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View Full Version : L23 >> DF13 Up The Danube River by SNPs and Origin Variance



MJost
12-29-2014, 05:06 PM
I have previously calculated both high L23's STR variance and counting SNPs backwards to L23 that shows that L23 arrived at the mouth of the Danube River on the western Black Sea, its most probable spawning point. Using the known land usage expansion rate of around 1 kilometer per year for farming expansion of Europe: A wave of advance... Ammerman & Cavalli-Sforza (1989), but could have very well been a oscillating manner as per Gould and Elderidge 1977, due to many external factors such a climate, resource degradation and including population growth or stagnation (bottle necks), I created a map where the Sons of L23 may have migrated up the Danube and I placed location pins where each block of SNPs could have started out with its sons. All of this is speculative but does show the that the time line between L23 and P312 that some can use for matching archeological dates to. U used 129 years per mutation at 1km/year average expansion.

We should be able to calculate each SNPs STR variance and, hopefully, confirm each SNPs general branching location that would match these pinned locations.

Using my estimated 129 years per mutation dating SNP blocks above DF13 at 3750 ybp (my suggested DF13 age) working backwards.

R1b1a2 - M269 - 7 < 903 yrs in block plus 6330 ybp = 7233 (5233bc)
R1b1a2a - L23 - 3 < 387 yrs in block plus 5943 ybp = 6330 (4330bc)
R1b1a2a1 - L51 - 4 < 516 yrs in block plus 5427 ybp = 5943 (3943bc)
R1b1a2a1a - L11 - 7 < 903 yrs in block plus 4524 ybp = 5427 (3427bc)
R1b1a2a1a2 - P312/U106 - 2 < 258 in block yrs plus 4266 ybp = 4524 (2524bc)
R1b1a2a1a2c - L21 - 4 < 516 in block yrs plus 3750 ybp = 4266 (2266bc)
DF13 - 3750 (1750bc)


https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9Y3jb2fORNbGZndU9TZjVocHM/view?usp=sharing

I can even speculate that the 4524 (2524bc) time location would have been a great jumping off point for U106 to go north into what is now eastern Europe.

MJost

MJost
12-29-2014, 07:01 PM
Starting at P312/U106 location in time, I have this link to show a 'Map of the diffusion of metallurgy' on Wiki.
Date 7 June 2008
Source File:Diffusion métallurgie.png: After M. Otte (2007) Vers la Préhistoire, de Boeck, Bruxelles
Author User:Hamelin de Guettelet

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/Metallurgical_diffusion.png

Note the locations of Gold, Copper and where Tin is located on this map. (Between the 1700-1750 KM markers on the previous posted L23 >> DF13 Danube River Map).

On the Metallurgical_diffusion chart, notice the tin ore (blue) location shown north and east of Komarno on the Danbue River map
Europe's earliest mining district appears to be located in Erzgebirge, on the border between Germany and Czech Republic.

It is possible that as early as 2500 BCE, Erzgebirge had begun exporting tin, using the well established Baltic amber trade route to supply Scandinavia as well as the Mediterranean with tin (Penhallurick 1986, pp. 75–77) at a close place where thelater derived sons of L11 block would be spawned around 2700bc to 2600 bc. note: P312/U106 were spawned, a few SNPs later, slightly farther up stream from here are 2500bc.

Hummm....Is the start of the Bronze age that was affecting the P312/U106 men expansion at a time of a start of a long term uptick in climate temperature, increasing 3.5 degree's for the next 1700 years in composing L21 and spawning massive number of DF13 subclades???

Greenland_Gisp2_TemperatureR-L11andSubclades
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9Y3jb2fORNUDdib0tnTU5uSms/view?usp=sharing


MJost

MJost
12-30-2014, 12:39 AM
Looking at the https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9Y3jb2fORNbGZndU9TZjVocHM/view?usp=sharing link, top left corner you find the DF13 timeline reference covering

As JimW posted, https://beta.groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/R1b-FGC5494/conversations/topics/381

"Remarkably, four of the FGC5494 members cluster within 30+/- miles of
one another in area just west of the Rhine in the Landkreis (districts)
near Bad Dürkheim. Bad Dürhkheim area was the cross-roads for trade
routes along the Rhine and to the Marne and Seine basins."

The DF13 spawning area is basically Regensburg north to the River Main,
west to the Rhine and south to the Rhine headwaters is basically Baden-
Wurttenberg area. The area that may have been the spawning ground for
DF13 and it many subclades. Some area of eastern Bayner could be
included.

For an over view of this area:
"Baden-Wurttemberg". Encyclopædia Britannica. Encyclopædia Britannica

Online.
Encyclopædia Britannica Inc., 2014. Web. 29 Dec. 2014
<http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/48480/Baden-Wurttemberg>.



