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View Full Version : The Great L51+ / L51- Divide of R1b



TigerMW
06-06-2013, 03:15 AM
The great majority of R1b in Western and Central Europe is L11+. It's L51* brothers also appear to have a westerly distribution, although they appear to be all Z2113+. Of course, the easterly cousins of L51 are R1b-L23xL51, which appear to be all Z2105+/Z2103+. See http://tinyurl.com/R1b-Tree

Here are a couple of ways to look at L51. The first is what Richard Rocca put together, I believe mainly from the Busby data. It is a view of R1b-L51*/Z2113.
http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png


As Alan and Richard have noticed on another thread, L51*/Z2113 in the arm of Austria (Tyrol) may have some of the darkest blue (highest frequency) points on the chart above if we added the Tyrol study in. The 15% is quite a bit higher than anything else we've seen, but L51*/Z2113 isn't that easy to find in the first place.
The paper on Tyrol showed something like 15% of L51* in the former Romance speaking southern area of East Tyrol. That is western Austria so that is somewhat further east than the previously identified SE France/NW Italy peak. In the formerly Slavic northern partof east Tyrole the L51* dropped dramatically. That suggests L51* is ancient and has a hotspot that cannot be explained by Slavs or Germanics and must relate to the prehistoric population of the area.

However, I dusted off another way to look at it, from more of a big picture of all L51+ versus L23+ L51- (EDIT: R1b L51-) by looking at the ratio vis-a-vis each other. Vince Vizachero did this from the Myres data, I believe. The darker the blue the higher the L51 proportion to L23xL51. The brighter the red, the higher proportion of L23xL51(EDIT: R1b L51-).
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/17907527/R1b-L51%2B_to_L51-_Map_by_Vizachero.png

This is a little outdated as the Lucotte paper would probably add some brighter areas for L51- in SE Europe, including the very southern edge of Italy.

It's interesting that there is the bright red streak over Czech Republic, Slovakia and touching on Poland and Hungary, but just south of there in Austria and Hungary blue (L51) is more dominant which moves toward the areas where Rocca shows the higher L51*/Z2113.

Is this meaningful related to ancient cultural changes in this area?

Rathna
06-06-2013, 05:19 AM
As Alan and Richard have noticed on another thread, L51*/Z2113 in the arm of Austria (Tyrol) may have some of the darkest blue (highest frequency) points on the chart above if we added the Tyrol study in. The 15% is quite a bit higher than anything else we've seen, but L51*/Z2113 isn't that easy to find in the first place.



I thank you for you post that we shall meditate, but, as I am studying this matter from many years, the first who spoke of the high percentage of L51 in “Rhaetia” was I since we (Argiedude and me) studied this haplogroup, at least from the paper of Irene Pichler I received from Gabennesch (who comes from there with his hg. E), thus when I wrote on Rootsweb before my banishment, thus 2007.
And this was one of the points of my theory of the Italian Refugium, one amongst many others.

alan
06-06-2013, 10:54 AM
Thanks for starting this thread Mike. Will be an interesting one. The other interesting possible finding is the recent calculation by Mjost that put L51* far closer in age to L23XL51 (and I suppose also created a bigger gap between L51 and L11). That suggested to me that the two L23 branches (one leading to L51 and the othe leading to Z2105+/Z2103+) split fairly soon after L23 and that is why there may be little in the way of a true L23* (L51 ancestral) line to be found anywhere. There could be some but it could be very rare.

If we are looking at L23 soon after splitting into an L51 and a Z2105+/Z2103+ line then that would tend to make one think the centrepoint of true L23* as being further west than some of the discussions about SW Asia, Iran etc we have recently been having, perhaps the Balkans. It might favour looking at the Z2105+/Z2103+ in SW Asia as an eastern thrust from SE Europe (although I dont think variance agrees with this). It could simply be chance that a rare true L23* line among a Z2105+/Z2103+ dominated group made the big step west (maybe because it wanted its own turf).

Its very hard to make sense of this all but if Mjost's finding that L51* is much older than we thought then that really is important. Here is a question. Is L51* older than Z2105+/Z2103+ IN EUROPE generally. I recall most of Europe (other than maybe Romania/Bulgaria) having much less variance than SW Asia. It would be interesting in light of the older age Mjost put on L51* recently if it turned out that L51* is generally older than Z2105+/Z2103+ when you look at Europe alone (perhaps leaving out Bulgaria/Romania). That would seem to be the logical deduction from what has been posted in the past. Maybe Mjost could run that sort of calculation. That would be an eye opener if it was true but not that shocking given that they are parallel lines rather than ancestral and derived. That would draw the eye towards some point between Austria and the Black Sea as the likely origin of the now-lost true L23*. The Danube may be significant as the link that runs between the L51* area and the only area of Europe with high variance Z2105+/Z2103+ around Bulgaria etc. As noted in a previous study the Bulgaria peak of Z2105+/Z2103+ is very much eastern Bulgaria with a massive drop away inland.

Perhaps then true L23* originated on the Lower Danube and split west and east with one line throwing up the L51 SNP as it headed towards Austria and another line throwing up Z2105+/Z2103+ along the western shore of the Black Sea before it moved around the southern shores. If that is possible then we have to ask next how L23* or its M269* ancestor got to the Lower Danube. Well there was a lot going on around that area c. 4000BC including a lot of old European groups and steppe groups but the latter were the new kids on the block in that sort of period and so was L23*. There is not much in the way of pre-L23* and almost nothing in the way of pre-M269 in terms of the P297 group anywhere.

That is why (given the wiping clean of the western true steppes of its population in the last few centuries) I wouldnt rule out a steppe origin in the sort of model Jean M has proposed. I also think it is important to remember that this steppe infiltration process began in the Lower Danube area up to 1000 years before Yamnaya even existed. Anthony etc puts these early groups down as proto-Anatolians but Anthony's model is just a model with most of it inference so there is plenty of wriggle room. The lack of R1b in the Ukraine steppes does not bother me one bit given that the Ukrainian /Russian population of that area only displaced a Tatar population there about 200 years ago and of course the Tatars were just one of a whole line of non-IE and before that Iranian groups who swepped this area. The north pontic steppe zone is a lost cause in terms of modern population DNA.

Rathna
06-06-2013, 12:10 PM
There is not much in the way of pre-L23* and almost nothing in the way of pre-M269 in terms of the P297 group anywhere.
46835 Italy R1b1a2 13 24 16 11 11-13 12 13 12 13 13 29
15 9-9 11 11 25 15 18 30 13-14-14-16 11 11 18-23 15 17 19 16 33-38 12 12
11 8 15-16 8 10 10 8 11 10 0 20-21 16 10 12 12 13 8 12 23 20 15 11 11 13 11 11 12 13
46835 R1b1a2 R-M269 L1-, L2-, L20-, L21-, L23-, L4-, L48-, L49-, M126-, M153-, M160-, M173+, M18-, M207+, M222-, M269+, M343+, M37-, M65-, M73-, P107-, P25+, P310-, P311-, P312-, P66-, SRY2627-, U106-, U152-, U198-
I have this cluster in Tuscany. That you find something similar elsewhere and let me know!

[[[ Mikewww/Moderator on 6/6/2013: There isn't a lot of explanation on why you are jumping into the details of a haplotype but I think this might fit better with your thread on the assessment of early clades so I'll copy it over there and ask for follow-up over there. I shrank the fonts size of the haplotype details so it wouldn't take up as much blog screen space.]]]

