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MikeWhalen
06-20-2014, 04:49 PM
This is probably the scariest thing out there, and as a virus, it is always mutating...if it ever successfully mutates to a much more easily transmissible type (like it did in a lab outside Washington DC in the 80's), we will have a real world wide zombie apocalypse...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/20/ebola-west-africa_n_5515140.html?utm_hp_ref=canada&ir=Canada

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — The Ebola outbreak ravaging West Africa is "totally out of control," according to a senior official for Doctors Without Borders, who says the medical group is stretched to the limit in its capacity to respond.

International organizations and the governments involved need to send in more health experts and to increase the public education messages about how to stop the spread of the disease, Bart Janssens, the director of operations for the group in Brussels, told The Associated Press on Friday.

Ebola has already been linked to more than 330 deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, according to the latest numbers from the World Health Organization.

"The reality is clear that the epidemic is now in a second wave," Janssens said. "And, for me, it is totally out of control."

The outbreak, which began in Guinea either late last year or early this year, had appeared to slow before picking up pace again in recent weeks, including spreading to the Liberian capital for the first time.

"I'm absolutely convinced that this epidemic is far from over and will continue to kill a considerable amount of people, so this will definitely end up the biggest ever," he said.

The multiple locations of the outbreak and its movement across borders make it one of the "most challenging Ebola outbreaks ever," Fadela Chaib, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said earlier in the week.

The outbreak shows no sign of abating and that governments and international organizations were "far from winning this battle," Unni Krishnan, head of disaster preparedness and response for Plan International, said Friday.

But Janssens' description of the Ebola outbreak was even more alarming, and he warned that the governments affected had not recognized the gravity of the situation. He criticized the World Health Organization for not doing enough to prod leaders and said that it needs to bring in more experts to do the vital work of tracing all of the people who have been in contact with the sick.

"There needs to be a real political commitment that this is a very big emergency," he said. "Otherwise, it will continue to spread, and for sure it will spread to more countries."

The World Health Organization did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

But Tolbert Nyenswah, Liberia's deputy minister of health, said that people in the highest levels of government are working to contain the outbreak as proved by the fact that that Liberia had a long period with no new cases before this second wave.

The governments involved and international agencies are definitely struggling to keep up with the severity of the outbreak, said Krishnan of Plan, which is providing equipment to the three affected countries and spreading information about how people can protect themselves against the disease. But he noted that the disease is striking in one of the world's poorest regions, where public health systems are already fragile.

"The affected countries are at the bottom of the human development index," he said in an emailed statement. "Ebola is seriously crippling their capacities to respond effectively in containing the spread."

The situation requires a more effective response, said Janssens of Doctors Without Borders. With more than 40 international staff currently on the ground and four treatment centers, Doctors Without Borders has reached its limit to respond, he said.

"It's the first time in an Ebola epidemic where (Doctors Without Borders) teams cannot cover all the needs, at least for treatment centers," he said.

It is unclear, for instance, if the group will be able to set up a treatment center in Liberia, like the ones it is running in in Guinea and Sierra Leone, he said. For one thing, Janssens said, the group doesn't have any more experienced people in its network to call on. As it is, some of its people have already done three tours on the ground.

Janssens said this outbreak is particularly challenging because it began in an area where people are very mobile and has spread to even more densely populated areas, like the capitals of Guinea and Liberia. The disease typically strikes sparsely populated areas in central or eastern Africa, where it spreads less easily, he said.

By contrast, the epicenter of this outbreak is near a major regional transport hub, the Guinean city of Gueckedou.

He said the only way to stop the disease's spread is to persuade people to come forward when symptoms occur and to avoid touching the sick and dead.

"There is still not a real change of behavior of the people," he said. "So a lot of sick people still remain in hiding or continue to travel. And there is still news that burial practices are remaining dangerous."

Mehrdad
06-20-2014, 05:29 PM
It could easily become a global outbreak if it's not contained. Definitely scary man. I feel sorry for the many people affected by this virus and the lack of medical access to these areas.

MikeWhalen
06-20-2014, 08:45 PM
as I understand it, the last 30+ years, there have been many 'micro' outbreaks, but often deep in the center of Africa in smaller villages (via 'bushmeat') in which while easy to spread via a few of the highways for a ways, was really a long and tough logistical trail for it to 'get out' to the rest of the world.
so by the time authorities and experts got there, it was pretty easy to isolate the area and let the outbreak burn itself out

if its happening where there is a much shorter or easier logistical trail to the rest of the world...yikes!

I read this book years ago by a reporter that was involved in a major breakout of Ebola and it was terrifying in spots...a great read that I understood was both true and well researched
http://www.amazon.ca/The-Hot-Zone-Terrifying-Story/dp/0385479565

M

warwick
07-30-2014, 02:36 AM
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07291401/Ebola_Zaire_Guinea_SL.html

This is very important:

"Novel Zaire Ebola Sub-Clade"

It is a new strain of the virus, everyone.

warwick
07-30-2014, 02:47 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/27/world/africa/ebola-american-doctor-infected/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

2nd American infected

George Chandler
07-30-2014, 03:49 AM
One positive is that at least it isn't airborne..many people don't seem worried about it arriving in North America but with a possible 3 week incubation period for the host a lot can happen.

warwick
07-30-2014, 04:01 AM
A doctor who was on the front lines fighting the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone has died from complications of the disease, Doctors Without Borders said Tuesday.

Dr. Sheik Humarr Khan fell ill early last week while overseeing Ebola treatment at Kenema Government Hospital, about 185 miles east of Sierra Leone's capital city, Freetown.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/29/health/ebola-doctor-dies/index.html?hpt=he_c1

MikeWhalen
07-30-2014, 11:26 AM
as I understand it, the virus is always mutating, always seeking to improve itself

...it did mutate into an airborne version back in the late 80's in Virginia, USA of all places...in a 'monkey house'.... a storage facility for scientific end use monkeys

...the good news is when that particular strain mutated to airborne, it also mutated and lost its killer nature so those that got sick, all survived...but talk about a dodged bullet!

Mike


One positive is that at least it isn't airborne..many people don't seem worried about it arriving in North America but with a possible 3 week incubation period for the host a lot can happen.

George Chandler
07-30-2014, 06:26 PM
It makes you wonder how many groups like the Boko have considered trying to infect themselves to use as a weapon. The idea of a suicide carrier is really nothing new.

George

MikeWhalen
07-30-2014, 08:09 PM
well thats a nice scary thought to go to sleep with...only they would infect the girls they kidnapped and send them back...can u imagine the press conference?

M


It makes you wonder how many groups like the Boko have considered trying to infect themselves to use as a weapon. The idea of a suicide carrier is really nothing new.

George

George Chandler
07-30-2014, 09:50 PM
well thats a nice scary thought to go to sleep with...only they would infect the girls they kidnapped and send them back...can u imagine the press conference?

M

Another one of those things which keep people up at night. My "guess" would be anyone wanting to use it as a weapon would be going to a western country. Wouldn't take much more than good looking people going to a night club looking for unprotected sex. How transmissible would it be for someone to cut the inside of the mouth slightly and even kiss another person? Someone preparing your food who is infected? Once these things start jumping boarders it's pretty tough to contain. Hopefully the horse hasn't left the barn but it seems to be looking that way.

George

George Chandler
07-30-2014, 09:51 PM
It's never a good sign when 2 groups of volunteer doctors treating the infected decides to pull out as it's too dangerous.

George Chandler
08-17-2014, 09:18 PM
So if the initial reports are true about the gunmen raiding a treatment center in Liberia..you have to ask yourself who would enter a quarantine area and remove contaminated, soiled bedding and matresses?..if the reports are correct. If the intent was to free family or friends from the quarantine camp why take mattresses and bedding?

George

GailT
09-14-2014, 02:32 AM
This is probably the scariest thing out there, and as a virus, it is always mutating...if it ever successfully mutates to a much more easily transmissible type (like it did in a lab outside Washington DC in the 80's), we will have a real world wide zombie apocalypse...

This has become much, much more serious since your June 20th post. The international response has been slow and ineffective, especially in Liberia, and it is close to spiraling out of control, literally, to the point where it will not be possible to mount any sort of response. We need an immediate, massive intervention, but no one really seems to know how to respond.

Quoting from Michael Osterholm's Sept 11 opinion piece in the times (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/opinion/what-were-afraid-to-say-about-ebola.html):


The second possibility is one that virologists are loath to discuss openly but are definitely considering in private: that an Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air. You can now get Ebola only through direct contact with bodily fluids. But viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice. If certain mutations occurred, it would mean that just breathing would put one at risk of contracting Ebola. Infections could spread quickly to every part of the globe, as the H1N1 influenza virus did in 2009, after its birth in Mexico.

This is much more of a threat than ISIS/ISIL or anything else happening in the world now.

warwick
09-14-2014, 04:41 PM
This is one of the best blogs on emerging viruses:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/

Recent post:
September 14, 2014
Ebola in West Africa: A quarter-million cases by the end of the year?
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2014/09/ebola-in-west-africa-a-quarter-million-cases-by-the-end-of-the-year.html

warwick
09-23-2014, 03:29 AM
On Tuesday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to release its own predictions for only Liberia and Sierra Leone — the two West African countries that recently have shown the steadiest and most alarming spread of cases.

The CDC calculations are based, in part, on assumptions that cases have been dramatically underreported. Other projections haven't made the same kind of attempt to quantify illnesses that may have been missed in official counts.

CDC scientists conclude there may be as many as 21,000 reported and unreported cases in just those two countries as soon as the end of this month, according to a draft version of the report obtained by The Associated Press. They also predict that the two countries could have a staggering 550,000 to 1.4 million cases by late January.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/09/22/world-health-organization-ebola/16076067/

warwick
09-23-2014, 03:53 AM
Getting published in a journal like Science should be an incredibly exciting time for any researcher. Unfortunately, before the paper “Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak” could be published online yesterday, 5 of the 50 co-authors fell ill and died from the Ebola virus disease (EVD) raging on in West Africa. As of August 28, there have been 3,069 suspected or confirmed cases of Ebola across West Africa, resulting in 1,552 deaths.

http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/ebola-claims-lives-five-study-co-authors-paper-published

Alanson
09-23-2014, 04:40 AM
It needs to be kept out and confined to an area that has no people.

warwick
09-23-2014, 05:00 PM
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/medical_examiner/2014/09/ebola_outbreak_status_and_predictions_the_virus_th e_response_the_biggest.html

Another article on the Ebola epidemic.

warwick
09-25-2014, 12:24 AM
The Ebola CFR based on outcomes (1578 deaths and 300 recovered cases) is 84% (1578/1878), which is among the highest reported Ebola CFRs (only the 90% for the 2003 outbreak and the 88% for the 1976 outbreaks in the DR Congo were higher).

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09231401/Ebola_Liberia_CFR_84.html

Meaning:

84% of those who are infected with Ebola have died.

Erik
09-25-2014, 12:46 AM
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09231401/Ebola_Liberia_CFR_84.html

Meaning:

84% of those who are infected with Ebola have died.
I'm surprised that the number is not higher considering what Ebola does...

This situation is really ironic for me because when I was around 8-10, I was interested in diseases and my dad told me about what Ebola was. I then asked him if there would ever be an outbreak and if it would ever effect us and he said that there wouldn't be an outbreak here. The both ironic and sad thing is that there might be one...

Humanist
09-30-2014, 09:22 PM
CNN

First case of Ebola diagnosed in the U.S.
(http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/30/health/ebola-us/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)

A patient being treated at a Dallas hospital was diagnosed with the Ebola virus, the CDC says.

Erik
09-30-2014, 09:24 PM
CNN

First case of Ebola diagnosed in the U.S.
(http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/30/health/ebola-us/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)
I just saw.

This really is terrible.

Gary Corbett
10-01-2014, 01:59 AM
It WOULD have to be where I live...

MikeWhalen
10-01-2014, 11:33 AM
time to go camping Gary

Africa is such a basket case, many feared it would just keep going, expanding... hopefully our dopey leaders get their act together and don't @#@#around with this thing now its in North America

M

George Chandler
10-01-2014, 02:54 PM
I find it interesting how before this outbreak you would hear how infectious this disease was. You are seeing all the medical professionals following protocols suiting up and yet still getting infected. The media experts reported back in Aug that this wasn't going to be a problem that it would unlikely reach North America and if it did we would easily stop it. Like I told my sister..they are basing containment on previous outbreaks in remote African villages but forget to mention that most of those villages were wiped out.

The medical community was supposed to be ready for this and yet how does a guy visiting from Liberia enter a hospital with symptoms and is sent home? Honestly I would lock down the state of Texas, stop air travel, vehicle travel and keep everyone inside for 7 days at least to identify people. Not sure that would even help now as it's probably too late.

Think about someone infected using a banking pad or even money and passing it around. I don't think it takes too much to infect another.

George

warwick
10-01-2014, 04:30 PM
Could a large stockpile of ZMapp have halted the spread of Ebola? No one can say. What’s certain is that the U.S. government hasn’t done a good job taking the idea behind ZMapp and turning it into a treatment. The technology for antibody cocktails such as ZMapp has “been around for a few decades,” says Robert Garry, a professor of microbiology at Tulane University. “This is something that, given the emergency, the government could have moved a little faster on, quite honestly.”

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-09-24/ebola-drug-zmapps-development-delayed-by-pentagon-agency

Táltos
10-01-2014, 04:59 PM
I find it interesting how before this outbreak you would hear how infectious this disease was. You are seeing all the medical professionals following protocols suiting up and yet still getting infected. The media experts reported back in Aug that this wasn't going to be a problem that it would unlikely reach North America and if it did we would easily stop it. Like I told my sister..they are basing containment on previous outbreaks in remote African villages but forget to mention that most of those villages were wiped out.

The medical community was supposed to be ready for this and yet how does a guy visiting from Liberia enter a hospital with symptoms and is sent home? Honestly I would lock down the state of Texas, stop air travel, vehicle travel and keep everyone inside for 7 days at least to identify people. Not sure that would even help now as it's probably too late.

Think about someone infected using a banking pad or even money and passing it around. I don't think it takes too much to infect another.

George
Here's what the CDC has to say:

Is there a danger of Ebola spreading in the U.S.?

Ebola is not spread through casual contact; therefore, the risk of an outbreak in the U.S. is very low. We know how to stop Ebola’s further spread: thorough case finding, isolation of ill people, contacting people exposed to the ill person, and further isolation of contacts if they develop symptoms. The U.S. public health and medical systems have had prior experience with sporadic cases of diseases such as Ebola. In the past decade, the United States had 5 imported cases of Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (VHF) diseases similar to Ebola (1 Marburg, 4 Lassa). None resulted in any transmission in the United States.

Are people who were on the plane with this patient at risk?

A person must have symptoms to spread Ebola to others. The ill person did not exhibit symptoms of Ebola during the flights from West Africa and CDC does not recommend that people on the same commercial airline flights undergo monitoring. The person reported developing symptoms five days after the return flight. CDC and public health officials in Texas are taking precautions to identify people who have had close personal contact with the ill person and health care professionals have been reminded to use meticulous infection control at all times.
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/qa.html

Well unfortunately I would not doubt there are not going to be more cases in the U.S., or other countries due to the fact that air travel is so common in our society.

