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Thread: Estimating Central Asian Genetic Contribution to Turks

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    Estimating Central Asian Genetic Contribution to Turks

    Hi. I tried to calculate the "Central Asian heritage" by using Afghan Turkmens on Eurogenes k13 spreadsheet and comparing them to Turkish Eurogenes K13 results. If anyone's wondering here Afghan Turkmen results on Eurogenes K13 spreadsheet:

    Afghan Turkmen on Eurogenes K13 spreadsheet:
     
    North Atlantic: 7.16
    Baltic: 12.65
    West_Med: 3.08
    West_Asian: 22.29
    East_Med: 7.92
    Red_Sea: 0.41
    South_Asian: 8.31
    East_Asian: 10.56
    Siberian: 24.77
    Amerindian: 1.32


    If you're wondering, a Central Anatolian Turk (personal)
     
    North_Atlantic 6.98
    Baltic: 7.15
    West_Med: 11.52
    West_Asian: 27.26
    East_Med: 25.23
    Red_Sea: 5.11
    South_Asian: 2.80
    East_Asian 5.52
    Siberian: 7.36
    Amerindian 1.08



    Average mongoloid dna seems to be around 36.65% for Turkmens from Afghanistan. Turks are around 8-15% If Seljuk Turkmens were similar to Afghan Turkmens, then the average Turks are around 30-35% Seljuk. I got the Turkish results from this page https://turkishdna.blogspot.com.tr/2...talamalar.html


    My method: Just compared Afghan Turkmen mongoloid dna to Turkish mongoloid dna and calculated what percent of Turkish mongoloid dna is Afghan Turkmen mongoloid dna.


    Results:

    South Turkey

    Adana: %33.39
    Hatay: %24.52
    Mersin: %35.06
    Antalya: %35.03
    Gaziantep: %19.20
    Kilis: %12.55

    Aegean and Southwestern Turkey

    Afyon: %33.64
    Afyon-Emirdağ: %31.51
    Denizli: %31.29
    Antalya: %35.30
    Kütahya: %30.28
    Muğla: %47.85
    Manisa: %33.31
    İzmir: %37.35
    Uşak: %22.45
    Isparta: %22.07

    Thrace and Northwest Turkey

    Eskişehir: %33.80
    Sakarya: %45.53
    Balıkesir: %40.35
    Çanakkale: %45.18
    Bolu: %30.85
    Karabük: %31.73
    İstanbul-1: %19.72
    İstanbul-2: %16.69
    Edirne: %20.57

    Central-West Turkey

    Konya: %22.67
    Ankara: %26.38
    Karaman: %26.11
    Çankırı: %25.15
    Aksaray: %27.20

    Central-East Turkey

    Niğde: %27.80
    Kayseri: %25.59
    Kırşehir: %32.16
    Tokat: %25.83
    Yozgat: %23.02
    Nevşehir: %21.11
    Sivas: %16.18

    Eastern Turkey

    Batman: %12.27
    Malatya: %16.38
    Elazığ: %9.95
    Erzincan: %13.34
    Erzurum-İspir: %3.54

    Eastern Black Sea

    Trabzon Outlier: %12.82
    Trabzon: %1.71
    Ordu: %35.77
    Gümüşhane-Kürtün: %46.22
    Giresun: %33.26
    Rize: %0.16
    Bayburt: %0.30

    Central Black Sea

    Samsun: %24.82


    All provinces combined: 23.17%




    Note: This is just my non-professional work. If you think my method is wrong please discuss and point out my mistakes.
    Last edited by Kqokanm; 01-23-2018 at 05:47 PM.

