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MitchellSince1893
06-16-2016, 12:30 AM
Background:

Trying to solve a family mystery on my paternal line. Specifically the identity of my father's paternal grandfather's father. More on that here if you want more details http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?3987-Help-me-to-solve-a-family-Mystery-My-paternal-line-before-my-great-grandfather

Back in Jul 2015, my closest 67 marker match, Mr Alex Guess (Genetic distance of 8-12 depending on method) agreed to take FGC12401 SNP test at YSEQ.net. It came back positive which meant he shared at least 1 of the 5 SNPs on this terminal branch. The other 4 being FGC12402, FGC12403, FGC12404, FGC12405.

Based on this result he ordered FGC Y Elite 2.1 in September 2015. In November 2015 I also ordered Y Elite 2.1 for which my father provided the sample. Today he got his results. My father's should be out in a few weeks.

One of the FGC analytical results compares his SNP results to others that have sent their results to FGC. My father's BigY results are shown on this document as I had FGC analyze his results when they came out 2 years ago.

Based on the analysis my father's BigY results from FGC, Yfull, and FTDNA, I came up with a list of 21 novel/private SNPs.

Of these 21, Alex currently shares a 15 with my father. I was guessing it would be about a dozen based on our STR results, so happily I wasn't too far off.

He is definitely negative for one of my private SNPs, and the jury is still out on 5 other private SNPS.

Using the STR values (Alex Guess tested to 67 markers) we have a genetic distance 9/10 at 83 markers using the infinite/hybrid method.

SNPs we currently share include: FGC12384, FGC12385, FGC12387, FGC12388, FGC12389, FGC12392, FGC12393, FGC12397, FGC12398, FGC12399, FGC12400, FGC12406, FGC12408, FGC47889, FGC47894.

Private SNP he doesn't share: FGC12386

Further investigation is needed on these 5:
Position/Name
8173636 FGC12386
9862775 FGC12390
15129680 FGC12394
15607220 FGC12395
22318347 No name

Using the Yfull based SNP block age estimator:
If we share 15 SNPs then our most recent common ancestor would have live about 1013 years before present (ybp).
If any/all of the 5 SNPs that need further investigation turn out positive then the MRCA would have been as recent as 345 ybp (Based on the STR genetic distance I doubt it will be this close...may more like 1-2 of the 5 will end up positive.

My earlier guess was that it would have been 1200 years ago +/- 500 years.

With this test result I've jumped approximately 2000 years to the present, from 1000 BC to 1000 AD for my MCRA. Not too bad.

In a few weeks it will be interesting to compare my dad's BigY results to his FGC Y Elite 2.1 results.

Bottomline: I'm very happy about how many SNPs we share...it was better than I had estimated.

Shamash
06-16-2016, 08:46 PM
Congrats!

MitchellSince1893
06-16-2016, 10:56 PM
Update

Just got an answer from FGC on those 5 SNPs.

8173636 FGC12386: Alex is negative
9862775 FGC12390: Alex is negative
15129680 FGC12394: Alex is negative
15607220 FGC12395: Alex is negative
22318347 No name: Ambiguous results, but possibly shared.

EDIT: Also I was mistaken on FGC12396 not being shared (I mislabeled it FGC12386 in the 1st post in this thread) Instead it was an ambiguous read which FGC looked at further and said it's most likely positive.

In summary: That's 16-17 private SNPs I now share with Alex Guess, and 4 private SNPs we don't share.

So our most recent common ancestor (MRCA) may be in the 1100 - 1300 AD time frame. I know that sounds way back there in time, but I'm so much closer to present day than I was a just a few days ago (1000 BC) :bounce:

MitchellSince1893
06-19-2016, 08:59 PM
Alex Guess' data is now in Alex Williamson's Bigtree.
http://www.ytree.net/DisplayTree.php?blockID=1082&star=false

http://www.ytree.net/SNPinfoForPerson.php?personID=4025

Preliminary data shows that for R-FGC12401 et al:
25533979 A>G FGC47900 is showing up as positive for Guess and Riccio and ambiguous for Mitchell, Roberts, and Wheatley in Big Tree. So it's probably FGC12401 et al. level SNP.

-Branch 1 (R-Y19291, A2368): Roberts 268283, Riccio E14371, and Wheatley 209466 form one branch below R-FGC12401/02/03/04/05, sharing 16387379 Y19291 (A->G) and probably share 1 additional SNP A2368 (T->A)

--Branch 1a (R-L368): At this point Roberts and Wheatley split from Riccio, forming a new branch L368 et al., sharing at least 19 additional SNPs and probably more once indepth analysis is performed.

-Branch 2 (R-FGC12385 et al): Based on Mitchell 249822 BigY and Guess LEG9N FGC Y Elite 2.1 results this branch, according to Alex Williamson's initial look, shares 13 SNPs.

The following SNPs are shown as shared by Guess and Mitchell in FGC analysis but not showing up yet in BigTree early analysis
13871171 G>A FGC47889
09908330 G>T FGC47886

15878557 C>T FGC12396 is showing up as positive for Mitchell and ambiguous for Guess in both FGC analysis and initial BigTree analysis. FGC later confirmed Guess shared this SNP with Mitchell.

22318347 T>A. Isn't showing up yet in BigTree but according to FGC analysis for LEG9N Guess, "a good portion of the reads have the A allele" So this is potentially a shared SNP.

Again that's 16-17 shared SNPs by Guess and Me (depending on whether you count 22318347).

Once my FGC Y Elite 2.1 results come out in a few weeks I expect the number of shared SNPs to increase by a handful.

MitchellSince1893
06-23-2016, 12:15 AM
Using the "Yfull based SNP Block Age estimator" spreadsheet found in the thread link below, I took all the private SNPs of Alex Guess for which he was positive I was negative and got an older date for our most recent common ancestor.

There were 11 good quality FGC SNPs (didn't include indels) in this category of which 8 were in the ComBED region, providing a date of 666 AD for our shared ancestor.

Previously I used the same calculator with private SNPs for I was positive and Alex was negative.
There were 5 good quality BigY SNPs (didn't include indels) in this category of which 4 were in the ComBED region, providing a date of 1279 AD for our shared ancestor.

Needless to say, our shared common ancestor is probably further back than I initially thought.

Hopefully in a few weeks we will have Yfull actual age estimate for this branch.


http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?4067-Age-of-Z251-Based-on-YFull-SNP-Rate-Constants&p=76468&viewfull=1#post76468

MitchellSince1893
07-03-2016, 02:50 PM
My FGC Y Elite results are now available. Looks like I'm going rather busy for the next few hours.

MitchellSince1893
07-03-2016, 05:37 PM
Wow! Preliminary look at my FGC Y Elite results, reveals an additional ~29 private SNPs (non indels only) I share with Alex Guess.

This is in addition to the ~16 private SNPs previously identified by comparing Alex's FGC results to my BigY results.

So around 45 SNPs shared below R-FGC12401 branch.

