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Thread: Siberian aDNA and Turkic, Iranic, and Uralic populations

  1. #1
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    Siberian aDNA and Turkic, Iranic, and Uralic populations

    Hi everyone,

    As promised, I ran a set of nMontes for Northern Eurasia using Davidski's new Global25 datasheet, from the Scandinavian Peninsula to East Asia, focusing on the fits for Iranic, Turkic, and Uralic populations. I thought that the higher number of dimensions should make the PCA capture more recent drift between tracking gene-flows. The results are pretty good.

    I limited all contributors to the late Bronze Age to Iron Age and later, or populations that could plausibly have had gene flow with the target pop at the Iron Age and later.

    The reason this was done was to avoid long-distance overfitting, i.e., where the algorithm, instead of using proximal sources only, it uses a few proximal sources for the pop to account for recent drift plus a large number of small % contributions from very distant sources. E.g. for Greek it uses Mycenean, Slav_Medieval and Anatolia_BA (which makes sense), plus small % Natufian, Dai and Ju_Hoan (which does not). Or fitting spanish with Iberia_BA, England_IA, Levant_BA, (which makes sense) and 1% Mbuti instead of ~5-10% Mozabite (not). Or EHG and CHG instead of Yamnaya in Europeans (ditto). The reason why the algorithm may do this is because the ratios of ancestries in the proximal contributors may not match the actual contributors exactly, so by using small % old or distant ancestries separately, there can be "fine-tuning" so all the distances approach 0, which is overfitting in this case.

    I kept trying using only proximal populations from the late BA to IA and later until the algorithm produced relatively good fits, which it was able to do in most cases. Many of the fits look very reasonable and make archaeological and historical sense, pretty impressed.

    Interestingly, the closest populations list displayed patterns at least as interesting as the fits themselves.

    I split the populations to the following sets:

    SET 1: Altai-centered Turkics

    SET 2: Central Asian Turkics

    SET 3: Tajiks.

    SET 4: Uralic-like Turkics, such as Chuvash and Tatars, + Lipka Tatars.

    SET 5: Samoyed-like Uralics.

    SET 6: Volga Uralics.

    SET 7: Finnics and Saami

    East set showed similar lists of closest populations and similar lists of contributors, while differing systematically between themselves.
    Last edited by Ryukendo; 03-22-2018 at 12:19 AM.
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  3. #2
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    These are the sets of contributors used to fit each set:

    SET 1: Altai-centered Turkics

    Iran_IA
    Scythian_AldyBel
    Scythian_Pazyryk
    Scythian_Samara
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    Karasuk_outlier
    Srubnaya
    Srubnaya_outlier
    Narva_Estonia
    Narva_Lithuania
    Comb_Ceramic
    Nordic_IA
    Altai_IA
    Mongola
    Punjabi
    Chechen
    Ulchi
    Itelmen
    Dai
    Naxi
    Tu
    SET 2: Central Asian Turkics

    Iran_IA
    Scythian_AldyBel
    Scythian_Pazyryk
    Scythian_Samara
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    Karasuk_outlier
    Srubnaya
    Srubnaya_outlier
    Narva_Estonia
    Narva_Lithuania
    Comb_Ceramic
    Nordic_IA
    Altai_IA
    Mongola
    Punjabi
    Chechen
    Ulchi
    Itelmen
    Dai
    Naxi
    Tu
    SET 3: Tajiks.

    Iran_IA
    Scythian_AldyBel
    Scythian_Pazyryk
    Scythian_Samara
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    Karasuk_outlier
    Srubnaya
    Srubnaya_outlier
    Narva_Estonia
    Narva_Lithuania
    Comb_Ceramic
    Nordic_IA
    Altai_IA
    Mongola
    Punjabi
    Chechen
    Itelmen
    Mezhovskaya
    Evenk
    Karasuk
    SET 4: Uralic-like Turkics, such as Chuvash and Tatars, + Lipka Tatars.

    Iran_IA
    Scythian_AldyBel
    Scythian_Pazyryk
    Scythian_Samara
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    Karasuk_outlier
    Srubnaya
    Srubnaya_outlier
    Narva_Estonia
    Narva_Lithuania
    Comb_Ceramic
    Nordic_IA
    Altai_IA
    Mongola
    Punjabi
    Chechen
    Itelmen
    Mezhovskaya
    Evenk
    Karasuk
    SET 5: Samoyed-like Uralics.

