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View Full Version : What do the 5 SNPs below DF21 in Rathlin mean for the dating of DF13, L21 and P312?



alan
01-14-2016, 06:20 PM
Well I make that a string of 8 SNPs down from P312 in a guy who lived in 2000BC. Any thoughts? That is not including the period between L21 and DF13 which I dont really understand. I realise that in one sample you can get odd runs of SNPs but one would have to be a major skeptic to not think that the Rathlin guy lived a few centuries after DF21, What I am most interested in is what does this mean for the date of P312?

northkerry
01-14-2016, 08:05 PM
Well I make that a string of 8 SNPs down from P312 in a guy who lived in 2000BC. Any thoughts? That is not including the period between L21 and DF13 which I dont really understand. I realise that in one sample you can get odd runs of SNPs but one would have to be a major skeptic to not think that the Rathlin guy lived a few centuries after DF21, What I am most interested in is what does this mean for the date of P312?

It means that P312 is older than the TMRCA that is given at Yfull. Also, the DF21 Rathlin Islander's left no descendants but at least you know that some DF21 was in Ireland in the EBA. A lot of the DF21 branches in Ireland probably have different pathways.

r_r_abril
01-14-2016, 10:10 PM
alan,

Which were those 5 SNPs below L21?

Are there shared by modern individuals?

rms2
01-15-2016, 01:09 AM
Well I make that a string of 8 SNPs down from P312 in a guy who lived in 2000BC. Any thoughts? That is not including the period between L21 and DF13 which I dont really understand. I realise that in one sample you can get odd runs of SNPs but one would have to be a major skeptic to not think that the Rathlin guy lived a few centuries after DF21, What I am most interested in is what does this mean for the date of P312?

One thing I think it means is that it is unlikely that DF21 arose anywhere in the Isles and certainly not in Ireland, and it's almost a sure bet that L21 and DF13 arose on the Continent. That is, unless one wants to divorce them from Bell Beaker and say they predate Bell Beaker in the Isles.

7281

I think it also makes it likely that P312 was in western Yamnaya.

Kopfjäger
01-15-2016, 01:14 AM
One thing I think it means is that it is unlikely that DF21 arose anywhere in the Isles and certainly not in Ireland, and it's almost a sure bet that L21 and DF13 arose on the Continent. That is, unless one wants to divorce them from Bell Beaker and say they predate Bell Beaker in the Isles.

7281

I think it also makes it likely that P312 was in western Yamnaya.

Well said, Rich! I couldn't agree more.

alan
01-15-2016, 02:56 AM
One thing I think it means is that it is unlikely that DF21 arose anywhere in the Isles and certainly not in Ireland, and it's almost a sure bet that L21 and DF13 arose on the Continent. That is, unless one wants to divorce them from Bell Beaker and say they predate Bell Beaker in the Isles.

7281

I think it also makes it likely that P312 was in western Yamnaya.

and divorcing L21 derivatives in the isles from the beakers and placing them earlier among the western Neolithic people (who has so slight continental contact they didnt have metals which many areas had centuries before) would be crackpottery of the first water. So, its safe IMO to say DF13 existed before 2400BC on the continent IMO. Rathlin seems to suggest an SNP date around a little before 2650BC for DF13 but I suspect that is at least a little too old. I suspect a date for DF13 closer to 2400-2500BC at the most is the reality and fits the period of expansion of beaker into lands with L21 above trace levels better.

However U152 is just one SNP down from P312 as is L21 but the expanding in U152 is immediate. Archaeology suggests a commencement in the central European beakers no sooner than 2600BC which all suggests SNP counting can be out by a century or two. Personally I think it is very likely that the sudden branching phases below U152 and DF13 almost certainly must correlate the sudden expansion of beaker seen in the archaeology in their respective regions. I would therefore tend to place P312 before this as probably dating to around 2750BC and L11 to around 2900BC. I would place L11 on the western steppe c. 2900BC or thereabout and P312 and U106 forming in central Europe west of the stppes c. 2750BC give or take. I think a date around 2900BC or so for L11 makes sense as it times very well for a split that started in Ukraine with some L11 following the Danube and some going north up the Dnieper of Dniester.

MJost
01-15-2016, 04:20 AM
There are six SNPs which four are in CombBed ranges (#) and each position are separated by greater than 1000 bp. Doesn't seem likely that any of these occurred in more than single event mutations. But one could narrow the range between three but the average would stand over a large number of mutations.