TigerMW
06-06-2013, 01:12 PM
...Its very hard to make sense of this all but if Mjost's finding that L51* is much older than we thought then that really is important. Here is a question. Is L51* older than Z2105+/Z2103+ IN EUROPE generally.

Please keep in mind L51xL11 assumed Z2113+ is of generally low frequency. Unlike for L23xL51 assumed Z2105+/Z2103+, we don't have many long haplotypes for L51xL11. All the ones I have seen so far have the unusual 426=13.

The net is I don't trust our aging estimates on L51xL11 as the data is quite limited. To go a step further and estimate ages for L51xL11 by geography is even more speculative.

R.Rocca
06-06-2013, 05:10 PM
However, I dusted off another way to look at it, from more of a big picture of all L51+ versus L23+ L51- by looking at the ratio vis-a-vis each other. Vince Vizachero did this from the Myres data, I believe. The darker the blue the higher the L51 proportion to L23xL51. The brighter the red, the higher proportion of L23xL51.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/17907527/R1b-L51_to_L23xL51_Map_-_Vizachero.png

This is a little outdated as the Lucotte paper would probably add some brigher areas for L23xL51 in SE Europe, including the very southern edge of Italy.

It's interesting that there is the bright red streak over Czech Republic, Slovakia and touching on Poland and Hungary, but just south of there in Austria and Hungria blue (L51) is more dominant which moves toward the areas where Rocca shows the higher L51*/Z2113.

Is this meaningful related to ancient cultural changes in this area?

I'm not sure why that area is showing L23(xL51) as higher than L51+ because the data shows those areas as higher in L51+ and only in a couple of Poland sample locations are they equal. None of the data in that area shows L23(xL51) as being higher than L51+. It may be that the image is showing M269(xL23) added to L23(xL51) as a percentage of M269+?

alan
06-06-2013, 05:48 PM
Please keep in mind L51xL11 assumed Z2113+ is of generally low frequency. Unlike for L23xL51 assumed Z2105+/Z2103+, we don't have many long haplotypes for L51xL11. All the ones I have seen so far have the unusual 426=13.

The net is I don't trust our aging estimates on L51xL11 as the data is quite limited. To go a step further and estimate ages for L51xL11 by geography is even more speculative.

That is true but seeng L51 as a parallel line of similar age to the other L23XL51 lines would make some sense.

Mike I wasnt suggesting doing variance of L51 by geography. I meant a comparison of twoL

1. Pooled L51* as it is a kind of Alpine and adjacent group anyway and feels like a natural group.
2 Pooled Europe-only L23xL51 assumed Z2105+/Z2103+

That would compare the ages of them in Europe.

Its just a hunch I have (based on mjosts recent calculations and previous posts showing L23XL51 to be much lower variance in Europe) that L51* may be older than L23xL51 assumed Z2105+/Z2103+ in Europe. In other words a Europe-only comparison. If L51* is older in Europe then the parallel branch idea may be a runner.

alan
06-06-2013, 06:02 PM
That is true but seeng L51 as a parallel line of similar age to the other L23XL51 lines would make some sense.

Mike I wasnt suggesting doing variance of L51 by geography. I meant a comparison of twoL

1. Pooled L51* as it is a kind of Alpine and adjacent group anyway and feels like a natural group.
2 Pooled Europe-only L23xL51 assumed Z2105+/Z2103+

That would compare the ages of them in Europe.

Its just a hunch I have (based on mjosts recent calculations and previous posts showing L23XL51 to be much lower variance in Europe) that L51* may be older than L23xL51 assumed Z2105+/Z2103+ in Europe. In other words a Europe-only comparison. If L51* is older in Europe then the parallel branch idea may be a runner.

...and if that was correct then that would require some thought as it would make Z2105+/Z2103 look like a more southerly wave that mainly headed into the Balkans from somewhere between the Danube mouth and Anatolia while L51 looks like it could have headed along the Danube to me although the pre-Austria trail is missing so far. They could be different events even or different waves of the same phenomenon. If we used a Kurgan model it would be tempting to link Z2105+/Z2103 with an Anatolian type IE wave (Suvoravo etc?). Anatolian has been suggested to be detectable in Greece as a substrate in languages for example and one way or other it also ended up in Anatolia of course. The major peak in Bulgaria at the Danube mouth is interesting in this regard.

alan
06-06-2013, 06:15 PM
The great majority of R1b in Western and Central Europe is L11+. It's L51* brothers also appear to have a westerly distribution, although they appear to be all Z2113+. Of course, the easterly cousins of L51 are R1b-L23xL51, which appear to be all Z2105+/Z2103+. See http://tinyurl.com/R1b-Tree

Here are a couple of ways to look at L51. The first is what Richard Rocca put together, I believe mainly from the Busby data. It is a view of R1b-L51*/Z2113.
http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png


As Alan and Richard have noticed on another thread, L51*/Z2113 in the arm of Austria (Tyrol) may have some of the darkest blue (highest frequency) points on the chart above if we added the Tyrol study in. The 15% is quite a bit higher than anything else we've seen, but L51*/Z2113 isn't that easy to find in the first place.

However, I dusted off another way to look at it, from more of a big picture of all L51+ versus L23+ L51- by looking at the ratio vis-a-vis each other. Vince Vizachero did this from the Myres data, I believe. The darker the blue the higher the L51 proportion to L23xL51. The brighter the red, the higher proportion of L23xL51.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/17907527/R1b-L51_to_L23xL51_Map_-_Vizachero.png

This is a little outdated as the Lucotte paper would probably add some brigher areas for L23xL51 in SE Europe, including the very southern edge of Italy.

It's interesting that there is the bright red streak over Czech Republic, Slovakia and touching on Poland and Hungary, but just south of there in Austria and Hungria blue (L51) is more dominant which moves toward the areas where Rocca shows the higher L51*/Z2113.

Is this meaningful related to ancient cultural changes in this area?

That map could also be nuanced in Bulgaria, Moldovia etc which tends to suggest a west or NW Black Sea mini peak and the Bulgaria study suggested a big fall to the west (away from the Black Sea/Danube mouth peak) into the mountains. Actually when I look at that map it gives the impression that L23XL51 was deflected in two directions around the Carpathians from a point around the west or NW of the Black Sea. I pointed out before that L23XL51 north of the Carpathians in SE Poland etc is significant because the only way of understanding how L23XL51 got there as well as the southern Balkans (assuming an east to west movement) is if it split quite far east around the Black Sea and a northern branch followed the Dniester or some river that links that area to the land north of the Carpathians. It could be argued this split along the two sides of the Carpathians is an illusion caused by dilution and a complex history along the Danube but the Bulgaria study does seem to strongly suggest L23 entered from the Black Sea area.