George Chandler
10-01-2014, 05:23 PM
The statement "Ebola is not spread through casual contact; therefore, the risk of an outbreak in the U.S. is very low."

Yes and the expert statement of ISIS isn't a significant threat was also mentioned months ago...

I understand not wanting to cause panic but that can work against containment. If the above statement was true with medical professionals using all the precautions and still getting it passed on to them it doesn't tell the truth. It's highly infectious and has a long incubation time. They need to contain it now and make sure anyone entering North America from Africa is put in quarantine. The CDC has had experience with containing prior outbreaks because it was in small remote and isolated villages and what happened to those people? Of course it didn't spread and they were lucky but this is different as it's entered highly populated areas.

Táltos
10-01-2014, 05:50 PM
The statement "Ebola is not spread through casual contact; therefore, the risk of an outbreak in the U.S. is very low."

Yes and the expert statement of ISIS isn't a significant threat was also mentioned months ago...

I understand not wanting to cause panic but that can work against containment. If the above statement was true with medical professionals using all the precautions and still getting it passed on to them it doesn't tell the truth. It's highly infectious and has a long incubation time. They need to contain it now and make sure anyone entering North America from Africa is put in quarantine. The CDC has had experience with containing prior outbreaks because it was in small remote and isolated villages and what happened to those people? Of course it didn't spread and they were lucky but this is different as it's entered highly populated areas.
Well my favorite recommendation from the CDC and it is their first one: Wash hands frequently or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer. Yet they say "Ebola is not spread through casual contact"

I was reading on ABC news that this person came down with symptoms on Sept 24, but did not seek treatment for it until Sept. 26. So who did he expose to this in that amount of time? I'm not putting the link because the website would show the story, then disappear on me. Not sure why. :/ Anyway, yes it is not good for everyone to panic, but I really hope that the powers that be have a handle on this too.

Táltos
10-01-2014, 06:51 PM
I was reading on ABC news that this person came down with symptoms on Sept 24, but did not seek treatment for it until Sept. 26. So who did he expose to this in that amount of time?
Well when I went back to see if the story would stay up for ABC News, I found this particularly upsetting answer.


US Ebola Patient May Have Exposed School Age Children, Governor Said
Oct 1, 2014, 1:50 PM
Five school-aged children in Texas may have been exposed to Ebola by the first patient diagnosed with the virus in the United States, officials said today.

The children had contact with the patient and are being monitored at home, Texas Gov. Rick Perry said today in a press conference.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/us-ebola-patient-exposed-school-age-children-governor/story?id=25885934

George Chandler
10-01-2014, 07:38 PM
It's probably better to use it and be bleaching every door handle and light switch (this coming from a non-germaphobe) than not. When you look at the medical professionals they are double gloving.

I would really like someone from the CDC saying these things to have an infected person cough on and touch a pin pad use it then rub their eyes and demonstrate to us how low of a risk this is for infection. Have an Ebola infected patient handle and cough on some money and handle it then rub theirs eyes. Let them put their money where their mouth is so to speak. People were claiming it was such a low risk of spreading to another country in Africa months ago. Even if the incubation period is up to 21 days and he was only showing symptoms 2 days prior to going to the hospital (which he was sent home from) that can do a lot of damage over those two days with something this infectious.

Panic no..realistic honesty yes.

George

George Chandler
10-01-2014, 07:42 PM
Well when I went back to see if the story would stay up for ABC News, I found this particularly upsetting answer.


http://abcnews.go.com/Health/us-ebola-patient-exposed-school-age-children-governor/story?id=25885934

I saw that one. Did you see the one where the African orphans who have lost both parents are being rejected by remaining family members out of fear? If that doesn't choke you up I'm not sure what will.

Táltos
10-01-2014, 07:55 PM
It's probably better to use it and be bleaching every door handle and light switch (this coming from a non-germaphobe) than not. When you look at the medical professionals they are double gloving.

I would really like someone from the CDC saying these things to have an infected person cough on and touch a pin pad use it then rub their eyes and demonstrate to us how low of a risk this is for infection. Have an Ebola infected patient handle and cough on some money and handle it then rub theirs eyes. Let them put their money where their mouth is so to speak. People were claiming it was such a low risk of spreading to another country in Africa months ago. Even if the incubation period is up to 21 days and he was only showing symptoms 2 days prior to going to the hospital (which he was sent home from) that can do a lot of damage over those two days with something this infectious.

Panic no..realistic honesty yes.

George
Believe me George, I agree better to be hand washing, and bleaching door knobs! I work in healthcare, and I am a germaphobe. My brother and others like to pick on me for this. When you work around some of the things right in your face like I do, you have to be. I agree the rubbing the eyes, and nose is one of the worst things that people can to to introduce nasty bugs in. Most people do these things without even thinking about it.


Did you see the one where the African orphans who have lost both parents are being rejected by remaining family members out of fear? If that doesn't choke you up I'm not sure what will.
Yes I saw that. Heartbreaking.

MikeWhalen
10-02-2014, 02:59 PM
2nd possible US victim, knew the first guy that got it and up to 18 more from him!!!

What a drag, the 1rst guy that got it was from being a good guy according to this account...

Second U.S. Person May Have Ebola

Health officials in Dallas said they are closely monitoring a possible second Ebola patient who had close contact with the Liberian man identified as the first case of the disease discovered inside the United States. A health official said “there may be another case that is a close associate” of the Liberian, Thomas Eric Duncan, 40, who remains in critical condition and in isolation at a Dallas hospital. Duncan is the first person to develop symptoms outside of Africa during the current epidemic that has officially killed more than 3,300 people. Duncan had direct contact with a woman infected with Ebola in Monrovia, Liberia, four days before he left for the U.S. Duncan took 19-year-old Marthalene Williams, who was seven months pregnant, to a hospital in a taxi. They were turned away and returned to Williams’s home that night, where she died at around 3 a.m. Duncan carried Williams back to the family home that evening, neighbors said, because she was so sick she couldn’t walk.

Duncan first arrived at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas on Sept. 26. The hospital failed to diagnose him with Ebola, even though he indicated he had been in Liberia, and sent him home with a prescription for antibiotics. He was readmitted to the hospital two days later and placed in an isolation unit. On Wednesday, health officials announced that up to 18 people were exposed to the virus via Duncan, including children. In addition to the person officials said may be a second Ebola patient, five Dallas-area students are being monitored for the disease. The children had been in school since they were exposed to the virus, but were removed. “The students did not have any symptoms and so the odds of them passing on any sort of virus is very low,” said Dallas Independent School District Superintendent Mike Miles.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the U.S. is days away from settling the critical question of how hospitals should handle and dispose of medical waste from Ebola patients. Experts have warned that conflicting U.S. regulations over how such waste should be transported could make it difficult for hospitals to safely care for patients with Ebola.

Mike

Táltos
10-02-2014, 04:04 PM
Duncan first arrived at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas on Sept. 26. The hospital failed to diagnose him with Ebola, even though he indicated he had been in Liberia, and sent him home with a prescription for antibiotics. He was readmitted to the hospital two days later and placed in an isolation unit.
Mike
What part of the red flag was not waving in this instance??


Experts have warned that conflicting U.S. regulations over how such waste should be transported could make it difficult for hospitals to safely care for patients with Ebola.
Even though we have a better hospital infrastructure here in North America than Africa, our government will make a circus out of this.

Humanist
10-03-2014, 01:22 AM
CNN

NBC News cameraman has Ebola, network reports (http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/02/health/ebola-nbc-news-cameraman/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)


An American cameraman working for NBC News in Liberia has tested positive for Ebola, the network reported.

He will return to the United States for treatment.

MikeWhalen
10-03-2014, 11:20 AM
jeeeeezzz!!
this shit will get out of control if the various gov's dont step in and force some drastic rules and containment procedures

despite some of the 'move along, nothing to see here' type pacifying announcements from the experts, its pretty clear that Ebola is easier to catch than some other 'blood contact' (HIV) diseases.
I have read several times now where some of the experts are admitting that there is something they dont quite understand about the transmission lines of Ebola and that's why several of the western victims got it when they did not have a 'major' or catastrophic contact with the disease, but merely a minor brush with it and still got it

M

MikeWhalen
10-03-2014, 12:04 PM
and this really dosnt help anything
.....https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/one-horrifying-sentence-explains-why-213957727.html

"One Horrifying Sentence Explains Why Ebola Has Spread So Quickly
Business Insider
By Pamela Engel – Wed, 1 Oct, 2014 5:39 PM EDT

A vivid and terrifying story in The New York Times helps explain why the Ebola virus has spread so quickly across West Africa.
The hospitals in the region simply aren't equipped to deal with the disease at the rate that it's spreading. They don't have the right tools or resources to care for existing patients, let alone stem the spread of the disease.
One sentence from the Times story illustrates this well. Adam Nossiter writes from Sierra Leone that at one hospital isolation ward in Makeni, "Nurses, some not wearing gloves and others in street clothes, clustered by the door as pools of the patients’ bodily fluids spread to the threshold."
Ebola is spread via bodily fluids, putting healthcare workers who are not properly protected at extraordinary risk.
From the Times story:
A worker kicked another man on the floor to see if he was still alive. The man’s foot moved and the team kept going. It was 1:30 in the afternoon.
In the next ward, a 4-year-old girl lay on the floor in urine, motionless, bleeding from her mouth, her eyes open. A corpse lay in the corner — a young woman, legs akimbo, who had died overnight. A small child stood in a cot watching as the team took the body away, stepping around a little boy lying immobile next to black buckets of vomit. They sprayed the body, and the little girl on the floor, with chlorine as they left.
The nurses at these hospitals are "lightly trained and minimally protected" and Ebola patients are dying "surrounded by pools of infectious waste," Nossiter reports.
Daniel Bausch, a doctor and associate professor in the department of tropical medicine at Tulane, went to Sierra Leone in July and saw many of the same conditions.
He told Business Insider in August that in some hospitals, there is no running water, soap, or clean needles, which are all crucial to controlling the outbreak and preventing further spread of disease.
"The scale of this outbreak has just outstripped the resources," Bausch said.
Ebola begins with flu-like symptoms and in many cases escalates to internal and external bleeding and organ failure. The disease has a high fatality rate, especially in countries that are ill-equipped to care for infected patients.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced this week that the first case of Ebola had been diagnosed in the US, but we're much more well-positioned to prevent the spread of the disease.
The US has the resources to properly contain the virus, which spreads through bodily fluids, not the air.
West Africa is a different story. Ebola has killed 3,338 and infected at least 7,178 people in the region so far, and those numbers continue to climb.
" There are few signs yet that the [Ebola] epidemic in West Africa is being brought under control," the World Health Organization noted in its latest report."

Mike

Táltos
10-03-2014, 01:46 PM
jeeeeezzz!!
this shit will get out of control if the various gov's dont step in and force some drastic rules and containment procedures

despite some of the 'move along, nothing to see here' type pacifying announcements from the experts, its pretty clear that Ebola is easier to catch than some other 'blood contact' (HIV) diseases.
I have read several times now where some of the experts are admitting that there is something they dont quite understand about the transmission lines of Ebola and that's why several of the western victims got it when they did not have a 'major' or catastrophic contact with the disease, but merely a minor brush with it and still got it

M
Mike I was watching the news last night, and they reported that one of the questions on the questionnaire (to travel out of the country) that the man who brought Ebola to the States had to answer was: Have you been within 1 meter of anyone who has Ebola? Obviously the man answered no, and some media outlets are even speculating that he might not have known the woman he helped was infected. But still goes to show why we should not rely on self reporting and in this case governments need to step up to contain it. I have read where I think it is France, Britain, and Saudi Arabia are not allowing travelers in from the region.

So yes sounds easier to contract than HIV for a blood and bodily fluid scenario. However I read on the CDC website that if you do get it and survive, this nasty critter has been found in semen for up to three months! http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/qas.html

Also when I went to find out more about this questionnaire, I found a link for a PDF from the CDC dated-Aug 30,2014. See page 13, and question about spending time in the same room, within 1 meter of anyone infected with Ebola. http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/pdf/ebola-exit-screening.pdf

MikeWhalen
10-03-2014, 01:55 PM
the most recent data on death rate for this version of Ebola is 71%...earlier it had been reported that it was around 50% but it was suspected that was low due to the poor info gathering in certain regions in the target countries in Africa

M

Cinnamon orange
10-03-2014, 02:23 PM
Believe me George, I agree better to be hand washing, and bleaching door knobs! I work in healthcare, and I am a germaphobe. My brother and others like to pick on me for this. When you work around some of the things right in your face like I do, you have to be. I agree the rubbing the eyes, and nose is one of the worst things that people can to to introduce nasty bugs in. Most people do these things without even thinking about it.


Yes I saw that. Heartbreaking.

I often go to people homes for work and the first thing I do is wash my hands. I was not so conscientious when I was younger but now dislike it if people come to my place and do not do the same. I occasionally wipe down doorknobs etc as well. Love it when it is cold enough to wear gloves because I hate holding onto poles etc on the subway:/

George Chandler
10-03-2014, 02:53 PM
I was watching one of the "experts" interviewed on CNN last night and he said (to paraphrase) that stopping travel from infected African countries was essentially racist and similar to the slave trade! What rock did that guy crawl out from? I could care less what country it was coming from I would say the same for any! That's absolutely insane unless of course he's interested in seeing it spread. Waiting too long is like closing the barn door after the horse has already left.

When they interviewed his mother (correct me if I misheard) she said he arrived and on the Sat/Sun he started not feeling well so by the following Thurs/Fri because of diarrhea they took him to the hospital the first time where they gave him antibiotics that didn't work and then his brother called the CDC where he was then admitted to the hospital a second time that weekend. I was in a rush and only half hearing as something else was going on but it sounded different that what was originally reported of only having symptoms for a couple of days then going to the hospital.

I find it interesting how the reports are that this is moving very fast. I see it as moving very slow compared to other infections because if you think about it the first infected person showed up last Dec right? That's almost 10 months of people getting infected so in my opinion it's more like a slow moving monster which doesn't slow very easily.

I think Cinnamon orange and Taltos are right and the germaphobes will stand a better chance against this one.

George

Mehrdad
10-03-2014, 04:15 PM
I was watching one of the "experts" interviewed on CNN last night and he said (to paraphrase) that stopping travel from infected African countries was essentially racist and similar to the slave trade! What rock did that guy crawl out from? I could care less what country it was coming from I would say the same for any! That's absolutely insane unless of course he's interested in seeing it spread. Waiting too long is like closing the barn door after the horse has already left.

When they interviewed his mother (correct me if I misheard) she said he arrived and on the Sat/Sun he started not feeling well so by the following Thurs/Fri because of diarrhea they took him to the hospital the first time where they gave him antibiotics that didn't work and then his brother called the CDC where he was then admitted to the hospital a second time that weekend. I was in a rush and only half hearing as something else was going on but it sounded different that what was originally reported of only having symptoms for a couple of days then going to the hospital.

