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Thread: N1c in the Balts

  1. #601
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    Quote Originally Posted by parastais View Post
    This might hint something (Baltic_EST_IA_X04_1 is the most SWE_IA rich Estonian_IA, as we see both Latvians and Lithuanians have it around 10%, whereas only Latvians have average EST_IA). Latvians and Lithuanians also have same level of Baltic N-M2783.

    "sample": "Test1:Latvian",
    "fit": 1.0621,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 44.17,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 30.83,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 15.83,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_X04_1": 9.17,

    "sample": "Test2:Lithuanian",
    "fit": 1.6162,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 50.83,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 38.33,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_X04_1": 10.83,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 0,
    Might be worth trying with the Ingrian_IA samples instead of Estonia_IA too.


    Quote Originally Posted by etrusco View Post
    Here is a fresh new comment.
    Not yet made up my mind on the subject BTW

    https://adnaera.com/2019/05/19/unrav...netic-history/
    The issue with the idea of Bronze Age arctic movement of N1c is that there probably wasn't a Scotland_CA or Corded Ware-like like population near the Urals in the supposed Uralic homeland but as we see from the Sintashta outliers there likely was a WSHG-rich one around there. In fact the best two-way fit for earliest and easternmost Estonian N1c sample is about 80% Baltic Bronze Age and 20% Sintashta outliers in qpAdm.

    The fit is poor due to high population-specific drift in G25 but Khanties and other populations just east of the Urals also take Sintashta outliers on top of Evenk instead of Corded Ware or Scotland, so it may be as simple as something like the Sintashta outliers + Baltic_BA in the west and the same outliers + BHG in the east post expansion.

    "distance%=7.6306"

    Khanty

    Evenk,46.6
    RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o3,36
    RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o2,17.4
    Scotland_CA_EBA,0
    Corded_Ware_Baltic,0

    "distance%=7.2893"

    Nenets

    Evenk,64.8
    RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o3,30
    RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o2,5.2
    Corded_Ware_Baltic,0
    Scotland_CA_EBA,0

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  3. #602
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaikorth View Post
    Might be worth trying with the Ingrian_IA samples instead of Estonia_IA too.
    I did that and it works, Lithuanian fit even slightly improved. The "Baltic_EST_IA_X04_1" was Saaremaa one, 400 BCE, so it would be easy to explain its prominence in Balts as a maritime traders/whatever. But how to explain Ingrians, and why would they be more of a Lithuanian thing than Latvian?
    "sample": "Test1:Latvian",
    "fit": 1.0775,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 40,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 30,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 20.83,
    "RUS_Ingria_IA": 9.17

    "sample": "Test2:Lithuanian",
    "fit": 1.5536,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 47.5,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 28.33,
    "RUS_Ingria_IA": 24.17,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 0,

    With SWE_IA added, Lithuanians still got "Ingria":
    "sample": "Test2:Lithuanian",
    "fit": 1.5271,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 43.33,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 34.17,
    "RUS_Ingria_IA": 16.67,
    "SWE_IA": 5.83,

  4. #603
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    Hmm. But Ingrian_IA samples have very little of "Finnicness" or Estonian_IA-giness, they are actually R1a.
    "sample": "Test1:RUS_Ingria_IA",
    "fit": 2.4174,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 70.83,
    "SWE_IA": 16.67,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 6.67,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_0LS10_1": 3.33,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 2.5,

    I used both EST_IA normal and EST_IA the original immigrant, and they both together do not exceed 6%.

    Edit:
    Whereas the Saaremaa puika had even this one "Baltic_EST_IA_0LS10_1":
    "sample": "Test1:Baltic_EST_IA_-_X04_1",
    "fit": 2.4329,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 49.17,
    "SWE_IA": 32.5,
    "Baltic_EST_IA_0LS10_1": 18.33,
    Last edited by parastais; 05-19-2019 at 08:17 PM.

  5. #604
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    Quote Originally Posted by parastais View Post
    I did that and it works, Lithuanian fit even slightly improved. The "Baltic_EST_IA_X04_1" was Saaremaa one, 400 BCE, so it would be easy to explain its prominence in Balts as a maritime traders/whatever. But how to explain Ingrians, and why would they be more of a Lithuanian thing than Latvian?
    "sample": "Test1:Latvian",
    "fit": 1.0775,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 40,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 30,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 20.83,
    "RUS_Ingria_IA": 9.17

    "sample": "Test2:Lithuanian",
    "fit": 1.5536,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 47.5,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 28.33,
    "RUS_Ingria_IA": 24.17,
    "Baltic_EST_IA": 0,

    With SWE_IA added, Lithuanians still got "Ingria":
    "sample": "Test2:Lithuanian",
    "fit": 1.5271,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 43.33,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 34.17,
    "RUS_Ingria_IA": 16.67,
    "SWE_IA": 5.83,
    Those Ingrians have more Middle Neolithic ancestry (from some ancient Germanics?) so their fitting for Lithuanians might just be a side effect.

    I tested some Turkic West Siberians, unlike Samoyedics and Ugrics G25 likes to give them lots of Corded Ware-type stuff but no Sintashta_o3 (the most EHG-like outlier) and their East Siberian looks different too. Tomsk Tatars and Khanty are neighbours.

    "distance%=3.1208"
    Tatar_Tomsk

    Ulchi,43.2
    Corded_Ware_Baltic,33.6
    RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o2,16.8
    Scotland_CA_EBA,6.4
    Evenk,0
    RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o3,0

    "distance%=7.6306"
    Khanty

    Evenk,46.6
    RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o3,36
    RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o2,17.4
    Corded_Ware_Baltic,0
    Scotland_CA_EBA,0
    Ulchi,0


    Dolgans and Nganassans have similar eastern but different western profiles.