Also, previously comparing Alex's FGC to my BigY identified 4 private SNPs (all non indels). My new FGC results identified an additional 14 private non indel SNPs I have that Alex is negative for. For a total of 18 private SNPs

That's a huge difference.

MitchellSince1893
07-14-2016, 09:28 PM
...
In summary: That's 16-17 private SNPs I now share with Alex Guess, and 4 private SNPs we don't share...
Yfull has updated my father's BigY (yfull id YF01489) novel list and I've gone from 16 good quality and acceptable SNPs to 4...which matches what I was getting when I looked at the data.

Yfull states that analysis of my father's FGC results (id YF06577) will be completed around 23 Aug. I estimate this will increase his good quality and acceptable SNP list to 18. His BigY and FGC results will both be on their tree with different id numbers. They request, in these circumstances that the customer inform Yfull that two kits are of the same person (in this case a BigY and FGC sample). https://www.yfull.com/faq/i-would-yfull-interpret-another-raw-data-file-do-i-need-open-new/

Alex Guess is now on Yfull's Ytree, and analysis of his results including dating of this branch should be complete in early August.
https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-Y9080/

MitchellSince1893
07-22-2016, 11:07 PM
While the official Yfull dates aren't out yet the statistics for both Mitchell YF06577/249822/UG4C9 and Guess YF06431/86098/LEG9N (Yfull id/FTDNA ID/FGC ID) are available. Also posted YF01489 which is the same person as YF06577 aka my father's BigY result for a direct comparison of FGC to BigY

YFull YF06431 (Y Elite 2.1)

RAW DATA
ChrY BAM file size: 0.32 Gb
Reads (all): 3957528
Mapped reads: 3947859 (99.76%)
Unmapped reads: 9669 (0.24%)
Length coverage: 20592299 bp (80.27%)
Min depth coverage: 1X
Max depth coverage: 2663X
Mean depth coverage: 24.46X
Median depth coverage: 19X
Length coverage for age: 8212004 bp
No call: 5061267 bp

Known SNPs
SNPs (all): 88013
Positive: 2971 (3.38%)
Negative: 84014 (95.46%)
Ambiguous: 145 (0.16%)
No call: 880 (1.00%)

Novel SNPs (all): 29
Best qual: 10 (34.48%) [10 (34.48%) - best; 0 (0.00%) - acceptable]
INDELs: 0
Ambiguous qual: 4 (13.79%)
One read!: 15 (51.72%)
Low qual: 0

Raw Data (Mt)
ChrM BAM file size: 462.42 Kb
Length coverage: 16569 bp (100.00%)
Min depth coverage: 1X
Max depth coverage: 1089X
Mean depth coverage: 41.89X
Median depth coverage: 12X
One reading position!: 23
No call: 0 bp

YFull YF06577 (FGC Y Elite 2.1)

RAW DATA
ChrY BAM file size: 0.38 Gb
Reads (all): 4994525
Mapped reads: 4993512 (99.98%)
Unmapped reads: 1013 (0.02%)
Length coverage: 20643665 bp (80.47%)
Min depth coverage: 1X
Max depth coverage: 2324X
Mean depth coverage: 27.05X
Median depth coverage: 20X
Length coverage for age: 8242420 bp
No call: 5009901 bp

Known SNPs
SNPs (all): 88013
Positive: 2975 (3.38%)
Negative: 84081 (95.53%)
Ambiguous: 149 (0.17%)
No call: 806 (0.92%)

Novel SNPs (all): 41
Best qual: 10 (24.39%) [8 (19.51%) - best; 2 (4.88%) - acceptable]
INDELs: 0
Ambiguous qual: 5 (12.20%)
One read!: 24 (58.54%)
Low qual: 2 (4.88%)

Raw Data (Mt)
ChrM BAM file size: 180.94 Kb
Length coverage: 15328 bp (92.51%)
Min depth coverage: 1X
Max depth coverage: 377X
Mean depth coverage: 15.47X
Median depth coverage: 5X
One reading position!: 1570
No call: 1241 bp

YFull YF01489 (BigY results is same person as YF06577)

RAW DATA
ChrY BAM file size: 0.51 Gb
Reads (all): 9962312
Mapped reads: 9962312 (100.00%)
Unmapped reads: 0
Length coverage: 13179112 bp (51.37%)
Min depth coverage: 1X
Max depth coverage: 7999X
Mean depth coverage: 66.20X
Median depth coverage: 41X
Length coverage for age: 7269144 bp
No call: 12474454 bp

Known SNPs
SNPs (all): 88013
Positive: 2062 (2.34%)
Negative: 66150 (75.16%)
Ambiguous: 271 (0.31%)
No call: 19491 (22.15%)

Novel SNPs (all): 47
Best qual: 4 (8.51%) [2 (4.26%) - best; 2 (4.26%) - acceptable]
INDELs: 0
Ambiguous qual: 43 (91.49%)
One read!: 0
Low qual: 0

Raw Data (Mt)
ChrM BAM file size: 431.78 Kb
Length coverage: 16562 bp (99.96%)
Min depth coverage: 2X
Max depth coverage: 3254X
Mean depth coverage: 58.43X
Median depth coverage: 26X
One reading position!: 0
No call: 7 bp


Using the Yfull-based SNP Block Age Estimator spreadsheet one can see FGC Guess got 148.50 years per SNP mutation in the combBed region, FGC Mitchell got 147.96 years per SNP mutation, and BigY Mitchell got 167.77 years per SNP mutation.

Based on my own analysis FGC Guess had 20 SNPs mutations in the combBed region and FGC Mitchell had 21, while Yfull has 14 SNPs for BigY Mitchell. The SNP mutation numbers for the FGC results may change once Yfull analysis is complete.

YFull YF06431 (Y Elite 2.1)

Resulting SNP Mutation Rate: 148.50 years per SNP mutation
(High of 173.96 years, Low of 129.55 years)
Phylogenetic Block Age Estimates:
Number of SNPs in CombBED Region: 20

Calculated Age of Phylogenetic Block: 2970.07 ybp = 1020BC
95% CI High = 3479.23 ybp =1529BC
95% CI Low = 2590.91 ybp =641BC

YFull YF06577 (FGC Y Elite 2.1)

Resulting SNP Mutation Rate: 147.96 years per SNP mutation
(High of 173.32 years, Low of 129.07 years)
Phylogenetic Block Age Estimates:
Number of SNPs in CombBED Region: 21

Calculated Age of Phylogenetic Block: 3107.07 ybp = 1157BC
95% CI High = 3639.71 ybp =1690BC
95% CI Low = 2710.42 ybp =760BC

YF01489 BigY (same person as YF06577)

Resulting SNP Mutation Rate: 167.77 years per SNP mutation
High of 196.53 years, Low of 146.35 years)
Phylogenetic Block Age Estimates:
Number of SNPs in CombBED Region: 14

Calculated Age of Phylogenetic Block: 2348.72 ybp = 399BC
95% CI High = 2751.36 ybp =801BC
95% CI Low = 2048.88 ybp =99BC
Using the FGC results for Guess and Mitchell, I get a range of 618 AD (Mitchell) to 762 AD (Guess) as the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) date. Using BigY Mitchell in the spreadsheet gave a date of 1111 AD. Yfull's official dates should be out in about a month.

