" will go on to something else when they see they have a lost cause.
There are some people that are challenged thinking-wise. Those are easy to spot.
There is a large silent following group that can easily be convinced, but not if they don't understand. There may not be a large silent following here. They sure didn't vote in the M269 cladistics poll, or at least the kept silent.

In this regards, it is our fault. If we can't, with an open mind, synthesize this down to something people can easily understand with a line of logic/evidence points for backup, that's our fault.
I see your point on the large silent following that is interested in honestly learning the truth whatever that may be. I’m coming from the perspective of a parent of a teenager, who loves to endlessly debate me for the sake of winning. For me it’s mentally exhausting. I need to be less jaded by prior experiences.

Dewsloth
02-04-2021, 01:16 AM
Just messing around. If one takes LN pops, removes all Aesch and CW samples (except for those labelled as early CW samples):

Target: CHE_LN_steppe:Aesch25
Distance: 1.4617% / 0.01461745
43.2 DEU_BenzigerodeHeimburg_LN
35.6 Corded_Ware_Baltic_early
9.8 Yamnaya_UKR
5.2 FRA_FN_Lingolsheim_steppe
2.0 DNK_LN
1.8 SWE_LN_low_res
1.4 DEU_Anselfingen_FN
0.8 SWE_LN
0.2 VK2020_NOR_North_LN_HG

All the rest of the Aesch samples look like combinations of other Swiss, Iberian, French or Irish neolithic. Examples:

Target: CHE_LN:Aesch10
Distance: 1.5160% / 0.01515962
33.2 Iberia_Southeast_MLN
23.2 IRL_LN
14.4 Iberia_Southwest_MLN
11.0 CHE_LN
9.0 HUN_Sopot_LN
4.0 CHE_LN_contam
1.6 DEU_Anselfingen_FN
1.6 Iberia_North_MLN
1.6 SYR_Ebla_EMBA
0.4 Levant_PPNB

Target: CHE_LN:Aesch4
Distance: 1.4866% / 0.01486562
41.8 CHE_LN
28.2 Iberia_Northeast_MLN
16.6 FRA_MLN_Clos_de_Roque
4.2 Iberia_North_MLN
4.0 Iberia_Southwest_MLN
2.0 CHE_LN_contam
1.2 HUN_Tisza_LN
0.8 VNM_LN
0.6 LAO_LN_BA
0.6 POL_TRB

Target: CHE_LN:Aesch8
Distance: 1.5271% / 0.01527059
38.8 Iberia_North_MLN
33.8 Iberia_Northeast_MLN
15.0 CHE_LN
12.4 HUN_Sopot_LN

Target: CHE_LN:Aesch5
Distance: 1.1349% / 0.01134911
44.0 CHE_LN
25.0 Iberia_Southeast_MLN
14.6 Iberia_Northeast_MLN
7.2 HUN_Lengyel_LN
6.0 Iberia_North_MLN
1.4 IRL_LN
1.2 RUS_Trans-Baikal_LN
0.6 HUN_Tisza_LN

Distances:

Distance to: CHE_LN_steppe:Aesch25
0.03989422 FRA_Hauts_De_France_LN:CBV95 See below
0.04722888 DEU_Karsdorf_LN:I0550
0.05314823 Corded_Ware_Baltic_early:Gyvakarai1_10bp
0.05318110 DNK_Gjerrild_SGC_low_res:Gjerrild_id5
0.05675443 DEU_BenzigerodeHeimburg_LN:I0171
0.05926932 DEU_BenzigerodeHeimburg_LN:I0059
0.06031282 Corded_Ware_Baltic_early:Plinkaigalis242
0.06153539 DNK_MN_B:RISE61
0.06361873 FRA_FN_Lingolsheim_steppe:SX32
0.06807333 SWE_LN:RISE98


Distance to: CHE_LN:Aesch10
0.02807254 IRL_LN:CAK533
0.02828573 IRL_LN:CAK532
0.03058330 POL_TRB:N18
0.03102941 CHE_LN:MX183
0.03311345 CHE_LN:MX211
0.03383329 CHE_LN:RA59
0.03391688 CHE_LN:RA57
0.03408120 CHE_LN:RA61
0.03415762 FRA_MLN_Clos_de_Roque:I4305
0.03501756 FRA_MLN_Clos_de_Roque:I4304


Distance to: CHE_LN:Aesch4
0.02709863 IRL_LN:CAK532
0.02727405 CHE_LN:MX211
0.02796836 IRL_LN:CAK530
0.02802936 FRA_MLN_Clos_de_Roque:I4305
0.02948587 CHE_LN:MX182
0.02968537 IRL_LN:CAK531
0.03103793 Iberia_Northeast_MLN:I10280
0.03170264 CHE_LN:MX209
0.03210491 FRA_MLN_Clos_de_Roque:I4304
0.03283732 CHE_LN:MX184


