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Tomenable
03-26-2022, 09:06 PM
I've read on one genealogy blog, that Ken Nordtvedt is of the opinion that I2a-Din could originate in Polesye (Southern Belarus):

https://learn.familytreedna.com/news/ken-nordtvedt-genetic-genealogy-interview/

I also used think some time ago that I2a-Din could originate from a refugium of hunter-gatherers located in the Pripyat Marshes.

=====

Modern regional frequencies of I2a within Belarus (Figure 6.):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3681942/

Southern Belarus (Polesye):

BeWP Western Polesye - 25.62% I2a (31 / 121 samples)
BeEP Eastern Polesye - 26.04% I2a (25 / 96 samples)

Other regions of Belarus:

BeC - Central Belarus - 18.18% (16 / 88 samples)
BeE - Eastern Belarus - 13.95% (12 / 86 samples)
BeN - Northern Belarus - 10.89% (11 / 101 samples)
BeW - Western Belarus - 2.74% (2 / 73 samples)

What do you think about this theory? It is a pity that we don't have any pre-Medieval ancient DNA samples from Belarus so far.

vasil
03-26-2022, 09:20 PM
I think its very likely thats where S20602 split but more Western than Eastern Polesie posibly as far west as the Vistula/Lublin area. I dont know if we are getting anything in the near future from Belarus the way things are I hope scientists can be given access to Belarusian remains but if not we are just going to have to settle for Poland and Ukraine. I dont think its local HG though it definitely came recently from the west.

bce
03-26-2022, 09:39 PM
I've read on one genealogy blog, that Ken Nordtvedt is of the opinion that I2a-Din could originate in Polesye (Southern Belarus):

https://learn.familytreedna.com/news/ken-nordtvedt-genetic-genealogy-interview/

I also used think some time ago that I2a-Din could originate from a refugium of hunter-gatherers located in the Pripyat Marshes.

=====

Modern regional frequencies of I2a within Belarus (Figure 6.):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3681942/

Southern Belarus (Polesye):

BeWP – Western Polesye - 25.62% I2a (31 / 121 samples)
BeEP – Eastern Polesye - 26.04% I2a (25 / 96 samples)

Other regions of Belarus:

BeC - Central Belarus - 18.18% (16 / 88 samples)
BeE - Eastern Belarus - 13.95% (12 / 86 samples)
BeN - Northern Belarus - 10.89% (11 / 101 samples)
BeW - Western Belarus - 2.74% (2 / 73 samples)

What do you think about this theory? It is a pity that we don't have any pre-Medieval ancient DNA samples from Belarus so far.

I think ultimately yes, it originated in the Zarubintsy culture in western Polesye or Volhynia. But it wasn't a group of Hunter-gatherers, but one man whose lineage grew into a clan and eventually into a large part of the population.

Here I reconstructed how the demographic expansion could've hapened based on the current yfull tree:
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?3821-Albanian-DNA-Project&p=837899&viewfull=1#post837899


Also, here is the data for Ukraine:

https://i.imgur.com/h24tNPa.png

the peak is at 30% in Zhytomyr, also a part of Polesye.

Tomenable
03-26-2022, 11:27 PM
Edit:

Never mind. Zhytomyr Oblast is indeed mostly within Polesye.

Tomenable
04-10-2022, 10:31 PM
Also, here is the data for Ukraine:

https://i.imgur.com/h24tNPa.png

the peak is at 30% in Zhytomyr, also a part of Polesye.

^^^ Which study is this data from? What is the % of R1a in Zhytomyr?

bce
04-10-2022, 10:49 PM
^^^ Which study is this data from? What is the % of R1a in Zhytomyr?

this one.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1bUIW1YACgZYmxHalBLTnZnSmM/view?resourcekey=0-GKLQByZp_VSlb3RQ99RB-g
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1bUIW1YACgZYlJGZWlNd25xTkU/view?resourcekey=0-Oy_D5UWzrt-mhERmSpOYaw

it's in Ukrainian. starting at page 139 of the second part there is detailed data for some of the oblasts, unfortunately not for Zhytomyr and a couple others.
But they are present in charts like the one I posted and referenced in the text.

