Haplogroup J-P58's true origin

[Squad]

I see that people are still arguing for a mesopotamian or levantine origin for haplogroup J-P58 while given all the evidence we have so far it is very clear that the haplogroup's true cradle is South Arabia or Yemen to be more precise, indicating that semitic languages might in fact be derived from Yemen. Maybe you guys are giving too much credit to the biblical accounts which force you to give to semitic people a northern origin. But if the origin of P58 isn't in Yemen, then I wonder how would you all explain the fact that the four most basal branchings of P58 have yemeni/south arabian representatives.

The first to branch off from the rest of P58, J-Y4067, the ancestor of the jewish L816, has a big presence in the highlands of Yemen, where it is quite diverse with at least two big distinctive clusters. A very rare branch of Y4067 mainly defined by YCAII=17-22 is also distributed along the red sea, thus showing an arabian affiliation. The rest of Y4067 is comprised of the rare L818(xL816), which appears to be centered in Iran and would represent some kind of early migration from Arabia maybe related to the migration of Akkadians to Mesopotamia. It was then probably picked up by the Jews over there and bottlenecked to give rise to L816.

The second branch, J-Z643, accounts for at least 95% of J-P58. It gave rise to two main subclades, one of whom being the rare and south arabian restricted J-L93, common among the ancient Mahri people of south-eastern Yemen. Its sisterclade J-Z1865 is also further divided into two branches, J-Z1853 (almost all J-P58 in the rest of the world) and the yet again yemeni centered J-L860.

Furthermore, I've identified one yemeni sample who is J-Z643 but negative for its two known subclades. There is one line in the Emirates that belong to this very same cluster and I'm also not aware of any non-arabian clusters of J-Z643*. It is thus also probably yemeni in origin or at the very least arabian.

So are the advocaters of levantine/mesopotamian origin claiming that all these four most basal branchings all coincidentally arrived in Yemen without leaving any trace elsewhere? Is Yemen some kind of magnet that for some reason likes to attract basal P58 branches ? Or is it rather the time to reconsider your thoughts and accept that P58 can in fact be yemeni ? The evidence is so big that I could go on and try to show that not only J-P58 but also the whole of J-L136 is southern arabian. Remember that the east african based J-P56 had to enter Ethiopia from Yemen and that, in case you didn't know, its brother J-ZS4409 is somewhat frequent in the Tihama region of coastal Yemen. Yet another coincidence?

In fact, let me tell you the most probable trail that J1 took as it expanded from somewhere around Iran to reach South Arabia : J-L620 separated into two, leaving J-FGC6064 around the caspian sea while reaching Mesopotamia as J-PF4816. One important thing that possibly attest to this migration is the existence of an eastern arabian cluster under J-PF4816, which might represent a trace of this southern movement of J-L620 into Arabia. J-PF4816 eventually became J-L136 in Arabia and later diffused as J-P58 with the expansion of semitic languages from Yemen. Resolving the J* cases from Socotra would also be crucial to better understand the history of J1 since they might in fact represent a J1 cluster with a back-mutated M267 state...

[mephisto]

It seems like J1 originates from around the Zagros mountains. There was no J1 in the Neolithic Levant.

[RCO]

Good points about J1-P58 fast expansion and concentration to the South.That`s a possibility. I think we are going to have a complete framework only when we can investigate Armenian and Azerbaijani types of J1-P58 but the points are interesting with the present data. Another complementation would be the presence of Iranian Chalcolithic (ChL) component in Bronze Age (BA) distribution in the Levantine and South Mesopotamian rich J1-P58 areas.

[Shamash]

Highly hypothetical to say the least without any ancient DNA data from Yemen...

[parasar]

I see that people are still arguing for a mesopotamian or levantine origin for haplogroup J-P58 while given all the evidence we have so far it is very clear that the haplogroup's true cradle is South Arabia or Yemen to be more precise, indicating that semitic languages might in fact be derived from Yemen. Maybe you guys are giving too much credit to the biblical accounts which force you to give to semitic people a northern origin. But if the origin of P58 isn't in Yemen, then I wonder how would you all explain the fact that the four most basal branchings of P58 have yemeni/south arabian representatives.

