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Thread: Saka, Scythians, Sarmatians & Huns: Overview (G25 Data)

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    Lightbulb Saka, Scythians, Sarmatians & Huns: Overview (G25 Data)

    Briefly, this thread will review the differing admixture proportions between the various Eurasian pastoral nomad samples we currently have from the Iron Age and Classical periods based on Eurogenes G25 data and poi's excellent nMonte runner (remember to donate to its' upkeep!). This can be considered an extension of Kulin's assessment here.


    Method
    The ref pop choices are self-explanatory (note that Afanasievo is interchangeable with Yamnaya Samara here). I usually refrain from using more than six ref pops in G25 nMonte simulations, but the breadth of the territory covered does necessitate a somewhat large number. All of these populations are distinct from one another. I've elected to use only one non-ancient as a ref pop (my qpAdm-guided AASI simulation from Pakistan-Afghanistan) for obvious reasons (we don't have any predominantly AASI aDNA just yet).

    The original iteration of this run had a ref pop source for CHG. However, most of the target samples didn't require it (<1%) and only two or three registered anything above 1% (<2%). Ergo, there doesn't appear to have been any significant gene flow from the Caucasus into the Eurasian steppes during the Iron Age to Classical period based on our current samples.

    A second iteration using just the Hovsgol Mongolian BA samples as an East Eurasian source was attempted. While the fits worked very well for everyone else, certain Hun and "Nomad_IA" samples produced substandard fits (>5) and scored 100% Hovsgol BA. Inspecting the check fit demonstrated that those samples seemed to pair fairly well with modern Tungusic-speaking groups. I performed a quick test to discern which of these populations was the least West Eurasian (below in spoilers; cycle=1k, batch=500, pen=def). This suggests an additional East Eurasian source that's present in modern Tungusic speakers played a role in the ethnogenesis of these groups. They aren't a simple expansion of Hovsgol BA westwards. I elected to use the Oroqen (0% W. Eurasian, lowest fit) as a result.

     

    Code:
    	Sample	Details	Fit	Map	Eskimo Naukan	Han	RUS Sintashta MLBA	TKM Parkhai EBA	USA Ancient Beringian
    1	Evenk:Average		21.77 	Open Map	68.4	31.6	0	0	0
    2	Mogush:Average		12.2149 	Open Map	37.8	46.8	14.8	0.6	0
    3	Oroqen:Average		11.1891 	Open Map	29.6	70.4	0	0	0
    4	Tuvinian:Average		13.0665 	Open Map	38.8	47.6	13.4	0.2	0
    5	Ulchi:Average		12.5751 	Open Map	38.6	61.4	0	0	0


    Results
    Please see below.

    Code:
    Sample				Fit	Botai	Hovsgol BA	Oroqen	Globular Amphora PL	Afanasievo	Sintashta	Sim AASI NW By DMXX	Parkhai EN
    Hun_Tian_Shan:Average		2.0889	5.2	27.8		4.6	2.2			16		36.8		2.6			4.8
    Hun_Tian_Shan_o:Average		2.9309	0	67.4		25.6	0.2			0.6		5.6		0.2			0.4
    KAZ_Hun-Sarmatian:Average	2.5186 	0	52.4		46.8	0			0.2		0.6		0			0
    KAZ_Nomad_HP:Average		3.6153 	0	57.2		41.2	0.4			0.2		1		0			0
    KAZ_Nomad_IA:Average		2.8719 	12	16.8		2.6	2.4			25		33.8		2.2			5.2
    KAZ_Nomad_Med:Average		2.8806 	0	60.6		10.6	1.4			8.6		16.4		1			1.4
    KGZ_Nomad_Med:Average		3.725 	0	60.6		34	0.4			1		3.4		0			0.6
    RUS_Nomad_Med:Average		2.4454 	0	37.8		6.8	3			0.8		47.8		0.6			3.2
    Saka_Kazakh_steppe:Average	1.6451 	1.2	49.8		3.6	2.4			15.4		24.6		0.4			2.6
    Saka_Kazakh_steppe_o1:Average	3.2748 	0.8	8.2		1.6	0			18.6		57.2		2.6			11
    Saka_Kazakh_steppe_o2:Average	3.3434 	0.2	9		1.8	0			17.4		65.6		0.8			5.2
    Saka_Tian_Shan:Average		3.0204 	3	16		4	1			29.8		37.6		2.2			6.4
    Saka_Tian_Shan_o:Average	2.6643 	10.8	26.6		5	3			3.6		44.8		1.8			4.4
    Sarmatian_KAZ:Average		2.0229 	0	8.4		1.4	3			38		43		0.2			6
    Sarmatian_RUS_Casp_ste:Average	1.5573 	2	9		2	2			29		48.6		0.4			7
    Sarmatian_RUS_Pokrovka:Average	1.5593 	0.6	7.8		1.8	0			31.2		52.6		0.6			5.4
    Sarmatian_RUS_Urals:Average	1.6352 	1.6	7.4		2.8	2.2			26		53.8		0.6			5.6
    Scythian_Aldy_Bel_IA:Average	1.9364 	4	51.6		3	1.8			14.4		23		0.4			1.8
    Scythian_HUN:Average		2.8199 	0	0		0	42.4			0		57.4		0			0.2
    Scythian_MDA:Average		4.9562 	0	1		0.2	45.2			0		45.8		0.4			7.4
    Scythian_MDA_o2:Average		2.8724 	0	0		0	18.8			0		81.2		0			0
    Scythian_UKR:Average		3.0679 	0	0.4		0.6	16.6			0		80.8		0			1.6
    Scythian_Zevak_Ch_IA:Average	2.954 	0	44.6		4.6	3.4			12.4		30.6		0.8			3.6
    Analysis
    • Botai persists sporadically around the Tian Shan, but the highest value is seen in a Kazakh nomad.
    • Hovsgol BA is present in most of the samples. The frequency varies wildly. There isn't an obvious relationship between the Hun vs. Saka assignment and the observed frequency. Those Scythians from the European steppe (Hungary, Ukraine, Moldova) lack this form of ancestry.
    • Oroqen-like ancestry largely mirrors the pattern seen from the Hovsgol BA component.
    • Trace surplus EEF (Global Amphora) is located east of the Urals (0-3%). It forms the majority of the non-steppe ancestry in the European Scythians. The "Moldovan_outlier2" sample is so because it contains less GA and more MLBA steppe relative to the others. However, it's identical to the Ukrainian Scythian.
    • Afanasievo ancestry is truly "Afanasievo" in those samples from East-Central Asia. Here, we see it reach a maximum of 29% in the Saka Tian Shan average. A moderate presence exists in the Kazakh steppe (Saka, Hun). The non-Hun Sarmatians register plenty, but this is probably persistent ancestry from the EMBA period. The European Scythians score none.
    • Sintashta is, unsurprisingly, the primary component across most of the Scythian and Saka individuals. It reaches a maximum in the European Scythians (though it's not possible to determine from this run whether that's strictly true).
    • My AASI simulation is picked up in a handful of the East-Central Asian samples (approaching 3% in some). It seems to correlate with Iranian-Turanian agriculturalist admixture, and we know AASI was present in South-Central Asia around the Bronze Age onwards. As expected, absent everywhere west of the Kazakh steppe.
    • Parkhai_EN is present in a handful of East-Central Asian samples. Curiously, it's picked up in two of the European Scythians (the Moldovan reaches up to 8%).


    All thoughts welcome.
    Last edited by DMXX; 05-04-2019 at 11:54 AM. Reason: correction to sentence in method RE: CHG

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