TigerMW
06-06-2013, 09:23 PM
I'm not sure why that area is showing L23(xL51) as higher than L51+ because the data shows those areas as higher in L51+ and only in a couple of Poland sample locations are they equal. None of the data in that area shows L23(xL51) as being higher than L51+. It may be that the image is showing M269(xL23) added to L23(xL51) as a percentage of M269+?
I can't find the post. It must have been on DNA-forums. The title was L51+ to L51- but I don't remember what the ratio denominator was or if he did any normalization. Normalization (different scales for L51-) would definitely make it stand out.

alan
06-07-2013, 12:50 AM
I really am beginning to fell that L51 and L23XL51 are very different. L23XL51 looks a more southerly thing that made little impact beyond eastern Europe and SW Asia. Even in SE Europe and Italy it looks southerly. There seems to be very little L23XL51 in northern Italy and very little L51* in southern Italy. The ht35 paper
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B1RIQRMwAdjpVVZRRUhDTE91M1U/edit?usp=sharing&pli=1
table makes it even more stark with ht35 virtually absenst throughout western, west-central, Alpine and northern Europe. That study actually makes L23* look potentially maritime especially if you add the fact that the Bulgaria paper shows most of it was near the Black Sea and you consider the south Balkans, Greek, south Italian and Black Sea coast peaks. L51* looks very different indeed to me with a Danube-Alpine feel to it.

They just look to me like they might have be distinct movements and maybe slightly different periods. That is why I would find comparison of the variance of pooled European L51* and pooled European only L23XL51. I think it might be surprising.

Rathna
06-07-2013, 01:56 AM
I really am beginning to fell that L51 and L23XL51 are very different. L23XL51 looks a more southerly thing that made little impact beyond eastern Europe and SW Asia. Even in SE Europe and Italy it looks southerly. There seems to be very little L23XL51 in northern Italy and very little L51* in southern Italy. The ht35 paper
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B1RIQRMwAdjpVVZRRUhDTE91M1U/edit?usp=sharing&pli=1
table makes it even more stark with ht35 virtually absenst throughout western, west-central, Alpine and northern Europe. That study actually makes L23* look potentially maritime especially if you add the fact that the Bulgaria paper shows most of it was near the Black Sea and you consider the south Balkans, Greek, south Italian and Black Sea coast peaks. L51* looks very different indeed to me with a Danube-Alpine feel to it.

They just look to me like they might have be distinct movements and maybe slightly different periods. That is why I would find comparison of the variance of pooled European L51* and pooled European only L23XL51. I think it might be surprising.

I am a Tuscan (thus not from Southern Italy) from at least 1300 AD and I am R-Z2105*. I have tested only a few persons of my zone, and, if I exclude my son, they have come out:
1) R-M269* with DYS462=12 I suppose of the cluster which generated the Jewish R-M269/L150+/PF7558/PF7562/PF7563
2) R-L23* (very likely Z2105 like me)
3) R-U152 (SMGF: no proof but I use my nose)

Your theory is interesting and merits to be examined, but, as I have said many times: we shouldn’t search for the father where we have the sons, i.e., for amateurs, the Northern Italy R-L23* continues above all in the R-L51, in the R-P312/DF27- and +, in the massive R-U152, thus it isn’t true that there is a difference between South and North Italy. There is the lack of R-L11 I have spoken in another thread, but also about this there are many interesting developments.

alan
06-07-2013, 09:15 AM
I am a Tuscan (thus not from Southern Italy) from at least 1300 AD and I am R-Z2105*. I have tested only a few persons of my zone, and, if I exclude my son, they have come out:
1) R-M269* with DYS462=12 I suppose of the cluster which generated the Jewish R-M269/L150+/PF7558/PF7562/PF7563
2) R-L23* (very likely Z2105 like me)
3) R-U152 (SMGF: no proof but I use my nose)

Your theory is interesting and merits to be examined, but, as I have said many times: we shouldn’t search for the father where we have the sons, i.e., for amateurs, the Northern Italy R-L23* continues above all in the R-L51, in the R-P312/DF27- and +, in the massive R-U152, thus it isn’t true that there is a difference between South and North Italy. There is the lack of R-L11 I have spoken in another thread, but also about this there are many interesting developments.

Rathna. Thank you for your comments. However, L51* is not the son of L23XL51 but a brother or parallel line. I notice though that in the new Italy paper that Dienekes posted L23XL51 ran from about 10% in the south to 5% in the north-west. I combined that knowledge with RR's map of L51* which placed the Italian peak of that clade in the north/north-west (a few percent only). Combining the two it seemed to me that there could only be 2 or 3% of L23XL51 in north or NW Italy.

Rathna
06-07-2013, 10:01 AM
Rathna. Thank you for your comments. However, L51* is not the son of L23XL51 but a brother or parallel line. I notice though that in the new Italy paper that Dienekes posted L23XL51 ran from about 10% in the south to 5% in the north-west. I combined that knowledge with RR's map of L51* which placed the Italian peak of that clade in the north/north-west (a few percent only). Combining the two it seemed to me that there could only be 2 or 3% of L23XL51 in north or NW Italy.
From the 1KGP inTuscany, out of about 50 people tested, the R-L23 were 2: thus a percentage of 4%, and this could be the percentage. See Richard Rocca. But this shouldn't exclude that there could be some places with a highest percentage: for instance Western Tuscany where I have tested these persons.

alan
06-07-2013, 01:24 PM
From the 1KGP inTuscany, out of about 50 people tested, the R-L23 were 2: thus a percentage of 4%, and this could be the percentage. See Richard Rocca. But this shouldn't exclude that there could be some places with a highest percentage: for instance Western Tuscany where I have tested these persons.

Anything is possible given the passing of time but I cannot help but feel that L23XL51 and L51 have very different patterns and it is not logical to simply look at L51 as derived from a non-ancestral form of L23XL51. Its also true that the latter is very widespread at higher levels from southern Italy, through the Balkans to Anatolia and adjacent and has a Carpathian extension too. Even if it was ancestral (which it isnt) we would have a very wide choice of origin points as the higher L51* area and the higher L23XL51 area although you could say that the two zones of elevated numbers of the two clades probably closest approach each other somewhere around the Austria-Hungary zone or the like. Also, the east Tyrol study did show that Slavic intrusion had apparently removed most of the L51* (along with other classic Alpine R1b clades like U152) in the area they settled and there is no reason to believe that may not have been true further east along the Danube. The Slavic intrusion looks to have been more of a folk movement that changed underlying patterns while the Germans in the same area seem to have simply been an adstrate that achieved language shift without removing the local populations below them. I dont think it should ever be underestimate what an impact the Slavic Medieval movements had and how much they may have obscured what went before them in some areas.

TigerMW
06-07-2013, 02:15 PM
I can't find the post. It must have been on DNA-forums. The title was L51+ to L51- but I don't remember what the ratio denominator was or if he did any normalization. Normalization (different scales for L51-) would definitely make it stand out.

Alan, I went back and checked and my notes and all I have is that Vince called it "L51+ to L51-" so we have to assume that the red is all R1b that is L51- (not just L23+). I've edited the original post to clarify that.