The first to branch off from the rest of P58, J-Y4067, the ancestor of the jewish L816, has a big presence in the highlands of Yemen, where it is quite diverse with at least two big distinctive clusters. A very rare branch of Y4067 mainly defined by YCAII=17-22 is also distributed along the red sea, thus showing an arabian affiliation. The rest of Y4067 is comprised of the rare L818(xL816), which appears to be centered in Iran and would represent some kind of early migration from Arabia maybe related to the migration of Akkadians to Mesopotamia. It was then probably picked up by the Jews over there and bottlenecked to give rise to L816.

The second branch, J-Z643, accounts for at least 95% of J-P58. It gave rise to two main subclades, one of whom being the rare and south arabian restricted J-L93, common among the ancient Mahri people of south-eastern Yemen. Its sisterclade J-Z1865 is also further divided into two branches, J-Z1853 (almost all J-P58 in the rest of the world) and the yet again yemeni centered J-L860.

Furthermore, I've identified one yemeni sample who is J-Z643 but negative for its two known subclades. There is one line in the Emirates that belong to this very same cluster and I'm also not aware of any non-arabian clusters of J-Z643*. It is thus also probably yemeni in origin or at the very least arabian.

So are the advocaters of levantine/mesopotamian origin claiming that all these four most basal branchings all coincidentally arrived in Yemen without leaving any trace elsewhere? Is Yemen some kind of magnet that for some reason likes to attract basal P58 branches ? Or is it rather the time to reconsider your thoughts and accept that P58 can in fact be yemeni ? The evidence is so big that I could go on and try to show that not only J-P58 but also the whole of J-L136 is southern arabian. Remember that the east african based J-P56 had to enter Ethiopia from Yemen and that, in case you didn't know, its brother J-ZS4409 is somewhat frequent in the Tihama region of coastal Yemen. Yet another coincidence?

In fact, let me tell you the most probable trail that J1 took as it expanded from somewhere around Iran to reach South Arabia : J-L620 separated into two, leaving J-FGC6064 around the caspian sea while reaching Mesopotamia as J-PF4816. One important thing that possibly attest to this migration is the existence of an eastern arabian cluster under J-PF4816, which might represent a trace of this southern movement of J-L620 into Arabia. J-PF4816 eventually became J-L136 in Arabia and later diffused as J-P58 with the expansion of semitic languages from Yemen. Resolving the J* cases from Socotra would also be crucial to better understand the history of J1 since they might in fact represent a J1 cluster with a back-mutated M267 state...

That is one way to look at it - where the descending branches are present.
Another way to look at would be where the parallel cousin branches and upstream lines are present.

Finally, the physical proof will be in ancient DNA.

[Agamemnon]

Yemen as the Proto-Semitic homeland makes about as much sense as placing the PIE homeland in Western Europe. The linguistic data clearly points towards the Southern Levant. Likewise, a South Arabian origin for P58 strikes me as somewhat unlikely, while not entirely impossible it requires a lot of special pleading considering the fact that J1 seems to be neatly associated with CHG-type populations (particularly Iran_Chl-type ancestry in SW Asia), needless to say J1's presence in South Arabia during the Paleolithic would also imply the presence of CHG-type ancestry, which is very doubtful to say the least especially considering this component's absence in the PPN samples we have from the Levant. A far more likely theory IMO would place J1-P58's spread from the north of the Fertile Crescent at the start of the Pottery Neolithic period, such a scenario has the advantage of fitting with the data we have so far. I would also like to add that PF7263 (which you call ZS4409) is widespread in the Zagros-Taurus region.

Finally, there's a certain irony in ascribing the mainstream view on J1-P58's origins to some sort of undue weight being placed on the Bible while promoting a theory that is both largely discredited and closely resembles traditional Arabian historiography.

[Squad]

Yemen as the Proto-Semitic homeland makes about as much sense as placing the PIE homeland in Western Europe. The linguistic data clearly points towards the Southern Levant. Likewise, a South Arabian origin for P58 strikes me as somewhat unlikely, while not entirely impossible it requires a lot of special pleading considering the fact that J1 seems to be neatly associated with CHG-type populations (particularly Iran_Chl-type ancestry in SW Asia), needless to say J1's presence in South Arabia during the Paleolithic would also imply the presence of CHG-type ancestry, which is very doubtful to say the least especially considering this component's absence in the PPN samples we have from the Levant. A far more likely theory IMO would place J1-P58's spread from the north of the Fertile Crescent at the start of the Pottery Neolithic period, such a scenario has the advantage of fitting with the data we have so far. I would also like to add that PF7263 (which you call ZS4409) is widespread in the Zagros-Taurus region.