Also this was prime land for the Romans to draw a line in the sand
between two major river points protecting their frontier claims from the
eastern barbarians. Map of the Upper German-Raetian Limes

GERMANY.Frontiers of the Roman Empire.pdf
http://whc.unesco.org/download.cfm?id_document=101573

And the Heuneburg which is a prehistoric hillfort by the upper Danube. It is located in Hundersingen near Herbertingen, between Ulm and Sigmaringen, Baden-Württemberg, Germany. It is considered one of the most important early Celtic centres in Central Europe.

This area is where L21, a very slow growing lineage was bottle necked, held up for over 500 years between 4250 and 3750 ybp before spawning DF13 with its massively generated sons and grandsons over three or more generations. What caused L21's stagnate growth for so many generations.

MJost

MJost
12-30-2014, 02:32 AM
>What caused L21's stagnate growth for so many generations?


P312 for a two SNP period of time, along with L21 and its five SNP period time frame was coming out of one of the coldest period since that 8.2 ky event. L21 appears to have held down the fort in the Bad Dürhkheim area containing cross-roads trade routes while the U152 and DF27 cousins explored out side their home area, which was some of the most important early Celtic centres in Central Europe.

In looking for reasons of low or no population growth of L21, this study reviewed the A.D. 1000–1400 tempature period down turn results which had even a lower NH than the period just prior to the P312 block which was similar in nature, starting at the 5000 ybp point.

Paraphased:
~The population growth rate reaches its lowest levels, primarily because of epidemics, wars, and famines. Every sudden temperature drop would induce a “demographic shock,” and the correlation coefficient between the NH (Normal High) temperature and the population growth rate is highly significant as agriculture is largely depended on climate. When agricultural technology and trade flows were at a low level, the population growth rate was also low, and the world population basically stagnated.~

'Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history'
Zhang, et al.
October 23, 2007
19214–19219, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0703073104

Was there other factors such as epidemics, wars, and famines that stagnated or reversed L21's population growth for that many centuries?

MJost

rms2
01-03-2015, 04:48 PM
I have previously calculated both high L23's STR variance and counting SNPs backwards to L23 that shows that L23 arrived at the mouth of the Danube River on the western Black Sea, its most probable spawning point. Using the known land usage expansion rate of around 1 kilometer per year for farming expansion of Europe: A wave of advance... Ammerman & Cavalli-Sforza (1989), but could have very well been a oscillating manner as per Gould and Elderidge 1977, due to many external factors such a climate, resource degradation and including population growth or stagnation (bottle necks), I created a map where the Sons of L23 may have migrated up the Danube and I placed location pins where each block of SNPs could have started out with its sons. All of this is speculative but does show the that the time line between L23 and P312 that some can use for matching archeological dates to. U used 129 years per mutation at 1km/year average expansion.

We should be able to calculate each SNPs STR variance and, hopefully, confirm each SNPs general branching location that would match these pinned locations.

Using my estimated 129 years per mutation dating SNP blocks above DF13 at 3750 ybp (my suggested DF13 age) working backwards.

R1b1a2 - M269 - 7 < 903 yrs in block plus 6330 ybp = 7233 (5233bc)
R1b1a2a - L23 - 3 < 387 yrs in block plus 5943 ybp = 6330 (4330bc)
R1b1a2a1 - L51 - 4 < 516 yrs in block plus 5427 ybp = 5943 (3943bc)
R1b1a2a1a - L11 - 7 < 903 yrs in block plus 4524 ybp = 5427 (3427bc)
R1b1a2a1a2 - P312/U106 - 2 < 258 in block yrs plus 4266 ybp = 4524 (2524bc)
R1b1a2a1a2c - L21 - 4 < 516 in block yrs plus 3750 ybp = 4266 (2266bc)
DF13 - 3750 (1750bc)


https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9Y3jb2fORNbGZndU9TZjVocHM/view?usp=sharing

I can even speculate that the 4524 (2524bc) time location would have been a great jumping off point for U106 to go north into what is now eastern Europe.

MJost

Is the land usage expansion rate for farming, which you have as 1 km per year, the same for both pastoralists and agriculturalists?

Couldn't the L23 expansion rate have been faster if its bearers were mobile pastoralists rather than relatively sedentary agriculturalists?

MJost
01-03-2015, 06:56 PM
Is the land usage expansion rate for farming, which you have as 1 km per year, the same for both pastoralists and agriculturalists?

Couldn't the L23 expansion rate have been faster if its bearers were mobile pastoralists rather than relatively sedentary agriculturalists?

I am sure the extensive grasslands favored animal grazing over crop growing (at least with the technologies available at that time), their subsistence depended more heavily on their animals than on plants. I would have to believe that these mobile pastoralists developed grazing techniques but stayed along the major rivers such as the Danube. Ongoing westward grazing expansion [and land conversion for farming] driven by human population growth threatened the early farming culture that didn’t change drastically for almost 3,700 years. The L11 block guys, sons of L23, based on the TMRCA, would have brought the horse and wagon into the Great Hungarian Plains around 3500 bc.