I find it interesting how the reports are that this is moving very fast. I see it as moving very slow compared to other infections because if you think about it the first infected person showed up last Dec right? That's almost 10 months of people getting infected so in my opinion it's more like a slow moving monster which doesn't slow very easily.

I think Cinnamon orange and Taltos are right and the germaphobes will stand a better chance against this one.

George

My office, cars, house (almost every room) and even my childrens backpacks all have hand sanitizers and I have at least another box stored away. I'm definitely one of those germaphobes, although not severe like some, but I always douse my hands after a handshake, a sneeze or even after cleaning (weird I know). This precautionary habit comes from a childhood plagued with constant illness and given in Fiji many people weren't versed with healthy sanitary habits/living.

warwick
10-03-2014, 04:56 PM
My office, cars, house (almost every room) and even my childrens backpacks all have hand sanitizers and I have at least another box stored away. I'm definitely one of those germaphobes, although not severe like some, but I always douse my hands after a handshake, a sneeze or even after cleaning (weird I know). This precautionary habit comes from a childhood plagued with constant illness and given in Fiji many people weren't versed with healthy sanitary habits/living.

One item that is needed is a rapid diagnostic test. That way we don't have people wandering around infected who we suppose have the flu or some other virus.

warwick
10-03-2014, 06:32 PM
Also, Ebola is sexually transmitted up to nine weeks after symptoms have disappeared.

Táltos
10-03-2014, 07:08 PM
Also, Ebola is sexually transmitted up to nine weeks after symptoms have disappeared.
Yep, sneaky virus. I put the link to the CDC in my last post with this information. That it has been found in semen for up to three months after recovery. This SOB wants to make sure that it can continue to infect new hosts.

Alanson
10-03-2014, 07:32 PM
Scary stuff add Ebola for STDS to.

warwick
10-04-2014, 05:42 AM
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/

Good site above.

FluTrackers - a 501(c)(3) International Charity investigating infectious diseases. If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

rms2
10-04-2014, 01:59 PM
I was watching one of the "experts" interviewed on CNN last night and he said (to paraphrase) that stopping travel from infected African countries was essentially racist and similar to the slave trade! What rock did that guy crawl out from? I could care less what country it was coming from I would say the same for any! That's absolutely insane unless of course he's interested in seeing it spread. Waiting too long is like closing the barn door after the horse has already left . . .


George

Apparently Ebola is a politically correct disease: it just won't do to even talk about trying to contain it by preventing the average person from traveling to or from West Africa. It's nuts. These wackos won't be happy until they've killed us all.

alan
10-04-2014, 02:06 PM
Tragic though it is its is, after everything that can be done has been done in the way of sending medicines and advising, it will then have to be a case of the modern equivalent of lock the door and paint a cross on the door until the plague passes.

alan
10-04-2014, 02:08 PM
Also, Ebola is sexually transmitted up to nine weeks after symptoms have disappeared.

Cant imagine really being a hit with the ladies or being in heat within weeks of having Ebola.

rms2
10-04-2014, 03:16 PM
Ebola Yes Bagpipes No (http://www.steynonline.com/6586/ebola-yes-bagpipes-no)

What a government we have. PC run amok.

George Chandler
10-04-2014, 05:15 PM
I thought they did an ok job yesterday with the press conference and they did say that it's highly infectious regarding something an Ebola patient has previously touched. They need to be telling people how long the virus can live on a surface outside a body when it's come in contact with an infected victims bodily fluids. They need to start telling people in the media that yes even though the person has overcome the disease it can still be transmissible through sexual contact weeks after not just in a little website link at the CDC.

You can start to see the logistical issues regarding who cleans up the waste, how it's cleaned up, where it's disposed of etc. What happens during an outbreak when labs get overwhelmed? What happens when law enforcement, emergency and healthcare people have to go into quarantine for 21 days and are out of action? Before hurricane Katrina hit all the reports were that everyone was prepared and people had no idea what was actually coming.

This is why (in my opinion) it has to be stopped now before it starts and the extreme precautions have to take place now. No one says that people entering from Africa can't enter but they should be in quarantine for 21 days..then it becomes where do you put them and how do you enforce it?

All I can say is God bless the clean freak germaphobes! Every couple who has found it difficult to be married to one will probably be pretty thankful with this stuff going on.

GailT
10-04-2014, 06:20 PM
Apparently Ebola is a politically correct disease: it just won't do to even talk about trying to contain it by preventing the average person from traveling to or from West Africa. It's nuts. These wackos won't be happy until they've killed us all.

The idea that you are going to wall off these three countries and let the disease burn itself out is inhumane and counter productive. We need to move supplies and health care across borders to control the epidemic. If we do nothing it will continue to spread. I agree they should have more stringent controls on travel from infected areas - they guy in Dallas lied about having contact with a sick person. But isolating these countries is not the solution.

George Chandler
10-04-2014, 06:30 PM
The idea that you are going to wall off these three countries and let the disease burn itself out is inhumane and counter productive. We need to move supplies and health care across borders to control the epidemic. If we do nothing it will continue to spread. I agree they should have more stringent controls on travel from infected areas - they guy in Dallas lied about having contact with a sick person. But isolating these countries is not the solution.

I think it's more inhumane to allow it to spread with no quarantine policy in place for those countries. The problem is that all of the experts have based their previous experience, death tolls and containment on isolated villages. They had the opportunity to stop it through quarantine when it first started showing up in populated centers. So if you had been there in one of those populated centers in Africa when this first started would you have rather imposed a quarantine on both the civic and national level for seven days with orders to anyone with flu like symptoms to contact authorities or to let everyone do as they please because of concerns of the inconvenience of a quarantine? I would have said glad to stay inside for 7 days at least that was a start. This should have been attacked long ago in terms of the medical response and aid..why didn't that happen? Because all the "experts" who don't want to cause panic keep advising not to raise alarm bells now look at it.

George

alan
10-04-2014, 06:38 PM
There is a middle ground. Try everything known to science to help including medics going into the zone from the west BUT on return they must stay in quarantine until tested before you can regain freedom of movement. I dont know how long that takes whether hours or days but it would be simply crazy for people coming out of the Ebola zone to return and immediately be allowed freedom of movement without testing. There is doing everything you can and there is pointlessly risking an epidemic to spread. The new ebola test is meant to be like a pregnancy test. If anyone is selfish enough not to take it they should be refused re-entry.

alan
10-04-2014, 06:48 PM
I think it's more inhumane to allow it to spread with no quarantine policy in place for those countries. The problem is that all of the experts have based their previous experience, death tolls and containment on isolated villages. They had the opportunity to stop it through quarantine when it first started showing up in populated centers. So if you had been there in one of those populated centers in Africa when this first started would you have rather imposed a quarantine on both the civic and national level for seven days with orders to anyone with flu like symptoms to contact authorities or to let everyone do as they please because of concerns of the inconvenience of a quarantine? I would have said glad to stay inside for 7 days at least that was a start. This should have been attacked long ago in terms of the medical response and aid..why didn't that happen? Because all the "experts" who don't want to cause panic keep advising not to raise alarm bells now look at it.

George

I thought the same with some of the very severe flu strain epidemics that occasionally happen. Of course treat the sick with all the greatest precautions - space suits if necc. However, after that any disease that is human to human only and doesnt have a long latent period can be stopped in its tracks by everyone other than essential services taking a few days at home under a curfew.

alan
10-04-2014, 06:54 PM
I would be amazed if there wasnt a curfew with soldiers all over the place enforcing it if it got into a major capital city like London or New York. Surely the numbers coming from the Ebola zone into the rest of the world cannot be very high. If I was coming back from that zone I would certainly agree to being quarantined before I was tested - I wouldnt want to be the person that caused an epidemic in a densely populated area.

BTW-what was that bagpipe ban? I never heard that.

Mehrdad
10-04-2014, 06:58 PM
Scary stuff add Ebola for STDS to.

Can't be having sex tourists going off to West African nations for a while now can we....:biggrin1:

Mehrdad
10-04-2014, 07:06 PM
Perhaps people should start at the source of these outbreaks which seems to be bush meat. I used to live in Vanuatu and the Solomon islands and in these places they love their Bush meat especially bats. I threw up each time I ate bat meat and other bush meat. Just away from everyone else, couldn't be rude ;)

Now bats are serious carriers of diseases (http://phys.org/news/2013-02-rodents-disease.html) that could potentially be harmful for us humans. If these nations can seriously outlaw the trade and killing of Bush Meat and enforce strict punishments for those who break the law, it will do us all a favor.

But again, how do you enforce these laws without proper education of the public?!

George Chandler
10-04-2014, 07:53 PM
I thought the same with some of the very severe flu strain epidemics that occasionally happen. Of course treat the sick with all the greatest precautions - space suits if necc. However, after that any disease that is human to human only and doesnt have a long latent period can be stopped in its tracks by everyone other than essential services taking a few days at home under a curfew.

Exactly. I definitely don't suggest stopping health care workers from going there or coming back (nor the media) but there should be a quarantine of those people on return. The CDC website says it take survive up to 2 days out of the body and longer is it's blood related and kept at room temperature. Ok so it can't be transmitted to another through coughing like a cold but it "can" if saliva enters another person's eyes. Have you ever seen that Mythbusters where they wanted to see how far a sneeze would travel so they colored their snot and did the high speed camera. It's actually amazing the spray pattern and distance. I wouldn't want to be standing in front of someone who had it. Another "expert" gets on CNN and was asked about it surviving in a pool..I agree it obviously won't if the chlorine concentration is high enough, but then goes on to say that it doesn't easily infect when outside the body. Really? I see another prospective volunteer for a round of Ebola testing.

Now what about infected animals transmitting? It can happen..family pet gets it and doesn't show symptoms like many animals compared to humans. You don't think about getting Ebola from the neighbourhood dog or cat. Is that unlikely..yes but you have to start thinking about all the possibilities. How much bleach, latex gloves etc are stock piled? If it gets bad are you going to have trouble getting bleach at the corner store?

I agree with you Mehrdad that education is important and what's interesting is that the African countries have been educating for years about Ebola. There are signs and billboards all over the place yet here people keeping thinking this is an African problem. I wish we could rewind all the interviews of the people in the early stages of the outbreak in Africa who said it would be under control soon and not to panic as they had it under control...oh ya and that it wouldn't arrive here in North America that one was the best!!

George

George Chandler
10-04-2014, 08:27 PM
Another link.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/03/health-ebola-screening-idUSL2N0RX33620141003

rms2
10-04-2014, 11:23 PM
The idea that you are going to wall off these three countries and let the disease burn itself out is inhumane and counter productive. We need to move supplies and health care across borders to control the epidemic. If we do nothing it will continue to spread. I agree they should have more stringent controls on travel from infected areas - they guy in Dallas lied about having contact with a sick person. But isolating these countries is not the solution.

Who said anything about preventing the movement of healthcare supplies and personnel to West Africa and doing nothing about Ebola? I was talking about the movement of average people, not professionals, supplies, and equipment needed to fight the disease. Lefties always assume they are the only ones who care about others and the rest of the world is just teeming with awful racists who want nothing more than to see lots of black people die.

Travel to and from those countries by average people (not healthcare professionals, supplies, and equipment) should absolutely be stopped.

If the "hot zones" of infection were outside the Third World, especially Africa, we would hear less about how heartless we are to try to stop infected people from spreading the disease throughout the world.

Táltos
10-05-2014, 02:47 AM
Can't be having sex tourists going off to West African nations for a while now can we....:biggrin1:
Well thank you so much Mehrdad. You have made me realize that the true purpose of that other thread was to tie it in with this thread. For the greater good! :biggrin1:

*disclaimer-dark sense of humor was a job prerequisite

warwick
10-05-2014, 06:11 AM
It is puzzling that travel (excluding healthcare workers) out of the affected West African countries is still permitted.
Source: Vincent Racaniello Ph.D., Professor of Microbiology & Immunology in the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Columbia University.

http://www.virology.ws/2014/10/02/ebola-virus-enters-the-united-states/

GailT
10-05-2014, 03:46 PM
I think it's more inhumane to allow it to spread with no quarantine policy in place for those countries.

A quarantine of three entire countries will not work. If the worlds allows ebola to continue to spread in these countries, civil order will colapse and it will spread into surrounding countries. A pan-African epidemics will spread beyong Africa. By far the greatest risk to the US is uncontrolled expansion of the disease in Africa.



The problem is that all of the experts have based their previous experience, death tolls and containment on isolated villages. They had the opportunity to stop it through quarantine when it first started showing up in populated centers. So if you had been there in one of those populated centers in Africa when this first started would you have rather imposed a quarantine on both the civic and national level for seven days with orders to anyone with flu like symptoms to contact authorities or to let everyone do as they please because of concerns of the inconvenience of a quarantine?


The problem is that there was no large scale international response when it first began to spread. Nigeria is a good example of how ebola can be controlled in an urban setting. There had 1000 people working to track 19,000 contact who were exposed. If Nigeria can control a mini-outbreak, we can certainly control it in the US or Europe. But we will not be able to control an outbreak caused by thousands of panicked, infected people fleeing their home countries.

The scale of the problem was obvious in June, when MSF and missionaries were the only ones responding. I think the lesson going forward is the developed countries need to be more responsive to future epidemics.

GailT
10-05-2014, 03:50 PM
Lefties always assume they are the only ones who care about others and the rest of the world is just teeming with awful racists who want nothing more than to see lots of black people die.

This is both untrue and inflamatory. It is not helpful to politicize this discussion. You have already made other discussion forums inaccessible here because you say you don't like to engage in political debate. So why start another political debate now?

GailT
10-05-2014, 04:10 PM
Perhaps people should start at the source of these outbreaks which seems to be bush meat. ... If these nations can seriously outlaw the trade and killing of Bush Meat and enforce strict punishments for those who break the law, it will do us all a favor. But again, how do you enforce these laws without proper education of the public?!

In addition to spreading disease, the bush meat trade is driving rare species to extinction. I lived in the Congo for several years, and bush meat was a significant source of protein in areas where Kwashiorkor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwashiorkor) (protein deficiency) was a much greater threat than ebola. I think the only soultion to all of these problems is political reform and economic development aid. No education campaign will be effective in reducing bush meat consumption until people have alternate sources of protein.

George Chandler
10-05-2014, 04:14 PM
They were making good progress by doing the 7 day Quarantine there and keeping everyone inside for 7 days. Then going door to door and identifying infected people, trying to get them to a clinic if possible, removing bodies etc. They already imposed border restrictions there themselves and in neighbouring countries. Uncontrolled expansion is the greatest risk yes but it still doesn't mean the government should not take precautions regarding quarantine procedures from those countries.

