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Thread: N1c in the Balts

  1. #651
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    I don't want to drag the "Baltic R1a" thread off topic, so I'll post this here.

    Quote Originally Posted by parastais View Post
    But as to which island Finnic, answer is I don’t know, Saaremaa to Curonian coast to West Lithuania? But I have not found any good literature on it. Only assumed because I think it was the best candidate culture for L-1025 founder effect in Balts, plus this culture had L1025 3rd century AD.
    One of the comments on that blog I posted reminded me of something. Apparently in the supplementary, OLS10 and VII4 both tested positive for marker Y4706 (downstream from L1025). IIg was positive for Y4707 (but no reading for Y4706 upstream of it). All of these samples are from Lääne-Viru County. According to the ancient DNA database at Indo-European.eu, Kolgeh assigned VII4 to N-Y4706 as well. However, these results were not substantiated by Myllylä, and the sole sample in YFull (Medieval, from Saaremaa) is N-L550.

    I'm personally doubtful any of the EST_IA samples are N-L1025+, although it would be nice to have some confirmation. If I'm right, I don't see how N-L1025 could have arrived to Latvia/Lithuania from Estonia (including Saaremaa).

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  3. #652
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zelto View Post
    I don't want to drag the "Baltic R1a" thread off topic, so I'll post this here.



    One of the comments on that blog I posted reminded me of something. Apparently in the supplementary, OLS10 and VII4 both tested positive for marker Y4706 (downstream from L1025). IIg was positive for Y4707 (but no reading for Y4706 upstream of it). All of these samples are from Lääne-Viru County. According to the ancient DNA database at Indo-European.eu, Kolgeh assigned VII4 to N-Y4706 as well. However, these results were not substantiated by Myllylä, and the sole sample in YFull (Medieval, from Saaremaa) is N-L550.

    I'm personally doubtful any of the EST_IA samples are N-L1025+, although it would be nice to have some confirmation. If I'm right, I don't see how N-L1025 could have arrived to Latvia/Lithuania from Estonia (including Saaremaa).
    Before its expansion within Balts it was likely a very small clan (L1025) within larger L550 family. So, any place having L550 nearby is as good as any.

    But perhaps we should look for some technological innovation allowing that Stone Circles culture to explore previously not very suitable lands. Perhaps fact that bog iron smelting somehow started contemporary to this culture (first centuries AD) might point to something.

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  5. #653
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    I reached out to altvred and he was kind enough to resolve the positions of OLS10, VII4 and IIg.

    Quote Originally Posted by altvred
    Anyway,

    VII14_1 is certainly N-Y4706

    https://pastebin.com/1A5nah1D

    He's also negative for most of the downstream subclade defining SNPs with the exception of Y4707 and Y183040, where he doesn't have any coverage.

     



    0LS10 is ancestral for CTS27, so that would make him N-CTS6967* along with kra001.. weird.
    https://pastebin.com/vbfqJsvY

     


    https://pastebin.com/TpqFcqUB

    llg I would tentatively place at L550, it's a single read C -> T transition and overall the coverage is very spotty.

    He's derived for Y4707, but it's a single read and a C -> T transition, no coverage between it and L550 - so this is more likely a false call as a result of dna damage.
    So at least one N-L1025 subclade was present in the earliest Estonian Tarands (760–400 BC). Note that N-Y4706 is not usually associated with modern Balts, it has a fairly broad distribution across Northern Europe. https://www.yfull.com/tree/N-Y4706/

    I suppose N-L1025 must have already split in Estonia then. How it reached its current frequency/distribution remains just as mysterious to me though. The Stone Circles culture is a potential explanation, but then how did it arrive there?
    Last edited by Zelto; 06-12-2021 at 06:42 PM.

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  7. #654
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zelto View Post
    I reached out to altvred and he was kind enough to resolve the positions of OLS10, VII4 and IIg.



    So at least one N-L1025 subclade was present in the earliest Estonian Tarands (760–400 BC). Note that N-Y4706 is not usually associated with modern Balts, it has a fairly broad distribution across Northern Europe. https://www.yfull.com/tree/N-Y4706/

    I suppose N-L1025 must have already split in Estonia then. How it reached its current frequency/distribution remains just as mysterious to me though. The Stone Circles culture is a potential explanation, but then how did it arrive there?
    If L-1025 was already split in Estonia_IA, then it may not be much of a problem. Some maritime fishers or traders got in touch with Northern edge of West Balts. Assimilated into their network - Finnish boats (laiva) or maybe other innovations (if bog iron smelting was known to them) or maybe Baltic Finns Northern maritime connections and West Baltic amber connections and Central Euro learnings likely made a good combo to expand in the region.

