PDA

View Full Version : Z253 (L21>DF13>Z253) includes Irish III & IV and Iberian



TigerMW
05-11-2013, 02:40 AM
Z253 is probably the most geographically spread subclade of L21. L226, the Irish III/Dalcassian marker is downstream but so is L1066, which is a superset of Irish IV/Continental people. This subclade is widely spread all the way to Switzerland. Also, we have parts of Z253, like DF73, that are clearly Iberian. If there is a subclade of L21 that elicits memories of the Milesian legend, this is it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%ADl_Esp%C3%A1ine

Here is the Z253 project.
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/R-Z253/

Dubhthach
05-11-2013, 10:48 AM
Well let alone the fact that Z253 was originally found in a 1000 genomes samples that had Iberian origin. I believe first two Z253+ were taken from a Mexican-American sample (origin LA) and the other was somewhere in south America.

However as an Irishman it would be nice if people didn't bring Míl into it. "Son's of Míl" is a nice poetic term but it's all just part of an 8th century process of synthesizing history.

mcg11
05-22-2013, 09:10 PM
I know that mark jost has estimated the TMrCA of Z253 as c. 3 to 4K BP. Does that make sense re: the distribution of Z253? My YSearch is z5hg3, I and one other entry are distinctly different haplotypes than the other entries. Using Klyosovs method and his 22 slow markers, of which I have 3, I would estimate my TMRCA as 12K + BP using his set of data. It is clear to me that a major bottleneck occurred and a recent report identifies a major disaster c. 10 to 12K BP. Thus, I am left with the question of how valuable is the modal concept in the face of a disaster when many haplotypes are terminated and only after a long period of time does the population build up begin with new, and later, STR values. It seems to me that the modal value is of little use in estimating SNP origin times when disasters/bottlenecks have occurred.

TigerMW
05-22-2013, 09:16 PM
I know that mark jost has estimated the TMrCA of Z253 as c. 3 to 4K BP. Does that make sense re: the distribution of Z253? My YSearch is z5hg3, I and one other entry are distinctly different haplotypes than the other entries. Using Klyosovs method and his 22 slow markers, of which I have 3, I would estimate my TMRCA as 12K + BP using his set of data. It is clear to me that a major bottleneck occurred and a recent report identifies a major disaster c. 10 to 12K BP. Thus, I am left with the question of how valuable is the modal concept in the face of a disaster when many haplotypes are terminated and only after a long period of time does the population build up begin with new, and later, STR values. It seems to me that the modal value is of little use in estimating SNP origin times when disasters/bottlenecks have occurred.

The TMRCA estimates from Mark J that you cite look consistent with other estimates he has done for SNPs upstream, like L21. They also look consistent with estimates for L21 by other people like Anatole Klyosov, Marko Heinilla, Tim Janzen, etc. We know Z253 can't be older than the L21 MRCA and the L21 MRCA can't be older than the P312 MRCA, etc.

This is not to say that there not major disasters 10-12K ybp. It just doesn't look like the Z253 MRCA was around back then, not even close. Please note my emphasis on "MRCA" rather than the actual birth date of the SNP.

If you have concerns about TMRCA estimates, STRs, methods, mutation rates etc. There is a thread already in place for that. Mark posts over there and I'm sure he'll respond.
http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?828-STR-Wars-GDs-TMRCA-estimates-Variance-Mutation-Rates-amp-SNP-counting

rms2
05-22-2013, 11:32 PM
The bottleneck argument has always struck me as a form of special pleading. When a haplogroup or clade looks younger than you want it to be, just whip out a bottleneck and problem solved! The haplotypes only look younger because almost everybody died, you see.

What gives the bottleneck argument its force is that such things are possible.

The problem with it is that, despite the fact that it can never be proven, the bottleneck is regarded as an argument ender: Oh, well, there was a bottleneck; of course the Cro-Magnons were R1b.

One argument I found compelling involves pointing out the relative variance of y haplogroup I versus R1b in Europe. If one uses the fudge factor with R1b, he has to use it on I, and the result is an age for I that strains credulity, something like 40k ybp or more, if I recall correctly.

Or was the big bottleneck selective, targeting R1b and leaving I alone?

mcg11
05-23-2013, 11:37 AM
The bottleneck argument has always struck me as a form of special pleading. When a haplogroup or clade looks younger than you want it to be, just whip out a bottleneck and problem solved! The haplotypes only look younger because almost everybody died, you see.

What gives the bottleneck argument its force is that such things are possible.

The problem with it is that, despite the fact that it can never be proven, the bottleneck is regarded as an argument ender: Oh, well, there was a bottleneck; of course the Cro-Magnons were R1b.

One argument I found compelling involves pointing out the relative variance of y haplogroup I versus R1b in Europe. If one uses the fudge factor with R1b, he has to use it on I, and the result is an age for I that strains credulity, something like 40k ybp or more, if I recall correctly.

Or was the big bottleneck selective, targeting R1b and leaving I alone?

I can't deny that the bottleneck appears to be a crutch. Further I is probably older than R1b and man has probably been in Europe 40K years or so. Also, wrt to MIke's comment I don't want to deviate from the subject: Z253. Either I assert something I can't support or I look for clues. One clue is using Klyosov's slow mutators method. There is simply no denying I have three slow mutators with two of them over the 67 STR mark; 388, 632 and 495. He is a controversial source but he does try to publish.

The other clue is the Iberian connection and what does that mean? If Iberia is the origin, what is the timeline to the Isles? Migrations have recently been discussed on rootsweb and Australian Aborigines are believed to have travelled a thousand miles or more in a matter of months. Prior to about 5 to 6k BC, Britain to Spain was a continuous land mass. Climactic conditions were improving about the time of the end of the last Ice age and game moved north as the food supply increased, followed by the hunter gatherers. There is evidence of man living in caves in England in this period of time. The question is who were they? Another claimant of older time periods for early R!b is Maliclavelli. Again, he doesn't follow the tide and is criticized severely for his proposals. I'm not so sure he is all wrong, some of his arguments make sense to me.

I reiterate that I am suspicious of the present time lines which appear to be accepted by you and Mike, more readily than I would expect. I am searching for other ways to date Z253. To do that we have to put R -L21 further back in time. Why does R - L21 appear as a source point for so many different sub-clades. I think that the word bottleneck is as good as any term in describing the events that occurred c. P312 and its major subclades.

TigerMW
05-23-2013, 01:15 PM
... Either I assert something I can't support or I look for clues. One clue is using Klyosov's slow mutators method. There is simply no denying I have three slow mutators with two of them over the 67 STR mark; 388, 632 and 495.
That's three out of 111 or two of 67. If you choose to focus only a couple of STRs that is tantamount to cherry picking the data to make the data fit the theory. Statistics, like TMRCA base estimates, are only useful for groups of data. They are just averages and not useful for applying down at the individual level or with very restricted data sets. Most scientists seek more data so that anomalies will wash out in the law of large numbers. That's seems like the more objective thing to do rather than look at smaller data sets.


The other clue is the Iberian connection and what does that mean? If Iberia is the origin, what is the timeline to the Isles? I haven't heard anyone propose that Z253 originated in the Iberia. Having some folks from a group spill over into Iberia and therefore connecting does not necessarily imply origination. I can only find six Z253+ people of Iberian descent. Four of them are from STR signature 253-2534-1211 so there does not look like a lot of diversity for Z253 there. Of the ones who can specify a region, they are from Northern Spain and a couple look to be Basques.
Meanwhile we have hundreds of Z253+ from the British Isles and find Z253+ scattered across the continent too.