TigerMW
06-07-2013, 05:20 PM
Here are two other maps of R1b L51- people. The first is from the 2013 Lucotte paper and is probably are most current and comprehensive data set for R1bxL51 people. In "Ht35 Y-Chromosome Haplotype in Europe", Lucotte says,
DYS393 (is) 12 for haplotype ht35 (Cinnioglu et al., 2004)
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/17907527/R1bxL51_Frequency_Map_using_proxy.jpg

This second map represents the differentiation in age by geography of R1b-L23xL51. I would not consider the actual ages themselves as they are not based on germ-line mutation rates, but that is just my opinion. This is not a proxy. It is the actual L23+ L51- people from the Myres study as depicted by Vince Vizachero. It is likely to be Z2103+/Z2105+, at least most of it.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/17907527/R1b-L23xL51_Relative_Coalescense_Map_Myres_Data_by_Viz achero_2010.png

I think we need to keep in mind that all of these kinds of maps have underlying interpolation methods that draw out pretty, smooth clines. The real data is quite patchy. We should also keep in mind that there can and are great differences between different ethnic groups of the same geography.

razyn
06-07-2013, 05:36 PM
I think that new Georgian study would be germane to this discussion. The Lucotte map doesn't show anything that far east, but we now have some data, in case anybody is actually looking that way.

http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?922-Georgia-DNA-project-and-early-branches-of-R1b&highlight=Georgian

TigerMW
06-07-2013, 05:39 PM
Since these maps have many "imagined" lines in them I would not think of them as too precise. That caveat being said, there is something I noticed that is interesting speculation.

Look at the juxtapositin of the red (L51- leaning) and the blue (L51+ leaning) in Vizachero's map in reply #1. The Czech Republic and Slovakia are L51- leaning whereas Austria and Hungary are L51+ leaning.

Now look at Lucotte's map of L51- (using ht35 proxy) frequency stand-alone, not relative to L51+. L51- has approximately the same frequency ranges across the Czech Republic/Slovakia and Hungary (perhaps Eastern Austria too). The difference between the two maps in this region shows us that L51+ must be higher in Hungary but L51- still exists there are high levels (for L51-).

The high diversity point of L51+ and the L51- paragroup ends up being Hungary! That's an interesting point to ponder.

TigerMW
06-07-2013, 05:53 PM
I think that new Georgian study would be germane to this discussion. The Lucotte map doesn't show anything that far east, but we now have some data, in case anybody is actually looking that way.
The dividing line between between L51+ and L51- doesn't necessarily mean that L23 expanded from there. I think that dividing line along with L51xL11/Z2113 and L11 might be more useful for understanding L51+. Some will disagree and say this L51+/L51- dividing area might be the place R1b-L23/L51+ and R1b-L23>Z2103+/Z2015+ both split from.

I think that L23, along with Z2103/Z2105 may have originated further east (than Hungary), but that is just speculation based on the best understanding I have of L23xL51 variance by geography (which is subject to vagaries) and what Spencer Wells calls the "Eurasian Heartland", Central Asia, a suspected origination location for P, Q and R.

R.Rocca
06-07-2013, 05:59 PM
Since these maps have many "imagined" lines in them I would not think of them as to precise. That caveat being said, there is something I noticed that is interesting speculation.

Look at the juxtapositin of the red (L51- leaning) and the blue (L51+ leaning) in Vizachero's map in reply #1. The Czech Republic and Slovakia are L51- leaning whereas Austria and Hungary are L51+ leaning.

Now look at Lucotte's map of L51- (using ht35 proxy) frequency stand-alone, not relative to L51+. L51- has approximately the same frequency ranges across the Czech Republic/Slovakia and Hungary (perhaps Eastern Austria too). The difference between the two maps in this region shows us that L51+ must be higher in Hungary but L51- still exists there are high levels (for L51-).

The high diversity point of L51+ and the L51- paragroup ends up being Hungary! That's an interesting point to ponder.

While I understand why it is the way it is, I don't think we can read much into the finer details of the L51+ versus L51- map. Since L51 and Z2103/05 are brother clades, it is not valid to lump M269(xL23) in with L23(x51) (or presumed Z2103) any more than it would be to lump M269(xL23) in with L51+.

I still get worried about the Lucotte map since they title it with the dreaded word 'haplotype', making it seem like all DYS393=12 samples are lumped in.

TigerMW
06-07-2013, 06:02 PM
...I still get worried about the Lucotte map since they title it with the dreaded word 'haplotype', making it seem like all DYS393=12 samples are lumped in.

Usage of what they call the Armenian Haplotype as a proxy for L51- looks to be very consistent with SNP testing for Eastern Europe and SW Asia. I wouldn't say the same for Western Europe though.

I would say it is no better or worse than using P312xU152xL21 remainder percentages as a proxy for DF27. In other words, I think it works, but we just need to keep in mind this stuff isn't too precise.

R.Rocca
06-07-2013, 06:04 PM
Usage of what they call the Armenian Haplotype as a proxy for L51- looks to be very consistent with SNP testing for Eastern Europe and SW Asia. I wouldn't say the same for Western Europe though.

I would say it is no better or worse than using P312xU152xL21 remainder percentages as a proxy for DF27. In other words, I think it works, but we just need to keep in mind this stuff isn't too precise and we don't know what we don't know.

But the difference is that we do have data for L23(xL51), so I'm not sure why they did not subtract it.

TigerMW
06-07-2013, 06:43 PM
While I understand why it is the way it is, I don't think we can read much into the finer details of the L51+ versus L51- map. Since L51 and Z2103/05 are brother clades, it is not valid to lump M269(xL23) in with L23(x51) (or presumed Z2103) any more than it would be to lump M269(xL23) in with L51+.

This is what's fun about discussion. Two people can look at the same thing and have two legitimate different interpretations. I'm always amazed about how different interpretations can be.

In this case, I look at the fact that the L51- measurements as being a paragroup as being more instructive rather than being less. They represent early branching diversity which I think is more important that recent branching as a directional indicator. The early branching diversity is higher in L51- areas. M269+ L23- does not geographically "lump" well with L51+.

Anecdotally, you can go to the R1b ht35 (M269xP312xU106) project and just scroll down the country column.
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/ht35new/default.aspx?section=yresults

Despite the very heavy Western European and Isles testing bias of FTDNA data, Western Europe just doesn't hardly show up until you get down to L150.2+ and L51+. There are a lot Eastern European places and SW Asian places for M269+ L23- L51- and L23+ L51- people. The only place kind of western-ish that shows up is Italy. If we believe Lucotte, Italian L51- is mostly from the very southern tip of Italy, not North Italy/Cisalpine Gaul.

I know that some will say the M269 in Eastern Europe is the result of a back migration from the Rhine area, but if we are talking L51-, you can't really say there is much of a reason to think it came from the Rhine region (looking at Lucotte's map and data from the studies, etc.). It's simpler to come straight north from the Balkans or northwest/west from the Black Sea area.


But the difference is that we do have data for L23(xL51), so I'm not sure why they did not subtract it.
I don't want to defend Lucotte as I would definitely agree that SNP testing validation is needed. My guess is they just did what they did to get the most number of haplotypes/biggest survey. I would say if they had SNP info and didn't use it that is a flaw. Still, 393=12 is not a bad proxy for L51- in the east.

TigerMW
06-07-2013, 07:28 PM
The early branching diversity is higher in L51- areas. M269+ L23- does not geographically "lump" well with L51+....
The only place kind of western-ish that shows up is Italy. If we believe Lucotte, Italian L51- is mostly from the very southern tip of Italy, not North Italy/Cisalpine Gaul.

Maju's map using the Myres data seems to correlate with Lucotte's paper, at least roughly, and the Maju map is SNP based. Trying to remember the color legend in your head while scanning the geographies is a test of one's faculties so
... let's just focus on the L51+ versus L51- stuff. Keep focused on Dark Blue and Dark Orange as they are L51- and everything else is L51+

See how L23xL51 (probably Z2103/Z2105) "lumps" well with M269xL23 (dark blue) in regions where M269xL23 is significant.

