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Thread: M269* and L23XL51 - modern pattern remnant of different waves?

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    M269* and L23XL51 - modern pattern remnant of different waves?

    Sometimes the relatively modest showing of M269 and L23 in the western steppe is seen as evidence of a non-steppe origin. However, it must always be recalled that while M73 is old enough to have taken part (but didnt), M269 had only just come into existence when the first steppe waves moved into the Balkans c. 4000BC. So, its modest showing in the steppe should not be a surprise (and Ukraine steppe population replacement in modern times was extreme too). Indeed it is inevitable if the variance dating is correct. In fact, you could argue that M269* coming into existence may be a marker of new expansion opportunities it just didnt have in its long pre-M269 P297* phase 9000-4000BC. It suddenly came from nowhere.


    It is interesting that M269* peaks in west Balkans groups with a likely history further east nearer the Black Sea end of the Balkans. Is this is a remanant of a particularly early wave when M269 was a very new player and L23 either was yet to come or a newbee with few numbers? Its a pity that there is a lot of mystery about the origin of the M269 and L23-rich IE speakers of the south and west Balkans and likely Bronze Age displacements from other areas to the north and east. It would be nice to try and tease this out a bit more.

    I suspect that groups with expansion dates c. 4000BC relate to the new opportunities gained when they nibbled into the farming world and prior to that may have remained at a barely-surviving level. The other driver may have been the wheel and adaption to mobile pastoralism opening up the steppe areas between the rivers - that is of course more crucial in a steppe environment and usually dated slighly later c. 3500BC. Maybe the M269* group that expanded mostly in the eastern edge of Old Europe were one of the pre-wheel element whose expansion was essentially down to the new lands the steppe peoples aquired around 4000BC there. The dates fit very well and I think the M269* pattern can be explained in that way.

    Could the much larger and more widespread L23* group relate to a few M269* people who stayed behind and didnt get the opportunity to expand in that the first M269* wave west had? I think its entirely possible. They, like their P297* predecessors may have remained in an area where they were essentially only just maintaining population and so only a very limited amount of M269* survived behind in numbers that would leave a permanent mark.

    Eventually L23* appears c. 3500BC and I think this is significant. The appearance, survival and takeoff of this line may mark a significant change in opportunities and fortune. At that sort of date further steppe waves headed west into the farming zone and again maybe that was the trigger for the expansion of the L23 clade. While we rightly can question ballpark absolute central dates for clades, there is no doubt that an M269* clade expanding could by definition happen before an L23XL51 one and areas where M269* expanded are suggestive of a date where there was no or less competition from L23XL51.

    I would suggest that the best archaeological fit for L23XL51 is being part of the expansion west a little later than the M269* group at a time when that lineage had grown and M269* had diminished and certainly lost the no-competion advantage it had in pre-L23 times. That time difference is usually suggested to be c. 500 years in variance terms. A date around 3500BC give or take a century or so would make a lot of sense.

    A clear distinction between L23XL51 and M269* can be seen in numbers, distribution and age of coming into existence. That is undeniable. M269* is older by definition (even if its surviving lineages are not), it had a lesser impact and its remnants above noise level have a different and more limited distribution. I think this all fits well as a kind of package which mutually supports itself. M269* today has an odd pattern and has been noted only in reasonable numbers among Kosovar Albanians and Armenians and also to a lesser degree among Anatolians and Poles if I remember correctly. The frequencies of L23XL51 and M269* do not seem well correlated. I have heard that with the exception of Kosovars and Poles elevated frequencies are not correlated. I think this is probably further evidence that they were two separate waves that only partially overlapped.

    Again it is a pity that the backstory of the Albanians is poorly understood. I understand they have been put in a Balkans group with Armenians, Greeks and even Anatolians by some. However, they were also, unlike the Greeks, Satemised. Furthemore the Albanian language has borrowed all its maritime terms for other languages suggesting their Adriatic location only came about in later times. In general a position further east and an ancestral land-orientated herding economy is implied in their language. This could be taken as evidence of M269* having had a more easterly location at one time. Its presence among Armenians and to a lesser degree Anatolians could be due to a common earlier ancestry in the eastern part of the Balkans. Certainly an east Balkans expansion of the M269* lineage would probably best explain its overall distribution today.

