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Thread: Who are the Palestinian Arabs, and how "indigenous" are they to Israel/Palestine?

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by hartaisarlag View Post
    Minor quibble, but that's ~5% of modern-day Palestinians in Palestine/Israel. In the global Palestinian diaspora, it's a much larger share.
    Wikipedia says they make up 6-7% of global Palestinian population, but they make up around 3.5% of the Palestinian population in Israel/Palestine, and most live in Israel.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_Christians
    Last edited by jonahst; 12-02-2018 at 06:38 PM.

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  3. #12
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    my model of Palestinians:


    Model Sample Details Fit Armenia MLBA Dinka Levant BA South Mycenaean
    Armenia_MLBA +Dinka +Levant_BA_South +Mycenaean Palestinian:Average 1.4017 23.33 5.83 60 10.83

    Saudi:

    Model Sample Details Fit Armenia MLBA Dinka Levant BA South Mycenaean
    Armenia_MLBA +Dinka +Levant_BA_South +Mycenaean Saudi:Average 4.1838 0 2.5 97.5 0


    when will this paper come out? my model of Palestinians was inspired by it.

    "The genetic origin and heritage of Bronze Age Canaanites

    Shai Carmi and David Reich

    "Canaanites were the indigenous population of the Southern Levant during the 2nd millennium BCE. Their genetic origin and impact on modern populations have recently started to unravel following an analysis of a Lebanese sample. To study Canaanites from other Levant regions and their genomic heritage in the broader Middle East, we sequenced five petrous bones from Megiddo, Israel, dated to the Middle/Late Bronze Age (BA) transition (≈3.5 KYA). We enriched the DNA for approximately 1.2 million SNP targets, followed by sequencing at coverage >0.25x. Using a combination of statistical tools (PCA, f-statistics, ADMIXTURE, qpAdm), we found that the Megiddo samples can be modeled as a mixture of earlier samples from the Levant and Iran, the latter possibly representing migration via Armenia. The Megiddo samples showed high similarity to older Levant BA samples, as well as to a later Iron Age (IA, ≈3 KYA) sample that we sequenced from Abel Beth Maacah in Northern Israel. The genomes of modern native Levantine populations trace ≈60% of their ancestry to IA Canaanites, ≈10% to Eastern Africa, and the remaining to less well characterized sources, possibly related to Iran. The genomes of Ashkenazi Jews can be modeled as ≈55% BA Canaanites and ≈45% Neolithic Central Europeans, and those of Iraqi Jews as ≈70% BA Canaanites and ≈30% Neolithic Iranians. To validate the results, we developed a novel extension of ChromoPainter that can take advantage of the information in linked SNPs to paint ancient chromosomes and model their ancestry. Our results confirm previous findings regarding the mixed Levantine-Iranian ancestry of BA Canaanites, and suggest remarkable continuity in the region throughout the Bronze and Iron Ages. Using existing and new methods, we characterized the ancestry of modern Middle-Eastern populations as a combination of pre-existing groups from the Middle-East and beyond."

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  5. #13
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    Palestinian dna

    Yes, Palestinian Christians seem to have more J2 (I have only seen anecdotes from a Christian webpage) and Palestinian Muslims more J1. This appears to be similar to the Lebanese situation. On K36 do Christians have more East Med and Muslims more Near East My hunch is that modern Levantines with high Natufian rates are more J1 than J2.

  6. #14
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    There was a subsequent paper by Reich's team. It covered a Chalcolithic sample from northern Israel. They found a third component from Anatolia ,The paper cautioned against reaching premature conclusions about the prehistory of Israel

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    Very politicised topic where some people have deep knowledge so I hesitate to offer too strong an opinion, but, I guess my view of the Palestinians, on the basis of the current ancient dna, is that from what we know now it seems pretty out there to still suggest that there was ever mass large scale population movement from deep in the south of even the centre of the Arabian Peninsula, or from Egypt, either recent or at any time around the expansion if Islam.

    But I think people have and still can argue plausibly for a fair bit of churn from the Syrian and Jordanian inland from the Levantine coast, the very northwest of the Arabian Peninsula and the north of Egypt may be possible, and probably to a much rather lesser extent the more eastern provinces of the empires the region has been under. I don't think it's crazy that that may have slightly overwritten some population links between the coast and Anatolia and the Eastern Med generally.

    Though I also think it seems not a good idea to try and define indigeneity by the standards of what the ancestral makeup was of Palestine in any brief periods in the long span of prehistory and history it was under some particular favoured kingdom or expression of religion and then freeze that definition in place as something that overrules subsequent history as a kind of "gold standard". When it is a place that has been in at least some degree of constant low level flux between related peoples and seen many empires and changes of religion and language. Of all the places on Earth, it seems difficult to pick one that is harder for this to be a valid and sound idea for.

  8. #16
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    A couple of needlessly political comments will be edited/removed shortly.

    It only took one nMonte run to reach the answer (with a marvelous fit to boot).