bce
04-11-2022, 08:40 AM
What is the % of R1a in Zhytomyr?

missed this part, sorry.

it's about 27% Z280, and 10% m458

https://i.imgur.com/LSTJq2A.png

ph2ter
04-11-2022, 11:17 AM
I integrated this new data with my old data from 2017 for I2a.
This is the result:

https://i.imgur.com/Q1UvwdY.png

South Slavic distribution looks like a founder effect because it consists almost entirely of PH908 clade. Other Slavic areas have very diverse clades.
I am not sure how reliable are data taken from Romanian Piatra Neamt.

ph2ter
04-11-2022, 11:36 AM
R1a:
https://i.imgur.com/DwYLFA4.png

Tomenable
04-11-2022, 11:51 AM
I integrated this new data with my old data from 2017 for I2a.

I'm not sure about founder efffects - but the overall % of Slavic Y lineages in the Balkans is nearly the same as % of Slavic autosomal DNA. On a Polish forum I (my nick there is Domen) made a comparison of Slavic Y-DNA (R1a + I2a-Din) vs. Slavic auDNA among South Slavs:

https://slawomirambroziak.pl/forum/index.php?topic=5441.0

Slavic Y-DNA:

Slovenia = 60% (n=364)
Croats = 62% (n=2945)
Bosnia = 57% (n=565)
Serbs = 53% (n=2199)
Macedonians = 44% (n=393)
Montenegrins = 38% (n=403)
Bulgaria = 38% (n=1030)
Ghegs = 8% (n=611)
Kosovars = 7% (n=318)

My sources for Y-DNA frequencies were:

Slovenia - Delser 2018 & http://veneti.joomla.com/multilingua/english/255-y-dna-routes-of-the-ancestors-of-slovenes
Croats - Primorac 2022, Peričić 2005 & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_studies_on_Croats#Abstract_and_data
Serbs - Peričić 2005 and https://www.poreklo.rs/2019/06/12/y-dna-haplogroups-of-ethnic-serbs/
Macedonians - Noveski 2010 (n=211), Jankova 2019 (n=103) & Peričić 2005 (n=79)
Montenegrins - Mirabal 2010 (https://poreklo4.rssing.com/chan-65540316/article1142.html)
Bulgaria - Karachanak 2013 (n=808), Martinez-Cruz 2012 (n=122) & Zaharova 2001 (n=100)
Ghegs and Kosovars - http://www.gjenetika.com/statistikat/ and Peričić 2005

^^^
Feel free to suggest any additional Y-DNA studies/sources - I will add data from them and increase my sample sizes.

=====

And my autosomal model is based on G25. I included the following populations as possible ancestors of South Slavs:

1. Slovenia/Croatia/Serbia/Bulgaria Iron & Bronze Age
2. Roman samples, including two discussed here (link) (https://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?344660-Actually-there-is-an-Imperial-Roman-sample-with-no-Levantine-admixture-(New-model-in-the-Thread))
3. Samples of La Tene from Austria and from Croatia
4. Early Medieval AV2 from Szolad to represent Slavs
5. DEU_MA_Baiuvaric as German/Austrian admixture
6. Jutland Iron Age to represent possible Gothic admix
7. GRC_Mycenaean to represent possible Greek admix
8. Scythians (culturally at least) of Hungary & Moldova

^^^ SOURCE populations (feel free to suggest any changes to my model):