    The Albanians also share in common with much of the Balkans and the wider circumpontic area a higher rate of L23XL51. Given the stronger evidence of movement into the Balkans (and then Anatolia) in the period 4000BC to after 3000BC and the very weak to absent evidence of a movement FROM Anatolia to the Balkans or from the Balkans into the steppe in this period it seems very likely to me that L23 moved from (or via) the steppes into the Balkans. Its impact was overlapping with and far more extensive than that of M269*. It looks like a bigger, slightly later wave that was far more extensive. L23XL51 gets dated often to c. 3500BC. That would place it among the post-Suvorovo sort of intrusions from the steppes. It also matches the fact that the waves into the Balkans after 3500BC were far more extensive and large than the geographically and numberically limited Suvorovo waves.

    Whatever the archaeological explanation for L23XL51 (even if we see Armenians and Anatolians as overspill from the Bakans - which I do) it has to explain an impact across the whole of the Balkans and east-central Europe as well as a presence in the steppes, Urals and northern Caucasus foreland. Now, short of involking back migrations into the steppes from the farming world (which is not well attested -the big west-east wave of that sort in this period was across the forrest steppes) that distribution is an indicator that L23XL51 had remained behind and expanded from a position fairly far east in the steppe or the north Caucasus. It seems most likely to me it was incorportated into the big waves west from the eastern end of the western steppe and north Caucasus after 3500BC. The age of L23XL51 c. 3500BC suggests to me a link with the arrival of the wheel and mobility which would have obviously aided a wider expansion than would have been available in 4000BC (the time when M269 came into being). In addition the CMP network expanded across the steppes at this time from its older Maykop base, something that is almost certainly also related to gaining wheels.

    We also should note as an aside that M73 never made it to the Balkans. This and its modern distribution would make a position fairly east in the western steppe or the Caucasus steppe foreland pretty likely.
    Last edited by alan; 07-17-2013 at 01:50 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    ... It is interesting that M269* peaks in west Balkans groups with a likely history further east nearer the Black Sea end of the Balkans. Is this is a remanant of a particularly early wave when M269 was a very new player and L23 either was yet to come or a newbee with few numbers? ...
    I think this possibility is real. As you know, I strongly disagree with any assumptions that higher modern frequencies are correlated with origin or launch locations (for ancient populations).

    Given my position on frequency and the fact M269* diversity is low compared to L23xL51, I think it is quite possible that M269* in the Balkans is really an accumulation/destination point for M269*. This would be akin to L21 in Ireland. The wave of advance model seems to apply nicely to L11 subclades so I think the characteristics of the M269* cousins could easily be similar to L11 - and therefore the wave model applies.

    BTW, I'm applying the same thinking to L51xL11. Richard has shown up some nice frequency charts for L51xL11 which shows higher frequencies along the Rhine and the south of France. Recognize I'm speculating, but I think odds are good this area was the accumulation/destination for a wave of advance of early L51.

    I'm asking for everyone to consider the wave of advance model, but not just from a single wave and single allele (L21, P312, L11, L51, M269) perspective. The cultural advances, pauses, integrations, advances, etc. were no doubt complex. The trail of alleles is likely similar. Some will think this is just random and useless speculation, however, at least at the general level, we have known flows of cultural advancements (i.e. farming, dairying, horse-riding, metal working, etc., etc.) from east to west.
    Last edited by TigerMW; 07-17-2013 at 03:59 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post
    I think this possibility is real. As you know, I strongly disagree with any assumptions that higher modern frequencies are correlated with origin or launch locations (for ancient populations).