Another claimant of older time periods for early R!b is Maliclavelli. You must believe in the evolutionary mutation rates for that to be possible and you must also explain how haplogroup I can be so much older, too old for the first modern men (the Cro-Magnons) of Europe. A good thread to dispute germ-line rates and support evolutionary rates is the "STR Wars" thread. That is not specific to Z253 so we should discuss that there. I'll start up a thread in R1b General on R1b "Paleolithic" so you can post on that there.


Again, he doesn't follow the tide and is criticized severely for his proposals. I'm not so sure he is all wrong, some of his arguments make sense to me. He is Rathna on this forum. He has his own thread "Rathna's assessment..." in R1b Early Subclades that gets into some of these topics. Please post over there on his theories. He is quite willing to converse on his themes.


Why does R - L21 appear as a source point for so many different sub-clades. I think that the word bottleneck is as good as any term in describing the events that occurred c. P312 and its major subclades. Bottlenecks don't make the Z253 MRCA older than the bottleneck, they just mean the SNP could have come earlier than the bottleneck, but you then have a tough time explaining why DF13 is only slightly older than Z253 and L21 only slightly older than DF13 and so on as the SNP Z253 could not have come before the SNP DF13.

There is no problem with the number of SNPs we are finding. Scientists have estimated there is a new SNP on the Y chromosome every 1.5 generations or so for every father-son transmission. They are happening all of the time! Speaking as the moderator, please let's move your STR and SNP discussions over to the "STR Wars" thread. Let's keep the generic Y chromosome topics on generic threads, like the "STR Wars" thread.

mooredan
05-31-2013, 06:06 AM
Hello, I'm new to the forum and thread. It seems appropriate that I post here first as I am Z253+ My kit is f169385 and I am a member of the L21+ and Z253+ projects. My STR is a bit unusual in L21+ as I have DYS426=13. However my closest match at 111 markers is a Mr. Walls (I'm 5 steps away) (he is kit f98649) (...and he's DYS426=12).

I have ordered some downstream testing of Z253 and I think that it's likely that I'll end up L1066+

On the contemporary side of things, I have traced my heredity back seven generations (to a Moore born in Pennsylvania in the mid 1700's). However there is some speculation that a Wallace shared some DNA with a Moore wife in the early 1800's. (this is a potential link to Mr. Walls, as Walls is a variant of Wallace).

But if we keep with the Moore side of things and depending upon what you want to believe (questionable sources), ancestor Moore was born in England in 1584.

Unfortunately, Mr. Walls heredity is only traceable a few generations.

I find the deep ancestry research equally as interesting as the genealogical research. Although the ancient side of things is relatively new to me. Hopefully we'll be able to meet in the middle.

hoxgi
05-31-2013, 02:21 PM
Dan, your off-modal STRs place you in variety 253-1121 in Mike's spreadsheet. Therefore I don't expect you to be L1066+, as at least one person in this variety, Rawlings 117152, has tested L1066- and Z2185- (L1066 is downstream from Z2185). Also, another person in 253-1121, Heffernan 219896, has tested Z2534- (Z2185 is downstream from Z2534). Therefore, assuming that this variety holds up, I expect that you will also be Z2534-, so I wouldn't test for L1066 yet.
253-1121 is interesting, as it is geographically diverse, with members from Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands, as well as the Isles. It also has some fairly high GDs; your GD to Heffernan is 17 at 67 markers and 24 at 111 markers. Yet the off-modal STR results are very consistent in those who are proven Z253+.
Within 253-1121, your closest matches at 67 markers are 6 to Vennemoe (Boen) 229805 and 7 to Longacre 6475 (both of whom are Scandinavian), and you also have a GD=6 to Larsson 278356, who matches the STR signature but hasn't tested for Z253. Do you have any known Scandinavian connection?
I've located Walls' results in the Wall Surname Project and he matches beautifully on all the off-modals for 253-1121 as well, so I'm confident he'll also be Z253+.

mooredan
05-31-2013, 08:22 PM
No known Scandinavian connection.

Walls has joined the Z253 project and has a Z253 test pending. His line peters out in just a few generations with the oldest (well-sourced) ancestor being born in North America.

I do have a close match on ancestry.com's service (it might be closer than Walls), with the Moore surname. Unfortunately I haven't found the connection, but his ancestor is from Ireland (b. 1830).

RobertCasey
06-02-2013, 02:34 PM
For those that are Z253+ yet Z2534- and L554-, there is a new SNP, PF825 that should be tested. PF825 already qualifies for the ISOGG haplotree and will be added to ISOGG haplotree in the near future (post from Greg H). I just completed a new analysis of this SNP and found around 130 67 marker testing candidates that could be tested for PF825. Around 40 % are McClures and 15 % are McCrackens. McLaren, Price, Carlisle, Hubbard, McClellan and McMahan have multiple submissions as well:

http://www.rcasey.net/DNA/R_L21/Analysis/R_L21_Analysis_PF825.html

http://www.rcasey.net/DNA/R_L21/DNAResults/PF825_20130531C.xls

TigerMW
06-03-2013, 05:00 AM
For those that are Z253+ yet Z2534- and L554-, there is a new SNP, PF825 that should be tested. PF825 already qualifies for the ISOGG haplotree and will be added to ISOGG haplotree in the near future (post from Greg H). I just completed a new analysis of this SNP and found around 130 67 marker testing candidates that could be tested for PF825. Around 40 % are McClures and 15 % are McCrackens. McLaren, Price, Carlisle, Hubbard, McClellan and McMahan have multiple submissions as well:

http://www.rcasey.net/DNA/R_L21/Analysis/R_L21_Analysis_PF825.html

http://www.rcasey.net/DNA/R_L21/DNAResults/PF825_20130531C.xls

Is this a peer to F4036?

hoxgi
06-03-2013, 11:53 AM
Is this a peer to F4036?

Based on David Reynolds' table of Geno 2.0 results, L4036 has been found in only one person so far, Morgan N85391 from the 253-1716-11 variety, who is Z2534-PF825-and has been negative in four others, two of whom are Z2534- L1308+, one of whom is Z2534- L1308- and one of whom is Z2534+ L1066+. A PF825+ person has not yet tested for L4036, so its current status and precise positioning are uncertain. I don't know why only a few of the Z253+ people who have tested with Geno 2.0 have results (either positive or negative) for PF4036; perhaps David could explain this seemingly high percentage of no-calls.

We have three PF825+ results, all in the expanding 253-1716-Mc variety. However we also have PF825- results from Morgan 253-1716-11, Manning N112446 263-1716-11B, Clark N1931 253-1716-P and Mangum 6874 253-1716-1308. So it is not yet clear whether PF825 will be confined to 253-1716-Mc or turn up in other Z2534- people, perhaps with a somewhat different STR signature. Apart from the 253-1716 groupings, the large Z2534- subclade is 253-1121; I'd encourage one or two people from this group to test for PF825.

