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Thread: Iain McDonald's New P312 Analysis

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    Iain McDonald's New P312 Analysis

    Dr. McDonald sent out a group email this morning that he has completed his initial phase of dating P312 and clades, applying the same method he used for U106.

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    Here is the link to his P312 Tree.

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    Link to all of McDonald's human genetic related work (U106 and P312)
    http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/~mcdonald/genetics.html

    And his newly released
    List of the ages derived for R1b-P312 clades, including their 95% confidence intervals.
    http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/~mcdonald/ge...312/table.html
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    It will be interesting to see what future carbon dating tests reveal.

    My estimated founder dates still haven't moved much:

    DF13= 4,500 years +/- 200yrs (founder location theory modern Belgium)
    L21= 4,900 years +/- 200 yrs (founder location theory modern Rheine region Germany)
    P312= 5,500 years +/- 300 yrs (possibly modern Romania)

    George

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    I think you should move your P312 likely point of origin east onto the Pontic steppe.

    5,500 years +/- 300 yrs predates Yamnaya in Romania. You'd be getting into Gimbutas' Kurgan I and II periods.

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    This (from his site) looks funny:

    The table below gives a "best guess" at a convergence date, but the true date could be anywhere within the stated 95% confidence interval (and even then only with 95% certainty).
    Clade\t Best guess 95% confidence interval
    P312 3155 BC (3898 BC — 2568 BC)
    DF19 2747 BC (3596 BC — 1773 BC)
    DF87 1159 AD (432 AD — 1602 AD)
    BY19316 1589 AD (1136 AD — 1857 AD)
    The first split under DF19 is between Z302/DF87 and DF88. Usually Z302 and DF87 are grouped together, but DF88 is clearly FAR older (even 6DRIF23 from ~200AD is many subclades below DF88).
    So does that imply that while Z302 may be about as old as DF88, that every known line of Z302 also has a common ancestor (DF87) from ~1100AD?
    R1b>M269>L23>L51>L11>P312>DF19>DF88>FGC11833 >S4281>S4268>Z17112>BY44243

    Ancestors: Francis Cooke (M223/I2a2a) b1583; Hester Mahieu (Cooke) (J1c2 mtDNA) b.1584; Richard Warren (E-M35) b1578; Elizabeth Walker (Warren) (H1j mtDNA) b1583;
    John Mead (I2a1/P37.2) b1634; Rev. Joseph Hull (I1, L1301+ L1302-) b1595; Benjamin Harrington (M223/I2a2a-Y5729) b1618; Joshua Griffith (L21>DF13) b1593;
    John Wing (U106) b1584; Thomas Gunn (DF19) b1605; Hermann Wilhelm (DF19) b1635

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    Quote Originally Posted by rms2 View Post
    I think you should move your P312 likely point of origin east onto the Pontic steppe.

    5,500 years +/- 300 yrs predates Yamnaya in Romania. You'd be getting into Gimbutas' Kurgan I and II periods.
    I'm thinking right dates... late Western Black Sea late Cernavoda culture. Only my personal theory with the evidence I've seen for P312 with a fast move west with the majority of P312 taken the more southern route and the majority of U106 taking the more northern route.

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    These date estimates makes DF27 the grand papa of P312, which is interesting, and not at all surprising.

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    The "best guess" age for U152 seems to be far too young compared to its brother clade DF27 (both of which share ZZ11). Surely they didn't originate 300 years apart. Furthermore, that same "best guess" age for U152 also places it extremely close to the age of its subclade L2.

    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893 View Post
    Link to all of McDonald's human genetic related work (U106 and P312)
    http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/~mcdonald/genetics.html

    And his newly released
    http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/~mcdonald/ge...312/table.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by kinman View Post
    The "best guess" age for U152 seems to be far too young compared to its brother clade DF27 (both of which share ZZ11). Surely they didn't originate 300 years apart. Furthermore, that same "best guess" age for U152 also places it extremely close to the age of its subclade L2.
    I brought this very issue up to Dr. McDonald last month.

    His response
    I will also draw attention to the uncertainties, which are an integral part of the analysis, but unfortunately one of the hardest parts to communicate accurately to a non-scientific audience. The two entries for U152 and DF27 are:
    Clade Best guess 95% confidence interval
    U152 2737 BC (3320 BC — 2233 BC)
    DF27 3028 BC (3741 BC — 2423 BC)
    So the "best guess" lies within a possible range that spans many centuries. While ages do correlate with each other within the range of uncertainty, the accuracy of the BigY tests generally isn't sufficient to make the distinction between which of these came first. It takes a more extensive test, probably along the lines of the Oxford Nanopore tests that are still under development.
    McDonald emphasized that one should pay more attention to the date range rather than best guess date based on the uncertainty involved.

    The take away for me is that the overlap of date ranges that DF27 and U152 share i.e. 3320 BC to 2423 BC (we can move 2423 BC back to no later than 2512 BC due to the known RISE563 date).

    This tells me that DF27 and U152 probably formed in the 3320 BC to ~2700 BC range...2700 instead of 2512 BC because I doubt we hit the lottery and RISE563 was the original man with U152 SNP mutation.
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 07-24-2017 at 07:02 PM.
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