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Thread: España y Portugal en modelos simples

  1. #21
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    En general parece bastante correcto, pero para Cantabria, Cataluña y Aragón el aporte norte-africano parece demasiado elevado, tendría que estar en el rango de 2-4%
    Usando la muestra de origen norte-africano Iberia Central CA Afr I4246 en vez de Guanche11 (que tiene aporte europeo) :
    Para aporte Romano/Este Mediterráneo utilizo un griego antiguo de Empúries (I8208)

    [1] "distance%=2.3461 / distance=0.023461"

    Spanish_Cantabria
    Iberia_North_IA 83.3
    Iberia_Northeast_Hel:I8208 14.3
    Iberia_Central_CA_Afr:I4246 2.4

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweuro View Post
    En general parece bastante correcto, pero para Cantabria, Cataluña y Aragón el aporte norte-africano parece demasiado elevado, tendría que estar en el rango de 2-4%
    Usando la muestra de origen norte-africano Iberia Central CA Afr I4246 en vez de Guanche11 (que tiene aporte europeo) :
    Para aporte Romano/Este Mediterráneo utilizo un griego antiguo de Empúries (I8208)

    [1] "distance%=2.3461 / distance=0.023461"

    Spanish_Cantabria
    Iberia_North_IA 83.3
    Iberia_Northeast_Hel:I8208 14.3
    Iberia_Central_CA_Afr:I4246 2.4
    Hey, thanks for replying.
    Yes it might be a bit elevated for a few references, but not too much. I interpret the higher-than-expected results as a high-end estimation of sorts, for example my Missus never got a result this high, whereas mine is a bit lower than usual (I generally score less, but still close, to the Portuguese reference..here I'm 3% lower for whatever reason).




    Cantabria is in the purple area, or the beggining of the blue area, so I estimate somewhere between 3,5% to 5,5% should be okay. 5,4% might be a maximum, but not totally irrealistic.
    Whatever the "real" value is - as the result depends on the source, Guanche11 and NorthMorocco have some European ancestry - it's clearly much lower than what we have here in the west.
    YDNA E-Y31991>PF4428>Y134097>Y134104>Y168273>FT17866 (TMRCA ~1000AD) - Domingos Rodrigues, b. circa 1690 Hidden Content , Viana do Castelo, Portugal - Stonemason, miller.
    mtDNA H20 - Monica Vieira, b. circa 1700 Hidden Content , Porto, Portugal

    Hidden Content
    Global25 PCA West Eurasia dataset Hidden Content

    [1] "distance%=1.5077"

    Ruderico

    Iberia_IA,41.2
    Gaul_Velaux_IA,39.8
    Berber_EMA,11.6
    Roman_Colonial,7.4

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  5. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ruderico View Post
    Hey, thanks for replying.
    Yes it might be a bit elevated for a few references, but not too much. I interpret the higher-than-expected results as a high-end estimation of sorts, for example my Missus never got a result this high, whereas mine is a bit lower than usual (I generally score less, but still close, to the Portuguese reference..here I'm 3% lower for whatever reason).




    Cantabria is in the purple area, or the beggining of the blue area, so I estimate somewhere between 3,5% to 5,5% should be okay. 5,4% might be a maximum, but not totally irrealistic.
    Whatever the "real" value is - as the result depends on the source, Guanche11 and NorthMorocco have some European ancestry - it's clearly much lower than what we have here in the west.
    I don't know what that map is, but based on the nMontes that I've done with iberians all these years Cantabrians consistently give me the 2-4% range.


    Using modern populations that don't have any North-African (just for the purpose of isolating the North-African component):

    [1] "distance%=1.1257 / distance=0.011257"

    Spanish_Cantabria

    Basque_French 48.7
    French_South 17.6
    Italian_Tuscan 17.4
    French 12.9
    Moroccan 3.3


    Using ancient samples with different models :


    [1] "distance%=2.5104 / distance=0.025104"

    Spanish_Cantabria

    Iberia_North_MLN 54.65
    Yamnaya_Kalmykia 27.60
    Anatolia_EBA_Isparta 14.60
    Moroccan 3.15


    [1] "distance%=1.9934 / distance=0.019934"

    Spanish_Cantabria

    Hallstatt_Bylany 41.40
    Iberia_BA 37.90
    Anatolia_BA 12.35
    Portugal_MBA 6.15
    Moroccan 2.20



    [1] "distance%=2.3461 / distance=0.023461"

    Spanish_Cantabria

    Iberia_North_IA 83.3
    Iberia_Northeast_Hel:I8208 14.3
    Iberia_Central_CA_Afr:I4246 2.4

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  7. #24
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    It's a paper that was publish not too long ago Patterns of genetic differentiation and the footprints of historical migrations in the Iberian Peninsula
    Personally I give more relevance to these studies than any nMonte models, since studies were done by academics

