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Thread: Speculations on relative position of M269 and M73

  1. #1
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    Speculations on relative position of M269 and M73

    M269 and M73 are relatively close brother clades with a common P297 ancestor c. 9000BC. However these two clades are thought to date to around 4000 and 5000BC, implying a barely surviving P297 line or lines in the period 9000BC-4/5000BC. They do seem to significantly overlap in their distribution around the Urals and there is some overlap above noise across a wider area of the steppe.

    Firstly this 4-5000 year period of bare survival of P297* probably tells us something about the economic position of the clade pre-5000BC and as I posted before that is unlikley to be in a zone which experienced a thriving farming culure before 4-5000BC. I also would find it hard to believe that P297* sat in the extreme west of the steppe as that would require an unexplained (albeit not impossible) journey from the farming world to the eastern end of the western steppe in the period 9000-5000BC. M73 is the oldest clade to emerge from P297 and it is virtually absent in the Old Europe farming world or SW Asia (the 1% among Turks is probably due to the well known absorbtion of that clade by Turks in central Asia).

    Indeed, I cannot see M73 itself in its early stages c. 5000BC-3000BC being west of Azov steppe due to its absence in the Balkans despite the steppe waves into the Balkans in 4000-3000BC and later. I think even in that period it must have been already placed at least a little east of the M269/L23 area and that of the immediate P297* ancestor (they didnt exist until dates centred on 4000 and 3500BC according to variance calculations) of that clade. There are a myriad of scenarios in the period 5000-3500BC which could have made M73 and M269 bifurk west and east. However, I think it there is a strong hint that this had happened at some point before or within the 4200-3400BC period. I think that the Balkans evidence is fairly clear that there was already a difference in distribution (not neccessarily a big one) between M73 and M269 by some point c. 4000-3500BC. One put itself in a position to move into the Balkans while the other did not. M73 is older than M269 and even more so in relative to L23 so its not as if it is a purely chronological thing or we might expect the reverse pattern.

    I think this might be teased out a little more and it might be possible to consider the cultural options for such a distancing/splitting of trajectories between M73 and M269/L23 in the period 5000-3000BC.

  2. #2
    I agree that M73 was significantly east of M269. I have no idea why though Eupedia says M73 expanded with Andronovo.

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    Me neither. If the truth be told there is a massive gap between the P25*s and M269/M73, a period that basically seems to have left nothing in the modern population. That period seems to be at least 4-5000 years long. So that is a heck of dark period in its story.

    The best I can say is P25* and upstream was probably at the southern end of the Caspian or close to there in the Palaeolithic. M73 certainly seems to have occurred somewhere north of Iran as it seems to have a virtual absence on the south side of the pontic-caspian area. Several considerations indicate to me that its location in the north was somewhere close to the Urals/north Caspian. It seems to have made that move before the M73 snp occurred, or perhaps just as it occurred c. 5000BC. It never expanded beyond the Steppes and I doubt it expaned west of the Don until much later. M269 is far harder to work out as it and L23xL51 is known from NW Iran, Armenia, the Balkans and Antolia as well as in modest but significant quantities in the north Caucasus and across a lot of eastern-central Europe. Its distribution looks a lot more shattered than M73 and I dont think its possible to pin down a story for it based on modern distribution with confidence due to the lack of any surviving clade filling the at least 5000 years long gap between P25 and M269 SNP i.e there is no P297* as yet. I think the change in population in the Ukraine steppe is the reason for this.

    The best that can be said is that the line leading to M269 and the line leading to M73 departed company at some point between 9000BC and 5000BC. My hunch is that they stayed together as they headed north and in fact I think the lost P297* lineage itself probably headed north. I say that because if it had stayed behind in or around Iran it would surely have been preserved by the population expanding benefits brought by farming to north and north-plateau Iran around 5 or 6000BC. That is after all what seems to have happened to the very upstream forms of R1b in Iran. However, it didnt happen to P297* which suggests me that this entire clade made its move north before farming arrived in the south Caspian area.