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  9. #655
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    Quote Originally Posted by parastais View Post
    This might hint something (Baltic_EST_IA_X04_1 is the most SWE_IA rich Estonian_IA, as we see both Latvians and Lithuanians have it around 10%, whereas only Latvians have average EST_IA). Latvians and Lithuanians also have same level of Baltic N-M2783.

    "sample": "Test1:Latvian",
    "fit": 1.0621,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 44.17,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 30.83,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 15.83,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_X04_1": 9.17,

    "sample": "Test2:Lithuanian",
    "fit": 1.6162,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 50.83,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 38.33,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_X04_1": 10.83,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 0,
    Just some old stuff, pointing at Saaremaa, maritime Baltic Finns as likely source of N in Balts.

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  11. #656
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    I always forget how heterogenous these early-Tarand samples are. Anyways, in the G25 PCAs VII4 is consistently the most "Northwestern" shifted, closest to modern Finns, and more distant to Baltic_BA compared to the others.

    VII4 also has an affinity towards Migration_POH: POH36, not seen in the other early-Tarand samples and looks slightly Germanic. Some of the younger early-Tarands (V12, V11) share this Germanic admixture, however VII4 is apparently as old as the more "eastern" V10 and OLS10 (760–400 BC).

    Quote Originally Posted by parastais View Post
    If L-1025 was already split in Estonia_IA, then it may not be much of a problem. Some maritime fishers or traders got in touch with Northern edge of West Balts. Assimilated into their network - Finnish boats (laiva) or maybe other innovations (if bog iron smelting was known to them) or maybe Baltic Finns Northern maritime connections and West Baltic amber connections and Central Euro learnings likely made a good combo to expand in the region.
    I think its a safe bet to say, N-L550 (including L1025) spread across the north Baltic (NE Courland, SW Finland and Central Sweden), from coastal Estonia with early-Tarands. Any one of these areas may have been the staging ground for secondary expansions, including one into Latvia/Lithuania.

    That medieval sample from Saaremaa in Yfull, as well as the diversity of N-L550 in Sweden (and lack thereof in Estonia), still makes me question the role Estonia played, besides being the initial "springboard" into the Baltic. That doubt is also fueled by a lack of archeological evidence one way or another. Did Baltic-Finns in Estonia have any technological advantage over Balts? It seems to me, like they were technologically on par with each other.

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  13. #657
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    Quote Originally Posted by parastais View Post
    My latest understanding on N-M2783 in Balts.

    1) Tarand Graves brings N to Baltics with guys like "Baltic_EST_IA:0LS10" mixing with local BA populations (LVA_BA, EST_BA) and Germanic folk (proxy SWE_IA) to produce Baltic Finns or Estonian IA type population.
    "sample": "Test1:Baltic_EST_IA",
    "fit": 1.4437,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_0LS10_1": 48.33,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 29.17,
    "SWE_IA": 22.5,
    "Baltic_LTU_BA": 0,

    2) In the coasts and islands of Estonia and Latvia a more "Western" variation of Estonian_IA evolves (i.e. Saaremaa 500 BCE - Baltic_EST_IA_-_X04_1) which is richer in both SWE_IA and LVA_BA:
    "sample": "Test1:Baltic_EST_IA_-_X04_1",
    "fit": 2.256,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 49.17,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 30.83,
    "SWE_IA": 20,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_0LS10_1": 0,
    "Baltic_LTU_BA": 0,

    3) This "Oeselian" guy mixes with some local LVA_BA populations to start new burial tradition in the Baltics. Barrows with stone encirclements (edit - West Lithunian stone circle graves), which is fusion of Central Europe and Tarand (somewhere 1st century AD if I am not wrong). This tradition goes East into sparcely populated inlands North Lithuania, South Latvia, etc, North Lithuanian Barrow Culture 300-500(?) AD (Baltic_LTU_Late_Antiquity_low_res) is one of related cultures:
    "sample": "Test1:Baltic_LTU_Late_Antiquity_low_res",
    "fit": 4.715,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 66.67,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_X04_1": 33.33,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 0,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_0LS10_1": 0,
    "Baltic_LTU_BA": 0,
    "SWE_IA": 0,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 0,