Distance to: CHE_LN:Aesch8
0.02674970 FRA_MLN_Clos_de_Roque:I4305
0.02769817 FRA_MLN_Clos_de_Roque:I4304
0.02799028 IRL_LN:CAK531
0.02931541 CHE_LN:RA58
0.02961287 Iberia_Northeast_MLN:I11305
0.02991536 Iberia_Northeast_MLN:I10277
0.03003445 IRL_LN:CAK532
0.03035566 IRL_LN:CAK68
0.03166840 Iberia_Northeast_MLN:I10287
0.03299779 IRL_LN:CAK533


Distance to: CHE_LN:Aesch5
0.02394754 CHE_LN:MX211
0.02427697 IRL_LN:CAK532
0.02518143 FRA_MLN_Clos_de_Roque:I4304
0.02827011 Iberia_Northeast_MLN:I10280
0.03090241 Iberia_Southeast_MLN:I7642
0.03091784 FRA_MLN_Clos_de_Roque:I4305
0.03167644 IRL_LN:CAK533
0.03208180 CHE_LN:RA61
0.03214793 Iberia_Southeast_MLN:I8568
0.03236422 CHE_LN:MX182

Target: FRA_Hauts_De_France_LN:CBV95
Distance: 2.6303% / 0.02630312
31.0 Corded_Ware_Baltic_early
29.2 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
12.2 DEU_Karsdorf_LN
10.8 CHE_LN
5.6 HUN_Tisza_LN
4.6 VK2020_NOR_North_LN_HG
4.2 Iberia_Northeast_MLN
2.4 SWE_LN_low_res

rms2
02-04-2021, 01:24 AM
I haven't seen much of the "large silent following" at this thread.

If they do exist, I wonder how much of a service it is to them to sling really unlikely *alternatives* at them that are pretty obviously not grounded in any substantive evidence.

We could invite Gaska and Gioiello and any number of others back for that service.

rms2
02-04-2021, 02:01 AM
Before I say what I have to say in this post, let me first state that I had and have the utmost respect for Jean Manco, God rest her soul. She was a brilliant lady and a real blessing to genetic genealogy.

That said, her "Stelae People" idea was wrong. I think I understand how and why she came up with it. She was too impressed with the idea that Bell Beaker was a western, out-of-Iberia phenomenon. At the same time, however, she recognized the steppe pastoralist influences in Beaker. She also believed that R1b-M269 was ultimately of Indo-European, steppe origin.

Her way of reconciling the obvious contradictions in all that was by bringing Yamnaya or something very like Yamnaya round to early Iberia via the Mediterranean. Then Beaker, which she expected would be an R1b-M269-led mix of Yamnaya and Neolithic Iberians, advanced eastwards, where it met up in central Europe and blended with more Yamnaya migrants who had come up via the Danube valley.

Problem solved.

Her evidence was a supposed trail of stelae that led from the Pontic-Caspian steppe all the way across to western Europe, marking the trail of the "Stelae People".

Neat, and I looked into it, but to me the trail broke down because once one gets not too awfully far west, the stelae start to get weird and cease to look anything like the stelae on the steppe.

Take a look for yourself some time. As I recall, none of the "stelae" in central and western Europe is connected to a steppe-style, tumulus burial. It's just not convincing, and, besides that, Olalde et al put paid to it about four years ago.

Oh, and Jean strenuously objected to any sort of relationship between Corded Ware and Beaker, despite the numerous obvious similarities. The early wealth of R1a in CW reinforced this notion in her, and she passed away before R1b-L51 started to show up in CW in any numbers.

TigerMW
02-04-2021, 03:24 AM
I think you've read Olalde et al. No Neolithic Iberian DNA in non-Iberian Beaker.
Yes, I read it.
Also keep in mind the early SW Bell Beaker phenomenom (I didn't say people) were outside of Iberia fairly quickly according LeMercier and Koch.


There is no evidence such a thing took place. Corded Ware is older than Beaker. Aesch25 and Auvernier are too old to represent such "infiltrations" from a culture that only existed in Neolithic Iberia at that time and only based on very tenuous rc dates.
The time-line is not clearly in favor of the SGC>E/NW BBC notion... yet, without more ancient finds in the north. Here is what I have as the timelines of the cultures. It is important to note that CWC didn't hit Germany until 2880 BC (if "Corded Ware from East to West" article is right).
CWC: 3100-2350BC
Cent Eur CWC: 2900BC
SGC CWC: 2800-2200BC
Boat Axe CWC: 2800-2300BC
BBC: 2800–1800BC
Early BBC: 2900BC


Besides that, however, you missed the mark. The salient word wasn't "infiltrate" or "infiltration". It was Beaker. Aesch25 and Auvernier might have been infiltrators, but they weren't Beaker infiltrators.
...
What evidence do you have that Aesch25 was a "foreign king" or usurper from the French Riviera? He looks like German Corded Ware
The R1b-L51>P310>L151 lineage that ended up at Aesch was not necessarily Beakerized and apparently he wasn't or at least he left the fold. That doesn't mean he didn't come up the Rhone from a hypothetical L51 based colony near Narbonne that picked tup what folks are calling the "Proto-Beaker" package or phenomenom over time.

