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Thread: N1c in the Balts

  1. #691
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    Quote Originally Posted by parastais View Post
    Wikipedia says there is only 5% R1a in Finns, but I had seen also other numbers.
    Is 5% reliable?
    But
    I've seen numbers around 7-8% more often.

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  3. #692
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    I just realized that the Iron Age Oland sample was added to G25. For some reason I thought he was too low quality. Looks like a Swede, but definitely pulled towards Finns.

    Vahaduo Global 25 North Europe PCA.png

     
    VK2020_SWE_Oland_IA:VK579,0.110408,0.123895,0.0852 29,0.070414,0.035083,0.02259,0.01034,0.005769,-0.003886,-0.012939,-0.006983,0.007343,-0.005054,0.006881,0.010858,0.005967,-0.023078,0.004307,0.00264,-0.001751,0.011605,0.008656,-0.008874,0.014701,-0.002155


    Edit:
    With Kowalewko Goths
    Vahaduo Global 25 North Europe PCA (1).png
    Last edited by Zelto; 06-17-2021 at 08:25 PM.

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  5. #693
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    It's difficult to say whether N1c in Balts is related to Migration Era back migration but apparently some people really moved from the more southern areas into Lithuania:

    "Prestigious artefacts could be assumed to have come to Lithuania together with their owners who kept penetrating further into the Northern European forest belt after Attila’s Empire (Attila, c. 406–453) had collapsed after the battle on the Nedao River. Evidently, small multiethnic groups of aliens that could have included Heruls, Gepids, and Ostrogoths, reached east Lithuania and managed to get established there.

    ...Thus, the migrants who had come to east Lithuania, in the course of three or four generations blended among the local people, just as silver and gold artefacts disappeared."

    Audronė Bliujienė, Valdas Steponaitis, Egidijus Šatavičius and Gytis Grižas

    CONCENTRATION_OF_AUTHORITY_AND_POWER_IN_EAST_LITHU ANIA_BETWEEN_TAURAGNAS_LAKE_AND_THE_MIDDLE_REACHES _OF_THE_ZEIMENA_RIVER_DURING_THE_MIGRATION_PERIOD

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  7. #694
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    Quote Originally Posted by ph2ter View Post
    This is some great stats for L1025, showing possible times of growth and bottlenecks. This is for L1025.

  8. #695
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    Expansion ~ 500 BCE. Then further expansion around 200 BCE. Then big one 100 BCE and further 50 AD.
    Then some (lowish) regular growth until 500 AD. Somewhat bigger regular growth after 500 AD.
    Some bottleneck event ca 800 AD. Maybe.
    Then return to slow steady growth.
    Less growth ca 1200-1300, likely due to Northern Crusades. Then another drop 1500-1600 (not sure?).

  9. #696
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    Same for L550.

    Quote Originally Posted by ph2ter View Post
    I don't know what is L1925.


  10. #697
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    If we compare both of those, we may make following conclusions:
    ~ 800 BCE: L550 gets popular
    ~ 500 BCE: second L550 expansion, birth of L1025 among others
    ~ 100 BCE: third L550 expansion (6 new L1025 clades, 3 new L550 clades)
    ~ 100 AD: great L1025 expansion (6 new), independent from L550 (0 new). After this point L1025 destiny is no more linked to L550.
    100-700: some growth
    ~ 750 AD: 7 new L1025 clades, no new L550
    ~ 800 AD: 0 new L1025, 5 new L550
    ~ 850 AD: 4 new L1025, 0 new L550
    ~ 900 AD: 4 new L1025, 0 new L550
    Interesting 2 centuries, might be just coincidence, but negative correlation is interesting. Might be reading too much since TMRCAs are just estimates.

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  12. #698
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    Quote Originally Posted by parastais View Post
    If we compare both of those, we may make following conclusions:
    ~ 800 BCE: L550 gets popular
    ~ 500 BCE: second L550 expansion, birth of L1025 among others
    ~ 100 BCE: third L550 expansion (6 new L1025 clades, 3 new L550 clades)
    ~ 100 AD: great L1025 expansion (6 new), independent from L550 (0 new). After this point L1025 destiny is no more linked to L550.
    100-700: some growth
    ~ 750 AD: 7 new L1025 clades, no new L550
    ~ 800 AD: 0 new L1025, 5 new L550
    ~ 850 AD: 4 new L1025, 0 new L550
    ~ 900 AD: 4 new L1025, 0 new L550
    Interesting 2 centuries, might be just coincidence, but negative correlation is interesting. Might be reading too much since TMRCAs are just estimates.
    I tried to connect this to archeological phenomenon.

    800BCE: N-L550 initially migrates to coastal Estonia/proliferates with the earliest Tarand builders.

    500BCE: N-L550 subclades are in the process of spreading across the North/East Baltic with early-Tarands (Eastern Sweden, SW Finland Courland and Coastal Estonia). Sample VII4 might already be N-L1025+ N-Y4706.

    100BCE-100AD: A few interesting things happen... early-Tarands disappear outside of Estonia, where they are replaced by typical-Tarand graves (later appearing in SW Finland). At this point, it seems like close contact and/or a common ethnic identity disappeared from the areas once inhabited by the early-Tarand builders. Typical-Tarands in Estonia are more insular, now inhabiting inland areas.