    So, to cut a long story short its easiest to see a P297* migration north with both M73 and M269 happening on the north side of the Caspian. M73* once there may have remained relatively stay-home until eastward opportunities arose. M269* probably moved west of the Don, possibly near the north Caucasus or the Dniester area. It is the younger of the two clades and that could be why it was the one to move further from the P297* landing point. That sort of position is probably about the best to explain its overall distribution today IMO even if it is not frequent there now. From a position like that it could access NW Iran, north Mesopotamia, the Caucasus, the Balkans and from there it could access Anatolia.

    I am not read up enough even yet to feel confident about the cultural identies that M73 and M269 may have passed through. I could see M269 being involved as one element in both Maykop and perhaps stredny stog type groups and ending up in the Balkans as a result of the earlier steppe outpourings. The problem I see with M269 is it is M269* that dates to the time of the first steppe movements west and that is now rare except in the west Balkans and to a lesser degree Armenia and an even lesser degree Anatolia. I think this is connected to an east-west movement along the north side of the Pontic-Caspian simply because there are lots of movements west from there around this sort of time that take that route but there are no known significant east-west movements along the south side at this period.

    Lets put it this way, we seemed to have some sort of semi-consensus in previous discussion that P25* was probably located in a late farming area like the south shores of the Caspian. If M269* had just sat there c. 4000BC, something I cannot absolutely rule out although unlikely, how on earth did it move from Iran to the Balkans c. 4000-3000BC by a south pontic-caspian route. is simply no such movement in that period. At that sort of period Kura-Araxes dominated the area from NW Iran to the south Caucasus, eastern Anatolia and the Levant, a culture that is much more likely to be associated with other haplogroups - if any R1b element was involved it would have been the very distant p25 cousins and V88.

    The only other alternative I can think of is that M269* occurred in Caspian Iran around the time farming arrive there and from there it headed north with pre-Maykop c. 4 or 5000BC or the Maykop connection into the north Caucasus and mixed in with steppe groups c. 3500BC. However, that would be too late for it to be involved in the first steppe waves west which started 500 years or more earlier. I do think L23 might have been involved in some way with Maykop, perhaps as the steppe Maykop element and from there got to NW Iran where maykop barrows of that date are known. Its appearance in the north Caucasus, NW iran as well as the Balkans and even the Urals does to me point to a likely position on the steppe but not far from the Caucasus, perhaps near Azov or the Dneiper.

    M73 seems much more likely to have stayed closer to the Urals or north Caspian to me and been mixed with R1a groups although it doesnt seem to have taken part in the westward spill. I personally will stick to my guns and suggest it was part of the Afanasievo group who turned east instead of west. Both the presence around the south Urals and the spread far to the east as far as the borders of China suggest this to me.

    The centre of gravity between M73 and its close cousin M269* and L23XL51 does seem to me to lie in the western steppe.

    Quote Originally Posted by newtoboard View Post
    I agree that M73 was significantly east of M269. I have no idea why though Eupedia says M73 expanded with Andronovo.
    Last edited by alan; 09-06-2013 at 10:41 PM.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    Me neither. If the truth be told there is a massive gap between the P25*s and M269/M73, a period that basically seems to have left nothing in the modern population. That period seems to be at least 4-5000 years long. So that is a heck of dark period in its story.

    The best I can say is P25* and upstream was probably at the southern end of the Caspian or close to there in the Palaeolithic. M73 certainly seems to have occurred somewhere north of Iran as it seems to have a virtual absence on the south side of the pontic-caspian area. Several considerations indicate to me that its location in the north was somewhere close to the Urals/north Caspian. It seems to have made that move before the M73 snp occurred, or perhaps just as it occurred c. 5000BC. It never expanded beyond the Steppes and I doubt it expaned west of the Don until much later. M269 is far harder to work out as it and L23xL51 is known from NW Iran, Armenia, the Balkans and Antolia as well as in modest but significant quantities in the north Caucasus and across a lot of eastern-central Europe. Its distribution looks a lot more shattered than M73 and I dont think its possible to pin down a story for it based on modern distribution with confidence due to the lack of any surviving clade filling the at least 5000 years long gap between P25 and M269 SNP i.e there is no P297* as yet. I think the change in population in the Ukraine steppe is the reason for this.