Foreigners is probably the operative word. Scouts and early exploration did take place just like in the Americas. Some of the latter Native American tribal chiefs were actually of European descent. There is no proof it happend nor proof it didn't. That's partially why I think we are still in an inclusive state as far as the R1b-L51>P312>L151>P312 route.

However, yes, I agree. Proposing a route from SE France is like threading a needle with a camel. Unfortunately, the the R1b-L51>P310>L151 lineage was like a thread with a camel (P312) tied to it and still there are missing links in the phylogeny and timeline and there are early SW Bell Beaker artifacts along the Rhone.


I said Beaker looks like Corded Ware that had acquired a little more eastern/central European Neolithic farmer DNA, like from GAC and/or TRB.
If the R1b-L51 that got into Beaker came up from the south of France or from Iberia, it would have a different autosomal profile.
I agree and think that is the best argument that is extremely negative on any Mediterranean route proposition for R1b-L51>P310>L151>P312.

This is the part you may be thinking of from Olalde's "Northwest transformation" article.

For Beaker Complex-associated individuals from Iberia, the best fit was obtained when Middle Neolithic and Copper Age populations from the same region were used as the source for their Neolithic-related ancestry, and we could exclude central and northern European populations (P < 0.0063) (Fig. 2c). Conversely, the Neolithic-related ancestry in Beaker Complex individuals outside Iberia was most closely related to central and northern European Neolithic populations with relatively high hunter-gatherer admixture (e.g. Poland_LN, P = 0.18; Sweden_MN, P = 0.25), and we could significantly exclude Iberian sources (P < 0.0104) (Fig. 2c). These results support largely different origins for Beaker Complex-associated individuals, with no discernible Iberia-related ancestry outside Iberia.

I understand this line of reasoning and what Eurogenes is saying about the Global Amphora Culture's auDNA. I don't necessarily understand the issues. Not everyone loves PCA and ADMIXTURE types of analysis.

We must ask if there are any pitfalls to this.

1) Migrations/expansions are not necessarily steady, nor even absorbing of locals, so an east to west auDNA cline may not be representative of that the R1b-L51>P310>L151>P312 path.
1a) R1b-L51 from SE France into Switzerland doesn't necessarily have to carry much if any Iberian auDNA. The SE France colony could have included women from back home (they had Steppe auDNA too).

2) Migrations/expansions may pick up different locals along the way. Given that, it is important for direct comparisons with French auDNA samples. It may be there but I haven't seen it.

While the Steppe-related ancestry in Beaker-associated individuals had a recent origin in the East2,3, the other ancestry component (from previously established European populations) could potentially be derived from several parts of Europe, as genetically closely related groups were widely distributed during the Neolithic and Copper Ages

3) The timing of the auDNA samples is important. I've asked this but haven't found it yet. What are the ages of the German CWC samples used in the auDNA analysis? Hopefully they are older than 2700-2600 BC. If not, we may be comparing Aesch to people that are derived from his type rather than the other way around.

4) Aesch and Auvernier samples are just one each. That's not exactly a representative sample especially in a environment of high mobility.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying there are no good rational, evidential answers to these concerns. I just don't know the answers myself. Help!

TigerMW
02-04-2021, 03:35 AM
I see your point on the large silent following that is interested in honestly learning the truth whatever that may be.
Much of the testing audience of R1b is in R1b-L21. That's a lot of Irish. They've usually heard about the ancient traditions/poems. Some of have read Sykes/Oppenheimer. This makes you susceptible Irish "gold" ornaments to go with Varna "gold", Mediterranean trade routes, Ireland as the star of the Tin-Bronze trade (which could be so), NW Iberian connections/Basque connections, etc., etc.

Generalissimo
02-04-2021, 04:20 AM
I understand this line of reasoning and what Eurogenes is saying about the Global Amphora Culture's auDNA. I don't necessarily understand the issues. Not everyone loves PCA and ADMIXTURE types of analysis.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying there are no good rational, evidential answers to these concerns. I just don't know the answers myself. Help!

This has nothing to do with anyone's preferences. Autosomal DNA is just one of the pieces of the puzzle, and it can't be ignored even if you don't like PCA or whatever.

All of the hard evidence we have points to L51 spreading west with the Corded Ware population.

There is currently no evidence that contradicts this scenario.

TigerMW
02-04-2021, 05:14 AM
This has nothing to do with anyone's preferences. Autosomal DNA is just one of the pieces of the puzzle, and it can't be ignored even if you don't like PCA or whatever.
I'm not sure what you mean by preferences. I absolutely agree "Autosomal DNA is just one of the pieces of the puzzle". If you are talking about the complaints related to PCA and ADMIXTURE then I ask - are there pitfalls?
Are they legitimate concerns in this case?


All of the hard evidence we have points to L51 spreading west with the Corded Ware population.
There is currently no evidence that contradicts this scenario.
I agree the "hard evidence" (genetically) is clearly towards an L51 west with Corded Ware. However, there is plenty of contradictory evidence related to the spread of Bell Beaker so how P312 became prevalent in East/NW Bell Beakers has NOT been conclusively answered. I seek to ratchet up legitimate confidence in (assuming L151>P312 is truly a CWC seeding of E/NW BBC).