The average for the Calculated Age of the Guess/Mitchell Phylogenetic Block is about 1090 BC when only using the two FGC results i.e. when our branch split from the other R-FGC12401 branch. The BigY derived date is 400 BC.

MitchellSince1893
07-28-2016, 02:21 AM
BigTree is now updated. Alex Williamson is calling this branch FGC 12385.

43 shared SNPs between Mitchell and Alex Guess on this branch listed below.

NOTE: If only my father's BigY result had been used there would have been 16 SNPs shared with Alex Guess on this branch.

The 27 SNPs in bold below are the additional SNPs found in his FGC results.


Event Names Location
12301 FGC12385 7881772-C-G
12302 FGC47872 2932610-T-C
12303 FGC50746 3435156-T-G
12304 FGC47873 3656400-A-G
12305 Y1632 FGC2072 4502698-G-A
12306 FGC7647 4502746-A-G
12307 FGC47875 5100589-G-A
12308 FGC47876 5175961-A-T
12309 FGC47877 5262000-C-G
12311 FGC47878 5925986-C-A
12312 FGC8760 6020743-G-A
12313 FGC47879 6028205-A-T
12314 FGC47880 6080192-C-T
12315 FGC47881 7347211-A-G
12316 FGC12384 7547230-C-T
12317 Y9080 7897468-T-C
12318 - 7900146-T-TA
12319 FGC12387 8194117-T-G
12320 FGC12388 8290583-T-C
12321 FGC12389 9795464-C-G
12322 FGC47886 9908330-G-T
12323 FGC47887 13214242-T-C
12324 FGC47888 13535122-A-G
12325 FGC12392 13713820-T-C
12326 FGC47889 13871171-G-A
12327 - 14495241-TG-T
12328 FGC12393 14497774-A-C
12329 - 15323666-A-C
12330 FGC12396 15878557-C-T
12331 FGC12397 15971853-G-A
12332 FGC47891 16039300-A-C
12333 FGC12398 16185253-G-A
12334 FGC12399 17003970-T-C
12335 FGC12400 17299391-C-T
12336 FGC47894 20408815-C-T
12337 FGC47895 21322858-G-A
12338 FGC47896 21789864-G-A
12339 FGC47897 21819191-T-A
12340 FGC47870 22486450-G-A
12341 FGC12406 23969601-G-A
12342 - 26701457-G-A
12343 FGC47901 27339935-G-T
12344 FGC47902 28433714-G-A

MitchellSince1893
07-30-2016, 09:44 PM
Update to post above. After further investigation SNP Y9080 has been moved from this branch to the one above as 268283 Roberts was also positive for it. This matches what Richard Rocca and Yfull also found.

So that's 42 SNPs shared by Alex Guess (YF06431) and my father (YF06577).

Also my father's FGC Y Elite results are now available on yfull and I anticipate version 4.07 of the Ytree will have dates for this branch. Both he and Alex Guess have 10 Novel SNPs each.

Using Yfull's own methodology I'm getting a date of 997 AD for Alex Guess FGC test (6 Novel SNPs in the CombBED region) and 852 AD using my father's FGC test (7 Novel SNPs in the CombBed region) for their most recent common ancestor. By comparison my father's BigY result (YF01489) with 4 Novel SNPs gives a date of 1217 AD using the same methodology.

Yfull ID-----Novel SNPs---Length coverage---Formula- -------------Corrected SNPs- TMRCA ybp-------Year of TMRCA
YF06577---7---------------8242420-------------7/8242420*8467165=10.27-------------1098 ybp-------- 852 AD
YF06431---6---------------8212004-------------6/8210004*8467165=10.31-------------953 ybp----------997 AD
YF01489---4----- ---------7269144-------------4/7269144*8467165=4.66---------------733 ybp---------1217 AD

MitchellSince1893
08-24-2016, 05:34 AM
The official Yfull dates for this branch released in version 4.07

R-FGC12384 (12 SNPs in this block): Formed 3400 ybp (formed confidence interval 95% 4400<-> 2500 ybp), TMRCA 978 ybp, rounded to 1000 ybp (TMRCA confidence interval 95% 600<->1500)

Individual Age Estimate using my FGC Y Elite YF06577 results
HAPLOGROUP: R-FGC12384
SELECTED SNPs: 8
KNOWN SNPs: 0
NOVEL SNPs: 8
UNROUNDED (YBP): 1247
ROUNDED AGE (YBP): 1250 (600-2400)
AGE BY ALL SAMPLES (YBP): 1000 (600-1500)


Individual Age Estimate using my BigY YF01489 results
HAPLOGROUP: R-FGC12384
SELECTED SNPs: 4
KNOWN SNPs: 0
NOVEL SNPs: 4
UNROUNDED (YBP): 733
ROUNDED AGE (YBP): 750 (275-1700)
AGE BY ALL SAMPLES (YBP): 1000 (600-1500)

Individual Age Estimate using YF06431 match's FGC Y Elite results
HAPLOGROUP: R-FGC12384
SELECTED SNPs: 6
KNOWN SNPs: 0
NOVEL SNPs: 6
UNROUNDED (YBP): 953
ROUNDED AGE (YBP): 950 (400-2000)
AGE BY ALL SAMPLES (YBP): 1000 (600-1500)

MitchellSince1893
09-30-2016, 03:40 AM
Thanks to the new FTDNA Z49 SNP pack test we just added a new member to the recently discovered R-FGC12384/R-FGC12385 SNP block/branch.

More details here. http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?3987-Help-me-to-solve-a-family-Mystery-My-paternal-line-before-my-great-grandfather&p=189851#post189851

MitchellSince1893
10-15-2016, 03:11 PM
FTDNA has updated their y-dna tree to include this branch. This update was per my request via email with justification.

12159

SNPs were also added to the FGC12401 branch one level up. These include FGC12403, FGC12405, Y9080 and FGC47900, which brings the FTDNA tree more in line with Alex Williamson's BigTree and Yfull's tree...see links below.

http://ytree.net/DisplayTree.php?blockID=1082&star=false
https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-Y9080/

I'm trying to get additional SNPs for the FGC12384/FGC12385 branch added to Z49 SNP Pack test.

SNPs requested include the following non indel high quality SNPs that are shown by Yfull, FGC, and Alex Williams' analysis to be confirmed in both FTNDA kit 86098's FGC test results and FTDNA kit#249822's BigY results. Yfull estimates these SNPs occurred between approximately 1000 BC and 1000 AD.