    These populations could not be fit without Ket and Nganassan. The nearest aDNA sample, Karasuk_Outlier, were at distance 0.06 from them, i.e. the nearest population was at 6% difference in distance. So Ket and Nganasan were added back to improve the fit, and later we break down Ket and Nganasan through fits at a second step.
    Iran_IA
    Scythian_AldyBel
    Scythian_Pazyryk
    Scythian_Samara
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    Karasuk_outlier
    Srubnaya
    Srubnaya_outlier
    Narva_Estonia
    Narva_Lithuania
    Comb_Ceramic
    Nordic_IA
    Altai_IA
    Mongola
    Punjabi
    Mezhovskaya
    Karasuk
    EHG
    Samara_Eneolithic
    Ulchi
    Itelmen
    AfontovaGora3
    Chechen
    Nganassan
    Ket
    For the next two sets of populations, I did not think that they received direct gene flow from populations like Dai in S China, Ulchi in Manchuria etc after the IA (i.e. it was mediated by some ENA-admixed population from the IA and later, instead of being airlifted across Siberia from far Easterm Asia) so all East Asian populations were purged:

    SET 6: Volga Uralics.
    Scythian_AldyBel
    Scythian_Pazyryk
    Scythian_Samara
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    Karasuk_outlier
    Srubnaya
    Srubnaya_outlier
    Narva_Estonia
    Narva_Lithuania
    Comb_Ceramic
    Nordic_IA
    Altai_IA
    Mezhovskaya
    Karasuk
    EHG
    AfontovaGora3
    Globular_Amphora
    SET 7: Finnics and Saami
    Scythian_AldyBel
    Scythian_Pazyryk
    Scythian_Samara
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    Karasuk_outlier
    Srubnaya
    Srubnaya_outlier
    Narva_Estonia
    Narva_Lithuania
    Comb_Ceramic
    Nordic_IA
    Altai_IA
    Mezhovskaya
    Karasuk
    EHG
    AfontovaGora3
    Globular_Amphora
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  5. #3
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    SET 1: Altai Turkics. Note the close distances between aDNA samples and these populations. Note also the consistent appearance of Scythians (especially Scythian_Pazyryk), Altai_IA, Mongola, and Karasuk_Outlier among the closest populations.

    TUVINIAN
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_Pazyryk Karasuk_outlier
    0.03137152 0.04251899
    Altai_IA Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.04568074 0.04910874
    Scythian_AldyBel Mongola
    0.05677704 0.06354492
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka Scythian_Samara
    0.07472056 0.07539667
    [1] "distance%=2.9007 / distance=0.029007"

    Tuvinian

    Scythian_Pazyryk 72.8
    Itelmen 10.3
    Karasuk_outlier 8.9
    Mongola 7.9
    KHAKASSIAN
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_Pazyryk Karasuk_outlier
    0.01634770 0.02464753
    Altai_IA Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.02681109 0.03452210
    Scythian_AldyBel Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    0.04073022 0.05703954
    Scythian_Samara Srubnaya
    0.05873087 0.06077001
    [1] "distance%=1.3475 / distance=0.013475"

    Khakass

    Scythian_Pazyryk 55.15
    Karasuk_outlier 37.00
    Mongola 7.85
    ALTAIAN
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_Pazyryk Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.02285839 0.03645670
    Altai_IA Karasuk_outlier
    0.03752331 0.04321664
    Scythian_AldyBel Mongola
    0.05141050 0.05272910
    Tu Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    0.06170647 0.06655838

    Altaian

    Scythian_Pazyryk 79.7
    Mongola 18.4
    Itelmen 1.9
    BURYAT (they are mongolic, but autosomally virtually identical to Turkics. Historically, they are known to descend from Kurykans, who are Turkics. Their language may be due to linguistic shift after the 13th century, when they were conquered by Mongols.)

    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_Pazyryk Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.03610198 0.04968497
    Altai_IA Mongola
    0.05186752 0.05526476
    Karasuk_outlier Scythian_AldyBel
    0.06010071 0.06395234
    Tu Iran_IA
    0.06594780 0.07885052

    [1] "distance%=3.2282 / distance=0.032282"

    Buryat

    Scythian_Pazyryk 70.7
    Mongola 25.0
    Itelmen 4.3
    The patterns seem very consistent: Turkics around the Altai are Scythian_Pazyryk+Mongola (inner Mongolian Mongols, almost pure ENA with very little West Eurasian ancestry) at approximately 4:1 ratio. As we move into Siberia, Itelmen (beringian-like) and Karasuk_Outlier ancestry starts to appear.

    Since all fits were satisfactory, I did not pursue any alternate models with inclusions or exclusions of other populations.
    Quoted from this Forum:

    "Which superman haplogroup is the toughest - R1a or R1b? And which SNP mutation spoke Indo-European first? There's only one way for us to find out ... fight!"

