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Thread: Who are the Palestinian Arabs, and how "indigenous" are they to Israel/Palestine?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DMXX View Post
    Looks like the Palestinians are predominantly indigenous to their region and are about 21% Peninsular Arab genetically on average.
    To put it into perspective, ~80% is about the same degree of continuity that you see in Aegean Greeks vis--vis Mycenaeans, and 70% in mainland Greeks. So more than 65% is pretty good.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMXX View Post
    A couple of needlessly political comments will be edited/removed shortly.

    It only took one nMonte run to reach the answer (with a marvelous fit to boot).

    Modelling the Palestinians as a simple combination of pre-Islamic Levant (represented by Druze & Samaritan), Arabian (BedouinB ) and Yoruba (surplus SSA) (cycles=1k, rest default)

    Code:
    	Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	BedouinB	Druze	Samaritan	Yoruba
    1	BedouinB +Druze +Samaritan +Yoruba	Palestinian:Average		1.0335	Open Map	20.83	67.5	7.5	4.17
    You don't get fits as good as this with less than five pops everyday!

    Looks like the Palestinians are predominantly indigenous to their region and are about 21% Peninsular Arab genetically on average.

    Agamemnon and Erikl86's deductions were spot on.

    (in case it needs stating, I have no bias in either direction)
    You get a better fit by replacing 'bedouinB' with Saudis and 'Yoruba' with Dinka, but the results are similar; 20% Arabian + 5% SSA.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Michalis Moriopoulos View Post
    To put it into perspective, ~80% is about the same degree of continuity that you see in Aegean Greeks vis--vis Mycenaeans, and 70% in mainland Greeks. So more than 65% is pretty good.
    Mainland Greeks have significant ancestry from South Slavs , from what I saw on G25, they are 50-65% descended from Mycenaean like populations, Southern Italians in particular Sicilians can be modeled as 75-85% Mycenaean which makes sense historically it was settled by Iron Age Greeks and this part of Italy was part of Magna Graecia . I am sure once Iron Age/Early Antiquity Greek samples come out, they can be modeled as 90-95% with them.
    Last edited by pegasus; 12-03-2018 at 03:10 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pegasus View Post
    Mainland Greeks have significant ancestry from South Slavs , from what I saw on G25, they are 50-65% descended from Mycenaean like populations, Southern Italians in particular Sicilians can be modeled as 75-85% Mycenaean which makes sense historically it was settled by Iron Age Greeks and this part of Italy was part of Magna Graecia . I am sure once Iron Age/Early Antiquity Greek samples come out, they can be modeled as 90-95% with them.
    I have seen 70% Mycenaean, 30% Slavic (not South Slavic but Polish-like) for mainland Greeks, but this is an average. Some regions will have even higher Slavic than this, others lower.

    My guess is Apulians can be modeled with Mycenaean up into the 90%s but I think even with classical Greeks, we will still find Sicilians having about 20-25% post-Neolithic MENA input.

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    I don't think it matters how much 'indigenous' they are, when they are the only indigenous people to that land. With that said, they probably have 20% Arabian blood at most.

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    Now you've done it m8.... I'mma pop me some corn n watch the show

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seabass View Post
    I don't recall too many Christian Palestinian gedmatch results but from what I remember, they seem to cluster more with the Druze than Samaritans. I think oddly as well, a Palestinian Christian I saw seemed not as close to the Samaritan as a Lebanese Christian, ie less Southern/early bronze age Levantine shifted.
    Druzes have on average 20-30% more Anatolian-like admixture when compared to Samaritans. Palestinians are much more closer to the latter than to the former, who plot more closely with Northern Syrians due to elevated Anatolian/Caucasus input.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bar View Post
    You get a better fit by replacing 'bedouinB' with Saudis and 'Yoruba' with Dinka, but the results are similar; 20% Arabian + 5% SSA.
    The sentence you're responding to is an idiomatic one (you've read it as a statement, which it isn't, but I'll respond all the same).