Notice that M269xL23 has its best showing in the northern half of the Balkans and over in North Iran.

R1b-M269 substructure chart from Maju Leherensuge blog, 2010, using Myres data.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/17907527/R1b-Frequency_Map_Myres_data_by_Maju_Leherensuge_2010. png

jdean
06-07-2013, 07:36 PM
And your eyesight : )

alan
06-07-2013, 10:27 PM
Since these maps have many "imagined" lines in them I would not think of them as too precise. That caveat being said, there is something I noticed that is interesting speculation.

Look at the juxtapositin of the red (L51- leaning) and the blue (L51+ leaning) in Vizachero's map in reply #1. The Czech Republic and Slovakia are L51- leaning whereas Austria and Hungary are L51+ leaning.

Now look at Lucotte's map of L51- (using ht35 proxy) frequency stand-alone, not relative to L51+. L51- has approximately the same frequency ranges across the Czech Republic/Slovakia and Hungary (perhaps Eastern Austria too). The difference between the two maps in this region shows us that L51+ must be higher in Hungary but L51- still exists there are high levels (for L51-).

The high diversity point of L51+ and the L51- paragroup ends up being Hungary! That's an interesting point to ponder.

Interesting. I was just thinking today (based on my new belief that most L23XL51 is a separate wave from L51*) that the Danube and Hungary could be important as the point where L51 may have dropped off as we move east along the Danube and that the ancestral form of L23* leading to L51 could have occurred there on the Danube. The Danube could have been a fast route for L51 to outstrip other L23 lineages to the west. I think that idea has to be factored in. L23XL51 either was not much older than L51 (as Mjost seemed to indicate) OR L23XL51 was very slow to progress beyond eastern Europe. Its important that it is established whether or not their was a hiatus or not between L23* and L51*.

It is interesting that L23* looks relatively young in Greece, south Italy and the west Balkans even though the numbers are high there. That agrees with my current thoughts that there has been a displacement from the east Balkans to both the west Balkans (and south Italy) and Anatolia. As I posted before there is evidence that the Greeks and Albanians in the west Balkans were late arrivals from elsewhere in the Balkans to the north and east. The variance chart would appear to agree with this. South Italian L23* looks like an overspill from those areas, something that is well attested historically. I have heard before that the middle eastern variance cannot be trusted on that map as it is distorted by a couple of odd results from Pakistan or thereabouts. Its interesting that around the Danube mouth/Black Sea western coast area there is both a peak in variance and also of frequency (not brought on the map here but present in the Bulgaria study). Then the variance rises again in the east of Anatolia on the other side of the Bosphoris. That sort of pattern could fit a move from the eastern Balkans into Anatolia and Armenia suggested for most several branches of IE speakers in Anatolia. There is also the low frequency but high variance zone in the western steppes. It is possible that that could be a remnant of a pre-Old Europe steppe location but there is too little to conclude.

I have diverted to talk about L23XL51 because I think the strongest evidence is that it is oldest in terms of the farming Old Europe area in the east of the Balkans. I think there is a strong hint in the variance map that it moved from there to Anatolia before it moved to the west Balkans, Greece, Italy or north of the Carpathians. So perhaps the answer is that for a significant time L23XL51 was confined to the eastern Balkans (and western steppes??) before moving into Anatolia and adjacent with the IE peoples associated there with a Balkan origin traditionally as well as a later move to the west and south Balkans with Albanians and Greeks. It is interesting though to consider that L23* may have only expanded to the south and west Balkans with Greeks and Albanians and been restricted in extent. That might indicate at one time R1b was settled mainly in pockets with gaps in between. Perhaps L51* formed a pocket somewhere detached along the Danube. The L23XL51 story suggests that once a pocket was formed it would extend by natural routes from the pocket such as from the east Balkans into Anatolia and later into the south and west Balkans. So it gradually built up a block as it filled in. In parts of this area it may have filled in early enought to make L51 and derived to make the sort of headway it made elsewhere. Indeed L51 and derived may have been L23XL51 to other areas. The patterning suggests to me that they expanded from widely separated pockets and were able to dominate a zone. This seems clear and compact in terms of L23XL51. However I would suggest that L51 may also have got ahead of L23XL51 and blocked any potential expansion. L23XL51 drops off to the north and also in the west Balkans partly along the Slavic language sort of border areas. The impact of the Slavs on pre-Slavic yDNA has been shown in the Tyrol study. So its not a huge surprise it drops off and this may not have applied in pre-Slavic times. However, in south central Europe/the Danubian area, beyond the Slavic area L23XL51 drops off around the Austria-Hungary border.The variance of L23XL51 also drops like a stone at Hungary's eastern border on the variance map. That to me suggests that Hungary is the country where first-in advantage was lost relative to L51*. Certainly in that area the Austria-Hungary area seems to be where L51 started to gain an advantage. It is interesting that the Tyrol Romance substrate area had a lot of L51* and looked to have been trucated by the Slavs so it may have extended a little further east. In Italy it seems clear to me that L23XL51 entered from opposite ends of the country although L23* doesnt seem to have an high variance there so Italy may have been settled almost in a pincer movement by R1b although I suspect L51* entered Italy well before L23*.

So in summary I would think L23* was early in the north-east and east Balkans and spread after some time to Anatolia in a number of waves. I also think it spread in a number of waves from the east Balkans to Greece, Albania etc but not as early as the first waves to Anatolia. I imagine it moved up the Danube but it looks like it was stopped by L51 around Austria or Hungary. I notice on the variance map that the age of L23* plummets between Romania and Hungary and adjacent areas to the north and west. There must be a reason for that. Something must have stopped them. While Slavic expansion may have effected frequencies around there it shouldnt have effected variance that much. My feeling is that L51* beat L23XL51 to Hungary and it may have been a sort of frontier zone between these two parallel clades. So a lot suggests to me that L23* lost its first in advantage over L51 around Hungary area on the Danube. In places like Italy it seems to have had less and less impact from SE to NW. Again I am sure the sequencing of the expansion of the two clades was a big factor as well as distinct histories. Anyway the upshot I think is that it is a tale of two totally separate clades, one of which may have got its first foothold around Hungary and another than had its first foothold in the east Balkans.


Reading between the lines I suspect

alan
06-07-2013, 10:31 PM
Alan, I went back and checked and my notes and all I have is that Vince called it "L51+ to L51-" so we have to assume that the red is all R1b that is L51- (not just L23+). I've edited the original post to clarify that.

If that was the case then it would mean the variance would jump where some M269* was in the mix. The peaks of that area in Kosovo and Armenians in Ararat as far as I know but certainly the if M269* was mixed into the Kosovo sampe it does not show up as a variance high.

alan
06-07-2013, 10:34 PM
I am a Tuscan (thus not from Southern Italy) from at least 1300 AD and I am R-Z2105*. I have tested only a few persons of my zone, and, if I exclude my son, they have come out:
1) R-M269* with DYS462=12 I suppose of the cluster which generated the Jewish R-M269/L150+/PF7558/PF7562/PF7563
2) R-L23* (very likely Z2105 like me)
3) R-U152 (SMGF: no proof but I use my nose)

Your theory is interesting and merits to be examined, but, as I have said many times: we shouldn’t search for the father where we have the sons, i.e., for amateurs, the Northern Italy R-L23* continues above all in the R-L51, in the R-P312/DF27- and +, in the massive R-U152, thus it isn’t true that there is a difference between South and North Italy. There is the lack of R-L11 I have spoken in another thread, but also about this there are many interesting developments.