https://vahaduo.github.io/vahaduo/


HUN_Avar_Szolad:Av2,0.134311,0.126941,0.081458,0.0 65569,0.035391,0.033746,0.00987,0.005769,0.004704,-0.02278,-0.002436,-0.005395,0.01219,0.020643,-0.015201,-0.003845,0.005867,0.004561,0.008673,5e-04,0.001497,-0.00272,0.013804,-0.007109,0.002634
ITA_Rome_Imperial:RMPR111,0.12862,0.157407,0.01395 3,-0.033592,0.024004,-0.005578,0.0047,0.000692,-0.000205,0.038634,-0.001461,0.009591,-0.012042,-0.005505,-0.010043,0.009812,0.009909,-0.005574,0.011187,0.006128,-0.008735,-0.00643,-0.004437,-0.000964,0.008263
ITA_Rome_Imperial:RMPR113,0.122929,0.162485,-0.007542,-0.041021,0.018465,-0.017291,-0.00846,-0.008077,0.015339,0.030433,-0.000325,0.004496,-0.008771,-0.007294,-0.005157,-0.016176,-0.011474,-0.005701,0.007793,-0.017133,0.00025,-0.002102,0.001479,-0.011206,-0.002036
ITA_Rome_Imperial:RMPR836,0.119514,0.158423,-0.007542,-0.037791,0.011387,-0.01757,-0.005875,-0.009692,-0.007567,0.024966,0,-0.004496,-0.014717,-0.002202,-0.014386,-0.001591,-0.003781,-0.007728,0.013073,-0.004752,-0.004866,0.011252,-0.000493,-0.00482,-0.002874
ITA_Rome_Imperial:RMPR835,0.102441,0.14319,-0.006411,-0.038114,0.017849,-0.017012,-0.010575,0.002077,0.001023,0.019135,0.006008,0.001 199,-0.009217,-0.004542,-0.008822,0.009679,0.003912,0.003801,-0.003142,-0.007754,-0.004492,-0.005193,0.005176,-0.001928,-0.001197
HRV_Pop_RomanP:POP23,0.120652,0.116786,0.033564,0. 02261,0.022773,0.011713,-0.001175,0.004384,0.003068,0.002005,0.001137,0.006 145,-0.003865,-0.007432,0.0019,0.016176,0.011343,-0.003421,0.005908,-0.002876,-0.004866,-0.000742,0.005053,0.004097,0.001317
DEU_MA_Baiuvaric,0.1223596,0.1303939,0.061169,0.04 8773,0.039792,0.0199408,0.010975,0.0052151,0.00132 95,-0.0024966,-0.003735,0.001109,-0.0091576,-0.0038398,0.0161643,-0.0008352,-0.0133511,0.0032684,0.0041354,0.0040271,0.0060019, 0.0037342,-0.0007273,0.011146,-0.0004429
SVN_IA_BA:SVN_EIA,0.1297584,0.1478611,0.0458202,0. 0069122,0.0434541,-0.0008646,0.001269,0.0026537,0.0110034,0.0244013,0 .0002273,0.0063693,-0.0152377,-0.0086425,0.0019953,-0.0025457,0.0016038,0.0021283,0.0026522,-0.0021007,-0.0021588,0.0065536,-0.0015159,-0.0023257,-0.0013172
SVN_IA_BA:SVN_LBA,0.130897,0.142174,0.047894,0.024 548,0.039084,0.003626,0.00282,0.000923,0.003681,0. 009659,-0.004222,0.008393,-0.016353,-0.011147,0.005293,0.015911,0.014212,-0.002534,0.000251,-0.001501,0.003369,0.006059,0.004067,-0.005543,-0.00491
SVN_IA_BA:SVN_LBA_EIA,0.132035,0.152329,0.04714,-0.00646,0.041238,0.000558,0.0047,0.000692,0.012476 ,0.021686,-0.003897,0.012589,-0.018731,-0.003165,-0.008415,-0.017104,-0.00691,-0.008235,-0.00264,-0.005753,-0.00861,0.015704,0.002835,0.000964,-0.004431
SVN_IA_BA:SVN_MBA,0.129758,0.152329,0.037712,0.011 305,0.042162,-0.006136,0.0047,-0.003923,0.012271,0.023873,0.006333,0.007943,-0.019921,-0.016928,0.0019,0.00769,0.015646,-0.000633,0.002011,0.001376,-0.010606,-0.001113,0.002342,-0.005663,-0.001437
SVN_IA_BA:SVN_MIA_oSouth,0.126344,0.147252,0.04110 6,-0.006783,0.052625,-0.015618,-0.002585,-0.000923,0.024543,0.047564,0.001949,0.013938,-0.023637,-0.0139,-0.007057,0.008353,0.003781,0.00266,0.008422,-0.00963,0.003369,0.00507,-0.011585,-0.006748,-0.005389
HRV_IA_BA:HRV_EBA,0.119514,0.148267,0.015839,-0.01615,0.032621,-0.010877,-0.00329,-0.001385,0.006954,0.014943,0.004547,0.011989,-0.023042,-0.009909,-0.002307,-0.008751,0.001434,-0.003547,0.006536,0.003252,0.000499,-0.001855,0.003204,-0.001566,-0.017364