I absolutely 100% agree with you Gail that the initial response was abysmal...which is why the response here in North America has to become serious and excessive very fast. At the time when this was first showing up in populated centers people were more worried about creating panic than actually trying to quarantine and stop it in the beginning. When are a person is bleeding to death and paramedics arrive on the scene for any situation if the area isn't safe they don't go in and the victim (from any incident) will sit there and possibly bleed to death. Some will say that's inhumane to allow the person to die but if it isn't safe it isn't safe. The ocean is the greatest natural barrier we have so all we have to do is focus on air and sea travelers and yes it could come in from any country but at least they are doing something. Look at what happened with this latest flight..now we don't know the circumstances totally yet but a guy from Liberia gets on a flight and starts getting sick. Could it be air sickness? Sure. So the response was to allow the first how many rows to leave the plane and go on their way. The medical personnel then come and take him off the plane with his daughter. The remaining passengers are allowed to leave then are told while half are already picking up their baggage that they need to stay and provide contact information. The have no idea if anyone came in contact with bodily fluids that were in the washroom? The response is troubling for sure.

Remember Japan (I don't think anyone can argue) is the most prepared and organized countries regarding earthquake and tsunami drills, manpower and technology yet the last major earthquake tsunami showed them how unprepared they really were. The reality is that North America "is not" prepared for an Ebola outbreak here.
Do people have enough extra food and supplies to be quarantined for 21 days or more? Not likely.

George

warwick
10-06-2014, 12:28 AM
They were making good progress by doing the 7 day Quarantine there and keeping everyone inside for 7 days. Then going door to door and identifying infected people, trying to get them to a clinic if possible, removing bodies etc. They already imposed border restrictions there themselves and in neighbouring countries. Uncontrolled expansion is the greatest risk yes but it still doesn't mean the government should not take precautions regarding quarantine procedures from those countries.

I absolutely 100% agree with you Gail that the initial response was abysmal...which is why the response here in North America has to become serious and excessive very fast. At the time when this was first showing up in populated centers people were more worried about creating panic than actually trying to quarantine and stop it in the beginning. When are a person is bleeding to death and paramedics arrive on the scene for any situation if the area isn't safe they don't go in and the victim (from any incident) will sit there and possibly bleed to death. Some will say that's inhumane to allow the person to die but if it isn't safe it isn't safe. The ocean is the greatest natural barrier we have so all we have to do is focus on air and sea travelers and yes it could come in from any country but at least they are doing something. Look at what happened with this latest flight..now we don't know the circumstances totally yet but a guy from Liberia gets on a flight and starts getting sick. Could it be air sickness? Sure. So the response was to allow the first how many rows to leave the plane and go on their way. The medical personnel then come and take him off the plane with his daughter. The remaining passengers are allowed to leave then are told while half are already picking up their baggage that they need to stay and provide contact information. The have no idea if anyone came in contact with bodily fluids that were in the washroom? The response is troubling for sure.

Remember Japan (I don't think anyone can argue) is the most prepared and organized countries regarding earthquake and tsunami drills, manpower and technology yet the last major earthquake tsunami showed them how unprepared they really were. The reality is that North America "is not" prepared for an Ebola outbreak here.
Do people have enough extra food and supplies to be quarantined for 21 days or more? Not likely.

George

Unfortunately, I believe the epidemic is already too large in these countries for that quarantine to have made much of a difference. Since the incubation period is up to 21 days, I don't see that a 7 day quarantine will be sufficient. They are also going to run short on health care personnel as they only had about 50 doctors in Liberia before this happened, and very few are willing to volunteer to go there.

George Chandler
10-06-2014, 01:42 AM
I "believe" that most case will show up within 7 to 10 days even though you're right about the 21 day incubation. It's a logistics nightmare for sure but at least they can identify the hidden people who are infected. This is why I think quarantines are so important now in North America for people arriving who have been in those areas. Where this will get away on us is if people come to a hospital with symptoms who are US citizens and have never been to one of the countries or have had contact with someone from those countries. Then the virus won't be tested for until you start see obvious signs of hemorrhagic fever. I agree about the medical personnel..pretty brave for those who do.

George

warwick
10-06-2014, 03:02 AM
I "believe" that most case will show up within 7 to 10 days even though you're right about the 21 day incubation. It's a logistics nightmare for sure but at least they can identify the hidden people who are infected. This is why I think quarantines are so important now in North America for people arriving who have been in those areas. Where this will get away on us is if people come to a hospital with symptoms who are US citizens and have never been to one of the countries or have had contact with someone from those countries. Then the virus won't be tested for until you start see obvious signs of hemorrhagic fever. I agree about the medical personnel..pretty brave for those who do.

George

One thing we really need is an extremely rapid blood test (i.e. within 2-3 hours) to determine if someone carries the virus. That way, we could quarantine infected people before they exhibit symptoms. Current technology makes that test possible, but it hasn't yet been implemented.

Táltos
10-06-2014, 03:29 AM
One thing we really need is an extremely rapid blood test (i.e. within 2-3 hours) to determine if someone carries the virus. That way, we could quarantine infected people before they exhibit symptoms. Current technology makes that test possible, but it hasn't yet been implemented.
Better yet one that can detect it in 15 minutes at least. There are rapid pregnancy, strep, mono, H. Pylori and flu tests that can detect for any of these conditions in 3-15 minutes depending on the test.

George Chandler
10-06-2014, 03:52 PM
It would definitely help to limit the spread with faster detection. It would be great if you were able to detect it before the actual symptoms start too.

George Chandler
10-06-2014, 06:39 PM
Another one. This time it's a nurse who treated the infected patient brought back with Ebola.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/10/06/spanish-nurse-becomes-first-person-in-europe-to-test-positive-for-ebola_n_5940772.html?utm_hp_ref=uk

George Chandler
10-07-2014, 03:18 PM
Here is another article stating that some researchers think ebola is transmissible through coughing and sneezing in aerosol form.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-ebola-questions-20141007-story.html#page=1

Enough with the news reports where it doesn't live long on a surface outside the body..if that was the case why take everything out of Duncans house to be burned and spray the inside with disinfectant? It's because it's highly infectious and lives longer than we would like to admit.

warwick
10-07-2014, 04:30 PM
Here is another article stating that some researchers think ebola is transmissible through coughing and sneezing in aerosol form.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-ebola-questions-20141007-story.html#page=1

Enough with the news reports where it doesn't live long on a surface outside the body..if that was the case why take everything out of Duncans house to be burned and spray the inside with disinfectant? It's because it's highly infectious and lives longer than we would like to admit.

A number of scientists keep emphasizing that Ebola is not transmissible via sneezing or coughing, but we don't know this for certain. The virus has infected many medical workers who have taken severe precautions.

I understand that the CDC doesn't want to raise the alarm without evidence. The problem is that it is quite possible that it can be transmitted via aerosol (even if it is very unlikely, i.e. 1-2%).

George Chandler
10-07-2014, 04:43 PM
I think people providing information that is either inaccurate or misleading won't help and it only increases the chances of people being unprepared and not taking it as seriously as they should. You're right (I do believe the risk is much lower) but it should recognized as a risk and stated as such in the media. I'm not saying that everyone should panic but people need to know the enemy if you're going to fight it.

I personally don't think the casualty rate will be as high as some are expecting. I wouldn't be surprised to see 20 to 50 thousand people infected world wide by Christmas (or close to). The problem with this one is it wears down people, resources, services slowly.

warwick
10-07-2014, 04:51 PM
I think people providing information that is either inaccurate or misleading won't help and it only increases the chances of people being unprepared and not taking it as seriously as they should. You're right (I do believe the risk is much lower) but it should recognized as a risk and stated as such in the media. I'm not saying that everyone should panic but people need to know the enemy if you're going to fight it.

I personally don't think the casualty rate will be as high as some are expecting. I wouldn't be surprised to see 20 to 50 thousand people infected world wide by Christmas (or close to). The problem with this one is it wears down people, resources, services slowly.

I think that if asymptomatic people are infectious (which is possible) it will be very difficult to quarantine the virus.

We need a vaccine to stop this and I'm certain people are working long days on that right now.

George Chandler
10-07-2014, 06:34 PM
I agree this is a nightmare virus to quarantine which is why quarantine procedures have to be in place when it first shows up not when it's a full blown epidemic.

It doesn't sound promising in terms if a vaccine being replicated in large quantities quickly.

I was never one of the people wearing masks during SARS or MERS. I don't get my yearly flu shot and I'm not a germaphobe what so ever but ebola is something that is a whole other thing. If this isn't the boney hand of death coming through the doorway I don't know what is.

George

warwick
10-07-2014, 10:12 PM
An international research team has analyzed about a hundred Ebola virus genomes from 78 patients in Sierra Leone. The patients were diagnosed with Ebola in late May to mid June.

The researchers found more than 300 genetic changes that make the 214 Ebola virus genomes distinct from the viral genomes tied to previous Ebola outbreaks.

Moreover, over 50 changes had occurred since the start of the 2014 outbreak, suggesting the virus is in fact mutating.

http://www.dw.de/unstoppable-is-ebola-mutating-with-unknown-consequences-before-our-eyes/a-17912329

George Chandler
10-08-2014, 03:50 PM
The CDC has posted a Level 3 travel warning for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. I'm surprised it wasn't done sooner but better late than ever.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/index.html

Humanist
10-08-2014, 05:01 PM
CNN is reporting the following:


Dallas Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan died this morning at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital, the hospital says.

Duncan arrived in the United States on September 20. He contracted Ebola in Liberia.

Táltos
10-08-2014, 06:25 PM
The CDC has posted a Level 3 travel warning for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. I'm surprised it wasn't done sooner but better late than ever.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/index.html
Too little, too late. Pandora's box has been opened.

alan
10-08-2014, 07:22 PM
If it came to it I have no doubt there would be a curfew with the military enforcing it if Ebola broke out in a large western city. I would rather the country stood still for a week than have a repeat of the Black Death.

Mehrdad
10-08-2014, 07:26 PM
If it came to it I have no doubt there would be a curfew with the military enforcing it if Ebola broke out in a large western city. I would rather the country stood still for a week than have a repeat of the Black Death.

My only prayer is that it doesn't become airborne. The effects would be more disastrous than any disease in Human history.

George Chandler
10-08-2014, 08:23 PM
I think what should be happening is that the government (at all levels and in all country's) should be reminding people that it's a good idea to have enough extra food and supplies in your home to last a month. Not everyone can afford to purchase a months worth of groceries all at once so to avoid and possible disruptions they should be slowly stocking up on extra food. What's the worst that can happen? You have some extra provisions to eat at a later date if they contain it. People do this all the time in earthquake zones and it should be a public service reminder in my opinion.

George Chandler
10-08-2014, 08:27 PM
Too little, too late. Pandora's box has been opened.

The box needs to stay on the other side of the pond and be closed.

George Chandler
10-08-2014, 08:32 PM
If it came to it I have no doubt there would be a curfew with the military enforcing it if Ebola broke out in a large western city. I would rather the country stood still for a week than have a repeat of the Black Death.

I would rather go through the frustration of quarantine procedures than seeing it get a foothold here. After reading the article about the jerk who clubbed the black bear cub and left it in central park I wish ebola was selective enough to get rid of the human garbage.

George Chandler
10-08-2014, 08:47 PM
Possibly #2 in Texas who is from the Sheriff's office.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/08/second-texas-ebola-frisco-patient_n_5954454.html

warwick
10-08-2014, 11:57 PM
The potential spread of Ebola into Central and Southern America is a real possibility, the commander of U.S. Southern Command told an audience at the National Defense University here yesterday.

“By the end of the year, there’s supposed to be 1.4 million people infected with Ebola and 62 percent of them dying, according to the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention],” Marine Corps Gen. John F. Kelly said. “That’s horrific. And there is no way we can keep Ebola [contained] in West Africa.”

If it comes to the Western Hemisphere, many countries have little ability to deal with an outbreak of the disease, the general said.

“So, much like West Africa, it will rage for a period of time,” Kelly said.

This is a particularly possible scenario if the disease gets to Haiti or Central America, he said. If the disease gets to countries like Guatemala, Honduras or El Salvador, it will cause a panic and people will flee the region, the general said.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2014/10/no-way-we-can-keep-ebola-contained-in-west-africa-us-general.html

General Kelly is preparing for the possibility of an outbreak in Central or South America.

George Chandler
10-09-2014, 03:34 AM
Personally I still think the number of verified Ebola cases world wide will be much less than is being projected. I could see that number of verified cases well into 2015 if nothing is done. My concern is the large population centers where everyone is crowded together such as some of the Asian or South East Asian cities, or cities like Cairo, Rio, Tokyo etc. I do agree that we will be fighting this for some time if there is no vaccine.

George Chandler
10-09-2014, 01:56 PM
More inaccurate reporting this morning saying that the deputy isn't at risk from being in the apartment because Ebola only lives on surfaces for a couple of hours [U]NOT TRUE

Ebola can live on surfaces for up to about 2 days and if it's blood in a room temp environment it's longer. If people starting thinking that there isn't a risk then it makes it more likely to spread to other people. Hopefully the deputy isn't infected but people need to stop reporting inaccurate information if they want to stop it.

kjjohnston
10-09-2014, 04:05 PM
I retired from a dermatology practice not too long ago so I have some experience with infectious diseases. There is always a danger of both over-reacting and under-reacting to something like Ebola. Right now, the best thing we can all do is try to become educated, but you can't entirely depend on what the experts say because often they don't know the probabilities. They might not have enough information or experience.

You don't want to panic, because the risk of catching it outside of Africa right now is slim, but I would suggest that everyone exert extreme caution when frequenting public bathrooms in places like airports and airplanes. I think airplane bathrooms should be scrubbed down frequently during flights just in case someone is sick. This is just common sense. However, people are not always vigilant until there is an epidemic of a serious disease. Of course the highest risk is between family members in regions where outbreaks are common. But if we are talking about spread of the disease, I would think that heavily frequented bathrooms would be the place where contact between travelers might pose the greatest risk of producing an epidemic. That is where you are most likely to inadvertently contact bodily fluids. I suspect that a hands to mouth route of contagion would be the most likely way to catch it from a stranger or from a toilet seat but only if the person is in a stage with a very high viral load.

People always seem to think they have food poisoning, but in many cases they don't realize they caught their gastrointestinal virus from touching bodily fluids in the bathroom.

I remember when it was stated in the press and even by physicians that "you can't catch a sexually transmitted disease from a toilet seat." Well you can! I used to repeatedly diagnose elderly patients in my practice with Herpes simplex in exactly the same place on their buttocks years ago during the time period when experts seemed to think the chance of contracting it through inanimate objects was rare. These are people who didn't know each other but I suspect they frequented the same bathrooms. Sometimes the doctors with the most experience (who see the most patients with a specific condition in a regional outbreak) are not the ones who are out there giving advice.

Kathy

warwick
10-09-2014, 04:39 PM
I think the primary danger is the spread of the disease in major Third World cities, such as Cairo, Lagos, and in areas of South America. For the time being the US is relatively safe, unless airborne transmission really is occurring and some doctors suggest low-level airborne transmission of Ebola is possible (and has occurred in the past).