    Modelling the Palestinians as a simple combination of pre-Islamic Levant (represented by Druze & Samaritan), Arabian (BedouinB ) and Yoruba (surplus SSA) (cycles=1k, rest default)

    Code:
    	Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	BedouinB	Druze	Samaritan	Yoruba
    1	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:Average		1.0335	Open Map	20.83	67.5	7.5	4.17
    You don't get fits as good as this with less than five pops everyday!

    Looks like the Palestinians are predominantly indigenous to their region and are about 21% Peninsular Arab genetically on average.

    Agamemnon and Erikl86's deductions were spot on.

    (in case it needs stating, I have no bias in either direction)

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  10. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMXX View Post
    A couple of needlessly political comments will be edited/removed shortly.

    It only took one nMonte run to reach the answer (with a marvelous fit to boot).

    Modelling the Palestinians as a simple combination of pre-Islamic Levant (represented by Druze & Samaritan), Arabian (BedouinB ) and Yoruba (surplus SSA) (cycles=1k, rest default)

    Code:
    	Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	BedouinB	Druze	Samaritan	Yoruba
    1	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:Average		1.0335	Open Map	20.83	67.5	7.5	4.17
    You don't get fits as good as this with less than five pops everyday!

    Looks like the Palestinians are predominantly indigenous to their region and are about 21% Peninsular Arab genetically on average.

    Agamemnon and Erikl86's deductions were spot on.

    (in case it needs stating, I have no biases in either direction)
    Interesting, 21% Arabian is pretty high imo. Didn't know Arabs had such an impact with Palestinians besides known tribes.

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  12. #18
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    Re-ran the above model with individuals:

    Code:
    	Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	BedouinB	Druze	Samaritan	Yoruba
    1	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00675		2.3119	Open Map	16.67	64.17	15	4.17
    2	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00676		1.7254	Open Map	25	71.67	0	3.33
    3	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00677		1.9019	Open Map	14.17	79.17	2.5	4.17
    4	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00679		2.0917	Open Map	29.17	56.67	11.67	2.5
    5	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00683		2.5933	Open Map	20.83	49.17	24.17	5.83
    6	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00684		2.0461	Open Map	35.83	29.17	32.5	2.5
    7	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00685		1.5083	Open Map	31.67	29.17	31.67	7.5
    8	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00688		2.0141	Open Map	10	85.83	0	4.17
    9	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00689		1.6677	Open Map	26.67	53.33	15.83	4.17
    10	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00690		1.6616	Open Map	23.33	73.33	0	3.33
    11	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:S_Palestinian-2		1.8824	Open Map	16.67	80	0	3.33
    12	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:S_Palestinian-3		1.5946	Open Map	15.83	64.17	15.83	4.17
    The Peninsular Arab contribution is highly variable (10-36%), with the rest mostly being Druze-Samaritan-like. The additional SSA ancestry appears to range from 3-8%.

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  14. #19
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    Under Global 25 you should probably get better fit with Egyptians than BedouinB+Yoruba. Looks like there's some sort of North African+East Africa vs Arabian drift dimension there where Egyptian fits better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eterne View Post
    Under Global 25 you should probably get better fit with Egyptians than BedouinB+Yoruba. Looks like there's some sort of North African+East Africa vs Arabian drift dimension there where Egyptian fits better.
    Doesn't seem so, actually:

    Code:
    	Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	Druze	Egyptian	Samaritan
    1	Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan	Palestinian:Average		1.2391	Open Map	55	38.8	6.2
    The fit worsens despite using less ref pops.

    [Edit]: I also don't see any real utility in trying to improve the (average) fit, given it's as close to perfect as one could hope to see.

    [Edit 2]: Check this out:

    Code:
    	Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	BedouinB	Druze	Egyptian	Samaritan	Yoruba
    1	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00675		2.2714	Open Map	11.67	65.83	13.33	6.67	2.5
    2	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00676		1.4542	Open Map	14.17	63.33	20.83	0	1.67
    3	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00677		1.6252	Open Map	6.67	67.5	24.17	0	1.67
    4	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00679		1.9729	Open Map	25	55	11.67	6.67	1.67
    5	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00683		2.015	Open Map	6.67	45.83	37.5	7.5	2.5
    6	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00684		1.9434	Open Map	32.5	30	8.33	27.5	1.67
    7	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00685		1.2565	Open Map	20.83	25.83	30.83	18.33	4.17
    8	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00688		1.9977	Open Map	0.83	74.17	23.33	0	1.67
    9	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00689		1.7139	Open Map	21.67	52.5	13.33	10	2.5
    10	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:HGDP00690		1.5119	Open Map	18.33	66.67	12.5	0	2.5
    11	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:S_Palestinian-2		1.7937	Open Map	14.17	75.83	7.5	0	2.5
    12	BedouinB +Druze +Egyptian +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:S_Palestinian-3		1.1916	Open Map	5.83	57.5	25	10	1.67
    Adding Egyptian into the Pre-Islamic Levant+Bedouin+Yoruba model improved all of the individual fits, so your comment about a North African-derived ancestral stream in Egyptians looks correct here.

    The obvious confounding factor here is that Egyptians have some Arabian ancestry themselves. Using a pre-Islamic Egyptian ancient would do the trick.

    Even then, however, note that all Palestinians above are more Samaritan-Druze than they are Egyptian-like.

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