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  7. #4
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    SET 2: Central Asian Turks. Scythian_AldyBel starts to appear, together with more West Eurasian ancestry from the Caucasus and West Asia, but the Pazyryk+Mongola pattern still dominates. Closest populations still tend to be Scythians, Mongola, Karasuk_outlier followed by other East Asians (at a much further distance away), resembling the pattern for SET 1.

    KYRGYZ
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_Pazyryk Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.02845224 0.03408819
    Altai_IA Mongola
    0.03849174 0.03896629
    Tu Scythian_AldyBel
    0.04762992 0.04901515
    Karasuk_outlier Naxi
    0.05192305 0.06266666
    [1] "distance%=1.4539 / distance=0.014539"

    Kyrgyz

    Scythian_Pazyryk 54.60
    Mongola 39.45
    Chechen 2.75
    Ulchi 2.75
    Punjabi 0.45
    KAZAKH
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_Pazyryk Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.02424266 0.02979828
    Altai_IA Mongola
    0.03345902 0.04304158
    Scythian_AldyBel Karasuk_outlier
    0.04389642 0.04791227
    Tu Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    0.05116875 0.05716372
    [1] "distance%=1.2048 / distance=0.012048"

    Kazakh

    Scythian_Pazyryk 54.30
    Mongola 30.35
    Iran_IA 7.90
    Itelmen 2.05
    Punjabi 1.70
    Chechen 1.35
    Ulchi 1.25
    Nordic_IA 1.10
    KARAKALPAK
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_Pazyryk Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.02423779 0.03028732
    Altai_IA Scythian_AldyBel
    0.03358975 0.04048377
    Mongola Karasuk_outlier
    0.04539390 0.04737290
    Srubnaya Chechen
    0.05555522 0.05568733

    [1] "distance%=1.2968 / distance=0.012968"

    Karakalpak

    Scythian_Pazyryk 53.25
    Mongola 27.50
    Ulchi 5.00
    Chechen 4.80
    Nordic_IA 4.30
    Punjabi 3.75
    Iran_IA 1.40
    UZBEK
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta Altai_IA
    0.02649022 0.02785061
    Scythian_Pazyryk Scythian_AldyBel
    0.03199633 0.03549600
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka Iran_IA
    0.04356709 0.04400175
    Chechen Ulchi
    0.04438390 0.04438390
    [1] "distance%=0.7791 / distance=0.007791"

    Uzbek

    Scythian_Pazyryk 19.80
    Iran_IA 19.45
    Scythian_AldyBel 17.75
    Mongola 12.40
    Punjabi 10.60
    Naxi 8.50
    Ulchi 4.40
    Chechen 4.35
    Nordic_IA 1.80
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta 0.50
    Itelmen 0.45


    There is one population that doesn't fit anywhere; these are the Yakuts. They are quite far from any other population (the closest I could find were Evenks, who were at 0.08 distance away, still very far) and I could not find good fits for them. The Siberian part is probably badly represented by the samples we have now.

    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Evenk Scythian_Pazyryk
    0.08718705 0.09910875
    Altai_IA Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.10842466 0.10906728
    Karasuk_outlier Scythian_AldyBel
    0.10908411 0.11013517
    Mongola Chechen
    0.11420687 0.11651864

    [1] "distance%=9.8642 / distance=0.098642"

    Yakut

    Scythian_Pazyryk 89.25
    Dai 10.70 <--- this is very weird, so I dropped it for the next fit
    Punjabi 0.05

    [1] "distance%=7.994 / distance=0.07994"

    Yakut

    Evenk 63.15
    Scythian_Pazyryk 26.70
    Chechen 6.15
    Mongola 3.10
    Narva_Lithuania 0.90
    Last edited by Ryukendo; 03-22-2018 at 12:22 AM.
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  9. #5
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    SET 3: Tajiks. Closest populations are different yet again: not Pazyryk, ZevakinoChilikta, Karasuk_Outlier, but Sarmatian_Pokrovka, Scythian_Samara, Altai_IA (shared by Tajiks and Turkics it seems), Scythian AldyBel (also shared), Srubnaya. For the fits, Scythian_Aldybel + Sarmatian_Pokrovka + Srubnaya_Outlier are common.