Could you be an Etruscan? Many people see the Etruscans as originating in what is a heavier L23* zone in Anatolia or the Aghean compared to north Italy.

TigerMW
06-08-2013, 02:49 AM
If that was the case then it would mean the variance would jump where some M269* was in the mix. The peaks of that area in Kosovo and Armenians in Ararat as far as I know but certainly the if M269* was mixed into the Kosovo sampe it does not show up as a variance high.

Everything I've seen of M269* is that it is a bare remnant of the original branching. In other words, the branching has truly been lopped off (like by a bad tree pruner) or otherwise gone extinct. It does not have high variance in general calculations.

I just don't think we have a scattered enough branching of M269* (at least yet) to tell much.

I could say the same about L51xL11. If more of these branches had survived we'd have some 426=12 (like L11) L51xL11 folks out there. We haven't found them yet. L51xL11/Z2113 seems to be 426=13 so far and 426 is a very slow STR.

alan
06-09-2013, 02:13 AM
Everything I've seen of M269* is that it is a bare remnant of the original branching. In other words, the branching has truly been lopped off (like by a bad tree pruner) or otherwise gone extinct. It does not have high variance in general calculations.

I just don't think we have a scattered enough branching of M269* (at least yet) to tell much.

I could say the same about L51xL11. If more of these branches had survived we'd have some 426=12 (like L11) L51xL11 folks out there. We haven't found them yet. L51xL11/Z2113 seems to be 426=13 so far and 426 is a very slow STR.

I realise that M269* today is just the tip of some distant parallel line but what I was thinking is would mixing some of it in a largely L23XL51 sample not great a sort of interclade effect as they would not coalece until back around the time of the M269 SNP. Maybe I

alan
06-17-2013, 11:09 PM
After L51* coming up with a reasonable showing in the former Romance speaking part of Tyrol, it is interesting to note that there are two L51* guys in the FTDNA hungarian project

TigerMW
06-17-2013, 11:36 PM
After L51* coming up with a reasonable showing in the former Romance speaking part of Tyrol, it is interesting to note that there are two L51* guys in the FTDNA hungarian project

This probably belongs on some general R1b thread about metals or something, but I often wonder if there isn't something to the Eastern Bell Beaker folks in the Hungarian Plains. I've read that though there was not a huge impact there, there was an introduction of new cranial structures with them and the metallurgy with them and the Corded Ware were essentially the same. I know there is a lot more than pottery to the Bell Beaker package but I don't think something quite matches up yet with the "reflux" idea, etc. I guess I lean back to the metallurgy aspects which actually makes some sense if you think about male oriented occupations and female occupations. ... just thinking out loud.

rms2
06-18-2013, 12:13 AM
Anthony mentions the Csepel Beaker site in Hungary as one of the oldest Beaker sites anywhere.

R.Rocca
06-18-2013, 12:16 AM
After L51* coming up with a reasonable showing in the former Romance speaking part of Tyrol, it is interesting to note that there are two L51* guys in the FTDNA hungarian project

Based on Martinez-Cruz (2012), it seems like Hungarian L51* (DYS426=13) is only equal to 1%.

TigerMW
06-18-2013, 03:51 AM
Based on Martinez-Cruz (2012), it seems like Hungarian L51* (DYS426=13) is only equal to 1%.

That's the problem with L51xL11/Z2113, it is light and scattered in general. Frequency doesn't indicate origin anyway, but I do take note of the high frequency in Tyrol. That's a flag, not necessarily an origin flag but a marker on the trail I would think.... so which direction was the trail going?

Do you see L51xL11 in Hungary as an eastward Celtic intrusion? or some kind of late Germanic migration?

alan
06-18-2013, 11:00 AM
That's the problem with L51xL11/Z2113, it is light and scattered in general. Frequency doesn't indicate origin anyway, but I do take note of the high frequency in Tyrol. That's a flag, not necessarily an origin flag but a marker on the trail I would think.... so which direction was the trail going?

Do you see L51xL11 in Hungary as an eastward Celtic intrusion? or some kind of late Germanic migration?

The hungarians only caught my eye because there seems to be no L51* in other countries to the east. I suppose it had to start somewhere and if it was moving fast then the begining point would have very little indeed. We will probably never know the starting point but I was looking at the Danube angle when thinking about the Hungarian pair. Even 1% would be the start of a cline when L51* never gets above a handful of percent. Are there any L51* in Romanian, Bulgaria, Ukraine etc?

alan
06-18-2013, 11:35 AM
I suppose the east Tyrol Romance substrate finding is still very much within the mid-west Alpine zone very near north Italy where other L51* is present. I am still rather taken (although I know its a small sample etc) by Mjost's calculation that L51* may be older than once suspected and not massively younger than L23XL51. If that was true that would be extremely interesting and could mean the ancestral L23XL51 trail to the Alps was slight.

I like the idea of an early split of the L51* or pre-L51* ancestral L23* line from the rest of non-ancestral L23XL51 clades. A sort of two streams model perhaps with a parting somewhere along the Danube. Actually an early split would fit quite well with the model of R1b entering the west by some link to the early mines in Italy, Remedello, 'stelae people' (the later show Remedello daggers) etc. That would require a movement as far as the Italian Alps not much later than 3500BC.

Most L23XL51 has a far more southern distribution in Italy. L51 looks to me like a separate stream. Now we have L51 in east Tyrol too it would make sense if it is indeed older and dates to around 3500BC rather than 3000BC or later. Otherwise there should be a 'true L23*' trail across the Alps to southern France and Iberia given that copper working had spread that entire distance by 3000BC. The previous dates for L51* that put it closer to L11* and post-3000BC in date dont actually fit the model of the spread of copper, especially now a singificant amount has been found in east Tyrol. The younger suggested date would mean that the entire spread of copper across the Alps to southern France and Iberia would be pre-L51* and would have left a 'true L23*' trail. Not to mention that any such trail of L23* would only give rise to L51 in one spot. Certainly the L51* trail is a reasonable fit for the model of the pre-beaker copper workers influx/stelae people etc but it only works if Mjost is correct that L51* is older than previously suspected.

alan
06-18-2013, 02:20 PM
The only indirect evidence I can see for L51* having an origin further east than the Alps (which would possibly be in keeping with the possibility of an older date) is that it is present in southern Poland. That lies separated from the rest of L51* by the Carpathians. I wonder if metal ore seekers could have headed that way as well as the Alps from a location that links both areas. I get the impression that L23XL51 partly moved west over the north Carpathians from near the NW of the Black Sea while most headed south into the Balkans or along the Danube. It is possible that L51* occurred first around Hungary and the more succesfull line headed west to the Alps and a less successful line headed north to explore the west Carpatians/Tatras around the southern border of Poland. I am not sure about the metal deposits in that area but it tends to be the east Carpathians that you hear about metal ore exploitation. L51* could have been looking for its own patch because other non-ancestral L23XL51 lineages spread fairly heavily in the east Carpathian and Balkan areas. The next new opportunities for a lineage moving west along the Danube pypassing the east Carpathians to the south may have been the Alps and the west end of the Carpathians/Tatras. Maybe that lineage experienced the L51* SNP in Hungary and there was a bifurcation to the Alps and west Carpathians from there, with the latter not prospering and the former doing well. That would make a great deal of sense to me.