Táltos
10-09-2014, 05:47 PM
Here is another reason for good hand washing. And like I was saying in an earlier post, about paying attention to rubbing your eyes, nose, and mouth. Something everyone does without even thinking about it.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29539444

A doctor in Madrid says the Spanish nurse infected with Ebola remembers touching her face with her gloves after treating a dying priest.

It is pretty clear to me that all nations will have cases of ebola within the next couple of months.

George Chandler
10-09-2014, 10:35 PM
Here is a link to an interesting comparison between Ebola and other diseases.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/health/how-ebola-spreads/

warwick
10-10-2014, 08:08 PM
You don't want to panic, because the risk of catching it outside of Africa right now is slim, but I would suggest that everyone exert extreme caution when frequenting public bathrooms in places like airports and airplanes. I think airplane bathrooms should be scrubbed down frequently during flights just in case someone is sick. This is just common sense.

I think completely avoiding public restrooms in airports or train stations is a good idea.

George Chandler
10-11-2014, 03:20 PM
Another frightening thought is being on a cruise ship with a person or people infected with Ebola.

kjjohnston
10-12-2014, 01:28 AM
Another frightening thought is being on a cruise ship with a person or people infected with Ebola.

Cruise ships are notorious for spread of infections. I had a cruise canceled due to an outbreak of Shigella on a ship. I think as I get older I tend to hang on to the railings more so I catch more viruses (mostly colds) from my hands when I am on vacation.

One challenge is going to be how are cleanup crews going to handle the contaminated waste if Ebola becomes more widespread? Will clinics and bathroom attendants be more careful when tossing out paper products that are contaminated with bodily fluids? I don't think protocols are very well defined. I have heard nursing staff argue over whether all paper that has touched fluids should go in the infectious waste disposal or just heavily soaked waste products. In the past a lot has been left up to the individual to decide. It is very expensive to throw out all waste in the toxic bins. Most public places don't have separate infectious waste containers.

Humanist
10-12-2014, 01:12 PM
Another case:


A health care worker at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital has tested positive for Ebola after a preliminary test, the hospital said in a statement. Confirmatory testing will be conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

The worker was involved in Thomas Eric Duncan's second visit to the hospital, when he was admitted for treatment, and was wearing protective gear.

George Chandler
10-12-2014, 04:53 PM
Just remember people..as the "experts" are telling us in the media this isn't easily transmissible. So another health care person de-gowns and washes and yet still get's it. Look at all of the deaths recorded for medical people who know the risks and are taking precautions.

Like I said before countries are not ready for this disease as much as they think they are. I keep hearing that screening at the airports is a waste of time from more experts in the media. Look at how many people need either observation or isolation because of a single infected person (more than 100?). If airport screening here removes or isolates even 80% or 8 out of 10 people of the possible infected people that's likely about 800 people that would not have to go into quarantine or be under observation. It's not going to stop it but these morons on TV who claim to be experts then say that temp screening isn't going to do anything and it's a waste of time get me really frustrated.

warwick
10-13-2014, 12:25 AM
I'm not sure what's going on, but BLS Level 4 procedures are well-known and should be observed:
http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2013/08/18/bls4-entryexit-procedures/

MikeWhalen
10-13-2014, 12:34 AM
but I think that is part of the problem
the BLS lv 4 procedures work very well, but they were designed for the most part, highly trained scientists working in small numbers in quiet super controlled labs

try to get the average person to do all 31 steps perfectly, all the time, every time in the hustle bustle of the field and that shit is hard to do
...imagine being half undressed in decom and being bone tired and your nose itches...how many just automatically go to scratch it, even though they have been warned a zillion times not to do it and swore that they would not make that mistake

this is a nasty disease that is alot easier to catch than HIV and what not

bite the bullet and ban all travel from those parts of Africa period...put them up in hotels or whatever the cost for the 21 days-dont let them step into other continents because the fucker will spread

my 2 cents

Mike

warwick
10-13-2014, 12:39 AM
but I think that is part of the problem
the BLS lv 4 procedures work very well, but they were designed for the most part, highly trained scientists working in small numbers in quiet super controlled labs

try to get the average person to do all 31 steps perfectly, all the time, every time in the hustle bustle of the field and that shit is hard to do
...imagine being half undressed in decom and being bone tired and your nose itches...how many just automatically go to scratch it, even though they have been warned a zillion times not to do it and swore that they would not make that mistake

this is a nasty disease that is alot easier to catch than HIV and what not

bite the bullet and ban all travel from those parts of Africa period...put them up in hotels or whatever the cost for the 21 days-dont let them step into other continents because the fucker will spread

my 2 cents

Mike

Right. The average nurse or doctor in the US is not used to observing these types of procedures.
Doctors Without Borders ( https://donate.doctorswithoutborders.org/truenorth/alt/landing_page_monthly.cfm?source=AZD140001D51&utm_source=google&utm_medium=ppc&gclid=CLSJhe6xqMECFY8F7AodoQ4AdQ ) has had a much lower fatality rate, but there's a difference: they are accustomed to working in very difficult conditions.

Táltos
10-13-2014, 03:40 AM
Right. The average nurse or doctor in the US is not used to observing these types of procedures.
Doctors Without Borders ( https://donate.doctorswithoutborders.org/truenorth/alt/landing_page_monthly.cfm?source=AZD140001D51&utm_source=google&utm_medium=ppc&gclid=CLSJhe6xqMECFY8F7AodoQ4AdQ ) has had a much lower fatality rate, but there's a difference: they are accustomed to working in very difficult conditions.
Yeah well I'm not knocking Doctors Without Borders, but don't think for one minute that working in a U.S. hospital is a cake job. Profits are put before patients all the time. Which means you have nursing staff who not only get to be your nurse (usually with an unsafe patient load, and only one other nurse on the floor), but they get to be secretary, and housekeeping. So just imagine all the crazy scenarios. There are too many, and I could take up a ridiculous amount of space writing about it. But I won't. Granted I am sure the special isolation unit this patient was in, the patient to nurse ratio was probably low. I would be interested to know just how many other patients the nurse who cared for the Ebola patient had to take care of as well.

Mike Whalen you are right. There is a big difference working in a highly controlled environment of a lab vs a busy hospital unit with call bells, phones ringing, IV pumps alarming, patients coding, etc. ...

George Chandler
10-13-2014, 05:17 PM
The thing is no one is saying stop health care workers from getting in and out (the argument I keep hearing). Use military transports to get them in and out as this should be treated like a military operation start to finish. Stop travel from these infected countries! The other argument is that well people are going to get in anyway and at least we can monitor them..seriously?! So we assist infected people entering using that as an excuse? Even if they do still try to sneak in they will show up at the hospital regardless so why offer a jump off point? People are going to try and leave as it gets worse like people jumping ship.

The problem isn't stopping travel the problem is all the "experts" previously stating that the Ebola situation in West Africa wasn't a problem and would likely be contained soon (months ago). The problem was the lack of response. There is no excuse for people being without beds for treatment over there and it's only going to get worse.

warwick
10-13-2014, 09:48 PM
Whatever is going on, these hospitals need to get serious about implementing secure protocols. If Spain's hospital and the one in Dallas both failed in this respect, that should be telling us that the virus is easier to get than we have thus far believed.

Note:
EBV can survive on surfaces for at least 6 days.

GailT
10-14-2014, 04:39 AM
The thing is no one is saying stop health care workers from getting in and out (the argument I keep hearing). Use military transports to get them in and out as this should be treated like a military operation start to finish. Stop travel from these infected countries! The other argument is that well people are going to get in anyway and at least we can monitor them..seriously?! So we assist infected people entering using that as an excuse? Even if they do still try to sneak in they will show up at the hospital regardless so why offer a jump off point? People are going to try and leave as it gets worse like people jumping ship.


There are several problems with stoping all travel and allowing only military transports. Comercial flights are an important source of supplies and aid workers. I doubt that our military transports can or will accomodate MSF. But I think the greater problem is that you create either the impression of a ghetto, or an actual ghetto. If people perceive that they have been ghettoized and abandoned, they are more likely to flee overland and spread it more widely in Africa, and then Europe. The only way to reduce risk outside of these 3 countries is to respond massively within these three countries, and we are not yet doing this.

George Chandler
10-14-2014, 02:57 PM
There are several problems with stoping all travel and allowing only military transports. Comercial flights are an important source of supplies and aid workers. I doubt that our military transports can or will accomodate MSF. But I think the greater problem is that you create either the impression of a ghetto, or an actual ghetto. If people perceive that they have been ghettoized and abandoned, they are more likely to flee overland and spread it more widely in Africa, and then Europe. The only way to reduce risk outside of these 3 countries is to respond massively within these three countries, and we are not yet doing this.

I totally disagree Gail (other than your last point). A co-ordinated UN effort to airlift supplies and aid workers has been done in the past for famine and I could be done here if there is a will to do it. The problem is that it's too little too late. I would make the same call if it was a western country, state, province or territory where this was happening and I lived there. You have to look at the greater good and that is to protect the people that you are able to protect while at the same time helping those in the hardest hit areas. Right now there isn't even enough beds for those infected to die in some sort of comfort. There will come a point where the disease is infecting and removing assistance either by overwhelming personnel, materials or deaths. It may seem like that now but remember the number of infected is about 7 to 21 days behind in numbers. There are only so many masks, gowns, goggles in stock which can be produced and I'm sure countries are also stock piling these for their own people. The point being is that although the world is sending equipment and personnel they have to consider their own national defence plans as well.

I'm afraid there will be some really difficult decisions to make for world leaders in the coming months.

Táltos
10-14-2014, 03:12 PM
There are several problems with stoping all travel and allowing only military transports. Comercial flights are an important source of supplies and aid workers. I doubt that our military transports can or will accomodate MSF. But I think the greater problem is that you create either the impression of a ghetto, or an actual ghetto. If people perceive that they have been ghettoized and abandoned, they are more likely to flee overland and spread it more widely in Africa, and then Europe. The only way to reduce risk outside of these 3 countries is to respond massively within these three countries, and we are not yet doing this.
Only the military can get the Ebola epidemic under control: MSF head http://www.bmj.com/content/349/bmj.g6151

Liu describes the current military efforts as the equivalent, in public health terms, of airstrikes without boots on the ground. Pledges of equipment and logistical support are helpful—“The military are the only body that can be deployed in the numbers needed now and that can organise things fast.” But there is still a massive shortage of qualified and trained medical staff on the ground.


In September, after the UN Security Council declared Ebola had become a global security threat, the United Nations created its first ever UN emergency health mission, the Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER).

I also read about a poll yesterday where 77% of the nurses in the U.S. do not feel that their hospital is prepared for Ebola. I can say I do not work in the hospital anymore, but the setting I work in is not prepared. We do not have the special suits, only a lousy paper gown, and no face shield. We have those N-95 masks, but they never properly fit my small face. And as far as isolating patients, everyone would be exposed right from the word go, as there are no separate entrances for patients. No phone outside to call into. I have heard at least one hospital in my area has this feature set up just for this situation.

Why am I concerned about this where I work you might wonder? Because no one, and I mean no one wants to go the the ER! Even when they are clearly having MI or CVA symptoms and need the ER. This thing can be confused for flu in the beginning, and we are just getting into the swing of flu season now.

Táltos
10-14-2014, 03:16 PM
I totally disagree Gail (other than your last point). A co-ordinated UN effort to airlift supplies and aid workers has been done in the past for famine and I could be done here if there is a will to do it. The problem is that it's too little too late. I would make the same call if it was a western country, state, province or territory where this was happening and I lived there. You have to look at the greater good and that is to protect the people that you are able to protect while at the same time helping those in the hardest hit areas. Right now there isn't even enough beds for those infected to die in some sort of comfort. There will come a point where the disease is infecting and removing assistance either by overwhelming personnel, materials or deaths. It may seem like that now but remember the number of infected is about 7 to 21 days behind in numbers. There are only so many masks, gowns, goggles in stock which can be produced and I'm sure countries are also stock piling these for their own people. The point being is that although the world is sending equipment and personnel they have to consider their own national defence plans as well.

I'm afraid there will be some really difficult decisions to make for world leaders in the coming months.
Good points about the gowns and masks George! That's probably why I'm not getting any of the good stuff where I work.

warwick
10-15-2014, 03:07 AM
He [Osterholm] warned the audience to expect the unexpected as the epidemic continues: "Do not expect that anything carved in stone today won't be blown up by some stick of dynamite."

He also urged them to get comfortable with uncertainty and be honest with the public about it. "We're making this up as we go. We have to be mindful that we're making it up," he said. "One of the worst enemies we can have today is dogma."


As an example of current dogma, he cited the view that Ebola virus cannot spread through the air. Many virologists, he said, are concerned about the possibility of airborne transmission, and certain Ebola species have been known to go airborne in primates.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/10/symposium-vaccine-seen-best-hope-arresting-ebola

warwick
10-15-2014, 03:23 AM
Follow-up:


The first critical mistake public-health officials often make amid such outbreaks is failing to consider another black-swan scenario. At the moment, they are focused only on meeting the vaccine need in the three affected countries. If this virus makes it to the slums of other cities, the epidemic to date will just be an opening chapter. Africa contains more than a billion people, and is growing faster than anywhere else in the world. If world leaders don’t make it a priority now to secure up to 500 million doses of an effective Ebola virus vaccine, we may live to regret our inaction. It’s that serious.

Securing 500 million doses of an effective Ebola virus vaccine is going to require a partnership between government and vaccine manufacturers that puts it on the same footing as our response to an emerging global influenza pandemic. This will require mobilizing people and resources on a massive scale—it has to be the international community’s top priority.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/09/the-ebola-epidemic-is-about-to-get-worse-111493_Page3.html#ixzz3GBF1d0Kg


http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/09/the-ebola-epidemic-is-about-to-get-worse-111493_Page3.html#.VD3oPsmwQ08

warwick
10-15-2014, 03:58 AM
The UN says the ebola outbreak must be controlled within 60 days or else the world faces an "unprecedented" situation for which there is no plan.

The United Nations made the stark warning as it warned that the disease "is running faster than us and it is winning the race".

Nearly 9,000 cases of ebola have been reported so far in West Africa, including 4,447 deaths.

"The WHO advises within 60 days we must ensure 70% of infected people are in a care facility and 70% of burials are done without causing further infection," said Anthony Banbury, the UN's deputy ebola coordinator.

http://news.sky.com/story/1352857/sixty-days-to-beat-ebola-united-nations-warns

George Chandler
10-15-2014, 05:02 PM
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/10/symposium-vaccine-seen-best-hope-arresting-ebola

I'm personally not too worried about any sort of airborne mutation. I just think it's more infectious when in close contact with someone sneezing in terms of the actual fluids (I know that seems like semantics). It's already natures killing machine and IMHO it's just as dangerous as is without worrying about an airborne mutation. Difficult to improve on perfection in terms of what it does (I know that reads bad but that's what it is).

