View Full Version : YSNP Prediction and charting of R-L554

10-19-2020, 09:29 PM
R-L554 was discovered nine years ago via the FTDNA "Walk The Y" test. Unlike many other branches discovered in this time frame, it remains a relatively small haplogroup. Here is an updated analysis of this predictable and chartable haplogroup:

1) The TMRCA is around 1200 YBP based on three dominant surname clusters and three other standalone testers.
2) I found only 18 testers confirmed to be L554 at Y67 or higher.
3) I found only 13 testers predicted to be L554 via a binary logistic regression prediction model.
4) For very high prediction accuracy, you need the haplogroup to be in the 1500 to 2500 YBP - so prediction accuracy will suffer and the signature size will be smaller. This is confirmed as the model is only 78 % in accuracy and its signature is at the minimum of six markers at Y67.
5) Three major surname clusters are revealed: Wilcox (11), Humphrey (5) and Pike (4). These surname clusters have huge signatures: Wilcox (18), Humphrey (13) and Pike (13).

Feel free to comment on any of this analysis.

Here are the files associated with the analysis (URLs corrected):

This is the EXCEL file used for all analysis:


Here is a very preliminary and rough version of the analysis:


Here are the SAPP Input and Output files: