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Thread: Is the Ethnicity Estimate getting an update? 2018

  1. #2521
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    After reading some comments I'll reiterate what I find unsatisfactory about my own results... I find it hard to believe that I'm 99% "Northeast Italian, Croatian and Bosnian" this is way oversimplified. I know they include the rest of East Europe in that percentage, a blob that resembles the territory of the Golden Horde I might add, but there's no breakdown of the region into percentages. It would be really nice if they can do that in their future update.

  2. #2522
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    Quote Originally Posted by FionnSneachta View Post
    To be honest, I want an ethnicity estimate that actually reflects my ancestry and not just what I want it to be. I can't say that I'm disappointed if the estimate reflects my known ancestry since I'd be looking for a test that wasn't accurate if that was the case. Before the update, I had mostly Ireland and small percentages for Great Britain, Scandinavia and Finland. Now I get Ireland and 2% from the England region. As far as I know from paper trail, all of my ancestors were Irish with no known ancestry from anywhere else. Sure, it might be a bit more 'exciting' to get a percentage from a more exotic region but if it's not actually real, then what's the point. I'd only be fooling myself. Maybe I did have some ancestor from Scandinavia somewhere in the past but based on my paper trail, I don't so I can't really complain about its disappearance. Whether my result ends up being boring or not, I'd much prefer it to be accurate than it to be false just so I can feel more diverse.
    Exactly this. There are ways my estimate is (arguably) wrong now. I am about 3% French, and my sister gets that, but I don't. I'm about 10% German, and don't get that, it's in my NW Europe, so oh well (my sister gets 4%). The new estimate is more boring than the old: 8% Swedish (I think I'm 12%), 69% English, Welsh, and NW Europe (I'm about that English, German plus a bit Dutch and French), and 23% Irish and Scottish (I'm about 25% Welsh plus Scots Irish).

    I lost my Iberian (2%), Caucasus (2%), and Southern Europe (3%). I also dropped my Scandinavian (28%), and Europe West (42%).

    Am I sad my results are more flattened out? No, I suspected they were wrong, that the trace regions weren't real and that the Scandinavian plus Europe West was just my GB, since I know my paper background.

    Ancestry is not trying to give ancient ancestry. Ancient Caucasus and Iberian is likely accurate for me (like many from the BI), but I don't think Ancestry is trying to give that, and I don't want fake interest (maybe I have Viking ancestors, but I don't think Ancestry can determine that). So as is, mine are right. They are more accurate than before, even if more boring.
    Last edited by msmarjoribanks; 09-24-2018 at 01:00 AM.

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  4. #2523
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    If anyone is interested in seeing the updated banded maps on the "Read More" pages for regions that aren't in their own estimates, I've found there's an easy way to do it:

    Go to the "Read More" page for one of the regions that *is* in your estimate, and then in the URL for that page you can delete the region code that's there & in its place type in the code for the region you're interested in.

    List of codes:
    list format is "code": "current region name"
     
    "AfricaN": "Northern Africa",
    "AfricanAmerican": "African Americans",
    "AfricaSanPygmy": "Africa South-Central Hunter-Gatherers",
    "AmericaN": "Native American—North, Central, South",
    "AmericaS": "Native American—Andean",
    "AngloSaxon": "England, Wales & Northwestern Europe",
    "AsiaNE": "Central and Northern Asia",
    "AsiaS": "Southern Asia",
    "Balochistan": "Balochistan",
    "Baltic": "Baltic States",
    "Basque": "Basque",
    "BeninTogo": "Benin/Togo",
    "Burusho": "Burusho",
    "CameroonCongo": "Cameroon, Congo, and Southern Bantu Peoples",
    "Celtic": "Ireland and Scotland",
    "China": "China",
    "Dai": "Southeast Asia—Dai (Tai)",
    "European": "European Migrations",
    "EuropeJe": "European Jewish",
    "France": "France",
    "Germany": "Germanic Europe",
    "GreeceAlbania": "Greece and the Balkans",
    "Gujarati": "Western and Central India",
    "Italy": "Italy",
    "IvoryGhana": "Ivory Coast/Ghana",
    "Japan": "Japan",
    "Korea": "Korea and Northern China",
    "Luhya": "Eastern Africa",
    "Mali": "Mali",
    "Melanesia": "Melanesia",
    "NearEast": "Middle East",
    "Nigeria": "Nigeria",
    "Norway": "Norway",
    "Persian": "Iran/Persia",
    "Philippines": "Philippines",
    "Polynesia": "Polynesia",
    "Portugal": "Portugal",
    "Sardinian": "Sardinia",
    "Senegal": "Senegal",
    "Slavic": "Eastern Europe and Russia",
    "SouthAmerican": "South American Migrations",
    "Spain": "Spain",
    "Sweden": "Sweden",
    "TurkeyArmenia": "Turkey and the Caucasus",
    "UralVolga": "Finland",
    "Vietnam": "Southeast Asia—Vietnam"