I was watching the list of mistakes coming from the nurses union regarding Duncan being in the waiting room with people while infected and returning the second time to the hospital instead of being isolated. The lab chain of custody in terms of the samples and possible contamination. That's what I mean about everyone not being prepared for something like this. The best advice I saw was from a person from Doctors without boarders who said that they had dipped their gloves in a bleach solution prior to de gowning which will probably help a lot.

If you consider that one in 20 infected (correct me if I'm wrong) were health care workers. No consider what it's going to take to fight this overseas as it's starts growing beyond treatment in more extreme ways. Something to consider is that there is already a healthcare worker shortage expected for the aging baby boomers. So what happens if you lose medical personnel in larger numbers now?

Táltos
10-16-2014, 01:45 AM
http://www.nationalnursesunited.org/blog/entry/statement-by-registered-nurses-at-texas-health-presbyterian-hospital-in-dal/

Statement by RN’s at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital as provided to National Nurses United
This is an inside story from some registered nurses at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas who have familiarity with what occurred at the hospital following the positive Ebola infection of first the late Thomas Eric Duncan and then a registered nurse who cared for him Nina Pham.

The RNs contacted National Nurses United out of frustration with a lack of training and preparation. They are choosing to remain anonymous out of fear of retaliation.

The RNs who have spoken to us from Texas Health Presbyterian are listening in on this call and this is their report based on their experiences and what other nurses are sharing with them. When we have finished with our statement, we will have time for several questions. The nurses will have the opportunity to respond to your questions via email that they will send to us, that we will read to you.

We are not identifying the nurses for their protection, but they work at Texas Health Presbyterian and have knowledge of what occurred at the hospital.

They feel a duty to speak out about the concerns that they say are shared by many in the hospital who are concerned about the protocols that were followed and what they view were confusion and frequently changing policies and protocols that are of concern to them, and to our organization as well.

When Thomas Eric Duncan first came into the hospital, he arrived with an elevated temperature, but was sent home.

On his return visit to the hospital, he was brought in by ambulance under the suspicion from him and family members that he may have Ebola.

Mr. Duncan was left for several hours, not in isolation, in an area where other patients were present.

No one knew what the protocols were or were able to verify what kind of personal protective equipment should be worn and there was no training.

Subsequently a nurse supervisor arrived and demanded that he be moved to an isolation unit– yet faced resistance from other hospital authorities.

Lab specimens from Mr. Duncan were sent through the hospital tube system without being specially sealed and hand delivered. The result is that the entire tube system by which all lab specimens are sent was potentially contaminated.

There was no advance preparedness on what to do with the patient, there was no protocol, there was no system. The nurses were asked to call the Infectious Disease Department. The Infectious Disease Department did not have clear policies to provide either.

Initial nurses who interacted with Mr. Duncan nurses wore a non-impermeable gown front and back, three pairs of gloves, with no taping around wrists, surgical masks, with the option of N-95s, and face shields. Some supervisors said that even the N-95 masks were not necessary.

The suits they were given still exposed their necks, the part closest to their face and mouth. They had suits with booties and hoods, three pairs of gloves, no tape.

For their necks, nurses had to use medical tape, that is not impermeable and has permeable seams, to wrap around their necks in order to protect themselves, and had to put on the tape and take it off on their own.

Nurses had to interact with Mr. Duncan with whatever protective equipment was available, at a time when he had copious amounts of diarrhea and vomiting which produces a lot of contagious fluids.

Hospital officials allowed nurses who had interacted with Mr. Duncan to then continue normal patient care duties, taking care of other patients, even though they had not had the proper personal protective equipment while caring for Mr. Duncan.

Patients who may have been exposed were one day kept in strict isolation units. On the next day were ordered to be transferred out of strict isolation into areas where there were other patients, even those with low-grade fevers who could potentially be contagious.

Were protocols breached? The nurses say there were no protocols.

Some hospital personnel were coming in and out of those isolation areas in the Emergency Department without having worn the proper protective equipment.

CDC officials who are in the hospital and Infectious Disease personnel have not kept hallways clean; they were going back and forth between the Isolation Pod and back into the hallways that were not properly cleaned, even after CDC, infectious control personnel, and doctors who exited into those hallways after being in the isolation pods.
Advance preparation

Advance preparation that had been done by the hospital primarily consisted of emailing us about one optional lecture/seminar on Ebola. There was no mandate for nurses to attend trainings, or what nurses had to do in the event of the arrival of a patient with Ebola-like symptoms.

This is a very large hospital. To be effective, any classes would have to offered repeatedly, covering all times when nurses work; instead this was treated like the hundreds of other seminars that are routinely offered to staff.

There was no advance hands-on training on the use of personal protective equipment for Ebola. No training on what symptoms to look for. No training on what questions to ask.

Even when some trainings did occur, after Mr. Duncan had tested positive for Ebola, they were limited, and they did not include having every nurse in the training practicing the proper way to don and doff, put on and take off, the appropriate personal protective equipment to assure that they would not be infected or spread an infection to anyone else.

Guidelines have now been changed, but it is not clear what version Nina Pham had available.

The hospital later said that their guidelines had changed and that the nurses needed to adhere to them. What has caused confusion is that the guidelines were constantly changing. It was later asked which guidelines should we follow? The message to the nurses was it’s up to you.

It is not up to the nurses to be setting the policy, nurses say, in the face of such a virulent disease. They needed to be trained optimally and correctly in how to deal with Ebola and the proper PPE doffing, as well as how to dispose of the waste.

In summary, the nurses state there have been no policies in cleaning or bleaching the premises without housekeeping services. There was no one to pick up hazardous waste as it piled to the ceiling. They did not have access to proper supplies and observed the Infectious Disease Department and CDC themselves violate basic principles of infection control, including cross contaminating between patients. In the end, the nurses strongly feel unsupported, unprepared, lied to, and deserted to handle the situation on their own.

We want our facility to be recognized as a leader in responding to this crisis. We also want to recognize the other nurses as heroes who put their lives on the line for their patients every day when they walk in the door.

Táltos
10-16-2014, 01:52 AM
http://www.nationalnursesunited.org/press/entry/nurses-call-on-obama-to-direct-hospitals-to-follow-highest-standards-for-be/

Nurses Call on Obama to Direct Hospitals to Follow Highest Standards for Beating Ebola
As News Breaks that Second Health Worker in Dallas Tests Positive for Ebola, 11,500 RNs Join National Conference Call for Nurses on Preparedness

With concern escalating across the U.S. about the threat of a wider Ebola outbreak, National Nurses United today called on President Barack Obama to “invoke his executive authority” to order all U.S. hospitals to meet the highest “uniform, national standards and protocols” in order to “safely protect patients, all healthcare workers and the public.”

The request, send in a letter to the President, came on a day in which NNU, the largest U.S. organization of nurses, hosted a national call-in conference in which 11,500 RNs from across the U.S. joined to discuss what steps should be taken to confront a virulent disease that the World Health Organization has termed the most significant health crisis in modern history.

On the call, RNs from California, the District of Columbia, Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Oregon, and Texas described widespread concerns in their hospitals about inadequate preparedness at a time at least two nurses have been tested positive for the Ebola virus in a hospital where one patient infected by the disease has died.

The call came just hours after NNU released a statement by RNs who work at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas voicing frustration and concern over what they viewed as a lack of preparation and training at their hospital, the first in the U.S. to see, first a patient with Ebola who subsequently died, and now an RN who has been infected with the virus.

In the statement, the Texas RNs described confusion in the hospital over policies in responding to patients with Ebola, inadequate advance training and availability of proper personal protective equipment, and changing guidelines. In the end, the nurses, said they felt “unsupported, unprepared and deserted to handle the situation on their own.”

“Sadly, the problems expressed by the heroic Texas Health Presbyterian RNs was predictable in our fragmented, uncoordinated private healthcare system, and it mirrors concerns we’ve heard from nurses across the U.S.,” said NNU Executive Director RoseAnn DeMoro.

It is the circumstances in Dallas, which have mirror the concerns nurses across the U.S. have been expressing, both on the call and via an online NNU survey filled out by more than 2,500 nurses that have prompted NNU to call on President Obama to mandate improved safety standards in U.S. health facilities.

“Not one more patient, nurse, or healthcare worker should be put at risk due to a lack of health care facility preparedness,” DeMoro said in the letter to President Obama. “The United States should be setting the example on how to contain and eradicate the Ebola virus.”

The letter also states:

“Every healthcare employer must be directed to follow the Precautionary Principle and institute the following:

- Optimal personal protective equipment for Ebola that meets the highest standards used by the University of Nebraska Medical Center
-Full-body hazmat suits that meet the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) F1670 standard for blood penetration, the ASTM F1671 standard for viral penetration, and that leave no skin exposed or unprotected and National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health-approved powered air purifying respirators with an assigned protection factor of at least 50 – or a higher standard as appropriate.
- There shall be at least two direct care registered nurses caring for each Ebola patient with additional RNs assigned as needed based on the direct care RN’s professional judgment with no additional patient care assignments.
-There will be continuous interactive training with the RNs who are exposed to patients. There will also be continuous updated training and education for all RNs that is responsive to the changing nature of disease. This would entail continuous interactive training and expertise from facilities where state of the art disease containment is occurring.
- If the Employer has a program with standards that exceed those used by the University of Nebraska Medical Center, the higher standard shall be used.

The Ebola pandemic and the exposure of health care workers to the virus represent a clear and present danger to public health.

We know that without these mandates to health care facilities we are putting registered nurses, physicians and other healthcare workers at extreme risk. They are our first line of defense. We would not send soldiers to the battlefield without armor and weapons.

In conclusion, not one more patient, nurse, or healthcare worker should be put at risk due to a lack of health care facility preparedness. The United States should be setting the example on how to contain and eradicate the Ebola virus.

Nothing short of your mandate that optimal standards apply is acceptable to the nurses of this nation,” the letter from DeMoro to the President concludes.

George Chandler
10-16-2014, 02:19 AM
Thanks for that Taltos. It was actually really good to see CNN tonight keeping people accountable for previous statements and playing back video of those previous statements. To me that isn't fear mongering as some say it's the facts. This isn't the subject to be sugar coating, providing misinformation or lying about. What makes people afraid is when people in authority are saying there is no reason to be alarmed and the evidence then starts saying something different. If right from the beginning they (meaning any country) that this is serious, it is infectious, there are going to be cases in North America, Europe etc and there are going to be hurdles in dealing with it there would be less fear right now than there is.

Now here is a fact which isn't fear mongering. In one week (Oct 8th to Oct 15th) the total number of known cases worldwide has increased by 964 people. That's pretty sobering given the issues we are having in North America with a couple of cases. You remember those movies where there are men on a ship or sub which is taking on water and they are given the disgusting choice of trying to save the men in the hold who are injured, or close the hatch and letting them drown in order to save the rest of the crew?

Táltos
10-16-2014, 02:52 AM
Thanks for that Taltos. It was actually really good to see CNN tonight keeping people accountable for previous statements and playing back video of those previous statements. To me that isn't fear mongering as some say it's the facts. This isn't the subject to be sugar coating, providing misinformation or lying about. What makes people afraid is when people in authority are saying there is no reason to be alarmed and the evidence then starts saying something different. If right from the beginning they (meaning any country) that this is serious, it is infectious, there are going to be cases in North America, Europe etc and there are going to be hurdles in dealing with it there would be less fear right now than there is.

Now here is a fact which isn't fear mongering. In one week (Oct 8th to Oct 15th) the total number of known cases worldwide has increased by 964 people. That's pretty sobering given the issues we are having in North America with a couple of cases. You remember those movies where there are men on a ship or sub which is taking on water and they are given the disgusting choice of trying to save the men in the hold who are injured, or close the hatch and letting them drown in order to save the rest of the crew?
Your welcome George. I agree that it was refreshing to see the media keeping people accountable tonight. I really hope that our government steps up to the plate on this already. What I do find sort of odd, and please everyone I'm not trying to cause a political uproar. This crisis has actually made our President cancel two trips in two days. I don't believe he has cancelled any trips, or fundraising during any crisis as of yet.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/16/us/obama-cancels-campaign-trip-to-meet-with-cabinet-on-ebola.html?_r=0

President Obama on Wednesday night canceled his planned travel on Thursday, for the second straight day, so he could stay at the White House to oversee the government’s response to the Ebola crisis, officials said.

Mr. Obama had been scheduled to travel to Rhode Island on Thursday for an economic-themed speech before continuing on to New York City to raise money for Democratic candidates in next month’s midterm elections.

Officials said the president would “follow up” Thursday on a meeting he held Wednesday with members of his cabinet who are responsible for confronting the spread of the virus in West Africa and its arrival in the United States.

The ramped-up response inside the White House came as a second nurse, Amber Joy Vinson, tested positive for Ebola in Dallas after helping treat a Liberian patient, raising new concerns about the protocols for containing the spread of the deadly virus and heightening fears among the public.


To drive home that point, Mr. Obama noted that he had had close contact with several of the nurses who treated Ebola patients at Emory University Hospital in Atlanta.

“I shook hands with, hugged and kissed, not the doctors, but a couple of the nurses at Emory,” Mr. Obama said in his brief remarks. “They followed the protocols, they knew what they were doing, and I felt perfectly safe doing so.”

Another creepy aspect of this did you hear the reverse 911 calls to people living within a 4 mile radius of the first infected nurse? I can't find a link for it now, but it sounded like something from a zombie apocalypse movie. (No disrespect intended.)

apophis99942
10-16-2014, 03:45 AM
One positive is that at least it isn't airborne..many people don't seem worried about it arriving in North America but with a possible 3 week incubation period for the host a lot can happen.

You're correct. It is not only not airborne, ebolaviruses can be destroyed with application of 140 degree Fahrenheit temperatures for a duration of one hour. One cleaning agent advised to use when cleaning surfaces exposed to ebolaviruses is bleach. Wiki is a wonderful thing.

GailT
10-16-2014, 04:35 AM
An aid worker was interviewed on CNN tonight and said that commercial flights to Africa were critically important for getting their supllies in and their volunteers in and out of west Africa. It seems very unlikely that military flights can fully replace commericial flights and doubtful that they can do a better job of screening. So I think more rigorous screening is probably the best option. If ebola spreads in TX we would not seal the borders and allow the disease to burn itself out. We should not do this in Africa, either, for humanitarian reasons, and because it would not be effective. If you end commerical flights people will travel overland. The only possible solution is massive intervention in Africa as quickly as possible to bring it under control there. If we fail to do this, it will continue to spread.

warwick
10-16-2014, 05:38 AM
We're only building 1,700 beds in West Africa and there are already a 1,000 people being infect a week. This is not adequate.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/another-100-u-s-troops-arrive-liberia-fight-ebola-n225581


The task of developing 17 100-bed treatment centers is expected to last well into November, according to the Pentagon.

George Chandler
10-16-2014, 02:08 PM
You're correct. It is not only not airborne, ebolaviruses can be destroyed with application of 140 degree Fahrenheit temperatures for a duration of one hour. One cleaning agent advised to use when cleaning surfaces exposed to ebolaviruses is bleach. Wiki is a wonderful thing.

