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Thread: P312** (the real deal) (P312+ U152- L21- DF27- DF19- L238- DF99-)

  1. #1
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    P312** (the real deal) (P312+ U152- L21- DF27- DF19- L238- DF99-)

    I thought it would be helpful for those few of us who are interested to have a thread which relates to the L238 subclade and the P312** (negative for L21,U152,DF27,DF19,L238) paragroup. There are various threads for the other more numerous P312 subclades, but these two groups, probably because they are both small in number, are generally neglected. I have been keeping a close eye on both groups, and there are some new developments worthy of reporting. I also have reason to hope that some new SNPs under P312 will be publicly identified in the not too distant future, and that the process of breaking down P312** into new subclades will finally begin.
    Last edited by TigerMW; 09-26-2013 at 04:37 AM. Reason: Moving L238 posts to a single thread

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  3. #2
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    When the P312** group was still quite small, there were some who tried to argue, rather unconvincingly I thought, that they all shared a common origin and subclade. The list has now grown to about 35, and their origins and STR patterns are quite diverse. I have no doubt that the group includes several different subclades with quite distinct distributions and presumably histories.

    I have looked through this group trying to find patterns of off modal marker values based on the methods of Ken Nordtvedt, who so succesfully identified many different R1b varities, most of which have since been connected with distinguishing SNPs. I don't pretend to have his abilities, and a database of 35 makes the process much easier than the amount of data he had to deal with.

    While I have found other possibilities, there is one variety I feel very confident about. Five different people on the P312** list share a number of nine different off modal values. All have English or Welsh surnames. A further investigation showed a similar pattern to be present in a number of different surnames in the Wales-Cymru DNA project (see Ysearch DB3PX). At first I thought there were two different groups which shared a common origin, one English and one Welsh. Now however I have found someone with a Welsh surname who matches all nine off modals exactly. He has already tested negative for L21, U152 and DF19 (I think it is fairly safe to rule out L238 in this case). He now has a DF27 test pending, and I have no doubt he will be negative for that as well, which will add him to the P312** list.

    The nine off modals in question are:
    392 = 14 (this value seems to be universal in this variety)
    449 > 29
    464c = 16
    464d = 18
    456 < 16
    447 = 24
    442 = 11
    444 = 11
    390 = 23 (especially common in the Welsh surname group- most of the English surnames have the modal 24 there)

    392 = 14 by itself is rare in R1b, being found in less than 10% of examples. I do not suggest than anyone who has that value is likely to be part of this group. However I think anyone who has four or five of the above off modals is quite likely to be part of this variety, especially if they have a Welsh or English origin.

    Because of the predominant connection with Welsh and English surnames, it is tempting to assign a Brythonic origin for this variety. However I cannot rule out that it is also found on the continent, so like L21, this may be a group that originated on the continent and migrated to and expanded in Britain. I have yet to find an Irish or Scottish example, but they may exist.

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    I mentioned this sometime ago on the molgen forum, but it may be worth repeating here.

    One of the first things I noticed about the P312** list is the very high frequency who have the otherwise rare 389i = 12. This occurs in less than 5% of R1b. With 34 on the P312** list, one should expect to see only one or two with that value. Instead it appears in 15 of the 34, or 44%. I do not believe this is merely due to coincidence. While I don't see a great deal in common otherwise between all those with that rare value, my suspicion is that there is one or more unidentified subclades within P312** where 389i = 12 is common if not modal.

    Of these 15 with 389i =12, nearly half (7) also have 391 = 10. What the latter value isn't that rare by itself, the combination of those two off modals certainly is extremely rare, and it is far more common in the P312** list than one would expect from random chance. I don't think two off modals are sufficient to identify a variety, and this combination does appear in other P312 subclades, but I believe it is worth keeping an eye on.

    Of the seven with those two values, I have identified three who share a total of seven different off modals. I have additionally found several others who closely match this same pattern, and none of them have terminal SNPs beyond P312. I am keeping this one under my hat for the present.

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    Is my brother on your list? He is: U152- U106- SRY2627- P66- M65- M37- M222- M153- L21- DF27- DF19-.

    We haven't tested for anything else so far, just waiting for more direction, watching to see how things go.
    He is Kit # N47555, Penna.
    Thanks for starting this Golden Hind.

  7. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by R. Walker View Post
    Is my brother on your list? He is: U152- U106- SRY2627- P66- M65- M37- M222- M153- L21- DF27- DF19-.

    We haven't tested for anything else so far, just waiting for more direction, watching to see how things go.
    He is Kit # N47555, Penna.
    Thanks for starting this Golden Hind.
    For Morley 2013 Penna (Italian) is the unique so far certain P312**. The others "may belong to one of the non-Geno-tested sister clades" (p. 3)


    R1b1a2a1a1–1 PF856 R (1/1)
    1419 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1N24262
    1420 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1R1b1a2a1a2 P312/S116 (192/525)
    1421
    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    104079?, 134765?, 180710?, 191094?, 197578?, 252516?, 26157?, 266463?, 27064?, 272715?, 49328?, B3275?, N10903?, N24210?, N47555, N94556?

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    Quote Originally Posted by R. Walker View Post
    Is my brother on your list? He is: U152- U106- SRY2627- P66- M65- M37- M222- M153- L21- DF27- DF19-.

    We haven't tested for anything else so far, just waiting for more direction, watching to see how things go.
    He is Kit # N47555, Penna.
    Thanks for starting this Golden Hind.
    Penna is one of the seven on the P312** list who share 389i=12 and and 391=10. This is a fairly diverse group, as it includes a Russian as well as the Italian, though the rest all appear to be English. I have not been able to find a further STR connection between Penna and the others.