Here is an interesting paper on
https://www.academia.edu/9918313/Understanding_Ancient_Farming_Societies_Daub_Analy sis_in_Late_Neolithic_Hungary

It would seem that the 1 km per year, WAS the same for the L11 guys who were both pastoralists and agriculturalists, in the Great Hungarian Plains located within the Carpathian Basin for 1000 year period, utilizing most of the largest alluvial plains in Europe.

MJost

Chad Rohlfsen
01-06-2015, 01:08 AM
I'm not sure about the dates and locations. The Baden genome from 2800BCE doesn't show much or any ANE ancestry. If they were there around 3500BCE, then they would be related to CO1 and Oetzi, with the Balkan Chalcolithic expansion. I find it hard to combine R1b with groups that may lack ANE. There's no R1b in southern France at 3000BCE, and northern France at 2800BCE. If they were involved in the spread to Baden-Wurttemburg around 3500BCE, then they should be in France by those dates.

alan
01-06-2015, 03:32 AM
I have previously calculated both high L23's STR variance and counting SNPs backwards to L23 that shows that L23 arrived at the mouth of the Danube River on the western Black Sea, its most probable spawning point. Using the known land usage expansion rate of around 1 kilometer per year for farming expansion of Europe: A wave of advance... Ammerman & Cavalli-Sforza (1989), but could have very well been a oscillating manner as per Gould and Elderidge 1977, due to many external factors such a climate, resource degradation and including population growth or stagnation (bottle necks), I created a map where the Sons of L23 may have migrated up the Danube and I placed location pins where each block of SNPs could have started out with its sons. All of this is speculative but does show the that the time line between L23 and P312 that some can use for matching archeological dates to. U used 129 years per mutation at 1km/year average expansion.

We should be able to calculate each SNPs STR variance and, hopefully, confirm each SNPs general branching location that would match these pinned locations.

Using my estimated 129 years per mutation dating SNP blocks above DF13 at 3750 ybp (my suggested DF13 age) working backwards.

R1b1a2 - M269 - 7 < 903 yrs in block plus 6330 ybp = 7233 (5233bc)
R1b1a2a - L23 - 3 < 387 yrs in block plus 5943 ybp = 6330 (4330bc)
R1b1a2a1 - L51 - 4 < 516 yrs in block plus 5427 ybp = 5943 (3943bc)
R1b1a2a1a - L11 - 7 < 903 yrs in block plus 4524 ybp = 5427 (3427bc)
R1b1a2a1a2 - P312/U106 - 2 < 258 in block yrs plus 4266 ybp = 4524 (2524bc)
R1b1a2a1a2c - L21 - 4 < 516 in block yrs plus 3750 ybp = 4266 (2266bc)
DF13 - 3750 (1750bc)


https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9Y3jb2fORNbGZndU9TZjVocHM/view?usp=sharing

I can even speculate that the 4524 (2524bc) time location would have been a great jumping off point for U106 to go north into what is now eastern Europe.

MJost

I wouldnt agree with every detail of that but I dont think its hugely off the truth. I would place M269 in west Ukraine, L23 spilling in the east Carpathians and Lower Danube, L51 around Hungary, L11 around the Czech area, P312 around the Upper Danube-upper Rhine area and L21 in northern France or the Lower Rhine. I think the modern pattern only very crudely reflects the original position with significant east to west and up mountains displacement having occurred since.

alan
01-06-2015, 04:06 AM
I must admit I struggle to fit this gap between L21 and DF13 into an archaeological scenario, especially if L21 is tied to 2500BC. If the dating was literally true and we figure in its present distribtution then we would be looking at an early-mid Bronze Age network linking the continental channel, the isles and parts of west central Europe.There is a pattern of three way links between the isles, west central Europe and northern France seen in the metalwork of c. 2000-800BC although it is not normally seen as migratory, maybe it is wrong to look at metalwork in the beaker period as representing migration but not apply it to the Bronze Age. Its hard to say. The problem with using metalwork is it sets the bar very low for evidence and you would start to see migrations everywhere if metalwork trends were all that was required. We also have the problem that cremation dominated much of the Bronze Age in the isles so ancient DNA may not be easy to find. I wouldnt be surprised if something major we assume to be certain turns out to be wrong as we have had a number of unpredicted findings over the years. Maybe the vast majority of original beaker lineages have simply died out in the way most 4500 year old male lineages surely didand most of the surviving lineages date to later and we are partly fooling ourselves about the continuity of L21. There are not enough datapoints to know. Certainly there is no doubt that in places like Ireland a hell of a lot of the L21 does come from expansions of subclades which seem post-beaker. Indeed a lot of it is down to expansions in the last 2000 years. If we deleted all of the big clades and clusters that postdate say 200BC then there might not be a lot of Irish L21 left.