    ISHKASHIM
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka Altai_IA
    0.03287733 0.03523144
    Scythian_Samara Karasuk
    0.03739440 0.03858398
    Scythian_AldyBel Iran_IA
    0.03952654 0.03958612
    Srubnaya Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.03969207 0.04172257

    [1] "distance%=1.3843 / distance=0.013843"

    Tajik_Ishkashim

    Iran_IA 31.25
    Punjabi 21.30
    Scythian_AldyBel 11.90
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka 11.60
    Srubnaya_outlier 11.40
    Scythian_Samara 6.80
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta 3.35
    Chechen 2.40
    SHUGNAN
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka Scythian_Samara
    0.03059539 0.03372771
    Karasuk Altai_IA
    0.03599524 0.03653225
    Srubnaya Scythian_AldyBel
    0.03729174 0.03835506
    Iran_IA Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.03863595 0.04062046

    [1] "distance%=1.345 / distance=0.01345"

    Tajik_Shugnan

    Iran_IA 36.50
    Scythian_Samara 18.30
    Punjabi 14.15
    Srubnaya_outlier 12.85
    Scythian_AldyBel 12.55
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka 4.00
    Mongola 1.65
    RUSHAN
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka Scythian_Samara Karasuk
    0.02915146 0.03349753 0.03518943
    Altai_IA Srubnaya Scythian_AldyBel
    0.03520315 0.03532160 0.03671922
    Chechen Iran_IA
    0.03938184 0.04015731

    [1] "distance%=1.4672 / distance=0.014672"

    Tajik_Rushan

    Iran_IA 27.10
    Scythian_AldyBel 19.60
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka 18.95
    Punjabi 11.20
    Scythian_Samara 10.55
    Chechen 7.25
    Srubnaya_outlier 5.35

    YAGNOBI
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka Iran_IA Scythian_Samara
    0.03524610 0.03560888 0.03819717
    Chechen Altai_IA Srubnaya
    0.03856935 0.03916171 0.04043572
    Scythian_AldyBel Karasuk
    0.04104215 0.04129811

    [1] "distance%=1.8059 / distance=0.018059"

    Tajik_Yagnobi

    Iran_IA 46.05
    Scythian_AldyBel 17.95
    Scythian_Samara 9.10
    Srubnaya_outlier 8.85
    Srubnaya 7.05
    Chechen 6.15
    Punjabi 3.35
    Mongola 1.50
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  11. #6
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    Kyrgyzstan
    Quote Originally Posted by Ryukendo View Post
    SET 3: Tajiks. Closest populations are different yet again: not Pazyryk, ZevakinoChilikta, Karasuk_Outlier, but Sarmatian_Pokrovka, Scythian_Samara, Altai_IA (shared by Tajiks and Turkics it seems), Scythian AldyBel (also shared), Srubnaya. For the fits, Scythian_Aldybel + Sarmatian_Pokrovka + Srubnaya_Outlier are common.

    ISHKASHIM


    SHUGNAN


    RUSHAN



    YAGNOBI
    Technically, none of these are Tajiks. or more precisely they are Tajiks in the same sense as Naxi are Chinese.

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    SET 4: Uralic-like Turkics. These populations, Chuvash and Tatars from the Volga, resemble the Uralic populations around them and do not share the turkic haplotypes centering on South Siberia identified by Yunusbaev et al. They may be due to linguistic shifts as well, because, judging from the recently uncovered part-hunnish genomes from Medieval Germany and the Balkans, the Turkic peoples, even at the earliest waves, were quite similar to South Siberians and others around the Altai in having high East Asian ancestry proper, and quite unlike present-day Volga peoples like Chuvash and Mishar Tatars, or Volga Uralics. Alternatively, if you do not believe the Huns in Europe represent the first para-Turkic incursions, the steppe was already quite East Asian at that point, so further issues from it are likely to retain this signal.

    The closest population is Scythian_AldyBel (increasing closeness to AldyBel instead of Pazyryk as we move West, and occurrence of AldyBel at the edges of the Steppe while Pazyryk dominates in the centre, seems to be a consistent pattern), followed by Mezhovskaya (majority Andronovo and Sintashta-like population in C Siberia, identified by people like Parpola with some of the early Uralics), and Srubnaya.

    CHUVASH
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_AldyBel Srubnaya
    0.05332755 0.06003493
    Scythian_Pazyryk Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.06309898 0.06461331
    Altai_IA Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    0.06716522 0.06733498
    Scythian_Samara Karasuk_outlier
    0.06807143 0.06961130
    [1] "distance%=5.0768 / distance=0.050768"

    Chuvash

    Scythian_AldyBel 73.45
    Narva_Lithuania 6.75
    Itelmen 5.40
    Dai 5.20
    Chechen 3.75
    Ulchi 2.90
    Comb_Ceramic 2.55

    Dai is bad, so push out:

    [1] "distance%=5.0557 / distance=0.050557"

    Chuvash

    Scythian_AldyBel 65.30
    Mezhovskaya 18.15
    Narva_Lithuania 5.55
    Chechen 3.70
    Evenk 3.70
    Itelmen 2.65
    Mongola 0.95
    After fitting the Chuvash, I finalised the list of contributors for the other Volgaic populations (Uralics in SET 6), as well as the rest of this set.