8194117-T-G FGC12387
8290583-T-C FGC12388
9795464-C-G FGC12389
13713820-T-C FGC12392
14497774-A-C FGC12393
15878557-C-T FGC12396
15971853-G-A FGC12397
16185253-G-A FGC12398
17003970-T-C FGC12399
17299391-C-T FGC12400
23969601-G-A FGC12406
9908330-G-T FGC47886
13871171-G-A FGC47889

If this isn't doable then I need to start the process of requesting creation of a R-Z142 SNP Pack, R-Z150/Z1222 SNP pack, or FGC12401 SNP Pack.

MitchellSince1893
12-11-2016, 12:09 AM
Just created a new blog for this y-dna branch.
http://mitchellsince1893.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-purpose-of-this-blog-is-to-document.html

MitchellSince1893
12-25-2016, 05:47 AM
Doing some statistical analysis I found a combination of four 25 marker STRs and five 37 marker STRs that appears useful in identifying potential members of this branch.

Among the 116 R-Z142+ members that tested at 25 or more markers, the following combination of STR values are only found in the 4 known R-FGC12384/FGC12385 branch members

DYS391=10
DYS389i=14
DYS389ii=30
DYS458=18 or 19

So at the Z142 level this combination is a good way to look for members that have tested 25 markers.

When I looked a 218 members of the R-Z49+ that have tested 25 or more markers using the above 4 STR combination, there is one sample that meets the criteria but cannot be on this branch as he is already located on a different Z49 branch.

Expanding to include a 37 marker STR, DYS575=15 or 16 eliminated this false positive.

Looking at the remainder of the FTDNA U152 project members identified no other matches with this 5 STR combo:
DYS391=10
DYS389i=14
DYS389ii=30
DYS458=18 or 19
DYS575=15 or 16

When I put this 5 STR combination into the R1b_Haplotypes spreadsheet, which contains 8443 members that have tested 67 or more markers, it got rid of over 99.9% of the matches, leaving only 7 out of 8443 samples. Of the seven, 4 were on other branches, leaving my sample and 2 other generic M269 matches.

So this STR combo appears to be a great way to filter out the vast majority of samples in order to identify potential members of this branch.

MitchellSince1893
01-05-2017, 06:47 AM
Unique 111 marker value for this branch compared to other members of R-Z49 that have tested 111 markers:

DYS710=39. No other R-Z49 known samples have this value.

MitchellSince1893
02-03-2017, 02:57 PM
New BigY order for this branch just placed. Currently 3 men have tested positive for this branch. 1 has taken both FGC Y Elite 2.1 and BigY (my dad), one has done FGC Y Elite 2.1 and Z49 SNP pack (Alex Guess), and the third has done Z49 SNP pack and just ordered BigY (surname Adamthwaite). Adamthwaite and Guess are more closely related to each other with a MRCA probably around 1600 AD based on 37 marker test and STR dating. BigY should better refine that date with SNP dating and ~60 more STR values.

MitchellSince1893
02-12-2017, 06:00 AM
A more comprehensive STR marker derived TMRCA estimate for the two tested samples in this branch is a few hundred years more recent than TMRCA via SNP dating method from Yfull.

I just completed some additional research looking at all the STR results for Guess (86068, YF06431), and Mitchell (249822, YF01489, YF06577) from their two 111 marker tests, one BigY test (Mitchell) and two FGC Y Elite tests.

On YFull's STR matching data tool there was 263 STRs compared between Mitchell's FGC test and Guess' FGC test of which 23 were different. Mitchell's BigY test and Guess' FGC test had 259 STRs compared, of which 23 were different (not the exact same 23 markers).

I cut and pasted this YFull data into a spreadsheet, and used the FTDNA 111 marker test results to fill in many blanks in the BigY and FGC test data.

This resulted in ~80 additional STRs (339 markers total) to compare between the two samples, with 29 being different.

I entered this data into the McDonald's TMRCA tool at http://clandonaldusa.org/index.php/tmrca-calculator
And got the following results using 0.0026 mutation rate.

Generations Probability for TMRCA
15 41.2%
16 54.7%
17 67.2%
18 77.7%
19 85.7%
20 91.3%
21 95.0%
22 97.3%

Using 30 years per generation there's a ~50% probability TMRCA lived no later than 1500 AD, and ~97% chance he lived no later than 1300 AD.

As stated earlier, this is more recent than the SNP dating method for TMRCA used by Yfull which is currently ~1000 AD (95% CI 450 AD to 1350 AD).

There is a small overlap between the STR and SNP dating methods (1300 to 1350 AD), so my best guess at the moment is TMRCA for this branch is 1325 AD.

The addition of the new BigY test sample (see post above this one) and his future 111 marker test will further refine this estimate.

MitchellSince1893
02-12-2017, 06:26 AM
FYI: SNPs FGC12384 and FGC12385 are now available at FTDNA as individual SNP tests for $39 each.

MitchellSince1893
03-10-2017, 03:04 AM
FYI: SNPs FGC12384 and FGC12385 are now available at FTDNA as individual SNP tests for $39 each.

We now have a 5th member of this branch...me (other 4 are my father, Alex Guess, and two men who are distant cousins to each other and descend from a William Adamthwaite who lived in the 1700s in Brough, Westmoreland, England).

I ordered the FTDNA FGC12384 single SNP test back in January. Test results just came out for it.

Now if I can just get my 111 marker test results (they had to retest them because first vial of saliva didn't work) I will join the U152 project.

MitchellSince1893
03-17-2017, 04:18 AM
New BigY order for this branch just placed. Currently 3 men have tested positive for this branch. 1 has taken both FGC Y Elite 2.1 and BigY (my dad), one has done FGC Y Elite 2.1 and Z49 SNP pack (Alex Guess), and the third has done Z49 SNP pack and just ordered BigY (surname Adamthwaite). Adamthwaite and Guess are more closely related to each other with a MRCA probably around 1600 AD based on 37 marker test and STR dating. BigY should better refine that date with SNP dating and ~60 more STR values.

147513 Adamthwaite BigY results are in. He shares two SNPs with our shared 86098 Guess match, that my father doesn't have, confirming these two men are on a separate branch from my father.

My guess is the new FGC12384, FGC12385 eta al. sub-branch containing 147513 and 86098 will be called "FGC47883 et al."

After reviewing data from:
1. My father's 111 marker, BigY, FGC test,
2. 86098's FGC test, 111 marker test family finder test
3. 147513 BigY test.
4. Adamthwaite/Guess family finder results
5. Genealogical data from Alex and the Adamthwaite gray line.

I currently believe the shared paternal line ancestor of 147513 and 86098 lived 6 to 7 generation before their earliest known ancestors, William Adamthwaite (born before 1750) and Joseph Guess (b ~1790); or around 1600 AD +/- 50 years (~12 generations from present).

Furthermore, I currently believe the shared paternal line ancestor of my father and the Adamthwaite-Guess line lived about 10 generations before this (22 generations from present), or about 1275 AD +/- 75 years.

Once we get 147513 STR results from his yfull analysis and from a future 111 marker test, I may be able to further refine this estimate.