MJost
01-09-2015, 03:17 AM
I believe that you are pushing L21 (which is mostly DF13) to far north initially to cover the first derived SNP time frame under DF13. Just some extra back ground for those who may not know. Order of SNP occurance: R1b>L23>L51>L11>P312>L21>DF13.

My climate time line for reference.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9Y3jb2fORNUDdib0tnTU5uSms/view?usp=sharing

L51 block, which started around Budapest, would be aware of some trade cultures at this time (3943bc) The Copper Age (3500 – 2300 BC) has not started. For the past two thousand years or so, farming has slowly been spreading throughout Europe, and now covers most of the European continent. People live in small village communities, mostly practicing a mixed economy of agriculture and hunting and gathering. To the north the hunting and gathering elements predominate.

RMS posted this previously in another thread.
"David Anthony (From The Horse The Wheel and Language, page 367.)

The many thousands of Yamnaya kurgans in eastern Hungary suggest a more continuous occupation of the landscape by a larger population of immigrants, one that could have acquired power and prestige partly just through its numerical weight. This regional group could have spawned both pre-Italic and pre-Celtic. Bell Beaker sites of the Csepel type around Budapest, west of the Yamnaya settlement region, are dated about 2800-2600 BCE. They could have been a bridge between Yamnaya on their east and Austria/Southern Germany to their west, through which Yamnaya dialects spread from Hungary into Austria and Bavaria, where they later developed into Proto-Celtic. Pre-Italic could have developed among the dialects that remained in Hungary, ultimately spreading into Italy through the Urnfield and Villanovan cultures. Eric Hamp and others have revived the argument that Italic and Celtic shared a common parent, so a single migration stream could have contained dialects that later were ancestral to both."

Bell Beaker Culture in Central Europe started after 2500 BC. Two great coexisting and separate Central European cultures – the Corded Ware with its regional groups and the Eastern Group of the Bell Beaker Culture – form the background to the Late Copper Age and Early Bronze Age. Their development, diffusion and long range changes are determined by the great river systems.

The Corded Ware culture (2450/2350 cal. BC), 2400 BC, were a people that replaced their predecessors and expanded to down to Danubian areas and was probably the first culture in which most recent few SNPs in the R1b-L11 block of lineages (which started around 3427bc, 900 years earlier, in SE Romania Danube moving up river into the western plains of Hungary and further west). Just after P312's intital age of 2500bc, would be fully aware of the Bell Beaker culture and would have spread the Bell Beaker culture back through his ancestral Danube down stream home lands back to L51's stomping grounds around Budapest. Some of the most recent ancestors of the L11 block played a major role with U106 and his sons (born 2500bc) of heading northwards from the original Danube up river trek interfacing with the Corded Ware culture.

Interacting continually with the Danubian culture folks, the other L11 block son, P312 (started 2500bc time frame also), with their influences, went further up river spawning his multiple subclades which L21 and DF27 and its subclade(s) who were part of the Central Europe Bronze Period A1, 2300-1950 BC; made up of these upper Danube and later Rhine influences: Wieselburg culture, Early Bronze Age of South-East Alps, Unterwölbling culture, Straubing culture, EBA of north Alps, incl. Singen & Neckar-Ries-Lech groups, & Adlerberg groups, with the Únětice culture on the edge.

The SNPs in the R1b-L21 block of lineages started around 2266bc during an archaeological culture of the Central European Bronze Age, dated roughly to about 2300–1600 BC. The subclade(s) of L21 and DF27 were part of different waves up the Rhine and westward across France.

I would have to conclude that L21 which has very few L21* guys (who need more Full Genome NGS testing) was the main P312 subclade who stayed close to home right around the established trade route intersections in central Europe. The L21 block has four or five SNPs in a string before DF13 or DF63 were even spawned, which indicates a long 500+ year span of what it appears as a strong bottle neck event until DF13 and DF63 were born. The recent side of the L11 block of SNPs experienced a two degree Celsius drop starting around 3000bc which bottomed out around 2750bc. P312/U106 were born shortly there after, around 2560bc, enjoyed experiencing the temp uptick back up to almost to the previous 3000bc high temperature range. Two SNPs later (260 years later), L21 was born, and right after his birth, another drop of around 1.5 degree C. occurred over next 400 or so years, which I could assume cause major crop issues contributing to the mentioned strong bottle neck event. Then the temperature uptick occurred again and DF13 was spawned and his sons enjoyed a pretty steady climate temperature increase ending at about 1200bc to the same amount of the two earlier highest levels that occurred at around 4800bc and 5700bc. Note: the lowest High Temperature range hit its lowest point around the 6200bc (8200 ybp) event, 800 years after the start of the European Neolithic expansion.

