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Thread: Dutch Longobard? About Scandic and/or Baltic-Slavic influences.....

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huijbregts View Post
    As to the model of my sample, the broad line of 77% NW_European is of course correct.
    In my own models I never find Protoboleraz_LCA.
    I have some Eastern admixture, which might be Hungarian. 5% seems a bit low.
    Did you admit the standard penalizing of nMonte3?
    This was with pen=0.

    With pen=0,001 you get:

    [1] "distance%=1.8126"


    Huijbregts


    Beaker_Czech,74.6
    Beaker_Britain,12
    Beaker_Poland,3
    Beaker_Bavaria,2.4
    Beaker_The_Netherlands,1.2
    Balkans_BA,1
    Beaker_Mittelelbe-Saale,1
    CWC_Germany,1
    Anatolia_MLBA_low_res,0.4
    Beaker_France_South,0.4
    Beaker_Hungary,0.4
    Globular_Amphora_Ukraine,0.4
    Minoan_Lasithi,0.4
    Anatolia_BA,0.2
    Anatolia_MLBA,0.2
    Armenia_EBA,0.2
    Battle_Axe_Sweden,0.2
    Beaker_France,0.2
    Beaker_Italy_North,0.2
    England_N,0.2
    Poltavka,0.2
    Scotland_N,0.2

    Samples for this (overfitted) model are taken from that plot: https://www.dropbox.com/s/jbet3716b9...kers2.png?dl=0
    Last edited by ph2ter; 02-10-2019 at 05:06 PM.
     
    Paper Trail MyHeritage K36 G25 Mod. FTDNA
    NW Croatian 87.5%
    Slovenian 6.25%
    Unknown 6.25%
    E. Europe 35.7%
    Balkan 34.4%
    Scandinavia 21.2%
    Baltic 8.7%
    Grenzmark 0.94
    Czechs 0.93,
    Hungary 0.91
    Volhyn 0.91,
    C. Rusyns 0.91
    Slovenia 0.91
    Czech 1.79
    Hungarian 2.02
    Slovenian 2.07
    Croatian 2.39
    Ukrainian 3.01
    East Europe 99%
    Trace 1%

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  3. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Finn View Post
    Thanks, fascinating!

    ....mmmm now the connection.....

    Direct from the Baltic/East Europe? Or transmitted through more 'Northeast' Germanic tribes?

    How can we trace this?
    I really don't know how we can trace this.

    In a model with all modern populations and pen=0 you get:
    [1] "distance%=0.8969"


    Finn


    German,24.6
    Scottish,23.8
    Dutch,22.4
    Icelandic,7.2
    Irish,7.2
    Lithuanian,6
    Norwegian,5.4
    Latvian,2.2
    Swedish,1.2


    Maybe Old Prussian population is something close to your eventual Baltic link. Germans and Dutch settlers colonized the lands of the native Prussians and maybe somebody returned to NL.
    I just make wild guesses.
     
    Paper Trail MyHeritage K36 G25 Mod. FTDNA
    NW Croatian 87.5%
    Slovenian 6.25%
    Unknown 6.25%
    E. Europe 35.7%
    Balkan 34.4%
    Scandinavia 21.2%
    Baltic 8.7%
    Grenzmark 0.94
    Czechs 0.93,
    Hungary 0.91
    Volhyn 0.91,
    C. Rusyns 0.91
    Slovenia 0.91
    Czech 1.79
    Hungarian 2.02
    Slovenian 2.07
    Croatian 2.39
    Ukrainian 3.01
    East Europe 99%
    Trace 1%

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  5. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by ph2ter View Post
    I really don't know how we can trace this.

    In a model with all modern populations and pen=0 you get:
    [1] "distance%=0.8969"


    Finn


    German,24.6
    Scottish,23.8
    Dutch,22.4
    Icelandic,7.2
    Irish,7.2
    Lithuanian,6
    Norwegian,5.4
    Latvian,2.2
    Swedish,1.2


    Maybe Old Prussian population is something close to your eventual Baltic link. Germans and Dutch settlers colonized the lands of the native Prussians and maybe somebody returned to NL.
    I just make wild guesses.


    Thanks indeed the NE influence in unmistakable!

    Logically seen is 'somebody' because it's certainly not something of the previous five generations. Before that the influence of the individual ancestor is tiny. But many tiny's make an amount. In other words this is something of the North Dutch gene pool (it occurs in my mothers line especially but is also visual in my fathers line).

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  7. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by ph2ter View Post
    This was with pen=0.