How I came to these dates:

-147513 and 86098 have a family finder match, with a shared segment of about 12cM; and autosomal matches are usually no later than 1500 AD;
-147513 BigY results has 2 private SNPs (assume 176 years per BigY SNP mutation based on Yfull's formula, or ~350 years ybp/~1600 AD for the shared Guess/Adamthwaite MRCA
-Based on genealogical records the latest possible date for Guess and Adamthwaite line MRCA would have been born around 1720 AD.
-The Guess line (86098) is thought to have arrived in North Carolina from Virginia. Most immigration to Virginia Colony occurred from 1642 to 1675.
-Based on above, assume the Guess line came to America around 1660 AD give or take, while the Adamthwaite line remained in England. By this point the men of these two lines might have been brothers, 1st cousins, 2nd cousins, or maybe 3rd cousins, but it would be another 3 or 4 generations until with get to their respective earliest known paternal line ancestors mentioned above

MRCA for Guess-Adamthwaite line living 1600 AD +/- 50 years seemed reasonable based on the above


-My father and 86098's FGC full genome tests are giving the oldest dates on Yfull for our shared MRCA (1247 and 953 ybp). As the vast majority of tests in the Yfull database are BigY results, Yfull's dating method may work better for BigY results.
-My father's and Adamthwaite's BigY results both have 4 private SNPs since the split between my paternal line and the Adamthwaite/Guess line, and according to yfull it comes out to = between 704 and 733 ybp / 1217 and 1246 AD. (I calculated 147513's date on my own using Yfull's formula, but we will have to wait for the official Yfull date).
-The STR method using over 300 STRs shared between Guess and my father (post 19 above) said there was just over a 97% probability TMRCA was within the last 660 ybp (1290 AD) and over 90% chance it was within the last 600 years (1350 AD),

I just split the difference between the Yfull SNP method and the STR method, and said 1275 AD, +/- 75 years to cover the possibility of either.

MitchellSince1893
03-30-2017, 03:30 PM
...Now if I can just get my 111 marker test results (they had to retest them because first vial of saliva didn't work) I will join the U152 project.

111 marker test came in yesterday. Zero difference between my result and my father's 111 test.

MitchellSince1893
04-08-2017, 04:47 PM
... I just split the difference between the Yfull SNP method and the STR method, and said 1275 AD, +/- 75 years to cover the possibility of either.


Using McDonald's 94 STR dating technique discussed here http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/~mcdonald/genetics/u106-overview-2016.pdf


The 94 markers used give a mutation rate of =0.315+/-0.028 per generation, or once per 111+/-14 years

Gives a date 1284 AD with a range of 1200 to 1368 AD.

This is right in line with the what I previously got using the STR and SNP dating methods mentioned above (1275 AD with a range of 1200 to 1350 AD) increasing my confidence that this date is close to mark.

Just ordered a 111 marker test for the Adamthwaite sample, and submitted his BigY to Yfull for analysis.

JMcB
04-16-2017, 04:07 PM
A more comprehensive STR marker derived TMRCA estimate for the two tested samples in this branch is a few hundred years more recent than TMRCA via SNP dating method from Yfull.

I just completed some additional research looking at all the STR results for Guess (86068, YF06431), and Mitchell (249822, YF01489, YF06577) from their two 111 marker tests, one BigY test (Mitchell) and two FGC Y Elite tests.

On YFull's STR matching data tool there was 263 STRs compared between Mitchell's FGC test and Guess' FGC test of which 23 were different. Mitchell's BigY test and Guess' FGC test had 259 STRs compared, of which 23 were different (not the exact same 23 markers).

I cut and pasted this YFull data into a spreadsheet, and used the FTDNA 111 marker test results to fill in many blanks in the BigY and FGC test data.

This resulted in ~80 additional STRs (339 markers total) to compare between the two samples, with 29 being different.

I entered this data into the McDonald's TMRCA tool at http://clandonaldusa.org/index.php/tmrca-calculator
And got the following results using 0.0026 mutation rate.

Generations Probability for TMRCA
15 41.2%
16 54.7%
17 67.2%
18 77.7%
19 85.7%
20 91.3%
21 95.0%
22 97.3%

Using 30 years per generation there's a ~50% probability TMRCA lived no later than 1500 AD, and ~97% chance he lived no later than 1300 AD.

As stated earlier, this is more recent than the SNP dating method for TMRCA used by Yfull which is currently ~1000 AD (95% CI 450 AD to 1350 AD).

There is a small overlap between the STR and SNP dating methods (1300 to 1350 AD), so my best guess at the moment is TMRCA for this branch is 1325 AD.

The addition of the new BigY test sample (see post above this one) and his future 111 marker test will further refine this estimate.

Hello Mitchell,

I was wondering if I might ask you for your opinion concerning a question I've run into. A while back I got my BigY results and they showed that I had split the I-L234 branch and formed a new sub-branch right below it called I-Y7198 by FTDNA & Y3647 by Yfull. My I1-Z140 administrator who knows that I am an exact match with another Y7198 tester dates the branch to approximately 500 AD. YFull - who only has my sample - dates it to approximately 140 AD.

Since then a third exact match has come in, so we're forming a branch of three now. While talking to the most recent match I noticed that he is a 5 step match with me at 67 markers, while the first exact match is an 8 step match with the both of us.

So if I've done it correctly (?) my TMRCA with the 5 step match is approximately 1237 AD
And our TMRCA with the third fellow is approximately 967 AD

Now my question is this: how would that information alter - if at all - the TMRCA of our I-Y7198 branch estimates of either 500 AD or 140 AD.

Would that stay the same or would it move the branch TMRCA forward in time? And if the latter, how would I calculate that?

Thank you for your input.

PS I've been meaning to say this for a few weeks now, so I'll take the opportunity to say it now; I love then new design of you Mitchell shield. It's very nicely done!

MitchellSince1893
04-16-2017, 05:34 PM
Hello Mitchell,

I was wondering if I might ask you for your opinion concerning a question I've run into. A while back I got my BigY results and they showed that I had split the I-L234 branch and formed a new sub-branch right below it called I-Y7198 by FTDNA & Y3647 by Yfull. My I1-Z140 administrator who knows that I am an exact match with another Y7198 tester dates the branch to approximately 500 AD. YFull - who only has my sample - dates it to approximately 140 AD.

Since then a third exact match has come in, so we're forming a branch of three now. While talking to the most recent match I noticed that he is a 5 step match with me at 67 markers, while the first exact match is an 8 step match with the both of us.

So if I've done it correctly (?) my TMRCA with the 5 step match is approximately 1237 AD
And our TMRCA with the third fellow is approximately 967 AD

Now my question is this: how would that information alter - if at all - the TMRCA of our I-Y7198 branch estimates of either 500 AD or 140 AD.

Would that stay the same or would it move the branch TMRCA forward in time? And if the latter, how would I calculate that?

Thank you for your input.

PS I've been meaning to say this for a few weeks now, so I'll take the opportunity to say it now; I love then new design of you Mitchell shield. It's very nicely done!

Right now we don't have enough information. We need to know how many of your currently novel SNPs you share with your two matches.