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08272-w


    That image was actually from the preprint, the final version updated the values.
    Last edited by Ruderico; 03-20-2019 at 06:31 PM.
    YDNA E-Y31991>PF4428>Y134097>Y134104>Y168273>FT17866 (TMRCA ~1000AD) - Domingos Rodrigues, b. circa 1690 Hidden Content , Viana do Castelo, Portugal - Stonemason, miller.
    mtDNA H20 - Monica Vieira, b. circa 1700 Hidden Content , Porto, Portugal

    Hidden Content
    Global25 PCA West Eurasia dataset Hidden Content

    [1] "distance%=1.5077"

    Ruderico

    Iberia_IA,41.2
    Gaul_Velaux_IA,39.8
    Berber_EMA,11.6
    Roman_Colonial,7.4

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  9. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ruderico View Post
    It's a paper that was publish not too long ago Patterns of genetic differentiation and the footprints of historical migrations in the Iberian Peninsula
    Personally I give more relevance to these studies than any nMonte models, since studies were done by academics

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08272-w


    That image was actually from the preprint, the final version updated the values.
    The Western area of Cantabrian seems to be an effect of the software map, because it is based on the dots, and the Western part of Cantabria doesn't have any dots, so it connects directly with Western Spain which are in orange, that's why it starts to fade rigth in the middle. But the samples of Cantabria (all the dots) are in the 3-5% range , and considering it's based on modern North Moroccans (which have recent and appreciable levels of European admixture) it should be around 2-3% of pure north-african which makes sense and is consistent with nMonte.

  10. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweuro View Post
    The Western area of Cantabrian seems to be an effect of the software map, because it is based on the dots, and the Western part of Cantabria doesn't have any dots, so it connects directly with Western Spain which are in orange, that's why it starts to fade rigth in the middle. But the samples of Cantabria (all the dots) are in the 3-5% range , and considering it's based on modern North Moroccans (which have recent and appreciable levels of European admixture) it should be around 2-3% of pure north-african which makes sense and is consistent with nMonte.
    Yep, which is why I said some of the values on the model I built are at the high-end (besides nMonte doesn't always return the smae values with penalty on, so there's that too). However we do not know exactly what the genetic profile of these early settlers was like because we do not have proper samples, only those 50/50-ish from Andalucia in the Roman period, but we have no idea if they arrived during the Roman occupation/colonisation or a bit before (Carthaginians). I'm tempted to say the former, but alas no samples.

    The reason I didn't choose I4246 was because they said on the paper that such early contacts were sporadic, so individuals like him were probably too early to represent NA in Iberia, whereas the Guanche is from the 700s or 800s, and has no direct European ancestry. Whatever European ancestry he has was already present in north Africa at the time, it just back migrated to Iberia.



    Anyway, it doesn't seem like a different source will fundamentally change the results. A couple % more or less doesn't bother me too much, especially if the variation across the peninsula doesn't turn odd. Also keep in mind that there are just 3 or 4 samples in each reference, so they might not be exactly representative. Imagine I was one of the individuals used for a Portuguese reference with just 2 others...oof...
    Last edited by Ruderico; 03-21-2019 at 12:54 AM.
    YDNA E-Y31991>PF4428>Y134097>Y134104>Y168273>FT17866 (TMRCA ~1000AD) - Domingos Rodrigues, b. circa 1690 Hidden Content , Viana do Castelo, Portugal - Stonemason, miller.
    mtDNA H20 - Monica Vieira, b. circa 1700 Hidden Content , Porto, Portugal

    Hidden Content
    Global25 PCA West Eurasia dataset Hidden Content

    [1] "distance%=1.5077"

    Ruderico

    Iberia_IA,41.2
    Gaul_Velaux_IA,39.8
    Berber_EMA,11.6
    Roman_Colonial,7.4

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  12. #27
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    Hola otra vez!

    This time I'll be posting a quick model aimed at getting a look at Germanic ancestry inside Portugal and Spain using the samples from the latest Olalde paper.
    I always found it very hard to estimate because values can flutuate a bit depending on the references on individuals being modelled. This time I'll be only using averaged references, to try keeping results more stable. However, since the Visigothic average reference includes a local (I12034) I decided to recalculate it without the outlier who could have ended up skewing results.

    For reference I'll be posting David's Celtic vs Germanic PCA. Unfortunetly there's no discrimination of Spanish regions, which is a damned shame because it'd help quite a lot.