    The best that can be said is that the line leading to M269 and the line leading to M73 departed company at some point between 9000BC and 5000BC. My hunch is that they stayed together as they headed north and in fact I think the lost P297* lineage itself probably headed north. I say that because if it had stayed behind in or around Iran it would surely have been preserved by the population expanding benefits brought by farming to north and north-plateau Iran around 5 or 6000BC. That is after all what seems to have happened to the very upstream forms of R1b in Iran. However, it didnt happen to P297* which suggests me that this entire clade made its move north before farming arrived in the south Caspian area.

    So, to cut a long story short its easiest to see a P297* migration north with both M73 and M269 happening on the north side of the Caspian. M73* once there may have remained relatively stay-home until eastward opportunities arose. M269* probably moved west of the Don, possibly near the north Caucasus or the Dniester area. It is the younger of the two clades and that could be why it was the one to move further from the P297* landing point. That sort of position is probably about the best to explain its overall distribution today IMO even if it is not frequent there now. From a position like that it could access NW Iran, north Mesopotamia, the Caucasus, the Balkans and from there it could access Anatolia.

    I am not read up enough even yet to feel confident about the cultural identies that M73 and M269 may have passed through. I could see M269 being involved as one element in both Maykop and perhaps stredny stog type groups and ending up in the Balkans as a result of the earlier steppe outpourings. The problem I see with M269 is it is M269* that dates to the time of the first steppe movements west and that is now rare except in the west Balkans and to a lesser degree Armenia and an even lesser degree Anatolia. I think this is connected to an east-west movement along the north side of the Pontic-Caspian simply because there are lots of movements west from there around this sort of time that take that route but there are no known significant east-west movements along the south side at this period.

    Lets put it this way, we seemed to have some sort of semi-consensus in previous discussion that P25* was probably located in a late farming area like the south shores of the Caspian. If M269* had just sat there c. 4000BC, something I cannot absolutely rule out although unlikely, how on earth did it move from Iran to the Balkans c. 4000-3000BC by a south pontic-caspian route. is simply no such movement in that period. At that sort of period Kura-Araxes dominated the area from NW Iran to the south Caucasus, eastern Anatolia and the Levant, a culture that is much more likely to be associated with other haplogroups - if any R1b element was involved it would have been the very distant p25 cousins and V88.

    The only other alternative I can think of is that M269* occurred in Caspian Iran around the time farming arrive there and from there it headed north with pre-Maykop c. 4 or 5000BC or the Maykop connection into the north Caucasus and mixed in with steppe groups c. 3500BC. However, that would be too late for it to be involved in the first steppe waves west which started 500 years or more earlier. I do think L23 might have been involved in some way with Maykop, perhaps as the steppe Maykop element and from there got to NW Iran where maykop barrows of that date are known. Its appearance in the north Caucasus, NW iran as well as the Balkans and even the Urals does to me point to a likely position on the steppe but not far from the Caucasus, perhaps near Azov or the Dneiper.

    M73 seems much more likely to have stayed closer to the Urals or north Caspian to me and been mixed with R1a groups although it doesnt seem to have taken part in the westward spill. I personally will stick to my guns and suggest it was part of the Afanasievo group who turned east instead of west. Both the presence around the south Urals and the spread far to the east as far as the borders of China suggest this to me.