HRV_IA_BA:HRV_EIA,0.1276082,0.1472518,0.0320973,-0.0011843,0.0354596,-0.0009297,0.0016711,0.002359,0.0107942,0.0275177,-0.0005954,0.008992,-0.0170796,-0.0077679,-0.0019151,-0.0021068,0.003868,0.0031109,0.0071369,-0.0045022,-0.0027036,0.0016899,0.0006983,5.34e-05,-0.0025813
HRV_IA_BA:HRV_IA,0.132035,0.151314,0.033941,-0.01615,0.024928,-0.005857,-0.006345,0.007154,0.003681,0.028976,0.001786,0.011 69,-0.02111,-0.001376,-0.005972,-0.008486,-0.006519,0.004941,0.005531,-0.014257,-0.001872,0.00507,0.001479,0.00253,0.003353
HRV_IA_BA:HRV_MBA,0.1256931,0.1462363,0.0374426,-0.0002307,0.0324894,-0.0021114,-0.003995,6.6e-05,0.0077427,0.026997,0.0009279,0.0104051,-0.0200903,-0.0083754,0.0006397,-0.0001323,0.005737,0.001267,0.005836,-0.005985,-0.0028344,0.0053346,-0.0018134,0.0033567,-0.0033017
HRV_IA_BA:HRV_Jag_MBA,0.1242297,0.143625,0.0679356 ,0.0359453,0.0617696,0.0105183,0.0032229,0.0108786 ,0.0213873,0.0144487,-0.0022271,-0.0040037,0.0050543,0.0107543,-0.0123894,-0.0005491,0.0063143,0.0037646,0.0043456,0.0046809, 0.008895,0.0020316,-0.0049476,-0.0252531,-0.0022069
HRV_LIA_La_Tene,0.130897,0.147252,0.038843,0,0.038 776,0,-0.001645,0.004846,0.009613,0.022051,0.002761,0.008 243,-0.01115,-0.003165,-0.004886,0.001061,0.012647,0.002534,0.008925,-0.006878,0.006613,0.005317,0.003697,-0.00253,-0.003113
AUT_IA_La_Tene,0.129379,0.1479287,0.046386,0.00484 5,0.043085,0.0035327,0.0025067,0.0059997,0.015271, 0.0221717,-0.0011367,0.0065443,-0.0104557,-0.0031193,0.001493,-0.0047733,-0.0034333,0.005701,0.0079607,-0.001959,0.0017883,-4.13e-05,-0.003533,-0.0011647,-0.0044307
SRB_BA_Maros,0.124826,0.1455593,0.045003,0.0120587 ,0.039187,0.004741,0.0050133,0.0036153,0.0118623,0 .0208963,0.000433,0.0057947,-0.0149153,-0.0054133,-0.002624,0.0032703,0.0108653,0.000591,0.0042317,0. 0008753,-0.002662,0.005688,-0.002383,-0.007792,0.000998
SRB_Mokrin_EBA_Maros,0.1269128,0.1463747,0.0505685 ,0.0155334,0.0455889,0.0022692,0.0015702,0.0032096 ,0.0136193,0.021537,0.0005832,0.0024388,-0.0068181,0.0010197,-0.0076868,-0.0005365,0.0050909,0.0014396,0.0032282,0.0005457, 0.0007657,0.0044684,-0.0035798,-0.0104887,-0.0027924
BGR_IA:I5769,0.126344,0.157407,0.007165,-0.051034,0.029852,-0.02259,0.00423,-0.001385,0.007772,0.032074,-0.001461,0.005695,-0.013974,-0.003028,-0.015065,-0.001458,0.01369,0.006968,0.006285,-0.014757,-0.006239,0.004699,-0.007888,0.003494,-0.008861
DNK_Jutland_IA,0.136588,0.13405,0.070522,0.069445, 0.036007,0.022869,0.009635,0.013615,0.012885,-0.004374,0.006333,0.019633,-0.014271,-0.021744,0.015472,0.010607,0.001304,0.007095,0.001 76,0.02101,0.014974,-0.000247,0.000986,0.025666,-0.00467
GRC_Mycenaean,0.107847,0.1563915,-0.008108,-0.0646808,0.0216962,-0.0271222,-0.0005288,-0.0021345,0.00542,0.047336,0.005521,0.0169352,-0.012785,-0.0006195,-0.0163882,-0.0098118,0.0210245,0.0036108,0.0123188,-0.0039705,-0.0058648,0.0001858,-0.0065935,0.0011448,-0.0007185
Scythian_HUN,0.1281143,0.1398044,0.0621411,0.03186 93,0.0420932,0.0106599,0.0011489,0.005974,0.009067 3,0.0052242,-0.0014436,-0.0006828,0.0029897,0.0011317,-0.005655,0.0061284,0.0073016,0.0012247,0.0042738,0 .002932,0.0002357,0.000426,0.0004244,-0.0088231,-0.0027674
Scythian_MDA,0.1189452,0.1210172,0.0215587,-0.0114665,0.0141048,-0.003951,0.0019977,-0.0041152,-0.0018065,0.021018,0.0008122,0.0028475,-0.0096877,-0.0022708,-0.0063108,0.0022098,0.00452,0.0035473,0.0094065,-0.0026263,-0.008298,0.0063063,-0.0011503,0.002149,0.0005985