    Given my position on frequency and the fact M269* diversity is low compared to L23xL51, I think it is quite possible that M269* in the Balkans is really an accumulation/destination point for M269*. This would be akin to L21 in Ireland. The wave of advance model seems to apply nicely to L11 subclades so I think the characteristics of the M269* cousins could easily be similar to L11 - and therefore the wave model applies.

    BTW, I'm applying the same thinking to L51xL11. Richard has shown up some nice frequency charts for L51xL11 which shows higher frequencies along the Rhine and the south of France. Recognize I'm speculating, but I think odds are good this area was the accumulation/destination for a wave of advance of early L51.

    I'm asking for everyone to consider the wave of advance model, but not just from a single wave and single allele (L21, P312, L11, L51, M269) perspective. The cultural advances, pauses, integrations, advances, etc. were no doubt complex. The trail of alleles is likely similar. Some will think this is just random and useless speculation, however, at least at the general level, we have known flows of cultural advancements (i.e. farming, dairying, horse-riding, metal working, etc., etc.) from east to west.
    I certainly think the Balkans was a destination for M269* but it is possible given the proposed date of that SNP and the main period of flow into the Balkans from the steppe that it had not been around for long before it arrived in the Balkans. This is even more true for L23 if it only dated to 3500BC or thereabouts. That is after the collapse of Old Europe and in the secondary phase of steppe intrusions.

    You are right that if a model of the appearance of R1b in the Balkans 4000-3000BC is adopted (which seems very likely), the integration period which also ran from 4000BC to 3000BC and beyond needs deeper consideration IMO. That needs IMO to focus on the Balkans and Danube area and the sort of new cultures that sprang up in the wake of the fall of Old Europe and the steppe intrusions. Its probably fair to say that most successor cultures in the Balkans and east-central Europe in the period 4000-3000BC or so were hybrids to at least some degree. I personally have not looked deep enough into those cultures because I have been primarily focussed on trying to work out the most likely position of R1b before 4 of 5000BC. I have now convinced myself (always a good start) that the coincidence of the appearance from nowhere of new R1b lineages in the period 5000-3500BC after 4000 years doing very little must be linked to an arrival from the steppe/north Caucasus zone which is the main theme of archaeology for most of that period. Alternatives such as out of Anatolia etc are completely unattested in the relevant period. So my mind is made up now. I had to read an awful lot of stuff over the last year to finally feel convinced.

    Personally I think the next stage for me is to read as much as I can into possible link cultures between the the Dniester and the Alps. There is a period about 3500-3000BC I want to look at. The CMP model, Jean's Stelae model etc are an option. However, now we know L51* was significant in the pre-Slavic/pre-Germanic populations of Austrian Tyrol, I want to read up on the links between Austria and the hybrid steppes-farmers culture of the 3500-3000BC period in the Balkans/Danube area. I have not done enough reading on this to feel I can contribute much beyond the CMP idea which is basically a variant of Jean's Stelae model. Clearly L23XL51 has a large zone of significant showing today The problem of L51* is a lack of a trail of true L23* or to be more accurate L23* clades which doesnt have SNPs that pre-date L51.

    Actually any L23XL51 clades that do not have downstream clades that pre-date L51 could be ancestral to L51 as SNPs that post-date that could have subsequently occurred in the ancestral line (in fact its almost inevitable if we had enough SNP resolution. Do we know if any of the L23XL51 clades could be younger than L51? I think that is a thread in itself!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post
    I think this possibility is real. As you know, I strongly disagree with any assumptions that higher modern frequencies are correlated with origin or launch locations (for ancient populations).

    Given my position on frequency and the fact M269* diversity is low compared to L23xL51, I think it is quite possible that M269* in the Balkans is really an accumulation/destination point for M269*. This would be akin to L21 in Ireland. The wave of advance model seems to apply nicely to L11 subclades so I think the characteristics of the M269* cousins could easily be similar to L11 - and therefore the wave model applies.