On your sister branch I-L234 they give the formed age range 95%CI as 2600 to 1250 ybp or 650 BC to 700 AD. Odds are your branch formed in the same range. The question is how many SNPs do you share with your two other matches? Only BigY or FGC testing will answer that...unless you want to create a custom panel at yseq.net based on your BigY novel results and can get your matches to take this newly created test https://www.yseq.net/index.php?cPath=25&osCsid=458ccd7f26eb8c3380d0df342af6d8c8

Let's say you have 12 combBEd region novel SNPs and future testing reveals you share 6 of them with your 8 Step match and 8 of them with your 5 step match. This would allow us to better estimate when your branches/MRCA occur.

I guess by "shield" you are referring to my avatar? The North Carolina/South Carolina map with yellow counties? Thank you.

JMcB
04-16-2017, 07:15 PM
Right now we don't have enough information. We need to know how many of your currently novel SNPs you share with your two matches.

On your sister branch I-L234 they give the formed age range 95%CI as 2600 to 1250 ybp or 650 BC to 700 AD. Odds are your branch formed in the same range. The question is how many SNPs do you share with your these two other matches? Only BigY or FGC testing will answer that...unless you want to create a custom panel at yseq.net based on your BigY novel results and can get your matches to take this newly created test https://www.yseq.net/index.php?cPath=25&osCsid=458ccd7f26eb8c3380d0df342af6d8c8

Let's say you have 12 combBEd region novel SNPs and future testing reveals you share 6 of them with your 8 Step match and 8 of them with your 5 step match. This would allow us to better estimate when your branches/MRCA occur.

I guess by "shield" you are referring to my avatar? The North Carolina/South Carolina map with yellow counties? Thank you.

Hello Mitchell,

Yes, I did mean your avatar. If I remember correctly you were experimenting with different shields before.

Be that as it may, both of the matches in question are also exact BigY matches, too. With the first match, who is 8 STR steps from me, I share 17 novel variants. The second match, who is 5 steps from me, I share 14 novel variants. FTDNA says I have 25 novel variants.

This is only according to FTDNA. I'm the only one who has submitted my results to YFull. I also don't know how many of these are combBEd region matches.

MitchellSince1893
04-17-2017, 12:40 AM
...With the first match, who is 8 STR steps from me, I share 17 novel variants. The second match, who is 5 steps from me, I share 14 novel variants. FTDNA says I have 25 novel variants.

This is only according to FTDNA. I'm the only one who has submitted my results to YFull. I also don't know how many of these are combBEd region matches.

On Yfull, how many combBed region SNPs are novel only to you? i.e. how many SNPs Yfull lists under the novel+ section are not shared with either of your other matches?

Knowing this we can calculate a SNP date.

Yes I keep playing with different ideas on the shield/avatar thing. The ancestry.com new "genetic communities" feature placed my father in the "Settlers of Coastal Carolina" groups and this renewed my interest my non paternal line ancestry. North and South Carolina is 85% of my own non paternal ancestry going back 3-6 generations
15302

15304

JMcB
04-17-2017, 02:18 AM
On Yfull, how many combBed region SNPs are novel only to you? i.e. how many SNPs Yfull lists under the novel+ section are not shared with either of your other matches?

Knowing this we can calculate a SNP date.

Yes I keep playing with different ideas on the shield/avatar thing. The ancestry.com new "genetic communities" feature placed my father in the "Settlers of Coastal Carolina" groups and this renewed my interest my non paternal line ancestry. North and South Carolina is 85% of my own non paternal ancestry going back 3-6 generations
15302

15304

They have me as having 32 Novel SNPs with 17 being ambiguous or low quality. The other two haven't submitted their bam files to Yfull, so I just have their FTDNA stats. One shares 17 novel variants with me and the other one shares 14.

15305

I remember the first shield and really liked that one, too.

My 5th Great Grandfather came to South Carolina in 1772 and got one of the land grants they were giving out at the time. They lived in Abbeville County, which is just about where your crescent moon is.

MitchellSince1893
04-17-2017, 02:32 AM
They have me as having 32 Novel SNPs with 17 being ambiguous or low quality

15305

I remember the first shield and really liked that one, too.

Just so we are clear

Step 1.
On Yfull, Age estimation as seen in image below, how many Novel SNPs are shown. In my image 4 are shown.
15309


Step 2. How many of these SNPs in step 1 are not shared with match 1? How many are not shared with match 2? You may have to do some research via your FTDNA project or via BigY tool

Step 3, if known, how many novel SNPs (not shared with you or other match) does match 1 have? How many Novel SNPs does match 2 have (again SNPs not shared with anyone else?

JMcB
04-17-2017, 02:47 AM
Just so we are clear

Step 1.
On Yfull, Age estimation as seen in image below, how many Novel SNPs are shown. In my image 4 are shown.
15309


Step 2. How many of these SNPs in step 1 are not shared with match 1? How many are not shared with match 2? You may have to do some research via your FTDNA project or via BigY tool

Step 3, if known? How many novel SNPs (not shared with you or other match) does match 1 have? How many Novel SNPs does match 2 have (again SNPs not shared with anyone else?

Here's step one.

15310

Step 2, If I've done step two correctly going by the position numbers, none of the SNPs in Step one are found in either of my two matches.

Step 3, According to FTDNA match #1 has 21 novel variants that I don't have.
Match #2 has 18 novel variants that I don't have. And from what I can see they both share 2 Novel variants that I don't have.

Of course, that's assuming that I have done this correctly. Which may be a big assumption. ;-)

MitchellSince1893
04-17-2017, 04:06 AM
Here's step one.

15310

Step 2, If I've done step two correctly going by the position numbers, none of the SNPs in Step one are found in either of my two matches.

Step 3, According to FTDNA match #1 has 21 novel variants that I don't have.
Match #2 has 18 novel variants that I don't have. And from what I can see they both share 2 Novel variants that I don't have.

Of course, that's assuming that I have done this correctly. Which may be a big assumption. ;-)

Using the 10 Novel SNPs that you don't share with your two matches gives a date of 288 AD with a range of 78 AD to 556 AD. This is approximately when the 1st novel SNP mutation occurred in your branch. Meaning there could have been two brothers. One on your line and the other on your 2 matches's line. These brother probably didn't have any unique SNPs, but a few generations later the first novel SNPs would have occurred in both lines.

If you PM me the novel SNPs for your two matches, I can see which ones are in the combBed region and give you two more date estimates based on their SNPs. You could then take the average of the 3 samples.

JMcB
04-17-2017, 02:35 PM
Using the 10 Novel SNPs that you don't share with your two matches gives a date of 288 AD with a range of 78 AD to 556 AD. This is approximately when the 1st novel SNP mutation occurred in your branch. Meaning there could have been two brothers. One on your line and the other on your 2 matches's line. These brother probably didn't have any unique SNPs, but a few generations later the first novel SNPs would have occurred in both lines.

If you PM me the novel SNPs for your two matches, I can see which ones are in the combBed region and give you two more date estimates based on their SNPs. You could then take the average of the 3 samples.