Finally, there's a certain irony in ascribing the mainstream view on J1-P58's origins to some sort of undue weight being placed on the Bible while promoting a theory that is both largely discredited and closely resembles traditional Arabian historiography.

If you knew more about south arabian languages, both old and modern, you would know that they're very archaic and even arabic itself was said to be close to proto-semitic and its position within the semitic phylogeny is still disputed. I don't know what linguistic data you are talking about but even if we say semitic languages originated in the Levant it is still possible that they expanded from South Arabia, just like the ancestors of J-P58 are originally from the north. And if there is any special pleading being made, it's concerning those who support levantine/mesopotamian origin despite being confronted with the clear basal diversity of P58 in the south of Arabia, I mean c'mon it's so clear now or else try to make a better case for the four consecutive basal layers of P58 being found in Yemen/Arabia : J-Y4067, J-Z643*(xL93, Z1865), J-L93 and J-L860 ?!!? Where are the levantine/mesopotamian basal clades then if you are really honest with yourself ? Also, what does it really tell if J1 seems to be associated with the CHG ancestry from Iran, even J2 is associated with it and this component represents one third of modern Yemenis, which is surprisingly more than Saudis and very close to what is observed in the Levant and Mesopotamia, how come ? And who cares about neolithic Levant when my hypothesis implies that J1 reached Yemen not from the Levant but from the east along the coast. Regarding J-ZS4409/PF7263, you should know that it is lacking in diversity thus expanded recently about 4kya I would say so you cannot really infer something about its origins without looking at P56 which has a much more restricted distribution and clearly entered from Yemen not so remotely in time. Coupling both J-P56's ties with Yemen as well as ZS4409's, you can try to provide a more fitting scenario instead of implying that different J1 migrations were successfully sent to Yemen, it doesn't make sense quite frankly. In any case, I called it and I'm here to destroy some of you guys' insane ideas such as that E is asian and this kind of agenda-driven nonsense not in line with actual facts...

I'll ask the same question one more time : who can make a better case for the presence of all these lines in Yemen/Arabia ?

[Shamash]

Honestly, I'm tired of such discussions without any data to support it. We will have to wait until ancient DNA from Mesopotamia and the Arabian peninsula is available to make any conclusion on how exactly J1 could have expanded. Point. Anything else is pure guesswork. Modern y-DNA haplogroup distribution is always tricky.

It might be far more complicated than your scenario and characterised by a lot of different migrations and backmigrations over the last 9 to 10 millennia. And yes there is a lot of diversity within J1 in Yemen which makes the case even more complex. I've always pointed at this. Have you ever considered that the J1 diversity could be imported from the north – I know this is not in line with the traditional Arabian point of view? The admittedly restricted ancient DNA data points even to a northern origin in the southern Levant of FGC11* which was found in Bronze Age Sidon in today Lebanon and interestingly not in Yemen nor the Arabian peninsula. Also the Early Bronze Age Ain Ghazal J1a2b-Z2324* sample from today Jordan speaks more than the modern diversity in Yemen.

Addendum: The last 'wet period' of green Arabia seems to have occurred between roughly 10,000 and 6,000 years ago, so J1 expansions could have something to do with aridification and therefore to various degrees been excentric and non symmetric around a highly hypothetical center in the middle of the Arabian peninsula.