    BTW, I'm applying the same thinking to L51xL11. Richard has shown up some nice frequency charts for L51xL11 which shows higher frequencies along the Rhine and the south of France. Recognize I'm speculating, but I think odds are good this area was the accumulation/destination for a wave of advance of early L51.

    I'm asking for everyone to consider the wave of advance model, but not just from a single wave and single allele (L21, P312, L11, L51, M269) perspective. The cultural advances, pauses, integrations, advances, etc. were no doubt complex. The trail of alleles is likely similar. Some will think this is just random and useless speculation, however, at least at the general level, we have known flows of cultural advancements (i.e. farming, dairying, horse-riding, metal working, etc., etc.) from east to west.
    Regarding wave of advance, I think the early R1b clades show how a wave could end up not looking like one on a map. A bunch of P297* guys about 4000BC with one leader with the new M269 SNP (and perhaps a few cousin nobles of the same new clade) could spread leaving very little of an M269* trail. Long term the small royal groups lineage expands while the P297* of the more generalised followers fades away. The effect is no wave-like trail.

    Similarly, a slightly later group of P297*, M269* peoples c. 3500BC led by a new L23* lineage spread out. Again long term the L23* aristo lineage expands while the others fade away. Again no wave like pattern would be left and it would lead to a confusing pattern. Maybe the L23* elite experiences fission as branches sought to find their own areas of dominance. Again L23-derived subclades spring from these splinters which may have moved in multiple directions.

    And so on. This is essentially what you see in Gaelic clans in Ireland. In many ways that system resembles the reconstructed PIE one and resembles descriptions writers make of the PIE period with lineage expansion, nested clientship etc. My main point is that this sort of process can leave a pattern that doesnt look like a classic wave model. Instead it can look like geographically spaced seperate lineage take off due to the process tending to hide the links between.

  5. #5
    Can you prove the Timber Grave replaced R1b populations? Can you also prove North Iranians/Assyrians/Iraqi Arabs have Balkan origins? Or explain why this doesn't fit with Armenian autosomal DNA? Or why the groups mentioned above don't exhibit other Balkan lineages? All I read was a bunch of speculation. You seeing something a certain way does not make it true.
    Last edited by newtoboard; 07-18-2013 at 11:44 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by newtoboard View Post
    Can you prove the Timber Grave replaced R1b populations? Can you also prove North Iranians/Assyrians/Iraqi Arabs have Balkan origins? Or explain why this doesn't fit with Armenian autosomal DNA? Or why the groups mentioned above don't exhibit other Balkan lineages? All I read was a bunch of speculation. You seeing something a certain way does not make it true.
    Newtoboard, please consider that most of us here are searching for answers and are reviewing data and evaluating alternatives. No high burden of proof will be met in these kinds of discussions and.... none is required! Disagreement is fine but please don't be flustered.

    If you have a counter-hypothesis, please propose it rather than just throwing out challenges. Please bring some new information to the table.

    I guess I should ask you if you can prove how Armenian autosomal DNA fits your assertions about M269* and L23xL51. I won't do that though, because I would not insist on a high burden of proof.

    I am very interested in evidence and logic, though so please explain your point of view:

    1. Why do you bring Timber Grave (or Srubna) into the discussion? I haven't seen it mentioned prior to this on this thread.

    2. Are you saying all North Iranians/Assyrians/Iraqi Arabs do not have Balkan origins? If so, how do you know and where do they come from? What Balkan lineages do you think are lacking in Armenians that show this and why are they important?

    2. Please explain how Armenian autosomal DNA is important to M269 and L23xL51 and how that affects the possible alternatives.
    Last edited by TigerMW; 07-18-2013 at 02:10 PM.

  7. #7
    Because the replacements refer to Slavs displacing Crimean Tatars but they were the ones who displaced Timber Grave groups (who were most likely not R1b carriers).

    The Balkan lineages are not lacking in Armenians (I'm referring to I2, E-V13 and J2b here). They are lacking in Assyrians and Iraqi Arabs (while R1b is not lacking in them at all).