Excellent! Thank you, Mitchell, I really appreciate it!

I'll try and gather that information and contact you in the near future.

MitchellSince1893
04-25-2017, 10:09 PM
3/5th's of the world's known population for haplogroup R-FGC12384 met today in person. My father and I met Alex Guess for lunch today. Nice to meet our closest known y-dna STR and SNP match.

It's an odd feeling meeting someone that you know has same y-dna line as you back in the 1200 to 1300s.

MitchellSince1893
05-03-2017, 06:59 PM
The 4th 111 marker result for this branch is now posted. Rather than going to the FTDNA project, a quicker way to seem them all is going here
https://www.familytreedna.com/public/adamthwaite?iframe=yresults


Orin Adamthwaite has a genetic distance of 4@111 markers with Alex Guess and GD=11@111 markers with me and my father.

A GD=4@111 markers according to FTDNA

A 107/111 match indicates a genealogical relationship. Most matches at this level are related as 10th or more recent cousins, and over half will be 6th or more recent cousins. This is well within the range of traditional genealogy. 50% chance 7 generations back 90% chance 11 generations back 95% chance 13 generations back 99% chance 16 generations back

I know it has to be at least 9 generations back based on genealogical records (early 1700s)


Using McDonald's 94 STR dating technique discussed here http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/~mcdonald/genetics/u106-overview-2016.pdf


Gives a date 1284 AD with a range of 1200 to 1368 AD. (When comparing Adamthwaite and Mitchell's 111 markers)

This is right in line with the what I previously got using the STR and SNP dating methods mentioned above (1275 AD with a range of 1200 to 1350 AD) increasing my confidence that this date is close to mark.

Using this same method on Adamthwaite's and Guess' 111 marker results gives a date of 1506 AD with a range 1450 to 1562 AD for their shared ancestor. This is a little older than my previous 1600 AD estimate.

While comparing Adamthwaite and Mitchell's 111 marker results give a date of 1062 AD with a range of 950 to 1174 AD. So about 200 years older than when comparing Guess and Mitchell's 111 marker differences.

Finally using the same technique above I compared the likely FGC12384 ancestral modal value differences to the Mitchell line and got 1395 AD with a range of 1325 to 1465 AD. That may be a little too recent.


The other interesting thing is that 111 marker DYS710=39 for all 4 tests. This is a rare value for this STR. In fact no other U152>L2>Z49 men have this value.

Only 4 out of the 630 111 marker test takers in the rest of the FTDNA U152 project (outside of FGC12384), have DYS710=39 (Two on other L2 branches and two in Z56 branches).

So definitely a great way to identify potential members of this branch.

MitchellSince1893
05-16-2017, 05:01 AM
Yfull Ytree version 5.04 is out which affects this branch.

Adamthwaite and Guess now form a new sub-clade under R-FGC12384 called R-FGC47884
https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-FGC12384/

The age estimate for FGC12384 has been updated. TMRCA for the Adamthwaite, Guess, and Mitchell lines is rounded to 900 ybp (1050 AD) with a range of 550 to 1350 ybp (600-1400 AD)
The 4 individual tests gave these dates
Guess FGC test: 953 ybp
Mitchell FGC test: 1247 ybp
Mitchell BigY test: 733 ybp
Adamthwaite BigY test: 698 ybp

TMRCA for FGC47844, Adamthwaite and Guess lines is rounded to 500 ybp (1450 AD) with a range of 225 to 1050 ybp. It was 379 ybp using the BigY Adamthwaite test and 656 years using the FGC Guess test which averaged to 517 years.

MitchellSince1893
06-19-2017, 06:01 PM
YFull has now posted the STR data for the Adamthwaite sample allowing me to get an updated TMRCA for Mitchell-Adamthwaite/Guess lines

Using YFUll STR data and FTDNA 111 markers I was able to compare 417 STRs between Adamthwaite and Mitchell results. There were 46 different values. Using this site http://dna.cfsna.net/HAP/MLE.htm

And the default settings gave 1250 AD +/- 200 years (1050 to 1460 AD).
Adamthwaite and Mitchell results via Yfull's dating method was 698 ybp or 1252 AD

So in the case the STR and SNP dating methods for these two individuals are very close. I will just go with 1250 AD

As for the TMRCA for Adamthwaite and Guess lines there were 319 STRs to compare with 24 different values
Using the default values gives a date of 1480 AD (1290 to 1670 AD)
Adamthwaite and Guess results via Yfull's dating method was 517 ybp or 1433 AD

Again not too much of a difference between the SNP and STR dating methods. 1460 AD will be a good mid point for dating this branch.

MitchellSince1893
10-28-2017, 07:38 PM
Hg19 and Hg 38 positions for SNPs on this branch

FGC12384 Hg19: 7547230 Hg38: 7679189
FGC12385 Hg19: 7881772 Hg38: 8013731
FGC12393 Hg19: 14497774 Hg38: 12385979

http://www.snpdata.com/

MitchellSince1893
01-10-2018, 02:16 AM
Until this week, I haven't had much to discuss on this thread or my mystery man thread https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?3987-Help-me-to-solve-a-family-Mystery-My-paternal-line-before-my-great-grandfather

However, over the weekend, I was doing some U152 project admin in the Z49 map section, and came across a kit I haven't seen before...because it's a National Geographic test transfer to FTDNA and doesn't have STR results (won't appear on the U152 Project STR results)

The last name of the kit, "Guest" caught my eye because my closest paternal line match has the surname "Guess" which in the past has often been spelled "Guest" "Gist" "Gest" and many other variations.

My match, Alex Guess, kit# 86098, is a member of the FGC12384/FGC12385 (name of this thread) branch; and member of the Gist and variants FTDNA project https://www.familytreedna.com/public/gistgestguessguest/default.aspx?section=yresults

He doesn't match any other members of the project and has been able to trace his line back to a Joseph Guess born 1783-1790 in Orange Co., NC. Many of the colonial American Guess/Guest online family trees go back to a George Guest (abt. 1638 - 1685) from Birmingham, Warwickshire who goes back to a John Geste (Guest) b 1515 in Birmingham.

So imagine my excitement when I found a Z49+ "Guest" from Warwickshire, England (Z49 is 2 branches down from U152 and 5 branches up from my current terminal SNP branch).
The other members are members of haplogroups I,R1a R1b-DF27, R1b-L21, and R1b-U106. No one else is known to be R1b-U152.


What are the odds of a random Englishman being Z49? 1.7% according to my calculations (6.9% of Englishmen being U152, and 25% of U152 in England being Z49)


What are the odds of a random Z49+ Englishmen being FGC12384 (my current terminal SNP branch)? 5% I have reached out to the owner of the kit but haven't heard anything back. Hope I do so we can order a FGC12384 SNP test.

Through some research, I'm pretty sure this Z49+ line goes back to a William Guest christened in 1801 in Birmingham, his mother is listed as Ann Guest. I think his father was a Thomas Guest who died in November 1800 as there are 3 other sons christened at the same church (1789, 1796, 1798) that have a William & Ann Guest as parents.