I sort of cringed yesterday when I was watching the instruction being given on how to remove the protective gear and it showed them using a spray bottle with disinfectant (or what should be) and she sprayed the BBC reporters gloves with a few sprays. You know it probably works doing it that way but for me if I was in that suit I would rather come over take both gloved hands dip them in a bleach solution for a bit then start to remove them. I think from the point it would probably just make me feel better.

George Chandler
10-16-2014, 02:35 PM
An aid worker was interviewed on CNN tonight and said that commercial flights to Africa were critically important for getting their supllies in and their volunteers in and out of west Africa. It seems very unlikely that military flights can fully replace commericial flights and doubtful that they can do a better job of screening. So I think more rigorous screening is probably the best option. If ebola spreads in TX we would not seal the borders and allow the disease to burn itself out. We should not do this in Africa, either, for humanitarian reasons, and because it would not be effective. If you end commerical flights people will travel overland. The only possible solution is massive intervention in Africa as quickly as possible to bring it under control there. If we fail to do this, it will continue to spread.

I completely agree with you that it's critically important to get personnel and supplies to the infected areas and that volunteers should be getting all the proper help they need not tomorrow but yesterday (not to mention a medal). With a thousand people a week being infected this is no longer a volunteer mission and hasn't been for some time. This has to be a blue helmet UN mission and it has to be done quickly (might already be too late IMO). If the UN is too incapable of making a decision quickly then other countries have to step up. We have passed the point long ago where this can be handled by volunteer groups. You see the issues starting to crop up with a body being not picked up for 2 days which had been in the streets and the rioting that starts and that is only going to get worse. There isn't the personnel there to deal with rioting especially as the police and military forces in the infected countries begin to degrade. It's at 1,000 cases per week and growing so what happens when it's 3,000 cases and if rioting breaks out across these countries? So what do you do? You have to protect volunteer medial staff and you've already seen that personnel have been killed due to peoples fear.

Picture someone reporting a small spot fire in a dry area and the fire dept says ya will be there in a bit. All the firemen are standing around saying that the weather isn't that bad and it's in a remote location we can get there in a bit. So the fire begins to grow and by the time they get there they arrive carrying a single piss can which isn't enough. By this time the fire has spread to a couple of larger areas and when asked the firemen don't want to alarm the residents and say they have everything under control and a fire truck is on the way. By the time the fire truck has arrive with more people it's now jumping from house to house and tree top to tree top with the winds coming up the problem is "there is no water tanker coming in to drop from the air". The only other option is to build a fire guard at a greater distance and remove hopefully enough fuel so it does burn it self out then attack what you can with what you have.

This actually reminds me of the Titanic from start to finish. in the beginning you have the unsinkable ship that everyone is so confident and sure about. You have people making bad decisions which lead to the actual event. You have a crew telling everyone that it's fine there is nothing to worry about. When the crew realizes that their could be something to worry about they get the rich people put into life boats at half capacity so they can save their wealth while all the poor people in the lower sections are still being told that everything is ok. By the time everyone gets out of a system of self denial and BS it's too late to rescue any more people. The only difference here is that there is no ship on the horizon to save you other than hopefully a future vaccine.

warwick
10-16-2014, 04:29 PM
The only possible solution is massive intervention in Africa as quickly as possible to bring it under control there. If we fail to do this, it will continue to spread.

We're not doing it. We're building 1,700 beds, but the region is ordering 80,000 body bags. The world community still doesn't get it.

warwick
10-16-2014, 04:35 PM
One of the tenets for minimizing the risk of spreading Ebola Virus has been a 21-day quarantine period for individuals who might have been exposed to the virus. But a new study suggests that 21 days might not be enough to completely prevent spread of the virus. Experts say there could be up to a 12 percent chance that someone could be infected even after the 21-day quarantine.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141015112323.htm

warwick
10-16-2014, 05:07 PM
Liberia is also experiencing a shortage of other supplies needed to fight the virus, including protective suits, face masks, gloves and goggles.

Liberia said it needs 2.4 million boxes of gloves in the next six months, but it has only 18,000 boxes. Each box has 100 pairs.

It also needs about 1.2 million hooded overalls within the same time frame, but it has only 165,000.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/16/world/africa/ebola-liberia-overwhelmed/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

This is what I call failure to act to meet the need on the ground, as opposed to the PR claims by the UN et al of the first world response.

George Chandler
10-17-2014, 12:18 AM
I do understand the difficult decisions a President or world leader has to make but I believe no imposing a travel ban and quarantine is a mistake. When the experts were standing up all over the place saying that the Ebola situation in Africa wasn't a problem and it wouldn't spread (months ago) it influenced the decision making regarding the response when it could have been brought under control. Now similar mistakes are being made by these "experts" in terms of the quarantine. The statements of admission from the "experts" that they were wrong before resulting 1,000 people being infected a week are as empty as they will be when more people in North America become infected in the future.

The argument that it will be easier to track infected people IMO is wrong. People who hide their symptoms will hide them to try and receive better medical treatment regardless. People who come here infected and don't try to receive medical attention likely have a different agenda in mind. You will never stop everyone from sneaking in, but when you are talking about 100 people under quarantine for every infected or potentially infected person why make it easy?

Gary Corbett
10-17-2014, 12:18 PM
I haven't read every last post in this thread,so apologies if I repeat something already mentioned.
Was curious who Patient Zero was.
Thought to have been a 2 year old boy in Guinea that died late last year. No idea how he caught it.
His mother,sister,and granny all got it and died.
People coming to the grandma's funeral then spread it back to their villages.

George Chandler
10-17-2014, 01:23 PM
I haven't read every last post in this thread,so apologies if I repeat something already menrioned.
Was curious who Patient Zero was.
Thought to have been a 2 year old boy in Guinea that died late last year. No idea how he caught it.
His mother,sister,and granny all got it and died.
People coming to the grandma's funeral then spread it back to their villages.

I'm not 100% certain but that seems correct if I recall.

MikeWhalen
10-17-2014, 01:27 PM
Gary
I dont remember that conversation being brought up in this thread, and I had not read who patient zero was in all the stuff I've seen, so good input, thanks

Mike

George Chandler
10-17-2014, 01:38 PM
I find it interesting that the argument for not restricting travel is that a person could essentially dilute their travel through other countries or enter through a land border. Do people suddenly no longer need passports or did I miss something? It's really simple..a person who has a passport from an outbreak infected country isn't allowed in. If a person has a recent stamp in their passport from a outbreak country they aren't allowed in. If a person is from a non infected country and they have recently travelled to an outbreak country they are not allowed in. If a person is a citizen of the country be it the US, Canada, Mexico etc and returning from said outbreak country they go into mandatory quarantine for 21 days. I personally believe we have just missed the opportunity to contain this and lessen the chances of it getting a foot hold in North America. I also believe any future attempts to try this will fail as it will be too late.

So far we've heard apologies such as the following:

"We should have done something sooner in West Africa"
"We should have done a better job identifying patients"
"We should have done a better job equipping health care people"
"We should have sent a CDC team to the hospital sooner"
"We should have given better guidance"
"We should have trained people better"
"We should have monitored people better"
"We could have done a better job cleaning up waste from it"
"We could have done a better job advising regarding travel"
and on and on and on.

Some future apologies to be heard in the media:
"We should have implemented travel restrictions sooner"
"We should have got more people on the ground sooner in Africa" (again)

Gary Corbett
10-17-2014, 02:13 PM
We are about to have US soldiers on the ground there.
How much havoc will this wreak with our military WHEN an outbreak erupts?

Táltos
10-17-2014, 02:59 PM
If anyone is interested in listening to the conference call from Oct. 15th that included nurses from across the United States. And some from around the world expressing their concerns. The nurses do not lie.

http://www.webcaster4.com/Player/Index?webcastId=6167&uid=837984&g=a8be3866-5085-44f8-86d2-7e62a395db1c&sid

MikeWhalen
10-17-2014, 05:39 PM
I would trust what a nurse says a thousand times more than a Dr, and a Dr a thousand more times than a weaselly gov flunky

M

Gary Corbett
10-17-2014, 05:46 PM
The hospital admins should belly up to the bar and work side by side with the nurses.

George Chandler
10-17-2014, 08:34 PM
If anyone is interested in listening to the conference call from Oct. 15th that included nurses from across the United States. And some from around the world expressing their concerns. The nurses do not lie.

http://www.webcaster4.com/Player/Index?webcastId=6167&uid=837984&g=a8be3866-5085-44f8-86d2-7e62a395db1c&sid

That was really interesting and frustrating to listen to. When you hear about no goggles be available or the nurse from Florida saying that a fellow nurse was suspended for attempting to get help from the CDC (if I heard that right) is "disgusting". I was watching the nurse from Dallas named Brianna who was worried about her job and had her lawyer beside her due to the fact she may not have a legal defence for going to the media. It would be pretty bad if she was to get disciplined for that.

Interesting regarding the aerosol questions and how transmissible it is. They shouldn't have to be even questioning a proper response to their need it should be done..nice to see the NY hospital was listening.

11.5k on the conference call - no wonder it was a bit clunky. I thought our conference calls were off a bit sometimes! LOL

George Chandler
10-17-2014, 08:35 PM
I would trust what a nurse says a thousand times more than a Dr, and a Dr a thousand more times than a weaselly gov flunky

M

Don't hold back Mike tell us what you really think! LOL

George Chandler
10-17-2014, 08:39 PM
We are about to have US soldiers on the ground there.
How much havoc will this wreak with our military WHEN an outbreak erupts?

I think that's a good question and will depend on the amount of response in terms of medical and humanitarian aid. The WHEN is again dependant on the response in terms of other locations because the when there has already happened there (Africa) in terms of the definition of an outbreak.

George Chandler
10-17-2014, 08:55 PM
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/human-transmission.html

MikeWhalen
10-17-2014, 09:26 PM
no George, the mods and admins get cranky when I cuss
:)

but I really do have some up close and personal knowledge of the type of lies gov spokesweasel press flunkies spin for their masters, so the contempt is quite genuine

M

MikeWhalen
10-17-2014, 09:34 PM
HA!
-it would be amusing to hear the squeals of fear and terror coming from the admin/boss types if they had to deal with the front line consequences of their stupid, cowardly, greedy, corrupt, &^%$#$%%$ decisions

-almost as funny as hearing the list of reasons why they couldn't possibly abandon their critical post in the rear and join in the dangerous/difficult work of the front line
" I would, but HQ is having a conference call I must attend"
"I would, but I am activating my call sheet from my last networking meeting in Tahiti, to locate further resources, to triage the situation"
"I would, but my Mommy is calling me"
"I would, but my dog at my bio suit"

sorry, but its been a long and bitter week at work

M


The hospital admins should belly up to the bar and work side by side with the nurses.

George Chandler
10-17-2014, 09:38 PM
no George, the mods and admins get cranky when I cuss
:)

but I really do have some up close and personal knowledge of the type of lies gov spokesweasel press flunkies spin for their masters, so the contempt is quite genuine

M

Somebody needs his coffee today..get the man a cup of coffee quick! LOL

George Chandler
10-17-2014, 09:43 PM
Any job postings for the Tahiti gig? Work interchange perhaps? LOL

Táltos
10-18-2014, 02:26 PM
That was really interesting and frustrating to listen to. When you hear about no goggles be available or the nurse from Florida saying that a fellow nurse was suspended for attempting to get help from the CDC (if I heard that right) is "disgusting". I was watching the nurse from Dallas named Brianna who was worried about her job and had her lawyer beside her due to the fact she may not have a legal defence for going to the media. It would be pretty bad if she was to get disciplined for that.

Interesting regarding the aerosol questions and how transmissible it is. They shouldn't have to be even questioning a proper response to their need it should be done..nice to see the NY hospital was listening.

11.5k on the conference call - no wonder it was a bit clunky. I thought our conference calls were off a bit sometimes! LOL
Yes George it is downright disgusting. Hospitals are always trying to stifle their employees when there are problems. They make you feel like you don't live in the USA, and that there is no freedom of speech. You would be surprised at how often this happens with various issues.

No doubt that the 11.5k made it very clunky! Hopefully the politics start to change with this now that the nurses are rattling their cage. The nurses are a big voting bloc in this country, and for better or worse mobilized by the unions.

warwick
10-18-2014, 06:11 PM
One fact worth noting is that the genetic diversity in the human genome is so low that from an infectious disease perspective, human beings are relatively easy targets for viruses.

Given the rate of viral evolution and mutation rates, it is relatively inevitable that a pandemic virus will emerge, particularly given human population density.

This Ebola epidemic should be a wake-up call for spending more money on virus research than we currently spend on home entertainment and other items, etc.

George Chandler
10-18-2014, 07:12 PM
It's interesting to see the lack of donations compared to physical disaster events and that's part of the reason it's so deadly. It reminds me of watching a cat slowly stalk it's prey. It slowly creeps up and it until it pounces and by that time it's too late. In the beginning it was just another Ebola event which didn't capture too much attention. Then the disease expands to a more populated area but it's slow and people keep saying it won't spread and they would have it under control. When it stats jumping borders people start to say ok well maybe we should be more aggressive in containment and now we're at ~1,000 cases a week. The process of people saying oh this won't go anywhere in north America is the same attitude that was in East Africa..because we are prepared for this. One to two then two to three and once it goes on for a while people become complacent as it's another country's problem. On Canadian TV (CTV) there was a news story the other night now people are over reacting and that you can't catch it from someone on a bus or subway and that it can't survive on hard surfaces! They didn't say hard surfaces for over a week or give a time just that it can't survive on hard surfaces. Both statements were totally false and that the accusation is that US media is hyping it..when in fact they aren't hyping it enough. That's why you aren't getting the donations needed to stop the problems because people keep being told falsely there isn't a problem.

Recently was it Senegal who declared it was Ebola free after closing it's borders as they were able to deal with it. Have Ebola people been flooding over the borders secretly..no. Could they if they get totally out of control due to inaction?..yes but it hasn't happened yet.

In my opinion we're passing the point where stopping flights and imposing a quarantine. Once it gets it's foot in the door and it becomes US citizen infecting US citizen and you can't trace it's origin o than than through we're all in trouble. It would actually be easier to fight if it was airborne because maybe then people would take it seriously. Maybe we have to have the little ebola worm hold a black flag or something to get a proper response. That isn't to make light of the threats like ISIS but contrary to everyone else Ebola is one of the largest (if not the largest) threat we face right now.

kjjohnston
10-19-2014, 06:27 PM
President Obama states that Americans should't "give in to hysteria" but I think we do need to be cautious. That doesn't mean we have to take every nutcase who claims to have Ebola seriously. This may not become the raging pandemic that people fear right off the bat, but that doesn't mean it won't happen in the future. When Obama says "you cannot get it from just riding on a plane..", how does he know that? It is true, more people currently die of influenza and people are not hysterical about that. I think it is certainly possible to catch it from a bathroom on a plane or by passing food and drink to the person sitting next to you when you touch your hands to your face.