    Because Armenian autosomal DNA is not much different than Azeri/Iranian/Kurdish/Assyrian autosomal DNA which is what you would expect if they were Balkan people living in West Asia.

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    Its all speculation , all of us, so noone can prove anything. I am just saying that the sudden appearance of a major block of L23XL51 and some M269* dated by variance to 4000 and 3500BC (whose biggest block in both cases is around the Balkans) with no predecessor lineages covering the previous 5000 years or more does almost perfectly fit the date of the movement of the steppe peoples into the Balkans area. It also fits the sudden rise from very little of both R1a and R1b. The similarity is striking even if the final positions are not. That is really the main point I am making. Its also true there is no comparible out of Asia Minor movement into the Balkans in this period.

    Remeber (read Anthony on this) that the steppes groups were moving for almost 1000 years before Yamnaya into the Balkans. Do you seriously believe that all the steppe groups from the Dneister to the Urals from 4500BC-3000BC were R1a? Remember that most R1b and R1a comes from just a few men living around this time.

    As for explaining groups of middle eastern L23 folks you could ask the same about R1a clades. There has just been a massive amount of movement in the middle east and all sorts of groups. Linking the Armenians, Anatolians etc to the Balkans is not some weird made up personal theory. It is the mainstream view of linguists, historians and archaeologists. So, I refer you to them. I didnt make up these ideas. I think most would feel this was a small male elite and not some sort of major population movement (no evidence of such in archaeology) that would have an autosomal impact. I think R1b groups may have operated a little differently from deep steppe groups because it appears that they were longer in contact and longer blending with other non-steppe groups and may have been interested in controlling nodal trade points etc as a means of power and so may have operated in a different way from folk movements of pastoralists. Its also important to note from an autosomal point of view that by the suggested time Anatolians, Armenians etc reached a secondary home in Anatolia and adjacent, they could have been living in the Balkans for 1000 and in the latter case several 1000 years so its unlikely their autosomal DNA would look very steppic anyway. Many have commented that the hittites look middle eastern on their depictions on art. If that is real then its evidence that their autosomal DNA was not steppic anymore. So, I just think autosomal DNA is very limited in tracing male elites. They could lose much of their autosomal DNA in a century or two, let alone thousands of years.

    As for north Iranians, I have already said they are a potential source for P297. In fact I posted a thread suggesting this. They have recently been linked as a crucial influence on Maykop. The movements may have been two way and Maykop barrows have been found in NW Iran (Lake Ummia??). R1b could have flowed either way between those areas. Maykop too was apparenty connected stronly in trade (via Iran rather than directly through the Caucasus) to the Uruk expansion groups so there is an obvious potential route for flow of R1b into Mesopotamia. Again this is around the correct time too for the age of M269. The reason I think that was a flow from Iran or the north Caucasus INTO Mesopotamia rather than out of it is simply that Mesopotamia is the hearland of farming and you would not expect close to zero R1b clades in that area which had been agricultural for 4 or 5000 years before any substantial R1b clades existed. On the other hand the north Caucasus and northern Iran did take up farming far later much closer to the rise of clades like M269, L23 and M73 c. 5000-3500BC. So I hope I have answered your questions as to how M269 may have ended up in northern Iran and among Assyrians.

    Asia Minor as an origin point would only become an option if M269 was 2000 years older though. So it does depend on variance being correct. However if we pushed back R1b clades 2000 years the same would be true of R1a. The option of advanced dairy pastoralism that arose around the area where Turkey meets Bulgaria c. 6000BC and entered the latter c. 5200BC has also been discussed but at the moment doesnt fir the variance dating for L23XL51. Elements from the culture in Bulgaria appear to have filtered into Cuc-Tryp among others. So its a possibility except it seems too early. The other thing against this is this kind of dairy pastoralism (discovered by Evershed's analysis of Neolithic pots) had reach even as far as Britain by 4000BC. That is a lot earlier than the date of the typical P312 clades which according to the variance gurus date to more like 2500BC.

