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Thread: Bell Beaker Trails - Modeling R-L51 & non-R-L51 Samples with nMonte

  1. #1
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    Bell Beaker Trails - Modeling R-L51 & non-R-L51 Samples with nMonte

    R1b's high modern day frequency in Western Europe and early radiocarbon dates in Iberia have been the bane of the Bell Beaker R1b debate for a decade. Now that the number of Bell Beaker samples from across Europe has increased substantially, I used Generalissimo's (a.k.a Davidski) Global25 spreadsheet to model some samples using nMonte. I started first with the oldest radiocarbon tested P312+ sample in David's spreadsheet. The U152+ RISE563 sample from Germany, while radiocarbon tested to an earlier date, was of too low quality.

    ================================================== ====
    >> Beaker_The_Netherlands:I5748
    >> 25792233 calBCE (394555 BP, GrN-6650C)
    >>> P312+
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=2.2331"

    CWC_Germany,70
    France_MLN,11.4
    CWC_Baltic_early,6.8
    Yamnaya_Kalmykia,3.8
    Yamnaya_Samara,3
    Ukraine_Mesolithic,2.6
    CWC_Baltic,1.4
    Samara_Eneolithic,1
    Beaker_Iberia,0
    Remedello_BA,0

    Two things stand out about this sample. First is the overwhelming Corded Ware ancestry and second is the complete lack of Iberian Bell Beaker ancestry. The high Corded Ware ancestry could be partially the result of Globular Amphora ancestry, but since Corded Ware is the direct cultural predecessor of Bell Beaker in the Low Countries, it makes sense. Also note the France_MLN ancestry. This could be the result of Grand-Pressigny flint trade with NE France.

    Second oldest among the P312 radiocarbon tested samples is I1390 from north east France. Like the Dutch sample, this sample shows high Corded Ware ancestry, but it is much reduced and shows a much higher preference for Yamnaya. Of note is the Copper Age component from Iberia. Notice however that Iberian Bell Beaker is still zero.

    ================================================== ====
    >> Beaker_France:I1390
    >> P312+
    >> 24802210 calBCE [24802288 calBCE (391035 BP, Poz-41227); 24672210 calBCE (387535 BP, Poz-41226)]
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=1.9541"

    CWC_Baltic_early,28.2
    Yamnaya_Kalmykia,24.9
    Sweden_MN,22.4
    Iberia_Central_CA,16.8
    Ukraine_N,5.2
    Yamnaya_Samara,2.5
    Beaker_Iberia,0
    Remedello_BA,0

    While the oldest English sample plots closely with the Netherlands sample, it prefers Globular Amphora, which may be related to remnant Neolithic ancestry on the island. As we know, Corded Ware never made it into Britain.

    ================================================== ====
    >> Beaker_England:I5379
    >> P312+ L21+
    >> 24692296 calBCE (390030 BP, SUERC-32210)
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=1.4339"

    CWC_Germany,37.6
    Yamnaya_Bulgaria,27.3
    Globular_Amphora,17.9
    Comb_Ceramic,5.5
    France_MLN,5
    CWC_Baltic_early,4.4
    Yamnaya_Kalmykia,1.8
    Iberia_Central_CA,0.4
    Yamnaya_Ukraine,0.1

    Like the sample from France, the oldest Hungarian P312+ sample has a preference for Baltic Corded Ware over German Corded Ware and a high Yamnaya Kalmykia component. Iberian Central Copper Age ancestry is surprisingly high, especially compared to local Hungarian Copper Age ancestry.

    ================================================== ====
    >> Beaker_Hungary:I2365
    >> P312+ L2+
    >> 24642207 calBCE [2460-2207 calBCE (385832 BP, DeA-6762); 2464-2212 calBCE (387129 BP, DeA-7220)]
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=2.1148"

    Yamnaya_Kalmykia,21.8
    CWC_Baltic_early,21.6
    Iberia_Central_CA,19.1
    Trypillia,10.4
    Samara_Eneolithic,7.2
    Hungary_LCA,6.4
    CWC_Germany,5.1
    Sweden_MN,4.7
    Levant_N,2
    Blatterhole_MN,1.7

    While the oldest Polish sample is Z2103 and not P312, it is noteworthy because it shows Vucedol ancestry that the others lack. This may be due to Z2103 traveling through territory south of the Danube with perhaps L51 travelling to the north of the Danube.

    ================================================== ====
    >> Beaker_Poland:I4253
    >> Z2103+
    >> 24562207 calBCE (385020 BP, PSUAMS-2339)
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=2.2247"

    CWC_Germany,44.4
    Yamnaya_Ukraine,14.2
    Vucedol,11.1
    Portugal_MN,10.1
    Yamnaya_Bulgaria,10.1
    Iberia_Southwest_CA,6.6
    Blatterhole_MN,1.6
    Armenia_ChL,1.4
    Poltavka,0.5

    The oldest radiocarbon tested Iberian P312+ sample is I5665. It has obvious Iberian Copper Age ancestry, but has important Corded Ware, Yamnaya and eastern ancestry.