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    Of course these numbers are not 100% correct. Different Turkmen tribes migrated from different places. There were even Turkmen tribes from Azerbaijan that migrated to Anatolia (Karamanid dynasty is one of them). Also some Turkmens migrated from Kazakhstan, some from Turkmenistan some from Afghanistan and some from Iran. So Turkmens were probably very diverse and this also correlates with unstable mongoloid component in Turks, some Turkmens were probably similar to modern day Turkmenistan Turkmens, some were probably similar to Uzbeks and Afghan Turkmens. For now we can't say anything about Oghuz Turk genetic contribution to Anatolian Turks for we don't know anything Medieval Oghuz Turks' genetics (we need at least 10.000 samples from different years and some Ottoman/Seljuk sultan samples) but we can estimate the genetic contribution by using modern populations.
    Last edited by Kqokanm; 01-23-2018 at 07:18 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buhedyar View Post
    For now we can't say anything about Oghuz Turk genetic contribution to Anatolian Turks for we don't know anything Medieval Oghuz Turks' genetics (we need at least 10.000 samples from different years and some Ottoman/Seljuk sultan samples) but we can estimate the genetic contribution by using modern populations.
    Ultimately we need ancient DNA data to give a satisfactory answer on this subject, but 10.000 DNA samples from different periods is certainly not a necessity (even modern populations are not sampled so densely), especially if we will also study the autosomes. What is necessary is to take DNA samples from the earliest Oghuz/Turcoman cemeteries in Anatolia and environs (say, from the 11th, 12th and 13th centuries) as much as we can. But taking DNA samples from the Oghuz/Turcoman cemeteries of the Oghuz Yabgu State in what is now Kazakhstan would also be informative, at least in an auxiliary way.
    Last edited by Onur Dincer; 01-24-2018 at 03:14 AM.
    Hidden Content

    Y-DNA: R1b>P312>U152>L2>Z41150>DF90>FGC14641>FGC32041; Nigde, Turkey
    mtDNA: X2e2a3; Drama, Greece
    Maternal Y-DNA: R1a>Y40>YP294>BY90442; Razgrad, Bulgaria
    Father's mtDNA: T2b; Nigde, Turkey
    Paternal grandfather's mtDNA: H2a1; Nigde, Turkey
    Maternal grandfather's mtDNA: H5o; Razgrad, Bulgaria
    Father's maternal Y-DNA: R1b>P312>U152>L2>Z41150>DF90>FGC14641>FGC32041; Nigde, Turkey

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    Why do you only compare mongoloid components? You should compare all components score overall. There are many tools about that like oracles and nmonte.

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    I am personally very much against this methodology and its conclusions. There are people (not me unfortunately) who could suggest what is the best mathematical way of doing it but I think many if not most posts are here contaminated with our biased understanding of the turkish and turkic history.

    Correct me if I am wrong but your question is about the initial (lets say pre-ottoman) genetic contribution of Turkmens (=Oghuz) population to the Anatolia of that time. Or is it about the the asiatic precentage of the present day population. Because these are very different questions. Whatever your question is, it cannot be answered by a few samples from here and there without any controls and any indication of statistical significance. As a layman, I could immediately observe the lack of any indication of variance or of standard variation on averages.

    Second, you cannot take one component like Siberian and ignore the rest of the populations, what kind of scenario do you imagine that could lead from your Afgan Turkmen to the Central Anatolian Turk? It just doesn't make sense.

    Third, you ignore the whole phenomena of language replacement, please just see the uniparental results of Hungarians, the genetic contribution of 'real' Hungarians are estimated not more than 3-5% in Hungary. And they managed a whole shift of language shift.

    Historically, there were significant migrations from Inner Asia to Anatolia but not all of them were Turkic. And not all of them were Turkmens. And not everyone came from Horasan. Turkmen was mostly a designation for Muslim Turks by the Arabs often with a loaded meaning of pastoral lifestyle.

    I think apart from ancient DNA studies we can concentrate on uniparental markers and try to deduce for example the asiatic male contribution to turkish population (like the ones I observe in Caucasian DNA pages, accomplished succesfully).

    From Geneplaza K29 results that I shared with you here in another thread, it is clear that different Turks get a share from different Turkic groups but not always from Turkmens. And until now never more than 15-20% in total (just keep in mind that we are talking about present turkic populations). It shouldn't be so difficult to choose some very 'pure' looking Turkmen and Yörük samples and run this K29 test on them.