    Code:
    [1] "distance%=1.0896"
    
             Portuguese
    
    Celtiberian,62.6
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,16.8
    Guanche,10.8
    Visigothic,9.8
    
    
    [1] "distance%=0.9111"
    
             Spanish_Extremadura
    
    Celtiberian,61.6
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,14.8
    Visigothic,12.4
    Guanche,11.2
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.5939"
    
             Spanish_Galicia
    
    Celtiberian,55
    Visigothic,19.6
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,15.8
    Guanche,9.6
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.3755"
    
             Spanish_Cantabria
    
    Celtiberian,83.4
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,9.8
    Guanche,4.2
    Visigothic,2.6
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.0229"
    
             Spanish_Castilla_Y_Leon
    
    Celtiberian,72.8
    Guanche,10.8
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,10
    Visigothic,6.4
    
    
    [1] "distance%=0.85"
    
             Spanish_Castilla_La_Mancha
    
    Celtiberian,77.4
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,13.2
    Guanche,5
    Visigothic,4.4
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.0692"
    
             Spanish_Andalucia
    
    Celtiberian,71.8
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,17.8
    Guanche,6.4
    Visigothic,4
    
    
    [1] "distance%=0.9998"
    
             Spanish_Murcia
    
    Celtiberian,63.4
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,17
    Visigothic,12.2
    Guanche,7.4
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.5173"
    
             Spanish_Valencia
    
    Celtiberian,82.4
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,11.6
    Guanche,6
    Visigothic,0
    
    
    [1] "distance%=0.9881"
    
             Spanish_Cataluna
    
    Celtiberian,69.6
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,13
    Visigothic,12
    Guanche,5.4
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.1178"
    
             Spanish_Aragon
    
    Celtiberian,79
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,12.2
    Guanche,5.6
    Visigothic,3.2
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.2195"
    
             Spanish_Baleares
    
    Celtiberian,63.6
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,23
    Visigothic,11.4
    Guanche,2




    The following group includes Portuguese individuals besides those already included in the G25 dataset.
    If you are Spanish it'd be really great if you could get your own coordinates so we could check your personal variation.

    Code:
    [1] "distance%=1.9348"
    
             Ruderico
    
    Celtiberian,80
    Guanche,10.6
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,9.4
    Visigothic,0
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.8344"
    
             MrsRuderico 
    
    Celtiberian,71.4
    Guanche,13.8
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,11
    Visigothic,3.8
    
    
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.699"
    
             rxavierflima
    
    Celtiberian,68.6
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,12.6
    Guanche,12.4
    Visigothic,6.4
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.3321"
    
             joaoflima
    
    Celtiberian,65.4
    Guanche,13.8
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,13.8
    Visigothic,7
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.1761"
    
             modeteftlima
    
    Celtiberian,53
    Visigothic,17.8
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,17
    Guanche,12.2
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.5474"
    
             matiasnlima
    
    Celtiberian,67.2
    Guanche,14.8
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,10.2
    Visigothic,7.8
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.0866"
    
             elisabetenjoaquim
    
    Celtiberian,57.6
    Visigothic,18.4
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,12.8
    Guanche,11.2
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.1185"
    
             armandoejoaquim
    
    Celtiberian,54.2
    Visigothic,24.8
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,13
    Guanche,8
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.5607"
    
             ermelindarcnunes
    
    Celtiberian,46.8
    Visigothic,30.2
    Guanche,11.6
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,11.4
    
    
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.623"
    
             Lusitano
    
    Celtiberian,72.8
    Guanche,13.8
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,13.2
    Visigothic,0.2



    Some individuals seem to have ridiculously high Visigothic scores so I'm very skeptical of some results - particularly as Olalde didn't mention a significant Germanic impact in modern Iberia - even if the trends themselves might indeed indicate some sort of increased Germanic ancestry. Maybe they are a consequence of Reconquista repopulations from north European crusaders?

    I also decided to include a new Germanic reference instead of these Visigoths for West Iberians, mostly because Germanic settlers there could have been less admixed than the Visigoths, since the Suebi weren't known for wondering about in SE Europe. For that I used the Szolad references, but removed all those who did not plot with modern Germanic-speaking individuals, and finally calculated a new average. The results were very similar. Portugal and León got better fits, for Galicia and myself the improvement was statistically irrelevant. Overall the change of references did pretty much nothing. I guess I'll discard the model

    Code:
    [1] "distance%=1.0296"
    
             Portuguese
    
    Celtiberian,59.6
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,16.4
    Suebi_proxy,12.4
    Guanche,11.6
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.5801"
    
             Spanish_Galicia
    
    Celtiberian,54.2
    Suebi_proxy,18
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,17.6
    Guanche,10.2
    
    
    [1] "distance%=0.9821"
    
             Spanish_Castilla_Y_Leon
    
    Celtiberian,69.8
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,12.6
    Guanche,10.8
    Suebi_proxy,6.8
    
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.9288"
    
             Ruderico
    
    Celtiberian,78.8
    Guanche,11.4
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,9.8
    Suebi_proxy,0