    ================================================== ====
    >> Beaker_Iberia (Burgos):I5665
    >> P312+
    >> 22801984 calBCE (373040 BP, Poz-49174)
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=1.872"

    Iberia_Southwest_CA,47.9
    CWC_Germany,25
    Iberia_Central_CA,15.9
    Yamnaya_Bulgaria,4.5
    Ukraine_N,3.9
    Comb_Ceramic,2.1
    Remedello_BA,0.7

    The only high quality Bell Beaker male from Northern Italy is I2478. It's best fit is with Germany Corded Ware and Iberian Copper Age. Given that L2+ has been found in quite a few Czech Bell Beaker samples, it is interesting that Czech_MN has a respectable showing. It contains Yamnaya ancestry, but shockingly has no Remedello ancestry. Iberian Bell beaker ancestry is lacking, but Iberian Copper Age is not.

    ================================================== ====
    >> Beaker_Northern_Italy:I2478
    >> P312+
    >> 21941939 calBCE (367140 BP, LTL-5035A)
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=2.6952"

    CWC_Germany,38.7
    Iberia_Southwest_CA,35.4
    Czech_MN,14.3
    Yamnaya_Bulgaria,7.3
    Armenia_ChL,4.3
    Beaker_Iberia,0
    Remedello_BA,0

    So if earlier P312+ Bell Beaker samples have Corded Ware and Yamnaya ancestry, what do the contemporary non-R1b Bell Beaker samples share? The oldest such sample is I2a2a and is made up almost entirely of Iberian Copper Age ancestry.

    ================================================== ====
    >> Beaker_Iberia:I0460
    >> I2a2a
    >> 24602209 calBCE (386030 BP, UGA-15905)
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=2.5183"

    Spain_LNCA,51.2
    Iberia_Southwest_CA,37.1
    Iberia_ChL,8.5
    Latvia_MN,3.2
    Remedello_BA,0

    Interestingly, sample I1303 looks like it had the beginnings of contact with Germany Corded Ware, perhaps via southern France.

    ================================================== ====
    >> Iberia_Chalcolithic (Burgos):I1303
    >> 2900-2346 BCE [2568-2346 calBCE (395030 BP, Beta-416457)]
    >> I2a1a1a
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=2.0804"

    Iberia_Southwest_CA,44.2
    Spain_LNCA,41.4
    Tisza_LN,9.5
    CWC_Germany,2.8
    Blatterhole_MN,1.9
    Iran_ChL,0.2

    ...and sample I0581 had something steppe-like.

    ================================================== ====
    >> Iberia_Chalcolithic (Burgos):I0581
    >> 2900-2679 calBCE (421030 BP, Beta-416455)
    >> I2a2a2a
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=2.82"

    Iberia_Central_CA,29.9
    Iberia_Southwest_CA,28
    France_MLN,26.2
    Portugal_LNCA,8.9
    Samara_Eneolithic,2.5
    Czech_MN,2.4
    Levant_N,1.5
    Koros_EN,0.6

    Steppe cultural traits may have been carried from Vucedol all the way to Portugal by way of a Remedello intermediaries. These next three samples may show the Vucedol <> Remedello <> Portugese Copper Age flow. Perhaps this is the "stelae trail"?

    ================================================== ====
    >> Remedello:RISE489
    >> I2a-M26
    >> 2908-2578 calBCE (418570 BP, ETH-12188)
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=2.3032"

    Spain_LNCA,29.5
    Koros_EN,17.1
    Czech_MN,14.6
    Iberia_Southwest_CA,14.5
    Tisza_LN,11.5
    Vucedol,8.2
    Iberia_Central_CA,4.6

    ================================================== ====
    >> Vucedol:I3499
    >> 2884-2666 calBCE (417628 BP, BRAMS-1304)
    >> R1b1a1a2a2-Z2103
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=2.2451"

    Remedello_BA,31.4
    Yamnaya_Kalmykia,27.6
    Anatolia_ChL,25.4
    Tisza_LN,15
    Levant_N,0.6

    ================================================== ====
    >> Iberia_SW_Chalcolithic:I6601
    >> 28002600 BCE (No radiocarbon dates, but only Copper Age Portugese sample)
    >> I2
    ================================================== ====
    [1] "distance%=3.2808"

    Iberia_ChL,50
    Portugal_MN,21.2
    Remedello_BA,18.6
    Czech_MN,7.9
    Tisza_LN,2.3

    Since adding and removing reference populations can have an important impact, if you are running similar nMonte fit simulations, I'd love to see them.
    Paternal: R1b-U152+ L2+ ZZ48+ FGC10543+, Pietro della Rocca, b. 1559, Agira, Sicily, Italy
    Maternal: Haplogroup H4a1-T152C!, Maria Coto, b. ~1864, Asturias, Spain
    Mother's Paternal: Haplogroup J1+ FGC4745/FGC4766+ PF5019+, Gerardo Caprio, b. 1879, Caposele, Avellino, Campania, Italy
    Father's Maternal: Haplogroup T2b-C150T, Francisca Santa Cruz, b.1916, Garganchon, Burgos, Spain

    Avatar: Bell Beaker East Group Warrior circa 2500 BC. (after Heyd 2000; drawing B. Richter)

  2. The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to R.Rocca For This Useful Post:

     angscoire (02-25-2018), Bollox79 (02-26-2018), Michał (02-25-2018), Nibelung (02-25-2018), Ravai (03-01-2018), rms2 (02-25-2018)

  3. #2
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    I'd like to see the modeling after we have some Yamnaya_West to work with.
     


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    Y-DNA: R1b-FGC36982 (L21> DF13> Z39589> CTS2501> Z43690> Y8426> BY160> FGC36974>FGC36982)

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    Red Hair Carrier:
    Arg160Trp+ (rs1805008 T) aka R160W

    Dad's mtDNA: K1a1

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