    I am unable to say at this point whether this group will all share a common SNP, or that such a subclade would be limited to those who have that signature. If this is a genuine variety, it must be a very old one. Perhaps Gioello could tell us how many of the Italians he refers to have the same signature, and where in Italy they come from.

    There really isn't any further testing you can do at the moment. There are a couple of things in progress which I am confident will provide us with some new SNPs below P312 and which will begin the process of dividing those who are currently P312** into new subclades. Unfortunately I can't predict how long either will take. All I can advise at the moment is patience.

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  10. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by GoldenHind View Post
    Perhaps Gioello could tell us how many of the Italians he refers to have the same signature, and where in Italy they come from.
    On Morley spreadsheet (all automated and due to the Geno 2.0 results) it seems that the P312** are more than 7 (104079?, 134765?, 180710?, 191094?, 197578?, 252516?, 26157?, 266463?, 27064?, 272715?, 49328?, B3275?, N10903?, N24210?, N47555, N94556?) even though the others beyond Penna (N47555) "may belong to one of the non-Geno-tested sister clades" (p. 3).
    I remember that I spoke with Walker many years ago, perhaps at the time of Rootsweb (2007) or DNAforum (2008), when he thought that Penna was a Spanish surname, actually that is Pena with the tilde on n.
    Penna comes from Liguria and for what I know only two Italian R-P312* has been tested so far for subclades: one is DF27- and the other DF27+. 50% of DF27- would be a very high percentage and in line with my theory of the Italian Refugium. The few other Italian P312 I know have a different haplotype as to Penna, but this does mean a little, because markers values change forwards and backwards, but only SNPs remain.

    P.S. It seems that the highest percentage of P312 in Italy is in North East.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rathna View Post
    On Morley spreadsheet (all automated and due to the Geno 2.0 results) it seems that the P312** are more than 7 (104079?, 134765?, 180710?, 191094?, 197578?, 252516?, 26157?, 266463?, 27064?, 272715?, 49328?, B3275?, N10903?, N24210?, N47555, N94556?) even though the others beyond Penna (N47555) "may belong to one of the non-Geno-tested sister clades" (p. 3).
    I remember that I spoke with Walker many years ago, perhaps at the time of Rootsweb (2007) or DNAforum (2008), when he thought that Penna was a Spanish surname, actually that is Pena with the tilde on n.
    Penna comes from Liguria and for what I know only two Italian R-P312* has been tested so far for subclades: one is DF27- and the other DF27+. 50% of DF27- would be a very high percentage and in line with my theory of the Italian Refugium. The few other Italian P312 I know have a different haplotype as to Penna, but this does mean a little, because markers values change forwards and backwards, but only SNPs remain.

    P.S. It seems that the highest percentage of P312 in Italy is in North East.
    I think it is very unlikely that Penna is actually of Spanish origin. Of the many of Iberian origin who have tested, not a single one is P312**. They are overwhelmingly DF27+. The only person on the P312** list who appears to have a Spanish origin says his ancestor was actually a Flemish merchant who settled in Spain in the 17th century. I wouldn't say an Iberian P312** is impossible, but if they exist, they are rarer than hen's teeth.

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  14. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by GoldenHind View Post
    I think it is very unlikely that Penna is actually of Spanish origin. Of the many of Iberian origin who have tested, not a single one is P312**. They are overwhelmingly DF27+. The only person on the P312** list who appears to have a Spanish origin says his ancestor was actually a Flemish merchant who settled in Spain in the 17th century. I wouldn't say an Iberian P312** is impossible, but if they exist, they are rarer than hen's teeth.
    And this could demonstrate that Iberia isn't at the origin of this haplogroup, but it has many R-V88+ etc.
    Probably these rare haplogroups have survived only in a few places, which couldn't be those of origin: see R-L11, I think born in Italy but so rare to-day and probably the few present have come back with Langobards, or even U106, rare in Italy and returned with German peoples, but in these case some rare ancient haplotypes may be survived and this is a witness of their ancient presence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rathna View Post
    On Morley spreadsheet (all automated and due to the Geno 2.0 results) it seems that the P312** are more than 7 (104079?, 134765?, 180710?, 191094?, 197578?, 252516?, 26157?, 266463?, 27064?, 272715?, 49328?, B3275?, N10903?, N24210?, N47555, N94556?) even though the others beyond Penna (N47555) "may belong to one of the non-Geno-tested sister clades" (p. 3).
    When I first looked at your list, I thought this was a list of people of Italian ancestry who are potentially P312** (negative for all currently identified subclades below P312). Now I realize this is just a list of people of any ancestry who did Geno 2 and whose results did not show a subclade beyond P312. I am pretty sure DF27 wasn't included in Geno 2, so many of those on your list might well test positive for that subclade.

    The P312 and subclades project lists 34 people who are confirmed P312** by SNP testing. Very few of them did Geno 2. What I was pointing out was that 7 of the 34 P312** individuals have the otherwise rare 391=10 and 389i=12 signature. This is far more than one would expect due to random chance, and suggests at least a possibility that the seven may share an as yet unidentified SNP below P312. Yes, STRs are subject to mutation. But Nordtvedt demonstrated that it is possible to identify likely varities by looking for shared off modal values.

    Those currently classified P312** do not represent an older form of P312. They just are part of comparatively rare subclades that haven't been publicly identified yet. There is no reason to suppose that whatever their defining SNP may turn out to be, it will be older than any of the other SNPs below P312, such as L21, U152, DF27 etc. It is highly unlikely that any lineage survives which never had another SNP during the several thousand years since the birth of P312.
    Last edited by GoldenHind; 07-27-2013 at 01:02 AM.

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