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Thread: Southeast Europe/Balkans: From Neolithic to Modern times

  1. #1
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    Southeast Europe/Balkans: From Neolithic to Modern times

    Dear all, here's a quick and dirty PCA that I've put together to follow the timeline of genetic change in Southeast Europe/Balkans. The focus is on North Balkans.

    We need more data obviously, but so far I find this development logical.

    Here's some prereading for some of the assumptions:
    1. https://indo-european.info/indo-euro..._province-.htm

    1. https://anthrogenica.com/showthread....l=1#post540818


    Let me know how you see the situation unfolding from your points of view.
    Without more hard data, there's still plenty of room for other theories and assumptions.

    Last edited by Dorkymon; 01-25-2019 at 02:28 PM.
    Known ancestry: 1/2 Romanian Northeast + 1/4 Romanian Southeast + 1/4 Romanian Bukovina Ukraine
    23andme: 53.6% Greek & Balkan (4% Broadly South Euro), 35.7% East Euro, 0.3% Ashkenazi Jewish, 6.5% Broadly Euro
    MyHeritage: 92.2% Balkan, 5.8% English, 1.1% Eskimo, 0.9% Japanese
    FTDNA: 45% Southeast Euro, 45% East Euro, 4% British Isles, 3% West Middle East, 2% NE Asia
    Global 25: Anatolia_N 50.2%, EHG 32.6%, CHG 11.2%, WHG 3.8%, East Asian 2.2%
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  3. #2
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    Your PCA emphasizes only HG-Farmers cline. Steppe is underrepresented. l would also plot Avar Szolad and Bohemian Slavic samples, Baltic_BA, CW_Baltic. Where do you think are located Illyrians, Iapodes, Celts...
    Last edited by ph2ter; 01-25-2019 at 02:55 PM.
     
    Paper Trail MyHeritage K36 G25 Mod. FTDNA
    NW Croatian 87.5%
    Slovenian 6.25%
    Unknown 6.25%
    E. Europe 35.7%
    Balkan 34.4%
    Scandinavia 21.2%
    Baltic 8.7%
    Grenzmark 0.94
    Czechs 0.93,
    Hungary 0.91
    Volhyn 0.91,
    C. Rusyns 0.91
    Slovenia 0.91
    Czech 1.79
    Hungarian 2.02
    Slovenian 2.07
    Croatian 2.39
    Ukrainian 3.01
    East Europe 99%
    Trace 1%

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     Dorkymon (01-25-2019)

  5. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by ph2ter View Post
    Your PCA emphasizes only HG-Farmers cline. Steppe is underrepresented. l would also plot Avar Szolad and Bohemian Slavic samples. Where do you think are located Illyrians, Iapodes, Celts...
    Hmm, yes I agree with CHG being underrepresented.
    Which dimensions should I use for that? I chose 1 to 8 here.

    Yes, I need to edit it to add these supposedly Slavic samples.

    I'm not familiar enough with Illyrians personally, but they could be shifted towards Central Europe compared to the rest of their contemporaries.
    Known ancestry: 1/2 Romanian Northeast + 1/4 Romanian Southeast + 1/4 Romanian Bukovina Ukraine
    23andme: 53.6% Greek & Balkan (4% Broadly South Euro), 35.7% East Euro, 0.3% Ashkenazi Jewish, 6.5% Broadly Euro
    MyHeritage: 92.2% Balkan, 5.8% English, 1.1% Eskimo, 0.9% Japanese
    FTDNA: 45% Southeast Euro, 45% East Euro, 4% British Isles, 3% West Middle East, 2% NE Asia
    Global 25: Anatolia_N 50.2%, EHG 32.6%, CHG 11.2%, WHG 3.8%, East Asian 2.2%
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  6. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dorkymon View Post
    Hmm, yes I agree with CHG being underrepresented.
    Which dimensions should I use for that? I chose 1 to 8 here.

    Yes, I need to edit it to add these supposedly Slavic samples.

    I'm not familiar enough with Illyrians personally, but they could be shifted towards Central Europe compared to the rest of their contemporaries.
    Use all G25 25 dimensions and make PCA plot of them.
    CHG is not identical to Steppe (Steppe is about 60% EHG, 30% CHG and rest belongs to Central Asia and EEF).
     
