MitchellSince1893
08-13-2016, 08:29 PM
A few years ago, FTDNA temporarily did something to change the results of the TiP function, resulting in much higher percentages...after a few weeks it reverted back to the old values.
The percentages are the probability that your match and you shared a common ancestor within the last 1-24 generations
Apparently something has recently changed in the last week, because the percentages are again higher.
A comparison of my closest match's New and Old values
Gen. New Old
1 0.01% 0.00%
2 0.19% 0.00%
3 1.01% 0.00%
4 3.06% 0.01%
5 6.79% 0.04%
6 12.33% 0.15%
7 19.47% 0.40%
8 27.77% 0.93%
9 36.68% 1.87%
10 45.70% 3.37%
11 54.36% 5.53%
12 62.34% 8.46%
13 69.46% 12.17%
14 75.61% 16.63%
15 80.80% 21.75%
16 85.09% 27.41%
17 88.55% 33.44%
18 91.31% 39.67%
19 93.46% 45.93%
20 95.13% 52.08%
21 96.41% 57.99%
22 97.37% 63.54%
23 98.09% 68.67%
24 98.62% 73.34%
So at 24 generations there was a 73.34% chance this match and me shared a common ancestor. Now it's changed to 98.62%. FYI: YFull estimates our shared ancestor lived 1000 years before present (1950 AD). Assuming 30 years per generation, that works out to 33 generations to the shared ancestor.
This unannounced change (I couldn't find an announcement) caused me to contact a new match that came in at 84% at 24 generations...or over 10% higher than my closest match's old results above, but 14% below the new value.
If I had been informed of the change I wouldn't have bothered to contact him.
The percentages are the probability that your match and you shared a common ancestor within the last 1-24 generations
Apparently something has recently changed in the last week, because the percentages are again higher.
A comparison of my closest match's New and Old values
Gen. New Old
1 0.01% 0.00%
2 0.19% 0.00%
3 1.01% 0.00%
4 3.06% 0.01%
5 6.79% 0.04%
6 12.33% 0.15%
7 19.47% 0.40%
8 27.77% 0.93%
9 36.68% 1.87%
10 45.70% 3.37%
11 54.36% 5.53%
12 62.34% 8.46%
13 69.46% 12.17%
14 75.61% 16.63%
15 80.80% 21.75%
16 85.09% 27.41%
17 88.55% 33.44%
18 91.31% 39.67%
19 93.46% 45.93%
20 95.13% 52.08%
21 96.41% 57.99%
22 97.37% 63.54%
23 98.09% 68.67%
24 98.62% 73.34%
So at 24 generations there was a 73.34% chance this match and me shared a common ancestor. Now it's changed to 98.62%. FYI: YFull estimates our shared ancestor lived 1000 years before present (1950 AD). Assuming 30 years per generation, that works out to 33 generations to the shared ancestor.
This unannounced change (I couldn't find an announcement) caused me to contact a new match that came in at 84% at 24 generations...or over 10% higher than my closest match's old results above, but 14% below the new value.
If I had been informed of the change I wouldn't have bothered to contact him.