Michał
10-07-2014, 05:08 PM
The R1a FTDNA project has received the Big Y results for two early separated R1a lineages, including R1a-M459* (kit N86494) and R1a-M198* (kit 294660). I have extracted all reliable novel variants (private SNPs) under M459 and under M198, respectively, from the corresponding FTDNA reports. Also, Semargl has analysed all known SNPs for these two kits, so I could then use all this data to calculate some preliminary TMRCAs for R1-M173, M1a-M459, R1a-M198 and R1a-M417. For the levels downstream of M417, I haven't used the Big Y data for Z93 and Y2395/Z284, as such summarized reports are not ready yet.
2718
Here are some important comments to the above chart:
1) I have applied my previously estimated rate of 150 years per each Big Y tested SNP (see http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?828-STR-Wars-GDs-TMRCA-estimates-Variance-Mutation-Rates-amp-SNP-counting/page11 for justification). Additionally, since Iain McDonald from the R1b-U106 FTDNA project has recently announced that he adopted a new rate of 137.65 years/SNP (95% confidence interval 121.11-157.65 years/SNP) based on a combination of Big Y results and the literature, I have also provided the age estimates (in the parentheses) that were based on this modified mutation rate.
2) These are only some preliminary estimates, as I expect that once these new Big Y results are analysed at YFull, I will be able to refine my calculations. All this will likely result in adding some new SNPs (both private and non-private ones), so one may consider the current estimates as underestimates.
3) The number of private SNPs in kit 294660 (M198*) is lower than expected based on the results for M459* and for different subclades of M417. Importantly, this affected the age of all upstream clades, and we may suspect that some of the above TMRCAs are significantly underestimated. If disregarding that low number of private SNPs found in kit 294660, we would get some substantially older ages for R1a-M198 (10.2 (9.4)), for R1a-M459 (14.6 (13.4)), and for R1-M173 (27.2 (25.0)). Hopefully, all this will be further refined once we get some Big Y results for M420*.
4) The average number of the FGC-tested SNPs downstream of R1-M173 for different subclades of R1a-M645 is about 300, so all this confirms our previous estimates that Big Y covers about 60% of SNPs tested by FGC.
I would like to thank Lappa and Tenth for providing the summarized Big Y data for PF6155/M458 and CTS4385/L664, respectively, and Semargl for analysing the known SNPs from the upper levels.
2718
Here are some important comments to the above chart:
1) I have applied my previously estimated rate of 150 years per each Big Y tested SNP (see http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?828-STR-Wars-GDs-TMRCA-estimates-Variance-Mutation-Rates-amp-SNP-counting/page11 for justification). Additionally, since Iain McDonald from the R1b-U106 FTDNA project has recently announced that he adopted a new rate of 137.65 years/SNP (95% confidence interval 121.11-157.65 years/SNP) based on a combination of Big Y results and the literature, I have also provided the age estimates (in the parentheses) that were based on this modified mutation rate.
2) These are only some preliminary estimates, as I expect that once these new Big Y results are analysed at YFull, I will be able to refine my calculations. All this will likely result in adding some new SNPs (both private and non-private ones), so one may consider the current estimates as underestimates.
3) The number of private SNPs in kit 294660 (M198*) is lower than expected based on the results for M459* and for different subclades of M417. Importantly, this affected the age of all upstream clades, and we may suspect that some of the above TMRCAs are significantly underestimated. If disregarding that low number of private SNPs found in kit 294660, we would get some substantially older ages for R1a-M198 (10.2 (9.4)), for R1a-M459 (14.6 (13.4)), and for R1-M173 (27.2 (25.0)). Hopefully, all this will be further refined once we get some Big Y results for M420*.
4) The average number of the FGC-tested SNPs downstream of R1-M173 for different subclades of R1a-M645 is about 300, so all this confirms our previous estimates that Big Y covers about 60% of SNPs tested by FGC.
I would like to thank Lappa and Tenth for providing the summarized Big Y data for PF6155/M458 and CTS4385/L664, respectively, and Semargl for analysing the known SNPs from the upper levels.