I tried to download the file you pointed to at
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2019/01/dutch-beakers-like-no-other-beakers.html

Are these the right samples to consider Dutch Beakers compared to the closest CWC and the cline from Yamnaya?

Beaker_The_Netherlands:I4068
Beaker_The_Netherlands:I4069
Beaker_The_Netherlands:I4073
Beaker_The_Netherlands:I4074
Beaker_The_Netherlands:I4075
Beaker_The_Netherlands:I4076
Beaker_The_Netherlands:I5748
Beaker_The_Netherlands:I5750
CWC_Germany:I0049
CWC_Germany:I0103
CWC_Germany:I0104
CWC_Germany:I0106
CWC_Germany:I1532
CWC_Germany:I1534
CWC_Germany:I1536
CWC_Germany:I1538
CWC_Germany:I1539
CWC_Germany:I1540
CWC_Germany:I1542
CWC_Germany:I1544
CWC_Germany:RISE434
CWC_Germany:RISE436
CWC_Germany:RISE446
Yamnaya_Kalmykia:RISE240
Yamnaya_Kalmykia:RISE546
Yamnaya_Kalmykia:RISE547
Yamnaya_Kalmykia:RISE548
Yamnaya_Kalmykia:RISE550
Yamnaya_Kalmykia:RISE552
Yamnaya_Karagash:Yamnaya_Karagash
Yamnaya_Samara:I0231
Yamnaya_Samara:I0357
Yamnaya_Samara:I0370
Yamnaya_Samara:I0429
Yamnaya_Samara:I0438
Yamnaya_Samara:I0439
Yamnaya_Samara:I0441
Yamnaya_Samara:I0443
Yamnaya_Samara:I0444
Yamnaya_Ukraine:I2105
Yamnaya_Ukraine_o:I1917

Generalissimo
02-04-2021, 05:38 AM
However, there is plenty of contradictory evidence related to the spread of Bell Beaker so how P312 became prevalent in East/NW Bell Beakers has NOT been conclusively answered.

You're referring to the archeological Bell Beaker package.

Don't conflate this with the P312-rich northern Bell Beaker population.

There is no contradictory evidence against the theory that the P312-rich Bell Beakers spread from the Corded Ware horizon.

TigerMW
02-04-2021, 07:40 AM
You're referring to the archeological Bell Beaker package.

Don't conflate this with the P312-rich northern Bell Beaker population.

There is no contradictory evidence against the theory that the P312-rich Bell Beakers spread from the Corded Ware horizon.
I am not saying there is contradictory genetic evidence of the launch expansion of East/NW Bell Beakers, which are clearly P312-rich.

I am saying there are a missing links in the R1b-L51>P310>L151>P312 path, particularly since we don't know (at least publicly) the genesis of the East/NW Bell Beakers, which should include include some archeaological alignment. An example is continuity in burial styles from SGC CWC to E/NW BBC. Is that enough? I don't know but there is certainly different published opinions on the launch of E/NW BBC.

I think that finding L151 or P312 in SGC CWC would be pretty conclusive, perhaps even P310.

Apparently there is a bit of semantics burden of proof of thing. I'm not trying to prove anything. I have no purpose to disprove an L51 path through CWC>SGC CWC>E/NW BBC. In my opinion, since the Y DNA path is NOT all there (yet) then that theory is inconclusive.

I am also not proposing any alternatives with arguments that "outweigh" your L51 through CWC>E/NW BBC theory. I think your alternative outweighs anything else. There is no disagreement on this.

However, it is still unsettled. If it was conclusive, there would be no reason to try to disprove alternative theories.

If new ancient DNA results down to the L151 and P312 MRCAs, and maybe even at the P310 level, we are sitting right on top of the right timeframes that align with SGC. Therefore those newresults make the case conclusive.

In the meantime,

Are there pitfalls for the PCA/ADMIXTURE analysis for for the CWC>SGC CWC>E/NW BBC autosomal cline?

What are the samples included in your analysis? Just point me to the right link and your use of labels.

If I (and I have) argue for an L51 route via CWC to BBC, I need to able to answer "pitfall" types of concerns. It's like any game or battle. You need to know your weaknesses as well as your strengths and know how to mitigate them or explain/verify the really aren't weaknesses at all.

Generalissimo
02-04-2021, 08:59 AM
However, it is still unsettled. If it was conclusive, there would be no reason to try to disprove alternative theories.

It is already settled, considering the already published data, and there's more data on the way from the Netherlands and Germany.

No one here is trying to disprove any alternative theories, I certainly am not. We're actually just pointing out that there are no plausible alternative theories.