[Squad]

Imported from the north you say? We're talking about basal layers that left no trace elsewhere at all, why would they only survive in so remote a place as Yemen, all of them ? Why would all the basal diversity disappear from the north save the very reduced L818? And then P56 in Ethiopia as well, that's just too much to be mere coincidences. People really have to study each of these lines, go analyse Y4067 and the rest maybe you will start to see things a bit differently. And FGC11 is very downstream, its TMRCA is not even half that of P58, plus the fact that the branch expanded very quickly so it doesn't help us to figure out its origin. Then you're saying that it was found in Sidon but interestingly not in Yemen, how would it be found in Yemen if we have no samples from ancient Yemen ? Plus FGC11 expanded quickly, its current branches diverged with very short SNP trails so it being found in Sidon doesn't really tell anything about its origins. I know that the yemeni theory sounds very fancy at first because everyone is so used to the biblical narrative, but everything falls into place when you consider every piece of available evidence, so that it becomes the most plausible scenario when you approach the issue with a neutral mind. Even these basal P58 lines in Yemen have peculiar geographical distributions, for example Y4067 is common in the highlands and L93 in Mahra in the southeast. I can also tell you that the two big Y4067 clusters in Yemen look to have diverged from each other at least 5kya based on their Y-STR profiles. L860 is currently given an age of 4.2kya at Yfull and it is entirely yemeni/south arabian.

I'm not forcing you guys to accept the yemeni theory, only to acknowledge that things are not as simple as you may like them. Because honestly, it is quite irritating when I read stupid things such as the one study which claimed that J1 came to Arabia 4kya. Remember all the mess a decade ago with people saying R-M269 was the first european haplogroup and all that crap, or that V88 came from Asia while evidence was pointing towards an european arrival. That happened because people ignored actual data and preferred to go with their own convictions. So many examples like that that could of been avoided by simply analysing modern data without bias, but for which instead only ancient DNA managed to definitely shut the mouths of people uttering the said nonsense.

And let me tell you, they probably do not want to test remains from ancient Arabia because of their political agenda, at least not anytime soon. Socotra proved to be a very important place to better understand the peopling of Western Asia since the discovery of the supposed J*, but that was quickly made to be forgotten for some reason. Maybe I'm being a little bit paranoid but it is because it is getting a little bit annoying in my opinion.

[DMXX]

Your point regarding the steadfast clinging to the Ice Age Refugium hypothesis for a Mesolithic R1b origin in Western Europe is one that should be accepted by everyone.

However, it has to be appreciated that the majority of the supporters of this idea did accept a more eastern origin for R1b once both STR variance and SNP data confirmed that Western Europe was, in fact, a relatively recent sink rather than a source for that subclade. I was a spectator to those discussions when the mass silent acceptance of the data took place around 2008-10. Now we have aDNA from across Eurasia, which does confirm an eastern origin.

The situation with Y-DNA J1 isn't as clear and we're a good couple years behind R1b WRT the available evidence. Even if the Y-STR and SNP data you have presented is accurate, it appears to be based on modern samples. Interpreting modern uniparental data to predict the past is no different to using tea leaves to infer the quality of soil the trees grew from.

Based on the very limited aDNA we currently have from Lazaridis et al., Y-DNA J appears to only make an appearance in the Levant in the Bronze Age. Neither the Natufians nor the Levant Neolithic samples had any J (let alone J1). However, Y-DNA J has been picked up at least twice in the Iranian plateau from the Mesolithic through to the Chalcolithic. One of the samples did have some Natufian/Levant_N admixture (the Chalcolithic sample), but this doesn't look to be causative (0/13 Natufian + Levant_N Y-DNA uniparentals carried Y-DNA J).

On the contrary, the Levant_BA samples happened to carry Iran_N admixture, leading to the inference that the Y-DNA J found in the Near-East is ultimately a post-Neolithic expansion from the Iranian plateau (note that others with no ancestral dog in the race infer similarly).

There isn't a logical inconsistency with the above scenario. Instead, there is a paucity in data connecting the modern distribution of J1 and J2 with the limited Mesolithic to Neolithic data we have. We'll need aDNA from across the Arabian peninsula to determine whether the prehistoric realities really were that simple (a north-south expansion with the Yemeni diversity simply serving as a shallow sink for J1 subclades from migratory events since the Neolithic linked to pastoralism and then trade?).
Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. So, I do agree that we cannot rule such a scenario out (though it is fair to use the above scenario as a working hypothesis based on current data for discussion purposes). I'd personally prefer something more complicated.

A cautionary note:

I'm here to destroy some of you guys' insane ideas

This is a discussion forum, not a battlefield. Please reciprocate the neutrally-worded and reasoned responses provided by others in this thread. If you're reacting to ideas or inflammatory words used by others elsewhere (such as in one of those decaying "raceboards"), please direct your energy there. We're here to inform one another!