    Or we could try one of these K25, K30 calculators represented in autosomal DNA threads.

    In conclusion, there might be some Turks here in Anatolia that have lets say 25% Siberian but if these Turks are only 1% of the population what significance does it have? This is the problem with cherry picking of the samples. They are not representative of anything except the samples themselves.
    Last edited by eolien; 01-24-2018 at 11:05 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Anabasis View Post
    Why do you only compare mongoloid components? You should compare all components score overall. There are many tools about that like oracles and nmonte.
    I compared mongoloid components (Amerindian, Siberian and East Asian) only because it's the only unique admixture that Central Asians brought here (they also brought other components here but i'm talking about 'unique' components). Byzantine Anatolians obviously didn't and don't have any mongoloid in them (and even when they did, it's in very small amounts) so i thought it's safe to compare mongoloid components. Also according to oracle, for example, Çanakkale sample comes up as 3 51% Cyprian + 49% Afghan_Turkmen @ 5.76 or 15 54% South_Italian + 46% Afghan_Turkmen @ 7.04 16 54.9% Ashkenazi + 45.1% Afghan_Turkmen @ 7.07 but according to my method çanakkale sample comes up as 45.18% Afghan Turkmen. So my method is close to oracle's methods too i think.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eolien View Post
    I am personally very much against this methodology and its conclusions. There are people (not me unfortunately) who could suggest what is the best mathematical way of doing it but I think many if not most posts are here contaminated with our biased understanding of the turkish and turkic history.

    Correct me if I am wrong but your question is about the initial (lets say pre-ottoman) genetic contribution of Turkmens (=Oghuz) population to the Anatolia of that time. Or is it about the the asiatic precentage of the present day population. Because these are very different questions. Whatever your question is, it cannot be answered by a few samples from here and there without any controls and any indication of statistical significance. As a layman, I could immediately observe the lack of any indication of variance or of standard variation on averages.

    Second, you cannot take one component like Siberian and ignore the rest of the populations, what kind of scenario do you imagine that could lead from your Afgan Turkmen to the Central Anatolian Turk? It just doesn't make sense.

    Third, you ignore the whole phenomena of language replacement, please just see the uniparental results of Hungarians, the genetic contribution of 'real' Hungarians are estimated not more than 3-5% in Hungary. And they managed a whole shift of language shift.

    Historically, there were significant migrations from Inner Asia to Anatolia but not all of them were Turkic. And not all of them were Turkmens. And not everyone came from Horasan. Turkmen was mostly a designation for Muslim Turks by the Arabs often with a loaded meaning of pastoral lifestyle.

    I think apart from ancient DNA studies we can concentrate on uniparental markers and try to deduce for example the asiatic male contribution to turkish population (like the ones I observe in Caucasian DNA pages, accomplished succesfully).

    From Geneplaza K29 results that I shared with you here in another thread, it is clear that different Turks get a share from different Turkic groups but not always from Turkmens. And until now never more than 15-20% in total (just keep in mind that we are talking about present turkic populations). It shouldn't be so difficult to choose some very 'pure' looking Turkmen and Yörük samples and run this K29 test on them.

    Or we could try one of these K25, K30 calculators represented in autosomal DNA threads.

    In conclusion, there might be some Turks here in Anatolia that have lets say 25% Siberian but if these Turks are only 1% of the population what significance does it have? This is the problem with cherry picking of the samples. They are not representative of anything except the samples themselves.

    My question is about genetic contribution of Medieval Oghuzes. I used Afghan Turkmen average on Eurogenes K13 to calculate it. And about the number of samples, honestly we can't do anything about it for now.

    And i didn't take "Siberian" component only. I also took Amerindian and East Asian too. Read my post above.