    Replacing BedouinB with Saudi worsens the fit only by a pinch (all models below cycles=1k rest default):

    Code:
    	Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	Druze	Samaritan	Saudi	Yoruba
    1	Druze +Samaritan +Saudi +Yoruba	Palestinian:Average		1.082	Open Map	63.33	11.67	20.83	4.17
    This is the model you proposed:

    Code:
    Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	Dinka	Druze	Samaritan	Saudi
    1	Dinka +Druze +Samaritan +Saudi	Palestinian:Average		0.8275	Open Map	5	66.67	7.5	20.83
    Clearly, the big improvement only comes with replacing Yoruba with Dinka. Applying that to the BedouinB model:

    Code:
    	Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	BedouinB	Dinka	Druze	Samaritan
    1	BedouinB +Dinka +Druze +Samaritan	Palestinian:Average		0.7268	Open Map	21.67	4.17	70	4.17
    Coming from an experience base involving West, Central and South Asian models, fit=0.72 with only four ref pops is pretty unbelievable.

    The above (our combined modelling) does show that the 20-22% Peninsular Arab, 67-76% Levant and 4-5% SSA proportion set is pretty resilient, though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DMXX View Post
    The sentence you're responding to is an idiomatic one (you've read it as a statement, which it isn't, but I'll respond all the same).

    Replacing BedouinB with Saudi only worsens the fit by a pinch (all models below cycles=1k rest default):

    Code:
    	Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	Druze	Samaritan	Saudi	Yoruba
    1	Druze +Samaritan +Saudi +Yoruba	Palestinian:Average		1.082	Open Map	63.33	11.67	20.83	4.17
    This is the model you proposed:

    Code:
    Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	Dinka	Druze	Samaritan	Saudi
    1	Dinka +Druze +Samaritan +Saudi	Palestinian:Average		0.8275	Open Map	5	66.67	7.5	20.83
    Clearly, the big improvement only comes with replacing Yoruba with Dinka. Applying that to the BedouinB model:

    Code:
    	Model	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	BedouinB	Dinka	Druze	Samaritan
    1	BedouinB +Dinka +Druze +Samaritan	Palestinian:Average		0.7268	Open Map	21.67	4.17	70	4.17
    Coming from an experience base involving West, Central and South Asian models, fit=0.72 with only four ref pops is pretty unbelievable.

    The above (our combined modelling) does show that the 20-22% Peninsular Arab, 67-76% Levant and 4-5% SSA proportion set is pretty resilient, though.
    in this model, Druze is assumed to be similar to pre-Arabic substrate, but is there any evidence of that ?

    what I know is that there is a cline: Levant_BA_North to Levant_BA_South with decreasing Iran_ChL ancestry, and the Palestinian model differs depending on which you choose.

    try modeling them only with ancient samples. if you choose Levant_BA_South you probably don't need Arabian.
    Last edited by IronHorse; 12-03-2018 at 04:31 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IronHorse View Post
    in this model, Druze is assumed to be similar to pre-Arabic substrate, but is there any evidence of that ?
    Yes, circumstantial evidence.

    All of the non-Arabic-speaking minorities in the Levant and Mesopotamia are highly similar to one another genetically. It stands to reason that they represent the genetic landscape of the pre-Islamic Levant and Mesopotamia.

    The Globe25 fits show the Druze are quite close to Samaritans, all local Jewish populations and the Assyrians. The fits are <4. For perspective, that puts the Druze and the Assyrians as close to another as the Swedes are to the Scots.

    That simply isn't a coincidence.

    what I know is that there is a cline: Levant_BA_North to Levant_BA_South with decreasing Iran_ChL ancestry, and the Palestinian model differs depending on which you choose.

    try modeling them only with ancient samples.
    We don't have the ancients in question to accurately model Levant groups just yet (I also wouldn't use that ~5kya cline to measure up the Palestinians, particularly as you aren't able to properly characterise the introduced pop with any ancient samples).

    Your approach also doesn't neatly separate Peninsular Arab admixture from whatever autochthonous groups eventually contributed to the Palestinians - They're all going to be combinations of Levant_N, Iran_ChL, EEF and SSA.

    The samples you're using are too ancient and therefore lack the sort of informative recent drift we need to delineate the Peninsular Arab contribution from the "indigenous".

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