TigerMW
06-03-2013, 01:27 PM
Based on David Reynolds' table of Geno 2.0 results, L4036 has been found in only one person so far, Morgan N85391...
Am I reading this wrong? I've got this is F4036, not L4036. When I go to this SNP report and search for N85391 I find F4036+.
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/morgan/default.aspx?section=ysnp

As far as potential public SNP status, am I summarizing it correctly that PF825 and L1308 are showing potential whereas F4036 is not yet?

hoxgi
06-03-2013, 09:00 PM
Am I reading this wrong? I've got this is F4036, not L4036. When I go to this SNP report and search for N85391 I find F4036+.
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/morgan/default.aspx?section=ysnp

As far as potential public SNP status, am I summarizing it correctly that PF825 and L1308 are showing potential whereas F4036 is not yet?

Sorry Mike - F4036 is correct; another late night posting effect :)

Yes, PF825 should appear on the next ISOGG Y-haplotree update, L1308 is close but still just falls short of the revised genetic diversity requirement for ISOGG listing. I'm still attempting to recruit potential L1308+ people to test whose results, if positive, would give us the necessary GD. We also haven't had a PF825+ person test for L1308 yet, but it is known that L1308 is not below PF825 and probably these two SNPs will be brothers with L554 and Z2534.

F4036 appears private at this early stage, as does PF1557, which has been found in one Geno 2.0 Z253+ kit, Dailey N112401, who has not tested for any STRs yet, or for SNPs not covered by Geno 2.0.

mooredan
06-13-2013, 04:12 AM
You called it, the test just came in and I'm Z2534- (well don't I feel foolish for ordering the downstream test prematurely).

I do have a L554 test ordered, but I suspect that I might be negative there too. ...any guesses as to where I might end up?

Wherever that is, I'll ensure Walls get tested there as well (for confirmation), but is that necessary?

Thanks,

Dan

hoxgi
06-13-2013, 10:13 AM
Dan, I think it's good that you've done confirmatory SNP testing, as we do at times run into problems with convergent STR results; also, your 253-1121 variety is somewhat geographically diverse, so confirmatory testing is important. However it does have a very consistent off-modal pattern, with ten shared off-modals in the first 67 markers and another five in the 68-111 panels.

I think Walls ideally should test for Z253 (although it's difficult to imagine a negative result), but not for any more downstream SNPs.

We also have had results on Hartmann 223531, who is Z253+ Z2534- PF825-. I think he is probably on the outskirts of 253-1121 as well, as he matches on 6 of the 10 off-modals as well as the above SNP pattern. His ancestry is Bavarian, so we can add Germany to the list of countries with representatives in 253-1121. He has a GD=18 to yourself at 67 markers, which probably is consistent with the age and diversity of this group.

So I would really like to see a member of this variety do more extensive SNP testing - Geno 2.0, WTY or even a full genome; there should be one or more SNPs below Z253 in this group. Any takers?

Greg H

Kopfjäger
06-15-2013, 01:10 AM
Hey Greg,

Did Mr. Roman ever join the Z253 Project?

mooredan
06-15-2013, 08:06 AM
Mr. Roman is a relatively close match to me GD=6 at 67 markers. I sent him an email a couple of days ago encouraging him to join the L21 project, test for Z253 and join the Z253 project. I have not received a reply.

Kopfjäger
06-15-2013, 01:06 PM
Maybe I can get one of my Swedish-speaking project members to send him an e-mail about joining.

hoxgi
06-15-2013, 02:02 PM
No, Mr Roman 278356 has not joined the Z253 Project or tested for Z253. He certainly fits the off-modal pattern for 253-1121 nicely, with the same 9 of 10 off-modals that Dan has.

Neal, I would really appreciate an approach to him on Swedish if that is possible. The other Swedish kit who I think is Z253+ and fits this variety is Longacre 6475, who has not joined the Z253 Project either.

The members of this variety who are confirmed Z253+ are as follows:
Carrucan 71421 Ireland
Heffernan 219896 Ireland
Rawlings 117152 England
Deady 218167 Ireland
Boen 229805 Norway
Moore 169385 zzz
Bermingham 110368 Ireland
Butler 190463 Ireland
Cursonwhit 29145 ? Netherlands
Campion N20431 Ireland
zzz 129839
Hartmann 223531 Germany

There is also a Player y8CE9C who fits the STRs and indicated that he had ordered a Z253 test, but has not replied to follow-up emails.

Mike has another 11 in his spreadsheet as members of this variety who have not tested for Z253 (including Walls, Roman and Longacre).

I've found a few more in Ysearch, but they haven't replied to my emails:
Cocks yBD87C
Dennison yJCYYU
Hammond yKHQXS
Daniels y8JB52
Hamilton yES6Z4
All match on at least 8 of the 10 off-modals in the first 67 markers, including 537=11 and 520=21, the two slowest off-modals which I presume make up the 1121 in the 253-1121 name.

Hopefully this group will turn out to have its own SNP in due course. The absence (so far) of members of Iberian and French descent is interesting for Z253, given the geographical spread of this variety.

Greg H

mooredan
06-15-2013, 02:42 PM
Walls 98649 has the Z253 test pending, expected results on 7/22/2013.

mooredan
06-22-2013, 03:19 AM
...

So I would really like to see a member of this variety do more extensive SNP testing - Geno 2.0, WTY or even a full genome; there should be one or more SNPs below Z253 in this group. Any takers?

Greg H

My Geno 2.0 test is on its way back to the lab.

Kopfjäger
06-23-2013, 02:38 AM
Hey Greg,

I just sent Mr. Roman an e-mail about Z253 testing. His most distant ancestor is from Orslosa, northeast of Gothenburg, and in Vastergotland province.


Neal

EDIT: I also e-mailed Mr. Longacre about testing for Z253, as I found his e-mail from February saying he was ready to order. He must have forgotten.

hoxgi
06-30-2013, 06:20 AM
My Geno 2.0 test is on its way back to the lab.

That's great news Dan. Hopefully an SNP applicable to your 253-1121 variety will turn up in your results.

I've summarized the Geno 2.0 results for Z253 below, based on David Reynolds' table.

PF825.2 was found to be under Z253 by Geno 2.0 tests and has now been added to the ISOGG tree. There are now five PF825+ results in the 253-1716-Mc variety in Mike's spreadsheet, so PF825 appears to be a reliable marker for this group.

The other "new" SNPs under Z253 found in Geno 2.0 have not been particularly helpful. Testing for F4036 appears to have been stopped by FTDNA after one positive result. L430 also has only one positive result and apparently is located in an unstable region of the Y-chromosome. PF1557 has one positive result and quite a few negative ones, and the only Z253+ PF1557+ person has not yet done any STR testing.

Hiowever one useful SNP from four isn't that bad.

GregH

hoxgi
06-30-2013, 06:29 AM
Thanks again Neal for all your assistance.

This 253-1121 group is Z2534-. The other large Z253+ variety which is Z2534- is 253-1716 and its various subgroups, most of which have tested for Z2534, all with negative results.

There are five other Z253+ varieties in Mike's spreadsheet which have not yet tested for Z2534; these are:

253-1410
253-2310
253-9828
253-1130 (Z2534 test in progress)
253-5689 (Z2534 test in progress)

Excluding the above groups and the L554+, PF825+ and L1308+ groups, the rest of Z253 is Z2534+. So Z2534 splits Z253 into two large groups. Anyone who is Z253+ and not a member of a variety which has already tested for Z2534 should certainly do so.

Kopfjäger
07-02-2013, 03:03 AM
No problem, Greg. Did you try contacting the administrators for the Swedish DNA Project to get a hold of Roman? I was thinking of going that route next.

mooredan
07-02-2013, 04:13 AM
This 253-1121 group is Z2534-.


