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Thread: PIE Homeland: after David Reich, MPI-SHH supports the "southern Caucasus hypothesis".

  1. #561
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eterne View Post
    @ffoucart, I'll try again: You can reconstruct when each subclade began growth to a high population size (the coalescent time). To take the example of the I2a subclade S12195, if the larger clade containing the I2a subclade S12195 begun growth to a large population size during the Neolithic, associated with transition to agriculture, it's probably not a steppe lineage in the sense of evolving during the Neolithic period in a HG population in the steppe.

    If that subclade is not downstream from one which shows any signs of early Neolithic population expansion, and moreover especially if it shows the specific growth post 5kya sudden population growth that is associated to all the steppe lineages we know (and is clearly explained by a big increase in population size following move to true food production), then it is likely steppe. (E.g. that R1b-V88 subclade of R1b is reconstructed as having a growth phase commencing 12kya suggests it is associated to early Neolithic, while L11 expand only from 5kya suggests is associated to steppe pastoralists who only show growth phase then).

    I've never seen the I2a subclade S12195 placed on the tree, so I don't know.

    I'm just saying that placing each clade on the wider tree allows you to understand whether it is associated a general population growth phase, and so you can understand what subsistence strategy it is likely to have evolved within (because they are associated with difference growth phases). So it's not like, everything could be from any population showing quite different histories of growth without us being able to test it or falsify the claim. We can know whether a lineage or subclade is a descendant from specifically timed population growth, and that tells us the about subsistence and agriculture and that tells us about the cultural history. That was really my only point of interest here.
    Which means you didn't understand my answer: Steppe autosomal admixture is not automatically linked with population growth.

    What you are referring to is the 5000 ky Yamnaya expansion, but it was the IIId wave of the Kurgans theory. The preceding waves are not considered as the result or the cause of a growth of population. In any case, if you think that the Yamnaya expansion is caused by a "move to true food production", you are very likely wrong.

    I understand your point, but there is no reason to postulate that all lineages included in a population undergone the same success: some minor lineages likely became extinct.

    I2a S12195 is a rare subclade of L699 (dated to around 10000 BP). As I said, there is a clear link with the Steppe population. You could read:
    http://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2017/0...e-balkans.html
    Last edited by ffoucart; 07-11-2018 at 01:59 PM.

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  3. #562
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    The PIE homeland question has been answered for a long time. Yes there are genetics questions and many related questions specific to each PIE group and those who had contact with them but the linguistic homeland problem is solved.

    The people beating this dead horse are mostly those whose own sense of personal or national/group identity are somehow tied up in this debate. The other major group are academics either struggling to stay relevant, clinging to pet theories, or under pressure to support the agendas of their employers or influential colleagues. The last issue is (as I understand it) what davidsky suggested as being behind this papers interpretations and conclusions and I agree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xenus View Post
    The PIE homeland question has been answered for a long time. Yes there are genetics questions and many related questions specific to each PIE group and those who had contact with them but the linguistic homeland problem is solved.

    The people beating this dead horse are mostly those whose own sense of personal or national/group identity are somehow tied up in this debate. The other major group are academics either struggling to stay relevant, clinging to pet theories, or under pressure to support the agendas of their employers or influential colleagues. The last issue is (as I understand it) what davidsky suggested as being behind this papers interpretations and conclusions and I agree.
    Yes, I really suspect something of that kind for Reich. What I would like to know is what Reich and the Harvard administration were hoping through an alliance with Jena.
    En North alom, de North venom
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    (Roman de Rou, Wace, 1160-1170)