TARGET populations:


Slovenian,0.1288476,0.1352686,0.056191,0.0338504,0 .0349602,0.0126616,0.0065332,0.0069688,0.0031086,-0.004483,-0.0031828,-0.0022482,0.0022298,0.0151936,-0.0086318,-0.002201,0.0002086,0.0013682,0.0078184,-0.0011508,-0.004018,-0.0027946,0.0014052,-0.001976,0.0021792
Croatian,0.128051,0.1338467,0.0518917,0.0314925,0. 035822,0.0125223,0.0060161,0.0067381,0.0018408,-0.0058862,-0.001153,-0.0023827,0.0047275,0.0127851,-0.0066365,-0.0022011,0.0027512,-0.0007223,0.0018101,-0.0007503,-0.005166,-0.0024236,0.0044246,-0.0010966,0.0001796
Bosnian,0.1290754,0.1348622,0.0449528,0.0248064,0. 0312058,0.0098726,0.004841,0.0052152,-0.0024136,-0.001859,0.0004224,-0.0028176,0.00556,0.0162396,-0.0125404,0.0010078,0.0066756,-0.000583,0.004827,0.0030266,-0.0050912,-0.0034376,0.0075182,0.001229,-0.0016286
Serbian,0.1273334,0.137229,0.040024,0.0148299,0.03 14974,0.0045957,0.0048738,0.006672,-0.0011737,-7.9e-06,-0.0022946,-0.001251,0.0034128,0.012434,-0.0128875,-0.0008358,0.0040476,0.0005894,0.0043011,-0.0024468,-0.0083168,-0.0017151,0.0048925,0.000372,-0.0020097
Macedonian,0.1252056,0.1413618,0.0305468,0.0042636 ,0.027328,0.005522,0.0063922,0.0037382,0.0002864,0 .0033532,-3.24e-05,6e-05,0.0026462,0.011588,-0.0157436,-0.0011934,0.0079794,0.0006586,0.0042986,-0.0044772,-0.0116544,-0.0006678,0.0039934,-0.0009884,-0.0003352
Montenegrin,0.1263436,0.136487,0.039673,0.013889,0 .0318826,0.0074744,0.004512,0.0058612,0.0001228,0. 002515,-0.001429,-0.0006592,-0.000684,0.0105144,-0.0129208,0.0029436,0.0087096,-0.0013428,0.0070894,-0.0012758,-0.0048414,0.0012364,0.005497,0.0016388,0.0007904
Bulgarian,0.12475,0.1348622,0.0256442,0.0053618,0. 02462,-0.0008368,0.005499,0.0030458,-0.0002862,0.0069978,-0.0033452,0.0008992,0.002111,0.0086426,-0.0143046,-0.0022274,0.0070928,0.0020016,0.0031424,-0.0037018,-0.0046168,-0.000544,0.00281,-0.0024824,-0.0010776