Is it safe to say the 253-1121 is PF825- as well? Maybe better to ask, has anyone from this group tested for PF825? ...if so, what were the results? (unfortunately, libreoffice on my mac has a hard time with Mike's spreadsheet :( )

hoxgi
07-02-2013, 08:54 AM
Dan, that's a good question.

Most of the people in 253-1121 match on at least 8 of the 10 off-modals for this variety and none of them have tested for PF825. There are a couple of people who seem to me to be towards the fringes of this group, one of whom is Hartman 223531, who has tested PF825-. Mike has him as unassigned in the spreadsheet, but he shares 5-6 off-modals with 253-1121 and also shares some with the PF825+ people, so I think his PF825- result is indicative that PF825 may be limited to the one group (253-1716-Mc) - which has theb only six PF825+ results so far.

In any case, PF825 is part of the Geno 2.0 test, so your results will be helpful, as you're a "classic" 253-1121 person on your off-modal STRs.

BTW, Walls 98649 has just tested Z253+ as well. Thanks for recruiting him.

GregH

mooredan
07-03-2013, 04:31 AM
Yes, I suspect that I'll be PF825- and I do see that the test part of the Geno 2.0 test.

My L554, Z2185 and L1066 tests were part of the same batch as Walls' Z253 test -- mine all came in negative. With he and I being GD=5 at 111 markers, I suspect that we'll fall inline all the way with SNP testing. (if we ignore my oddball DYS426=13, then we're GD=4 at 111!) Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find any common ancestor. He actually matches better with another Moore at ancestry.com, but again no common ancestor can be found with him or me.

Got confirmation that the Geno 2.0 test was received today, so I'm back in wait mode to see what turns up (or doesn't).

Also, I got a reply from Mr. Roman today, so there's life at the other end of the email. He may be interested in further testing, but wants to take some time educating himself more -- this business has been a low priority, especially with the short summers in Scandinavia.

TigerMW
07-11-2013, 05:04 PM
L554 sits right underneath Z253 parallel to Z2534, the big subclade of Z253.

L554 does appear to be quite old, even if it is not numerous.


A few days ago a fourth L554+ result was obtained, this time for Wilcox 246229.
He now joins Brown, Perry and Pike as the only known L554+ surnames.

Brown, Perry and Pike have 67-marker GDs of at most 10 between them.

However, the 67-marker GD from Wilcox to Brown, Perry and Pike is, respectively,
25, 24 and 22. This implies that there is previously unseen diversity within the L554 subclade of Z253 and in turn implies that L554 arose much earlier than was previously estimated.

As for a possible STR-based signature for L554, the following off-modal markers are exhibited by all four L554+ results:

DYS 390: 25 [modal for L21 is 24]
DYS 460: 10 [modal for L21 is 11]
DYS 487: 14 [modal for L21 is 13]
DYS 534: 16 or 17 [modal for L21 is 15]

This potential signature is shared by some M222+ people in Mike Walsh's L21 spreadsheet. However, at a first glance, there are also some people with this profile but who don't seem to have yet had their terminal SNP determined. http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/R1b-L21-Project/message/16635

mooredan
08-02-2013, 03:56 AM
Results for my Geno 2.0 test are now back and I have transferred the results to FTDNA. NatGeo indicates that I'm Z253 but there's a whole bunch of other SNP tests that I'm not familiar with or recognize. Maybe someone else can make sense of it?

mooredan
08-06-2013, 07:52 PM
I now have the raw data from the genographic test available now. Who should I send it to for further analysis?

RobertCasey
08-06-2013, 09:39 PM
Results for my Geno 2.0 test are now back and I have transferred the results to FTDNA. NatGeo indicates that I'm Z253 but there's a whole bunch of other SNP tests that I'm not familiar with or recognize. Maybe someone else can make sense of it?
Send your raw data file to David Reynolds to determine if there are any new novel SNPs in your test. He will also, summarize the key SNPs in your test results. Here is a link for further information (applies only to L21 SNPs):

http://daver.info/geno/

mooredan
08-09-2013, 02:49 PM
Thanks to David Reynolds for analyzing the data and updating the Z253 summary table that he maintains:

http://daver.info/geno/results/R-Z253.pdf

Nothing new or surprising, my terminal SNP is still Z253


However, on another front we may have another 253-1121 candidate joining the L21 and Z253 FTDNA projects. This person (another Moore) with a GD=4 at 67 markers to me. I have traced my paternal heredity reliably back seven generations and mapped out his descendants as well as I have been able. There doesn't appear to be a recent connection.

MJost
08-09-2013, 04:30 PM
However, on another front we may have another 253-1121 candidate joining the L21 and Z253 FTDNA projects. This person (another Moore) with a GD=4 at 67 markers to me. I have traced my paternal heredity reliably back seven generations and mapped out his descendants as well as I have been able. There doesn't appear to be a recent connection.[/QUOTE]

Could you please tell me you and the GD4 Moore's kit numbers ?

MJost

MJost
09-25-2013, 05:08 PM
There was a discussion on another thread about subclades and their geographical locations so I wanted to present some variances and ages for Z253.

It appears that Scotland, Sweden and Denmark z253 Hts have the highest variance with a 9.60, next best is all of Scotland at 9.31. The modal age is around 1k BC for this subclade and sure looks like it was spawned and based in Scotland. Same results for subclade DF13>Z253>Z2534 in Scotland where it has the largest amount of variance with about the same age as it parent Z253. One major subclade, Z253>Z2534>L226+ is solidly found in Ireland, as we know.

Using 67 markers Bird's Stable STRs

DF13 All N=2335 Modal Ybp = 4,146.1

DF13 Top tier subclades (to reduce variance swamping of the most recent subclades see end of post for selected details)
n=653 8.80 / 2,788.27 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 3,049.66


Interclade DF13 Top tier subclades and Z253 All
N=653 and n=284
Interclade Modal Founder's for Z253 All:
Modal Ybp = 3,002.4


Z253 All
n=284 8.56 / 2,710.96 = Var/Coal.
Modal Ybp =3,176.72

Scotland, Sweden and Denmark n=29 9.60 / 3,041.99 = Var/Coal.
Scotland n=27 9.31 / 2,948.79 = Var/Coal.
England, Scotland, Sweden and Denmark n=58 9.28 / 2,939.07= Var/Coal.
Sweden and Denmark n=2 var: 9.0
Eng, South West 8.96 / 2,838.35= Var/Coal.
ENG n=29 8.70 / 2,754.97= Var/Coal.
Ire n=134 8.26 / 2,616.66 = Var/Coal.
Ireland, Ulster n=18 var: 8.04
Ireland, Leinster n=18 var: 6.28
Ireland, Munster n=39 var: 7.29
Ireland, Connacht n=11 var: 7.45
Spain n=4 var: 7.81
Fra n=4 Var: 6.0
Norway n=3 var: 5.56


DF13>Z253>Z2534 All
n= 188 6.70 / 2,123.82 = Var/Coal.
Modal Ybp = 2,377.53
Sco n=16 9.34 / 2,958.67 = Var/Coal.
Eng n=20 7.72 / 2,444.75 = Var/Coal.
Spain n=3 6.89 / 2,182.26 = Var/Coal.
Ire n=91 5.83 / 1,846.44 = Var/Coal.