    TATAR
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_AldyBel Srubnaya
    0.03080592 0.03752254
    Scythian_Pazyryk Mezhovskaya
    0.04248811 0.04396065
    Nordic_IA Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.04401260 0.04412678
    Karasuk Altai_IA
    0.04461660 0.04504374

    [1] "distance%=2.3006 / distance=0.023006"

    Tatar

    Scythian_AldyBel 44.85
    Nordic_IA 12.15
    Comb_Ceramic 10.05
    Chechen 9.20
    Iran_IA 8.05
    Mongola 7.25
    Evenk 4.70
    Itelmen 2.15
    Narva_Lithuania 1.60

    No Comb Ceramic:
    [1] "distance%=2.3095 / distance=0.023095"

    Tatar

    Scythian_AldyBel 54.70
    Nordic_IA 11.60
    Chechen 11.05
    Narva_Lithuania 6.60
    Mongola 5.20
    Iran_IA 5.10
    Evenk 3.20
    Itelmen 2.55

    No Mongola:
    [1] "distance%=2.3358 / distance=0.023358"

    Tatar

    Scythian_AldyBel 56.80
    Nordic_IA 11.85
    Chechen 11.45
    Narva_Lithuania 6.70
    Iran_IA 6.40
    Evenk 3.65
    Itelmen 3.15

    TATAR_LIPKA (found in Poland and the Baltics)
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_AldyBel Scythian_Pazyryk
    0.03337400 0.03853910
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta Nordic_IA
    0.04047207 0.04055040
    Srubnaya Altai_IA
    0.04166436 0.04233259
    Karasuk Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    0.04897414 0.04939444

    [1] "distance%=1.767 / distance=0.01767"

    Tatar_Lipka

    Nordic_IA 26.45
    Scythian_AldyBel 24.50
    Mongola 20.05
    Iran_IA 12.45
    Chechen 6.00
    Comb_Ceramic 5.60
    Evenk 4.90
    Quoted from this Forum:

    "Which superman haplogroup is the toughest - R1a or R1b? And which SNP mutation spoke Indo-European first? There's only one way for us to find out ... fight!"

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  15. #8
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    SET 5: Samoyed-like Uralics. These populations stretch across Northern Central Russia, and were very difficult to fit, as the closest aDNA sample was Karasuk_Outlier at 6% and fits with only ancients could not come close to representing them. Compare this:

    KHAKASSIAN

    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_Pazyryk Karasuk_outlier
    0.01634770 0.02464753
    Altai_IA Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.02681109 0.03452210
    Scythian_AldyBel Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    0.04073022 0.05703954
    Scythian_Samara Srubnaya
    0.05873087 0.06077001
    with this:
    MANSI

    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Karasuk_outlier Scythian_AldyBel
    0.06129125 0.07258879
    Mezhovskaya Scythian_Pazyryk
    0.07543525 0.07740380
    Altai_IA Karasuk
    0.07741589 0.08003623
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta Scythian_Samara
    0.08165920 0.08256958
    Ket, Nganasan and Selkup, however, are very close to the populations in this cluster and also very close to each other:

    KET
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Selkup Karasuk_outlier Scythian_AldyBel
    0.02975829 0.06658063 0.08590533
    Altai_IA Scythian_Pazyryk Mezhovskaya
    0.08691091 0.08882178 0.09201866
    Karasuk Scythian_Samara
    0.09226259 0.09507147
    So I added back Ket, Nganasan and Selkup to the contributors for this set. Before we get to modelling them, lets see what Ket, Nganasan and Selkup turn out to be:

    KET
    [1] "distance%=2.4243 / distance=0.024243"

    Ket

    Selkup 84.55
    EHG 9.40
    Comb_Ceramic 3.45
    Narva_Estonia 1.50
    Karasuk_outlier 1.10

    [1] "distance%=5.4538 / distance=0.054538"

    Ket

    Karasuk_outlier 43.0
    Nganassan 32.3
    EHG 12.4
    AfontovaGora3 12.3

    Ancients only + Itelmen:
    [1] "distance%=6.5437 / distance=0.065437"