    Now if only there were a way to see the percentage ranges on regions that came up in various runs of the DNA sequencing but didn't make it into the official estimate. I read somewhere that there used to be a way to do this, but the method described no longer works.
    Ancestry paper trail tally: 21.1% Colonial American (British Isles, German, Dutch, Swiss, French), 14.1% not traced past 19th Century United States (MD, NJ, NY, PA, VA), 7.8% Canadian (Ontario & Quebec), 40.6% German, 15.6% Czech, 0.8% British & Irish

    Hidden Content * Hidden Content * Hidden Content

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  6. #2524
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    AchaemenidEmpire1 Iran Sassanid Empire Iran Safavid Empire Iran Kurdistan United Nations
    Quote Originally Posted by Saba123 View Post
    The first Kurd is more Iran/Persian than most Persians and the second one is a bit less Iran/Persia than most Persians. It appears there really isn't much of a pattern.
    I'm a little confused though about who the Persian sample was more representative of. Because me and my Aunt score in the 90% for Iran/Persia and we are from Southern Iran originating from Fars(I'm 94% she is 92%). So I would venture to guess that Fars Iranians were the primary sample, which would make some historical sense, because the Persian Empire started in Fars. But when I look at some of my updated matches(who are presumably Fars Iranians) I see they do not score in the 90% for Iran/Persia like I do, they score around 70-80% like most other Iranians.
    Does anyone else have a guess as to who the Iran/Persia region is mostly representative of?
    This category isn't literal Persian, it's a category for all Western Iranian ethnic groups (Kurds, Persians, Gilaks, Lurs, etc). They have generic samples from all Iranians, the reason the percentages are ranging wildly is due to their bad science. So I don't think it can be representative of any specific group of Iranians due to the lack of consitancy.

  7. #2525
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    Quote Originally Posted by FionnSneachta View Post
    To be honest, I want an ethnicity estimate that actually reflects my ancestry and not just what I want it to be. I can't say that I'm disappointed if the estimate reflects my known ancestry since I'd be looking for a test that wasn't accurate if that was the case. Before the update, I had mostly Ireland and small percentages for Great Britain, Scandinavia and Finland. Now I get Ireland and 2% from the England region. As far as I know from paper trail, all of my ancestors were Irish with no known ancestry from anywhere else. Sure, it might be a bit more 'exciting' to get a percentage from a more exotic region but if it's not actually real, then what's the point. I'd only be fooling myself. Maybe I did have some ancestor from Scandinavia somewhere in the past but based on my paper trail, I don't so I can't really complain about its disappearance. Whether my result ends up being boring or not, I'd much prefer it to be accurate than it to be false just so I can feel more diverse. If Ancestry saw that someone was going to get a 'boring' result, they could throw in a small percentage here and there that are more exotic to spice it up but it wouldn't be real. I'm not disappointed with getting mainly just Irish since it's my known heritage and I'm proud of it since it represents my ancestors. The absence of a few small percentages from different regions that could be attributed to noise isn't going to make me feel disappointed in my heritage. In the end, I want to know the actual truth, not what I want to believe.

    If it makes you feel any better though, those trace regions could have reflected more ancient ancestry. They were originally advertising the ethnicity estimate as being from the last 1,000 years (that always seemed to be quite a dubious claim to me but maybe it was true). That, however, seems to be gone now and I think that it's meant to be more reflective of the last few hundred years now. If you want, you can believe that the old estimate reflects old ancestry while the new one reflects recent ancestry. It really is up to you what you want to believe is true or which estimate is correct. Maybe I did have a Scandinavian ancestor from Viking times but, at the same time, I doubt that there would be any evidence of this in my DNA. With FTDNA, my dad gets <1% South American. I greatly doubt that this is real if geography is considered (as much as I may like it to be) so I'm not going to suddenly embrace this region as my own or suddenly identify with it. I can still appreciate all of the different cultures from a distance without having to be personally connected to them.
    That's really interesting. I didn't realise Ancestry had changed the Ethnicity parameters from 1000s of years to 100s of years. It's a shame we can't have both or a journey through time feature like Living DNA have.

  8. #2526
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    Quote Originally Posted by PoxVoldius View Post
    Now if only there were a way to see the percentage ranges on regions that came up in various runs of the DNA sequencing but didn't make it into the official estimate. I read somewhere that there used to be a way to do this, but the method described no longer works.
    As some may recall, under Ancestry's previous method for calculating ancestry they did 40 runs of the test for each customer. Each time, the genome was divided into a series of blocks of varying sizes -- with a different combination each time. The customer's score for each ancestry was simply the average of that ancestry's scores over the 40 runs.