Tumulus culture dominated Central Europe during the Middle Bronze Age (ca. 1600 BC to 1200 BC). It was the descendant of the Unetice culture. Its heartland was the area previously occupied by the Unetice culture besides Bavaria and Württemberg. The Tumulus culture was succeeded by the Late Bronze Age Urnfield culture.

With the mentioned long term warming time period allowed "Big Daddy DF13" to then have a massive number of initial sons and these sons had many sons continuing for several more generations, enough to create at least 23 separate subclades, to date, with STR diversity confirmed. For the DF13 story, these sons participated in a short term massive growth spurt over a "One SNP" time frame (130 years per SNP) which is, at max, around a 260 year window or about between one to ten or so generations before the second SNP below DF13 occurred. Mostly, (most probably) all of these sons over this many generations occurred all in one general area and I believe it would have been in the upper Danube and into the middle Rhine plains based on where L21's was estimated to be on the Danube River chart I posted.

DF13 massive expansion slowed almost to a bottleneck situation itself, around just at or prior to 1200 BC when their was a massive cool down in the climate of 4 degrees which would have caused major crop issues over next 250 years. The Hekla 3 eruption was about this time, and is dated at 1159 BC (the event has several different later dates quoted i.e. 1021 + 130/-100 BC) by Egyptologists and British archeologists, and between 1200 and 1150 BC, the cultural collapse of many Kingdoms, blamed on famines, is said to have caused the disruption of long distance trade cut easy supplies of tin, making bronze impossible to make. Northern edge settlements in the Isles were abandoned. The Bronze Age collapse may be seen in the context of a technological history that saw the slow, comparatively continuous spread of iron-working technology in the region, beginning with precocious iron-working in what is now Bulgaria and Romania in the 13th and 12th centuries BCE reaching the massive DF13 clans as La Tene.

The Urnfield culture (1300–750bc) was a late Bronze Age culture of central Europe. The name comes from the custom of cremating the dead and placing their ashes in urns which were then buried in fields. The Urnfield culture followed the Tumulus culture and was succeeded by the Hallstatt culture. The early urnfield period (1300 BC) was a time when the warriors of central Europe could be heavily armored with body armor, helmets and shields all made of bronze. Big Daddy DF13's sons surely were involved in this manufacture and trade prior to this time period at around the 1600-1500bc range until the late Bronze Age collapsed. A general systems collapse has been put forward as an explanation for the reversals in culture that occurred between the Urnfield culture of the 12–13th centuries BC and the rise of the Celtic Hallstatt culture in the 9th and 10th centuries BC. The archaeological evidence shows a widespread collapse of Bronze Age civilization in the eastern Mediterranean world at the outset of the 1100–800bc period. Any small communities who depended on copper & tin mining and trading collapsed quickly.

Wet conditions occurred two generations after collapse in 800BC. Experts from Universities in Britain and Ireland think social and economic pressures were primarily to blame - but harsh weather made it worse When iron production took over, bronze trading networks failed. This caused widespread conflict and social collapse. Climate records reveal that icy conditions didn’t occur until around 750BC. An expert said social and economic stress is more likely to be the cause of the sudden and widespread fall in numbers. Communities producing bronze needed to trade over very large distances to obtain copper and tin, and control of these networks enabled the growth of complex societies dominated by a warrior elite. As iron production took over, these networks collapsed, leading to widespread conflict and social collapse. ‘Although climate change was not directly responsible for the collapse it is likely that the poor climatic conditions would have affected farming. ‘This would have been particularly difficult for vulnerable communities, preventing population recovery for several centuries.’

Http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2838090/Climate-change-did-NOT-cause-collapse-Bronze-Age.html#ixzz3OGvhSvCP

I see the above timing is younger than the Greenland GISP dates I mentioned earlier. The point is that climate plays very important aspects to a society. I am seeing Y-DNA STR coalesce dates around the 500-200bc range for the various subclades which may represent founders who move to the isles as it was warming again through 100bc but dropped to lower ranges ever including the 1200AD drop almost as low as the 8.2kyr event.

La Tene was the key to the preceding years and expansion onto the Isles maybe due to the start of Germanic expansions into Austria, southern and western Germany, the German-speaking parts of Switzerland, the Dutch and Flemish-speaking parts of the Low Countries.

Archeological evidence suggests a relatively uniform Germanic people were located at about 750 BCE from the Netherlands to the Vistula and Southern Scandinavia. In the west the coastal floodplains were populated for the first time, since in adjacent higher grounds the population had increased and the soil became exhausted. At about 250 BCE, some expansion to the south had occurred and five general groups can be distinguished: North Germanic in southern Scandinavia, excluding Jutland; North Sea Germanic, along the North Sea and in Jutland; Rhine-Weser Germanic, along the middle Rhine and Weser; Elbe Germanic, along the middle Elbe; and East Germanic, between the middle Oder and the Vistula.