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    Quote Originally Posted by ffoucart View Post
    What you are referring to is the 5000 ky Yamnaya expansion, but it was the IIId wave of the Kurgans theory. The preceding waves are not considered as the result or the cause of a growth of population. In any case, if you think that the Yamnaya expansion is caused by a "move to true food production", you are very likely wrong.
    If you think that you can have a move to food production without an increase in population size, or anything like a wave of cultural influence out without an increase in population size, then you're very likely incorrect. You certainly do not understand my point if you think I am saying that all lineages within a growing population will exhibit equal success and that none will go extinct.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Agamemnon View Post
    Hope this wasn't too long.
    It was great. Thank you very much for your time. I'm not a linguist and I am (was?) not well acquainted with how overwhelming the scholarly consensus around the PIE homeland is. To be honest, a lot of your frustrations may come from the fact that to outsiders, it seems that the debate is very much ongoing. I've come across papers supporting the Anatolian hypothesis in journals like Science and Nature which aren't known for supporting fringe theories. So I guess that's why so many people, including me, get the wrong picture.


    P.S.: I don't have any skin in this game either. I'm from Mexico, we don't associate our identity to our genetics down here, what a mess would that be!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eterne View Post
    If you think that you can have a move to food production without an increase in population size, or anything like a wave of cultural influence out without an increase in population size, then you're very likely incorrect. You certainly do not understand my point if you think I am saying that all lineages within a growing population will exhibit equal success and that none will go extinct.
    I may not fully understand you, but I do understand your point about Y DNA star-like expansion and population growth, and the link to cultural change.

    But then again, you are wrong in thinking that a cultural wave or migration is the result or the cause of an increase in population. Climatic variation, diseases, administrative language... could cause migration and cultural diffusion with no automatic population growth. And some migrants are simply absorbed in another population with little, if any, impact on genetic profile.

    To the subject at hand, it is clear that diffusion of Hittite language was linked to the Hittites kingdom and its administration, with minimal (if any) population growth.

    Concerning migration from the Pontic Steppe, the first waves (roughly from 4000 to 3500 BC) are usually not connected to population growth, but are seen as infiltrations in the Balkans of nomadic pastoralists to exploit ecological niches left by farmers. Some climatic changes are also infered in the first half of the IVth millenium, and seen as a cause for those migrations.

    I will repeat myself, but if you think that the Yamnaya expansion is linked to a "move to true food production", you are very likely wrong. There is no innovation in regards of food production which could be linked with Yamnaya.

    It has been proposed that milk could be a key factor to their expansion, but since they weren't lactose tolerant, this explanation is probably not the main explanation, and could only have some interest to secondary waves, more european farmers admixed.

    Climatic changes and plague are also on the table. But, in any case, multiple factors are likely.

    So, about Y DNA, the only solution would be to look at specific subclades to date their expansion. But, it would by no means exclude other subclades to have been part of the expansion. And a secondary wave could habe been dominated by any Y haplogroup found in the way.

    To be back to Anatolian IE, it means they could be the result of founder effect with some minor Y haplogroup found in the Steppe (like I2a S12195), or of some acculurated European farmers. So, neither R1a or R1b.

    By the way, from the paper you posted, nothing about a specific expansion of I2 m223 (from which S12195 is derived).
    Last edited by ffoucart; 07-12-2018 at 06:44 AM.

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    From memory, Anthony infers that the main impetus for migration from the (late) PIE urheimat was resource and not technology-dependent. The first dispersals happen to coincide with increased aridisation in the P-C steppe. The incorporation of settled agricultural strategies (rather than agro-pastoralism) can be seen across the board - Though I'm only superficially familiar with the situation in the EMBA Balkans, said strategies definitely were incorporated by IE-speaking groups in Asia from settled intermediaries (Tabagazyab in SC Asia, putatively Afanasievo-derived groups in the northern and eastern Tarim). Ostensibly IE-speaking tribes incorporated advantageous civilisation-developing techniques as they found them (like most human populations).