There will always be missing links if you dig deep enough, but the big picture is already clear. We're just waiting to learn the details.

etrusco
02-04-2021, 09:37 AM
a new paper sans ancient dna about the most north east BBC site as of today ( Suprasil in Poland ) caveat about the dating of the site ( too old IMHO)

https://revije.ff.uni-lj.si/DocumentaPraehistorica/article/view/47.20/9181

ABSTRACT –The Bell Beaker (BB) cultural package is one of the concepts explaining the extensive diffusion of this phenomenon in Europe. Artefacts associated with the package, discovered mainlyin the graves of men, form groups defining the status of the deceased. The BB package is a dynamic turn of events, changing depending on the region, but preserving certain characteristic traits. The complete set of its initial ingredients was not copied in any location, and new local elements wereadded in various areas of its diffusion. The ritual features unearthed in north-eastern Poland, whichcontained elements of the BB package, are the assemblages located the furthest in the East European periphery of the phenomenon. The eco- and artefacts from these assemblages are difficult to inter-pret conclusively within the framework of the classic BB package, as well as in terms of its changes associated with its diffusion. This is connected with the fact that they include elements unknown among the local cultural entities, which reflect the broad circle of contacts their owners maintained.

dsm
02-04-2021, 09:54 AM
Seems we need a few more published papers to add to what we know.

But, from what I see based on known patterns of ancient burials, a path of L51 from the Black Sea to middle western Europe other than through Ukraine Belarus or Poland has too much missing from the burial patterns (by date).

What is just as feasible, is that there were at least 2 major migrations from the likely area that L51 1st emerged. And, that the 1st migration was 1 to 2 hundred years before the later migration of Z2103/I2 peoples from a very close by area of the Steppes/Forest Zone, who eventually travelled through Sth Ukraine then up the Danube into the Carpathian basin, who clearly then stopped there and settled.

It seems possible that L51-L52-L151 was in the sth Alps before the z2103/I2 group(s) reached the Hungarian plains.

It has to be glaringly obvious that whatever event had L51 heading in multiple directions from the Volga-Ural region, happend quickly and led to L151 becoming the dominant salt and metal miners and amber traders in the region that later hosted the Unitice culture then the Hallstatt and La Tene areas. P312 branches have to have multipled like flies on a corpse between 3,000 BCE and 2,500 BCE. The biggest question has to be what event around 3,200 BCE triggered the massive movements from the Volga-Ural, the Don-Volga area (where the rivers almost meet - i.e. Volograd), and later from the Dnieper river Valley (Donbass). AFAICT, the latter area was where at least one major set of R1a tribes began an on-going migration from the Dnieper river valley up into central Russia, then to Volga-Ural then into the *stans and Iran/Nth India That group (dominated by R1a-Z93) seemed to have started rolling and then kept going and growing in power along the way. The other R1a who alternatively make up another part of Cordedware (mostly as R1a-Z283 and minus the R1a-Z93 group) and also, other than the western Cordedware R1b fringe group (now considered as SGC and later Bell-Beaker ) seem to me to have been doing their Cordeware moves *after* L51-L52-L151 were already in central western Europe (i.e. Western edge of Cordedware).

<EDIT> So put plainly, did L23-L51 and particular sub-clades reach central western Europe (such as east or sth Baltic, Poland, Belarus, nth Ukraine) before the R1a-Z283 based Cordedware became firmly established between Germany and Moscow in Central Russia.<end edit>

So a possibility is, did L151 reach the Sth Alps etc well before Yamnaya Z2103 / I2 were settling on the east of the Tisza River on the Hungarian plains. Note this is predicated on there being *no* substantial evidence that the Yamnaya as Z2103/I2 peoples who trundled into the Hungarian plains, went any further. The 'current' DNA data says they settled there east of the Tisza. And, these plains suited their lifestyle. The L51 groups seem to show some water skills. That is a recurring theme in many peoples assessments.

The massive takeover of trade in western Europe, particularly by P312 groups, has to have started with a population explosion that was derived from some major event be it a dramatic weather event or arrival of plague, or?, in Europe between 3,200 BCE and 3,000 BCE.

We have to consider some key possibilities as regards P312 (and parent L151)....
1) That L151 swarmed into central western Europe in such numbers that they took over right from the start (between 3,200 BCE-2,900 BCE) - I doubt this !.
2) L151 arrived quickly from the nth Pontic Caspian Steppes in a small band early on then the P312 sub-clade in particular exploded to such numbers they were able to sweep British Isles from 2,500 BCE on and other parts of Europe in a similar timeframe
3) Why does the available autoDNA evidence suggest >L151< arrivals blended with existing Scandinavian DNA but typically *replaced* other central western European & British Isles Y-DNA ?
4) Is 3 telling us that a small band arrived & blended around East & Sth Baltic, then the P312 sub-clade evolved and moved toeards the Sth Alps and into the Rhine Valley and as already suggested, exploded in population and power and that this L151 derived group did some replacing of existing Y-DNA in other central European locations (IIRC not of mtDNA)
5) What evidence if any (I seen none) exists to say Yamnaya as Z2103/I2 from the Hungarian Plains did any damage north of the Carpathians. All I see with them is a group who settled there on the plains & then got into serious trading of goods *and horses* with people from the north etc: - Csepel Island seems to have been the major trading hub and there are some overlapping burials of people there that appear to have come from way north.


Lots of ideas to work over.

MitchellSince1893
02-04-2021, 02:54 PM
For Black Sea/Mediterranean route to be a viable option, don’t we need some proof that the sea fearing technology and knowledge existed in the right place at the right time to facilitate such long distance sea travel?