    With pen=0,001 you get:

    [1] "distance%=1.8126"


    Huijbregts


    Beaker_Czech,74.6
    Beaker_Britain,12
    Beaker_Poland,3
    Beaker_Bavaria,2.4
    Beaker_The_Netherlands,1.2
    Balkans_BA,1
    Beaker_Mittelelbe-Saale,1
    CWC_Germany,1
    Anatolia_MLBA_low_res,0.4
    Beaker_France_South,0.4
    Beaker_Hungary,0.4
    Globular_Amphora_Ukraine,0.4
    Minoan_Lasithi,0.4
    Anatolia_BA,0.2
    Anatolia_MLBA,0.2
    Armenia_EBA,0.2
    Battle_Axe_Sweden,0.2
    Beaker_France,0.2
    Beaker_Italy_North,0.2
    England_N,0.2
    Poltavka,0.2
    Scotland_N,0.2

    Samples for this (overfitted) model are taken from that plot: https://www.dropbox.com/s/jbet3716b9...kers2.png?dl=0
    This model is not overfitted.
    It is true that the penalization always generates a lot of very small noise admixtures; these should be ignored.
    The effect of penalization is that weird admixtures in the top the list are weeded out. I asked about penalization because in your previous model I saw the rare Protoboleraz, which has indeed disappeared.
    Also the relevant admixtures are considerably concentrated, in this case to 4 or maybe even 2.
    Penalizing is the default mode, you should't switch if off unless you have formulated a very statistical reason in advance.

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  9. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huijbregts View Post
    This model is not overfitted.
    It is true that the penalization always generates a lot of very small noise admixtures; these should be ignored.
    The effect of penalization is that weird admixtures in the top the list are weeded out. I asked about penalization because in your previous model I saw the rare Protoboleraz, which has indeed disappeared.
    Also the relevant admixtures are considerably concentrated, in this case to 4 or maybe even 2.
    Penalizing is the default mode, you should't switch if off unless you have formulated a very statistical reason in advance.
    Thanks.


    My model with pen=0.001


    [1] "distance%=2.6547"


    ph2ter_scaled


    Beaker_Czech,55.8
    Beaker_Bavaria,11.6
    Balkans_BA,8.4
    Beaker_Hungary,6
    Hungary_BA,4.6
    Beaker_Britain,2.6
    Ukraine_Eneolithic,2
    Alberstedt_LN,1.8
    CWC_Baltic,1.2
    Afanasievo,1
    Baden_LCA,0.8
    CWC_Baltic_early,0.8
    Poltavka,0.6
    Beaker_France_South,0.4
    Beaker_The_Netherlands,0.4
    Scotland_CA_EBA,0.4
    Anatolia_BA,0.2
    Anatolia_MLBA,0.2
    Armenia_EBA,0.2
    Beaker_Italy_North,0.2
    Beaker_Poland,0.2
    CWC_Germany,0.2
    Vucedol,0.2
    Yamnaya_Ukraine_o,0.2




    and with pen=0
    [1] "distance%=1.6833"


    ph2ter_scaled


    Protoboleraz_LCA,26.6
    CWC_Baltic,20.4
    Beaker_Czech,17.2
    Poltavka,14.6
    CWC_Baltic_early,8.8
    Hungary_BA,5.8
    Afanasievo,3.8
    Anatolia_MLBA_low_res,2.8




    Protoboleraz_LCA + CWC_Baltic without pen turn into Beakers when run with pen.
    And Beakers probably are a combination of European Farmers and CWC.
    And I am not sure that I have so much Beakers ancestry, so the result with pen=0 looks more realistic.
    Or maybe not?
     
    Paper Trail MyHeritage K36 G25 Mod. FTDNA
    NW Croatian 87.5%
    Slovenian 6.25%
    Unknown 6.25%
    E. Europe 35.7%
    Balkan 34.4%
    Scandinavia 21.2%
    Baltic 8.7%
    Grenzmark 0.94
    Czechs 0.93,
    Hungary 0.91
    Volhyn 0.91,
    C. Rusyns 0.91
    Slovenia 0.91
    Czech 1.79
    Hungarian 2.02
    Slovenian 2.07
    Croatian 2.39
    Ukrainian 3.01
    East Europe 99%
    Trace 1%

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  11. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by ph2ter View Post
    Thanks.


