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Thread: Legend of the Pale Rider (A P312 story)

  1. #11
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    None of the sons or grandsons of generation 5 seem to have had large surviving families. The year is now 175 after the birth of P312 the family is still small. Were they still living in close proximity or had they splintered and started to move into other areas? They could not have splinted much if at all as there do not seem to be many of them around to splinter off.

    Here is the generation 6 family tree.

    P312.jpg

    The No name branch is what commonly gets called P312*

  2. #12
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    Hopefully my ramblings to this point have explained my approach here and I don't see the need to keep the story narrative for each successive generation so I am moving forward to generation 13 in the next diagram. This is as far down the tree as I intended to go. What this diagram shows is that it is now 420 years after the birth of Mr. P312. The tribe had grown. We don't know how big but at this point we only know of 24 men living in generation13 who have living descendants today. I am sure this number will grown as new finds come in but I doubt it will grown by much.

    Perhaps interestingly by generation 10 the smart money may have been on the progeny of Mr. ZZ38 being the dominant line. By generation 13 Mr. U152 was looking like the contender.

    It's a little easier to imagine at this point, 420 years after the story began that this group has started to spread out across Europe but there still seems so very few of them. Even if our 24 men in generation 13 represent only 10% of P312's descendants at that point and the other 90% represent lines that died out that still only gives us a little more than 200 male descendants around at the time.

    The descendants of ZZ38 and the U152/DF27 cousins seem much closely related than the other branch's at this time. The branches at most distance from each other were at the most 8th cousins to each other. Were some family links still known at this point between these 8th cousins? Were some cousins trading with others?

    Here is the 13th generation diagram with the 24 peers shown on the bottom row in the year 420 after P312. These 24 are the ancestors of all later P312 in this model.

    P312.jpg

    Note you may need to click on the diagram two or three times to get it big enough to read.
    Last edited by Earl Davis; 08-10-2017 at 05:40 PM.

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     Dewsloth (08-10-2017),  kostoffj (08-10-2017)

  4. #13
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    Right. That's my first volley of posts done. You can it and think well I think it should be 25, or 30 or 33 years per generation or 65, 75 or 80 years mutation rate so I think L21 probably happened in generation 12 or 14 or 15 and not generation 13 or DF27 and U152 should be 1st cousins once removed and not 1st cousins of same generation but none of that seems to me would chance the model family tree that much.

    I did this tree to help me understand family size and development and would might be been where by when. When you see a family tree rather than an SNP tree it does present a different view so seeing that DF27 and U152 were probably 1st cousins or 1st cousins once removed and may well have been born in the same decade to each other and then someone says one was born in Iberia and his 1st cousin in Germany and they migrated not as a big group but as singles or tiny groups as there just were just not enough P312 descendants to go around. Does it seem likely that L2's real 8th cousin L21 had made it to Ireland at that point?

    Taking L2 as an example, we can see potential real life relationships, brother of Z42, 3rd cousin of Z195, 6th cousin of FGC846 and Z39301, 8th cousin of DF88 and L21.

    Another thing I take from this is that I can't see the chieftain hypothesis in play here where a chief had many 'wife's' and a massive amount of children.

  5. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Earl Davis View Post
    Hopefully my ramblings to this point have explained my approach here and I don't see the need to keep the story narrative for each successive generation so I am moving forward to generation 13 in the next diagram. This is as far down the tree as I intended to go. What this diagram shows is that it is now 420 years after the birth of Mr. P312. The tribe had grown. We don't know how big but at this point we only know of 24 men living in generation who have living descendants today. I am sure this number will grown as new finds come in but I doubt it will grown by much.

    Perhaps interestingly by generation 10 the smart money may have been on the progeny of Mr. ZZ38 being the dominant line. By generation 13 Mr. U152 was looking like the contender.

    It's a little easier to imagine at this point, 420 years after the story began that this group has started to spread out across Europe but there still seems very few of them. Even if our 24 men in generation 13 represent only 10% of P312's descendants at that point and the other 90 represent lines that died out that still only gives us a little more than 200 male descendants around at the time.

    The descendants of ZZ38 and the U152/DF27 cousins seem much closely related than the other branch's at this time. The branches at most distant from each other were at the most 8th cousins to each other. Were some family links still known at this point between these 8th cousins? Were some cousins trading with others?

    Here is the 13th generation diagram with the 24 peers shown on the bottom row in the year 420 after P312. These 24 are the ancestors of all later P312 in this model.

    P312.jpg

    Note you may need to click on the diagram two or three times to get it big enough to read.
    So it's at (or past) the bottom row when we see Beakerdom entering the British Isles. With 200 male descendants, at this point that's barely a tribe; and yet the population proceeds to rocket out.

    Maybe the Pale Horse carried something like the mumps and caused infertility/sterility in the cultures they came in contact with?
    R1b>M269>L23>L51>L11>P312>DF19>DF88>FGC11833 >S4281>S4268>Z17112 (S17075-)

    Y-cousin: 6DRIF-23 (DF19>>Z17112+, S17075+)

    Ancestors: Francis Cooke (M223/I2a2a) b1583; Hester Mahieu (Cooke) (J1c2 mtDNA) b.1584; Richard Warren (E-M35) b1578; Elizabeth Walker (Warren) (H1j mtDNA) b1583;
    John Mead (I2a1/P37.2) b1634; Rev. Joseph Hull (I1, L1301+ L1302-) b1595; Benjamin Harrington (M223/I2a2a-Y5729) b1618; Joshua Griffith (L21>DF13) b1593;
    John Wing (U106) b1584; Hermann Wilhelm (DF19) b1635

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  7. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewsloth View Post
    Maybe the Pale Horse carried something like the mumps and caused infertility/sterility in the cultures they came in contact with?
    Also these guys were pastoralists, and that branch of the farming folk knew of the relationship between castration and docility at least by 4,000 BC. No real reason to assume they only practiced it upon their oxen, as they made their noble and heroic way into central and western Europe.

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