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Thread: Sample Bias?

  1. #21
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    England Scotland Ireland United States of America Vatican Germany Schleswig-Holstein
    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893 View Post
    In case anyone is interested in doing this, This may save you some time on the European country totals...

    Albania 66
    Armenia 500
    Austria 478
    Azerbijan 109
    Belarus 591
    Belgium 355
    Bosnia 113
    Bulgaria 291
    Croatia 154
    Cyprus 57
    Czech 492
    Denmark 555
    England 10996
    Estonia 86
    Faore Isles 4
    Finland 2,421
    France 2,497
    Georgia 238
    Germany 7,326
    Greece 615
    Guernsey 4
    Hungary 800
    Iceland 132
    Ireland 7,767
    Isle of Man 18
    Italy 2,749
    Jersey 1
    Latvia 154
    Liech 7
    Lithuania 708
    Lux 44
    Macedonia 66
    Malta 50
    Moldova 55
    Montenegro 43
    N Ireland 830
    Netherlands 983
    Norway 1,537
    Poland 2,633
    Portugal 722
    Romania 397
    Russia 3,600
    Scotland 5,835
    Serbia 125
    Slovakia 319
    Slovenia 111
    Spain 2,061
    Sweden 2,850
    Switz 1,255
    Turkey 741
    UK 4,127
    Ukraine 1,255
    Wales 922
    There’s a lot of British Isles in those numbers (30495)
    Known Paper Trail: 45.3% English, 29.7% Scottish, 12.5% Irish, 6.25% German & 6.25% Italian. Or: 87.5% British Isles, 6.25% German & 6.25% Italian.
    LivingDNA: 88.1% British Isles (59.7% English, 27% Scottish & 1.3% Irish), 5.9% Europe South (Aegian 3.4%, Tuscany 1.3%, Sardinia 1.1%), 4.4% Europe NW (Scandinavia) & 1.6% Europe East, (Mordovia).
    FT Big Y: I1-Z140 branch I-F2642 >Y1966 >Y3649 >A13241 >Y3647 >A13248 (circa 930 AD) >A13242/YSEQ (circa 1075 AD) >A13243/YSEQ (circa 1660 AD).

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  3. #22
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    double post.
    Last edited by JMcB; 11-25-2018 at 09:27 PM.
    Known Paper Trail: 45.3% English, 29.7% Scottish, 12.5% Irish, 6.25% German & 6.25% Italian. Or: 87.5% British Isles, 6.25% German & 6.25% Italian.
    LivingDNA: 88.1% British Isles (59.7% English, 27% Scottish & 1.3% Irish), 5.9% Europe South (Aegian 3.4%, Tuscany 1.3%, Sardinia 1.1%), 4.4% Europe NW (Scandinavia) & 1.6% Europe East, (Mordovia).
    FT Big Y: I1-Z140 branch I-F2642 >Y1966 >Y3649 >A13241 >Y3647 >A13248 (circa 930 AD) >A13242/YSEQ (circa 1075 AD) >A13243/YSEQ (circa 1660 AD).

  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMcB View Post
    Thereís a lot of British Isles in those numbers (30495)
    19% of all kits and that doesnít include people with British Isles ancestry that marked Unites States or Canada.
    Last edited by mwauthy; 11-25-2018 at 11:57 PM. Reason: Addition

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  6. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMcB View Post
    There’s a lot of British Isles in those numbers (30495)
    The enormous overweighting of samples with ancestry from Britain and Ireland in the FTDNA database has been known for several years.

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  8. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoldenHind View Post
    The enormous overweighting of samples with ancestry from Britain and Ireland in the FTDNA database has been known for several years.
    I was aware of that but it was nice to see the numbers, nevertheless
    Last edited by JMcB; 11-27-2018 at 04:55 AM.
    Known Paper Trail: 45.3% English, 29.7% Scottish, 12.5% Irish, 6.25% German & 6.25% Italian. Or: 87.5% British Isles, 6.25% German & 6.25% Italian.
    LivingDNA: 88.1% British Isles (59.7% English, 27% Scottish & 1.3% Irish), 5.9% Europe South (Aegian 3.4%, Tuscany 1.3%, Sardinia 1.1%), 4.4% Europe NW (Scandinavia) & 1.6% Europe East, (Mordovia).
    FT Big Y: I1-Z140 branch I-F2642 >Y1966 >Y3649 >A13241 >Y3647 >A13248 (circa 930 AD) >A13242/YSEQ (circa 1075 AD) >A13243/YSEQ (circa 1660 AD).

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  10. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by mwauthy View Post
    Here are percentages for I-M253 based on the Ftdna Haplotree since many STR testers show as I-M253 rather than I-DF29. I might add more countries later. Minimum of at least 25 kits positive for I-M253.

    Sweden: 1,291/2,850= 45%
    Norway: 579/1,537= 38%
    Denmark: 202/555= 36%
    Iceland: 42/132= 32%
    Finland: 664/2,421= 27%
    Netherlands: 229/983= 23%
    England: 2,176/10,996= 20%
    Germany: 1,278/7,326= 17%
    Scotland: 797/5,835= 14%
    Wales: 126/922= 14%
    Belgium: 42/355= 12%
    Switzerland: 148/1,255= 12%
    France: 245/2,497= 10%
    Austria: 45/478= 9%
    Ireland: 569/7,767= 7%
    Poland: 173/2,633= 7%
    Yeah i'm one of those i never tested further than y12 on ftdna.