Z253>Z2534>Z2185*
n=5 8.24 / 2,610.27 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 3,801.36

Z253>Z2534>Z2185>L1066.1 All
n=43 8.37 / 2,651.08 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 3,116.23
Sco n=6 9.58 / 3,035.81 = Var/Coal.
Eng n=6 8.03 / 2,543.04 = Var/Coal.
Ire n=22 7.43 / 2,352.94 = Var/Coal.


Z253>L554+ (W. Isles)
n=5 5.28 / 1,672.60 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 2,977.73

Z253>PF825.2+ (W. Isles)
n=7 3.06 / 969.73 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 1,221.87

Z253>Z2534>L226+
n=119 3.61 / 1,143.06 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 1,213.88
Ire n=68 3.69 / 1,167.65 = Var/Coal.
Eng n=6 3.56 / 1,126.33 = Var/Coal
Sco n=2 0.75 / 237.58 = Var/Coal.



Z253>Z2534>L643+
n=5 2.48 / 785.61 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 1,203.76

Z253>L1308+
n=3 0.22 / 70.40 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 105.59

Z253>Z2534>DF73+
n=2 5.25 / 1,663.09 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = NA

Interclade DF13's Top tier Subclades selected:


R1b-P312>L21>DF13*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>CTS2457.2+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>CTS3386+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>L130+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>L1336+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>L1336+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>L720+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>P314.2*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>S424*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>Z246*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>Z246>DF25*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF41**
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF41>L563+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF41>L744*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF49*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF49>DF23*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L1335*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L1335>L1065**
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L144.2+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L371+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>CTS3087+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>L193.1+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>L193.1+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>L577+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>L69.5*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>L706.2*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L679+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L96+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z251**
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z251>L555+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z251>L583+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>L1308+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>L554+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>PF825.2+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534**
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534>DF73+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534>L226+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534>L643+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534>Z2185*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z255
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z255>L159.2+

MJost

Webb
09-25-2013, 05:54 PM
There was a discussion on another thread about subclades and their geographical locations so I wanted to present some variances and ages for Z253.

It appears that Scotland, Sweden and Denmark z253 Hts have the highest variance with a 9.60, next best is all of Scotland at 9.31. The modal age is around 1k BC for this subclade and sure looks like it was spawned and based in Scotland. Same results for subclade DF13>Z253>Z2534 in Scotland where it has the largest amount of variance with about the same age as it parent Z253. One major subclade, Z253>Z2534>L226+ is solidly found in Ireland, as we know.

Using 67 markers Bird's Stable STRs

DF13 All N=2335 Modal Ybp = 4,146.1

DF13 Top tier subclades (to reduce variance swamping of the most recent subclades see end of post for selected details)
n=653 8.80 / 2,788.27 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 3,049.66


Interclade DF13 Top tier subclades and Z253 All
N=653 and n=284
Interclade Modal Founder's for Z253 All:
Modal Ybp = 3,002.4


Z253 All
n=284 8.56 / 2,710.96 = Var/Coal.
Modal Ybp =3,176.72

Scotland, Sweden and Denmark n=29 9.60 / 3,041.99 = Var/Coal.
Scotland n=27 9.31 / 2,948.79 = Var/Coal.
England, Scotland, Sweden and Denmark n=58 9.28 / 2,939.07= Var/Coal.
Sweden and Denmark n=2 var: 9.0
Eng, South West 8.96 / 2,838.35= Var/Coal.
ENG n=29 8.70 / 2,754.97= Var/Coal.
Ire n=134 8.26 / 2,616.66 = Var/Coal.
Ireland, Ulster n=18 var: 8.04
Ireland, Leinster n=18 var: 6.28
Ireland, Munster n=39 var: 7.29
Ireland, Connacht n=11 var: 7.45
Spain n=4 var: 7.81
Fra n=4 Var: 6.0
Norway n=3 var: 5.56


DF13>Z253>Z2534 All
n= 188 6.70 / 2,123.82 = Var/Coal.
Modal Ybp = 2,377.53
Sco n=16 9.34 / 2,958.67 = Var/Coal.
Eng n=20 7.72 / 2,444.75 = Var/Coal.
Spain n=3 6.89 / 2,182.26 = Var/Coal.
Ire n=91 5.83 / 1,846.44 = Var/Coal.


Z253>Z2534>Z2185*
n=5 8.24 / 2,610.27 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 3,801.36

Z253>Z2534>Z2185>L1066.1 All
n=43 8.37 / 2,651.08 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 3,116.23
Sco n=6 9.58 / 3,035.81 = Var/Coal.
Eng n=6 8.03 / 2,543.04 = Var/Coal.
Ire n=22 7.43 / 2,352.94 = Var/Coal.


Z253>L554+ (W. Isles)
n=5 5.28 / 1,672.60 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 2,977.73

Z253>PF825.2+ (W. Isles)
n=7 3.06 / 969.73 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 1,221.87

Z253>Z2534>L226+
n=119 3.61 / 1,143.06 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 1,213.88
Ire n=68 3.69 / 1,167.65 = Var/Coal.
Eng n=6 3.56 / 1,126.33 = Var/Coal
Sco n=2 0.75 / 237.58 = Var/Coal.



Z253>Z2534>L643+
n=5 2.48 / 785.61 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 1,203.76

Z253>L1308+
n=3 0.22 / 70.40 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = 105.59

Z253>Z2534>DF73+
n=2 5.25 / 1,663.09 = Var/Coal. Ybp Age (n-1)
Modal Ybp = NA

Interclade DF13's Top tier Subclades selected:


R1b-P312>L21>DF13*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>CTS2457.2+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>CTS3386+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>L130+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>L1336+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>L1336+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>L720+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>P314.2*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>S424*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>Z246*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF21>Z246>DF25*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF41**
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF41>L563+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF41>L744*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF49*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>DF49>DF23*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L1335*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L1335>L1065**
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L144.2+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L371+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>CTS3087+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>L193.1+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>L193.1+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>L577+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>L69.5*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L513>L706.2*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L679+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>L96+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z251**
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z251>L555+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z251>L583+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>L1308+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>L554+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>PF825.2+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534**
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534>DF73+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534>L226+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534>L643+
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534>Z2185*
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z255
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z255>L159.2+

MJost

How do these age configurations compare to the variety of Z2534 found amongst the basque? How did it ever find its way there?

MJost
09-25-2013, 07:27 PM
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534>Z2185's seem to have a straight and quick set of mutations from its founder within a short time. So that begs your question to be answered. What was occurring around 1K to 100 BC that would have sent Scots to Spain. The three Spain guys have a most recent common ancestors at around 2,182 yrs before present which could be the time the migration happened for one man from the Isles.

MJost

Webb
09-26-2013, 01:25 AM
R1b-P312>L21>DF13>Z253>Z2534>Z2185's seem to have a straight and quick set of mutations from its founder within a short time. So that begs your question to be answered. What was occurring around 1K to 100 BC that would have sent Scots to Spain. The three Spain guys have a most recent common ancestors at around 2,182 yrs before present which could be the time the migration happened for one man from the Isles.

MJost

While that is the most likely scenario, I can't help wondering if Sweden and Denmark are the key to this movement. I noticed that Z2534 is older in Spain than Ireland. I know it's pretty useless to find a common denominator between history and genetics, but to even see that the variance is high in Denmark and Sweden, quite possibly before the first century B.C., is intriguing.