    For a while, it was possible to click on "see other regions tested" (or some similar verbiage) and then go through each region one-by-one to see which ones had ever gotten a non-zero score on one or more runs. At some point -- I don't recall when -- Ancestry made the decision to only permit customers to see ranges for ancestries that received a non-zero final score. (It was still possible to see the regions themselves, but none ever showed a range unless the final score was non-zero.)

    Now it appears that they do a single run, dividing the genome into small blocks of uniform size. So in theory, they could present results similarly to 23andMe -- not merely as percentages, but as segments located throughout the customer's genome. This would be preferable to me, though it wouldn't do much good for most people until Ancestry also provides a chromosome browser.
    Last edited by geebee; 09-24-2018 at 01:36 PM.
    Besides British-German-Catalan, ancestry includes smaller amounts of French, Irish, Swiss, Choctaw & possibly Catawba. Avatar picture is: my father, his father, & his father's father; baby is my eldest brother.

    GB

  9. #2527
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    I'm still trying to figure out where my daughter's 1% Portugal came from, since neither her mother nor I have any Portugal. I should have something reflective of my ancestry from Menorca (12.5% via paper trail).

    I suspect that my daughter's 1% Portugal is a reflection of her Menorcan ancestry, though her paper trail percentage of Menorcan would be 6.25%. My hunch is that the reason Ancestry's detection algorithm can "see" this piece of ancestry in her but not in me, is because of some difference in the opposite ancestry.

    At each location in a person's genome, there actually are two ancestries -- one from each parent. These can be the same, of course. Or they can be similar, or very different. But since Ancestry is not starting with phased data, the algorithm has to try to determine both ancestries at once, so that perhaps how similar or different they are affects the result.

    It's too bad Ancestry doesn't depict each ancestry in segment form, as 23andMe does. Presumably, they could now do so. They wouldn't have been able to do so previously, since the percentage for each ancestry was simply the average of 40 scores for that ancestry.

    EDIT:

    I think it's also worth pointing out that even with for the update, Ancestry's white paper shows only 270 samples for the Spain reference group, 30 for Sardinia, and 22 for Basque. There's no indication of where any of these samples are actually located. Are any of the Spain samples from Menorca? I doubt it.

    My growing suspicion is that Ancestry has 0 samples from Menorca.

    Curiously, though -- given my daughter's 1% "Portugal" -- Menorca is not within any ring around "Portugal". But she doesn't get "Spain", "Sardinia", or "Basque", which are the only regions that include Menorca, or any part of Menorca.

    Ibiza might be within the outermost ring of Portugal, but Menorca is not. Ibiza is the westernmost of the Baleares, with Formentera to the south. Menorca is the easternmost island, and Mallorca is between Menorca and Ibiza.

    (The islands don't run directly west-east, but somewhat southwest-northeast.)
    Last edited by geebee; 09-24-2018 at 02:42 PM.
    Besides British-German-Catalan, ancestry includes smaller amounts of French, Irish, Swiss, Choctaw & possibly Catawba. Avatar picture is: my father, his father, & his father's father; baby is my eldest brother.

    GB

  10. #2528
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chino View Post
    My family and I are not very enthusiastic about our changes on Ancestry due to the update. I think as very very white people we embraced all the obscure trace regions which seemed very believable. My mother, SO and I all lost our Jewish for example. We were also excited for my SO to originally get Irish when no one expected it, but now it's gone completely. My SO remains very diverse (European, native, African), but many other complicated results vanished.
    ---------------------
    Background:

    My mother's father was from French Canada and her mother's family was Irish. Her mother's family we traced to mid-19th century immigration, her father was born near the Maine/FC border and migrated to Connecticut (where I was born, raised, and continue to live) after the 2nd World War. We can get the Irish lineage to the 18th century on any angle, and the French ancestry to the 16th century. Some of my Canadian ancestry were from filles du roy. One of my Canadian ancestors was a Scottish revolutionary war veteran who fought in New York state and retired to Canada and had French kids with a French wife, which is pretty cool.

    My father was born to Finnish/Swedish immigrants in the 1960s. His father's family tree only goes back to my father's grandfather, and info is nonexistent. My grandfather died in 2017, and I was only ever able to learn the names of his parents and siblings, he did not know other information. On the other hand, my grandma has a book of ancestry going back to the 15th century, and claims my grandpa descended from something akin to traveling peasants with no shoes, but I think this is a joke.

    My mother and I have taken the test going back to 2015.