Even a disease with a low transmission rate can eat up our resources because it is so deadly. Hospital workers may find it preferable to change jobs rather than to take risks. It could become more cost effective to at least attempt to contain it at the border.

An epidemic of Ebola could paralyze hospital ERs, clinics and doctors' offices everywhere. Protocols are often impossible to follow; even if the CDC comes up with extra money and endless pages of protocols, that doesn't necessarily mean that the rules can practically be followed. Blaming the hospital workers for an impossible situation is counter-productive. Practicing the protocols will help, but will not necessarily contain the disease. Every hospital is going to document that the protocols are being followed. However, electronic medical records are not always there to document what is really going on, but rather to satisfy billing and to claim best practices. There are never enough hours in the day to actually perform the necessary tasks, but as long as you document that did, that is what counts.

I doubt that there will be enough health workers, beds, isolation rooms, throw-away haz mat suits and inspectors to go around if indeed the virus spreads around the world. Even when a patient is moved out of an isolation exam room, the room has to be thoroughly cleaned and it is often off-limits for a certain number of hours. Where do we find 100 extra isolation exam rooms that are ready for the next 100 patients? Where do you put all these people who are in the waiting rooms who could be the next victims?

How can we expect a receptionist's or phone interviewer's first interaction with the patient to give us the criteria to make the call to warrant isolation? If there is a breakout of any kind of GI flu, do we currently have bathroom attendants in every public restroom to assure a germ-free environment? No. Do we expect to do a better job of this in the future? One of the doctors who contracted the Ebola virus in Africa did not think it was because of any breach of protocol. To me that suggests that he may have caught it outside the borders of the treatment zone.

warwick
10-19-2014, 07:56 PM
The good news is that rapid ( four hours to a few minutes) Ebola detection tests are nearly ready, both in China and the US and will hopefully be expedited for fast production.

George Chandler
10-19-2014, 07:56 PM
There are certain things which people take over the top and always will..like not disposing of sanitized and incinerated remains or not flying a secured sample which may or may not be ebola infected.

So they suspect because they've been doing everything correct they have caught it outside the treatment area..yet outside the treatment area they haven't been coming into direct contact with bodily fluids. So either A) they doctors, nurses etc are lying and they did something wrong inside the treatment area or B the infection remains alive on surfaces longer than what the "experts" are saying, C) that it's way more infectious than the "experts" are suggesting and saying in the media or D) It's not airborne but pretty darn close. What else is there..am I missing something?

George Chandler
10-19-2014, 07:57 PM
That was supposed to be the letter A and not a little guy with sun glasses.

George Chandler
10-19-2014, 07:58 PM
Actually a B not a little guy with sunglasses..I'm having a sausage finger day with my keyboard.

Táltos
10-19-2014, 08:06 PM
Actually a B not a little guy with sunglasses..I'm having a sausage finger day with my keyboard.
You can Edit your sunglasses guy. :)

Táltos
10-19-2014, 08:07 PM
The good news is that rapid ( four hours to a few minutes) Ebola detection tests are nearly ready, both in China and the US and will hopefully be expedited for fast production.
Hallelujah!

George Chandler
10-19-2014, 09:54 PM
You can Edit your sunglasses guy. :)

Thanks I didn't know I could do that. I guess when you put that letter with that character beside it that makes a smiley guy?? It looked fine when I went to edit.

Erik
10-19-2014, 11:05 PM
To be honest I'm not really scared anymore. I think ISIS is a bigger threat than Ebola.

Táltos
10-19-2014, 11:13 PM
Thanks I didn't know I could do that. I guess when you put that letter with that character beside it that makes a smiley guy?? It looked fine when I went to edit.
B) I see what you mean now. :biggrin1:
Maybe instead of ) could have just used a . after A, B,C? Oh well it's okay, cool sunglasses smiley guy is kind of cute. :P

George Chandler
10-20-2014, 12:57 AM
There is an ebola stuffed fuzzy worm toy selling off the shelves now. Isn't life surreal!

George Chandler
10-20-2014, 01:00 AM
To be honest I'm not really scared anymore. I think ISIS is a bigger threat than Ebola.

I used to think that but not anymore..the only thing that would make them more dangerous is if they used it as a weapon. Personally I don't think they have to and nor does anyone else...and God willing they won't.

MikeWhalen
10-20-2014, 02:36 PM
slowly cracking some of the mysteries of Ebola and its ilk...evidently, its way older than first though....

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/20/ebola-is-50-times-older-than-mankind-and-that-could-be-the-key-to-stopping-it.html

"Ebola Is 50 Times Older Than Mankind. And That Could Be the Key to Stopping It.

By studying hair from a wallaby, scientists in Buffalo confirmed Ebola and other filoviruses are tens of millions of years old. How the finding may show us how to defend against them.
The tiger and the elephant and the polar bear may be stars at the Buffalo Zoo, but it was a humble wallaby that helped scientists prove Ebola is tens of millions of years old, not a mere 10 millennia, as was previously supposed.

Jurassic Ebola.

The determination was made in recent years by scientists at the University of Buffalo who tested wallaby hair from the zoo along with a brown bat snared on campus to confirm what they had identified in existing databases for the first time: The genetic material of various small animals contains “fossil” fragments of filoviruses, the family that includes Ebola and Marburg.

“Who knew that the bats in the attic as well as modern marsupials harbored fossil gene copies of the group of viruses that is most lethal to humans?” co-author Dr. Derek Taylor said when the paper was published in BMC Evolutionary Biology in 2010. “Our findings demonstrate that filoviruses are, at a minimum, between 10 million and 24 million years old, and probably much older.”

Unlike other viruses such as HIV, the filoviruses lack the capacity to create their own DNA and were therefore assumed to be incapable of inserting themselves into a host’s genetic makeup.

Taylor and his co-authors, Dr. Jeremy Bruenn and Dr. Robert Leach, came upon the fossils by chance during a more general database search.

By studying hair from a wallaby, scientists in Buffalo discovered Ebola and other filoviruses were tens of millions of years old. How the finding may show us how to defend against them.
“It was a fortuitous discovery,” Bruenn told The Daily Beast last week. “I was looking for all viral genomes, and that’s what I found.”

The mammal profiles in the genetic databases included the wallaby, and the scientists decided to verify their finding by looking directly at the animal’s DNA. They asked the director of the Buffalo Zoo for some wallaby hair.

“We didn’t want to hurt the wallaby,” Bruenn says. “They shed hair.”

The zoo is blessed with multiple wallabies and was happy to oblige. The scientists were able to extract sufficient DNA from the roots, and they did indeed find the virus fossils. They got the same result from the campus bat.


Among the other small mammals studied in the databases were two rodents, the house mouse and the Norway rat, that diverged evolutionarily some 12 million years ago. And yet they proved to have the same virus fossils in the exact same chromosome amid billions of possibilities.

The finding suggested that Ebola and its cousins predated the divergence, giving the filoviruses an absolute minimum age far older than the prior estimate, which had been made via mutation rates. The previous guess had been 10,000 years, around the time agriculture emerged. (The earliest fossils of anatomically modern humans are from about 200,000 years ago.)
“Instead of having evolved during the rise of agriculture, they more likely evolved during the rise of mammals,” Taylor said in 2010.


One remaining question was how those fossils got there when these particular viruses had been presumed to lack the capacity to insinuate themselves into an animal’s genetic makeup.

One possible answer was that the animal integrated fragments of the virus into its genes as a result of persistent infection.

This, in turn, raised the possibility that in the course of continued evolution, the mammals had incorporated the fossil as a genetic defense against the viruses—a kind of vaccine generated by natural selection.

And that could now help us in developing our own defenses against a virus for which there is presently no proven treatment.

The results also may accord insight into which animals might serve as hosts for Ebola, carrying the virus with no manifest ill effects.

“The reservoir for filovirus has remained a huge mystery,” Bruenn said in 2010. “We need to identify it because once a filovirus hits humans, it can be deadly.”

Bruenn’s words are now proving all too prescient.

But he and his colleagues are true scientists who prize knowing over being known, and they are not seeking public acclaim now that Ebola is in the headlines.

Bruenn suggested that he spoke to The Daily Beast only because he happened to pick up the phone. He is no lover of attention, and Taylor is said to be even less so, though one photo suggests he does like wallabies."

Mike

warwick
10-20-2014, 10:44 PM
My view is that this is still containable;but, if makes inroads in large African or South American cities it could be even more devastating.

For the moment, the focus needs to be a redoubling of efforts in Africa to contain the problem and monitor the virus.

Gary Corbett
10-24-2014, 07:11 PM
The two nurses are okay now,thank God.

GailT
10-25-2014, 05:18 AM
Reported in the nytimes:

Shortly before her death was announced, the World Health Organization warned that the 2-year-old girl had been bleeding from the nose when her grandmother picked her up in Guinea for a trip across hundreds of miles to Mali. That trip, health officials suggested in unusually blunt language, poses a significant risk for both nations, but especially Mali, which has now become the sixth West African nation to record a case of the disease. “W.H.O. is treating the situation in Mali as an emergency,” the agency said in a news release Friday afternoon. “The child’s symptomatic state during the bus journey is especially concerning, as it presented multiple opportunities for exposures — including high-risk exposures — involving many people.”Dozens of contacts are now being traced, but it is unlikely that everybody who encountered the child on public transportation will be identified. In addition, Mali, one of the poorest nations in one of the world’s most impoverished regions, is as ill-prepared to contain Ebola as its regional neighbors already battling the disease.


There is still enormous risk that Ebola might spread throughout Africa, and then to poor countries in Asia. This is the threat we should be worried about

Mike McG
10-25-2014, 06:24 PM
I have not read all replies on this thread so I apologize if this has already been covered.

From what I understand, individuals who survive and recover from this disease are immune to it for a period of time. Even the survivor's blood plasma apparently can help others to recover faster and with much lower rates of mortality. I would think this bodes very well for the possibility of vaccines to prevent this disease as opposed to diseases such as aids and malaria. There have been a number of announcements of vaccines close to being available as well as the production of drugs such as ZMAP that can cure it. http://www.xconomy.com/raleigh-durham/2014/09/30/zmapp-ebola-drug-production-set-for-texas-possibly-north-carolina/
It seems to me that blood plasma machines are needed ASAP in the affected areas of Africa along with training of survivors to assist those who are ill. Even regular blood donations from survivors would help in the meanwhile and perhaps this is taking place. I understand that the reason that Dr. Brantly could not donate plasma to Thomas Duncan was that his type A+ was incompatible with Duncan's type B+, but this is less likely to be a problem with a significant pool of survivors in a specific geographical area.

Although it is very unfortunate for any one that gets this disease in the near term, I am very optimistic it will not become a major epidemic unless government bureaucracy gets in the way. In some respects the best thing that could happen for those in the affected areas of Africa was that some cases occurred in Western countries.

Mike McG

warwick
10-31-2014, 05:07 AM
The other problem is that in general, infection with one of the Ebolaviruses does not confer protection against the others*. For example, animals that survive challenge with Ebola virus (Zaire) are not protected from infection with Sudan virus.

source:
http://www.virology.ws/2014/10/23/could-reston-virus-be-a-vaccine-for-ebola-virus/

warwick
10-31-2014, 09:52 PM
Spanish intelligence has intercepted messages passed between jihadists online discussing the weaponisation of the deadly Ebola virus for use against the West,

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/10/30/Ebola-Weaponisation-Spain-Blackmail-Prague

Stellaritic
11-03-2014, 07:15 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XyaygCy1wg

http://www.snpedia.com/index.php/NPC1

warwick
11-04-2014, 05:54 PM
A new study has revealed that "post-Ebola syndrome" may persist even after the virus is cured.

Margaret Nanyonga , a psycho-social support officer for WHO, said that they are seeing a lot of people with vision problems, where some complain of clouded vision, but for others the visual loss is progressive, ABC News reported.

Nanyonga, who has seen two people who are now blind, added that nearly 50 percent of Ebola survivors she has treated in Kenema, Sierra Leone's third-largest city, report declining health after fighting off the deadly virus, said.

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2014/11/ebola-survivors-may-face-devastating-long-term-after-effects.html

warwick
11-15-2014, 04:38 PM
" The virus isn't what ends up killing you. It's your own immune system.

"The normal job of the immune system is to eliminate infections," says virologist Christopher Basler, at the Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City. "But when it's activated at extreme levels or it's out of control, it becomes damaging to the host."

The most extreme immune attack is the "cytokine storm." Although many viruses, like bird flu and SARS, can trigger this shock and awe assault, Ebola is probably the best at it. And at the end of an Ebola infection, it's the cytokine storm that kills you, Basler says."

Source:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/08/26/342451672/how-ebola-kills-you-its-not-the-virus

warwick
11-15-2014, 04:40 PM
Double blockade of CD14 and complement C5 abolishes the cytokine storm

reference http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24790148

warwick
11-26-2014, 04:50 AM
Mali said on Monday that another person had tested positive for the Ebola virus, bringing the total number of cases in the West African nation to eight.

Mali is the sixth West African country to be hit by the worst outbreak on record of deadly haemorrhagic fever that has killed some 5,459 since the first case was recorded early this year in neighboring Guinea.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/24/us-health-ebola-mali-idUSKCN0J828420141124

George Chandler
12-14-2014, 07:54 PM
Another grim statistic. According to the WHO as of Dec 12th there have been 18188 cases and 6,583 deaths from Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone alone since this outbreak began.

George

jayphilip
04-13-2015, 07:56 AM
It could easily become an international occurrence if it's not included. Definitely terrifying man. I feel sorry for many people suffering from this deficiency and the deficiency of medical illness.

Mike McG
08-01-2015, 05:50 PM
I have not read all replies on this thread so I apologize if this has already been covered.

From what I understand, individuals who survive and recover from this disease are immune to it for a period of time. Even the survivor's blood plasma apparently can help others to recover faster and with much lower rates of mortality. I would think this bodes very well for the possibility of vaccines to prevent this disease as opposed to diseases such as aids and malaria. There have been a number of announcements of vaccines close to being available as well as the production of drugs such as ZMAP that can cure it. http://www.xconomy.com/raleigh-durham/2014/09/30/zmapp-ebola-drug-production-set-for-texas-possibly-north-carolina/
It seems to me that blood plasma machines are needed ASAP in the affected areas of Africa along with training of survivors to assist those who are ill. Even regular blood donations from survivors would help in the meanwhile and perhaps this is taking place. I understand that the reason that Dr. Brantly could not donate plasma to Thomas Duncan was that his type A+ was incompatible with Duncan's type B+, but this is less likely to be a problem with a significant pool of survivors in a specific geographical area.

Although it is very unfortunate for any one that gets this disease in the near term, I am very optimistic it will not become a major epidemic unless government bureaucracy gets in the way. In some respects the best thing that could happen for those in the affected areas of Africa was that some cases occurred in Western countries.

Mike McG

A potential vaccine http://news.yahoo.com/mercks-ebola-vaccine-proves-fully-effective-guinea-trial-121407661--finance.html