    Around this time, N-L1025 probably experienced its founders effect in ethnic Balts, I can't say exactly from where it arrived, other than an area previously inhabited by early-Tarands.

    100AD-Present: N-L1025 was spread across Eastern Europe by Iron-Age-Medieval Baltic tribes and later, the PLC.

    N-L550 and some N-L1025 subclades are spread by Iron-Viking age Swedes, some Finnic tribes may have also contributed.

    Something happened in Estonia, which wiped out native N-L550/N-L1025 branches. Probably quite recently, the two medieval Estonian samples were N-L550*.

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  14. #699
    Quote Originally Posted by parastais View Post
    Expansion ~ 500 BCE. Then further expansion around 200 BCE. Then big one 100 BCE and further 50 AD.
    Then some (lowish) regular growth until 500 AD. Somewhat bigger regular growth after 500 AD.
    Some bottleneck event ca 800 AD. Maybe.
    Then return to slow steady growth.
    Less growth ca 1200-1300, likely due to Northern Crusades. Then another drop 1500-1600 (not sure?).
    The last one could be Great Northern War(1700) with Plague outbreak, that completely devastated region

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  16. #700
    Quote Originally Posted by Zelto View Post
    I tried to connect this to archeological phenomenon.

    800BCE: N-L550 initially migrates to coastal Estonia/proliferates with the earliest Tarand builders.

    500BCE: N-L550 subclades are in the process of spreading across the North/East Baltic with early-Tarands (Eastern Sweden, SW Finland Courland and Coastal Estonia). Sample VII4 might already be N-L1025+ N-Y4706.

    100BCE-100AD: A few interesting things happen... early-Tarands disappear outside of Estonia, where they are replaced by typical-Tarand graves (later appearing in SW Finland). At this point, it seems like close contact and/or a common ethnic identity disappeared from the areas once inhabited by the early-Tarand builders. Typical-Tarands in Estonia are more insular, now inhabiting inland areas.

    Around this time, N-L1025 probably experienced its founders effect in ethnic Balts, I can't say exactly from where it arrived, other than an area previously inhabited by early-Tarands.

    100AD-Present: N-L1025 was spread across Eastern Europe by Iron-Age-Medieval Baltic tribes and later, the PLC.

    N-L550 and some N-L1025 subclades are spread by Iron-Viking age Swedes, some Finnic tribes may have also contributed.

    Something happened in Estonia, which wiped out native N-L550/N-L1025 branches. Probably quite recently, the two medieval Estonian samples were N-L550*.
    Most populous and earliest branch of L550 is L1025. There are roughly 5 million people of L1025 people - most of them(by numbers - not by share) are living in Lithuania, followed by... Ukraine, Poland, Belarussia and Russia, Latvia and then Estonia and Scandinavia. Roughly 50% of L1025 nowadays are speaking Slavic language.
    There are even more L1025 living in US than in Estonia, so to make it even clearer - Estonia is more like a fringe territory to both L1025 and other branches of L550. And that rules out completely any relation to Tarand graves to L550, which IMO are local phenomenon - most probably it has something to do with final remnants of Kunda culture, than to Uralic people whatsoever, because none of that is relatable to other Finnic people - and certainly not to Latvians or Lithuanians as major carriers of L1025.


    Y-dna N share of L1025 in Estonians is ~ 25%, in Latvians it is 70%, and in Lithuanians it reaches highest numbers of all people - more than 90% of y-dna N(only Ukrainian, Polish and Belarussian y-dna N has similarly high shares of L1025 in regards to other N-ydna). With almost 99% certainity Estonian L1025 source is from Latvians.

    Other clades of L550 are insignificantly less numerous than L1025 - most of them are speaking Swedish(and not Finnish) and their ancestors were vikings - also not related to Finnic people at all.



    So, looking on clades, VL29(N1a1a1a1a1a) seems to stand out as Uralics, that branched off earlier from other Uralic clades by mingling with Baltic speakers and assimilating into them by accepting their farming techniques. It has been very very very long time ago and they have been lost to rest of Uralic speaking people until modern genetics came along and gave this shocking realization, that some of non Uralic speakers have Uralic ancestry from paternal side.

    Even if VL29 is present among Finnish, it is sister clade Z1936(N1a1a1a1a2) that is main clade that is present in Finnish and Karelian y-dna N and that is responsible for spreading Finnic languages(also Estonian). So, we are looking at different branches of N-tat migrations and at least one of them was spreading without Uralic identity, that for some reason is so important to some modern people...


    Origins of L1025/L550
    There is relation of Latvians and Lithuanians through L1025. Both of them arrived from east - first known state with name Lithuania was established in Naugardukas(Navahrudok, Belarus) in Jatwingian(!) lands. So, the earliest records of Lithuanians are about them occupying lands of other Baltic tribes. Latgalian lands at the same time period was spreading east of modern Latvia up the river of Daugava. It might be possible that L1025 origins was on the upper Daugava river around Polatsk in Belarus. And my speculation is that L550 origins might have been in Smolensk area, where y-dna N was present at least 4000 or more years and where during various historical periods that area was populated by Baltic cultures, that originated from Dnieper river basin and the ones that spread to west did not had y-dna N. It appears among other Balts only with arrival of Latvian-Lithuanian tribes.
    Last edited by Coldmountains; 07-22-2021 at 09:43 PM. Reason: Editing out rude phrase

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