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Thread: Is the Ethnicity Estimate getting an update? 2018

  1. #2121
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    Quote Originally Posted by mwoneill7 View Post
    I don't think Scottish falls cleanly in either "Ireland & Scotland" or "England, etc.", but a bit into both (which probably makes some sense historically). Here is a pic from the new white paper. It looks like Scots people come up as 50-75% "Irish & Scottish". The other 25%-50% goes into England (second pic). There will always be some bleeding over between regions, particularly in places like Scotland, which is so close to England as well as Ireland.

    Attachment 25871

    Attachment 25872
    Okay, thanks, this is making sense to me. My Dad and three of my grandparents were from Belfast (maternal grandmother was French Canadian) and I got 39% Ireland and Scotland / 34% England and Wales to represent my three Belfast lines. I immediately thought the 34% England and Wales was due to some English names in the tree. On one of the Genetic mapping studies of Ireland and Britain it refers to an NICS genetic group, which is North of Ireland, Cumbria, Scotland, which may describe the percentage mix you mention. Thanks again.
    Y-DNA R-DF23>ZP149>ZP171 MDKA Thomas Doherty, b. 1825, Three Trees, Donegal, Ireland.
    mtDNA T2g1 MDKA Francoise Arguin, b. 1698, Camaret-Sur-Mer, Bretagne, France

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  3. #2122
    These maps show the average assignment of "England, Wales, NWE" across Europe before and after smoothing and interpolation. Pretty cool to look at. You can really see the affinity of Belgium and northern France to England. I'm glad they added NWE into the name, as Belgium scores about as high as Wales.

    It looks like most of Germany is >5% "England, Wales, NWE". It gets up to 25-50% in Western Germany north of Karlsruhe, as well as some of Baden.

    It's important to note that these maps come from reference samples. DNA from these areas may be classified differently in more mixed people. For example, my ~15% (paper trail) SW German falls entirely into "England Wales and NWE" because it is all sliced up and mixed into Irish and Colonial American DNA.england.2.PNG
    scale.PNG

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  5. #2123
    Quote Originally Posted by Nqp15hhu View Post
    Ironically in that map I fall into ROI percentages
    You certainly have a high "Ireland/Scotland" percentage, but it doesn't necessarily put you in ROI over Northern Ireland. ROI is mostly 95-100%, while Northern Ireland is mostly 75-95% Irish. This is also averaged across samples and then smoothed, so given the variation between individuals, your estimate is probably very normal for ROI as well as Northern Ireland.

  6. #2124
    I haven't had time to dive into the white paper yet, but I highly recommend it. Here is one thing I found about the weird ranges. Looks like the range originally came from the 1,000 iterations, but has been adjusted depending on the region.

    I think they simulated admixed DNA samples, ran the ethnicity estimate on them, and assessed whether the "true" ethnicity fell within the range provided by the estimate. For example, say one of the samples was mixed with 20% Irish/Scottish DNA and the estimate said "30%, with a range from 22-42%". If this sort of thing happened for all of the simulated samples, they "correct" the ranges by bringing them all down a bit. For instance, the estimate for the previously mentioned simulated sample would change to "30% with a range of 15-30%".

    Maybe the narrow ranges are for regions which were estimated very accurately in the simulations. Interesting, but perhaps a bit convoluted IMO.

    Disclaimer- I may be interpreting this wrong, I am open to other opinions!

    "We can test our process for calculating the range using the same synthetic admixed individuals used for
    the cross-validation studies to determine how often it correctly gets the known ethnicity percentage within
    the range. In other words, how often does the range overlap the known ethnicity. We find that the
    algorithm performs very well for some populations and less well for others. Since we know the true
    ethnicity, we can incorporate correction factors specific for each population to maximize the probability
    that the true ethnicity falls within the range. " (page 32)

    Here is the whitepaper: https://www.ancestrycdn.com/dna/stat..._091118dbs.pdf

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  8. #2125
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    Got my ethnicity update from Ancestry today. Here it is:

    Stevens_rms2 Ancestry Ethnicity Estimate_12 Sep 2018.jpg
     


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    Y-DNA: R1b-FGC36981 (L21> DF13> Z39589> CTS2501> Z43690> Y8426> BY160> FGC36974>FGC36982 >FGC36981)

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    rs4988235 AA (13910 TT)
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    Dad's mtDNA: K1a1

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  10. #2126
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    Same as v4 hacked update. Not perfect by any stretch, but a definite improvement.

    newancestryestimate.png
    The more I learn about this DNA stuff the less I know.

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  12. #2127
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    Quote Originally Posted by rms2 View Post
    Got my ethnicity update from Ancestry today. Here it is:

    Stevens_rms2 Ancestry Ethnicity Estimate_12 Sep 2018.jpg
    Did they send you an email, thank you

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  14. #2128
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    Quote Originally Posted by MacEochaidh View Post
    Okay, thanks, this is making sense to me. My Dad and three of my grandparents were from Belfast (maternal grandmother was French Canadian) and I got 39% Ireland and Scotland / 34% England and Wales to represent my three Belfast lines. I immediately thought the 34% England and Wales was due to some English names in the tree. On one of the Genetic mapping studies of Ireland and Britain it refers to an NICS genetic group, which is North of Ireland, Cumbria, Scotland, which may describe the percentage mix you mention. Thanks again.
    We are actually talking about that topic somewhat in the Irish DNA Atlas thread in the Celtic forum, if you are interested.

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  16. #2129
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    Quote Originally Posted by mwoneill7 View Post
    These maps show the average assignment of "England, Wales, NWE" across Europe before and after smoothing and interpolation. Pretty cool to look at. You can really see the affinity of Belgium and northern France to England. I'm glad they added NWE into the name, as Belgium scores about as high as Wales.

    It looks like most of Germany is >5% "England, Wales, NWE". It gets up to 25-50% in Western Germany north of Karlsruhe, as well as some of Baden.

    It's important to note that these maps come from reference samples. DNA from these areas may be classified differently in more mixed people. For example, my ~15% (paper trail) SW German falls entirely into "England Wales and NWE" because it is all sliced up and mixed into Irish and Colonial American DNA.england.2.PNG
    scale.PNG
    I think that's right -- my SW German and probably a little Swedish seem to fall in the English category, and I suspect that's because I'm mixed and have a lot of actual English (and all my German is from pre 1750, so likely smaller strands). My Swedish is more recent, but putting a bit in the English category is consistent with the map.

    Odd that my Celtic (i.e., Ireland and Scotland) numbers are only explicable if my colonial era Ulster and 1840s/50s Welsh is NOT counted wth English.

  17. #2130
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    I haven't tested at ancestry but my father has.

    The V4 is an improvement for him as it detected his India ancestry, but it may underestimate his England & Wales and overestimate his Scottish & Irish...I say may because 12.5% of his ancestry is of unknown origin (probably mostly British). On paper he's around 45% English, 27% Welsh (72% total), 12% Scottish, 4% Irish (16% total), 9% German, 2% India, 1% Swedish.

    Old ancestry: 71% Engish, 21% Ireland, Scotland, Wales, 3% Scandinavia, 2% European Jewish, 2% Caucasus, 1% Finland/NW Russia
    New ancestry: 58% England, Wales, and NW Europe, 41% Ireland & Scotland, Western & Central India 1%

    His paternal half sister also shows 1% Western & Central India.
    Her remaining new ancestry is: 66% England & Wales, and NW Europe, 31% Ireland & Scotland, 2% Sweden
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 09-13-2018 at 03:07 AM.

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