    Paper Trail MyHeritage K36 G25 Mod. FTDNA
    NW Croatian 87.5%
    Slovenian 6.25%
    Unknown 6.25%
    E. Europe 35.7%
    Balkan 34.4%
    Scandinavia 21.2%
    Baltic 8.7%
    Grenzmark 0.94
    Czechs 0.93,
    Hungary 0.91
    Volhyn 0.91,
    C. Rusyns 0.91
    Slovenia 0.91
    Czech 1.79
    Hungarian 2.02
    Slovenian 2.07
    Croatian 2.39
    Ukrainian 3.01
    East Europe 99%
    Trace 1%

  7. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by ph2ter View Post
    Use all G25 25 dimensions and make PCA plot of them.
    CHG is not identical to Steppe (Steppe is about 60% EHG, 30% CHG and rest belongs to Central Asia and EEF).
    Thanks, l'll work on that.

    As far as Yamna is concerned though, actual academic studies model both Samara and Ukraine ones as about 55/45 EHG/CHG (see the supplementary data from Mathieson et al 2018). Reich also quotes a 1:1 ratio in his book. I know that we get way less than that with G25.
    Known ancestry: 1/2 Romanian Northeast + 1/4 Romanian Southeast + 1/4 Romanian Bukovina Ukraine
    23andme: 53.6% Greek & Balkan (4% Broadly South Euro), 35.7% East Euro, 0.3% Ashkenazi Jewish, 6.5% Broadly Euro
    MyHeritage: 92.2% Balkan, 5.8% English, 1.1% Eskimo, 0.9% Japanese
    FTDNA: 45% Southeast Euro, 45% East Euro, 4% British Isles, 3% West Middle East, 2% NE Asia
    Global 25: Anatolia_N 50.2%, EHG 32.6%, CHG 11.2%, WHG 3.8%, East Asian 2.2%
    Hidden Content

  8. #6
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    Here's the new version of the PCA. Open it in a new tab, zoom in and enjoy

    Known ancestry: 1/2 Romanian Northeast + 1/4 Romanian Southeast + 1/4 Romanian Bukovina Ukraine
    23andme: 53.6% Greek & Balkan (4% Broadly South Euro), 35.7% East Euro, 0.3% Ashkenazi Jewish, 6.5% Broadly Euro
    MyHeritage: 92.2% Balkan, 5.8% English, 1.1% Eskimo, 0.9% Japanese
    FTDNA: 45% Southeast Euro, 45% East Euro, 4% British Isles, 3% West Middle East, 2% NE Asia
    Global 25: Anatolia_N 50.2%, EHG 32.6%, CHG 11.2%, WHG 3.8%, East Asian 2.2%
    Hidden Content

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  10. #7
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    Very fancy.
     
    Paper Trail MyHeritage K36 G25 Mod. FTDNA
    NW Croatian 87.5%
    Slovenian 6.25%
    Unknown 6.25%
    E. Europe 35.7%
    Balkan 34.4%
    Scandinavia 21.2%
    Baltic 8.7%
    Grenzmark 0.94
    Czechs 0.93,
    Hungary 0.91
    Volhyn 0.91,
    C. Rusyns 0.91
    Slovenia 0.91
    Czech 1.79
    Hungarian 2.02
    Slovenian 2.07
    Croatian 2.39
    Ukrainian 3.01
    East Europe 99%
    Trace 1%

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  12. #8
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    Thank you, we needed something like this specifically for Balkan people.

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     Dorkymon (01-30-2019)

  14. #9
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    I'll run a series of PCAs for estimating the amount of Native (i.e. whatever was in the region in either Bronze Age or Iron Age if available) vs Migration Period Slavic ancestry.
    Here's the first run with Croatia.

    According to my estimate, modern Croats should range between 20-50% in native ancestry.



    Here's the cross-check with Global25
    Code:
    [1] "distance%=2.2635"
    
    	 Croatian:Croatia_Cro133
    
    Slavic_Migration Period,81.6666666666667
    Croatia Bronze Age,18.3333333333333
    
    
    [1] "distance%=2.6765"
    
    	 Croatian:Croatia_Cro140
    
    Slavic_Migration Period,53.3333333333333
    Croatia Bronze Age,46.6666666666667
    
    
    [1] "distance%=2.3636"
    
    	 Croatian:Croatia_Cro141
    
    Slavic_Migration Period,81.6666666666667
    Croatia Bronze Age,18.3333333333333
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.9844"
    
    	 Croatian:Croatia_Cro142
    
    Slavic_Migration Period,65.8333333333333
    Croatia Bronze Age,34.1666666666667
    
    
    [1] "distance%=2.2638"
    
    	 Croatian:Croatia_Cro198
    
    Slavic_Migration Period,73.3333333333333
    Croatia Bronze Age,26.6666666666667
    
    
    [1] "distance%=2.3499"
    
    	 Croatian:Croatia_Cro26
    
    Slavic_Migration Period,78.3333333333333
    Croatia Bronze Age,21.6666666666667
    
    
    [1] "distance%=2.0923"
    