At the same church in 1787 a Thomas Guest (widower), married an Ann Rider in 1787. I'm thinking this Thomas Guest was born around 1756 +/- 10 years.

That's as far back as I've been able to get on this line, but if you look at this map you can the Guest surname is concentrated around Birmingham

20674

EDIT: I did find this about the Guest name in England

Guest was near Caen Normandy. This family settled in Salop (Shropshire) at the Conquest and held Lega (present day Leebotwood, Shropshire) from the De Dunstanvilles In 1150 Alan de D granted the lands of Alric de Lega to Wembridge Priory Eyton Salop ii 273 Thomas de Lega his son occurs 1180 314 Walter and Leonard his sons 1194 1230 Henry son of Leonard 1240 315 Roger de Lega or Guest brother of the latter had Thomas who gave lands to Wembridge Priory Eyton Salop ii 313 In 1295 Adam Gest was assessor of parliamentary aids in Salop PPW From this Norman race descended Bishop Guest one of the Reformers and the eminent manufacturer Sir John Guest


The first recorded spelling of the family name is shown to be that of Benwoldus Guest. This was dated 1100 in the Old English Names Register, during the reign of King William II of England, 1087 - 1100...

MitchellSince1893
01-12-2018, 05:06 AM
...So imagine my excitement when I found a Z49+ "Guest" from Warwickshire, England (Z49 is 2 branches down from U152 and 5 branches up from my current terminal SNP branch)

Sadly (for me at least), I've since learned that this Z49+ Guest individual is negative for the Z150 SNP. He would need to be positive to be on my Z49>Z142>Z150,Z12222>FGC12378>FGC12401>FGC12384 branch

So false alarm. Oh well :(

theImmortal
01-12-2018, 06:59 PM
Sadly (for me at least), I've since learned that this Z49+ Guest individual is negative for the Z150 SNP. He would need to be positive to be on my Z49>Z142>Z150,Z12222>FGC12378>FGC12401>FGC12384 branch

So false alarm. Oh well :(

Are individual SNP tests purchased through FTDNA more reliable than the result from Big Y or any SNP pack?

Your post doesn't say that it was a Z150 individual test, but I ask because my kit came back at Z49 from the SNP pack, but I didn't get a reading on Z49 when I did the Big Y.

Apparently it's an SNP that gets missed often. It's always made me wonder whether this causes people to think they've reached a dead end when a test comes back negative (and whether there are any floating subclades in L2 that are actually Z49+).

MitchellSince1893
01-12-2018, 10:42 PM
Are individual SNP tests purchased through FTDNA more reliable than the result from Big Y or any SNP pack?

Your post doesn't say that it was a Z150 individual test, but I ask because my kit came back at Z49 from the SNP pack, but I didn't get a reading on Z49 when I did the Big Y.

Apparently it's an SNP that gets missed often. It's always made me wonder whether this causes people to think they've reached a dead end when a test comes back negative (and whether there are any floating subclades in L2 that are actually Z49+).

The Z150 result is from a Nat Geo 2.0 test. I would be interested in hearing from others as to the reliability of SNP calls from this test. i.e. what are the odds the Z150- call is incorrect?

DillonResearcher
01-13-2018, 12:18 AM
The Z150 result is from a Nat Geo 2.0 test. I would be interested in hearing from others as to the reliability of SNP calls from this test. i.e. what are the odds the Z150- call is incorrect?

You could ask him to show you his original Nat Geo results, at FTDNA I think that you only see the positive SNPs tested by Nat Geo.

I have a bit of experience in looking at Nat Geo results and although I have not knowingly come across false negatives I have certainly seen a relatively small number of false positives, under close examination these false positives have been clear when looking at the original results though.

MitchellSince1893
01-13-2018, 01:05 AM
You could ask him to show you his original Nat Geo results, at FTDNA I think that you only see the positive SNPs tested by Nat Geo.

I have a bit of experience in looking at Nat Geo results and although I have not knowingly come across false negatives I have certainly seen a relatively small number of false positives, under close examination these false positives have been clear when looking at the original results though.
After trying two different methods, I've failed to make contact with him. Hopefully that will change. Thanks for the Nat Geo feedback.

theImmortal
01-13-2018, 08:51 PM
The Z150 result is from a Nat Geo 2.0 test. I would be interested in hearing from others as to the reliability of SNP calls from this test. i.e. what are the odds the Z150- call is incorrect?

What does his terminal haplogroup indicate? Perhaps I should have asked that first. Is it just Z49?

Is Nat Geo 2.0 full genome sequence? If so, and he has no other matches, then that would mean he's Z49*, right? Just trying to understand what you're looking at and whether this is an academic discussion at this point (not that there's anything wrong with that! *seinfeld voice*).

MitchellSince1893
01-13-2018, 09:10 PM
What does his terminal haplogroup indicate? Perhaps I should have asked that first. Is it just Z49?

Is Nat Geo 2.0 full genome sequence? If so, and he has no other matches, then that would mean he's Z49*, right? Just trying to understand what you're looking at and whether this is an academic discussion at this point (not that there's anything wrong with that! *seinfeld voice*).

Yes Z49 is shown in FTDNA as the most recent SNP he is positive for.

All I can see is a list of SNPs 338 he's positive for (e.g. U152, L2, Z49) and 28 he's negative for including Z150, Z51, L562 etc

MitchellSince1893
11-09-2018, 02:32 AM
I just had yseq.net create a "R1b-FGC12384 > FGC12386 Branch" panel test. Cost me $13.00. Should be ready in a month

I searched through my father's FTDNA BigY and FGC Y Elite test results at ytree.net, and yfull.com, to identify those SNPs that were high quality, detectable by both BigY and FGC Y Elite tests, and in the McDonald BED region and the combBED region.

These 14 SNPs met the criteria and are in the FGC12384>FGC12386 Panel test. They probably cover a timeframe from ~1000 BC to the present.
FGC12384 7679189
FGC12385 14073373
FGC12386 8305595
FGC12387 8326076
FGC12388 8422542
FGC12389 9957855
FGC12390 10025166
FGC12393 12385979
FGC12394 13017767
FGC12395 13495340
FGC12397 13859973
FGC12398 14073373
FGC12399 14892090
FGC12400 15187511

https://www.yseq.net/product_info.php?products_id=94398

MitchellSince1893
08-10-2019, 05:20 PM
My father's closet match's BigY 700 results came in today...surname Guess. Mr Guess had previously done the FGC Y Elite test and his results are on ytree and yfull. But he hadn't previously done BigY.

Comparing Guess's results to the Adamthwaite and Mitchell BigY500 results.


Adamthwaite Shared Variants: 412456
Mitchell Shared Variants: 420683

It will be interesting to see how the Mitchell Shared Variant number changes when my father's BigY 700 results come in.


FTDNA tree has not yet been updated with the Adamthwaite/Guess branch