David
09-29-2013, 01:24 AM
DF73 has met ISOGG requirements and is being added to the Hg R tree under R-Z2534.
R1b1a2a1a2c1f2d DF73

Regards,
david

miiser
06-09-2014, 01:05 AM
MJost

I hold you in the highest regard among the posters on the genetic genealogy boards, so I am hesitant to post this. But I have been thinking about these variance numbers for the past few days, and I think there may be a problem with utilizing variance to estimate the age of a haplogroup subset in this manner, with data subsets selected based on reported origin. For example, I think the greater variance of Z253 and L1066 from Scotland is probably just noise due to the small sample size.

I've attached an illustration to explain the problem with calculating the variance of an arbitrary data subset in this way.

1951

The problem, basically, is that these variance based age estimates assume a single central MRCA for each of the geographic data subsets you've defined. In general, the correlation between age and variance is based on the assumption that the alleles radiate outward from a single central MRCA, so that you end up with a bell curve sort of distribution around the MRCA mode. The deviation of this bell curve from the mode gives an indication of how old the group is.

This would be a good approach if we had no information regarding phylogenic relationships between members of these haplogroups. But in fact we do have information about phylogenic relationships, based on SNP testing and STR HT clusters. So assuming a single MRCA for each of these data subsets will give misleading variance numbers.

What this method does, in effect, is answer the question, "If all the Scottish individuals descend from a single Scottish MRCA, and all the Irish individuals descend from a single Irish MRCA, and all the English individuals descend from a single English MRCA, etc., how old would each of those MRCAs be?"

But we already know that the members of these geographic data subsets don't all descend from a single MRCA of the corresponding region, so the answer to this question is not a meaningful answer.

For example, some of the Scottish Z253 kits are known to be L1066. So we know these samples descend from a L1066 MRCA, with their closest cousins being Irish, not the Scottish non L1066 individuals. In other words, we can't clump all the Scottish samples together and calculate variance as a single group, assuming that they descend from a single Scottish MRCA that predates the origin of L1066. Including non L1066 samples along with the L1066 Scottish data set creates an arbitrary data subset with a meaningless variance calculation.

Hypothetically, suppose the greater variance of Z253 Scottish data set was indicative of a single old Scottish MRCA, predating an Irish MRCA (or more likely multiple Irish MRCAs) whose descendants exhibit less variance. In this case the high variance Scottish data points, which are furthest from the MRCA at the center of the plot due to having more time to mutate, should not be closely related to the younger Irish clusters. The Scottish haplotypes should be more isolated, branching out early before the younger Irish groups, all descending from the single old Scottish MRCA.

But, in fact, most of these Scottish data points descend from the more recent intermediate MRCA of a subclade, who may well have been Irish. The greater variance of the Scottish data subset would be indicative of an older MRCA origin ONLY if those Scottish data points had branched off from the tree early on. But in fact, we know that some of them descend from younger branches alongside of their Irish siblings and cousins. In other words, greater deviation in a data point may be indicative of an older branch splitting off nearer to the MRCA center, UNLESS we already know (based on SNPs or STR signature) that the sample branched off from a younger subgroup. For many of these non Irish data points, we do in fact know that they are not an old branch, but are in fact a newer branch descending from a younger, mostly Irish group.

Based on what we already know about the phylogenic relationships within Z253, and the position of the non Irish members within the tree, I think over time as we gain more samples from the small data subsets such as Scotland, Scandinavia, etc., the variance of those subsets will decline to be in line with Ireland, and probably eventually be a little less than Ireland.

Please let me know what you think.

MJost
06-09-2014, 03:52 AM
Miiser,

Your complement is terribly troubling to me as I state that I am just an amateur here. But sheepishly, I say thank you.

Yes you have to be very certain you are working with haplotypes that are within the same Haplogroup. The number of Hts are important as well. You are correct in considering the base of Hts for use in a geographic setting. Outlier Hts that have odd extended allele values need to be removed. Doug McDonald using IAM allele values for just this reason, I believe. But variance and mutation rates of selected STRs are key as well. Generation age is calculated from the standard deviation of variance to provide the most probable age range using an un biased or biased population. The former is a sample (n-1) statistical usage and accounts for unknown Hts. Confidence level is also considered. But the law of numbers quickly matches the results from a sampled (n-1) and a known population (n). Larger set of Hts that are more recent tend to swamp the entire TMRCA producing a younger age. Interclade variance produces a different result which tends to produce a high end of the younger clade when comparing your example. My previous table was a quick and dirty run. You may use my spreadsheet to run any set of HTs you wish to see what you can come up with.

MJost

miiser
06-09-2014, 07:02 AM
MJost,

If you are an amateur, than you are an amateur among sub-amateurs. I'm an engineer by training and I do a good deal of pure science for fun. I've been following the forums for a long time, and from what I can tell you understand the statistics a lot better than most.

I think I understand all the factors you mention that can affect variance based age estimates. My concern was not so much whether the statistics were done correctly, but whether the output of the statistics could be taken at face value in light of specific information for many of the individual data points.

Statistics are useful when you have a number of data samples, but no specific information about individual data points. But when you have specific information about single data points, the specific data trumps the statistical data. In the case of Z253, we do have specific information about many of the samples, in the form of relationships defined by SNPs and STR HTs. Many of the Scottish samples in Z253 are most closely related to Irish data samples within younger subclades, as is evident from SNPs and STR HTs. It is clear from the phylogeny that some of these Scottish samples, surrounded to the sides and above by Irish data points, descend from a younger MRCA of their subclade that is probably Irish. So is it valid to use those data points to measure the variance of a hypothetical Scottish base MRCA? For the Scottish data points that belong to those younger subclades, we know that their age to the shared MRCA must be equal to that of their Irish siblings. Wouldn't the deviation of such data points be a reflection of the intermediate Irish MRCA's age, rather than a measure of the hypothetical Scottish base MRCA's age?

I don't have visibility of your data selection, so maybe you've already taken this into consideration. And I'm not yet sure what other method I would use instead.

I hate it when people drive an argument into the ground, so I'll just let this discussion end here and not do that.

Thanks for the spreadsheet. I'll spend some time getting familiar with it and see if I can find a way to select HTs in a way that makes sense to me.

mcg11
06-09-2014, 02:06 PM
I think the concept of this discussion bothers me. I am a Physicist by training and I also believe you can only do so much with statistics.


I, Billingsley and maybe Sammons have old L 1066 haplotypes. I am a McGregor by birth, but I am not a genetic MacGregor, descended from the Clan Founder c. 1450 or so. I know my earliest ancestor was born in Scotland, c. 1650 AD. My family has lived in Canada and the US since then. This is my personal background.

Your argument seems to be that Z253 began in Ireland? I could argue that it began in Scotland, but why argue? In the long view it doesn't make any difference really? When two places are only separated,now, by some 10 to 15 miles of Sea; it seems very probable that its been back and forth since the Ice left?

miiser
06-09-2014, 06:01 PM
I do not argue for or against any origin of Z253, but simply question whether the variance numbers have any real meaning in this case.

Your comment troubles me, in that you seem to regularly take pleasure in diverting discussions away from the main point with insincere comments. I can't imagine why anyone would do that, unless to deliberately derail a truthful, honest discussion for the sake of a personal agenda. From now on I'm just going to follow the standard advice to not feed the trolls.

AncientCelt
06-09-2014, 09:01 PM
I think the concept of this discussion bothers me. I am a Physicist by training and I also believe you can only do so much with statistics.