    	 Croatian:Croatia_Cro302
    
    Slavic_Migration Period,74.1666666666667
    Croatia Bronze Age,25.8333333333333
    
    
    [1] "distance%=2.0421"
    
    	 Croatian:Croatia_Cro305
    
    Slavic_Migration Period,57.5
    Croatia Bronze Age,42.5
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.8533"
    
    	 Croatian:Croatia_Cro43
    
    Slavic_Migration Period,79.1666666666667
    Croatia Bronze Age,20.8333333333333
    
    
    [1] "distance%=3.3269"
    
    	 Croatian:Croatia_Cro53
    
    Slavic_Migration Period,57.5
    Croatia Bronze Age,42.5
    Code:
    ,PC1,PC2,PC3,PC4,PC5,PC6,PC7,PC8,PC9,PC10,PC11,PC12,PC13,PC14,PC15,PC16,PC17,PC18,PC19,PC20,PC21,PC22,PC23,PC24,PC25
    Slavic_Migration Period:Avar_Hungary_Szolad_Av1,0.133173,0.132019,0.065996,0.049419,0.039392,0.024542,0.00893,0.008769,0.003886,-0.013668,-0.00065,-0.007343,0.008325,0.014863,-0.012486,0.005304,-0.005346,0.00228,0.002388,0.002126,-0.001497,-0.002844,0.007888,-0.006748,0.000838
    Slavic_Migration Period:Avar_Hungary_Szolad_Av2,0.134311,0.126941,0.081458,0.065569,0.035391,0.033746,0.00987,0.005769,0.004704,-0.02278,-0.002436,-0.005395,0.01219,0.020643,-0.015201,-0.003845,0.005867,0.004561,0.008673,5e-04,0.001497,-0.00272,0.013804,-0.007109,0.002634
    Slavic_Migration Period:Slavic_Bohemia_RISE569,0.12862,0.129988,0.068259,0.046835,0.02739,0.013108,0.007285,0.014076,-0.001841,-0.018224,-0.000812,-0.004496,0.003717,0.007294,-0.011129,-0.003182,0.011474,-0.002027,-0.002388,-0.004752,0.005615,0.000742,0.001725,-0.001084,-0.006706
    Croatia Bronze Age:Balkans_BA_I3313,0.132035,0.151314,0.033941,-0.01615,0.024928,-0.005857,-0.006345,0.007154,0.003681,0.028976,0.001786,0.01169,-0.02111,-0.001376,-0.005972,-0.008486,-0.006519,0.004941,0.005531,-0.014257,-0.001872,0.00507,0.001479,0.00253,0.003353
    Croatia Bronze Age:Balkans_BA_I4331,0.12862,0.151314,0.028284,-0.007429,0.038776,-0.006972,-0.00705,-0.006,0.003681,0.028064,0.006171,0.010341,-0.017542,-0.003578,-0.0076,0.006497,0.008084,-0.003041,0.006159,-0.011631,-0.005865,-0.001113,-0.00037,0.003856,-0.001197
    Croatia Bronze Age:Balkans_BA_I4332,0.120652,0.147252,0.034318,-0.012274,0.038469,0.002231,-0.00423,0.001154,0.009613,0.032074,-0.006008,0.01094,-0.012487,-0.014726,-0.005972,0.01074,0.02047,-0.00114,0.000754,-0.011005,-0.001248,0.008656,-0.00419,0.002048,-0.002395
    Croatia Bronze Age:Vucedol_I3499,0.119514,0.148267,0.015839,-0.01615,0.032621,-0.010877,-0.00329,-0.001385,0.006954,0.014943,0.004547,0.011989,-0.023042,-0.009909,-0.002307,-0.008751,0.001434,-0.003547,0.006536,0.003252,0.000499,-0.001855,0.003204,-0.001566,-0.017364
    Known ancestry: 1/2 Romanian Northeast + 1/4 Romanian Southeast + 1/4 Romanian Bukovina Ukraine
    23andme: 53.6% Greek & Balkan (4% Broadly South Euro), 35.7% East Euro, 0.3% Ashkenazi Jewish, 6.5% Broadly Euro
    MyHeritage: 92.2% Balkan, 5.8% English, 1.1% Eskimo, 0.9% Japanese
    FTDNA: 45% Southeast Euro, 45% East Euro, 4% British Isles, 3% West Middle East, 2% NE Asia
    Global 25: Anatolia_N 50.2%, EHG 32.6%, CHG 11.2%, WHG 3.8%, East Asian 2.2%
    Hidden Content

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  16. #10
    What about the shift in y axis?

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