    Ket

    Karasuk_outlier 82.3
    AfontovaGora3 9.0
    EHG 4.5
    Itelmen 4.2
    NGANASAN (this was still poorly fit, even with Ket and Selkup included):
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Itelmen Ket
    0.08611205 0.10269269
    Ulchi Karasuk_outlier
    0.10510413 0.11700033
    Scythian_Pazyryk Scythian_AldyBel
    0.11926721 0.12623954
    Altai_IA Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.12766151 0.12795882

    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Selkup Itelmen
    0.08098218 0.08611205
    Ulchi Karasuk_outlier
    0.10510413 0.11700033
    Scythian_Pazyryk Scythian_AldyBel
    0.11926721 0.12623954
    Altai_IA Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.12766151 0.12795882

    [1] "distance%=7.0066 / distance=0.070066"

    Nganassan

    Itelmen 59.9
    Ket 40.0
    Ulchi 0.2

    [1] "distance%=8.2133 / distance=0.082133"

    Nganassan

    Itelmen 76.20
    Karasuk_outlier 23.65
    Ulchi 0.10
    Narva_Lithuania 0.05

    [1] "distance%=6.2835 / distance=0.062835"

    Nganassan

    Selkup 53.50
    Itelmen 46.35
    Ulchi 0.15
    SELKUP
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Ket Karasuk_outlier
    0.02975829 0.07368082
    Nganassan Scythian_Pazyryk
    0.08098218 0.09240397
    Scythian_AldyBel Altai_IA
    0.09283311 0.09322548
    Mezhovskaya Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.09755882 0.09924904

    [1] "distance%=1.7742 / distance=0.017742"

    Selkup

    Ket 73.45
    Nganassan 23.90
    AfontovaGora3 2.65

    [1] "distance%=6.8956 / distance=0.068956"

    Selkup

    Karasuk_outlier 67.40
    Itelmen 22.85
    AfontovaGora3 9.75

    Then, moving on to Khanty and Mansi:

    KHANTY
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Ket Karasuk_outlier
    0.03953348 0.06273628
    Scythian_AldyBel Scythian_Pazyryk
    0.07573712 0.08013188
    Mezhovskaya Altai_IA
    0.08014730 0.08052845
    Karasuk Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta
    0.08435784 0.08532921

    [1] "distance%=2.9562 / distance=0.029562"

    Khanty

    Ket 58.35
    Nganassan 18.25
    AfontovaGora3 8.55
    Srubnaya_outlier 8.45
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta 4.15
    Scythian_AldyBel 2.25


    Without Ket, Nganasan or Selkup:
    [1] "distance%=5.8237 / distance=0.058237"

    Khanty

    Karasuk_outlier 66.7
    AfontovaGora3 17.2
    Itelmen 15.8
    EHG 0.3
    MANSI
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Karasuk_outlier Scythian_AldyBel
    0.06129125 0.07258879
    Mezhovskaya Scythian_Pazyryk
    0.07543525 0.07740380
    Altai_IA Karasuk
    0.07741589 0.08003623
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta Scythian_Samara
    0.08165920 0.08256958


    [1] "distance%=3.2698 / distance=0.032698"

    Mansi

    Ket 56.25
    Nganassan 15.05
    Mezhovskaya 10.40
    Srubnaya_outlier 7.70
    AfontovaGora3 5.70
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta 4.75
    Scythian_AldyBel 0.15

    Without Ket, Nganasan, or Selkup:
    [1] "distance%=5.7804 / distance=0.057804"

    Mansi

    Karasuk_outlier 58.0
    Srubnaya_outlier 20.6
    Evenk 18.6
    Itelmen 2.8
    Quoted from this Forum:

    "Which superman haplogroup is the toughest - R1a or R1b? And which SNP mutation spoke Indo-European first? There's only one way for us to find out ... fight!"

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  17. #9
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    SET 6: Volga Uralics. These populations are close to Scythian_AldyBel, Mezhovskaya, Comb Ceramic, and Srubnaya and have varying levels of Nordic_IA as we move west into Europe proper. The appearance of Mezhovskaya is a very nice confirmation of the suspicions of the likes of Parpola and etc.

