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Thread: Big Y-700

  1. #1501
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
    There are studies suggesting that the mutation rate is not even the same between all haplogroups. Some may mutate faster than others. But generally speaking, 100 years is still rather too low, yet there is no general consensus and the best proof comes from ancient DNA I'd say.
    I5748 from Oostwoud is, perhaps, DF19>Z2302* (nothing found below Z302) and he dates back to 2579-2211 calBCE. So 4600-4200 years ago. Z302 currently sits on a stack of 50 known SNPs.
    So that's 84-92 years per SNP?
    Last edited by Dewsloth; 06-18-2021 at 09:45 PM.
    R1b>M269>L23>L51>L11>P312>DF19>DF88>FGC11833 >S4281>S4268>Z17112>BY44243

    Ancestors: Francis Cooke (M223/I2a2a) b1583; Hester Mahieu (Cooke) (J1c2 mtDNA) b.1584; Richard Warren (E-M35) b1578; Elizabeth Walker (Warren) (H1j mtDNA) b1583;
    John Mead (I2a1/P37.2) b1634; Rev. Joseph Hull (I1, L1301+ L1302-) b1595; Benjamin Harrington (M223/I2a2a-Y5729) b1618; Joshua Griffith (L21>DF13) b1593;
    John Wing (U106) b1584; Thomas Gunn (DF19) b1605; Hermann Wilhelm (DF19) b1635

  2. #1502
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    I tested with Nebula + Yfull and I have 15 reliable SNP plus an ambiguous one for 1500 years.

    Does the number of generations influence mutation rates? Maybe in certain cultures men tend to have children at older ages thus reducing the number of generations and mutation rates.

  3. #1503
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
    Isn't 80 years per SNP kind of short? There are different models and calculations out there, but 80 years is very much at the lowest possible end.
    83 years per mutation is the usual figure given for Y700 tests. If I remember correctly, Y500 tests are calculated at 131 years per mutation because of the lower coverage in those tests. YFull uses 144.41 years because they restrict their calculations to SNPs that are only found in the combBED region, for dating purposes.
    Last edited by JMcB; 06-19-2021 at 02:27 AM.
    Paper Trail: 42.25% English, 31.25% Scottish, 12.5% Irish, 6.25% German, 6.25% Sicilian & 1.5% French. Or: 86% British Isles, 6.25% German, 6.25% Sicilian & 1.5% French.
    LDNA(c): 86.3% British Isles (48.6% English, 37.7% Scottish & Irish), 7.8% NW Germanic, 5.9% Europe South (Aegean 3.4%, Tuscany 1.3%, Sardinia 1.1%)
    BigY 700: I1-Z140 >I-F2642 >Y1966 >Y3649 >A13241 >Y3647 >A13248 (circa 620 AD) >A13242/YSEQ (circa 765 AD) >FT80854 (circa 1650 AD).

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  5. #1504
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewsloth View Post
    I5478 is, perhaps, DF19>Z2302* (nothing found below Z302) and he dates back to 2579-2211 calBCE. So 4600-4200 years ago. Z302 currently sits on a stack of 50 known SNPs.
    So that's 84-92 years per SNP?
    Good example. Since there are some families out there which tested different male descendents, we know that even in just a couple of generations the variation of SNP mutations can be pretty big.

    Z2302 has two big branches of which one has about 47 and the other 34 SNPs. If we calculate the average of about 40 SNPs. But the difference between these two branches R-Z35646 and R-Z39292 is remarkable already. Especially if considering that these are no small branches after all, but there should be some averaging out.

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  7. #1505
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    In our studies within the Fitzpatrick DNA project we are down to 45-50 years/SNP with some of our groups. These are based on proven paper trails some of which go back to the late 1400’s most into the 1600’s. If we used 80 years on these blocks the origin of surnames would have taken place about the year 600 AD.

    But there is great inconsistency between individual lines due to the inconsistency of the testing We do not observe it being based on different mutation rates in each line.

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  9. #1506
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    Quote Originally Posted by IanFitzpatrick View Post
    In our studies within the Fitzpatrick DNA project we are down to 45-50 years/SNP with some of our groups. These are based on proven paper trails some of which go back to the late 1400’s most into the 1600’s. If we used 80 years on these blocks the origin of surnames would have taken place about the year 600 AD.

    But there is great inconsistency between individual lines due to the inconsistency of the testing We do not observe it being based on different mutation rates in each line.
    Does the use of both SNP mutation rates and STR dating methods help to reduce the inconsistencies?
    https://learn.familytreedna.com/y-dn...s-interpreted/

    While I don't have a paper trail to support my research, I do find an overlap in the 2 methods...SNP date range being older, and STR date range being younger, with an overlap in the 1100s to 1200s AD for 3 men that have done 111 markers, and Big-Y 700.
    Y DNA line continued: Z142>Z12222>FGC12378>FGC12401>FGC12384
    37% English, 26% Scot/Ulster Scot, 14% Welsh, 14% German, 3% Ireland, 3% Nordic, 2% French/Dutch, 1% India
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  11. #1507
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    STR dating is fine if you have a large enough sample size and can statistically even out the aging amongst the group. You can get fairly close with a group TMRCA and in most cases that will match up with the SNP ageing.

    There is only one method that is reasonably accurate and that involves historical "mile markers" , STR group TMRCA's and SNP counts, with again large enough sample sizes. You need to remove the influence of outliers. The outliers are common in almost every line, if you are comparing only a few men it is difficult to identify which one is an outlier and remove the influence it has on the big picture.

    Trying to age a line with only a few results (SNP's or STR's) is so inconsistent you will probably be in the +-200 year range. Using mile markers and large enough sample sizes you can get within +-40 years with reasonable confidence.
    Last edited by IanFitzpatrick; 06-21-2021 at 12:03 PM.

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  13. #1508
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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerMW View Post
    FTDNA's R&D Director, Göran Runfeldt, participated in a tele-video conference where he exposed a new tool FTDNA has internally - the "Time Tree".

    The "VIKING DNA comparisons with FamilyTreeDNA" Youtube presentation with Göran Runfeldt and a Swedish business partner.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krmKE1Jd49Y

    Multiple people with Scandinavian descent have submitted Big Y results to compare with ancient DNA Viking finds that FTDNA has analyzed. These cases are reviewed in the presentation.

    It's very interesting to see how ancient DNA samples can be used by modern Big Y testers. In this regards, it may be Medieval ancient DNA that is most important.


    This looks promising! It's quite informative to follow the video and look some of the clades up on the Block Tree. For instance - at about 9:01 they talk about I-Y3379. The Swede and the Estonian have an average of 18 private SNPs with a TMRCA at about 850 AD. That's roughly 62 years per SNP.

    Then, an Albanian and a Hungarian from neighbouring clade, FT110841, have a TMRCA 1000 ybp with 11 private SNPs on average. That's about 89 years per SNP. So quite a difference!

    Overall, it seems most of those branches' mutation rates fall within 60-90 years per SNP range. I wonder what additional considerations they are taking into account. I bet they must highly rely on STRs.

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  15. #1509
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    If anyone is interested here is our latest Fitzpatrick Journal entry which is an example of how the dating and research into the history can confirm the mutation rates for a distinct haplogroup that goes back to the origin of surnames.

    https://www.fitzpatrickclan.org/The%...c_4ykGf5nBRBtI

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  17. #1510
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    Goran’s update, “June saw 1,642 new branches added to the Y DNA Haplotree - the largest number since January 2019 when the Big Y-700 was launched. — at Family Tree DNA.”

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/...nch_Growth.jpg
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/...ant_Growth.jpg

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