    4) East Balts of East Lithuanian Barrow Culture (influences from Vielbark via Sudovia and NLBC on remains of Brushed Pottery Culture) go West.. and North, bringing tons of HUN_Avar_Szolad type genetics into Baltics and assimilating local cocktail rich in N-M2783:
    "sample": "Test2:Lithuanian",
    "fit": 1.4859,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 54.17,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 30.83,
    "Baltic_LTU_Late_Antiquity_low_res": 15,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 0,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_0LS10_1": 0,

    5) In Latvia they meet Baltic Finns proper and Hun_Avar_Szolad type of genetics washes out a bit:
    "sample": "Test1:Latvian",
    "fit": 0.9797,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 38.33,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 32.5,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 19.17,
    "Baltic_LTU_Late_Antiquity_low_res": 10,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_0LS10_1": 0,

    Please note, Latvians have additional EST_IA from Livonians most likely, but even somewhat less Baltic_LTU_Late_Antiquity_low_res, and also our proportion of N-M2783 is slightly lower than Lithuanian.

    ...
    Does this make any sense? If no, what are the weak points here?
    Wrote this two years ago too. Sad, not much has changed since then either confirming or rejecting this...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zelto View Post
    That medieval sample from Saaremaa in Yfull, as well as the diversity of N-L550 in Sweden (and lack thereof in Estonia), still makes me question the role Estonia played, besides being the initial "springboard" into the Baltic.
    The Baltic N-L1025 might be based on back migration from more southern areas, being first related to Gothic expansion towards south? Maybe first into old East Baltic area, being fex reflected in the similarities between East Baltic Kurgans and Pskov type of Long Barrows?

    " In my opinion, the material analyzed verifies the assumption made earlier than in the Migration Period, in the fifth to seventh centuries, some kind of militarized groups of people from the Germanic surroundings of the central Danube, as well as Slavic and Baltic groups penetrated Eastern Europe's forest belt...the Danubean elements in Prussia's and Lithuania's archaeological material are accented in the works of various researchers more than once."

    https://www.academia.edu/1930524/M_K...2007_p_238_253

    N-L1025 should have had, because of the phylogeny in the Baltic area, some kind of a competitive edge during the early stages of it's expansion. Extensive military know-how based on more southern Migration Era conflicts might have been the silver bullet?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Huck Finn View Post
    The Baltic N-L1025 might be based on back migration from more southern areas, being first related to Gothic expansion towards south? Maybe first into old East Baltic area, being fex reflected in the similarities between East Baltic Kurgans and Pskov type of Long Barrows?

    " In my opinion, the material analyzed verifies the assumption made earlier than in the Migration Period, in the fifth to seventh centuries, some kind of militarized groups of people from the Germanic surroundings of the central Danube, as well as Slavic and Baltic groups penetrated Eastern Europe's forest belt...the Danubean elements in Prussia's and Lithuania's archaeological material are accented in the works of various researchers more than once."

    https://www.academia.edu/1930524/M_K...2007_p_238_253

    N-L1025 should have had, because of the phylogeny in the Baltic area, some kind of a competitive edge during the early stages of it's expansion. Extensive military know-how based on more southern Migration Era conflicts might have been the silver bullet?
    Very interesting material, likely explaining secondary spread of already Baltified N.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Huck Finn View Post
    The Baltic N-L1025 might be based on back migration from more southern areas, being first related to Gothic expansion towards south? Maybe first into old East Baltic area, being fex reflected in the similarities between East Baltic Kurgans and Pskov type of Long Barrows?
    I favor an entry point from Scandinavia, especially if we are assuming the first N-L1025 rich Balts were from Lithuania and not Latvia. Based on Baltic_LTU_Late_Antiquity_low_res: DA171 and the Kivutkalns samples.

    Unfortunately there are still a lot of questions I don't think can be answered yet. Like what happened to all the N-L550 in Estonia? The simplest explanation would be that it was replaced during the transition from early-Tarands to typical-Tarands, or with the transition to cremation burials under level ground. Perhaps with new migrants (rich in N-L1022 subclades) from the East. However, there are three medieval Estonian samples with N, all apparently N-L550*. I guess these are dead branches?

    Also, if early-Tarands are the supposed progenitors of Finnic, you have a strange scenario where their main lineage (N-L550), is now more common among IE speakers than Finnics themselves.

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