    KOMI
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_AldyBel Srubnaya Mezhovskaya
    0.03428793 0.03691489 0.04030518
    Karasuk Nordic_IA Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    0.04315808 0.04347712 0.04604267
    Scythian_Samara Scythian_Pazyryk
    0.04800987 0.04843802

    [1] "distance%=2.3631 / distance=0.023631"

    Komi

    Scythian_AldyBel 32.90
    Nordic_IA 20.10
    Comb_Ceramic 15.70
    Nganassan 9.65
    Iran_IA 8.05
    Samara_Eneolithic 6.85
    Mongola 3.95
    Chechen 1.40
    Itelmen 1.05
    Punjabi 0.35

    [1] "distance%=2.4836 / distance=0.024836"

    Komi

    Scythian_AldyBel 42.25
    Nordic_IA 16.10
    Comb_Ceramic 15.05
    Itelmen 9.25
    Iran_IA 7.50
    Mezhovskaya 4.00
    Chechen 2.85
    Narva_Lithuania 1.40
    Samara_Eneolithic 1.20
    Mongola 0.40
    UDMURT
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_AldyBel Mezhovskaya Srubnaya
    0.03459012 0.04080253 0.04316311
    Karasuk Karasuk_outlier Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    0.04639066 0.04743340 0.04903342
    Scythian_Samara Scythian_Pazyryk
    0.04910755 0.04974005

    [1] "distance%=2.5721 / distance=0.025721"

    Udmurt

    Scythian_AldyBel 49.70
    Mezhovskaya 16.95
    Nganassan 12.70
    Samara_Eneolithic 9.70
    Chechen 4.60
    Ket 3.45
    Comb_Ceramic 2.90

    [1] "distance%=2.8946 / distance=0.028946"

    Udmurt

    Scythian_AldyBel 54.70
    Mezhovskaya 29.15
    Itelmen 9.20
    EHG 5.35
    Chechen 1.60
    MARI (the pattern looks similar to the populations around them, especially Komi, but fit is poor for some reason)
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Scythian_AldyBel Mezhovskaya
    0.08122688 0.08454560
    Scythian_Pazyryk Srubnaya
    0.08830828 0.08903658
    Scythian_ZevakinoChilikta Karasuk_outlier
    0.09006742 0.09263677
    Altai_IA Karasuk
    0.09294106 0.09332671

    [1] "distance%=7.8202 / distance=0.078202"

    Mari

    Scythian_AldyBel 57.0
    Mezhovskaya 24.6
    Nganassan 13.0
    Comb_Ceramic 5.5

    [1] "distance%=7.9324 / distance=0.079324"

    Mari

    Scythian_AldyBel 59.50
    Mezhovskaya 30.45
    Itelmen 7.80
    Comb_Ceramic 1.40
    Narva_Lithuania 0.85
    Quoted from this Forum:

    "Which superman haplogroup is the toughest - R1a or R1b? And which SNP mutation spoke Indo-European first? There's only one way for us to find out ... fight!"

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  19. #10
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    SET 7: Last of all, the Finnics and Saami. Very similar to the Volga Uralics, similarity to Mezhovskaya, Scythian_AldyBel, and so on, except more Nordic_IA. When belarusian or Slavic is added back, the remainder generally aggregates to Mezhovskaya.

    SAAMI
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Mezhovskaya Srubnaya Scythian_AldyBel
    0.03980681 0.04278583 0.04393002
    Nordic_IA Karasuk Scythian_Samara
    0.04669220 0.04986604 0.05072782
    Scythian_Pazyryk Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    0.05346288 0.05416290

    [1] "distance%=3.1638 / distance=0.031638"

    Saami

    Scythian_AldyBel 43.3
    Mezhovskaya 31.4
    Nordic_IA 15.7
    Narva_Lithuania 9.6

    Add an EEF source to let that vary freely:
    [1] "distance%=3.1551 / distance=0.031551"

    Saami

    Scythian_AldyBel 41.95
    Mezhovskaya 31.90
    Nordic_IA 11.80
    Narva_Lithuania 7.80
    Globular_Amphora 3.80
    Comb_Ceramic 2.70
    EHG 0.05

    Add non-Finnic Europeans like Slavic_Bohemia:
    [1] "distance%=2.9006 / distance=0.029006"

    Saami

    Slavic_Bohemia 38.00
    Mezhovskaya 25.00
    Scythian_AldyBel 16.80
    Comb_Ceramic 11.00
    Karasuk_outlier 6.95
    Narva_Lithuania 1.95
    Nordic_IA 0.30
    INGRIAN
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Nordic_IA Srubnaya Mezhovskaya
    0.03442590 0.03588778 0.04400809
    Karasuk Scythian_AldyBel Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    0.04559721 0.04592725 0.04850874
    Scythian_Samara Scythian_Pazyryk
    0.05091807 0.05861495

    [1] "distance%=2.5148 / distance=0.025148"

    Ingrian

    Nordic_IA 50.60
    Comb_Ceramic 18.45
    Iran_IA 11.05 <----Don't like this, no post-IA flow from Iran for sure. Purge
    Samara_Eneolithic 9.30
    Mongola 6.65
    Itelmen 3.90

