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Thread: TRUE? King Edward III of England is an ancestor of at least 80% of English people

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    TRUE? King Edward III of England is an ancestor of at least 80% of English people

    I'm attempting to understand articles sent to me with quotes like the one above or this one one: "Charlemagne is an ancestor of all European people alive today."

    My limited research indicates this concept is based partly upon mathematical modeling by Rohde, Olsen, and Chang’s 1999. And the 2013 research by Peter Ralph of the University of Southern California and Graham Coop of the University of California at Davis based upon genomic data of 2,257 Europeans analyzing for "long segments of shared genomic material". In their abstract they conclude:

    "We detected 1.9 million shared long genomic segments, and used the lengths of these to infer the distribution of shared ancestors across time and geography. We find that a pair of modern Europeans living in neighboring populations share around 2–12 genetic common ancestors from the last 1,500 years, and upwards of 100 genetic ancestors from the previous 1,000 years. These numbers drop off exponentially with geographic distance, but since these genetic ancestors are a tiny fraction of common genealogical ancestors, individuals from opposite ends of Europe are still expected to share millions of common genealogical ancestors over the last 1,000 years."

    http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology...l.pbio.1001555

    It appears that the quotes about King Edward III and Charlemagne are based upon autosomal DNA analyses and NOT upon Y-DNA ancestory. Right? I believe this must have been discussed previously but I couldn't find the threads. Your thoughts? Thank you.
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    Is there any reason to think that Edward III had a huge number of children?

    Jack

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    Yes, he had 10 sons and 5 daughters: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Issue_of_Edward_III_of_England .

    "King Edward III of England is the ancestor of many European monarchs (as well as the issue of many English Dukes, Earls and Viscounts) through his sons Lionel of Antwerp, 1st Duke of Clarence; John of Gaunt, 1st Duke of Lancaster; Edmund of Langley, 1st Duke of York and Thomas of Woodstock, 1st Duke of Gloucester. All of Edward's legitimate children were by his wife Philippa of Hainault."
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    The best explanation which I found for this concept of "everyone is everyone’s ancestor" is from one of the authors of the paper I sited above: Graham Coop of the University of California at Davis. The website of his laboratory has a helpful list of Frequently Asked Questions which explains the concept.

    https://gcbias.org/european-genealogy-faq/

    Coop: "This strange idea that everyone is everyone’s ancestor was actually predicted about ten years ago by Joseph Chang (and collaborators) using maths and simulations. In hindsight this is intuitively clear, due to the rapidly expanding number of ancestors you have as you go back further and further in time. You have 2 parents, 4 grand-parents, 8 great-grandparents, and so on doubling every generation. After k generations you have 2^k ancestors, and this number grows so quickly that just a thousand years back (~30 generations) you have roughly 1 billion ancestors, which is far larger than the population size of the Earth (let alone Europe) back then. The consequence is that anyone alive 1,000 years ago who left any descendants will be an ancestor of every European."
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celt_?? View Post
    I'm attempting to understand articles sent to me with quotes like the one above or this one one: "Charlemagne is an ancestor of all European people alive today."

    My limited research indicates this concept is based partly upon mathematical modeling by Rohde, Olsen, and Chang’s 1999. And the 2013 research by Peter Ralph of the University of Southern California and Graham Coop of the University of California at Davis based upon genomic data of 2,257 Europeans analyzing for "long segments of shared genomic material". In their abstract they conclude:

    "We detected 1.9 million shared long genomic segments, and used the lengths of these to infer the distribution of shared ancestors across time and geography. We find that a pair of modern Europeans living in neighboring populations share around 2–12 genetic common ancestors from the last 1,500 years, and upwards of 100 genetic ancestors from the previous 1,000 years. These numbers drop off exponentially with geographic distance, but since these genetic ancestors are a tiny fraction of common genealogical ancestors, individuals from opposite ends of Europe are still expected to share millions of common genealogical ancestors over the last 1,000 years."

    http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology...l.pbio.1001555

    It appears that the quotes about King Edward III and Charlemagne are based upon autosomal DNA analyses and NOT upon Y-DNA ancestory. Right? I believe this must have been discussed previously but I couldn't find the threads. Your thoughts? Thank you.
    I think the study is biased by the fact that all European peoples descended from the same ancestral peoples of more of 4000 years ago, and that because of inbreeding, an identical segment that could seem long, is in fact the juxtaposition of several small identical segments.
    So 1,000 years? I do not believe it at all

    This strange idea that everyone is everyone’s ancestor was actually predicted about ten years ago by Joseph Chang (and collaborators) using maths and simulations. In hindsight this is intuitively clear, due to the rapidly expanding number of ancestors you have as you go back further and further in time. You have 2 parents, 4 grand-parents, 8 great-grandparents, and so on doubling every generation. After k generations you have 2^k ancestors, and this number grows so quickly that just a thousand years back (~30 generations) you have roughly 1 billion ancestors, which is far larger than the population size of the Earth (let alone Europe) back then. The consequence is that anyone alive 1,000 years ago who left any descendants will be an ancestor of every European."
    This mathematical model is not applicable if one ignores the geographical distance, and its consequence: the countless cases of inbreeding, which increases in the same way that the theoretical number of ancestors.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celt_?? View Post
    The consequence is that anyone alive 1,000 years ago who left any descendants will be an ancestor of every European."
    While the math is sound, as far as it goes, I still believe some important factors are not being considered. First of all, Edward III lived in the 14th Century (reigned 1327-1377). In addition, I believe the math assumed marriages were random. For the first few generations at least, the descendants of Edward III only married into other noble & royal lines. I do believe this should have some consequences regarding how common an ancestor Edward III was.

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    Plus tons and tons of pedigree collapse as distant cousins married. And it didn't account for semi-isolated populations and classes not mixing with each other anything close to totally randomly, etc.

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    I would say that is correct, I have him as 21st Great Grandfather on Ancestry on my paternal grandmother's line (everything interesting seems to be off her line, Plantaganets, saints, mutineers, Duncan 1 the dude who was killed by MacBeth).

    I obviously take it with a pinch of salt as I don't have records to back up every generation yet.

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    There appears to be a recent Wellcome Trust-associated study that states that 50% of western European males descend from same Bronze-age King based on Y DNA studies.

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