Frankenstein and Rowlands (1978), and Wells (1980) have suggested late Hallstatt trade contact to be a direct catalyst for the development of an elite class that came into existence around northeastern France, the Middle Rhine region, and adjacent Alpine regions (Collis 1984:41), culminating to new cultural developments and the advent of the classical Gaulish La Tene Culture. The development of La Tene culture extended to the north around 200 to 150 BCE, including the North German Plain, Denmark and Southern Scandinavia:

In certain cremation graves, situated at some distance from other graves, Celtic metalwork appears: brooches and swords, together with wagons, Roman cauldrons and drinking vessels. The area of these rich graves is the same as the places where later (the 1st century CE) princely graves are found. A ruling class seems to have emerged, distinguished by the possession of large farms and rich grave gifts such as weapons for the men and silver objects for the women, imported earthenware and Celtic items.

Some 20th-century writers consider the possibility of a separate "Nordwestblock" identity of the tribes settled along the Rhine at the time, assuming the arrival of a Germanic superstrate from the 1st century BCE and a subsequent "Germanization" or language replacement through the "elite-dominance" model.

All of this would influence DF13's many subclades movements from these areas further west and onto the isles with La Tene.

Looking at two of the main P312 subclades, 9000+ L21 and 600+ DF27 continental 67 marker haplotypes and their declared MDKA's in the below link. (L152 is another story mostly.) Germany and France are the majority geographical points and looking at L21 (which we should be using the DF13 in most cases) in the same identified area, Baden-Württemberg and middle Rhine areas. Northern Coastal MDKAs surely can not be older than the south central HTs as movement down the Rhine would have been a most probable next direction of land movements by groups of DF13 subclade families with some then moving west along the northern France coast or jumping to Britain side. Even the Ancient, 1AD Celt Hinxton's DF21+ Z246+ family shows a small foot print via interrelatedness from the continent.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9Y3jb2fORNLV8yX0xrTklmQzA/view?usp=sharing

MJost

Chad Rohlfsen
01-14-2015, 03:17 AM
Hungary at 3900BCE is way too early and too far west. That would be the Lengyel culture. Neither them, nor Baden, show any ANE influence. This is too soon for R1b.

MJost
01-14-2015, 05:46 AM
...

L51 block, which started around Budapest, would be aware of some trade cultures at this time (3943bc) The Copper Age (3500 – 2300 BC) has not started.
...
MJost
A typo: s/b Bucharest, Romania not Budapest, Hungary.

MJost

MJost
01-14-2015, 05:49 AM
Hungary at 3900BCE is way too early and too far west. That would be the Lengyel culture. Neither them, nor Baden, show any ANE influence. This is too soon for R1b.

Was what I just corrected above about L51 near Budapest, Hungary but should have been Bucharest related to your comment?

MJost

Chad Rohlfsen
01-14-2015, 04:10 PM
Yes. That sounds a lot better.

alan
01-14-2015, 10:35 PM
There were at least small numbers of Sredny Stog derived groups in the Lower Danube and north Balkans from as early as 4200BC. So, it seem likely that some R and some ANE was present in those areas from long before Yamnaya. It is generally seen as a relatively small intrusion though with only a small number of burials known. The fact they do not turn up in some Balkans cultures that are probably of native descent is not surprising. The small number of these burials would seem to me to mean that only very specific testing of those burials might turn up steppe DNA. However in theory the chronology means that L23xL51 and L51 or its immediate ancestor could have been around the Lower Danube and north Balkans area around 4000BC.

Chad Rohlfsen
01-15-2015, 01:52 AM
Mark,
Are you able to predict an age for pre-L23 up to M-343, including P297 and P25?

MJost
01-15-2015, 03:25 AM
Mark,
Are you able to predict an age for pre-L23 up to M-343, including P297 and P25?
R1b-M343's age is about 7104 (5104bc)

R1b-M343/PF6242 6 SNPs (includes lead SNP into the L23 Block) covering 774 yrs in block, 6330-7104 (4330-5104bc)
SNPs below
(2) M415/PF6251 * L278
(1) L389/PF6531
(2) P297/PF6398 * L320/PF6092

L23 - 3 SNPs covering 387 yrs in block, 5943 - 6330 (3943-4330bc)
L51 - 4 SNPs covering 516 yrs in block, 5427 - 5943 (3427-3943bc)

MJost

MJost
01-15-2015, 04:09 AM
There were at least small numbers of Sredny Stog derived groups in the Lower Danube and north Balkans from as early as 4200BC. So, it seem likely that some R and some ANE was present in those areas from long before Yamnaya. It is generally seen as a relatively small intrusion though with only a small number of burials known. The fact they do not turn up in some Balkans cultures that are probably of native descent is not surprising. The small number of these burials would seem to me to mean that only very specific testing of those burials might turn up steppe DNA. However in theory the chronology means that L23xL51 and L51 or its immediate ancestor could have been around the Lower Danube and north Balkans area around 4000BC.