I looked and the earliest evidence I found was


Navigation on the sea began among Egyptians as early as the 3rd millennium BCE... Drawing of an Egyptian seagoing ship, c. 2600 BCE, based on vessels depicted in the bas-relief discovered in the pyramid of King Sahure at Abū Ṣīr, Cairo. https://www.britannica.com/technology/ship/History-of-ships

A little too late and not the right place/culture.

What evidence is there that such a route was even feasible for Black Sea peoples to make such a trip?

Silesian
02-04-2021, 03:14 PM
Seems we need a few more published papers to add to what we know.

But, from what I see based on known patterns of ancient burials, a path of L51 from the Black Sea to middle western Europe other than through Ukraine Belarus or Poland has too much missing from the burial patterns (by date).

What is just as feasible, is that there were at least 2 major migrations from the likely area that L51 1st emerged. And, that the 1st migration was 1 to 2 hundred years before the later migration of Z2103/I2 peoples from a very close by area of the Steppes/Forest Zone, who eventually travelled through Sth Ukraine then up the Danube into the Carpathian basin, who clearly then stopped there and settled.

It seems possible that L51-L52-L151 was in the sth Alps before the z2103/I2 group(s) reached the Hungarian plains.

It has to be glaringly obvious that whatever event had L51 heading in multiple directions from the Volga-Ural region, happend quickly and led to L151 becoming the dominant salt and metal miners and amber traders in the region that later hosted the Unitice culture then the Hallstatt and La Tene areas. P312 branches have to have multipled like flies on a corpse between 3,000 BCE and 2,500 BCE. The biggest question has to be what event around 3,200 BCE triggered the massive movements from VolgaUral, Don-Volga area (where they almost meet - i.e. Volograd), and later the Dnieper river Valley (Donbass). AFAICT, the latter area was where at least one major set of R1a tribes began an on-going migration from the Dnieper river valley up into central Russia, then to Volga-Ural then into the *stans and Iran/Nth India That group (dominated by R1a-Z93) seemed to have started rolling and then kept going and growing in power along the way. The other R1a who alternatively make up another part of Cordedware (minus the R1a-Z93 group) and other than the western Cordedware R1b fringe (now considered as SGC and BB) seem to me to have been doing their Cordeware moves *after* L51-L52-L151 were already in central western Europe (i.e. Western edge of Cordedware).

So a possibility is, did L151 reach the Sth Alps etc well before Z2103 / I2 were setlling on the east of the Tisza on the Hungarian plains.

The massive takeover of trade in western Europe, particularly by P312 groups, has to have started with a population explosion that was derived from some major event be it a dramatic weather event or arrival of plague, or?, in Europe between 3,200 BCE and 3,000 BCE.

Lots of ideas to work over.

Yamnaya buried under 1000 year grave sites in Volga Kurgans are Z2109+. 2 Eastern Hungarian Bell Beakers almost surely are Z2109+ . Bell Beaker Poland might by Z2103?
Afanasievo Mongolian Altai I6222 R1b is p310 3300+/- if I understand correctly. Leaving an interesting question, since it is older than Switzerland R1b 2864 +/- and Polish Lubcze 2459?- L52*
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WhUiR1AoupXETsh0h9XocLKMq8ics4QrUl4m8BLf6t8/edit#gid=0

Polish Corded Ware samples L52* are almost 900 years younger than Mongolian Alati P310. Yet they drift closer with Afanasievo than Yamnaya(IMO are almost identical autosomally,). One would imagine they might be closer to Early Baltic Corded Ware since those also are around 3000+/- .

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63138-w


The appearance of the Yamnaya (around 3100-3000 BCE) complex in southern Europe roughly coincides with the appearance of the Corded Ware complex (CWC) (around 2900-2800 BCE) further to the North. Earlier archaeogenomic analyses have shown that the CWC individuals, exhibit Steppe ancestry1,10,11,12. Contemporaneous individuals analysed from this region (i.e. central Europe) have however shown a varying degree of Steppe ancestry1,10. This component has not been demonstrated among individuals associated with the Globular Amphora culture11,13,14. ................The study of individuals associated with the CWC complex detected ancestry and admixture patterns with the HG groups, individuals of the Steppe culture groups such as Afanasievo and Yamnaya complexes...............


Overall, although non-significant the results suggested a trend where the four groups share more genetic drift with Russia_Afanasievo than with Yamnaya and Groups I, II and III share more genetic drift with Poland_CW than with Russian_Afanasievo (Table S14 & Fig. S20). This pattern was also mirrored by the f2-statistics.

Russian_Afanasievo P310, and Polish CWC samples 900 years younger +/- L52* ?

RBHeadge
02-04-2021, 03:19 PM
There is a large silent following group that can easily be convinced, but not if they don't understand. There may not be a large silent following here. ...

In this regards, it is our fault. If we can't, with an open mind, synthesize this down to something people can easily understand with a line of logic/evidence points for backup, that's our fault.

