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View Full Version : yfull age estimates suggest P312 expanded in 2000-2500 BC.



Krefter
11-07-2015, 07:57 AM
I think most R1b-P312 experts are aware of the information I'm posting. For the first time I tried to get detailed information about R1b-P312. What I did was look at results of the DF27, U152, and L21 Projects at FTDNA. I then combined the subclade results with age estimates for from yfull. The results are very interesting to me.

Here the results I got.

R1b-P312 FTDNA Projects (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ysFeX3tYBOzcuudJ4nAkKtWh7lzX147PcchPP_L6emk/edit#gid=2130304281)
http://www.anthrogenica.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=6584&stc=1


How yfull suggests P312 expanded rapidly in 2000-2500 BC.

There's hardly any separation between the birth of P312 and its popular deep subclades. Mr. L21>DF13, Mr. U152>L2, Mr. DF27>Z195 proabbly lived within a few generations of each other. There are some very popular subclades under those 5 clades and all have a TMRCA of over 4,000 years. So, those subclades literally like their great grandsons. After that there were no or very few mega-fathers. There are very few P312 subclades with a TMRCA of less than 3500 that are popular.

TMRCAs are painting a scenario where Mr. P312 was born in 3000 BC, DF27/L21/U152 were born within a few hundred years, and then a few hundred years after that DF27/L21/U152 expanded with a handful of new subclades.

R1b-P312 could have expanded within Bell Beaker

Bell Beaker was around at the right time and existed in the right region to be practically the sole source of R1b-P312. So, I now agree with rms2 and others who say that most P312 expanded within Bell Beaker. Because of how quickly it looks like R1b-P312 expanded, it's possible the P312 line was a royal-line of some-form that for a few hundred years expanded and ruled most of West Europe. That can explain it's quick expansion and popularity.

BTW, here's my spreadsheet: Ancient West Eurasian Y DNA. You can see the P312, including U152, results for Bell Beaker. The 2600 BC R1b(xU106) from Bell beaker is certainly a very early P312. I'm also confident the pre-Beaker 2800 BC R1b(xU106) from Hungary is from some of the first P312.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12G2cfjG0wHWarsl5bB99ridFmvUWzqlZfZ6_e_R6oIA/edit#gid=1870266760

R1b-P312 keeps getting more and more interesting. yfull age estimates are not consistent with an Iron age or Bronze age spread at all. It's crazy, it looks like the major P312 subclades might have been relatives. It's exciting to have P312 considering it could be the legacy of a royal Bell beaker family, but this also means our paternal line is from an oppressive family that conquered people and had 1,000s of wives and concubines via evil means.

By next year we'll have Y DNA results from Western Bell Beaker and an R1b indvidual from Hungary dating to 2800 BC. I expect both to be P312. For Western Bell Beaker I specifically expect DF27>Z195. I think P312 originated in Central-East Europe in 3000 BC and expanded rapidly within Bell Beaker.

rms2
11-07-2015, 05:24 PM
I still wonder about the very earliest Bell Beaker from Iberia. Jean M points out that it is associated with copper metallurgy, anthropomorphic stelae, and the domestication of horses, all of which taken together point to the steppe, but there are a few things that puzzle me about it (and I am only talking about the very earliest Iberian Bell Beaker here, not Beaker in general).


First, those earliest Bell Beaker finds come from Neolithic-type collective tombs and not from single graves in pits covered with a round tumulus. They lack the warrior kit of later Beaker burials.



Second, unless I am mistaken (and someone correct me if I am), the bodies in those earliest Beaker burials are of the Mediterranean physical type: short in stature, long headed (dolichocephalic), and slight (gracile) in build. That is the physical type most commonly associated with Near Eastern-derived Neolithic farmers.



Later Bell Beaker people were buried in pits under round tumuli and were accompanied by not only Beaker pottery but also by weapons. Physically they were tall for the period, of robust build, and many of them were brachycephalic or mesocephalic.

Jean M suggests that perhaps the early pre-Beaker steppe pioneers in Iberia intermarried with local women so that their descendants acquired Mediterranean physiognomy. That is a possibility, but add to that the absence of steppe-type kurgan burials.

I am not ready to assert dogmatically that the earliest Bell Beaker people were not R1b, but I do wonder about it. I think it's possible they were not.

It could be that late Vucedol (which Gimbutas said was the product of the amalgamation of Vucedol and Yamnaya) acquired Bell Beaker pottery in the Carpathian basin and spread back west as what we think of when we think of Bell Beaker, that is, the horse riding steppe pastoralist people who buried their significant dead in single graves in pits under round tumuli and accompanied with a warrior's kit of weapons. If that is the case, then it is likely R1b did not enter Bell Beaker until Bell Beaker encountered late Vucedol. Perhaps that is how Bell Beaker acquired R1b along with those other traits I mentioned.

ArmandoR1b
11-07-2015, 07:13 PM
By next year we'll have Y DNA results from Western Bell Beaker and an R1b indvidual from Hungary dating to 2800 BC. I expect both to be P312. For Western Bell Beaker I specifically expect DF27>Z195. I think P312 originated in Central-East Europe in 3000 BC and expanded rapidly within Bell Beaker.