I, Billingsley and maybe Sammons have old L 1066 haplotypes. I am a McGregor by birth, but I am not a genetic MacGregor, descended from the Clan Founder c. 1450 or so. I know my earliest ancestor was born in Scotland, c. 1650 AD. My family has lived in Canada and the US since then. This is my personal background.

Your argument seems to be that Z253 began in Ireland? I could argue that it began in Scotland, but why argue? In the long view it doesn't make any difference really? When two places are only separated,now, by some 10 to 15 miles of Sea; it seems very probable that its been back and forth since the Ice left?

The evidence at this point now supports and Irish origin for Z253, but that's not to say it won't change as more results continue to come in. However, if the trend continues, it will remain as apparently Irish in origin, it is what it is. I was one of those that was skewing the numbers toward Scotland but since found that was not correct for my most distant known ancestor, it is actually Ireland. But that's ok, since I think some of the earliest Irish Celts also populated portions of Scotland. You argue as you say Z253 began in Scotland, that's true you could argue that, but you would most likely be wrong. You could also argue anything you wanted to, it wouldn't make it correct. What's an old L1066 haplotype anyway? Is yours older than mine? I don't think it is, but I haven't compared the two. Mine is pretty old, as is all of L1066 and mine is from Ireland. Z253 is most likely Fir Bolg, or Menapii/Belgae, the current evidence does not support a Continental origin for Z253, let alone L1066 under it and we're making pretty good strides with better understanding at least one L1066 Cluster, the Central Irish. That shall be it's name L1066 Central Irish, has a nice ring to it.

mcg11
06-10-2014, 12:16 PM
I do not argue for or against any origin of Z253, but simply question whether the variance numbers have any real meaning in this case.

Your comment troubles me, in that you seem to regularly take pleasure in diverting discussions away from the main point with insincere comments. I can't imagine why anyone would do that, unless to deliberately derail a truthful, honest discussion for the sake of a personal agenda. From now on I'm just going to follow the standard advice to not feed the trolls.

I am definitely not a troll. I have worked, over the years, with M Jost many times. Like you, I have questioned, his statistical assumptions all based on work by K. Nordtvedt. Some of the issues that bother me are the averaging over different sets of STR's when the range of STR values is about 200 to 100:1. I've also commented many times on the use of faster mutators when trying to evaluate older, higher variance, haplotypes. I've questioned the value of GD. Like you, I've questioned the value of variance when dealing STR's with a constrained set of values such as +/- 1 of the modal.

I don't have a personal agenda, I am very interested in getting to the core of who Z253 was, where he was born, and where and when did his descendants travel. I have hit a brick wall in my own personal attempts to flesh out my heritage.

I also see no problem in identifying groups of people with common mutations and identifying a subclade. What I picked up here was a rush to judgment for the origin of Z253. My best guess is Iberia and before that I don't know. In point of fact I am all for a "truthful, honest discussion" of the origins of Z253.

Best to you and ancient celt, I'll back off and keep my opinions to myself.

AncientCelt
06-10-2014, 12:39 PM
I am definitely not a troll. I have worked, over the years, with M Jost many times. Like you, I have questioned, his statistical assumptions all based on work by K. Nordtvedt. Some of the issues that bother me are the averaging over different sets of STR's when the range of STR values is about 200 to 100:1. I've also commented many times on the use of faster mutators when trying to evaluate older, higher variance, haplotypes. I've questioned the value of GD. Like you, I've questioned the value of variance when dealing STR's with a constrained set of values such as +/- 1 of the modal.

I don't have a personal agenda, I am very interested in getting to the core of who Z253 was, where he was born, and where and when did his descendants travel. I have hit a brick wall in my own personal attempts to flesh out my heritage.

I also see no problem in identifying groups of people with common mutations and identifying a subclade. What I picked up here was a rush to judgment for the origin of Z253. My best guess is Iberia and before that I don't know. In point of fact I am all for a "truthful, honest discussion" of the origins of Z253.

Best to you and ancient celt, I'll back off and keep my opinions to myself.

I must say I got a bit of a laugh at part of your post. You typed "What I picked up here was a rush to judgment for the origin of Z253". It seems like there is only a rush to judgment when someone proposes and origin other than the Continent, or in your case, Scotland. It's always apparently a rush to judgment when someone actually looks at the analysis now, as opposed to what was done over a year ago? Why does that always seem to crop up, that is the troubling piece. It seemed quite appropriate to label L1066 Continental right off that bat, I think you'd agree that was a rush to judgment. Calling L1066 O'Sheas of probable Norman origin and writing papers on it, would you consider that a rush to judgment as well? Let's have a bit of equality here and in the community in general. I don't think anyone is making a final determination on anything at this point, but the evidence is leaning very strongly to Ireland, wouldn't you agree at least with that? If not, fair enough.

mooredan
07-21-2014, 02:13 AM
Could you please tell me you and the GD4 Moore's kit numbers ?

MJost

I'm sorry, I have been trying very hard to get the owner of the kit to join a group. With that, we would get the kit number. I did some detective work and finally was able to contact his daughter, and then him. As it turns out, the gentleman is in his 90's and it took quite a bit just to get him to remember that he even submitted a sample.

It appears that his sample was an import from Igenea, since the email address connected to the sample is in their domain: [email protected] (don't even bother with sending an email to this, it's a black hole). But wait, that might be his kit number?

Anyway, he's long forgotten all about this and his ability to retrieve the login, access or anything else that might enable him to join a group appears to be diminished.

This is truly unfortunate as his sample is a 67 marker test. However, I have been able to deduce that he is a member of the so-called Z253-1121 group (Z253+ is inferred, but most likely DYS537=11 and DYS520=21 -- I got this by seeing that his GD didn't change from 37 to 67)

If you can somehow retrieve his STR data (from the 212518 number), then I would be very interested in the data.

I (and his daughter) has been trying to get his son to submit a sample for testing, but so far we have been unsuccessful.

Dan

Rory Cain
09-04-2015, 10:51 AM
The evidence at this point now supports and Irish origin for Z253...
... Z253 is most likely Fir Bolg, or Menapii/Belgae, the current evidence does not support a Continental origin for Z253...

I have no reason to question either of the above statements. I am not Z253+ but three other genetic groups bearing my surname or other variants of O'Cathain are Z253+. Looking at Z253's distribution in Ireland, I also wondered if it is Menapii. Can you elaborate further?

Huntergatherer1066
09-04-2015, 10:10 PM
If Z253 originated in Ireland then you have wonder by which mechanisms the English, French, and Spanish Z253 lines came to be. The English and French is more understandable, but the Spanish branch with very distantly related members is more intriguing. It seems like many of the English and continental Z253s that have tested extensively downstream of Z253 are either Z2534* or Z2534>Z2201, with a smattering of the other subclades also found outside of Ireland in various places. It will be interesting to see how things develop, especially with the M343 backbone test now available to help push people into Z253. I am open minded and happy wherever my deep Z253 origins end up being.

