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Thread: Paleolithic DNA from the Caucasus reveals core of West Eurasian ancestry

  1. #281
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    Quote Originally Posted by Psynome View Post
    Where do you get Taforalt as ~60% pre-OOA? Do you include Basal Eurasian as "pre-OOA"?
    How basal Taforalt is, if you wanted to model Taforalt as say 'something without basal' + Mota, with your only outgroup being Ust_Ishim, you'd need 39.7% Mota.
    We know Mota is not a proximate source though, it harbors ancestry from a more divergent lineage than dampens its affinity to some Africans, whereas Taforalt does not.
    Therefore we need a ghost that is, overall, closer to Eurasians, which means a higher % contribution (>39.7%) needed from that source to create the basal effect.
    I estimate this source based on the trajectory from Anatolia_N > Levant_N, which involves 10.5% of ancestry from a population that would be F3: MbutiDG popX Ust_Ishim = 0.1540
    (In place of popX, Mota = 0.1007, Taforalt = 0.1787, Barcin_N = 0.2202, Levant_N = 0.2120, non-basal-Eurasians = ~0.2300)
    The contribution from popX would be ~67.5%. 32.5% remains, which is probably how much West-Eurasian Taforalt has (24% at the absolute minimum).
    Collection of 14,000 d-stats: Hidden Content Part 2: Hidden Content Part 3: Hidden Content PM me for d-stats, qpadm, or f3-outgroup nmonte models. Looking for: KEB-IAM-TOR and Baikal_EN in plink/eigenstrat 1240k panel

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  3. #282
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kale View Post
    How basal Taforalt is, if you wanted to model Taforalt as say 'something without basal' + Mota, with your only outgroup being Ust_Ishim, you'd need 39.7% Mota.
    We know Mota is not a proximate source though, it harbors ancestry from a more divergent lineage than dampens its affinity to some Africans, whereas Taforalt does not.
    Therefore we need a ghost that is, overall, closer to Eurasians, which means a higher % contribution (>39.7%) needed from that source to create the basal effect.
    I estimate this source based on the trajectory from Anatolia_N > Levant_N, which involves 10.5% of ancestry from a population that would be F3: MbutiDG popX Ust_Ishim = 0.1540
    (In place of popX, Mota = 0.1007, Taforalt = 0.1787, Barcin_N = 0.2202, Levant_N = 0.2120, non-basal-Eurasians = ~0.2300)
    The contribution from popX would be ~67.5%. 32.5% remains, which is probably how much West-Eurasian Taforalt has (24% at the absolute minimum).
    Thanks for describing your model. So by "Pre-OOA" you mean anything more basal than the common Eurasian ancestry found in Ust' Ishim. That would exclude Basal Eurasian.

    Your estimate of 32.5% West Eurasian lines up pretty well with the proportion given in the graph model in the paper, which has (.72)(.55)=39.6% West Eurasian.

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  5. #283
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    Honestly that's coincidental. The qpgraph models in that paper leave out crucial populations and as such are basically worthless.
    At this point I'd advocate that Taforalt is ~32.5% paleo-european-related + 67.5% of something that was probably the last stop before the main Eurasian/OOA bottleneck.
    The West Eurasian stuff in Taforalt is definitely different than that in Natufians.

    MbutiDG Natufian Vestonice16 Kostenki14 -0.0062 -0.911 15672 15868 309785
    MbutiDG Taforalt Vestonice16 Kostenki14 -0.0186 -3.851 32419 33646 678742
    MbutiDG Natufian GoyetQ116-1 Kostenki14 -0.0098 -1.364 16723 17055 325656
    MbutiDG Taforalt GoyetQ116-1 Kostenki14 -0.015 -3.175 34983 36051 707696
    MbutiDG Natufian ElMiron GoyetQ116-1 -0.0173 -2.291 12140 12567 255688
    MbutiDG Taforalt ElMiron GoyetQ116-1 -0.0012 -0.231 23931 23989 515690
    MbutiDG Natufian Bichon Vestonice16 -0.0217 -3.181 16518 17250 327386
    MbutiDG Taforalt Bichon Vestonice16 0.0005 0.099 35780 35747 726247

    If you still want the flow to be Natufian > Taforalt though, adding Oase1 as a third contributor to Taforalt for some weird reason works.

    I'm hoping Dzudzuana helps to resolve some of this back-and-forth modeling...

    Taforalt = Natufian + Oase1 + African
    Natufian = Anatolia_N + paleo-european + Taforalt

    Anatolia_N = Levant_N + CHG + WHG
    Levant_N = Anatolia_N + Taforalt
    WHG = Vestonice + ElMiron + EHG + Anatolia_N
    Last edited by Kale; 12-25-2018 at 03:27 AM.
    Collection of 14,000 d-stats: Hidden Content Part 2: Hidden Content Part 3: Hidden Content PM me for d-stats, qpadm, or f3-outgroup nmonte models. Looking for: KEB-IAM-TOR and Baikal_EN in plink/eigenstrat 1240k panel

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  7. #284
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kale View Post
    Honestly that's coincidental. The qpgraph models in that paper leave out crucial populations and as such are basically worthless.
    At this point I'd advocate that Taforalt is ~32.5% paleo-european-related + 67.5% of something that was probably the last stop before the main Eurasian/OOA bottleneck.
    The West Eurasian stuff in Taforalt is definitely different than that in Natufians.

    MbutiDG Natufian Vestonice16 Kostenki14 -0.0062 -0.911 15672 15868 309785
    MbutiDG Taforalt Vestonice16 Kostenki14 -0.0186 -3.851 32419 33646 678742
    MbutiDG Natufian GoyetQ116-1 Kostenki14 -0.0098 -1.364 16723 17055 325656
    MbutiDG Taforalt GoyetQ116-1 Kostenki14 -0.015 -3.175 34983 36051 707696
    MbutiDG Natufian ElMiron GoyetQ116-1 -0.0173 -2.291 12140 12567 255688
    MbutiDG Taforalt ElMiron GoyetQ116-1 -0.0012 -0.231 23931 23989 515690
    MbutiDG Natufian Bichon Vestonice16 -0.0217 -3.181 16518 17250 327386
    MbutiDG Taforalt Bichon Vestonice16 0.0005 0.099 35780 35747 726247

    If you still want the flow to be Natufian > Taforalt though, adding Oase1 as a third contributor to Taforalt for some weird reason works.

    I'm hoping Dzudzuana helps to resolve some of this back-and-forth modeling...

    Taforalt = Natufian + Oase1 + African
    Natufian = Anatolia_N + paleo-european + Taforalt

    Anatolia_N = Levant_N + CHG + WHG
    Levant_N = Anatolia_N + Taforalt
    WHG = Vestonice + ElMiron + EHG + Anatolia_N
    Thanks for clearing that up. It will be nice to see what people come up with when the data is released!

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