DF27* is almost as common as Z195 in Spain per the study quoted in the Valverde thread so the don't be surprised if Western Bell Beaker has DF27*. http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?4723-Dissection-of-the-Y-SNP-S116-in-Atlantic-Europe-and-Iberia-Valverde-et-al-2015&p=111565&viewfull=1#post111565

Krefter
11-07-2015, 08:27 PM
DF27* is almost as common as Z195 in Spain per the study quoted in the Valverde thread so the don't be surprised if Western Bell Beaker has DF27*. http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?4723-Dissection-of-the-Y-SNP-S116-in-Atlantic-Europe-and-Iberia-Valverde-et-al-2015&p=111565&viewfull=1#post111565

Thanks for pointing that out. Very few of FTDNA's DF27s come from Iberia so I shouldn't have made the assumption it has the same structure.

Gravetto-Danubian
11-07-2015, 10:51 PM
I understand what trees of extant Lineages data suggests- rapid speed and branching; but it would be nice to confirm with aDNA just how long it took for R1b to become dominant in western Europe. I'd imagine it was at least until the developed Bronze Age (ie after 2000 BC; maybe even later) (?)

This would give is clearer pattern about the social processes and mating patterns

kinman
11-07-2015, 11:57 PM
I would agree with East Europe, but not as far west as the Danube. Ukraine or Moldova seem most likely, and then P312's brother clade (U106) going north (on the east side of the Carpathians) to become part of Corded Ware.

As for the timing, I would still add a few hundred years (about 3400 B.C.). I have always thought YFull tends to underestimate the true median ages. Then the subclades of P312 wouldn't be quite so bunched together in time (P312 giving rise to U152, in turn giving rise to L2, in turn giving rise to Z49, ALL at the very same formation time of 2500 BC).

In any case, I find it very hard to believe that three successive generations each had an SNP change one after another. Even a King can't rush such evolutionary change. So I would say these successive clades split at least a century apart if not more.

------------------Ken

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I think P312 originated in Central-East Europe in 3000 BC and expanded rapidly within Bell Beaker.

Krefter
11-08-2015, 12:23 AM
I would agree with East Europe, but not as far west as the Danube. Ukraine or Moldova seem most likely, and then P312's brother clade (U106) going north (on the east side of the Carpathians) to become part of Corded Ware.

As for the timing, I would still add a few hundred years (about 3400 B.C.). I have always thought YFull tends to underestimate the true median ages. Then the subclades of P312 wouldn't be quite so bunched together in time (P312 giving rise to U152, in turn giving rise to L2, in turn giving rise to Z49, ALL at the very same formation time of 2500 BC).

In any case, I find it very hard to believe that three successive generations each had an SNP change one after another. Even a King can't rush such evolutionary change. So I would say these successive clades split at least a century apart if not more.

------------------Ken

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Yeah, age estimates are probably a little off.

R.Rocca
11-08-2015, 02:31 AM
R1b-P312 keeps getting more and more interesting. yfull age estimates are not consistent with an Iron age or Bronze age spread at all. It's crazy, it looks like the major P312 subclades might have been relatives. It's exciting to have P312 considering it could be the legacy of a royal Bell beaker family, but this also means our paternal line is from an oppressive family that conquered people and had 1,000s of wives and concubines via evil means.

While it's a nice graphic you've put here, I'm not sure why this is nothing new. The STR calculators of the well respected Ken Nordstedt gave similar dates many years ago. Of course, we didn't have DF27 back then, but P312* was always close in age to U152. Anway, the STR signatures themselves tell us that these lineages split up in short succession.

rms2
11-08-2015, 02:37 AM
While it's a nice graphic you've put here, I'm not sure why this is nothing new. The STR calculators of the well respected Ken Nordstedt gave similar dates many years ago. Of course, we didn't have DF27 back then, but P312* was always close in age to U152. Anway, the STR signatures themselves tell us that these lineages split up in short succession.

And we didn't have ancient y-dna back then, so Ken caught a lot of guff because so many people back then just knew that everything had to be at least three times older than the STRs indicated.

Ancient dna has really curtailed a lot of the utter nonsense that used to get posted in the various dna chat venues. Not that no nonsense gets posted now; there just seems to be less of it.

kinman
11-08-2015, 02:45 AM
Hi Richard.
I agree, but the question is still how short that succession was. 30 years, 90 years, or even 200 years. Perhaps most likely closer to 90 years, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was longer than that in some cases. Isn't 90-100 years per SNP probably a pretty good estimate (on average)?
----------------Ken
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While it's a nice graphic you've put here, I'm not sure why this is nothing new. The STR calculators of the well respected Ken Nordstedt gave similar dates many years ago. Of course, we didn't have DF27 back then, but P312* was always close in age to U152. Anway, the STR signatures themselves tell us that these lineages split up in short succession.

haleaton
11-12-2015, 11:20 PM
One thing that interests me in YFull age estimation is that it really requires multiple sample evenly weighted and there is issue of Big Y coverage, or even NGC coverage which is at limit of current technology, to have any hope of accuracy.

The question is if there can be spans of 10-20 generations in a single line where there are no SNP mutations that can be found based on current technology. Now these outliers may have other parallel descendant who follow more of the 144 years per SNP average over large samples.

When we talk of expansion are we thinking of times in a few generations or over dozens?