I consider myself in this group. I am curious about the subject and want to learn more. However, I lack a background in archeology. Nor do I have the advanced working knowledge of some of these genetic analysis tools that some posters here possess. I won't post unless I have something to contribute. I won't even ask a question if it appears that it will be ignored. I would think there are other lurkers here who feel the same.


They sure didn't vote in the M269 cladistics poll, or at least the kept silent.


I haven't seen much of the "large silent following" at this thread.

Lurkers are silent by definition.


If they do exist, I wonder how much of a service it is to them to sling really unlikely *alternatives* at them that are pretty obviously not grounded in any substantive evidence.

There is utility in asking those questions. Gedankenexperiment, strawmen, and "sanity checks" are common tools in my field. It helps to prevent "group think" and ensure that one isn't investing resources going down the wrong path.

It is useful for the casual readers and lurkers here too. There aren't many (any?) texts on archeogenetics. It's a new field. There aren't many current survey publications to read to read as a primer either. New peer reviewed papers are coming out routinely and the field is evolving, as are the thoughts on websites like this. Since academia hasn't had the time to write a coherent survey paper with their own overarching theory, the current thinking is loosely compiled on sites like this. But it's hardly organized for a novice to read.

Tiger posed a strawman. It isn't the prevailing hypothesis of this thread but it is found elsewhere on the web and novices would have encountered it at some point. The responses back over the last few pages have given references to poke holes in that hypothesis. It's useful to a neutral reader to see those references and rationale posted in the same place in a civil manner. Together it adds some credence to the prevailing hypothesis here. A well thought out hypothesis should be able to withstand simple questions and scrutiny.

What is not useful to a neutral reader is uncivil discourse. If I see name calling, pettiness, and unprofessional behavior then I close the page and discount what was read. If it persists then I stop coming back. There are certainly other sites which I ignore, and don't need to dignify by listing them here. I expect other lurkers behave the same.

TigerMW
02-04-2021, 03:41 PM
For Black Sea/Mediterranean route to be a viable option, don’t we need some proof that the sea fearing technology and knowledge existed in the right place at the right time to facilitate such long distance sea travel?

I looked and the earliest evidence I found was

https://www.britannica.com/technology/ship/History-of-ships

A little too late and not the right place/culture.

What evidence is there that such a route was even feasible for Black Sea peoples to make such a trip?

Thank you for the idea. I think probable lacking for limited long distance seafaring capabilities in combination with the need for colonies to hop along the coast is a good argument. If there were colonies along the coasts where are the R1b-P310 types or steppe DNA in the 3000 BC timeframe? I assume we don't have Steppe DNA found in the along the Aegean, Adriatic, Tyrrhenian Seas, right?

The Bell Beakers were able to travel across deep seas, as evidenced by reaching Sardinia, but that was not until ~2100 BC.

The timing thing and ancient finds of any sort are tricky. Van De Noort and others have looked at the sewn-plank boats. The earliest found (so far, like everything else) is 2050 BC or so. The long-distance and oftentimes coastal trade network of the Bell Beakers leads one to think they had decent maritime capabilities.

"Argonauts of the North Sea - a Social MaritimeArchaeology for the 2nd Millennium BC"

Following Helms(1988), it has been argued that the socio-political significance of the acquisition of long-distance exchanged goods was connected to the ritual of travel and geographical distance and that a greater awareness for the practice of seafaring is required to fully appreciate long-distance exchange and the role of prestige goods. For the British Bronze Age, the significance of travel changed considerably with the evolving modes of trade. In the later 3rd and early 2nd millennia cal BC, long-distance exchange was of a directional nature.
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/12825328.pdf

However, 3000 BC is pretty early, which should be about the of the R1b-L151 or R1b-P312 MRCAs, so surely we should seem some genetic evidence of the R1b-L51>P310 types along the coasts. Notice I'm specifying P310. This is because of the P310* in Mongolia. I don't think you can go from Italy to Mongolia about 3000 BC easily and there aren't any archaeological trails. I think we have to wait for closer to Marco Polo for that.

TigerMW
02-04-2021, 04:08 PM
It is already settled, considering the already published data, and there's more data on the way from the Netherlands and Germany.
This depends on what "it" is. I wouldn't say the R1b-L51>P310>L151>P312 route has been settled yet. I seen it published anyway although each of us may have differing views on what constitutes "settled". As far as R1b-L51 in Corded Ware, yes, it's absolutely settled.


No one here is trying to disprove any alternative theories, I certainly am not.
I am trying to disprove a Mediterranean route as I find the Northern European route most probable. You don't have to support my effort. I appreciate you replying at all.

Since you are primarily providing evidence and thinking for the Yamnaya>CWC>SGC-CWC>East BBC people movement, I ask you point me to the right places and labels for the data set used for your analysis.

The following is for the broader audience.

This is just due diligence [(on my part for myself). I am sure analysts do their due diligence so it is not a personal criticism of anybody. edit: added in brackets.]

I suspect there can be objections about lack of representative sampling and lack of proper ages. For instance older SGC ancient DNA may be very limited so younger might be used as a substitute or supplement. These could be very important considerations for mobile, dynamic, cultures.