The group of L51* that reached the Alps would have found an area where only unsuccessful experimental sulphide working had taken place (such as apparently seen at Brixlig c 4500BC - the actual copper objects there were imported from points east). A point noted by French archaeologists looking at the beaker period noted that they were looking for new sources and were probably denied the sources used by the natives in Languedoc. So avoidance of areas where the ores were already controlled by locals may have taken place too further east at an earlier date. That might also explain why L23* actually drops off in Bulgaria in the Carpathians.

It is possible that L51* occurred further east and approached the Carpathians along the northern side but I dont think the geography of the surviving L51* supports that.

TigerMW
06-18-2013, 02:48 PM
...
It is possible that L51* occurred further east and approached the Carpathians along the northern side but I dont think the geography of the surviving L51* supports that.
Agreed - straightforward evidence is not available for that.

However, this is where L11* might come into play, particularly if U106 was north and east. U106 does make sense to being east of Germany early in its life since U106 didn't seem to be involved in the Atlantic Beaker or Celtic world.

If some stray L11* went north of the Carpathians and gave birth to U106 there, that accounts for the absence of U106 in the west. It really would have only taken one L11* man, but to be successful (as he apparently was) he probably took some of his clan and its logistical network/technologies/practices with him.

Going back to the concept of a single Mr. L11 MRCA man and a single Mr. MRCA U106, L51, etc., etc. the implications of where L11 was impacts L51 too. There is a domino effect or chain (phylogenetic) that has geographic implications.

alan
06-18-2013, 04:07 PM
That's the problem with L51xL11/Z2113, it is light and scattered in general. Frequency doesn't indicate origin anyway, but I do take note of the high frequency in Tyrol. That's a flag, not necessarily an origin flag but a marker on the trail I would think.... so which direction was the trail going?

Do you see L51xL11 in Hungary as an eastward Celtic intrusion? or some kind of late Germanic migration?

That the problem with small numbers. Although in real terms 1% of the modern Hungarian population is 100,000 people. So its hard to know the way to look at it. I think with L51* being so rare any of it is significant. Another thing is the Tyrol study shows just how massively the Slavic and other Medieval expansions could transform the yDNA landscape. They seem to me to have had a folk movement type impact in some areas, drastically erasing what went before in places. There is no reason to believe L51* simply stopped dead at the Romance-Slavic placename line before the Slavs arrived. As I posted before, the south Poland L51* around the west Carpathians could be an indirect hint that L51* did explore that area too and a first commencement of L51* in Hungary would make sense for a lineage from the east that explored both the Alps and Carpathians. Its also fair to say that the junction between the raised L23XL51 area and the zone dominated by L51 and downstream does seem to occur in this sort of area very broadly speaking.

I think the model that R1b spread west as metal seekers needs to be explored further. They presumably didnt just start that interest in metals as they arrived around the Alps. Their immediate ancestors in previous centuries must have had this tradition too. It is intersting that L23XL51 does tend to grow high in metal source areas to the east too - the Caucasus, Balkans, southern Poland etc, hence the suggestion of a CMP connection. Maybe R1b lineages spread thin and only tended to really take off when they could command a resource or an important trade node and was spread thinner in between. The non wave-like patterns of R1b clades may back that sort of model. The suggestion is that an L51 lineage first found some sort of growth in the Alps and perhaps the west Carpathians and that the Alps lineage went on to later generation the L11-P312 sequence. I get the strong impression that the other main L23XL51 lineages did not cross beyond eastern Europe by the same route. I think they crossed by a much more southern route along the Med. and have a completely separate history in western Europe spreading along the Med. at a later date.

alan
06-18-2013, 04:40 PM
Agreed - straightforward evidence is not available for that.

However, this is where L11* might come into play, particularly if U106 was north and east. U106 does make sense to being east of Germany early in its life since U106 didn't seem to be involved in the Atlantic Beaker or Celtic world.

If some stray L11* went north of the Carpathians and gave birth to U106 there, that accounts for the absence of U106 in the west. It really would have only taken one L11* man, but to be successful (as he apparently was) he probably took some of his clan and its logistical network/technologies/practices with him.

Going back to the concept of a single Mr. L11 MRCA man and a single Mr. MRCA U106, L51, etc., etc. the implications of where L11 was impacts L51 too. There is a domino effect or chain (phylogenetic) that has geographic implications.

I totally agree. Sometimes people dont keep this in mind IMO. IF there is a larger gap in age between L51 and L11 (and I think its almost necessary to maintain the pre-beaker copper workers model as it stands without significant modification) then it seems almost certain to me that L11 must have arisen as L51 slowly crossed the Alpine zone. There is probably 3-500 years between the likely arrival of new copper working groups in Italy and their emerging into southern France. That is where the a longer L51 to L11 phase followed by a rapid L11-P312 phase would fit well the pre-beaker copper working model. The phase of copper working crossing the Alps was several centuries (C. 3500BC-3000BC) but the phase between copper working crossing from SE France to Iberia was lightning fast (sea travel?). That would fit a rapid appearance of L11* in the western Alps with P312* occuring in the same area before heading to Iberia. The timing of the copperworking move to Iberia at c. 3000BC would be a little earlier than P312 is normally dated. This is the only weakness in the model IMO. In such a model DF27 would pretty well have to have arisen in Iberia because there is a long period of c. 300-400 years between pre-beaker copper (and hypothetical P312* lineages) arriving in Iberia and the Iberian beaker impulses heading back east to SE France etc.

The alternative to this is that P312 does only date from c. 2500BC didnt make it to Iberia with the pre-beaker copper workers (perhaps it was dead-end L11* and L51* groups which would correlate better with the normal variance dating). If we dont correlate P312 with the pre-beaker move of copper working in Iberia then (given that there is not a huge amount of L51* and L11* in Iberia) that would require us to see DF27 in Iberia as a later east to west reflux in the late beaker period. Its not impossible (Iberian P312 is stronger in the east than west). Iberia has always been the most problematic area to fit into this model.

alan
06-18-2013, 04:55 PM
Actually going back to the origin point of the L23-L51 transition, one other possibility is that rather than taking the Danube some L23 lineages used a mountain route prospecting for metal sources they could get their hands on and that route would possibly have taken the from Romania, the SW corner of Ukraine, Slovakia and then into Austria. That would be a route that people targetting obvious upland areas for prospecting may well have taken. In some ways it is a little wrong headed to look for metal prospectors seeking out grassy plains and rivers. In fact part of the contast between R1b and R1a groups could be down to that if the R1b spread was primariy due to people seeking ores and the control of metal trading. The primary motivation of the R1a groups may have been large areas of lowland pasture.

alan
06-18-2013, 09:03 PM
I was looking again at Brixlegg. The layer with the earliest metal seems likely to have belong to a group derived from a Lengyel group with Balko-Carpathian links c. 4500-4000BC. I still agree with the conclusion that some have reached that the stray trace of sulphide copper of very poor quality near a hearth dated c. 4000BC looks like experimentation by a group not used to Sulphidic ores and who otherwise appear to have imported Balkans type copper artefacts. I do not believe this is the start of an arsenical copper type tradition and I do not believe it relates to R1b.