FGC3218/S552/Y2598 4 619767-C-A
L459 5275051-C-G
L21/S145/M529 #15654428-C-G
S245/Z245 #22200784-C-G
Z260 #24411932-G-T
S461/Z290 #28632468-G-C

And there are 29 SNPs in this range

R-L23-L23/S141/PF6534 (Block of 2 SNPs)
R-L51-L51/M412/S167/PF6536 (5)
R-L11-L11/S127/PF6539 (12)
R-P312-P312/S116/PF6547 (2)
R-L21-L21/M529/S145 (6)
R-DF13-DF13/S521/CTS241 (2)


MJost

Gravetto-Danubian
01-15-2016, 04:53 AM
Have any of the YFull guys looked at this yet ? Or Someone like Smal ?

razyn
01-15-2016, 06:05 AM
However U152 is just one SNP down from P312 as is L21 but the expanding in U152 is immediate.
Well, if you leave out ZZ11, the shared SNP that is below P312 but above both U152 and its brother DF27.

The fact that YFull won't list it, or the fact that it doesn't meet ISOGGy criteria, does not mean that ZZ11 didn't exist -- and mark a split in the phylogeny, below P312 but above U152 and DF27. For "SNP" counting to mean what is claimed for it as an age estimator, one really must count all the detected splits in the phylogeny. We're trying to recover human prehistory with molecules, not playing "Simon says."

So U152 and DF27 are, as far as we have yet seen, two steps down from P312. But that, in turn, doesn't mean that the L21 mutation one step down happened earlier. It just happened in a more basal line of P312, that was still around at the time -- whatever time -- it happened. As did several other (but now smaller) subclades of P312 -- such as L238, DF99, DF19, and the new guys, some of whom we may have yet to meet.

R.Rocca
01-15-2016, 01:57 PM
Well, if you leave out ZZ11, the shared SNP that is below P312 but above both U152 and its brother DF27.

The fact that YFull won't list it, or the fact that it doesn't meet ISOGGy criteria, does not mean that ZZ11 didn't exist -- and mark a split in the phylogeny, below P312 but above U152 and DF27. For "SNP" counting to mean what is claimed for it as an age estimator, one really must count all the detected splits in the phylogeny. We're trying to recover human prehistory with molecules, not playing "Simon says."

So U152 and DF27 are, as far as we have yet seen, two steps down from P312. But that, in turn, doesn't mean that the L21 mutation one step down happened earlier. It just happened in a more basal line of P312, that was still around at the time -- whatever time -- it happened. As did several other (but now smaller) subclades of P312 -- such as L238, DF99, DF19, and the new guys, some of whom we may have yet to meet.

Considering L21 itself is part of a subclade that contains 6 SNPs (or 7 depending on what is considered), we can say with a high degree of confidence that the fully formed L21 et al clade did not happen before ZZ11.

R.Rocca
01-15-2016, 02:11 PM
Considering L21 itself is part of a subclade that contains 6 SNPs (or 7 depending on what is considered), we can say with a high degree of confidence that the fully formed L21 et al clade did not happen before ZZ11.

...and to add, since ZZ11 has been know to disappear in some DF27 and U152 subclades, is it stable enough to assume that it did not disappear at any time in the formation of the L21 et al subclade or any other P312 subclade for that matter??? Due to this doubt alone, it will likely never make its way onto the ISOGG tree IMO.

razyn
01-15-2016, 02:16 PM
Considering L21 itself is part of a subclade that contains 6 SNPs (or 7 depending on what is considered), we can say with a high degree of confidence that the fully formed L21 et al clade did not happen before ZZ11.
I tend to agree that L21 looks younger than ZZ11 -- but because of the latter's very wide distribution, rather than the number of SNPs it happens to have at a given level (including the top level).

Rory Cain
04-22-2016, 10:05 PM
It means that P312 is older than the TMRCA that is given at Yfull. Also, the DF21 Rathlin Islander's left no descendants but at least you know that some DF21 was in Ireland in the EBA. A lot of the DF21 branches in Ireland probably have different pathways.

Different pathways were discussed when the first Irish DF21+ results appeared, from Laois and Galway. It became evident that the Laois DF21+ group broadly corresponded with the historical Seven Septs of Laois. Some writers cited a tradition that O'More and O'Lalor had pedigrees connecting them to the Clanna Rory of Ulster. If indeed they had Ulster origins, that in turn would tend to point to Scotland as the point if departure for Ulster arrivals.

But other septs within the Seven Septs of Laois including Doolan/ Dowling have a pedigree connecting them to the Laighin who traditionally arrived from Gaul via Southern Britain.

The coalescence dates of the SNPs connecting these sept are more recent than the timeframe of the movements bringing the Laighin and the Clanna Rory to Leinster for both pedigrees to be correct. Either the Clanna Rory or the Laighin pedigree (or both) must be fabricated. If only one of those two pedigrees was fabricated, it's elimination might eliminate either the northern or the southern migration route.

IMHO the indicators now point to the northern route via Scotland, where DF21 results produce a genetic hotspot in Central Scotland. But DF21 being so old, the possibilities of some DF21+ pathways involving Wales or Southwest England are by no means excluded.