  11. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ruderico View Post
    You shouldn't really compare to total population because you might be skewing the result, but to the # of kits sampled
    Sweden: 1291/2850=45%, 10m
    Norway: 579/1537=38%, 5m
    Denmark: 202/555=36%, 6m
    Iceland: 42/132=32%, 0.3m
    Finland: 664/2421=27%, 6m
    Netherlands: 229/983=23%, 17m
    England: 2176/10996=20%, 55m
    UK: 736/4127=18%, 66m
    Germany: 1278/7326=17%, 83m
    Scotland: 797/5835=14%, 5m
    Wales: 126/922=14%, 3m
    Belgium: 42/355=12%, 11m
    Switzerland: 148/1255=12%, 8m
    France: 245/2497=10%, 67m
    Northern Ireland: 87/830=10%, 2m
    Austria: 45/478= 9%, 9m
    Ireland: 569/7767=7%, 5m
    Poland: 173/2633=7%, 38m

    I decided to include population totals to illustrate the sampling bias. Belgium has a slightly larger population than Sweden yet Sweden has 8 times as many samples. The British Isles has around 7 times the population of Belgium yet has 85 times as many samples. Thatís a disproportionate sampling bias of 12 to 1. I believe that sampling bias is going to negatively influence any theories we have regarding subclade distribution and tying them to particular historical events.

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  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by mwauthy View Post
    I decided to include population totals to illustrate the sampling bias. Belgium has a slightly larger population than Sweden yet Sweden has 8 times as many samples. The British Isles has around 7 times the population of Belgium yet has 85 times as many samples. Thatís a disproportionate sampling bias of 12 to 1. I believe that sampling bias is going to negatively influence any theories we have regarding subclade distribution and tying them to particular historical events.
    I wouldn't say that this kind of bias would affect any theories we have. For example, this won't affect a theory that assumes migration of I1a from Scandinavia to Britain, as I1a is relatively frequent in both regions and both regions are well represented among the FTDNA customers, so we can quite securely estimate the frequency of I1a in both Scandinavia and Britain (or even in specific countries/subregions). There is no doubt that I1a is most frequent in Scandinavia (and more specifically in Sweden), and this won't be changed after testing more people from underrepresented countries. Of course, the situation would be very different for some very rare subclades of I1a, especially when these subclades are occasionally seen in some countries that are strongly underrepresented among the FTDNA customers, like some countries in Eastern and SE Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Macedonia, Albania, etc.), as in all such cases it would much harder to analyze the relative frequencies in particular countries.

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  15. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michał View Post
    I wouldn't say that this kind of bias would affect any theories we have. For example, this won't affect a theory that assumes migration of I1a from Scandinavia to Britain, as I1a is relatively frequent in both regions and both regions are well represented among the FTDNA customers, so we can quite securely estimate the frequency of I1a in both Scandinavia and Britain (or even in specific countries/subregions). There is no doubt that I1a is most frequent in Scandinavia (and more specifically in Sweden), and this won't be changed after testing more people from underrepresented countries. Of course, the situation would be very different for some very rare subclades of I1a, especially when these subclades are occasionally seen in some countries that are strongly underrepresented among the FTDNA customers, like some countries in Eastern and SE Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Macedonia, Albania, etc.), as in all such cases it would much harder to analyze the relative frequencies in particular countries.
    I would have to agree. The lack of I1 within aDNA samples outside of Northern Europe seems to reflect our current theories.
    Y-DNA: I-A14097(Scotland),
    Big Y: I-F2642>Y1966>Y3649>A13241>Y3647>A14097 (1,850 YBP)
    mtDNA: pending (Westeremden, Netherlands)
    Other lines:
    R-M222 x2, R-L21 x2, I-M223, R-S1141, R-U198 & R-U106, mtHg J1c3
    Known ancestry
    Paternal: Britain & Ireland, France and Germany
    Maternal: Netherlands

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  17. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michał View Post
    I wouldn't say that this kind of bias would affect any theories we have. For example, this won't affect a theory that assumes migration of I1a from Scandinavia to Britain, as I1a is relatively frequent in both regions and both regions are well represented among the FTDNA customers, so we can quite securely estimate the frequency of I1a in both Scandinavia and Britain (or even in specific countries/subregions). There is no doubt that I1a is most frequent in Scandinavia (and more specifically in Sweden), and this won't be changed after testing more people from underrepresented countries. Of course, the situation would be very different for some very rare subclades of I1a, especially when these subclades are occasionally seen in some countries that are strongly underrepresented among the FTDNA customers, like some countries in Eastern and SE Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Macedonia, Albania, etc.), as in all such cases it would much harder to analyze the relative frequencies in particular countries.
    I agree with you that nothing is going to change the fact that I1a has its highest frequencies in Scandinavia. Iím simply alluding to the theories regarding the origins and distributions of subclades much farther downstream of I1a and how they can possibly be attributed to certain historical migrations.

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