    My model with pen=0.001


    [1] "distance%=2.6547"


    ph2ter_scaled


    Beaker_Czech,55.8
    Beaker_Bavaria,11.6
    Balkans_BA,8.4
    Beaker_Hungary,6
    Hungary_BA,4.6
    Beaker_Britain,2.6
    Ukraine_Eneolithic,2
    Alberstedt_LN,1.8
    CWC_Baltic,1.2
    Afanasievo,1
    Baden_LCA,0.8
    CWC_Baltic_early,0.8
    Poltavka,0.6
    Beaker_France_South,0.4
    Beaker_The_Netherlands,0.4
    Scotland_CA_EBA,0.4
    Anatolia_BA,0.2
    Anatolia_MLBA,0.2
    Armenia_EBA,0.2
    Beaker_Italy_North,0.2
    Beaker_Poland,0.2
    CWC_Germany,0.2
    Vucedol,0.2
    Yamnaya_Ukraine_o,0.2




    and with pen=0
    [1] "distance%=1.6833"


    ph2ter_scaled


    Protoboleraz_LCA,26.6
    CWC_Baltic,20.4
    Beaker_Czech,17.2
    Poltavka,14.6
    CWC_Baltic_early,8.8
    Hungary_BA,5.8
    Afanasievo,3.8
    Anatolia_MLBA_low_res,2.8




    Protoboleraz_LCA + CWC_Baltic without pen turn into Beakers when run with pen.
    And Beakers probably are a combination of European Farmers and CWC.
    And I am not sure that I have so much Beakers ancestry, so the result with pen=0 looks more realistic.

    Or maybe not?
    The worst thing you can do is running both methods and choose the results that match your pet theory. In science that is considered fraud.
    The best thing you can do is choosing the model that is methodologically the best one, and stick to it, even if you are disappointed by the results. The preferred method is to penalize.

    That said, I don't share your disappointment in the penalized results. Balkan BA samples often resemble W_European ones; indeed when I modelled myself against modern samples I often got a considerable % Croatian.
    Actually I am more surprised by your unpenalized results. I do not consider Protoboleraz_LCA and CWC_Baltic very similar to Croatian.
    But I repeat, the methodological arguments should prevail.

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  13. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huijbregts View Post
    The worst thing you can do is running both methods and choose the results that match your pet theory. In science that is considered fraud.
    The best thing you can do is choosing the model that is methodologically the best one, and stick to it, even if you are disappointed by the results. The preferred method is to penalize.

    That said, I don't share your disappointment in the penalized results. Balkan BA samples often resemble W_European ones; indeed when I modelled myself against modern samples I often got a considerable % Croatian.
    Actually I am more surprised by your unpenalized results. I do not consider Protoboleraz_LCA and CWC_Baltic very similar to Croatian.
    But I repeat, the methodological arguments should prevail.
    I am actually pleased with my penalized result more than unpenalized.
    I will stick from now on to penalized results no matter how unpenalized seem to me.
    Last edited by ph2ter; 02-11-2019 at 07:41 AM.
     
    Paper Trail MyHeritage K36 G25 Mod. FTDNA
    NW Croatian 87.5%
    Slovenian 6.25%
    Unknown 6.25%
    E. Europe 35.7%
    Balkan 34.4%
    Scandinavia 21.2%
    Baltic 8.7%
    Grenzmark 0.94
    Czechs 0.93,
    Hungary 0.91
    Volhyn 0.91,
    C. Rusyns 0.91
    Slovenia 0.91
    Czech 1.79
    Hungarian 2.02
    Slovenian 2.07
    Croatian 2.39
    Ukrainian 3.01
    East Europe 99%
    Trace 1%

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  15. #38
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    If you want to know about Slavs, then watch Polish movie: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Anc..._Sun_Was_a_God
    When the Sun was a God.
    The movie features Russian actress and Ukrainian actors.

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  17. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by ph2ter View Post
    Here it is:

    [1] "distance%=1.6646"


    Radboud


    Beaker_Britain,36.8
    Beaker_The_Netherlands,15.2
    Beaker_Mittelelbe-Saale,10.6
    Baden_LCA,10.4
    Petrovka_MLBA,9
    Beaker_Bavaria,7.8
    Beaker_Poland,4.2
    Beaker_Czech,2.6
    Iberia_Central_CA,1.8
    Afanasievo,1.6
    Thanks, can you also do the pen=0,001 version for me if you have some spare time?

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  19. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Volat View Post
    If you want to know about Slavs, then watch Polish movie: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Anc..._Sun_Was_a_God
    When the Sun was a God.
    The movie features Russian actress and Ukrainian actors.
    Volat, this short movie shows how the Slavs spread: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqGBRGTIpGk
     
    Paper Trail MyHeritage K36 G25 Mod. FTDNA
    NW Croatian 87.5%
    Slovenian 6.25%
    Unknown 6.25%
    E. Europe 35.7%
    Balkan 34.4%
    Scandinavia 21.2%
    Baltic 8.7%
    Grenzmark 0.94
    Czechs 0.93,
    Hungary 0.91
    Volhyn 0.91,
    C. Rusyns 0.91
    Slovenia 0.91
    Czech 1.79
    Hungarian 2.02
    Slovenian 2.07
    Croatian 2.39
    Ukrainian 3.01
    East Europe 99%
    Trace 1%

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