I believe L23xL51 was found in the highest variance in eastern Romania along the Black Sea. It took 387 yrs for the block of L51 to start and considering the R1b tribe started moving up the Danube river placed it around the Bucharest, Romania. Not knowing the exact order of four SNPs in the L51 block, moved further upstream from Bucharest to were the L11 block started just 100 km down river from Belgrade, Serbia. Again, the time range for these four SNPs was 5427 - 5943 ybp (3427-3943bc).

Was this any way related to being near the Balkan Copper experience where R1b-L51 and L11 block guys might have become directly involved in the trade influence from the Balkans and much later Carpathians as the Block of L11 move northwards up the Danube River over the next seven SNPs covering over the next 900 years?

Not sure how to consider the three groups of DNA, including ANE was present in those areas from long before Yamnaya.

MJost

Chad Rohlfsen
01-15-2015, 04:27 AM
The highest variance was Eastern Bulgaria, by a landslide. I'm not sure if they left the coast before 3300BCE. Where do you show the highest variance for L11? I think I've seen a map where the highest variance pre L11, was still Bulgaria.

Chad Rohlfsen
01-15-2015, 04:34 AM
Are you sure about that age for m343? That seems too young for v88 or P25.

MJost
01-15-2015, 04:53 AM
No just the combined L23 R1b-L23asterisk Variance Karachanak etal Modern Bulgarians and R1b-Early FtDNA-r1 chart did.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9Y3jb2fORNR0xpSENNWmpZSHc/view?usp=sharing

Need better L51 and L11 confirmed data to do a similar chart.

MJost

MJost
01-15-2015, 05:09 AM
Where are my Interns???? To create and proof my kitchen table theories???

MJost

MJost
01-15-2015, 03:09 PM
V88 is part of the other branch of M415, Y8462 which is a block of 39 SNPs branch, which I didn't evaluate. As to P25, I think its now classed as a flippy SNP now and should not be considered. I used Yfull's tree list. I am not sure if we have ever seen a Full NGS on a V88 person so we don't know how many more SNPs to a terminal node or even what the last of the 39 SNPs represents in placement on the tree branch. From R1b down to DF13 has around 35 SNPs.
or
Now just FYI, down the trunk below R1b-M343's, age is about 7104 (5104bc), there are 44 SNPs in a block back to R1 adding 5676 years or 12780 (10780bc). Well the point of origin of R1b is thought to lie in Eurasia, most likely in Western Asia, T. Karafet et al. estimated the age of R1, the parent of R1b, as 18,500 years before present. If I add the next earlier node, another 23 SNPs, or 2967 years places R at 15747 years before present.

MJost

alan
01-15-2015, 03:55 PM
R1b-M343's age is about 7104 (5104bc)

R1b-M343/PF6242 6 SNPs (includes lead SNP into the L23 Block) covering 774 yrs in block, 6330-7104 (4330-5104bc)
SNPs below
(2) M415/PF6251 * L278
(1) L389/PF6531
(2) P297/PF6398 * L320/PF6092

L23 - 3 SNPs covering 387 yrs in block, 5943 - 6330 (3943-4330bc)
L51 - 4 SNPs covering 516 yrs in block, 5427 - 5943 (3427-3943bc)

MJost

what date do you get for M269?

alan
01-15-2015, 03:57 PM
V88 is part of the other branch of M415, Y8462 which is a block of 39 SNPs branch, which I didn't evaluate. As to P25, I think its now classed as a flippy SNP now and should not be considered. I used Yfull's tree list. I am not sure if we have ever seen a Full NGS on a V88 person so we don't know how many more SNPs to a terminal node or even what the last of the 39 SNPs represents in placement on the tree branch. From R1b down to DF13 has around 35 SNPs.
or
Now just FYI, down the trunk below R1b-M343's, age is about 7104 (5104bc), there are 44 SNPs in a block back to R1 adding 5676 years or 12780 (10780bc). Well the point of origin of R1b is thought to lie in Eurasia, most likely in Western Asia, T. Karafet et al. estimated the age of R1, the parent of R1b, as 18,500 years before present. If I add the next earlier node, another 23 SNPs, or 2967 years places R at 15747 years before present.