    The centre of gravity between M73 and its close cousin M269* and L23XL51 does seem to me to lie in the western steppe.
    I agree M73 is Northern but it could have been stuck somewhere in the Inner Asian mountain corridor or South Siberia rather than the steppe. Then again the steppe extends very east and I could see M73 expanding from somewhere in Mongolia. I doubt it was part of Afanasievo as the Xiaohe Tomb Complex showed nothing but R1a. I doubt those are Indo-Iranian/Andronovo derived samples because those would have picked up a wide mix of other West Eurasian groups had they been part of an Andronovo expansion into the Tarim. Not to mention the lack of mtdna U and T make it unlikely they were Andronovo derived. Plus they are way too far east. I could see it as part of Afanasievo if Afanasievo experienced an R1a bottleneck on their journey to the Tarim from South Siberia. That could have left M73 behind in Siberia but explain why the Tarim samples came out R1a. It would also leave M73 in a position where it could later expand with Turks into the Tarim and Central Asia.

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    I just cannot make sense of a Mongolia origin for M73. It shares a P297 ancestor with M269 c. 9000BC and probably a P25 deeper ancestor most likely around north Iran. I just cannot see any evidence of a movement from the likes of northern Iran to Mongolia or the like in the 9000-5000BC timeframe that would be required to explain an origin for M73 that far east. That sort of move simply doesnt exist in the archaeological record. A move from Iran to near the Caspian or Urals in P297* form with the M73 SNP occuring there and a later move along the eastern steppe with Afanasievo is pretty well the only answer I can find. We simply do not have enough data to rule this out. In fact no actual Afanasievo DNA has been tested, just suspected descendant groups and its not clearcut. Cemeteries were probably clan based and each may be dominated by a single lineage so we may simply not have hit the right one yet. I will stick to the Afanasievo theory because it just fits too well to ignore and there are few alternatives.

    I still havent completely given up on the idea that M269 and L23 had something to do with the NW Iran-north Caucasus-steppes links in Maykop and even pre-Maykop. Mainly because it would nicely explain parts of its distribution. However, that could just be part of the story and it could have been involved in other groups. It was a complex culture that may have had steppe, farming and Iranian elements and its hard to be sure which element M269 derived from.

    Farming reached both the north Caucqsus and Caspian Iran around the sort of time that P297 left an impact in the form of M269 and M73. So, its not totally impossible that P297* remained in the Iran area until 5-6000BC and has some link to the uptake of farming in the south-west Caspian. Or perhaps SOME P297* stayed behind longer and took a different route from other lines in that clade. The problem is the long gap between P297* and its downstream clades. That gap pretty well corresponds with the Neolithic period in SW Asia. So, it still feels like a lineage that went straight from hunting gathering to a very late Neolithic/copper age phase.

    A lot is unclear but the evidence of DNA combined with archaeological considerations does seem to be boxing in the origin area of M269 and M73 to the Cirum-Caspian area or very near around 5000BC. This makes a lot more sense than a location to the west in say east Anatolia or Mesopotamia or the Levant given of its apparent lack of participation in the Neolithic of Europe prior to this indicated by its phylogeny, dating and its lack in ancient European Neolithic DNA.

    Quote Originally Posted by newtoboard View Post
    I agree M73 is Northern but it could have been stuck somewhere in the Inner Asian mountain corridor or South Siberia rather than the steppe. Then again the steppe extends very east and I could see M73 expanding from somewhere in Mongolia. I doubt it was part of Afanasievo as the Xiaohe Tomb Complex showed nothing but R1a. I doubt those are Indo-Iranian/Andronovo derived samples because those would have picked up a wide mix of other West Eurasian groups had they been part of an Andronovo expansion into the Tarim. Not to mention the lack of mtdna U and T make it unlikely they were Andronovo derived. Plus they are way too far east. I could see it as part of Afanasievo if Afanasievo experienced an R1a bottleneck on their journey to the Tarim from South Siberia. That could have left M73 behind in Siberia but explain why the Tarim samples came out R1a. It would also leave M73 in a position where it could later expand with Turks into the Tarim and Central Asia.

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