    Her original:

    Great Britain 47%
    Ireland/Scotland/Wales 30%
    Iberian Peninsula 10%
    Europe South 7%
    Europe West 2%
    European Jewish 2%
    Europe East <1%
    Africa North <1%

    Her update:

    Ireland and Scotland 52%
    >Munster, Ireland
    >Cork
    France 48%

    These were really disappointing for her, as her whole life she's always been "French and Irish" and wanted to believe in something else. She was fascinated in the potential of having other ethnicities and things buried deep in the French Canadian, which while I'm not confident DON'T exist at all, it's changed her view altogether. She feels less diverse, as do I. Her father's family was very very dark skinned, and her father especially looked very north African. She has more yellow coloring and I am as white as a ghost. We thought from years of research her father's original family name going back a few hundred years was Basque, Jewish, and/or from Spain, but who tf knows.

    Me original:

    Finland/Northwest Russia 38%
    Great Britain 29%
    Ireland/Scotland/Wales 16%
    Iberian Peninsula 10%
    Europe East 3%
    Scandinavia 2%
    European Jewish 2%

    Update 2018:

    Finland 54%
    >Pohjanmaa
    Ireland and Scotland 27%
    >Munster, Ireland
    >Cork
    France 16%
    Baltic States 3%

    I'm more French and Irish than I originally thought I was, but the very high Finnish makes me believe my dad's dad was not anything more than ambiguously Finnish or maybe Estonian with the Baltic result, so not a gypsy or something like my grandma would believe.
    -----------------------
    My SO is an immigrant from South America and has Italian citizenship through her mother. Information from her relatives does not bring us back further than like 1880 for anyone, and we can't trace anyone back to Europe except the Italians. When she took Ancestry's test in 2017, her results were pretty much everything.

    Native American 45%
    Iberian Peninsula 27%
    Middle East 6%
    Europe South 5%
    Ireland/Scotland/Wales 4%
    European Jewish 3%
    Benin/Togo 3%
    Caucasus 2%
    Mali 2%
    Africa North 1%
    Europe East 1%
    Asia East <1%

    After update 2018:

    Native American—Andean 45%
    >Ecuador, Peru & Chile
    Spain 27%
    Italy 11%
    Portugal 6%
    Native American—North, Central, South 3%
    Cameroon, Congo, and Southern Bantu Ppl 2%
    Basque 2%
    Mali 2%
    Benin/Togo 1%
    Northern Africa 1%

    Which are nonetheless interesting, but she lost Jewish, middle east, Caucasus, etc, while native American got more specific, Italy got bigger, and Portugal and Basque seemingly came from nowhere.

    I suppose the narrowing of ethnicities could help better make sense of things and leave out the trace possibilities. I embrace new analysis and I hope things will only continue to change, I just hope maybe someday it will swing a little more towards diverse specifics for each of us.

    What do you guys think of the results?
    So Im confused... You believed the trace regions and youre disappointed theyre gone yet you want them again? To me, it sounds like youre displeased with your boring results (which I dont find boring at all, Uralic, romance, and Celtic mix is very beautiful and rare) and would want a trace region. The Baltic is probably Finnish, the overlap is just so awful, I wouldnt really look into it unless your ancestors are from near Estonia or its been rumored in your family that somebody was or something like that.
    Final Ancestry Paper Trail Tally:
    25% Russian, 12.5% Ashkenazi Jewish, 12.5% Belarusian, 12.5% Lithuanian, 12.5% Ukrainian, 12.5% Italian, 6.25% Kazakh, ~ 6% Black, 0.78125% Uzbek

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  12. #2529
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    Baltic is one of the regions currently that gives the highest false positives.

    Re: "she lost Jewish, middle east, Caucasus, etc, while native American got more specific, Italy got bigger, and Portugal and Basque seemingly came from nowhere."

    Usually in the old test Jewish and middle east and Caucasus for someone with Italian was due to the Italian, so them becoming part of the Italian is not surprising. Portugal and Basque now could be related, dunno. To the extent this person lacks paper ancestry, I'd definitely look to Italy but also focus on matches.
    Last edited by msmarjoribanks; 09-24-2018 at 02:42 PM.

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  14. #2530
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    I wont lie, I'm getting a bit annoyed seeing new matches come in that are 100% Eastern Europe and Russia and/or Baltic when I have 0% of either. Closest the new estimate comes is 7% Scandinavian and 5% Germanic. Not sure which would be a more likely fit for my Polish ancestry- Germanic would be the obvious choice but it is hard to justify taking away from that to account for my significant Swiss and Bavarian ancestry since "Northwestern European" only covers that at the furthest stretch.
    Last edited by greerpalmer; 09-24-2018 at 07:33 PM.
    Predominately English, Irish & German with Dutch, Swiss, French & Polish
    Y Haplogroup E-V13 ("Siegel" via Prussia), Mt Haplogroup H24a1 (via Unknown)

    GEDmatch Kits: A436029, M213836, Z169952 GEDCOM: 7950338

    Ancestry: Hidden Content
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