MJost

That is impossible because Mal'ta was derived from R and dates to 24000ya

alan
01-15-2015, 04:14 PM
I believe L23xL51 was found in the highest variance in eastern Romania along the Black Sea. It took 387 yrs for the block of L51 to start and considering the R1b tribe started moving up the Danube river placed it around the Bucharest, Romania. Not knowing the exact order of four SNPs in the L51 block, moved further upstream from Bucharest to were the L11 block started just 100 km down river from Belgrade, Serbia. Again, the time range for these four SNPs was 5427 - 5943 ybp (3427-3943bc).

Was this any way related to being near the Balkan Copper experience where R1b-L51 and L11 block guys might have become directly involved in the trade influence from the Balkans and much later Carpathians as the Block of L11 move northwards up the Danube River over the next seven SNPs covering over the next 900 years?

Not sure how to consider the three groups of DNA, including ANE was present in those areas from long before Yamnaya.

MJost

As I posted above, dates as early as 4200BC in the Balkans/Lower Danube could still be steppic because the earliest steppe groups (Suvorovo offshoots of Sredny Stog) spilled into that area at that date. The numbers were small so would be very hard to detect unless these steppe derived burials were specifically targeted for testing. East Bulgaria was the Varna culture area but it was also the repeated target of steppe peoples. If my memory serves me right there was a Suvorovo group there.

The problem with a non-steppic Balkans model for R1b is that these early copper age groups like Varna etc seem to be derived from farmers and to date R1b is lacking from any Balkans or suspected Balkans derived farming cultures anywhere in Europe.

Another thing I would say is there has almost certainly over the last 5000 plus years been a situation where new groups would have repeatedly driven older groups into the mountains and other unfavourable landscapes. So, I suspect many of the copper age lines are somewhat displaced into the Balkans mountains from the plains. That probably happened multiple times and I doubt for example Albanians live in their original homeland. Linguistic studies would indicate they probably spent a long period in somewhere like Romania before being displaced. Probably similar has happened to Armenians from some east Balkan home. So, I wouldnt take present positions too literally. To me the Armenians and Albanians are probably evidence that R1b was located in those populations when they lived in easterly parts of the Balkans. It has also often been considered that the Greeks have been displaced to their present position from points north and east. If the IEs were a low grassland people then a lot of their descendants linguistically have been displaced into more upland areas by later waves.

MJost
01-15-2015, 05:01 PM
R1b-M343's age is about 7104 (5104bc)

R1b-M343/PF6242 6 SNPs (includes lead SNP into the L23 Block) covering 774 yrs in block, 6330-7104 (4330-5104bc)
SNPs below
(2) M415/PF6251 * L278
(1) L389/PF6531
(2) P297/PF6398 * L320/PF6092

L23 - 3 SNPs covering 387 yrs in block, 5943 - 6330 (3943-4330bc)
L51 - 4 SNPs covering 516 yrs in block, 5427 - 5943 (3427-3943bc)

MJost
Ok, lets back up and redo
(My hurry posting left out M269 SNP block and copy and pasting errors)

R1b-M343's age is about 8007 (6007bc)

R1b-M343/PF6242 6 SNPs (includes lead SNP into the M269 Block) covering 774 yrs in block, 7233 - 8007 (5233 -6007bc)
SNPs below
(2) M415/PF6251 * L278
(1) L389/PF6531
(2) P297/PF6398 * L320/PF6092

R1b1a2 - M269 - 7 < 903 yrs in block plus 6330 ybp = 7233 (5233bc){AK*: ~7000 ybp]
R1b1a2a - L23 - 3 < 387 yrs in block plus 5943 ybp = 6330 (4330bc) {AK: 6000 ybp}
R1b1a2a1 - L51 - 4 < 516 yrs in block plus 5427 ybp = 5943 (3943bc) {AK: 4850 ybp}


...
Now just FYI, down the trunk below R1b-M343's, age is about 7104 (5104bc), there are 44 SNPs in a block back to R1 adding 5676 years or 12780 (10780bc). Well the point of origin of R1b is thought to lie in Eurasia, most likely in Western Asia, T. Karafet et al. estimated the age of R1, the parent of R1b, as 18,500 years before present. If I add the next earlier node, another 23 SNPs, or 2967 years places R at 15747 years before present.

MJostFurther adjustments to numbers used to arrive at second post I did #64791.

R1b-M343's, age is about 8007 (6007bc) there are 44 SNPs in a block back to R1 adding 5676 years or 13683(11683bc). Well the point of origin of R1b is thought to lie in Eurasia, most likely in Western Asia, T. Karafet et al. estimated the age of R1, the parent of R1b, as 18,500 years before present.

I should have added this info (T. Karafet et al. estimated the age of R1, the parent of R1b, as 18,500 (12,500 - 25,700) years before present).

If I add the next earlier node, another 23 SNPs, or 2967 years places R at 16650 years before present.

Until full ChrY NGC on these Ancient sources, I don't think we can use SNPs this far back due to some possible missing SNPs?

MJost