    Quote Originally Posted by newtoboard View Post
    Can you prove the Timber Grave replaced R1b populations? Can you also prove North Iranians/Assyrians/Iraqi Arabs have Balkan origins? Or explain why this doesn't fit with Armenian autosomal DNA? Or why the groups mentioned above don't exhibit other Balkan lineages? All I read was a bunch of speculation. You seeing something a certain way does not make it true.

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    I really do not understand what you mean about timber grave. My thoughts on that have nothing to do with R1a timber grave people replacing R1b pre-timber grave people. Its just not that monolithic. Mr M269 and Mr L23 were just one person in 4000 and 3500BC respectively. Same with Mr R1a clades who are also mainly from a few people of the early steppe migration era. So yes a person (or more likely a small, then new, dynasty of cousins to a few degress) can easily be replaced, move or die out. Its not about whole populations of M269 or L23 or R1a when you get back to the period. All we have today is descendants of a few men who lived then. We do not know who their followers were and what sort of yDNA mix they were. So, there is no need to cite entire cultures replacing other cultures. Patterns could form just by one small elite of cousins turning west, east, north or south in a fairly random way.

    Even if we were talking about cultures, there are dozens of culture across the steppe and bordering it in the period 5000-3000BC and they stretch across an area from east to west over a huge zone the width of western Europe. It has even been shown that even single early steppe groups 5500BC onwards contained various different types of people according to craniology as well as varying between different cultures. So a mono-clade picture just does not fit what was going on in the steppe. Just one example is Skelya, sometimes seen as an elite of the Stredy Stog culture contained males with a real mix of what would traditionally be called steppe and Neolithic farmer types which might relate to their role as a Dnieper based contact between the Cuc-Tryp and Balko-Carpathian cultures and the deeper steppe groups. That is the very group who have been seen by most as the source of Suvorovo migrants. So chances are they were a mix of haplogroups. I recall seeing some similar observations about Repin etc. So, even at a crude level the idea of a mono-haplogroup steppe population is completely unlikely. You can have elite lineages of R1a and R1b spreading their Y DNA massively from 4000BC onwards when the main clades start to branch but prior to that the evidence is that these elites ruled mixed groups. This was probably highly variable too across the steppe in space and time.

    As for proof, yoou know the ancient DNA situation. There are no available samples from any of the cultures that spread west in this timeframe, or Maykop. We just have later samples that people try and make deductions from by tracking back in time. That is of course totally unsafe. The steppes is an area about the width of western Europe that featured loads of cultures in the relevant period. We would need hundreds of samples to work out absence of a lineage in the area. So, I wouldnt hold my breath waiting on that. It will take a long long time unless a ton of money is thrown at it.

    Quote Originally Posted by newtoboard View Post
    Can you prove the Timber Grave replaced R1b populations? Can you also prove North Iranians/Assyrians/Iraqi Arabs have Balkan origins? Or explain why this doesn't fit with Armenian autosomal DNA? Or why the groups mentioned above don't exhibit other Balkan lineages? All I read was a bunch of speculation. You seeing something a certain way does not make it true.
    Last edited by alan; 07-18-2013 at 05:46 PM.

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    Probable Mongolian L51*

    Now that the SMGF database is again accessible, I have attached a screenshot of 3 probable Mongolian L51* in that database. Along with the DYS426=13 characteristic of L51*, two of them have DYS385b=15 and one has DYS464=15-15-17-18, off-modal alleles shared with kit 50168 of Croatia, who is known to be L51* .

    By the way, kit 50168 is also mtDNA F1b1. He belongs to the often-described mtDNA F of Croatia. His nearest mtDNA neighbor (3 mutations difference on full sequence) is someone geographically from Turkey but with an apparently Armenian surname (-ian). Could this suggest that Armenians really did migrate to the Caucasus from the Balkans?
    Attached Images Attached Images

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