    Now I'll go play Age of Empires Online as Celts against Norse and Greeks, because my results dictate so
    Last edited by Ruderico; 03-28-2019 at 06:18 PM.
    YDNA E-Y31991>PF4428>Y134097>Y134104>Y168273>FT17866 (TMRCA ~1000AD) - Domingos Rodrigues, b. circa 1690 Hidden Content , Viana do Castelo, Portugal - Stonemason, miller.
    mtDNA H20 - Monica Vieira, b. circa 1700 Hidden Content , Porto, Portugal

    Hidden Content
    Global25 PCA West Eurasia dataset Hidden Content

    [1] "distance%=1.5077"

    Ruderico

    Iberia_IA,41.2
    Gaul_Velaux_IA,39.8
    Berber_EMA,11.6
    Roman_Colonial,7.4

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  14. #28

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  16. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by rxavierflima View Post

    Eh pá, posta aí os 7 resultados, s'il te plaît!
    Acho mais interessante com suevos do que com visigodos porque, como dizes, os visigodos eram uma grande mistela quando cá chegaram.
    Bem tecnicamente são Lombardos, não Suevos, apenas os estou a usar como proxy, mas eles provavelmente esses grupos eram bastante semelhantes. O resultado seja com Visigodos ou estes é em termos práticos igual, apesar de algumas componentes ficarem anormalmente elevadas, por exemplo o Guanche está claramente acima do real que deverá ser algures entre 9-11% para a maior parte de nós. Sinceramente até prefiro o modelo com os Godos.

    O teu sogro é que tem resultados algo diferentes, muito Germanico e pouco do norte de África.


    Code:
    [1] "distance%=1.6728"
    
             rxavierflima
    
    Celtiberian,66.2
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,15.6
    Guanche,13
    Suebi_proxy,5.2
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.5072"
    
             matiasnlima
    
    Celtiberian,64
    Guanche,15.6
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,10.2
    Suebi_proxy,10.2
    
    
    [1] "distance%=0.9918"
    
             elisabetenjoaquim
    
    Celtiberian,55
    Suebi_proxy,19
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,14.4
    Guanche,11.6
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.0263"
    
             armandoejoaquim
    
    Celtiberian,51
    Suebi_proxy,24.6
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,15.6
    Guanche,8.8
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.3137"
    
             joaoflima
    
    Celtiberian,63.8
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,15.2
    Guanche,14.4
    Suebi_proxy,6.6
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.1573"
    
             modeteftlima
    
    Celtiberian,52
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,19.6
    Suebi_proxy,15.6
    Guanche,12.8
    
    
    [1] "distance%=1.4562"
    
             ermelindarcnunes
    
    Celtiberian,44.4
    Suebi_proxy,28
    Roman_Imperial_proxy,15.4
    Guanche,12.2
    YDNA E-Y31991>PF4428>Y134097>Y134104>Y168273>FT17866 (TMRCA ~1000AD) - Domingos Rodrigues, b. circa 1690 Hidden Content , Viana do Castelo, Portugal - Stonemason, miller.
    mtDNA H20 - Monica Vieira, b. circa 1700 Hidden Content , Porto, Portugal

    Hidden Content
    Global25 PCA West Eurasia dataset Hidden Content

    [1] "distance%=1.5077"

    Ruderico

    Iberia_IA,41.2
    Gaul_Velaux_IA,39.8
    Berber_EMA,11.6
    Roman_Colonial,7.4

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  18. #30
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    Portugal
    Quote Originally Posted by Ruderico View Post
    Bem tecnicamente são Lombardos, não Suevos, apenas os estou a usar como proxy, mas eles provavelmente esses grupos eram bastante semelhantes. O resultado seja com Visigodos ou estes é em termos práticos igual, apesar de algumas componentes ficarem anormalmente elevadas, por exemplo o Guanche está claramente acima do real que deverá ser algures entre 9-11% para a maior parte de nós. Sinceramente até prefiro o modelo com os Godos.

    O teu sogro é que tem resultados algo diferentes, muito Germanico e pouco do norte de África.
    Hum, de que altura são esses lombardos? Se são do século VI quando entraram na Itália, ok. Mas se são já muito posteriores, não me parece que se possam considerar semelhantes a suevos. Os suevos que chegaram a Portugal eram germânicos "puros" porque a viagem durou 2 ou 3 anos.

    A mim cheira-me (repara na cientificidade disto lol) que o meu pai apesar de ter muito NA, é também o que tem mais sangue suevo. Não só porque é de ascendência minhota mas também porque segundo ele havia pessoas da família ruivos. Isto pode não querer dizer nada, mas é a minha aposta. E talvez isto explique um pouco este absurdo.

    Acho também que os pais da minha mulher, sendo do centro do país, terão mais influência do lado visigodo.

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