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View Full Version : How reliable is FTDNA's TiP Report?



tatals
01-31-2021, 06:25 PM
A while ago, I bought my Dad the 37-marker-level exam. He's a M269 (predicted U152). He's got, so far, 17,019 matches at 12; 77 at 25; and 30 at 37.

I know the matches will decrease and get more distant as he progresses, and I'm not really confident at all that he will really have any when he reaches the 700 markers, because it's an Italian line and, caham, Italians are not great at testing.

Anyway, so far, all of his matches at 37 are either English, Scottish or Irish - or from a colonial American line that originates in one of those places. I guess there's also a French guy. Which is fine, it's distant, ok. 29 of his matches are at distance 4, and the closest one is a distance 2, surname Cox. My thing is: when I checked the TiP Report comparing my father and the Cox guy, it gave me this:

42983


So, how reliable is this prediction? Will it change and get more distant as we increase the markers tested? I'm having trouble figuring out how it is even possible for a British man match my Italian dad in the last 22 generations. If it were an Iron Age thing, I wouldn't be bothered, but it's too close not to be weird. What am I missing?

rms2
01-31-2021, 06:36 PM
You know, I wouldn't rely too much on it at Y-37 unless the match is very close and has your surname or a variant of it.

It gets better at Y-67 and Y-111, but, again, it's going to be better the closer the match and within the same surname.

For example, I have a couple of same-surname matches at Y-111, 110/111 and 109/111, who share the same EKA (earliest known ancestor) with me. In those cases FTDNA's TiP Report nails it, and I am able to confirm that, because the EKA in question is well documented.

tatals
01-31-2021, 06:52 PM
You know, I wouldn't rely too much on it at Y-37 unless the match is very close and has your surname or a variant of it.

It gets better at Y-67 and Y-111, but, again, it's going to be better the closer the match and within the same surname.

For example, I have a couple of same-surname matches at Y-111, 110/111 and 109/111, who share the same EKA (earliest known ancestor) with me. In those cases FTDNA's TiP Report nails it, and I am able to confirm that, because the EKA in question is well documented.


That's what I figured, but I was not super sure. Thank you.