However, a new confident arsenical copper tradtion was apparent here in the Bronze Age. There is no doubt that local arsenical bronze in the Inn Valley in Austrian Tyrol was mined and exploited in the Bronze Age when local production had clearly replaced importation of Balkans copper. The problem with the Brixlegg site is that it is missing the period we are most interested in c. 3500BC-3000BC as it has a late Neolithic phase and a Bronze Age phase 1500 years later but not a copper age phase. Regardless the Tyrol concentration of L51 near a huge arsenical copper source with (undated) evidence of early mines worked by firesetting and stone hammers is too much of a coincidence to me and I wouldnt be surprised if this was an early stop of the CMP tradition although it falls in between the two period represented at the Brixlegg site.

alan
06-18-2013, 09:53 PM
Extremely frustratingly all the papers on Tyrol prehistoric mining are behind paywalls. However, it is clear that Austrian Tyrol was a huge mining area and I doubt the L51* concentration is a coincidence.

One other thing to note is the Brenner pass links the Austrian North Tyrol to Italian South Tyrol (Bolzano). This of course is Iceman country. OK he was a G man but a sample of one doesnt mean much.

Rathna
06-19-2013, 01:05 PM
Alan, you know that I don't like novels and I am seeing that you have some adept. About the origin (by a genetic point of view) of Alto Adige/South Tyrol, I have written many letters to Irene Pichler in the past and I don't repeat like Paganini. I like data, because Genetics is made only by these ones.

Where is the split in Italy of R-L51*?
From Boattini et al. 2013:
Pistoia (Tuscany): 1 out 13 tested= 7,69%
Catania (Sicily): 4 out 52 tested= 7,69%

Italy: 15 out 884 tested= 1,69%

TigerMW
06-19-2013, 01:40 PM
Alan, you know that I don't like novels and I am seeing that you have some adept....
I don't really see the need for personalizing discussions. It's a better thing, I think, to stick to the content and use logic and evidence. The definition of a "novel" is "A fictitious prose narrative of book length, typically representing character and action with some degree of realism.". Essentially you are accusing Alan of writing fiction, or lies to put is simply.

He may be wrong and that is fine but we have no reason to think he is intentionally deceiving us. He appears to me to be very sincere and I appreciate that. He also is cautious and freely admits what is opinion and speculation versus fact. This is not at all akin to writing a novel.

Rathna
06-19-2013, 01:55 PM
I don't really see the need for personalizing discussions. It's a better thing, I think, to stick to the content and use logic and evidence. The definition of a "novel" is "A fictitious prose narrative of book length, typically representing character and action with some degree of realism.". Essentially you are accusing Alan of writing fiction, or lies to put is simply.

He may be wrong and that is fine but we have no reason to think he is intentionally deceiving us. He appears to me to be very sincere and I appreciate that. He also is cautious and freely admits what is opinion and speculation versus fact. This is not at all akin to writing a novel.

Mike, I am not alone to love above all data. This Richard Rocca wrote: "Based on Martinez-Cruz (2012), it seems like Hungarian L51* (DYS426=13) is only equal to 1%".
Perhaps he too would be surprised of these data about Catania, which is his Island, and in his map Eastern Sicily seemed less rich of L51 as to Western one.

Alan is a friend.

alan
06-19-2013, 02:16 PM
Alan, you know that I don't like novels and I am seeing that you have some adept. About the origin (by a genetic point of view) of Alto Adige/South Tyrol, I have written many letters to Irene Pichler in the past and I don't repeat like Paganini. I like data, because Genetics is made only by these ones.

Where is the split in Italy of R-L51*?
From Boattini et al. 2013:
Pistoia (Tuscany): 1 out 13 tested= 7,69%
Catania (Sicily): 4 out 52 tested= 7,69%

Italy: 15 out 884 tested= 1,69%

You are making a habit of having a personal dig or claiming some bias or belittling my efforts, something I have had the good manners not to do to you even though your tendency to always come back to your own country in your theories would provide the opportunity to do so.

I have seen L51* and L23XL51 distribution maps and the pattern is pretty strong given the passing of 5000 years or so. I dont make those maps. If they need updated then someone can do that. I leave that to others and just speculate on the archaeological possibilities.

I have already explained that that is the only area where I can contribute. Most people seem to appreciate having someone who will dedicate their expertise and a significant amount of their spare time to this. I generally post links to the papers I am drawing on so others can make their own minds up too. I dont have a fixed model, I know the limitations and merely speculate. I would appreciate it if you dont find that interesting to just ignore my posts or criticise the theory without making me out to be a novelist.

TigerMW
06-19-2013, 02:33 PM
Mike, I am not alone to love above all data. This Richard Rocca wrote: "Based on Martinez-Cruz (2012), it seems like Hungarian L51* (DYS426=13) is only equal to 1%".
Perhaps he too would be surprised of these data about Catania, which is his Island, and in his map Eastern Sicily seemed less rich of L51 as to Western one.

Alan is a friend.

All, I use the brackets and red "Moderator" label to be sure to note when I'm putting that hat on versus blogging as a individual.
[[[Mikewww/Moderator on 06/19/2013: Rathna, the difference is Richard Rocca is bringing up points of logic and data that are on topic without inserting personal commentary. You seem to want to add personal commentary, that unfortunately often has negative connotations.. It's legitimate to talk about some data you are analyzing as long it is not disruptive of the normal flow of conversation (definition of trolling). However, inserting personal commentary that insinuates some one is writing lies or whatever is not useful. It's distracting from the conversation.

Disagreement is fine. Presentation of on topic data and logic is good. Staying on topic is good. Personal criticisms are not useful and not needed. ]]]

alan
06-19-2013, 02:53 PM
Mike, I am not alone to love above all data. This Richard Rocca wrote: "Based on Martinez-Cruz (2012), it seems like Hungarian L51* (DYS426=13) is only equal to 1%".
Perhaps he too would be surprised of these data about Catania, which is his Island, and in his map Eastern Sicily seemed less rich of L51 as to Western one.

Alan is a friend.

Actually I dont disagree there is an east-west as well as a north-south difference in L51*. I was just generalising. The Sicily L51* had already been noted in discussions about beaker networks. I already mentioned that Tuscany had a representation. It still does not invalidate the general picture of mainland Italy as having a cline that is very contrasting with L51XL23. I have already said that I think L51* did its first significant expansion in the Italy-Austria border area in Tyrol. I was just lightly speculating about whether or not it had a present further east. All I did was raise the possibility that the patch in southern Poland could be linked to prospectors looking at the west Carpathians. Without teleport and Captain Kirk as a guide they would have had to cross either Slovakia or Hungary etc at some point in time to link the two places.

alan
06-19-2013, 02:56 PM
My new novel is Harry Pottery and the R1b quest :0)

alan
06-22-2013, 03:19 PM
Has anyone considered the intraclade age of just L23XL51 (Z2105+/Z2103+) against the interclade age of .Z2105+/Z2103+ and L51*? I just wonder if there is a difference. As I have said, I have a suspicion both lines were formed quickly after L23* as there is a lack of true L23*.

MJost
01-03-2015, 07:11 AM
I would like to bump this discussion to include my map of L23>>DF13 Up the Danube river SNP counting placing the block of SNPs called L51 and L11. I have place these blocks and the beginning dates of each block.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9Y3jb2fORNbGZndU9TZjVocHM/view?usp=sharing

Alan, since you had then and still do have, a good handle, how does this play out fitting what you know since this thread finished?

MJost