On the other hand, once Corded Ware or then BBC peoples reach their destinations they may become very stable, people-wise. This seems to be the case in Britain anyway so this would a argument to mitigate the concerns.

Also on the other hand, I suspect that scientists have some steps in the processes to make sure their clusters are real, such as checking for variation within the proposed cluster as well as across geographies and timeframes. Hopefully, the variation is statistically assessed. I would like to be able to superficially comment (supportively) on these processes.

Another mitigating factor is that autosomal DNA has very wide reach very quickly. If you go back eight generations, or perhaps about 200 years, your autosomal DNA has pulled in up to 128 lineages.

etrusco
02-04-2021, 04:28 PM
This depends on what "it" is. I wouldn't say the R1b-L51>P310>L151>P312 route has been settled yet. I seen it published anyway although each of us may have differing views on what constitutes "settled". As far as R1b-L51 in Corded Ware, yes, it's absolutely settled.


I am trying to disprove a Mediterranean route as I find the Northern European route most probable. You don't have to support my effort. I appreciate you replying at all.

Since you are primarily providing evidence and thinking for the Yamnaya>CWC>SGC-CWC>East BBC people movement, I ask you point me to the right places and labels for the data set used for your analysis.

The following is for the broader audience.

This is just due diligence. I suspect there can be objections about lack of representative sampling and lack of proper ages. For instance older SGC ancient DNA may be very limited so younger might be used as a substitute or supplement. These could be very important considerations for mobile, dynamic, cultures.

On the other hand, once Corded Ware or then BBC peoples reach their destinations they may become very stable, people-wise. This seems to be the case in Britain anyway so this would a argument to mitigate the concerns.

Also on the other hand, I suspect that scientists have some steps in the processes to make sure their clusters are real, such as checking for variation within the proposed cluster as well as across geographies and timeframes. Hopefully, the variation is statistically assessed. I would like to be able to superficially comment (supportively) on these processes.

Another mitigating factor is that autosomal DNA has very wide reach very quickly. If you go back eight generations, or perhaps about 200 years, your autosomal DNA has pulled in up to 128 lineages.

Who is proposing a mediterranean route? Twilight zone.....

sheepslayer
02-04-2021, 05:01 PM
Why does the prospect of exhaustively debunking what appears to be an archaic theory, seem so bewildering and offensive to so many people on here? This thread is for fun and brainstorming, but when someone has fun and brainstorms in the direction of the Pyrenees we are suddenly embroiled in a theater of passive aggression and hostility

TigerMW
02-04-2021, 06:05 PM
Who is proposing a mediterranean route? Twilight zone.....
He's actually on here, but there are others enthralled with the ancient Celticism, Atlantic focus, etc. and of course the Irish poems support this. They were written about a 1000 years ago and as some have suggested may be euhemerisms.

etrusco
02-04-2021, 07:08 PM
He's actually on here, but there are others enthralled with the ancient Celticism, Atlantic focus, etc. and of course the Irish poems support this. They were written about a 1000 years ago and as some have suggested may be euhemerisms.

I came up some years ago when I started to brownse freely for the first time on genetic forums just for fun and out of curiosity. I think he was an irish man that posted very often on the Gioiello site IIRC. His name was Dartrage or something like that. He was very strong on the R1b L51 from the west theory.

dsm
02-04-2021, 09:53 PM
An open question re L51-L52 path from Volga-Ural to Black Sea then somehow to central western Europe, is the yet to be explained claim of an ancient burial of R1b-L23-L51-L52 Claimed to exist in Eastern Bulgaria (but not yet published). It might be similar to the L52 Afanasievo burial. If so then it muddies the waters somewhat but would support the idea of L51 in the Balkans at an early date.

Also the above posted references (Silesian's post) to Z2109 AFAIAC are sub-clades of Z2103. I tend to stick to Z2103 to try to avoid the obvious confusion as to how Z2109 relates to Z2103. So a Z2109 burial can be called a Z2103 burial and is thus easier to connect to. If I write Z2103* then it means Z2103 and no sub-clades. Z2103 is essentially Z2103+ (which really means Z2103 plus any sub-clades) but writing Z2103 is simpler and clearer. As is writing L23-L51 (to mean all SNPs between L51 and L151 etc: ) - L51* can remain as the meaning of L51 and no sub-clades.

TigerMW
02-04-2021, 11:07 PM
Polish Corded Ware samples L52* are almost 900 years younger than Mongolian Alati P310. Yet they drift closer with Afanasievo than Yamnaya(IMO are almost identical autosomally,). One would imagine they might be closer to Early Baltic Corded Ware since those also are around 3000+/- .


non-significant the results suggested a trend where the four groups share more genetic drift with Russia_Afanasievo than with Yamnaya
I have read David Anthony writings that Afanasievo (artifacts) are similar to the Repin Culture and so he surmises Afansievo's origin is Repin. Late Repin appears to become an element of early Yamnaya. I would not be surprised if L51>P310/L52 originated in the Repin area. For some reason it headed both east (Afanasievo) and west (parts of CWC) at high speed.