    Historically, yes i'm aware of the fact that not only Turkmens migrated to Anatolia. But majority of the people who migrated were Turkmens/Oghuzes. In my second post i also explained that not all of them came from Khorasan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Onur Dinçer View Post
    Ultimately we need ancient DNA data to give a satisfactory answer on this subject, but 10.000 DNA samples from different periods is certainly not a necessity (even modern populations are not sampled so densely), especially if we will also study the autosomes. What is necessary is to take DNA samples from the earliest Oghuz/Turcoman cemeteries in Anatolia and environs (say, from the 11th, 12th and 13th centuries) as much as we can. But taking DNA samples from the Oghuz/Turcoman cemeteries of the Oghuz Yabgu State in what is now Kazakhstan would also be informative, at least in an auxiliary way.
    When i said "10.000" i was just exaggerating. But it'd be very nice if we could examine the dna of at least 1000 Oghuz Turks from 11th, 12th, 13th and 14th centuries along with some Seljuk and Ottoman rulers' (first Ottoman sultans) dna.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buhedyar View Post
    I compared mongoloid components (Amerindian, Siberian and East Asian) only because it's the only unique admixture that Central Asians brought here (they also brought other components here but i'm talking about 'unique' components). Byzantine Anatolians obviously didn't and don't have any mongoloid in them (and even when they did, it's in very small amounts) so i thought it's safe to compare mongoloid components. Also according to oracle, for example, Çanakkale sample comes up as 3 51% Cyprian + 49% Afghan_Turkmen @ 5.76 or 15 54% South_Italian + 46% Afghan_Turkmen @ 7.04 16 54.9% Ashkenazi + 45.1% Afghan_Turkmen @ 7.07 but according to my method çanakkale sample comes up as 45.18% Afghan Turkmen. So my method is close to oracle's methods too i think.
    You see the problem in the oracles themselves. How does the oracle work, exactly like you do but in a more sophisticated way. The problem is as follows (Onur or Anabasis can correct me if I am mistaken). The oracle tries to find the best match among the reference populations. In our case a combination of Cyprian/s. Italian/Ashkenazi and Central Asian. You assume that Afgan Turkmen as proxy for Oghuz Turks and the Cyprian/s. Italian/Ashkenazi as proxy for pre-turkic western anatolian. Now how much was the local population of Anatolia (e.g. of Canakkale, i.e. Romans) was similar to Cyprian/s. Italian/Ashkenazi ? In general terms perhaps not too wrong but it is not too informative.

    Since I have a science background we could the following control experiement: Take a Iranian, Kurdish, Armenian and Georgian sample and run the same calculator, let's see if Afgan Turkmen will pop-up?

    Just take that sample and run K29 in geneplaza. If the turkmen portion in that test comes out more than 30%, you are on the correct path. What disturbs me is that that Afgan Turkmen had quite a lot of Baltic etc. Anyway perhaps other can comment on that....
    Last edited by eolien; 01-24-2018 at 01:30 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eolien View Post
    You see the problem in the oracles themselves. How does the oracle work, exactly like you do but in a more sophisticated way. The problem is as follows (Onur or Anabasis can correct me if I am mistaken). The oracle tries to find the best match among the reference populations. In our case a combination of Cyprian/s. Italian/Ashkenazi and Central Asian. You assume that Afgan Turkmen as proxy for Oghuz Turks and the Cyprian/s. Italian/Ashkenazi as proxy for pre-turkic western anatolian. Now how much was the local population of Anatolia (e.g. of Canakkale, i.e. Romans) was similar to Cyprian/s. Italian/Ashkenazi ? In general terms perhaps not too wrong but it is not too informative.

    Since I have a science background we could the following control experiement: Take a Iranian, Kurdish, Armenian and Georgian sample and run the same calculator, let's see if Afgan Turkmen will pop-up?

    Just take that sample and run K29 in geneplaza. If the turkmen portion in that test comes out more than 30%, you are on the correct path. What disturbs me is that that Afgan Turkmen had quite a lot of Baltic etc. Anyway perhaps other can comment on that....
    Oracles do not find a match, they find a fit for the series of numbers they get presented.
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    most flavorful dishes... Of all of God’s servants, the local people are the most compassionate and merciful...

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