    Has Reich revealed anything further to support this rather unusual backing of the South Caucasus origin for PIE? Find it quite unusual for a scientist with his stature to wade into an unrelated discipline with a firm opinion, unless there's unpublished data that will profoundly alter the current mainstream view.
    Last edited by DMXX; 08-26-2018 at 07:34 PM. Reason: Additional points

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    Quote Originally Posted by DMXX View Post
    From memory, Anthony infers that the main impetus for migration from the (late) PIE urheimat was resource and not technology-dependent. The first dispersals happen to coincide with increased aridisation in the P-C steppe. The incorporation of settled agricultural strategies (rather than agro-pastoralism) can be seen across the board - Though I'm only superficially familiar with the situation in the EMBA Balkans, said strategies definitely were incorporated by IE-speaking groups in Asia from settled intermediaries (Tabagazyab in SC Asia, putatively Afanasievo-derived groups in the northern and eastern Tarim). Ostensibly IE-speaking tribes incorporated advantageous civilisation-developing techniques as they found them (like most human populations).

    Has Reich revealed anything further to support this rather unusual backing of the South Caucasus origin for PIE? Find it quite unusual for a scientist with his stature to wade into an unrelated discipline with a firm opinion, unless there's unpublished data that will profoundly alter the current mainstream view.
    My understanding is that the conclusion is largely based on a lack of steppe ancestry in Hittite-era Anatolians, including those yet to be published, as well as these samples from the Max Planck.

    How relevant is Arslantepe to the PIE homeland debate?

    But I don't know whether any actual Hittites have been sampled yet as part of this effort, as in from burials identified as belonging to the royal Hittites or Nes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Generalissimo View Post
    My understanding is that the conclusion is largely based on a lack of steppe ancestry in Hittite-era Anatolians, including those yet to be published, as well as these samples from the Max Planck.

    How relevant is Arslantepe to the PIE homeland debate?

    But I don't know whether any actual Hittites have been sampled yet as part of this effort, as in from burials identified as belonging to the royal Hittites or Nes.
    There's that, alongside the possibility that the steppe signal was already substantially blunted among the proto-Anatolian speakers upon their entry through the Balkans. The Hasanlu_IA sample from Iran and its' co-relation to the steppes (with at least one agriculturalist intermediary) is analogous to this (Hasanlu_IA doesn't register more than 9% MLBA steppe IIRC).

    Even if Reich's team found Sarruma's tomb (good luck) and found no trace of steppe ancestry whatsoever, that wouldn't overturn decades of linguistic work indicating the P-C steppe theory is correct. Instead, it would indicate Anatolian was a rather "odd" branch (which we knew anyway, more below).

    Even so, concluding a linguistic problem based on genetic data alone isn't ontologically sound, particularly as linguists haven't resolved the archaic nature (e.g. categories, verbal system, gender) of Anatolian and are split between two groups (acquired vs. inherited) and the matter isn't settled. Assuming the data indicates the absence of steppe ancestry in Hittite-era Anatolia, concluding a South Caucasus origin for early PIE immediately assumes the "inherited" hypothesis is correct. There is simply no way that <1% MLBA steppe admixture or insignificantly -ve f3-stats with EHG f.ex. can settle a linguistic dilemma.

    The more one ponders the basis of the conclusion, the more unusual its' nature becomes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DMXX View Post
    The more one ponders the basis of the conclusion, the more unusual its' nature becomes.
    I'm sure there will be a good explanation for the lack of steppe ancestry in Bronze Age Anatolians, even those from Hittite settlements. But we don't really know if that's true yet, because only a thorough sampling strategy of Bronze Age Anatolia can tell us this.

    So the problem right now is some people who should know better looking for an explanation for something that may or may not be true, and coming up with a rather unusual solution, namely a PIE homeland south of the Caucasus.

    All of the major labs taking part in this research are guilt of this to some extent, including those at Broad MIT/Harvard, Copenhagen Uni and especially Max Planck, who've already happily released their favored choice for the PIE homeland, in Mesopotamia of all places. Crazy stuff.

    But I'd say that if more ancient data from Bronze Age Anatolia are released soon, then by the end of the year we'll have a much better picture of what the reality is, and I suspect that we might see some major back tracking by the scholars from the above mentioned institutions as a result.

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