^^^ SUMMARY:

Slovenia = 60% Slavic Y-DNA versus 52% Slavic auDNA
Croats = 62% Slavic Y-DNA versus 51% Slavic auDNA
Bosnia = 57% Slavic Y-DNA versus 57% Slavic auDNA
Serbs = 53% Slavic Y-DNA versus 50% Slavic auDNA
Macedonians = 44% Slavic Y-DNA versus 44% Slavic auDNA
Montenegrins = 38% Slavic Y-DNA versus 43% Slavic auDNA
Bulgaria = 38% Slavic Y-DNA versus 37% Slavic auDNA

Ghegs - no Ghegs in Global25
Kosovars - no Kosovars in G25

https://i.imgur.com/Jrgt5Va.png

bce
04-11-2022, 11:55 AM
I am not sure how reliable are data taken from Romanian Piatra Neamt.

I think that study had a low sample number, something like 50. maybe the exact numbers for Piatra Neamt are lower, but there is still a peak in that wider region, which I believe is related to the founder effect of Ipotesti-Candesti.

Tomenable
04-11-2022, 12:05 PM
^^^ Actually, I've decided to start a separate thread about it:

https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?26058-Proto-Slavic-Y-DNA-vs-Proto-Slavic-auDNA-in-the-Balkans

Tomenable
04-11-2022, 12:39 PM
I integrated this new data with my old data from 2017 for I2a.
This is the result:

https://i.imgur.com/Q1UvwdY.png

South Slavic distribution looks like a founder effect because it consists almost entirely of PH908 clade. Other Slavic areas have very diverse clades.
I am not sure how reliable are data taken from Romanian Piatra Neamt.

Do you think that South Slavic PH908 originated from East Slavs or from West Slavs?

Because it is known that both East Slavs and West Slavs migrated to the Balkans.

It is said that the so called White Croats & White Serbs came from West Slavic areas.

Tomenable
04-11-2022, 12:53 PM
R1a:
https://i.imgur.com/DwYLFA4.png

^^^ Why is Lusatia so low in your map? Sorbs have 65% R1a (80 / 123).

In Austria the city of Graz has the highest frequency of R1a - 42,9% - check:

https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?25980-Early-German-Merovingian-Ancient-DNA-and-Reconstructions&p=838533&viewfull=1#post838533

R1a frequencies for selected sub-populations of Poland with high % of R1a:

Lodz = 68.14% (77 / 113) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%81%C3%B3d%C5%BA_Voivodeship
Cracow = 64% (64 / 100) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krak%C3%B3w
Kashubians = 63.4% (170 / 268) - you have already included them
Lublin = 62.3% (193 / 310) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lublin

(R1a frequency peaks right in the middle of Poland, in Lodz region at >68%)

=====

And this group has just slightly >50% (sample has people from 4 locations):

Zakopane + Nowy Targ + Limanowa + Nowy Sacz = 52.1% (118 / 226).

Later I will post more of regional R1a frequencies data.

Tomenable
04-11-2022, 12:55 PM
Lithuanians have more of R1a than Latvians, they have 42,2% (127 / 301).

Riverman
04-11-2022, 01:07 PM
I think its pretty likely it was picked up in or around the North Carpathians, but when and how exactly, and what ethnicity they were before, is really hard to trace back. Its hard in that area with much wider spread haplogroups in the pre-Slavic area, but this one obviously seems to have been rare throughout most of its existence until it had its glorious time together with some R-Z280 branches. The only thing almost for sure to say is that R-Z280 branches were at the core and root of the Proto-Baltoslavs. Anything else, especially about groups which joined late and expanded from almost nothing, remains conjecture until there are lucky ancient finds. And like usual in that time and place, cremation horizons don't help...

ph2ter
04-11-2022, 01:15 PM
Data on the maps are from 2017. That's why.

Dorkymon
05-27-2022, 09:21 PM
Data on the maps are from 2017. That's why.

You can PM me the data for Moldova and Romania, and I will update it.