    "distance%=3.6852"

    Dolgan

    Evenk,84.8
    Corded_Ware_Baltic,12.2
    Ulchi,3
    RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o3,0

    "distance%=7.2203"

    Nganassan

    Evenk,95
    RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o3,5
    Ulchi,0
    Corded_Ware_Baltic,0
    Last edited by Shaikorth; 05-19-2019 at 09:52 PM.

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  7. #605
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    "sample": "Test1:RUS_Bolshoy_Oleni_Ostrov",
    "fit": 4.2887,
    "RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o3": 56.67,
    "Evenk": 34.17,
    "RUS_Mezhovskaya": 8.33,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 0.83,
    "RUS_Sintashta_MLBA": 0,

    "sample": "Test2:Baltic_EST_IA",
    "fit": 2.6406,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 68.33,
    "RUS_Sintashta_MLBA": 23.33,
    "RUS_Mezhovskaya": 7.5,
    "Evenk": 0.83,
    "RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o3": 0,

    "sample": "Test2:Baltic_EST_IA_-_0LS10_1",
    "fit": 4.1382,
    "Baltic_LVA_BA": 67.5,
    "RUS_Mezhovskaya": 15,
    "RUS_Sintashta_MLBA": 12.5,
    "RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o3": 3.33,
    "Evenk": 1.67,

    Mezhovskaya seems to be the link between BOO and Est_IA. Evenk-ish and Sintashta_o3-ish is largely missing from EST_IA (average, yet first migrant has some trace). Sintashta itself seems to be present for EST_IA (even prefered to SWE_IA for the first migrant).

    This is Sintashta_o3:
    "sample": "Test1:RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o3",
    "fit": 1.9323,
    "KAZ_Botai": 39.17,
    "RUS_Khvalynsk_En": 35.83,
    "RUS_Karelia_HG": 25,
    "Baltic_LVA_MN": 0,
    "RUS_Sintashta_MLBA": 0,

    And Mezhovskaya:
    "sample": "Test2:RUS_Mezhovskaya",
    "fit": 2.5143,
    "RUS_Sintashta_MLBA": 67.5,
    "RUS_Khvalynsk_En": 12.5,
    "Evenk": 11.67,
    "KAZ_Botai": 8.33,
    "RUS_Karelia_HG": 0,

    Hm, Sintashta_o3 worked well even without Evenks, but without Evenk (alternatively Nganassan) Mezhovskaya is not giving any good fits (better than 6 anyway).

    What was the cultural background of Mezhovskaya sample anyway?

    Edit: with Locomotiv I could drop Evenks, but suddenly MLBA_o3 is used now:
    "sample": "Test2:RUS_Mezhovskaya",
    "fit": 2.5952,
    "RUS_Sintashta_MLBA": 69.17,
    "RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o3": 15.83,
    "RUS_Lokomotiv_N": 14.17,
    "Baltic_LVA_MN": 0.83,
    Last edited by parastais; 05-26-2019 at 05:00 PM.

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  9. #606
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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mezhovskaya_culture
    "The ancestors of the Mezhovskaya culture's were the people of the Cherkaskul culture with the participation of the people of the Tobol taiga, with traditions and ceramics of the steppe zone of the Ural and Kazakhstan (Andronovo culture), especially the Sargarino-Alexis culture.[3]

    The Mezhovskaya culture reflects the further stages of development of the Ugric community in active contact with the Indo-Iranian population of the Ural steppes.[4]"
    I guess "with the participation of Tobol Taiga" is why you can't model them without Evenk-ish. And "in active contact with Indo-Iranian" is why their Sintashta is so high.

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  13. #608
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    Both this study and YFull seem to support a model where the N-Z1936 sub lineage N-B535, leading fex to many Finnic speakers, moves from Oka region via Kostroma and Vologda areas towards Gulf of Finland. The intermediary group in the middle is nowadays represented by Vepsians (and nowadays also by generic Central Russians, of course). I'd guess that N-Z1936 followed the Kama-Volga route on it's way from the Ural area, just as VL-29 did.

    Some people such as M.M. seem to be fascinated by the apparent map connection of N-B535 and N-B539 via Arctic Ocean. This is anachronistic, as for instance N-B535 represented by Finnic speakers moved to Archangel region from places next to Ladoga and as explained above the phylogenic steps of the lineage can be found in Upper Volga, not in Kola Peninsula.

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  15. #609
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huck Finn View Post
    Some people such as M.M. seem to be fascinated by the apparent map connection of N-B535 and N-B539 via Arctic Ocean. This is anachronistic, as for instance N-B535 represented by Finnic speakers moved to Archangel region from places next to Ladoga and as explained above the phylogenic steps of the lineage can be found in Upper Volga, not in Kola Peninsula.
    The chances that the Arctic Ocean link theory that Carlos and M.M, are pushing will be validated by ancient DNA are nil.

    This has more to do with psychology than what the data are really showing. I've learnt over the years that once some people take a very strong position on an issue early on, they'll do everything they can to explain to themselves that they were right, and there's nothing anyone can do to talk sense into them.

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  17. #610
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    Quote Originally Posted by Generalissimo View Post
    The chances that the Arctic Ocean link theory that Carlos and M.M, are pushing will be validated by ancient DNA are nil.
    At least related to N-Z1936 leading to Finnics and Saami it seems almost impossible, as the founder of the relevant sublineage leading to those groups is as said modern Veps/Central Russian. It seems that M.M. is very eager to explain the genetic east of Finnic speakers by paternal N, but it also seems that he's neglecting the original Sintashta_o type of Siberian, most probably indeed related to paternal N and concentrating on later influences, not that much related to paternal N.

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