    [1] "distance%=2.7026 / distance=0.027026"

    Ingrian

    Nordic_IA 55.05
    Scythian_AldyBel 24.75
    Samara_Eneolithic 9.70
    Narva_Lithuania 8.05
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka 2.45

    Add EEF source:
    [1] "distance%=2.6888 / distance=0.026888"

    Ingrian

    Nordic_IA 44.5
    Comb_Ceramic 18.1
    Scythian_AldyBel 17.1
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka 13.6
    Globular_Amphora 6.6

    Add Europeans:
    [1] "distance%=1.1782 / distance=0.011782"

    Ingrian

    Belarusian 49.30
    Slavic_Bohemia 17.90
    Mezhovskaya 13.35
    Nordic_IA 8.80
    Srubnaya_outlier 5.75
    Comb_Ceramic 2.70
    Narva_Lithuania 2.20
    VEPS
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Nordic_IA Srubnaya Scythian_AldyBel
    0.03946320 0.04187050 0.04715007
    Mezhovskaya Karasuk Sarmatian_Pokrovka
    0.04877829 0.05119489 0.05416271
    Scythian_Samara Scythian_Pazyryk
    0.05587790 0.05897818

    [1] "distance%=3.1157 / distance=0.031157"

    Vepsian

    Nordic_IA 44.40
    Scythian_AldyBel 40.35
    Narva_Lithuania 9.40
    Comb_Ceramic 5.40
    Samara_Eneolithic 0.45

    Add EEF Source:
    [1] "distance%=3.0995 / distance=0.030995"

    Vepsian

    Nordic_IA 38.95
    Scythian_AldyBel 37.15
    Comb_Ceramic 13.35
    Globular_Amphora 5.50
    Narva_Lithuania 5.05

    Add Europeans:
    [1] "distance%=1.3069 / distance=0.013069"

    Vepsian

    Belarusian 68.35
    Mezhovskaya 17.75
    Slavic_Bohemia 7.55
    Comb_Ceramic 5.75
    Narva_Lithuania 0.55
    FINNISH EAST
    [1] "distance%=2.5918 / distance=0.025918"

    Finnish_East

    Nordic_IA 55.30
    Scythian_AldyBel 24.70
    Comb_Ceramic 7.40
    Samara_Eneolithic 6.05
    Narva_Lithuania 5.55
    Mezhovskaya 1.00

    Add EEF:
    [1] "distance%=2.5993 / distance=0.025993"

    Finnish_East

    Nordic_IA 52.50
    Scythian_AldyBel 23.30
    Comb_Ceramic 13.95
    Mezhovskaya 7.10
    Narva_Lithuania 2.85
    Globular_Amphora 0.30

    Add Europeans:
    [1] "distance%=1.5965 / distance=0.015965"

    Finnish_East

    Belarusian 35.20
    Slavic_Bohemia 22.05
    Nordic_IA 19.10
    Comb_Ceramic 10.00
    Mezhovskaya 6.65
    Srubnaya_outlier 6.45
    Narva_Lithuania 0.55
    FINNISH
    [1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCES"
    Nordic_IA Srubnaya Scythian_AldyBel
    0.02584531 0.03270961 0.04330134
    Mezhovskaya Karasuk Scythian_Samara
    0.04368180 0.04646210 0.05008357
    Sarmatian_Pokrovka Scythian_Pazyryk
    0.05031018 0.05771340

    [1] "distance%=2.0815 / distance=0.020815"

    Finnish

    Nordic_IA 65.30
    Scythian_AldyBel 24.05
    Narva_Lithuania 5.35
    Samara_Eneolithic 3.30
    Comb_Ceramic 2.00

    Add EEF:
    [1] "distance%=2.0803 / distance=0.020803"

    Finnish

    Nordic_IA 61.70
    Scythian_AldyBel 22.05
    Comb_Ceramic 8.40
    Mezhovskaya 3.25
    Narva_Lithuania 2.30
    Globular_Amphora 2.30

    Add Europeans:
    [1] "distance%=1.1816 / distance=0.011816"

    Finnish

    Nordic_IA 35.40
    Belarusian 31.70
    Slavic_Bohemia 17.05
    Mezhovskaya 8.20
    Comb_Ceramic 4.95
    Srubnaya_outlier 2.70
    Quoted from this Forum:

    "Which superman haplogroup is the toughest - R1a or R1b? And which SNP mutation spoke Indo-European first? There's only one way for us to find out ... fight!"

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