TigerMW
09-05-2015, 03:17 AM
If Z253 originated in Ireland then you have wonder by which mechanisms the English, French, and Spanish Z253 lines came to be. The English and French is more understandable, but the Spanish branch with very distantly related members is more intriguing. It seems like many of the English and continental Z253s that have tested extensively downstream of Z253 are either Z2534* or Z2534>Z2201, with a smattering of the other subclades also found outside of Ireland in various places. It will be interesting to see how things develop, especially with the M343 backbone test now available to help push people into Z253. I am open minded and happy wherever my deep Z253 origins end up being.
First let's keep in mind Z253 is quite old.
The Z253 in Iberia is mostly along the Pyrenees. If you look at Bronze Age maps you can see the tin road from the Irish Sea area runs right through the north side of the Pyrenees. This doesn't mean that everyone came from Wales/Cornwall or Ireland though. It could be the other way around where people from the Rhone mouth and along the tin road in Gaul moved in to the tin mining areas in the Isles.

miiser
09-05-2015, 07:10 AM
If Z253 originated in Ireland then you have wonder by which mechanisms the English, French, and Spanish Z253 lines came to be. The English and French is more understandable, but the Spanish branch with very distantly related members is more intriguing. It seems like many of the English and continental Z253s that have tested extensively downstream of Z253 are either Z2534* or Z2534>Z2201, with a smattering of the other subclades also found outside of Ireland in various places. It will be interesting to see how things develop, especially with the M343 backbone test now available to help push people into Z253. I am open minded and happy wherever my deep Z253 origins end up being.

I think the simple answer, though not perhaps what you're looking for, is that people move. It's well within the realm of possibility for a lineage to move from the Isles to Germany, France, Spain, or Northern Europe within a single generation, or back and forth between any of those locations. Just like today, different people within a culture do different things. I suppose there would have been some people who preferred a stable, familiar home, and others who always wanted to see what's over the next hill.

There is a general tendency among the forum discussions to speak of haplogroups and cultures as large, homogeneous masses of people, moving in unison in association with archaelogically or historically known events or motivations. Maps typically have large arrows illustrating the movement of cultures or lineages. This can be a useful simplification for some purposes. And macro effects certainly do drive the general movement of people. But it is helpful to keep in mind that the reality is more accurately modeled by numerous small arrows representing single individuals. The first Z253 would have had many, many offspring, some staying put wherever it originated, and many more moving in various directions. A map of every individual Z253 person would be a messy scribble, a criss-crossing spiderweb all over Western Europe. Many of those lineages died off. A few of them flourished and spawned surviving descendant branches.

So I can easily see Z253 originating anywhere in Western Europe, fully consistent with the modern distribution, without the need to explain it via a known migration "mechanism". The mechanism is that one person used a horse, boat, or his legs to move to a different location, for any number of conceivable reasons, and this happened many, many times in different Z253 individuals. 4200 years is plenty of time for Z253 to get dispersed throughout the region via Brownian-like motion. We should not expect every haplogroup movement to be associated with an identifiable mass migration event.

I agree that Z2201 looks like it may have a Spanish MRCA, but I see no obstacle in Z2201's ancestor having possibly migrated to Spain from somewhere else as a Z253. It only needs a single Z253 individual settling in Spain early on, not a large migration, to spawn a branch.

If there were multiple early, majority Spanish subclades of Z253, all concentrated in Spain but with a smattering of members spread to the surrounding areas by diffusion, I would consider that significant evidence for a possible Iberian origin. But Z2201 is just one of many early Z253 branches.

Most of the earliest branches of Z253 have a fairly mixed composition as the result of the Brownian diffusion sort of expansion. It is really only the younger subclades of Z253 that exhibit unique compositions weighted toward specific locales, apart from the general weighting toward Ireland which is evident in many L21 subclades.

Rory Cain
01-24-2016, 12:03 AM
If Z253 originated in Ireland ..

Hm, I must have missed that where someone allegedly said Z253 originated in Ireland. Miser would appear pretty much right- people move.

Msd09
12-16-2016, 09:50 PM
Hi

I have received the following from the Chris Morley Predictor: [GREEN] L21+, [NO HIGHLIGHT] DF13, [RED] Z253-/Z2534-, [GREEN] PF825+. My question re: ancestral Z253: Is it unusual to be PF825+ from Z253-/Z2534-?

Rgds.

MSD

hoxgi
12-19-2016, 02:02 PM
I agree that Z2201 looks like it may have a Spanish MRCA, but I see no obstacle in Z2201's ancestor having possibly migrated to Spain from somewhere else as a Z253. It only needs a single Z253 individual settling in Spain early on, not a large migration, to spawn a branch. If there were multiple early, majority Spanish subclades of Z253, all concentrated in Spain but with a smattering of members spread to the surrounding areas by diffusion, I would consider that significant evidence for a possible Iberian origin. But Z2201 is just one of many early Z253 branches.

Z2201 is one of a block of apparently equivalent SNPs. However at least one of the other SNPs which was included in this block, Z2195, is now known to be positioned upstream of Z2201 and downstream of ZZ5, so we are really talking about the Z2195 branch. The individual who is derived for Z2195 but ancestral for Z2201 and most of the other SNPs in the Z2201 block has English paternal ancestry and the ancestral surname Low(e). Also, each of the two known branches of Z2201 (BY279 and DF73) includes at least one person with Isles paternal ancestry and the surname Johnson or Johnstone.

So it may well be that Z2195 originated in the British Isles before an Iberian migration occurred.

Razr795
09-12-2018, 03:36 PM
Hi all, I've been blundering around this site for a couple of days now. The tables, graphs and abbreviations have thoroughly confused me. I printed off some pages from familytreedna.com (thanks) that have helped a little.
I tested at 23&me (v.5): R-FGC3222, which according to them is one step removed from R-Z253. An earlier test (5/17) results were R-L21.
Suggestions? Revelations? Tests?
I have also tested at Ancestry, uploaded to FTDNA and both Gedmatch sites.


ps: The associated surname is unknown. There is a Cowbird involved and a possible alias as well.

Dubhthach
09-13-2018, 08:50 AM
Hi all, I've been blundering around this site for a couple of days now. The tables, graphs and abbreviations have thoroughly confused me. I printed off some pages from familytreedna.com (thanks) that have helped a little.
I tested at 23&me (v.5): R-FGC3222, which according to them is one step removed from R-Z253. An earlier test (5/17) results were R-L21.
Suggestions? Revelations? Tests?
I have also tested at Ancestry, uploaded to FTDNA and both Gedmatch sites.


ps: The associated surname is unknown. There is a Cowbird involved and a possible alias as well.

So the SNP trail for you is:

R-P312/S116 > Z290 > L21/S145 > DF13 > ZZ10 > Z253 > ZZ6 > FGC3249/FGC3222

So basically Z253 is a subset of wider L21, in turn FGC3222 (and it's equivalnets) are a subset of wider Z253. If you look at the ytree site you can see trees built using BigY testing.

so:
Z253:
https://www.ytree.net/DisplayTree.php?blockID=15

FGC3222/FGC3249
https://www.ytree.net/DisplayTree.php?blockID=281

Have you ordered any tests with FTDNA? Ideally you would need to start with something like a 37-STR test, this should show you some matches with the FTDNA database. Over time obvious the testing can be upgraded. The gold standard on Y-DNA testing is "Big Y-500" but it's expensive (and always worth waiting for a sale)

Razr795
09-13-2018, 07:07 PM
Thank you.
I haven't ordered a kit yet. I'll e-mail FTDNA and see what's available.

Razr795
09-16-2018, 12:42 AM
Splurged. Ordered R1b-Z253 SNP Pack from FTDNA.
23&me says I'm FGC3222. The kit checks Z253 and FGC3222. I hope 23&me didn't make a mistake!